CNBC Halftime Report – "The Best Plays Post-Powell" (August 25, 2025)

Episode Overview

The August 25, 2025 episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report, hosted by Scott Wapner, centers on how investors should approach the markets following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s much-discussed "pivot" at Jackson Hole. The panel—Joe Terranova, Shannon Saccocia, Jim Lebenthal ("Farmer Jim"), and Steve Weiss—debate whether the recent market rally is sustainable, which sectors have the most upside, and the risks ahead. The show also breaks news on the government's stake in Intel, examines implications for free market capitalism, assesses the AI bubble debate, and spotlights moves in key stocks and ETFs.

1. Market Setup Post-Jackson Hole

Optimism Among Bulls and Key Numbers

• Markets were positive following Powell’s dovish tone at Jackson Hole.
• S&P 500 remains above 6,400, with several firms (Jefferies, UBS, Ed Yardeni) forecasting year-end targets of 6,600 – 6,800.
  • Quote: "Powell might have saved the day for this rally in some minds on Wall Street." (Scott Wapner, 05:45)

Joe Terranova’s Take

• The market setup before Powell’s speech set the stage for a bullish response, especially after a spike in volatility leading into Friday’s session.
• Momentum could "broaden out" to small caps and international markets, not just tech.
  • Quote: "If you could carry forward the momentum that was created off of the chairman's speech in places like small caps... can you carry that momentum forward?" (Joe Terranova, 02:33)

Jim Lebenthal’s View

• Previously called for a 5-7% pullback and cashed in some positions—a move that hasn’t paid off so far.
• Q2 earnings outperformed; Q3 estimates are steady—not being revised downward as in previous quarters.
• Possible September downside if no new good news materializes (earnings, trade deals). Probability of a September rate cut is now 85%.
  • Quote: "September is kind of a desert. I don't know what other good news can come in." (Jim Lebenthal, 04:26)
  • "In the long run, I, I think the budget bill is stimulative. I think earnings continue to grow... but you got a treacherous desert in September." (06:00)

Steve Weiss’ Perspective

• Warns when everyone is bullish and VIX (volatility) is low, something could break.
• Remains invested but cautious, looking for specific opportunities (e.g., Dick’s Sporting Goods).
• Believes market has already priced in a lot of good news.
  • Quote: "So when everybody lines up on one side, that should give you some, some reason to be concerned. However, I'm like everybody else, you know, I've stayed invested." (Steve Weiss, 06:40)

Shannon Saccocia on "Broadening":

• If the Fed doesn’t cut, the "broadening" (i.e., gains beyond tech/growth stocks) likely disappears; the rally would revert to tech and communications.
  • Quote: "The broadening trade that exists I do think is predicated on this rate cut expectation for September... the sentiment is behind it." (Shannon Saccocia, 08:41)

2. Intel and Government Stakes: A Brave New World? (09:11–18:09)

White House Breaking News

• The U.S. government is taking a 10% equity stake in Intel, possibly signaling more "industrial policy" interventions.
  • Quote: "He hopes he's going to have many more cases like it... It's not a shame. It's called business." (White House, 09:54)

Panel Reaction

• Steve Weiss: Criticizes the move as "hostage ransom" that undercuts the notion of free markets. Warns of unintended consequences and potential for government picking corporate "winners."
  • "This is not what America is built on... This just shouldn't be. Republicans agree with that. Democrats agree... It's just the wrong thing." (Steve Weiss, 11:03)
• Jim Lebenthal: Cites concerns about "unintended consequences" and "slippery slope," comparing the move to broader activist investor strategies—but with government power.
• Joe Terranova: From an investor perspective, government backing could be a bullish signal for Intel; but warns it changes the competitive landscape.
  • "If you're looking at the stock today to purchase it, you're feeling a lot better about buying it than you did three months ago because the administration is going to be behind it." (Joe Terranova, 14:30)
• Shannon: Questions whether this benefits or distorts other competitors and sectors (healthcare cited as a possible spillover).

3. The "Broadening Trade" and Sector Momentum (18:09–24:18)

• Post-Powell, previously lagging sectors (small caps, homebuilders, airlines, regional banks, healthcare, biotech) are outpacing big tech; ETF and strategists upgrading these groups.
• Jim: Enjoys the "catch-up" in non-tech names—calls out Wynn Resorts, airlines, Delta, Cleveland-Cliffs—while maintaining his previous caution on near-term pullbacks.
• Joe: Notes sentiment on small caps remains extremely skeptical. Positions are being rebuilt favoring these areas.

4. Mega Cap Tech, AI, and Bubble Fears (22:03–27:57)

• Attention is turning to possible "capex bubble" in AI infrastructure spend, with recent underperformance in select mega caps like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon.
• Joe: Argues fundamentals remain strong, with reallocation (not deterioration) driving recent price shifts.
  • "I think more than anything else the reason why you're seeing Meta and Microsoft... underperforming recently is because capital is going away from there. It's going into things like the equal weight S and P." (Joe, 23:42)
• Steve & Jim: Debate whether AI is a bubble. Weiss points to aggressive startup valuations; Jim notes Nvidia’s strong earnings but cautions that the stock often runs up before earnings and then sells off.
  • "I don't think the technology is a bubble." (Steve Weiss, 26:35)
• Shannon: "We're only in the second inning of the first stage of this [AI cycle]... this is going to expand to all of the other industries and sectors." (Shannon Saccocia, 27:42)

5. Netflix and the Streamers (29:40–33:56)

• Netflix gets its first major box office win with "K Pop Demon Hunters," reflecting continued innovation and risk-taking.
  • Shannon: Applauds Netflix’s low-budget, nimble approach to testing content in theaters and broadening its demographic reach.
    • "I think this is indicative of their continued innovation in terms of their business model." (Shannon Saccocia, 30:01)
  • Steve: Netflix excels at continually adding value and maintaining brand buzz.
    • "They continue to brand and they continue to do quite well... Not only to attract subscribers but also to retain them." (Steve Weiss, 30:55)
  • Joe: Streaming remains a secular trend; Netflix stands out by adding subscribers without costly churn (also positive on Ulta Beauty, Spotify for similar execution).
• Wells Fargo and BTIG: Raise targets and reiterate bullish stances on Netflix.

6. Sector Rotation: Banks and Financials (39:40–42:36)

• Citi adds BlackRock, Cap One, Charles Schwab to "thematic 30" list to round out portfolios with value and diversification away from just "growth."
  • Jim: Likes BlackRock’s traditional and private markets exposure, even at 22x forward earnings.
  • Joe: Has shifted from financial sector underweight to overweight since Jan 2024. Sees broad-based momentum, adding Cboe, Trade Web, Broadridge.
    • "For some reason the momentum continues to swell in the financial sector and to date you've got been rewarded for it." (Joe, 41:19)
  • Shannon: Expects further margin improvement and efficiency, reminiscent of pre-GFC profit margins.

7. Special Segments, ETF Edge, Other News

ETF Edge (36:56–39:40)

• Energy infrastructure MLP ETFs (e.g., Alerian MLP ETF) offer high yield and exposure to pipeline operators; growing focus on electricity demand, AI data centers’ energy needs. - "Investors are sort of waking up to the evolution... of the definition of energy beyond simply crude oil and natural gas." (Paul Baiocki, 38:35)

Breaking: Buffett NOT Bidding on CSX (44:07–49:38)

• Becky Quick shares Warren Buffett’s exclusive comments: Berkshire Hathaway plans partnership cooperation with CSX, but will NOT be bidding for CSX or any other railroad. - "Berkshire Hathaway is not in the market to buy a train company right now. That is what I heard from Mr. Buffett himself." (Becky Quick, 44:51)
• Removes a support “bid” from CSX’s stock, which falls on the news.

8. Looking Ahead: Nvidia Earnings and Market Stakes (49:48–50:56)

• Nvidia earnings on Wednesday seen as a key test for the "broadening" thesis; bar is set very high after a 38% three-month rally.
  • Joe: If Nvidia disappoints, other sectors could gain as money moves out of mega cap tech.
  • Jim: Cautions that even great NVDA quarters have often led to weak post-earnings price action.
  • Scott & Steve: Note that when stocks run up into earnings, the hurdle for positive surprises rises; bubbles only called in hindsight.

9. Final Trades (50:58–51:36)

• Steve Weiss: Google – "It's been stealth, but it keeps moving up every day and I think it got their stuff together."
• Jim ("Farmer Jim") Lebenthal: Lockheed Martin – "Look for more news coming out of the Golden Dome project."
• Shannon Saccocia: Telecom Media – "Just some opportunities in communication services perhaps outside those big heavies." (Also still bullish on Netflix)
• Joe Terranova: Oil & Gas Refiners – "Tough to invest in traditional oil and gas right now, but you can look at the refiners. It looks to me like they're turning back up higher."

Notable Quotes & Moments

• "September is kind of a desert. I don't know what other good news can come in." (Jim Lebenthal, 04:26)
• "This is not what America is built on... This just shouldn't be." (Weiss on government stake in Intel, 11:03)
• "I think this is indicative of [Netflix's] continued innovation." (Shannon Saccocia, 30:01)
• "If Nvidia and I agree with you in your remarks before, I think the bar is incredibly high for Nvidia." (Joe Terranova, 49:52)
• "We're only in the second inning of the first stage of this [AI cycle]..." (Shannon Saccocia, 27:42)
• "Berkshire Hathaway is not in the market to buy a train company right now. That is what I heard from Mr. Buffett himself." (Becky Quick, 44:51)

Key Timestamps

• 01:19 – Powell Effect and Market Reaction
• 09:11 – Breaking: U.S. Government takes Intel stake
• 18:09 – Sectors Leading Post-Powell (Small Caps, Homebuilders, etc.)
• 22:03 – Mega Cap Tech, Capex Bubble Concerns, AI Cycle
• 29:40 – Netflix Box Office Win Discussion
• 36:56 – ETF Edge: Energy Infrastructure, Pipelines, AI-driven Demand
• 39:40 – Banks/Financials Upswing and Rotations
• 44:07 – Buffett News: No CSX Bid, Market Implications
• 49:48 – Nvidia Earnings Sneak Preview and Market Stakes
• 50:58 – Rapid-Fire Final Trades

Summary Tone

The discussion is lively, data-driven, and marked by the panel’s trademark blend of deep market insight, skepticism of herd mentality, and occasional humor.

For further details and actionable quotes, refer to the timestamps above.