Halftime Report – The Best Stock Strategies Following a Rate Cut

Date: September 22, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner (CNBC)
Investment Committee: Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Surat Sethi, Bryn Talkington
Special Segment: Breaking news with Jensen Huang (Nvidia), Sam Altman & Greg Brockman (OpenAI), John Fortt reporting

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the market’s reaction to the recent Fed rate cut, uncovering the best stock strategies amid record-high valuations, a robust AI-driven bull market, and an explosive breaking news segment featuring Nvidia’s $100 billion investment into OpenAI. The show unpacks emerging implications for mega-cap tech, financials, the power grid, and a range of sectors linked to AI infrastructure, while debating cash-on-sidelines narratives and portfolio positioning.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Sentiment After the Fed Rate Cut

• Consensus: The panel broadly agrees it’s a bull market, but valuations are high. The advice is not to “fight” the upward market trend, but also not to “chase” at elevated levels.

  • Scott Wapner: "Don't fight it, don't chase it. That's the call today from one well known market voice. ... It's a bull market. The primary trend is higher." (01:15)
  • Joe Terranova: “If you’re well positioned, if you’re long like we all are … the work is going to be done for you as the calendar approaches the end of the year. ... The Mag 7 – Tesla and Apple – still have room for upside.” (02:26)

• Performance Chase into Year-End:
  Many managers may be forced to “chase” performance if underexposed to leaders, especially as a strong AI theme continues.

2. Corporate Buybacks as a Market Tailwind

• Stephanie Link: Notes unprecedented buybacks: “S&P companies have announced buybacks at an unprecedented rate. Close to $960 billion committed year to date, significantly surpassing the three year average of $644 billion.” (04:38)
• Big Bank Buybacks: The six largest banks have $192 billion left in authorized buybacks. (04:10)
• Uber’s Buyback: $20 billion buyback equaling 9.5% of the float. (05:25)
• Setup for Earnings Season: Strong buybacks and expected margin expansion ahead of October earnings.

3. Debate: Cash on the Sidelines

• There’s $7-7.7 trillion parked in money market funds. Some expect this to “come in” as rates fall—others argue much of this is structural, not latent buying power.
  • Stephanie Link: “I do think, by the way, the $7 trillion of cash in money markets will come. Not all, but some of it will come and will be a tailwind as interest rates come down.” (05:51)
  • Surat Sethi: Pushes back: “That cash has been sitting on the sidelines since the great financial crisis. … I really think it’s about profit margin expansion.” (06:54)
• Yield Impact: As money market rates drop, some funds may seek stronger equity returns.

4. Rates, Housing, and Market Rotations

• Rates Post-Cut: 10-Year at ~3.98%, 30-year fixed mortgage rates down 100 basis points YTD (08:24, 08:29)
• Homebuilders: Pulled back after a big run despite lower rates. “They were up 30% from the second quarter earnings report.” (08:36)
• Valuations & Skepticism: Some investors perceive stocks as expensive and are willing to wait for better opportunities. (08:52)

5. Breaking News: Nvidia’s $100 Billion Investment into OpenAI

[Segment Begins: 09:45]

a. Announcement & Scale

• Jensen Huang, Nvidia: “This is the largest computing project in history … $100 billion investment, 10 gigawatts of capacity over several years. ... It’s about building AI infrastructure that enables AI to go from the labs into the world. … This is about the AI industrial revolution.” (10:24, 10:54)
• Sam Altman, OpenAI: “This is the fuel that we need to drive improvement, to drive better models, to drive revenue, everything. … The compute constraints that the whole industry has been in, our company in particular, have been terrible.” (11:27, 12:02)

b. Demand and Growth

• Greg Brockman, OpenAI: “ChatGPT has grown from nothing to 700-800 million users, faster than any product in history. ... This deal is for a billion times more computational power than we started with in 2016.” (13:14)

c. Ecosystem and Strategic Significance

• Nvidia is creating an additive, not substitutive, project for global AI. “This is additive to everything that has been announced and contracted.” (18:14)
• US aims to have the “world built on the American tech stack: chips, infrastructure, models, and applications.” (19:36)

Notable Quote:

• Sam Altman: “The magnitude of the scale of this project, $100 billion is a small dent in it. … The real deal. The stuff that will come out of this super brain will be remarkable in a way I think we don’t really know how to think about yet.” (23:13, 24:20)
• Greg Brockman: “You really want every person to be able to have their own dedicated GPU ... we’re three orders of magnitude off of where we need to be.” (24:23)

d. Infrastructure Challenges

• Concerns about power grid constraints.
  • Bryn Talkington: “If you think about 10 gigawatts in electricity terms, that would power about an 8 million person-city. ... Realistically, this probably takes five to six years to actually play out.” (36:07)

e. Broader Impact and Opportunities

• Nvidia stock jumps to new record highs.
• Ripple effects for chipmakers, hyperscalers, industrials, data center REITs, and cybersecurity names.
  • Stephanie Link: “I don’t think this is a bubble because so many different industries are being impacted from this. ... Let’s just throw in cybersecurity because AI is not safe and you’re going to need cybersecurity companies.” (39:38)

6. Investing Playbook in the Wake of the News

• Mega Cap Tech:

  • The AI leader cohort still dominates, but the narrative is broadening to financials, utilities, industrials, and custom chipmakers.
  • Bryn Talkington: “If you don’t know how to play it, you can just buy the Qs ... I just think it’s a moment in time that we’ll all look back on.” (36:07)

• Buyback-Driven Financials and Industrials:

  • Big banks, custom chipmakers (Broadcom/ASIC adoption), and industrial firms set to benefit from sustained CapEx cycles.

• Data Center & Power Grid Infrastructure:

  • Utilities (Constellation, Vistra), data center beneficiaries (Super Micro), and grid-upgraders.

• Cybersecurity:

  • Names like Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Fortinet, and Microsoft cited as critical AI picks.

• Alternative Assets:

  • Gold: Under-owned, becoming a “new ballast” for portfolios as rates shift and ETF flows rise. (49:45)
  • Trend-following, long/short, and currency strategies as further alternatives.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Don’t fight it, don’t chase it. … I’m not going to stand in front of this market, not with this Fed, not with fighting.” – Scott Wapner (01:15)
• “If you look at the Mag 7, there’s only two names that haven’t made all-time highs in 2025: Tesla and Apple. … Very strong momentum in those two names.” – Joe Terranova (02:26)
• “Earnings season with the big banks … they still have $192 billion left to buy back stocks.” – Stephanie Link (04:10)
• “$960 billion committed YTD [on buybacks] … does that give you an idea?” – Scott Wapner (04:38)
• “If you believe in this whole [AI] thing, you have to have the data centers, but you need a grid. That’s a big part of it.” – Stephanie Link (38:58)
• "The magnitude of the scale of this project, $100 billion is a small dent in it. … This is the real deal." – Sam Altman (24:20)
• “We're literally going to connect intelligence to every application, to every use case, to every device. … And this is the first 10 gigawatts, I assure you of that.” – Jensen Huang (29:37)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Topic / Segment | |------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:02 | Rate cut aftermath, “Don’t fight it, don’t chase it,” positioning debate | | 03:57 | Fed cutting into a strong economy, role of buybacks, setup into Q4 | | 05:25 | Uber buyback, big bank buybacks, buybacks as next leg of the rally | | 06:02 | Debate: Will “cash on the sidelines” enter the market? Money market fund flows | | 08:24 | Rates discussion, homebuilder pullback | | 09:45 | BREAKING: Nvidia $100B OpenAI investment segment with Huang, Altman, Brockman | | 13:14 | ChatGPT’s growth & compute demand; new project scale | | 18:14 | Nvidia: The project is additive, not cannibalizing other work | | 23:13 | “$100 billion is a small dent” – transformative vision for AI, global impact | | 36:07 | Bryn Talkington on electricity/power grid constraints for AI-scale | | 39:38 | Broader AI beneficiaries: cybersecurity, industrials, etc. | | 41:30 | Market concentration risk, broadening trade debate | | 49:45 | ETF Edge: Under-allocation to gold, alternatives in portfolio construction |

Additional Stock-Specific Commentary

• IonQ Trim (Quantum Computing): Bryn trimmed after an 80% one-month run. “Once again, this is a flyer … when it’s up this much, I’m just going to take profits and I’ll wait when it comes back down.” (45:23)
• Oracle: Long-term holding, trimmed some gains. Not as near-term dynamic as Nvidia, but part of the AI buildout. (37:14)
• GE Aerospace: Up 79% YTD, strong free cash flow, would hold but not add at current levels. (46:57)
• Autodesk: Wait for earnings for validation, “getting a little bit stretched on the upside.” (47:54)
• Broadcom, Utilities, Cybersecurity: All cited as strong ways to play AI’s ecosystem without chasing tech alone.

Closing Takeaways

• Mega cap tech & AI infrastructure are driving the bull market, but broad AI ecosystem opportunities (industrials, utilities, financials) offer multiple ways to play.
• Buyback activity and margin expansion are providing additional market support.
• The Nvidia/OpenAI investment marks a historic milestone in scale and ambition for global AI infrastructure—seen as only the beginning.
• Portfolio managers urged to be long, not to “fight” the trend, but to remain selective and look for tactical entry points, especially as earnings season and further announcements approach.
• Alternative assets like gold and alternatives funds gaining appeal as potential diversifiers amid high valuations and sector concentrations.

For deeper dives on ETF flows, alternative asset trends, and gold, visit ETF Edge (49:45). Further market and investment committee analysis will continue throughout the earnings season.