The Biggest IPO Ever: SpaceX 6/12/26

Summary

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Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: The Biggest IPO Ever: SpaceX

Date: June 12, 2026

Host: Scott Wapner (CNBC)
Guests: Brad Gerstner (Altimeter Capital), Stephanie Link, Malcolm Etheridge, Rob Sechan

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Overview

This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report was dedicated to the historic IPO of SpaceX, which debuted as the largest IPO ever. Host Scott Wapner and a panel of top investors broke down the event’s market significance, SpaceX’s valuation, business verticals, and the broader implications for technology investing and American innovation. The discussion ranged from fundamental company drivers (AI, space launch, Starlink) to valuation concerns, index inclusion, and the vision behind Elon Musk’s leadership. Throughout, the tone blended excitement, skepticism, and deep financial insight, with notable emphasis on innovation, risk-taking, and future growth.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Historical Context and Market Impact

• IPO Reception:

  • SpaceX opened with a 16% gain, quickly rising to >25% on the day ([01:00]-[48:01]).
  • Regarded as a "momentous day" both for the company and for America’s revived leadership in space tech ([01:42], Brad Gerstner).

• Valuation Metrics:

  • Discussed $1.7+ trillion market cap at IPO, with targets for future scale:
    • Morgan Stanley: $3.4 trillion in revenue by 2040 ([02:35], Wapner).
    • Current focus: $160 billion in revenue expected by 2028 ([03:02], Gerstner).
  • Much of the valuation now hinges on AI/hyperscaler business rather than traditional space operations ([08:58], Sechan).

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2. SpaceX: From Rockets to Hyperscaler & AI Compute

• Transformation Story:

  • SpaceX has rapidly pivoted towards becoming an AI hyperscaler, moving from "not in the game to $27 billion of hyperscaler revenue in six weeks,” due to deals with Anthropic and Google ([03:02], Gerstner).
  • “Jensen [Huang, Nvidia CEO] said they did in 100 days what took others 2–3 years" in building out data centers ([03:02], Gerstner).

• Optionality Across Verticals:

  • Panelists highlighted multiple vectors for success: launch, Starlink (satellite connectivity), data centers, and AI ([04:52], [06:04], Etheridge; [13:20], Link).
  • “A launch company wrapped in a telecommunications company wrapped in a hyperscaler. Near zero space launch cost creates one of the widest moats in history.” ([13:45], Wapner, quoting Wolfe Research).

• Cursor Acquisition:

  • SpaceX’s acquisition of Cursor, a leading AI lab, could strengthen its position to build frontier AI capabilities ([04:52], [05:53], Gerstner).

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3. Valuation, Risk, and Retail Investor Considerations

• Valuation Cautions:

  • Debate over whether current multiples are justified with so much growth priced in. Retail investors warned: “not a get rich quick scheme,” but a potential long-term winner ([04:52], [16:01], Gerstner; [06:04], Etheridge).
  • “You're paying the valuation you are today on the massive bet that people are making for the future... You’re obviously making some degree of a leap of faith.” ([16:38], Wapner).

• Retail Participation & IPO Restrictions:

  • Some major brokerages imposed restrictions on flipping IPO allocations; panelists noted this, warning retail traders against trying to day-trade SpaceX’s debut ([31:12], Sechan; [33:01], Etheridge).
  • “If you want to own it for a year or two years, I think you’re going to do really well.” ([04:52], Gerstner).

• Lockups, Index Inclusion, and Supply/Demand:

  • Major underwriters' lockup will end in the coming months, eventually introducing more supply ([08:07], Link).
  • “In 15 days you’re going to see $20–30 billion of demand roll into the market as the index funds start buying the security.” ([18:36], Gerstner).

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4. Leadership, Vision, and Company Culture

• Elon Musk’s Central Role:

  • Strong consensus: Much of the appeal and risk in SpaceX is Musk himself.
  • “If you want to bet one company on the future of innovation… you gotta be shot… the best entrepreneur that combines visionary with engineering skills.” ([12:19], Gerstner).

• Team Acknowledgment:

  • Praise for COO Gwynne Shotwell and the entire SpaceX team for execution and resilience through “near death experiences.” ([11:30], Gerstner).

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5. Speculation: M&A, Synergies, and Industry Impact

• Potential SpaceX–Tesla Combination:
  • High speculation, with Gerstner seeing a “high probability”: “They have such an overlapping mission… it will attempt to accelerate the path, right, to Optimus… to xAI being a frontier model.” ([20:40], Gerstner).
  • Control structures and investor preferences for founder-led, vertically integrated entities considered ([21:31], Gerstner; [21:21], Sechan).

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6. Broader Markets and Policy Considerations

• Wealth Creation and Inequality:

  • Elon Musk officially became the world’s first trillionaire as a result of the IPO ([40:48], Robert Frank).
  • Gerstner used this as a springboard to discuss the need for broader capital access, mentioning “Invest America” and the concept of ‘Trump accounts’ to help reduce the wealth gap ([42:05], Gerstner).

• Immigration and Innovation:

  • Gerstner and Wapner discussed how America’s openness to immigrant talent (with Musk as emblematic case) is crucial to its technology leadership ([22:43]–[25:38], Gerstner/Wapner).

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7. Tech Markets & Cyclical Trends

• Tech Market Rotation:

  • Recent tech market performance analyzed, with semiconductors and AI compute propping up indexes while software/internet names lag ([45:12], Gerstner).
  • Outlook: “As far as I can see out to 2829, we have natural constraints. There is not a dark GPU … We can only produce so many wafers in the world…” ([45:54], Gerstner).

• Risk of Overextension:

  • Sechan warned about “full-on crazy town” in chasing secondary/tertiary suppliers to tech build-out, suggesting possible near-term slowdown or volatility ([46:30], Sechan).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [01:42] Brad Gerstner:
  "Take a moment to celebrate what an incredible day this is for America... Today, we're back on the top in space. I think this is what makes the country great."

• [03:02] Gerstner:
  "They went from not in the game to $27 billion of a hyperscaler revenue. Big deal."

• [05:53] Malcolm Etheridge:
  "Founder-led companies usually increase shareholder returns by double... the space business, they have a 90 share Starlink... There's a lot of ways this company can win."

• [13:45] Wolfe Research via Scott Wapner:
  "A launch company wrapped in a telecommunications company wrapped in a hyperscaler. Near zero space launch cost creates one of the widest moats in history."

• [16:01] Rob Sechan:
  "Before you open your trading app and get ready to place that trade, I just want you to think about the price that you're preparing."

• [20:40] Gerstner on potential merger:
  "I think it’s a high probability event. I would frankly encourage Elon... to do it. They have such an overlapping mission."

• [42:05] Gerstner on wealth inequality:
  "We can have trillionaires. But now we need to get capital into the pockets of every child born so that they can compound in the upside of Space X, in Alphabet, in all our great companies..."

• [45:54] Gerstner on AI constraints:
  "There is not a dark GPU. This is not dark fiber. There are no dark GPUs... that prevents us from building as much compute as we would otherwise."

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Timestamps Summary of Important Segments

• [01:00] – [03:02]: IPO opening, SpaceX’s historical context, initial trading.
• [03:02] – [06:04]: Transformation to AI hyperscaler, credibility in data center build-out.
• [08:07] – [10:39]: Risks and valuation considerations, focus on AI/TAM.
• [11:30] – [12:19]: Praise for SpaceX team, importance of near-death company moments.
• [14:15]: Starlink and launch cost competitive edge.
• [16:01] – [18:36]: Retail investor considerations, price/valuation warnings.
• [20:40]: Discussion regarding likelihood and rationale for SpaceX–Tesla merger.
• [22:41] – [25:47]: Musk’s entrepreneurship, immigration policy and innovation.
• [31:12] – [33:01]: More on retail IPO restrictions.
• [40:48]: Elon Musk becomes the world’s first $1T individual.
• [42:05] – [43:27]: Wealth gap and inclusive investing.
• [45:12] – [45:54]: Macro on tech market drivers.
• [46:30] – [47:21]: Concerns about market froth and tertiary thematic plays.

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Final Takeaways

• SpaceX’s IPO is both a business milestone and a symbolic leap for American technology leadership.
• AI hyperscaling and deep partnerships with companies like Google and Anthropic are redefining what SpaceX is—and how it’s valued.
• A significant part of the thesis is faith in Elon Musk’s execution—backed by a loyal, talented team.
• Future growth, index inclusion, and broad investor access will continue to shape price and supply/demand dynamics.
• Listeners are warned: Success is likely to be measured in years, not days—this isn’t a get-rich-quick trade.
• Panelists are bullish but call attention to structural risks, valuation, and societal implications of massive wealth creation.

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This episode was a must-listen snapshot of a transformational market event, marked by both optimism and due diligence.

Transcript

[Brad Gerstner]

At Edward Jones, we believe rich is more than caring about the latest and greatest. It's also taking care of what gives your life meaning. That's why your dedicated financial advisor meets you where you are with personalized financial strategies that help protect what matters so you can preserve your progress while creating a path forward. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich together.

[Venture Global Representative]

Edward Jones Member, SIPC At Venture Global, we think about what can be done, not what's usually done through innovation. Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost in a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Sima, thank you very much. That Seema Modi at the nasdaq. Our breaking news coverage of the Space X IPO does continue now. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. We're here at post nine at the New York Stock Exchange. We're opened for business in the biggest IPO ever, up about 16% right now. We'll track every single move of it. Space X Investor, Altimeter Capital founder and CEO Brad Gerstner is with us here. Stephanie Link is as well. Malcolm Etheridge and Rob Seats. Great to have everybody here. It is a momentous day. The timing of this, getting it open before noon, momentous in and of itself. You got a big allocation.

[Brad Gerstner]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

What do you think you're buying into today? What do you feel like you are?

[Brad Gerstner]

I mean, I mean, first, let's just take a moment first. Thanks for having me on. Take a moment to celebrate what an incredible day this is for America. What an incredible day it is for the hard work of the thousands of people at Starbase who work, work to put us back on the top in space. Remember when Space X got started? Right. We didn't even have a shuttle to go to space to pick up our own astronauts. We were paying the Russians to go get our astronauts. Today, we're back on the top in space. I think this is what makes the country great. It's a great moment to celebrate. With that said, yes, we were buyers in the ipo. We were lucky enough to be shareholders ahead of the ipo. I think there's an incredible moment for the company. The numbers that are out there are not layups by any stretch, but hopefully today we can unpack that a little bit, Scott, because I think they have a real path on both AI hyperscale compute on X on launch and the things they're doing in connectivity that are going to change the country.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah. I mean, you mentioned some very, very big numbers. And this is where the real work begins. Right. To try and reach those lofty targets that some have set, including the company itself. Right. A TAM of 28 and a half trillion dollars. Morgan Stanley's looking for Space X's revenue to reach 3.4 trillion in 2040. Lofty targets, obviously by Goldman Sachs as well. So now we see what they can do from here, right?

[Brad Gerstner]

Well, I mean, let's not go all the way out to 2040. I think it's 160 billion, which is a little more pedestrian in 2028. And remember, something extraordinary happened the last time I was on the show just a couple of weeks ago. I said everything about the IPO changed. Why? Because they had moved into the category of being an AI hyperscaler. In literally six weeks, they went from not in the game to $27 billion of a hyperscaler revenue. Big deal. Google with big deals from Anthropic and Google, what is the one thing we can all underwrite? I think we can all agree Elon Musk and the team at Space X are as capable as anybody on the planet. Jensen has said they're number one at standing up terrestrial data centers. At standing up AI data centers. On my podcast, Jensen said they did in 100 days what it took others two to three years to do. So if the bet, you know, in going from, you know, 20 billion or 18 billion last year to 160 billion, a huge portion of that is standing up AI data centers and leasing them right to the anthropics of the world, the Googles of the world. I think they're going to run away and consolidate that business. My estimate is in a few years they're going to be the largest AI hyperscaler in the United States.

[Scott Wapner]

I mean, it's probably why, you know, as you heard Sequoia's Sean McGuire in the interview with our friends in the prior hour, suggest that that massive TAM that I mentioned could be, in his words, an under estimate. This company has the most important mission of any company in history. He said, thinking about 10 years from now, I think of it more like in video three years ago, high confidence in the explosive revenue growth that they can deliver. And he made the point, I think, which was really interesting to listen to, and they can ramp really quickly. To your point, they've already proven their ability to ramp certain parts of the business really quickly. So doubt those large numbers at your own peril, I suppose.

[Brad Gerstner]

Yeah. I mean, listen, again, today this was not a get rich quick scheme. Today. $1.7 trillion is not a inadequate valuation. You see the stock up 20% today. So when I was getting calls from my mom and my siblings, should I buy the SpaceX stock on retail? I said it's not going to get rich quick scheme, but if you want to own it for a year or two years, I think you're going to do really well. Competitive returns from this one. I mentioned the hyperscalers. What we haven't mentioned is the pending acquisition of Cursor. Look, we were looking at investing in Cursor. I think it was probably the next best lab in the country beyond the Frontier Labs. We thought this company could get to 10 billion in revenue on its own this year. Right now, coupled with Space X, we think they can really have a shot at building with that huge compute infrastructure, really building another Frontier Lab. Remember, you know, intelligence is the log of compute. They have the largest coherent clusters in the country. And so we think they're going to be in the game at building X AI into a real Frontier Lab.

[Scott Wapner]

You're one of the few in our orbit. Pardon the fun. Who wanted in on this ipo? Who said you were going to be a buyer?

[Brad Gerstner]

Are you?

[Malcolm Etheridge]

I thought this was going to be up 40, 50%, up 20. It's an absolute screaming buy. But I also said you buy a small position, it's going to be volatile and you just set it and you forget it. Because he has a great track record. Elon Musk. Tesla was up 25,000% since their 2010 IPO. And that is a big, big number. So who knows what this company is going to do. But a total addressable market, even if it's half of the 28.5 trillion that is estimated, that's still huge Runway for this company. And founder led companies usually increase shareholder returns by double. So you want to own a founder led company. They have the sense of urgency and he does. We know that for facts. The space business, they have a 90 share Starlink. They had 10 million customers. Brad just talked about the opportunity. There's a lot of ways this company can win. They can just win in one of these things. And I think the stock is much higher.

[Scott Wapner]

You own this stock and pretty good

[Stephanie Link]

size in private market and in the IPO as well. We've been participants across our client base. I think this is the most strategically unique asset ever to come to market. And they're going to have enormous pricing power. The one risk is their biggest clients, the U.S. government. So when you have that type of, type of pricing power, monopolistic pricing power, where your costs are coming in tremendously and, and your profits are going up enormously, the revenue opportunity and everything that Brad outlined And by the way, if you can't listen to that and get excited about this business, there's, there's actually something, something wrong with you. This IPO is the most engineered IPO in history too. Do you think any of the underwriters are not going to support this? The size of the offering, the retail participation. So there's a lot to be excited about. The index inclusion. Right.

[Scott Wapner]

Nasdaq 100. Right.

[Stephanie Link]

So, so, so much that is supportive of here now. There is a huge underwriters lockup coming off at some point in the future. There may be an opportunity at some point to be a better buyer. However I think there's so much enthusiasm around this and if you're a really long term thinker and you believe in the visionary characteristics of this man, I don't know how you can't be excited. And I think the writing's on the wall in the roadshow that this and Tesla could be together at some point in time.

[Scott Wapner]

Well that's the great speculation. So stocks up about 20ish percent as Leslie Picker was saying from the trading floor of Morgan Stanley, the sweet spot if you will and how these things are, you know, hoped to trade in their earliest moments of trading. What about you? Interest from you or. No.

[Rob Sechan]

Malcolm, no. And I think that Brad framed it perfectly as far as what you should be considering this company to do if you're buying in at IPO. Right. The S1 the prospectus told you basically we're an AI company now. Right. The focus the TAM that they Talked about, the $28 trillion which by the way is the size of the GDP of the entire United States. But that aside like the TAM is all from AI. It has nothing to do with launching rockets, it's nothing to do with satellite connectivity. And I'm being general when I say nothing to do with. But most of it is hyperscaler Capex related to we're building data centers trying to unseat some of the funny.

[Scott Wapner]

Because now the biggest revenue percentage they get is, is from the connectivity angle.

[Rob Sechan]

Yes.

[Scott Wapner]

Starlink's the biggest contributor today. Not suggesting in any way that that means it's the biggest contributor in the future because it's obviously in what you're saying is factual but it speaks in some respects to how this company is transforming itself in real time.

[Rob Sechan]

Let me finish thought what I was going to say is if you really want pure play space, because the name is a little bit misleading now, SpaceX, you could be looking at like an AST that's selling off tremendously today. You could be looking at Rocket Lab, which is selling off tremendously today in response to raising capital to go participate here. Just by comparison, if I wanted a hyperscaler that's building to put AI data centers all over the country and all over the globe, I don't have to pay 100 times sales to do it. I could look at something like an Alphabet at 10 times sales. I could look at an Amazon at 3 times sales. What about Xai is so much more valuable 27 times roughly the value of Amazon at this price point. That's the question I have to be asked.

[Scott Wapner]

I'll let you answer that. Yeah.

[Brad Gerstner]

I mean, I think the pushback is important and fair. Just to go to the numbers for a second, I think if you look at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley's numbers for 2028, they have about 2x what the connectivity or Starlink revenue is. So Starlink is going to be a massive, massive business we shouldn't underestimate. Remember, Starship being able to have the advantage that it's going to have to space unlocks everything else. So the call options that we're valuing of orbital data centers, of all the stuff that lies in front of us. And remember, we're applying a future multiple. We're not looking backwards, we're saying, what is this going to be worth in the future? We have the greatest visionary, the greatest engineer, the greatest operator. And let's give a shout out to Gwynne Shotwell and the team. Everybody always talks about Elon, but standing right behind Elon is just an extraordinary team that has been relentless for decades putting us back on top.

[Scott Wapner]

She was probably there, you know, at 3, at some of the, you know, the darkest moments of the trajectory of this company, even getting to a day like today. One of the earliest employees, I think Elon said maybe number seven or something to that regard. But if you look at Elon himself when he was addressing his own employees this morning from out at their HQ, the Starbase, he said that 10 years ago I gave SpaceX less than a 10.

[Brad Gerstner]

I'm sorry?

[Scott Wapner]

He said I gave space SpaceX less than a 10% chance of succeeding at all. That was back in 2002. It speaks to the road full traveled to get to this day. And I'm glad that you mentioned her and the role that she's played because she's been there from near beginning to help get this company to this moment.

[Brad Gerstner]

Right. And it's, you know, we're here celebrating these moments, but the near death experiences that Elon and Gwen will recount time after time, not just at Space x, at Tesla, etc. And they continue to reinvent themselves at scale. Just think about what they did over the last six weeks heading into this IPO. Not to mention launching Falcon 9 with a bunch of satellites the morning of the IPO successfully into space, but just in the last six weeks doing these deals, these hyperscaler deals, acquiring or an option to acquire cursor, these are massive things. I can't imagine another Mag7 company that's entrepreneurial like this at this scale. So if you ask me why I'm betting on them. Right? You don't have to be either or against Alphabet, by the way. You don't have to be either or against it. You can bet on those companies as well. But this one, to me, if you wanted to bet one company on the future of innovation, the best entrepreneur that combines visionary with engineering skills, you got to be shot.

[Stephanie Link]

Optionality is what he's talking about. There's so many different verticals that they are focused on to get moonshot. Optionality. And I think granted to Malcolm's point, there wasn't a lot of discussion on that topic in the roadshow. It's so funny, it was such a big part of the valuation. But they didn't address it a lot in the road. In the road show, they focused on their core business. That's admirable.

[Scott Wapner]

Look at what Wolf is saying today, right? They're one of the early initiators. So the streets sort of starting to weigh in. 175 is their price target. So you're looking 30% from the set price. Well, obviously see what's happening in the trade here tells a little bit of a different story from this moment forward. But they call this quote, a launch company wrapped in a telecommunications company wrapped in a hyperscaler. Near zero space launch cost creates one of the widest moats in history that will drive 70% top line growth and near doubling EBITDA margins through 2030.

[Malcolm Etheridge]

They have 90% share in space. As I mentioned that they also have a huge cost advantage because they have reusable rockets and they have scale. And so their launch costs with and Starship's launch costs are going to go from 14 million to something like 3 to 4 million. That is a lot of operating leverage in one of their businesses. And they could probably get, in terms of Starlink, 250 million customers between now and 2030. That's what's on going projected. If they get half of that, that's a heck of a lot better than where they are today at 10 million. So to me, yeah, the story is interesting and Anthropic and Google certainly make it more interesting. But I think there's a lot of other parts of this company that are very exciting and I don't think it's getting enough attention.

[Brad Gerstner]

Let me say one thing. Make no mistake about it. This valuation hangs on the fact that we have huge demand for an AI computer future. Right. They just sold this compute to Anthropic and Google at a big premium, Scott, because we, we are out of compute in this country. If you look at no. 1, Brown, who's one of the lead researchers at OpenAI, I'd encourage you to check out a tweet he had the other day. And no one basically said that because of test time compute, if we let things run, the current models run long enough, they can solve almost any problem. What that means is that we're at recursive self learning, but we're lacking compute. So the world is going to be massively consumptive of compute. He's the best at building and standing up the compute. There are rumors out there that he's already putting in for 20% of all the Vera Rubin volume right from Jensen Huang. He's going to take it and stand up more data centers for himself. It creates tremendous optionality for. Make no mistake about it, Elon intends to be on the frontier himself. He is not seeding the air standhropic and open air.

[Rob Sechan]

What price though, right? Because I don't dispute anything you're saying about what the future looks like. But for the sake of the viewer, I want to just draw attention one more time to the price we're talking about paying for this because this company is coming public and it's one of the top six or seven largest companies now trading. That is massive. And it's also going to have massive implications for the entire market itself going forward the rest of the year. So I think it's really important. If you're a viewer watching this and thinking with all of the excitement, have I missed the boat? Do I need to get in on this? Before you open up your trading app and get ready to place that trade, I just want you to Think about the price that you're preparing.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, I think Brad's made that point repeatedly that, you know, the, the greatest rewards arguably have been realized in the private market to this point. You're paying the valuation you are today on the massive bet that people are making for the future. If you don't believe in the future, then you wouldn't buy the stock today. You're obviously making some degree of a leap of faith, which is why the market cap is now above $2 trillion right now. If Maguire of Sequoia says it's more like in video three years ago, is that where we're heading? I mean, that's 5 trillion.

[Brad Gerstner]

Well, actually, you know, Nvidia is up about 15x from where they were three years ago. So I don't think Sean was suggesting that Space X is going to be up 15x over the course of the next three years. But where I think he was right is he's talking about all the untapped optionality. Orbital data centers launch two to three times a day. What that unlocks in terms of the space and communications business, what that unlocks in terms of AI hyperscaler business. Again, if you think about Terraform this year we added 25 to 30 gigs of compute. Elon's talking about adding a thousand gigs of compute a year. But I want to come back to this thing about whether we should be running out and buying this today because I'm not here to pump the stock to every retail investor out there. You're absolutely right. It's fair value today, it's trading in an open market and I would say it's fair value today. There is no get rich quick scheme. We saw what happened with Cerebras, right just a few weeks ago. It pops on the open, it sells off. I think that creates opportunities then for people to, who are doing their work to step in.

[Stephanie Link]

Can I ask you a question?

[Brad Gerstner]

Sure.

[Stephanie Link]

When you're getting a lot of comparisons to Metta, another large IPO came public, did what it did, sold off, gave investors an opportunity to get in because the size, because of the news flow that was around it, because of some of the lockups that came up. What do you think about those type of comparisons given you're an investor in both as a mine, by the way.

[Brad Gerstner]

I mean the reason that Facebook sold off and we were huge buyers into

[Scott Wapner]

that sell off was because of issue at the open.

[Brad Gerstner]

They made a bet on HTML5 rather than native apps and people didn't think that they could monetize their, their, their mobile application and everybody was moving off of desktop to mobile. So there was a fundamental reason that caused a lot of question. It was not just a valuation question. And by the way, when it was on the COVID of Barron's, if you remember the huge arrow going down, it hit 17 bucks a share. We put 20% of our fund in. It was a one way street from there up. So I mean like that was a counter indicator. And what they did, like any great founder led entrepreneur is he pivoted, he said, okay, we'll just go build a mobile app. And they monetized the heck out of it. The same thing. I think when you're looking at this, you shouldn't, you know, if you want to have a little fun and day trade this thing and try to make a few bucks, great, have at it. But if you want to bet on this over the long term, if you take Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, his numbers, you know, I have my 15 year old intern, he's around here somewhere. He's interning with Altimeter this summer. He's using Fable 5 to build his Space X valuation model. He's running all these Monte Carlo simulations on where, where this gets totally fascinating and exciting. But he said, dad, my target price for this in 2030 is that this can be a 2 to 3x. And then we talked about what that meant for the irr, what's the annualized rate return, you know, for that. So it's not a 15x over the course of the next three years, but I think it will be a competitive return with the best in technology with a call option to the upside. And so for any institutional investor or any hedge fund investor, this is a must own for most of us in our institutional portfolios. And 15 days from now you're going to see 20 to 30 billion dollars of demand roll into the market as the index funds start buying the security.

[Scott Wapner]

Young Mr. Gerstner sounds like he's well on his way as well. A future guest, perhaps of the most in the future IPOs. We'll, we'll see. The idea that Space X and Tesla could one day combine, you put a lot of stock into that.

[Brad Gerstner]

I think it's a high probability event. I would frankly encourage Elon and you know, for his own sanity to do it. You know, running these two public companies, they have such an overlapping mission. I mean, you know, at the primitive of robotics is AI, right? And so you know, you now rather than having four different places where he's building AI, remember just a few months ago you had Twitter over Here you had X over here, you had Tesla over here rolling these things all together. Right. And giving him both the cost synergies associated with it, the data synergies associated with it, the revenue synergies. I think it will attempt accelerate the path, right, to Optimus. It will accelerate the path to Xib in a frontier model.

[Rob Sechan]

Well, just to get tariff under that roof will do a tremendous amount to get you where you're talking about that call option to the upside, because right now they're not vertically integrated, which means you're losing.

[Brad Gerstner]

And there's a debate as to whether, you know, remember, Elon has control shares and control of Space X. He doesn't in Tesla. Right. And so there are a lot of people saying, well, he's going to do it so that he gains control for most of us as shareholders who are. Who want to back founders who have control. I'm actually excited about that for sure. Right. I have no problem with Tesla coming in here maybe at a bit of a premium in order for Elon to consolidate his bets on AI.

[Scott Wapner]

And so we speak to the musk premium, if you will, all of you, really, if you consider how unique this story is and how unique he is as an entrepreneur, he's certainly one of the greatest entrepreneurs and operators, tech technicians, technical thinkers that we've ever seen. If you consider, you know, a pioneer in digital payments from. From way back when. Neuralink. Boring. Xai didn't found Tesla, but he joined and sort of took it to another place. Obviously, so much of what everybody's going to be buying into today in some respects is him.

[Rob Sechan]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

Speak to that.

[Brad Gerstner]

Well, I think there's very. Too often we don't acknowledge on this desk. Right. That one or two people at the heads of these companies determine their fate. Right. So you want to back. If all I did in my career is back the best founders and the best leaders and short the others, I would have done extraordinary well, extraordinarily well. Too often you try to make excuses for the person you know, is not a great leader. In this case, he's an extraordinary visionary technologist, engineer. And next to him, people like Gwynne Shotwell, who are extraordinary operators. It is, you know, it's the type of people that you want to be backing. But one of the things I bring up, Scott, remember Elon came here from South Africa and Elon's talked about this, you know, at length. We need to remain the place that all these incredible people that want to invent the future want to come here, they want to come here and do it. And unfortunately, when Elon was in California, he was being demonized and attacked by people like Lorraine Gonzalez, who ran the state senate in the state of California. And when he left California, she said, good riddance. This is a problem we have today in America. We need to celebrate entrepreneurship. This creates the, the abundance that we have. Yes. We need to do things like Trump accounts to raise the floor for these kids and do all these things.

[Stephanie Link]

By the way, kudos to you for your involvement.

[Brad Gerstner]

Thank you. But, but I, you know, I look around the table of space X, the number of people who came from outside the United States to invent the future, to create this $2 trillion of value and the true trillion in value to teachers and firefighters.

[Scott Wapner]

That's fair. But in fairness, we are having a, not that I want to go down this path, but we are having a broader debate about immigration in this country. And if you want to cite the fact that he's from South Africa and we need more people of his quality or whatever to come into this country and try and be the next or move the ball of this arena forward, then your message needs to be heard as much in the whole halls of this place as it does down in Washington. Because that debate is fierce right now, as you know, and it's trending in a direction that's not what you hope it would be.

[Brad Gerstner]

I would say that we are pounding the table in Washington and on sets like this, two things can coexist. We can have a real border where people who come here illegally are stopped, and we can have a fair process where people can legally come into this country. And I would say we need to double and triple down. We need to be strategic. We need to go around the world and recruit all the Elon Musk around the world, make sure they know this place is the best place to pursue their dream, to innovate, to get risk capital to do all these things. And by the way, when those two things get commingled down in Washington, I'm quick to point out the difference. Right. These are two very separate issues. This is what made America. This is what we're going to celebrate on the 250 folks like Elon who risk it all, come here, start with nothing, and build one of the most extraordinary success stories in the history of the country.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, I mean, because there's a, there's a debate even in of itself on, on H1BS. So let's not.

[Brad Gerstner]

You heard me. Double down on immigration.

[Scott Wapner]

I hear you, but there's a, there's a debate in D.C. about that too. So it's a complicated issue. I said I didn't want to go down that road. But if you drove the car down there, we were going to go there for a minute at least get it, get it on the table. Because all of these issues matter and they matter in technology, as all of you know. You want to take a break? We'll take a quick break. All right. We'll come back. We'll talk more obviously about the SpaceX IPO. We will talk about what's been happening in technology as well. We're back right after this.

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[Malcolm Etheridge]

Here at the NASDAQ on dollar ticker symbol SPCX specific IPO that raised 75.

[Scott Wapner]

Well there was the open at 150. We could take a look in real time to see what the stock is doing now. But that was just a few moments before 12 noon. We have about a 21.5% gain. So it's really been holding in again. I just cite what Leslie Picker was reporting earlier, the so called sweet spot and this thing seems to be anchored to that. We also noted, you know guys, what some of the firms on Wall street are saying now about the prospects for this price targets and what I told you that Wolf Research came out with Oppenheimer did 190 as a price target outperformed New Street 165. They didn't rate it. Just a few moments ago CFRA came out with a sell rating on the stock. That's what makes a market 115 is the 12 month price target that they have. We'll go through the note a little bit and give you an idea of what they're saying. But they point to the strengths obviously that this company has that have already been identified. But they do have a negative outlook that they have platform optionality. But the investment case increasingly depends on, on investors capitalizing on outcomes that remain unproven, particularly Starship. I mean that's the bet, right? You, you say the targets are huge. No way in heck they can reach them. Sell, you say the targets are huge. Don't underestimate what they've already done. They could easily reach some of these things if they do things that are right buy. Therein lies the market.

[Brad Gerstner]

I mean in technology a lot more money has been lost sitting on the sidelines, wringing your hands about all the things that can go wrong rather than betting on the upside. And when you have the single best entrepreneur, innovator and company executing and operating in the history of entre of technology, to me it's kind of a no brainer to take that bet, you know. And the other thing I know is his down the downside from 135 was 20 bucks. So really you're going to sit out on, you know, the biggest opportunity in the of history technology perhaps. Right? Because you're worried about 20 bucks to the downside, the amount of money that has been lost by very smart people on Wall street with that exact same argument about Metta, about Alphabet, about every other company that's come before them is a long list. We're sitting here because we're optimists on the future of America. We believe in the future of technology. And you know, again, I don't think you have to rush in today and push all your chips on the table today, but this is where one you want to have exposure.

[Scott Wapner]

I'm glad you addressed retail and Malcolm, I felt like earlier you were trying to speak directly to the retail investor in that cohort who's, who's watching our program today. I wonder what you make of the restrictions that were put around some of the retail investors who wanted to take part in this IPO from a lot of, you know, some of the retail brokerages that were out. And what do you think that means in the greater picture of how we should think about this really important cohort and how they want a piece of the action. They want to feel the excitement that Gerstner does and that Etheridge does and that Link does and Secchen does.

[Rob Sechan]

Yeah. So I think it's, it's a really important distinction that you're making because there's institutional buyers who are going to hold on to this thing forever. Right. Their time horizon is forever. And then there's the folks that are wanting to get into it, catch the wave, hoping to be the next Tesla because they missed out on Tesla, however many different times it had its pop. And I've talked to you, Brad, off camera several times. I know how you feel about retail investors getting an opportunity to participate in some of these bigger opportunities that we're talking about. But what I think we, we have to keep in mind is that the get rich quick to your, to your phrasing is not in this. We're talking about $43 billion roughly, is what was raised from all IPOs last year combined non SPAC IPOs. We're talking about roughly $200 billion being raised this year between three companies. That is significant. That is going to suck a lot of oxygen out of this market before the end of the year. And that liquidity has to come from somewhere. So I'm concerned about the retail investors who stand to get crushed by that wave if they aren't careful, if they're trying to get get into these for the wrong reason. If it's a quick flip you're after, Fidelity, you're talking about has restrictions in place about selling the shares within 15 days of the initial allocation. I think so far is even more punitive. It's roughly 30 days. Schwab's the only one I've seen that doesn't actually have a written block against it. But I think they said something like, we don't want to see it here. So still, there's these mechanisms in place that you as a retail investor need to be aware of, that if your plan is not to hold on to these shares for quite some time, you might be better off waiting a month before all the different mechanisms that are in place related to the roll off the lockup, NASDAQ buying that's going to happen, this 4 or 5% allocation of NASDAQ funds that are going to go into this. Like there's a lot of things that are going to happen that you could wait a little bit.

[Malcolm Etheridge]

And that's why I said you buy a small position and you set it and you forget it. Because 18 billion in total revenues expected to go to over 200 billion by 2030. EBITDA, which is interesting to me. Profitability got 5 billion to 128 billion. Let's just say what if they just go from 5 to 25 billion? That's still huge in terms of operating leverage. I agree with you. You don't want to day trade this thing. I wouldn't know how to do that. But I do think that the growth is so phenomenal that we haven't seen something like this ever.

[Scott Wapner]

Are you buying it, by the way?

[Malcolm Etheridge]

Well, I'm restricted today because I'm talking about it, but I will be next week for sure.

[Scott Wapner]

I just want to make sure we're on the record.

[Malcolm Etheridge]

I'm on the record. If I could do it today, I would.

[Scott Wapner]

All right.

[Stephanie Link]

I think the points that Malcolm's making are absolutely true. You know, it does sound smart to paint the bearish case, but rarely are bears proven.

[Brad Gerstner]

Right.

[Stephanie Link]

And I'm not saying he's painting a bearish case, but let's remember this. Supply, supply is being brought to market. It is significant. The share buybacks that are happening every day are reducing supply in the market. And if you actually looked at the statistics, and I'm not saying you, but market writ large shares are being taken out of the market broadly with the buybacks that we're seeing that are ranging between the 1 and 3% range. So you're creating ample liquidity to be able to buy these companies. Now you're right in the technology space. I think that's probably why you saw some volatility in some of these other names, other reasons of course, moving from cap light to cap intensive businesses, which makes no sense to me because if you're, if you're a company that believes in your future and you make those investments, they are necessary, Oracle, everybody that is spending money, whether you think it's prudent or not. Brad, I know we talked about, talked about this in late 22, getting better right sized on their spend but the reality of you can pivot spending, you can't pivot being behind. And so everybody's going chips in right now. And I, based on the opportunity set think that's very logical to be doing.

[Rob Sechan]

I've heard this argument before about the idea that the share buybacks are going to help to reduce float and that sort of thing. But I would submit to you that if you look at Google having to do, not having to do, but choosing to do an equity raise at $80 billion, you got Oracle doing another $40 billion right after they did 43 last year. Or maybe I have it the other way around. Maybe the share buybacks that we're hanging our hats on are going to slow down as we continue to go because these companies have run out of free cash flow to throw at building these data centers and they're now going to have to raise debt. Three special purpose vehicles and other off book finance financing. The buybacks that we're talking about that we're banking on should be slowing down this year.

[Malcolm Etheridge]

I think you will see it slow down. But that gives me all the more confidence in the infrastructure build out picks and shovel plays. The more the capex goes up, the more they benefit. And we're seeing record backlogs. We've been talking about record backlogs at some of these industrial industrial companies for years and they're doing quite well actually. They've held up remarkably well in the face of kind of AI doing kind of wobbling over the last couple of weeks.

[Stephanie Link]

Can I ask a question? How do you think about all the SPVs that have been created to invest in and around this, the venture companies that invested in Space X, they're in lockups to varying degrees that many as they come off to get their own liquidity, to have their own wealth experience are going to be net, net sellers. Do you think that's a, a future opportunity in the name just because the magnitude of what exists out there and I just like to get your take on that.

[Brad Gerstner]

Well first, you know I think there are sellers in the market today, right. That's why we have every single share that's bought. There's somebody on the other side of that trade and most of us who put in for IPO allocations today while we, we got some, we didn't get what we wanted. Right. And so there was a lot more demand, both retail and Asia, Japan, etc. Than was fulfilled today. Yes, there will be people in venture that mid August when the lockup, remember this is a dribble lockup so it's much like the cerebras dribble out. So it will start in mid August. Some of this will, will start to be distributed. I imagine There are people, LPs and funds that are hedging today that's probably who's taking the other side of a lot of these trades today. So I don't expect that you're going to have some moment or there's some big overhang because on the other side of that you have index inclusion. I think the amount of demand coming from Indexed inclusion is probably even more than the selling pressure that you're going to see from the distribution. But yes, it's going to take three, six months for this to shake out in terms of exactly where is the supply and demand. And remember, during that period of time, we're probably going to get a lot more deals announced. I know a lot more companies that are raising their hand and they're saying, hey, Elon and Gwen, do you have more of that compute that I can buy from you? Remember, there is a massive, massive compute shortage. We saw Fable 5 come out this week. That is, you know, Anthropic's model that I think was probably trained and done sometime in January, February. There are models coming out after that. They don't have enough inference to serve the demand that's out there in the market today. So the world is starved, compute. And so I think that you're going to see more deals announced by these guys. We got Starship launch coming in a month. And by the way, let's also remember they're taking on risky stuff. We're going to have days on this show where Starship fails, right? And the stock's going to be down 5% because Starship failed. Even though Starship, you know, all their rockets have failed a lot over the course of the last 10 years. And on that given day, if it was a public stock, the stock would have been down on its way to higher highs. Right? So there will be volatility embedded into this one, but structurally I think there's plenty of demand to sop up any supply from SPVs or anything else.

[Stephanie Link]

Great answer.

[Scott Wapner]

We'll take a quick break. We have the world's first trillionaire. His name is Elon Musk. Our Robert Frank following the money. We still want to talk about what's been happening in tech lately as well. We'll do it with Brad and the gang next.

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[Scott Wapner]

We're back. Elon Musk becoming the world's first trillionaire just moments ago as Space X goes public. Robert Frank joins us now with more. Hey, Robert.

[Robert Frank]

Scott, good to see you. I've been covering wealth for over 20 years. This is one of those major moments to talk about because Elon Musk just becoming the world's first trillionaire at that trading price right now of around 160 bucks. His stake in SpaceX now worth $820 billion. You add in that Tesla stake worth about 280 billion and his total net worth as we have it right now is over $1.1 trillion. So Elon Musk is worth more than the next five richest billionaires in the world combined. His personal fortune is larger than the GDP of Sweden, Ireland or Taiwan. Today's IPO alone added more than $300 billion to his net worth. So just today, he added more wealth than Jeff Bezos. His entire net worth. Now for more on the millionaires and billionaires being created by the SpaceX IPO and the largest liquidity event ever and how these folks are investing. Sign up for the Inside wealth [e-mail] Inside Wealth Scott.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Robert, thanks so much. It's Robert Frank. You got a thought on this? I mean, it's obviously combined combining. Everything I do is Tesla stake and that's how you get to one t. I do.

[Brad Gerstner]

You know, on the one hand, I think it's important to realize that success like this is a feature of our system, not above it drives the GDP of the country, it grows aggregate wealth in the country. But the reason we started Invest America and Trump accounts four years ago is because the returns on capital today are radically greater than the returns on labor, which means we have a growing wealth gap and we can have trillionaires. But now we need to get capital into the pockets of every child born so that they can compound in the upside of Space X in Alphabet, in all of our great companies like everybody else in the market 60 to 70% of people today don't compare compound in the upside of our capital markets. I think you'll see a lot of announcements in the weeks ahead. You know, you see some of them rumored in the press about people are going to be donating shares perhaps or dollars into these accounts. We're at the very beginning of the largest change to the social contract in the history of this country where every child, every citizen compounds in a capital account from birth. That will help to close the gap. I celebrate Elon getting, you know, the top of the podium today. I just want to make sure that we change the system enough so that everybody else feels like they're on the same team, that they're winning when America wins. This is a day America is winning. We need to celebrate that and everybody needs to feel like they're winning.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, coming up, we'll have more on this blockbuster IPO today. The biggest ever, the committee's take on the broader tech trade, including Brad's as well back SpaceX. There it is. Highs of the day up about 26%, 169.96. What do you make of just the early part of the trade? I keep saying, you know what Leslie Picker was, was reporting about the, you know, the so called sweet spot. Like you don't want to see these things. You don't want to see these things do a massive pop.

[Brad Gerstner]

Yeah. I mean listen, hat tip to the banks. As you said, $75 billion IPO. You know, this was a big undertaking, Morgan Stanley stabilizing this thing. I think it's right in the center of the bull's eye of where you'd want to see it at this moment. You know, and remember, they had to navigate this with things going on around the Iran war. CPI coming, you know, coming in a little bit odder to see this thing up 25%. I think everybody around the table is thrilled with the outcome here, particularly given the pullback we've seen in technology over the last two weeks.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, we're back right after this. We are back. We touched the market, by the way, which is green across the board. There's just continued optimism that we're going to get to a deal regarding the war in Iran. And that started yesterday, late afternoon and it's followed through today. And maybe the biggest IPO of all time going off without a hitch, trading well. And the optimism in and of itself that that represents as part of the reason why the stock market is now green across the board as well. Let me ask you Before I let you go, what do you make of what's happened with tech lately, particularly chips, memory? Was that an inflection point that we just hit? What's the story here?

[Brad Gerstner]

Yeah, you know, I said last time I was on, we saw Anthropics revenue in February and March. It lit a fuse under the market. We went parabolic in the semi sector in April and May. But remember, this is A tale of two stories in tech. Software is down 8% on the year. Internet's down 15% on the year. This has been about this. The semiconductor and AI compute trade almost exclusively in technology. That's what's propping up the indexes. Right. And so this all hangs on the fact that we're going to consume more tokens in the future. The second anybody starts questioning whether or not we need this much AI compute will be really hard for the market. I happen to be bullish on that. But that's what you need to keep your.

[Stephanie Link]

What timetable do you think we have to look at there?

[Brad Gerstner]

Yeah, you know, as far as I can see out to 2829, we have natural constraints. There is not a dark GPU. This is not dark fiber. There are no dark GPUs. What is the natural constraint? We can only produce so many wafers in the world, so many memory wafers, so many logic wafers. That prevents us from building as much compute as we would otherwise.

[Malcolm Etheridge]

Go ahead continues to go higher, which we're seeing it from Google, from Metta, from Oracle. I mean the story is alive and well. And then you do want to own a lot of these companies that are getting pulled back like the semiconductor companies,

[Rob Sechan]

as long as they continue to spend. I think we've reached full on crazy town. Personally. Look at the second order effects, the ph alx and the stocks, the move in those over the last two, three months I've started to rotate into financials and REITs because I think that's probably the safer way.

[Scott Wapner]

What happens if, what happens if? To Brad's point, and certainly, you know, the, the analyst community is coming to realize that maybe they grossly underestimated the earnings power of the Microns and the memory, the other memory names and some of those key components within the AI universe. And the price action is not necessarily, necessarily reflective of, you know, a valuation story being completely out of whack. Got like less than 10 times on, on Micron. The price actions, making people got people a little bit nosebleedy.

[Rob Sechan]

But we've also gotten to a place where now it's not the second Order or even the third order effects. You have people trying to go downstream and find what's going to be the best supplier of, I don't know, hammers to the construction companies building the data centers for the hyperscalers. Like, it's really gotten to a place where we've gotten way too frothy in terms of what's the extra thing that they need next? What's going to be supply constrained is the way that I'll phrase it. I think that that is a good indication that we're probably due for a slowdown in that theme, at least near term. And so that's why I'm not talking about leaving tech completely. That'd be crazy. But I just think as you're taking gains, a couple of great places to look to rotate into REITs. Also, the financials.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, you got about a 29% gain in Space X now. 174 thereabouts is where the stock is currently trading. You have a final trade for us today. Did you come with one?

[Stephanie Link]

I do. Jefferies. I'm going to stay on his theme. If you believe financials are picking up, this is an incredibly inexpensive way to play it. Capital markets look like they're doing great. They're leveraged to that, I think.

[Rob Sechan]

Jefferies, who's got Goldman, Speaking of financials, you know who else is having a great day?

[Scott Wapner]

You may not. I was going to say you're not buying the space. All right.

[Malcolm Etheridge]

Steph, you need natural gas to build data centers. You need that power Kinder.

[Scott Wapner]

Morgan, you got one?

[Brad Gerstner]

Yeah. On the pullback over the last week in semis. You know, semis are down pretty significantly today. They're getting a little bit of a bounce, I would say. SK Hynix, back to your point. 7 times 20, 27 numbers. The single greatest bottleneck in the production of tokens.

[Scott Wapner]

Great having you here again.

[Brad Gerstner]

Thanks for having me.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, let's make this a regular thing. The exchange is now.

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