The Committee Reacts to the Fed Chair Pick 1/30/26

Summary

CNBC Halftime Report (Jan 30, 2026): The Committee Reacts to the Fed Chair Pick

Episode Overview

This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report aired on January 30, 2026, right after Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the new Fed Chair. Host Scott Wapner and the “Investment Committee”—Stephanie Link, Jim Laventhal, Rob Seach, and Josh Brown—react in real-time to the market’s response, dissect the immediate fallout in precious metals and tech stocks, discuss key earnings (especially Apple), and share outlooks for major sectors including energy and software. The tone is lively, analytical, and filled with sharp, rapid-fire debate as market events unfold.

---

Main Topics & Segment Timestamps

• [00:45] Opening and context: Warsh nominated, immediate market reaction
• [02:42] Silver, Gold & Meme Mania: Precious metals crash
• [10:17] Apple’s Earnings: Blowout iPhone sales, tepid stock reaction
• [21:42] Semiconductors: Memory stocks and equipment
• [23:02] Software’s Rough Patch: Microsoft, IBM, Salesforce, ServiceNow
• [27:27] Calls of the Day: Starbucks, Uber, Gilead, and more
• [28:37] Breaking News: Trump comments on Warsh and the Fed
• [35:28] Energy Sector: Exxon, Chevron earnings and M&A rumors
• [39:59] Market Pulse: Michael Santoli’s midday word
• [42:13] Next Week’s Earnings: Disney, Estee Lauder, Rockwell, Amgen
• [45:24] Final Trades: Hosts’ picks and quick takes

---

1. Warsh Named Fed Chair: Markets React ([00:45]–[06:04])

Key Discussion Points:

• Kevin Warsh’s nomination immediately rattles markets: broad declines, sharp reversal in precious metals.
• Host Scott Wapner frames the debate: “Will trade that and of course the Apple aftermath along with the rest of tech today… The Russell 2000 is given back more than anything else but we do have declines across the board.” ([00:45])
• Warsh seen as restoring Fed independence and possibly bringing a more hawkish stance, due to his roots during the housing bubble and financial crisis.

Notable Quotes:

• “The direction of silver, both to the upside and today to the downside, is definable by market forces… but the degree to which silver shot up and come down is likely the speed with which retail players are accessing silver via the options market.” — Jim Laventhal ([02:42])
• “It's not just that, though. It's that this is a guy that had hawkish policy during his tenure... Markets at least feel today that he’s going to revert to his hard money roots. And if he does, I think that's going to create some episodic challenges.” — Rob Seach ([04:21])

---

2. The Silver & Gold “Meme” Bust ([02:42]–[10:17])

Key Discussion Points:

• Silver and gold experience parabolic moves, driven in part by meme-style retail speculation.
• The options market in silver “skyrocketed” in volume — even exceeding NASDAQ options.
• Sudden reversal with silver down 17%, gold down 7% in a day, flushing out leveraged retail money.

Notable Quotes:

• “I was with Tom Lee last night and he had mentioned that on Wall Street Bets the numbers 1 and 2 most talked about tickers… were SLV and GLD. Gold down 7% today. Silver down 17%. It’s remarkable… There’s nothing fundamental about it. This is all, all leverage and I think it’s very healthy, quite frankly—if you're a gold bull, silver bull, doesn’t mean it’s over. What it does mean is a lot of dumb money got flushed out.” — Josh Brown ([07:52])
• “It has sucked even assets away from crypto. I am telling you crypto is under pressure.” — Rob Seach ([05:49])

---

3. Apple’s Earnings: Fundamentals vs. AI Hype ([10:17]–[18:25])

Key Discussion Points:

• Apple posts a record-smashing quarter: iPhone revenues up 23% YoY, China sales up 38%, services up 14%.
• Despite the results, Apple stock is flat—due to lack of near-term AI catalysts and high valuation (31x earnings) despite revenue growth in mid-teens percent.
• Concern over “cannibalization” of future demand, longer upgrade cycles (now at 5.2 years), and the need for an AI narrative.

Notable Quotes:

• “There's no great AI story yet to tell. And that's why the stock sits there sort of meandering…” — Scott Wapner ([11:15])
• “It’s expensive though, at 31 times what for 13 to 16% total revenue growth.” — Stephanie Link ([12:08])
• “The reason the stock has the multiple it has is not necessarily because of the upgrade… It’s just the sheer number of these devices and that lock into the ecosystem and that will not change. That’s what people care about the most.” — Josh Brown ([17:12])

Memorable Exchange:

• Playful debate over iPhone upgrade cycles and host’s misconception about panelists’ devices (starts at [16:35]).

---

4. Tech & Semis: Memory Stocks Keep Surging ([21:42])

Key Discussion Points:

• Memory stocks (Micron up 53% YTD, SanDisk, Teradyne) continue outsized rallies due to strong AI-driven demand.
• Valuations are running hot; high expectations remain.
• For KLA and others, even strong results aren’t enough in the face of “priced for perfection.”

Notable Quotes:

• “AI is driving structural growth for test equipment… they are certainly going to continue to benefit from that as well.” — Stephanie Link ([21:04])
• “We've actually just recently modestly trimmed this position (KLA) because we're a little worried about the extended valuations despite the healthy fundamentals and it’s just a matter of managing risk.” — Rob Seach ([22:37])

---

5. Software’s Slump, IBM’s Turnaround ([23:02])

Key Discussion Points:

• Software stocks suffer broad pullback—“worst month since April of 2022.” Even winners like IBM and ServiceNow wobble.
• IBM, however, is lauded for its transformation and newfound growth under CEO Arvind Krishna.
• Discussion of IBM’s pivot to AI, quantum computing, and premium valuation justified by accelerating growth.

Notable Quotes:

• “They are taking share from Accenture. And then you have their Gen AI book is now at $12.5 billion to exit the year… Everything is kind of clicking for IBM.” — Stephanie Link ([24:50])
• “It’s the fastest growth they’ve seen in the top line in nine years or 10 years. And they are kind of firing on all cylinders.” — Rob Seach ([25:42])

---

6. Calls of the Day, Breaking News, and Newsmakers ([27:27]–[32:52])

Notable Highlights:

• Starbucks: Stephanie Link remains bullish, expects operating margin recovery, will expand position. ([27:53])
• Trump on the Warsh Nomination: “I don’t want to ask him that question [about rates]… But he certainly wants to cut rates. I’ve been watching him for a long time.” ([29:02])
• Uber: Josh Brown is bullish long-term thanks to strong fundamentals and future opportunities in autonomous vehicles, despite bearishness from the Street. ([30:10])
• Gilead: Rob Seach praises pipeline, especially in HIV and oncology; calls valuation attractive. ([32:29])

---

7. Sector Deep Dive: Energy Earnings ([35:28])

Key Discussion Points:

• Exxon: Record net production, strong cash flow outlook (expected to see $60B in free cash flow over 4 years), stock down only because of strong prior run. ([35:28])
• Chevron: “Better than Exxon” per Stephanie Link—21% production growth, beats expectations across the board, dividend increased, stock seen as strong value.
• Devon/Kotera M&A Rumor: Fundamentals remain attractive, mergers likely to create economies of scale.

Notable Quotes:

• “...there are so many pistons firing in this engine… The punchline is over the next four years they're going to increase cash flow by $35 billion on top of $25 billion in the last year. $60 billion in four years of free cash flow.” — Jim Laventhal ([35:47])
• “Chevron was better than Exxon. The market’s probably telling you that too… production growth of 21% candidly beat expectations. They beat on throughput upstream and downstream across the board with lower costs.” — Stephanie Link ([37:07])
• “These are the most under owned stocks in the market… These companies are executing flawlessly and they don’t have that tailwind of commodities at their back… If oil is the gold of 2026, all of them will be substantially higher.” — Josh Brown ([38:32])

---

8. Midday Market Word: Michael Santoli’s Assessment ([39:59])

Key Insights:

• Warsh nomination causing only a “little bit of a shiver” in financial conditions.
• Precious metals’ “meme bubble” dynamics: unwinding of FOMO retail trade.
• “Silver is not supposed to trade like GameStop did in the heart of meme mania… It's just painful if it happens in two days.” ([41:48])

---

9. Next Week’s Earnings Outlook ([42:13])

Previews & Analyst Expectations:

• Disney: Awaiting Iger’s successor; streaming & parks performing well, stock seen as in consolidation phase.
• Estee Lauder: Focus on organic growth and momentum in ‘Beauty Reimagined’.
• Rockwell Automation: Margin expansion, product pipeline in spotlight.
• Amgen: Investors want clarity on biosimilars and pipeline/GLP1 drugs.

---

10. Final Trades ([45:24]–[46:00])

Panelist Picks:

• Josh Brown: Rocket (willing to buy on the dip, calling the selloff “stupid”)
• Rob Seach: Gilead (strong day, continued confidence)
• Jim Laventhal: On Holdings (expects strong holiday sales)
• Stephanie Link: Synopsys (on her radar, not owned—yet)

---

Notable Moments & Quick Takes

• Playful banter about iPhone upgrades and who on set is behind on the latest model ([16:35]).
• Host interplay, calling out panelists for switching arguments on stock catalysts and supply constraints ([15:05]).
• Market “velocity” and meme trading culture scrutinized—especial focus on how fast retail sentiment and flows can turn.
• Trump’s comments on Warsh illustrate political dimensions of monetary policy ([29:02]).
• Throughout, the tone remains energetic, with panelists offering frank, opinionated, and sometimes contrarian takes on crowded trades and market expectations.

---

Conclusion

This episode of Halftime Report delivered a real-time snapshot of market tumult as the new Fed Chair was announced, precious metals entered free fall, and the panelists made sense of “meme” trading dynamics, AI hype, and tech’s shifting fortunes. The conversation was fast-paced, opinionated, sometimes irreverent, but always aimed at helping investors navigate the news as it breaks.

Transcript

[Pippa Stevens]

Looking for a Valentine's gift she'll truly love. 1-800-Flowers.com knows what she wants. For 50 years, 1-800-Flowers.Com has helped guys get it right, delivering millions of fresh Valentine's roses nationwide with high quality bouquets guaranteed to last. Right now, when you buy one dozen premium roses, they'll double your bouquet to two dozen for free. Valentine's is coming fast, so don't wait until the last minute. Double your blooms today at 1-800-flowers.com sxm. That's 1-800-flowers. Com sxm.

[Capella University Announcer]

At Capella University, we believe accessible education can make a difference. That's why we offer scholarship opportunities to all eligible students. Un futuro diferente esta mas cerca de lo que cres con Capella University. Learn more at Capella. Edu.

[Scott Wapner]

I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 2012 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thank you very much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wagner front and center this hour a new Fed chair is named. Markets are reacting today to Kevin Warsh's nomination. Will trade that and of course the Apple aftermath along with the rest of tech today. Joining me for the hour, Stephanie Link, Jim Laventhal, Rob Seach and Josh Brown. Let's go to the markets where we are read across the board today with the Russell 2000 because rates watching that obviously and what's happening in some other areas of the market. The Russell's given back more than anything else but we do have declines across the board. All right, so Warsh is the nominee. Everybody knows that by now. The dollar's move today is interesting. Silver, let's just look at silver. Silver is getting obliterated. Gold is down too. But these have been show now the longer view so you can see the amazing unsustainable. Some have suggested run ups in all of. Why is this happening today? Well, there is a view that Fed independence is safe with Mr. Warsh and by the way, BlackRock's Rick Reeder would have delivered, I think the same sort of feeling in the markets of Mr. Reeder. He told me about not being chosen, quote this has been an incredible honor for me. I congratulate Kevin on his nomination and think he will serve the institution and our nation very well. I don't want to have a policy conversation. I want to have a market conversation. Gold and silver, a lot of people have been piling in there. A lot of Retail has been propelling silver's move. It's almost been meme ish. Is this over?

[Jim Laventhal]

It may be on pause, Scott, but you're exactly right to use the word memesh. Now, just a little backdrop. We've talked a lot on the show about how retail is no longer the dumb money. In fact, it's been very smart. What it's also been is very fast. And, and we see that in the options market, where silver in particular, over the last few weeks, the open option contracts have absolutely skyrocketed. And that's in part, in large part why it propelled the heights to which silver went. Now, let me be clear. The direction of silver, both to the upside and today to the downside, is definable by market forces, namely concerns about the dollar, concerns about the Fed independence, which may be put at least a little bit to rest today with the selection of Kevin Warsh. But the degree to which silver shot up and which come down is likely the speed with which retail players are accessing silver via the options market. And I'm telling you, the volume there has shot through the roof.

[Scott Wapner]

I mean, escalator up, elevator down. That's what they say, right. I wonder if we're going to end up, Rob, seeing something similar to that.

[Rob Seach]

Well, you certainly saw mania phase reached earlier this week, maybe even yesterday, when trading on silver options surpassed trading on NASDAQ options. I don't know that we've ever seen that in the past. Right. So when you have activity like that, it's an indicator of mania. I do think, you know, when you, when you look at assets that move in a parabolic way like that, you're going to see exactly what you talked about. But you need a catalyst.

[Scott Wapner]

This maybe works as a catalyst.

[Rob Seach]

I think it independence, I think it.

[Scott Wapner]

Is stamp on that appears to be a catalyst.

[Rob Seach]

It's not just that, though. It's that this is a guy that had hawkish policy during his tenure from 0600 11. The great news is he's a responsible adult in the room. He lived through the housing bubble and then ultimately the financial crisis that followed. He's shown a recent willingness to cut rates, I think in a recent and obviously enough to get President Trump to support him. But markets at least feel today that he's going to revert to his hard money roots. And if he does, I think that that's going to create some episodic challenges.

[Scott Wapner]

It's like, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. I may have gotten the inflation picture wrong. Multiple Times before. And I'm not going to be burned by the same thing in the next go round now that I'm in the biggest chair in the room, not, you know, one of the second tiers as a, as a Fed governor, you could.

[Rob Seach]

Argue that he was, you know, the change was positioning for this, for this role and that there could be a reversion, which I think broadly long term is healthy for the markets to have that independence.

[Scott Wapner]

But again, like, you know, for, for our viewers and the broader audience that's been piling into and playing the momentum.

[Jim Laventhal]

Right.

[Scott Wapner]

We've seen so much of a momentum game on Wall street at times, whether it's meme stuff or like this, what's happening, you never see this kind of rush into silver or gold real quick.

[Rob Seach]

It has sucked even assets away from crypto. I am telling crypto is under pressure.

[Scott Wapner]

It sucked, it sucked assets kind of away from a lot of different things. And yes, is this trade now done for the foreseeable future, Steph?

[Stephanie Link]

Maybe it does take a pause, like Jimmy was just saying, Scott, but I'm just happy to get the news out there and get the unknown to be known.

[Scott Wapner]

You ain't lying. We all are.

[Stephanie Link]

Right, I know. But the point being is that unknown and that hostility between Trump and Powell actually now, that might just go away with war. Right. And so if you have a nice disciplined relationship, things calm down just a little bit. Now, in terms of gold and silver, I actually think you've seen central bankers changing their asset allocation over the last couple of years, selling some U.S. treasuries and going into other asset classes like gold and silver. And then it just got exacerbated by retail following that momentum. I don't think you're going to see central bankers all of a sudden sell gold, sell silver. The difference between gold and silver, though, silver, half of it is it is an industrial commodity. And we just got some great manufacturing data, durable goods data, factory orders data and that. And I it's all supportive of using more silver, more copper and less, in a lesser degree, gold. So I think there's a reason to have exposure because of all the things I just mentioned. But I think the big catalyst was the central bank are starting to move assets away and maybe they just stop that. And so therefore you see the underlying commodities take a pause.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Josh, your view of all of this, again, we don't want to debate the kind of policy we're going to have really under, under Mr. Warsh if confirmed in the Senate, but nonetheless, what these specific trades Which I gather you probably have been asked about a lot over the last many weeks as we watch these things go parabolic.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah. Look, there's no, there's no need to debate policy because that has nothing to do with what's happening with, with prices today. It's just an excuse. Like we could. If gold and silver had done what they're doing today and there wasn't the announcement of Kevin Marsh, we would have found something else to decide is the explanation. The reality is it's not that complex of a situation. I was with Tom Lee last night and he had mentioned that on Wall street bets the numbers 1 and 2 most talked about tickers don't fall out of your chair when I tell you this were SLV and gld. So gold and silver. Yes. Central banks have been accumulating by the ton for years now. That's the primary trend. And then the trend got noticed by the momentum players and the retail and it got sucked into the casino, just got sucked into the algos. And that's. And that's the story. And whatever the trigger is is almost besides the point. I think what got revealed today is that there was a ton of unsophisticated money, committed money and a lot of leverage and boom. This is how it works. And I'll tell you. Gold down 7% today. Silver down 17. It's, it's remarkable in more than one way. Gold had its best ever one day return two days ago on when was up six and a half percent. That's the best ever back to the financial crisis and today down 7% will be the worst one day return since April of 2013. Having that happen back to back, that's, there's nothing fundamental about it. This is all, all leverage and I think it's very healthy quite frankly. So if you're a gold bull, silver bull doesn't mean it's over. What it does mean is a lot of dumb money got flushed out and now prices can reset and you can bet on that longer term uptrend if you want to.

[Rob Seach]

So Tom DeMarc would agree with Josh on that. By the way, one of the most famous technical strategists. He thinks the upside is pretty significant. I forget the target, but it is.

[Scott Wapner]

Sure. But the rate of the upside has been.

[Josh Brown]

That's right.

[Scott Wapner]

The rate insanity.

[Jim Laventhal]

That's right.

[Scott Wapner]

And that's I think what Josh is talking about. And also why the, the big burst up and the big burst down ends up happening because the insanity, you know, the move.

[Rob Seach]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

So the other big story I wanted to get to is Apple. And the reaction, if you want to call it that, to great earnings. What else do you want to say? I mean, they had staggering iPhone demand, they had a strong sales guide. IPhone revenues were up 23% year on year. New record high. China sales surged up 38%. Best quarter since the end of 2021. Services revenue up 14% to a new record high. The stock was down like eight consecutive weeks. Coming in to those numbers, dollars. That sounds to me like a blowout quarter. And yet the stock's reaction is that why did I say the word I? I didn't, I didn't. Everybody knew that. The iPhone's good and it's been good, but I mean, there's no great AI story yet to tell. And that's why the stock sits there sort of meandering around now.

[Jim Laventhal]

Right, can we call this flat today? I'm going to call it flat, down a point point, you know, one and a half percent. But I think the reason it's not up is the concerns that the excellent sales in the quarter and a decent projection going forward might be cannibalizing sales. That in the future when Gemini is really embedded and AI is really gaining traction, that maybe those sales will have been cannibalized by people who delayed for so long upgrading that they finally had to get around to it in the last quarter and in the coming quarter. Now, I don't think for one second that that interrupts the long term compounding potential of Apple, but it may just mean that there's no near term catalysts and it had run up quite a bit. I mean, let's face it, it had run up quite a bit on the, on the pretense that I was coming and now there isn't that much of a catalyst to get it going. So I don't think there's anything wrong with the stock, but it's just, it's not the stock that I wake up in the morning and say, oh, let's check the headlines on what's going on.

[Stephanie Link]

It's expensive though, at 31 times what for 13 to 16% total revenue growth.

[Jim Laventhal]

With you, the offset to that, as you know, and I agree with you, but the offset is they buy back shares like crazy.

[Stephanie Link]

Well, that's fine, but you know, they're only going to spend $18 billion. Only $18 billion next quarter. Right. Is that enough to start the whole discussion? I just don't, I don't think so. Not when you have the mag sevens, the other mag sixes, if you Will spending hundreds of billion dollars on Capex and an opex.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, I think the important thing though is while you're not seeing a big jump from those blowout numbers, you're not seeing a big decline because that's it. The iPhone put the strength of that segment put the floor under the stock. You could make the argument.

[Rob Seach]

I totally agree with you. We're not overweight the name, we're neutral the name because it's tough to be underweight in the index as you know, with such a fortress balance sheet and great management team. But the foundation has been set. The foundation has been stabilized in one of the things that goes unnoticed in the report is the outsized spending that they're doing in R and D which is still relatively low to the competitors. But still they're building off a platform base that is exceptional. And if you want to bring AI to an ecosystem, what better ecosystem that one that billions of people use every day. They will figure it out. We talked about this yesterday.

[Scott Wapner]

That's the. And that's the view of Alex Cancer which to who was on with me leading into the print on closing bell yesterday. They will figure it out 100%. The iPhone is strong enough that it's okay. They still have a grace period if you want to put it, put it that way. He used the term Goldilocks because of the strength in the iPhone is so good. And I told you these metrics of the services in China and what the sales are doing there that buys them more time to get it right.

[Rob Seach]

How is this different in different businesses obviously than the platform that we were talking about with Google being surpassed a year ago and no one wanted to look at it, no one figured it out.

[Jim Laventhal]

Well, I mean thank you for that, thank you for the follow through. That's fine. But I mean Apple has not had as bad a run as Google Alphabet.

[Rob Seach]

And Google was cheaper back then too. Alphabet rather.

[Jim Laventhal]

Yeah. And that's to Stephanie's point as well. I do think that you know there is some cannibalization. I already said that. I also think that today's lackluster response. I hear you it's not down more may be because people are kind of tired of hearing about supply constraints. And we heard it again. Obviously this is not like what happened to Microsoft yesterday which was a bloodbath. But I think investors don't want to hear anymore. Oh, I could have sold more but for supply constraints.

[Scott Wapner]

But didn't you make the whole your big passionate Red Bull induced argument yesterday on Microsoft that it was, it was exactly what you're saying. You shouldn't.

[Rob Seach]

I think he's.

[Scott Wapner]

You say that.

[Jim Laventhal]

So my point being, in neither case am I selling Microsoft softer. Apple. And this goes back to what I said.

[Scott Wapner]

Those are two different things altogether. We know that. You don't even need to say that.

[Jim Laventhal]

Okay.

[Scott Wapner]

Why is that relevant?

[Jim Laventhal]

Because if I go back to Tuesday when I was on with you, might have been Monday. But I said to you, good earnings reports from the Magic 7 might be met with tepid responses. You remember this, right? We had this discussion and that's what we're seeing.

[Scott Wapner]

But you blamed supply constraints, so to speak, on Microsoft yesterday. And your vociferous defense. Yes. Of that name. And today you're telling me that investors don't want to hear he's telling you the argument.

[Jim Laventhal]

I think you think I'm being red bullish when I try to stand my ground. I'm not. I'm just going to stand my ground and say this. In neither case have I sold shares of Apple or Microsoft. And what I've said in both cases, including Apple yesterday, is that this is a great long term compounder. And I'm going to say the same thing about Microsoft. Joshua and I spoke about this yesterday. Then it may be in the penalty box. And you said for a quarter on Microsoft. I said till the summer. I mean, kind of in the same ballpark. Both of these stocks, I don't think they're going to get crushed from here at all. But I don't think, as I said, penalty box. I just, I don't think that this either stock are the ones you wake up in the morning and say, oh, what's going on with Apple? What's going on with Microsoft? Maybe the share prices is getting going.

[Stephanie Link]

Either of you concerned that the replacement rate at Apple went to 5.2 years from 4? The replacement rate cycle is not, I mean, maybe people are waiting for the iPhone. I'm sure they are. But that's a big, big change.

[Jim Laventhal]

And they've thrown in the towel in the last quarter. I mean that 5.2 years, I'm probably one of them. At a certain point you've got to replace your phone, it cracks.

[Stephanie Link]

That's not happening as quickly though.

[Jim Laventhal]

It's not happening.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, we all know you probably walking.

[Rob Seach]

Around like he's with a 13 right now.

[Scott Wapner]

Got like the 11.

[Jim Laventhal]

Listen, I'm a loyal consumer, okay? I'm a lawyer.

[Scott Wapner]

Josh, what's your view?

[Josh Brown]

Here are the two most important. In addition to the sales beat and the revenue guide, Here are the two most important things, China region sales up almost 40% and I understand a lot of this, a lot of the sell side 17 they, they kind of don't care as much about China as maybe they once did or they don't really see it as that important of a driver. I think that's the wrong way to look at it. Here's a quote from Tim Cook. We set an all time record for upgraders in mainland China and we saw a double digit growth on switchers. That's a really powerful signal. The other thing there are now this is Also Tim Cook 2 1/2 billion iPhones, Macs and other Apple devices which is up from 2.35 billion one year ago today. This is really critical because the reason the stock has the multiple it has is not necessarily because of the upgrade. You know how long it takes to upgrade a phone. It's just the sheer number of these devices and that lock into the ecosystem and that will not change. That's what people care about the most. And I think you know the way that the stock has kind of dribbled lower going into the number. This is probably a clearing event that I wouldn't be surprised to see this green by the end of the day.

[Scott Wapner]

I need to, I need to make a correction.

[Eamon Jabbers]

I do.

[Scott Wapner]

I misstated Jim's ownership model of the iPhone when I suggested that he's toting around an 11. It's a 14 in a loyal self described loyal customer who knows about these products so well. It's a 14 pro walking around with a 14.

[Jim Laventhal]

Okay. Like everybody in my family credibility is.

[Scott Wapner]

Highly question all of a sudden.

[Jim Laventhal]

Well actually goes.

[Scott Wapner]

You need an upgrade cycle.

[Jim Laventhal]

You know what, you want me to call you right now but I'll bet your phone rings.

[Scott Wapner]

No. So Eric Woodring of Morgan Stanley is going to be on closing bell with me today. We look forward to that. He talks about the iPhone outperforming their estimates. Product mix appears to be underappreciated. Not out of the woods yet but we feel incrementally better about the setup for the stock. Again we need more on AI. Everybody knows that. But maybe this buys the company some time to do that. We look ahead to next week when we do get Alphabet and Amazon. Alphabet is on Wednesday, Amazon's on Thursday. The Street's positive as you might expect on both going in. Steph, what's your, what's your outlook here for Amazon?

[Stephanie Link]

I'm frustrated with Amazon. It's only up 4% this year, but it's only up 1% in the past. Year, year. And I hope this is going to be the year and I hope this is going to be the quarter that it will confirm. US is poised to see acceleration from 20% to maybe the mid-20s because they've doubled the capacity. But it's a show me on that. And I think that's, that's what everyone is focused on in this quarter is and the trajectory of the growth because if they can do that, that I think is like a multiple enhancing event. And that's what it's all, that's what it's going to take for the stock to probably start to do a little bit better.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, so we'll talk a lot about that next week as we lead you into that. And I don't want to eat up a lot of today's a block doing that. I do want to talk about memory, which has been on fire. First of all, the SMH is on pace for 8 out of 9 positive months. SanDisk is soaring today on its results and its guide, Micron has been unbelievable. Look at Micron. That Stock is up 53% year to date. So it's giving a smidge back. Big deal. Look at what I told you about the chart of this thing. That's unbelievable. Six months, 277% Teradyne target raised to 280 from 270 reiterated by Stifel. You own that?

[Stephanie Link]

Yeah. I mean the stock has been up 113% in the past year. It's up 28% year to date. I do not like it going into the quarter because of the expectations are so high. But AI is driving structural growth for test equipment. AI needs 100% test equipment versus traditional semiconductors of about 20 to 30% test equipment. And so they are certainly going to continue to benefit from that as well as they have customer wins that I don't think are appreciated from Nvidia and us. And I think the quarter will beat. I have no question about the growth. It's the expectations at this point.

[Scott Wapner]

Scott, we're looking at KLA Corp. Today as well. It is down. They did beat on strong demand. Rob, you own this name we've talked so much about Lam, applied materials and KLA. Lam's up 41% year to date. KLA is up 21 and applied is up 29. What about KLA?

[Rob Seach]

You know this. It was up going into the day. 134% over the last year. 34% year to date. Results were a modest beat. Talks to you about how much you have to deliver when stocks are Priced for perfection. It trades at a 44 times P E. Obviously that's not where this group typically trades. The outlook remains solid though.

[Scott Wapner]

I'll say. You know what the JP Morgan takes their target to today? 1950 bucks.

[Rob Seach]

We've actually just recently modestly trimmed this position because we're a little worried about the extended valuations despite the healthy fundamentals and it's just a matter of managing risk. But this is a high quality equipment company and benefits from rising foundry Capex which is going to continue to happen because they're helping, you know, make manufacturing yields more efficient.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's talk about software too and not just this is not just a Microsoft effect. Yes, many of these names got hit hard yesterday as Microsoft suffered one of its worst days in a long time. ServiceNow maybe played a role in that too. That stock was down a lot. Salesforce played a role in that. That stock was down a lot. Both of those along with that group are down a lot year to date. Software coming off its worst day Since April of 2025, worst month since April of 2022 firmly now in a bear market there are some that are loved. Things that are not so bad on that list like Snowflake's down 9%, Steph's in that reiterated top pick. IBM is trying for its best week since October. The stock was running. We waxed on it yesterday. We did and we were saying that Arvin Christian doesn't walk around with a leather jacket on and people don't mention his name all the time.

[Stephanie Link]

That's good.

[Scott Wapner]

And he doesn't sign autographs everywhere he goes. But maybe he should.

[Stephanie Link]

Maybe he should.

[Scott Wapner]

Because if you look at the longer trajectory of this name after literally doing nothing both in their revenue growth and the stock, to the frustration of many, many long term shareholders, that stock's done that.

[Rob Seach]

Stephen, I bought this very similar times on, on the show.

[Stephanie Link]

I think it was just Arvin got got the job.

[Scott Wapner]

Now if I recall there were 50 few years ago maybe it was where IBM was the best performing name that year and people were just starting to get their arms around, okay, they've, they've successfully integrated Red Hat and they have a roadmap because they have arguably been dabbling around in AI longer than most. Right.

[Stephanie Link]

What do you think? Wait, just wait until quantum computing, that's a 2029, 2030 story and they're the number one player in Quantum computing. He's done all the right things. He's focused on AI data center, quantum blockchain, all of the things in software this Company now does about 75% in software and consulting. It's not a mainframe company anymore, although they did quite well with mainframes. I never pay for that, though, because it's such a cyclical business. But they grew software 14%. They had consulting growth for the second consecutive quarter, which Accenture did not. And they are taking share from Accenture. And then you have their. Their Gen AI book is now at $12.5 billion to exit the year and free cash flow is they actually raised it. So everything is kind of clicking for IBM. The only issue is it's a little expensive at 29 times earnings, but the growth is changing and the complexity of the company is changing as well.

[Rob Seach]

That's what I was going to say. It's the fastest growth they've seen in the top line in nine years or 10 years. And they are kind of firing on all cylinders. So I would argue that the multiple may justify the premium right now.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, let's take a break and when we come back, we'll do our calls of the day. We're talking everything from coffee to cars to the C suite. We're back after this.

[Capella University Announcer]

Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning, and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella. Edu.

[Scott Wapner]

What made you confident that you could.

[Stephanie Link]

Do something that hadn't been done before?

[Pippa Stevens]

I have no fear of failure.

[Capella University Announcer]

Trailblazing women, changing the game.

[Pippa Stevens]

One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.

[Stephanie Link]

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

[Pippa Stevens]

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

[Stephanie Link]

Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

[Capella University Announcer]

Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday. Wherever you get your podcast.

[Scott Wapner]

Calls of the day, let's talk Starbucks. Reiterated by 105. The target after Stifel, that is, after investor day. Earnings were this week, too. And you know, we mentioned multiple times this week that Stephanie Link wrote something special for CNBC Pro. I urge you to go check that out. She obviously continues to make a bullish case for this name, which I would assume that you are going to do right now.

[Stephanie Link]

Yeah, and I'm actually going to buy more when I can. I think they did a really good job at getting back to the historical earnings algo that they have had historically. Same store sales of 3%, mid single digits, total revenues, high teens, earnings growth. The one missing link that is going on right now is operating margins. They're only at 10%. They were 17% pre Covid. I think over the next two or three years they'll be able to get back to 17%. That gets you $4 plus in earnings power. That brings down the multiple at about 23 times. Historically, the stock has traded at 28, 29 times. So I like what the CEO is doing. He's got a phenomenal track record. The stock should be bought, especially with it down post the earnings.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, we have some breaking news out of Washington. Eamon Jabbers has that for us now. Amy, tell us more.

[Eamon Jabbers]

Scott, that's right. President Trump talking to reporters in the Oval Office just over the past couple of moments. And the president was asked if Kevin Warsh had made any commitments to him in terms of interest rates and lowering them in order to get the job as Fed chair. The president said no. Take a listen to what he said.

[Jim Laventhal]

But we talk about it and I've been following him and I don't want to ask him that question. I think it's inappropriate. Probably, probably would be allowed, but I want to keep it nice and pure. But he certainly wants to cut rates. I've been watching him for a long time.

[Eamon Jabbers]

So you heard the president there say no, but he does believe that Warsh is somebody who does want to lower interest rates. And so that clearly sets up a presidential expectation of war should he be confirmed to that position. Scott and of course, the president made a couple of other comments here, including praising Kevin Warsh for his looks, saying looks don't matter, but he's got the right look for the job. So to the extent that matters, the president commenting on the appearance of the new Fed chair as well.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. Okay.

[Jim Laventhal]

Thank you.

[Scott Wapner]

DAMON schwabis, Washington all right, let's continue our list. Uber, I mean, what, what is whatever the Target trim to 110 from 119 reiterated by it at bank of America. Josh, give me something.

[Josh Brown]

I think the salient point here is that a lot of people are bullish on the fundamentals, but worried about one year, two years, three years from now because it's unclear whether or not Uber will have made sufficient third party deals and enough progress on their own autonomous plans to have the app be able to withstand new challengers like obviously Waymo and of course Tesla. And I don't know when that, I don't know when those clouds go away, to be honest with you, because it's a sentiment thing. The fundamentals are on fire. They report next week they'll do 14 billion in revenue. They'll do $1.8 billion in cash flow. They're buying back stock. This thing is a mobile money making machine. And from my perspective, autonomous driving is probably one of the biggest drivers of potential upside. When you understand how much of the take rate Uber keeps versus how much they have to pay to the people driving cars if they can get 10% or even penetration of autonomous vehicles on their network, obviously it's a better deal for the consumer because price comes down and Uber probably keeps more of it. So I see autonomy as bullish, but apparently most of the street doesn't. And that's why you're seeing people saying yeah, we still like it but we're worried. So lower price target, you know, good for them. I'm on the other side of the trade.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. Even over upgraded to a buy today. I'm surprised that Guggenheim didn't already have that. 910 is the target. Doesn't like everybody have a buy on this? Including Link Capital Management?

[Stephanie Link]

Yeah, they had a really good quarter and the stock sold off. Orders were up 65% versus 55% the prior quarter. Their book to bill was two times. I haven't seen that yet since they were spun out. Their total revenue guide, they raised that as well. Margins go higher, they're sold out in gas power until 2028. Why would you not want to own a stock like that?

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. Gilead Target to 146 from 114 outperform learning bottom line, we're raising our target to reflect our growing confidence in the preventative HIV drug that they have, the launch and the appreciation of the company's pipeline.

[Rob Seach]

Rob, this name we've talked a lot about on the show, it's performed incredibly well. We've continued to add a good vital to it over the last several quarters. Been a bright spot in the space with consistent growth in their core HIV platform and obviously a lot of things happening oncology there as well. And it's not that expensive. It trades at a P of 16 times. So we like the name.

[Scott Wapner]

All right. Pippa Stevens has the headlines for us. Tell us more.

[Pippa Stevens]

Hey, Scott. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres is warning ambassadors that the organization is at the the risk of imminent financial collapse. That's according to a letter seen by Reuters. Guterres cited unpaid fees and a budget rule requiring the return of unspent money, while not mentioning the US in his letter. The Trump administration has slashed funding of UN Agencies and refused to make mandatory payments to UN Budgets. The FBI is now leading the investigation into the fatal shooting of Alex Preddy by federal agents in Minneapolis last weekend. DHS confirmed the move to NBC News. Homeland Security Investigations had been leading the probe. Separately, the Customs and Boredom Border Patrol Office of Professional Responsibility is also conducting its own internal review. And Costco is facing a proposed class action Lawsuit over chicken. 2 People in California are suing the wholesale retail giant, claiming false advertising over its 499 Kirkland Signature seasoned rotisserie chicken containing no preservatives. The lawsuit says there are two preservatives present. Costco tells USA Today it has removed the signage and says those two ingredients are approved by food safety authorities.

[Scott Wapner]

Scott Pippa, thank you, Pippa Stevens. Coming up next, re energize new all time highs today for some of the committee's oil names. The energy segment is back in play. We're up almost 13% this month. We're back after this.

[Capella University Announcer]

Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella. Edu.

[Scott Wapner]

What made you confident that you could.

[Stephanie Link]

Do something that hadn't been done before?

[Pippa Stevens]

I have no fear of failure.

[Capella University Announcer]

Trailblazing women, changing the game.

[Pippa Stevens]

One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.

[Stephanie Link]

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

[Pippa Stevens]

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

[Stephanie Link]

Life is short and you just got to think big to accomplish big things.

[Capella University Announcer]

Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players new episodes every Tuesday. Wherever you get your podcasts.

[Jim Laventhal]

We'Re back.

[Scott Wapner]

Exxon and Chevron both reporting earnings beats today. The stocks going in opposite directions. Let's take Exxon first because stock is lower, lower oil prices. They beat. They achieved its highest full year net production in more than 40 years.

[Jim Laventhal]

Jim Laventhal, yeah, I think the reason it's down today is simply that it's been up so much.

[Scott Wapner]

Did hit a record high yesterday.

[Jim Laventhal]

I mean it's up 15% even after today's decline for the year to date. We can go through the numbers. I mean the five year track record, it's doubled the S&P 500 on an annual basis and there's every indication that it's going to continue. Now I actually think it's maybe a little silly for me to point out that crude oil prices are at a what seems like a one year high. Natural gas prices, we know have shot through the roof. And the reason I say it might be silly is because that can be given back if there is no strike on Iran and if warm weather appears. I think the more pertinent thing is when you look at ExxonMobil, there are so many pistons firing in this engine, whether it's exploration and production, whether it's chemicals, refinery. I don't have time to go through the long list, but the punchline of this is over the next four years they're going to increase cash flow by 35 billion on top of free cash flow in the Last year of 25 billion. 60 billion in 4 years of free cash flow. I mean the market cap and I've got to look it up. It's a $600 billion market cap. That's great. Like, let's hang on to this stock.

[Scott Wapner]

Thought you said you weren't going to go on and on. I'm just kidding.

[Jim Laventhal]

There's a lot more.

[Scott Wapner]

I could have chevron 52 week high yesterday as well. And you see that stock is in the green today. They beat as well. Well, their production hit a record too. That's in Venezuela. Upside. Steph, what do you think about this name?

[Stephanie Link]

I mean, I thought Chevron was better than Exxon. I really do. I really do. I think. And the market's probably telling you that too.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah.

[Stephanie Link]

Because production growth of 21% candidly beat expectations. They beat on throughput upstream and downstream across the board with lower costs. And free cash flow grew. Adjusted free cap, free cash flow grew 35%. They increased the dividend. Now you're getting a north of 4% dividend yield and the stock trades at 11 times EBITDA. So I still like it. I think this was one of the better quarters I've seen from them in quite some time.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. Robby. Devon Energy and Kotera said to be in advance talks on a combo according to Reuters. You have Devin?

[Rob Seach]

We do. It's one of the recent buys that we talked about on the show in December and it's up a little bit year to date. Not surprised, given how attractive the fundamentals are in this space and the potential for synergies and an economy of the economies of scale that a merger like this would likely create. So I think this, this, these are great businesses. I think, you know, what's surprising to me is without the price of oil moving much, some of these stocks have done really, really well. And you kind of need to see that follow through in energy prices for it to be sustained.

[Scott Wapner]

Josh, your thought, one going one way, one going the other, but energy going up almost in unison. Top sector this year and we said best month since October of 22.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah. These are the most under owned stocks in the market. The energy sector as a percentage of the S and P has shrunk more than any other sector in this post Covid era. It's, and it's incredible when you realize even without a crude rally, even without a major natural gas rally, although I know it's rallied a lot going into the snowstorm, these companies are executing flawlessly and they don't have that tailwind of commodities at their back. If that changes, if oil is the gold of 2026, all of them will be substantially higher. I'm an Exxon. I agree with Jim. The Stock's up like 30 straight points. It makes sense that it's down a dollar sell on the news, but the real investors are not selling this name.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, Santoli, he's next and he has his midday word when we come back. All right, we're back. Senior markets commentator and overtime co anchor Michael Santoli is at the desk for his midday word. I'm not sure what you know to really make of a lot of these market moves today. There seems to be some knee jerk worsh reactions. $Gold and especially silver. How do you read things?

[Michael Santoli]

Just a little bit of a shiver of financial condition tightening. But really out at the margins we're talking about, the dollar index is up 3/4 of a percent from the lows a couple of days ago. You see how tightly wound the precious metals trade was. You see small caps which are Russell 2000 is a spec instrument. That stuff is, is obviously draining away and it's a little bit worse than it looks under the surface. More broadly, it's like you know, 70, 80% downside volume. So there is a little bit of a, of a general, you know, better to sell type of mode right now. I don't think people are trying to price anything specific with regard to wars. I think it's just kind of like, okay, the reflex is maybe after some cuts in the first few months, he'll Maybe lean toward a little bit of a more hard money, smaller balance sheet approach. But it's not really dramatic. I mean, we're bouncing the dollar off a four year low. The long end of the treasury curve. It's just barely up from where it was. We're steepening. So I think all that stuff makes sense here, but I think it more tells me the market's been living lucky this month. It's rotating around. We're up 1% in the S and P after the first month of the year. That's great. But a lot had to go right for it.

[Scott Wapner]

What do you make of silver? I feel like that's the most interesting thing to watch.

[Michael Santoli]

It's just mean bubble dynamics that are at play. So it's just an unwind of this fever that we got from for a long time. And the types of folks who felt like you want to stampede into silver at 100 bucks an ounce are probably the ones who feel like the dollar debasement trade is one way and we have all these other kind of atmospheric conditions that are going to make me get redeemed on this trade. And yesterday I keep pointing at 25 billion in SLV ETF traded.

[Scott Wapner]

Right.

[Michael Santoli]

It's a $60 billion ETF.

[Scott Wapner]

I know, but silver is not supposed to trade like GameStop did in the heart of me mania.

[Michael Santoli]

No, it's not. And it has in the past. I mean it did in 1980. Look, I think the 50 day average, what is it, like 75? I mean it would be like no big deal on a long term chart for it to revisit that. It's just painful if it happens in two days.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, exactly. That's what we talked about earlier. Top of the show. It's the velocity of this whole move up and then at least today down it has people saying like we are whoa.

[Michael Santoli]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, I'll see you later. Yep, that's Mike Santoli. Setup next. Let's do the setup. Talking about some earnings next week outside of the mega cabs, Disney is on Monday morning. Jimmy, you own it. I the most intriguing thing to me feels at this point like are we finally going to get Iger successor named?

[Jim Laventhal]

Yeah, I mean there's a perception that it should be sometime in the month of February. They've got, I believe an analyst day or an investor day coming up in early March. Seems like it's taken a long time. They have to know who the who the choice is by now. So let's just get it. Let's rip the band aid off. It shouldn't even be a band Aid to raise rip off. As an investor though, what I do remark is this is the point in holding a stock like Disney where you wonder is it a consolidation or something worse? Now let me be clear. I think it's just a consolidation in the share price and the stock has gotten extremely cheap. I think they're doing everything right with streaming. The theme parks, the cruise businesses are going great. So I'm holding this. But it is the point where one's metal is tested in holding it.

[Scott Wapner]

We shall see. Estee Lauder is Thursday before for the bell. Stephanie Link.

[Stephanie Link]

Yeah, I'm wondering if they can continue to see better organic growth. Last quarter it was 3%. They're guiding for like flat to 2. I think they can do 3% beauty reimagined is a strategy for them that has been gaining momentum. But also they need to see cooperation from not only U.S. strength, but also China. Both of those regions are 50% of revenues.

[Scott Wapner]

You got a busy Thursday morning because Rockwell Automation is also. So what's your, what's your take here?

[Stephanie Link]

Yeah, I mean I think last quarter they grew organic growth at 13% versus the prior quarter of three. So they're making momentum changes too, given all the new products that they have underway. Operating margins expanded over 200 basis points as well. I think they can get to the 23 and a half operating margin number over time. But we're going to have to get commentary to feel comfortable about that on the call.

[Scott Wapner]

All right. Amgen's Tuesday, Rob.

[Rob Seach]

So in terms of Amgen, I think we're looking for a modest 4% revenue growth guidance. It would alleviate some of the concerns around the biosimilars in the names. In that name. And an update on the evolution of their GLP1 drugs which they have a number in the pipeline. Six phase three trials underway.

[Scott Wapner]

That surprise you there?

[Eamon Jabbers]

You good?

[Jim Laventhal]

You good?

[Rob Seach]

I was expecting something else.

[Scott Wapner]

You don't say. You hide it.

[Rob Seach]

Was it that obvious?

[Scott Wapner]

Two finals next. All right, 3 o' clock Eastern. Today we have a full deck. Tom Lee, Jeremy Siegel, Eric Woodring, Roger Ferguson, Oswatimotorin. We got a lot to talk about. I hope you'll join me at 3 o' clock Eastern Time to do just that. Josh Brown, your final trade for us today is what?

[Josh Brown]

Breaking my own rule. Rocket is very red today. I think the sell off is based on stupid stuff. I'll probably add to it at some point. I like it right here.

[Scott Wapner]

All right.

[Rob Seach]

The man who did he not do his final trade, chastised me yesterday.

[Scott Wapner]

Red on the board.

[Rob Seach]

Now mine is green. I'm going to go in.

[Scott Wapner]

He did say you'd break it, and that's what he was referring to. Gilead is you.

[Rob Seach]

That's me. I'm going green.

[Scott Wapner]

Wow, that's really strong. Today.

[Jim Laventhal]

On Holdings. Will report in a couple of weeks. Should sow great holiday sales.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, good stuff.

[Stephanie Link]

Stephanie Lake synopsis. I don't own it yet. It's on my radar screen.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, good stuff. I will see everybody. Three o' clock again. We'll track this market. We are read across the board. The exchange is now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live. Weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

[Capella University Announcer]

All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.comhalftimereportdisclaimer.

[Pippa Stevens]

Not sure if you have the experience to start your dream job? Good news. These days it's the skills that count. Udemy can help you get those in demand. Skills? Want to be an AI mastermind? Learn with us. Game Developer. We've got you covered. AWS Certified Cloud Practitioner. We can help you prep. You'll learn from real world experts who love what they do so that you can love what you do. Go to udemy.com for the skills to get you started and get set for your dream job.