Halftime Report: The Committee Reacts to the New Tariffs

CNBC | Aired: September 26, 2025

Host: Dominic Chu (in for Scott Wapner)
Panel: Steve Weiss, Jason Snipe, Jim Leventhal
Guests: Eamon Javers, Emily Wilkins, Brian Belsky (BMO), Stephanie Link, David Abeles (TaylorMade CEO)

Overview

This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report centers on President Trump’s announcement of sweeping new tariffs starting October 1st and the looming government shutdown with no funding agreement in sight. The investment committee dissects the likely market, economic, and portfolio impacts of these dynamics, digests signs from fund flows and new S&P 500 forecasts, and offers actionable sector and stock insights.

1. Breaking News: The New Tariffs & Policy Update

[01:57–03:28]

New Tariffs Announcement

• Eamon Javers: President Trump announces multiple new tariffs, going into effect October 1:
  • 100% tariff on all branded or patented pharmaceutical imports (exempting companies building in the US; applies to new projects).
  • 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks.
  • 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and related products.
  • 30% tariff on upholstered furniture.
  • Initiation of Section 232 investigations into robotics, industrial machinery, and medical devices.
• Trump also recognizes the negative impacts on American farmers, promising a mechanism to transfer tariff revenue to them—“the mechanism of all that, how much money is at stake? All that still TBD at this point.” [02:52]

Government Shutdown Update

• Emily Wilkins: A shutdown appears highly likely as both sides remain entrenched; first full shutdown since 2013 is possible.
  • Key impacts if shutdown occurs: No jobs data, IPO/SEC process delays, no pay for federal workers and contractors, closure of national parks, and up to $1B per week in travel industry losses.
  • “Threatening massive federal layoffs for employees that could impact hundreds of thousands of workers.” [04:35]
  • “Guidance to the agencies is to not reduce workforce for programs in line with Trump’s priorities, but it doesn’t make it clear exactly which agencies that would be.” [04:56]

2. Committee Reaction: Are Markets Underestimating Tariff and Shutdown Risks?

[06:01–15:27]

Shutdown: Markets Shrug (for Now)

• Steve Weiss:
  • “I’ve been doing this show…maybe this is the 12th forecasted government shutdown. And guess what, the market’s a lot higher than at any point during those last 12 years...this will resolve itself.” [06:07]
  • “Could happen. What’s new is a president unwilling to meet with the leadership of the other party.” [06:35]

Tariffs: Market Shrugs, But Price Pressure Looms

• Drug stocks actually rose on the tariff news; markets “don’t take (Trump’s) pronouncements seriously.”
• “What every company here has done has used those tariff levels as a pricing umbrella to raise prices...That’s the canary in the coal mine... troubling as the Fed decides whether inflation is just temporary…” [08:02]

Industries to Watch under Tariffs

• Dominic Chu & Jason Snipe:
  • Drug companies with US-centric manufacturing and supply chains outperformed; those more exposed to imports underperformed [09:20–09:37].
• Jason Snipe:
  • “Tariffs haven’t hit the tape quite yet,” due to prior inventory build-ups—consumer will feel the impact in coming quarters. [09:37]
  • “It is a consumption tax.” [10:42]

Why Has the Consumer (and Market) Remained Resilient?

• Jim Leventhal:
  • “If you’re in the upper half you’ve enjoyed one heck of a market rally here…the lower half, yes, inflation is hurting you...but you are employed, which means you are consuming and consumption is 70% of the economy.” [11:15]
  • “Second quarter GDP was revised up to 3.8%...third quarter as predicted by the Atlanta Fed forecast is now 3.9%... this economy shows no sign of slowing down.” [11:32]
  • Corporate profit margins “are at record levels” [12:05]

3. Bubble, Boom, or Just the Beginning? Tech, AI, and Market Valuations

[13:31–18:44]

Have Markets Decoupled from Traditional Data?

• Steve Weiss:
  • Even with downward jobs revisions, “the economy was still intact and the markets were still making record highs…” [12:52]
  • Markets “seem to be relatively immune to valuation and take a long-term view because every recovery has been a V-shaped recovery since 2008.” [13:34]
  • “Are we in a bubble for AI spending? And I would say unquestionably, yes. Do I see the bubble popping...soon? I don’t.” [14:36]
  • Cites a robotics startup that went “from a billion and a half to $38B valuation, no commercial product and no revenue.” [15:06]

1999 or 1997? Bubble Comparisons

• Jim Leventhal:
  • “My opinion…we’re in 1997, not 1999…Are we going to end in a bubble? Almost certainly…But if I look at these valuations…Nvidia…29, 30 times…the growth justifies it.” [16:35–16:56]
  • “Surveys show the penetration in terms of who’s actually using AI is around 15%...indicates there is a lot more room to use this than just the average consumer going on to ChatGPT.”

Guest View (Brian Belsky, BMO): Bubble Talk Overdone

• “Bubble is probably the most overused term in our industry…not everyone is making money.” [18:44]
• Tech sector today: “very different than they were in 99, 2000. They have cash…pay dividends…great cash flow…From an earnings perspective, tech has become the most discernible consistent earner in the entire market.” [19:29]
• Raises S&P 500 target to 7,000; sees 2025 as the start of a Goldilocks period similar to 1995–96. [20:52]

4. Market Fuel: Fund Flows, Cash Levels, and Earnings

[21:15–25:42]

Cash Waiting on Sidelines?

• Dominic Chu:

  • BofA data: third highest ever global equity inflows in last two weeks, private client portfolios at highest equity weighting since March 2022.
  • “$10 trillion in money market cash on the sidelines right now." [21:15]

• Jason Snipe:

  • “There’s absolutely fuel…”—seasonality, FOMO (fear of missing out) on the rally, year-end chase, impending Fed rate cuts – all reasons money could be put to work. [22:16]

Are Flows Predictive?

• Steve Weiss:
  • “We never follow up with what the correlation is to market direction…it’s not worth having the conversation other than the wow factor.” [23:23]

Belsky:

- Fund flow support is clear in “passive” money, boosting indices; upgraded to bull case because “fundamental work says that earnings are better than everybody thought…earnings are going to be at double digits in 2026.” [25:30]

5. Where’s the Opportunity? Stocks & Sectors to Play Now

[26:03–30:07]

Beyond Tech: Financials, Industrials, and Health Care

• Jim Leventhal:

  • Financials and industrials “have done well so far and are likely to continue…energy is showing signs of life…materials could see a catch up.” [26:03]
  • Health care is “the biggest sleeper area…A quintessential stock picker sector.” [26:50]

• Jason Snipe:

  • Likes health care: “AbbVie…one of our favorite biopharma names…Optum is a very profitable sector.” [27:46]

• Steve Weiss:

  • Participating in United Health, but preference remains on “big technology companies…the strong just keep getting stronger…they control their own fate.” [28:32, 28:48]

Tech: Focus on Hyperscalers

• “It’s at the hyperscale level…no doubt in my mind that they’re overvalued…but…they’ll catch up to it as their numbers continue to grow.” [29:46]

6. Rates and Growth: Does the Market Need Cuts?

[30:07–31:51]

• Jim Leventhal: “Do we need lower rates? No, of course not…3.9% GDP, 4.3% unemployment…” [30:19]

• Jason Snipe: “No, definitely not…earnings growth is really strong.” [30:33]

• Steve Weiss:

  • “It’s…what’s the neutral rate?…I do believe that regardless of where rates go, inflation is going to continue to pick up…labor costs will continue to rise for a lot of companies, will continue to shrink for others that take advantage of AI…” [30:53, 31:43]

7. Notable Trades & Stock Takes

[32:07–35:59]

Stephanie Link (via phone):

• Sold Freeport McMoRan: “Lowered output by 35%…probably dead money now.”
• Bought Antofagasta: “A pure play on copper…excellent execution…solid balance sheet…trades at 8.6x EBITDA.” [32:07–33:36]
• Bullish copper overall: “If you believe in AI, you need data centers…we need a heck of a lot more…probably have to get to 30,000 by 2025." [33:55]
• Bought Teradyne: “Semiconductor testing company and robotics play…partnership with Amazon…expecting $7–9 in earnings power by 2028.” [34:38]

8. Earnings Highlights & Stock-specific Remarks

[39:16–43:44]

Delta Airlines:

• Jim Leventhal: Praises cleaned-up balance sheet, expects buybacks, notes strong free cash flow, calls 9x forward P/E “too cheap for fundamentals.” [39:49–41:27]

Costco:

• Jason Snipe: “Double beat” on earnings, strong e-commerce, 14% Y/Y membership fee income growth. “More than half of new members are below 40”—bullish for long-term growth.
• Concern: “A third of goods are imported, let’s see how tariffs hit.” [42:18–42:41]

Netflix:

• Steve Weiss: “One of the levers…still got lots of capital…fund forays into extending reach…adds another lever to the story.” (re: new sports streaming deals) [43:10]

9. Energy Sector: Renewed Value?

[45:24–46:54]

• Jim Leventhal: Views integrated oils (ExxonMobil, Chevron) as resilient in all environments; likes pipeline companies such as Cheniere; sees long-term value post-2020 crash. [45:42–46:54]

10. Special Feature: Ryder Cup Business & Consumer Strength in Golf

[47:50–51:53]

• David Abeles (TaylorMade CEO):
  • Ryder Cup “inspires Western markets” and leads to a “meaningful bump in our business during this week.”
  • Sunday Red (Tiger Woods apparel): “Almost sold out…in a couple of days.”
  • “We are seeing strong consumption, continued strength at the consumer level, compounded by the strength and momentum we’ve built in our brands.” [50:31]
  • “The two primary metrics in golf…participation…total participants…seeing both of those on the rise in 2025.” [51:12]

11. Final Trades [52:19]:

• Jim Leventhal: ExxonMobil – “Stealth trade going on in energy.”
• Jason Snipe: Amazon – “Will reaccelerate this quarter.”
• Steve Weiss: “Going with the winner” – not specified, suggests mega-cap tech.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Steve Weiss: “This plays out every time—shutdown or tariffs—the market climbs the wall of worry, and trades higher.” [06:07]
• Jim Leventhal: “Are we going to end in a bubble? Almost certainly…But we’re in 1997, not 1999.” [16:35]
• Brian Belsky: “Bubble is probably the most overused term in our industry…these are not 1999 tech companies.”
• Stephanie Link: “I want to own copper…this is a play on AI, the grid, and a housing cycle we haven’t yet seen.” [33:55]
• David Abeles: “We are seeing strong consumption, continued strength at the consumer level, compounded by the strength and momentum we’ve built in our brands.” [50:31]

Key Timestamps

• Tariffs Announcement: 01:57–03:28
• Government shutdown risk explained: 03:40–05:28
• Committee initial reactions (risks): 06:01–10:42
• Consumer resilience & GDP: 10:42–12:52
• Bubble discussion & AI valuations: 13:31–18:44
• Belsky, BMO: S&P 500 targets and ‘Goldilocks’: 18:44–21:15
• Fund flows/cash deployment: 21:15–25:42
• Sector picks (healthcare, tech): 26:03–30:07
• Stock trades w/ Stephanie Link: 32:07–35:59
• Delta/Costco/Netflix: 39:16–43:44
• Energy trade focus: 45:24–46:54
• TaylorMade Golf CEO interview: 47:50–51:53
• Final trades: 52:19

Summary

This episode underscores how markets are growing increasingly numb to Washington drama (shutdowns and tariffs) while keeping an eye on sector advantages (domestic pharma, tech mega-caps), consumer resilience, and the AI-fueled expansion in valuation. Committee members urge stock picking, particularly in healthcare, energy, and hyperscalers, even as they debate whether we’re sowing the seeds of a new bubble. Key guest views see further room for upside, with both earnings and participation broadening beneath the headline indices.

For listeners: Whether you’re worried about tariffs hitting your portfolio, searching for the next sleeper sector, or wondering if the AI/tech boom is sustainable, this episode arms you with a clear-eyed take—rooted in seasoned experience, lively debate, and actionable detail.