The Committee’s Playbook for New Highs 6/26/25

Summary

Halftime Report: The Committee’s Playbook for New Highs (June 26, 2025)

Introduction On the June 26, 2025, episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report, host Scott Wapner engages with top investors Josh Brown, Jenny Harrington, Shannon Sokotia, and Rob Secchen to dissect the current market dynamics as the S&P 500 approaches new highs. The discussion delves into the momentum-driven market, individual stock performances, investor sentiment, and emerging trends in both traditional and alternative asset classes.

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Market Overview: Momentum Drives the Market Higher Scott Wapner opens the discussion by highlighting the market's robust performance, noting, “We are on pace now for its best May to June stretch since 1997, up near 10%” (01:57). The sentiment is largely positive, with the market steadily climbing despite underlying uncertainties.

Momentum as the Playbook Josh Brown emphasizes that the market’s ascent is propelled by momentum, a consistent strategy since the market bottomed. He states, “Momentum factor is far and away the best performing factor. Nothing's even close up 16% year to date” (02:00). He explains that approximately 44% of S&P 500 stocks are outperforming the index year-to-date, underscoring the strength of momentum investing.

High-Performing Stocks: Leaders of the Climb Scott Wapner points out several high-performing stocks contributing to the market's upward trajectory:

• Vistra: Up 82% since April 8 (03:29)
• NRG: Up 79% since April 8 (03:29)
• Broadcom: Up 69% since April 8 (03:29)
• Microchip: Preferred stocks up 99% (03:29)
• Coinbase: Achieved a 52-week high, up 127% (03:29)
• Seagate, Palantir, Jabil, Amphenol: All reached record highs (03:29)

Josh Brown adds enthusiasm about the momentum seen in these stocks, noting, “The best performers from an earnings standpoint... momentum wave” (14:15).

Investor Sentiment: A Divergent Viewpoint Jenny Harrington provides a counterbalance to the optimistic view, highlighting that positioning has shifted from the 98th percentile to the 20th percentile for institutional positioning, suggesting a potential for catch-up in the market (04:23). She notes, “Investors are going to continue to play catch up in the short run” (04:23), indicating cautious optimism amid burgeoning momentum.

Conversely, Shannon Sokotia adopts a more pessimistic stance, expressing skepticism about the market’s continued ascent: “I don't see how we go significantly higher” (07:40). She underscores concerns about slowing earnings growth and economic uncertainties, emphasizing a need for a more disciplined investment approach.

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency: Stagnant Despite Inflows The conversation shifts to cryptocurrency, where Bank of America Representative highlights a paradox: despite $4 billion in inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin’s price has only modestly increased by 3% (25:23). The moderator explains, “Mega whales who are likely Chinese miners... are offsetting the ETF and corporate treasury buy-ins” (25:23). Josh Brown views Bitcoin as becoming a mainstream asset, stating, “It's being sponsored by 13 ETFs... think of it as another asset class” (26:25).

Market Movers: Hims and JetBlue The team discusses recent volatility in specific stocks:

• Hims and Hers: Facing a 35% crash due to a partnership fallout with Novo Nordisk (30:20). Josh Brown suggests the sell-off might be overdone, indicating potential for recovery as the company pivots.
• JetBlue: Discussed in terms of investor reactions, with Shannon noting possible value traps and the importance of assessing company fundamentals before deciding to hold or sell (31:48).

Best Stock Highlight: Coupang CPG Josh Brown introduces Coupang CPG as his top pick, a Seattle-based company operating as the "Amazon of South Korea." He praises its impressive performance, stating, “Coupang is on the best stocks in the market list... up near 42%” (37:14). With a Barclays target price of $36 and a strong breakout on moving averages, Coupang exemplifies emerging market potential within a developed economy framework.

Private Assets in 401(k)s: A Growing Trend Leslie Picker discusses the increasing integration of private assets into retirement plans:

• BlackRock's Initiative: Plans to allocate up to 20% of target-date funds to private equity and credit by early next year, aiming to deliver 15% more income over four decades before fees (42:10).
• Legislative Support: A bill advancing in the House to broaden accredited investor status, facilitating more investments in private markets through 401(k)s (42:24).

Jenny Harrington adds, “The demand from our clients is very significant in that space” (44:34), highlighting institutional interest and the need for intelligently structured products to mitigate concerns like high fees and illiquidity.

Geopolitical Impact: Iran and Israel Tensions A brief update on geopolitical tensions affecting the market:

• Iran's Stance: Ayatollah Khamenei claims victory over Israel, asserting Iran's resilience and refusal to surrender despite U.S. strikes (33:03).
• U.S. Military Actions: The Pentagon showcases the effectiveness of bunker buster bombs used in recent strikes, marking the largest operational strike by B2 stealth bombers.
• Humanitarian Concerns: Reports indicate Israel has halted humanitarian aid into Gaza for two days amid security concerns (33:36).

Conclusion: Balancing Optimism with Caution The committee wraps up with a balanced view, recognizing the strong momentum driving the market while acknowledging the undercurrents of economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Scott Wapner summarizes the sentiment, encouraging investors to “look at the way the stocks are behaving” and to stay informed about both the bullish drivers and potential headwinds.

Notable Quotes

• Josh Brown on Momentum: “Momentum factor is far and away the best performing factor. Nothing's even close up 16% year to date” (02:00).
• Shannon Sokotia on Market Limits: “I don't see how we go significantly higher” (07:40).
• Jenny Harrington on Institutional Positioning: “Investors are going to continue to play catch up in the short run” (04:23).
• Josh Brown on Coupang: “Coupang is on the best stocks in the market list... up near 42%” (37:14).

Key Takeaways

• Momentum Investing: Continues to be a dominant strategy with significant portions of the S&P 500 outperforming the index.
• Sector Performance: High growth in sectors like technology and energy, with specific stocks like Vistra and Coinbase leading the charge.
• Investor Sentiment: Mixed views with strong momentum optimism contrasted by cautious perspectives on earnings and economic indicators.
• Emerging Trends: Increasing incorporation of private assets in retirement plans signals a shift towards diversified investment strategies.
• Cryptocurrency: Despite significant ETF inflows, Bitcoin remains stable due to offsetting large-scale sell-offs by major holders.
• Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel present potential volatility factors for the market.

The episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the current market landscape, offering valuable insights for both seasoned investors and those new to the market dynamics.

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Timestamp References

• 01:57 to [48:05]

(Note: Timestamps are indicative and correspond to segments within the transcript provided.)

Transcript

[Bank of America Representative]

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[Scott Wapner]

I'm Scott Wapner, and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. All right, Sarah, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, the new high playbook at stocks close in on another major milestone. We're trading the markets today as always with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour, Josh Brown, Jenny Harrington, Shannon Sokotia, Rob Secchen. We will go to the markets. We are green across the board. Sarah was just telling you we're not that far away from a new high on the s and P, 0.3%. The market just continues, Josh, to march higher. We are on pace now for its best May to June stretch since 1997, up near 10%. During that period of time, this market continues to climb a wall of worry, a Wal whatever, but it continues to go up.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, the playbook is very simple and it's been the same playbook since the market bottomed and that is momentum. But I want to talk about why The S&P 500 is up 23% in total return since April 8. Stock picking has been somewhat difficult for a lot of professional asset managers who are looking at every sector and trying to build a balanced portfolio because we definitely have haves and have nots from the bottom through today. Only 165 names in the S&P 500 are outper index. So it's about 33% of all stocks do better than the index year to date. The S and p is up only 4%, which is a below average year, obviously. And you've got 220 stocks beating the index, so about 44%. So year to date it's been a little bit easier. When you look at the momentum factor, it is far and away the best performing factor. Nothing's even close up 16% year to date. The next best factor is the growth factor which is up 6.5%. So that's the playbook. It could change. It just hasn't changed all year. Mtum, which is the major record high again back at all time highs and it's up 22% versus the S&P, up 12 over the last 12 months. So this is what's happening in the market right now. I think it's pretty obvious people understand that and it has never been more important to focus not only on the fundamentals of the companies you're buying, but price action at least if you care how you're doing relative to the benchmark.

[Scott Wapner]

Rob knows and he cares because the momentum factor, you're all over that as the mtm. So if you look, I know it's an Nvidia and Microsoft World, we're going to get to those stocks obviously. But there are some huge winners from the April bottom and the momentum factor is all over that. Stocks like Vistra which is up 82% since April 8th. NRG is up 79% since April 8th. Broadcom 69%, Lam Research 59%. Jenny's got microchip, the preferreds 99%. It's a near double. Coinbase a 52 week high today, up 127%. Seagate is a double A record high today. Palantir is a record high today. Jabil's a record high today. Amphenol is a record high today. Dell with a positive call. Coinbase had a positive call. This is where you want to be. You want to stay here.

[Jenny Harrington]

Positioning has been the most dominant driver for markets. When we came into the year, we were in the 98th percentile. We were at the same valuations that we are today. Today we're in the 20th percentile for institutional positioning. And so people are playing catch up. You've seen that catch up in the form of low quality. But you've also seen that pick up in the dominant areas of the market, right. That have bounced off the base of a lot of the names that you mentioned. We own are in and around the trade. Even the utility companies that you mentioned are in and around the trade. So that's a comfortable place for investors to kind of chase. But you've also seen some of the lower Quality, lower margin, high beta names kind of play catch up to. We don't play there, but you've definitely seen it. And you have an environment where I think investors are going to continue to play catch up in the short run because of that underweight positioning. Intermediate term, you start to bring in things like slowing economic growth. You start to bring in things like is this earnings bottoming really for real? Are we actually going to see that? And ultimately you're starting to see some of the economic data soften just a bit. So you hope some of these animal spirits that are going to, going to pick up actually manifest themselves and start to drive markets a little bit more forward.

[Scott Wapner]

There's, there's catch up in positioning and there's also catch up in sentiment from investors like Jenny, who has not been a buyer into this move. Certainly from a sentiment standpoint, not nearly as bullish on this market as others have been. Is it time to change that view? I mean, as I said at the top, you can have worry about this, that and the other thing and the market just continues to climb it and leave those people in the dust.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Well, let's define buyer, right? If you're talking about buyer in terms of putting money to work, I was a buyer, I added microchip, Ryman, Ethan Allen, all in early April because I had some cash. So in terms of actually putting money.

[Scott Wapner]

To work, I mean kind of figuratively.

[Shannon Sokotia]

And literally right now, the figuratively, like the am I a buyer that I believe the market should continue to run at the pace that it's run at since it bounced off of the April lows. No, I don't buy.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, you qualified it though, at the pace. Forget about the actual pace. But why does it have to go at that pace? Okay, it may not go at the markets of 27% for the S and P since the bottom.

[Shannon Sokotia]

So here's the thing, you know, whenever anyone listens to us, you need to consider what perspective we're coming from. And I'm coming from the perspective of a dividend income investor. Right. Even our growth strategy is a disciplined growth strategy where we look for these free cash flow yields. Like I am not a positive growthy. Raw, raw outlook. I'm always going to look for the worst. A long time ago there was this cool book out called Tree. I think it's called Tree Ring Capital and it talked about the way the Japanese invest and the Japanese invest differently than the US or they have a different investment philosophy where they kind of look for everything that can go wrong and then spend a Little bit of their time on what can go right.

[Scott Wapner]

I was, I literally just wrote down on my, on the bottom of my page waiting for things to go wrong rather than what actually could go right.

[Shannon Sokotia]

There is a difference. It's not waiting for things to go wrong, it's thinking about things that can go wrong.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, but you get consumed with thinking about all the things that could go wrong. Way earnings aren't going to be good. Look at the multiple, oh, I don't like the way that the administration's putting forth their policy, the trade thing, the tariffs, this, that and the other. Like waiting for something.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Thinking about was waiting for something to go wrong. All three of our strategies would not be fully invested. They are fully invested. I don't wait for things to go wrong. But I always worry about what's going to go wrong. And so I just always have a more cautious, more, more pessimistic perspective. And so I sit here today and I'm like, all right, 23 times this year's earnings. The earnings growth rate is slowing from what it was in the past couple of years. Economic uncertainty relative to where we were a year ago. Geopolitical uncertainty relative to where we were a year ago. Sure, maybe I love the, I love the improvement in potential bank regulation. But even regulatory improvement is happening slower than we expected it to. So I look at this and I just don't see how we go significantly higher. You know, great, awesome. The market's up 4 and a quarter percent year to date. How do we go from that top 16 or 17% on the year? I don't think we do, but they.

[Scott Wapner]

Feel like Shan, if you, if you. It's a tale of two markets. If you look at it from a year to date standpoint. Point, you missed the whole movie. The year to date obviously has been lackluster, but that's not the story that should be told. It's where we are from the April bottom. The S and p is up 27% from the April bottom. The Nasdaq is up 36% since April. Last I checked, we're not even in July yet. That's the story.

[Bank of America Representative]

I think if you look at the movie short actually that, like that, that time period, it actually should, would make you a little bit more cautious. I don't think it would make you more optimistic. I actually think you should look at the overall time period because when we came into this year, your expectations were obviously not for the type of Double digit low 20s returns in the S&P 500 that we had been delivered the last two years. Now, what were the catalysts that you were waiting for? You were waiting for the potential catalysts around the tax bill. You were waiting for an expansion of capex. You were waiting for some of this deregulatory impulse which frankly hasn't really come yet. What we're seeing is a lack of enforcement of regulation. That's not technically deregulation. We actually need to see follow through on that. But I think what you're asking, Scott, is at this inflection point, is it the time based on the strength and the momentum in the market that you want to feel more comfortable adding back into your positions in the US or do you want to actually continue to look for these broader opportunities? That is the question. And I think that it comes down to in the second half of the year, do you think that some of these pro business forces are actually going to catalyze stronger earnings growth than we have seen or have expected or is estimated? And our view is that in those industries and sectors there will be stronger earnings growth based on these catalysts. And so you can justify some of the run up, maybe not in the individual stocks that you're discussing that have been the leaders thus far in this quarter, that that broadening out actually can bring up other stocks into the market rather than just relying on the force that has driven second quarter performance.

[Scott Wapner]

What do you think? What do we think? What do you guys think?

[Jenny Harrington]

I personally think it was driven by fundamentals. These are earnings based concentration. Those stocks have been the best performers from an earnings standpoint. I do agree with you that I think you can get a broadening out because you know, if we get rate cuts, if we get some of the certain things that we would hope to see that drive earnings, productivity from AI, you name it, you can get a broadening out. I don't think that is today. I don't think it's now. That is all predicated on what the Fed does and frankly it's all predicated on what happens to the dollar. If you're hoping for international, do we continue this downward trajectory to maintain that, that type of momentum? So I think we're going to be concentrated while we are having this positioning chase. And ultimately I think when you want to get cautious is when, when you see skepticism fade.

[Bank of America Representative]

Can I count to that? I'm actually not questioning the fundamentals of the stocks that have, that many of that you've laid out that have performed well. I'm not questioning that. What I'm stating is that, you know, I also, I think the impact of the Fed through the second half of the year is overstated from a transmission perspective. I think the one area where actually it will be boosted is in small and mid cap stocks because those are perceived to be much more interest rate sensitive. But if you're waiting on the Fed to deliver in the second half of the year the gains in the equity market, you're probably mispositioned in my view.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, so then let's do. I gave you the, the angel view on, on the shoulder of the bulls. Okay. Of the market. Now you go the other shoulder. The devil's over there. And he's like maybe you guys are all too complacent. Do you really think this tax bill is going to get done nice and clean? Do you really think that tariffs are not a non starter? Are they not going to be a story because the market feels like it's desensitized to it? Do you really think that there's not going to be this lag effect from what's already been done and then the market and the economy is going to slow more, the labor market is going to slow more. Do you really think that the Fed's just going to come to the rescue and cut rates and don't fight the, the Fed? What about all that? What about that side of the debate?

[Josh Brown]

Well, you need those things to be in place or the S and P would be at 30 times earnings. Like you need you, you need there to be a wall of worry. I don't know, I'm doing this show. I just wanted to worry about is.

[Scott Wapner]

One side going to win out, one side going to win out or you do you just play this market? Look the whole thing at the top we said what's your new high playbook? You play the market, you have.

[Josh Brown]

Can I keep it a buck with you? We're in a bull market. Okay? So we were, we had a cyclical bear market in my, in my day they used to last an average of 13 months. The last one lasted three weeks, but we had one, we were down 20% as we repriced obviously tariff risk, obviously, you know, layoffs and things that might take unemployment to a point where it's like a no return. Like we, we did that pricing in and then the cardboard cutout thing was thrown out the window and everybody had to reprice back. And that's natural, that's how markets function. But look at stocks, look less at some of these headlines and just look at the way the stocks are behaving. My four biggest positions all made record highs today. Not 52 week highs. Record highs in video. Yeah, okay. Just, it just went. No reason, no catalyst, no news, just goodbye. Take a look at CrowdStrike broke 500 today. Boom. You like that noise better? I did okay.

[Shannon Sokotia]

No, I like it.

[Josh Brown]

Shake Shack.

[Shannon Sokotia]

I remember like being a Kid, Shake.

[Josh Brown]

Shack hit 138 today. You want to know what the news is? The Dubai chocolate pistachio shake just went from being limited edition, I'm not even kidding.

[Bank of America Representative]

To a full menu item to a.

[Josh Brown]

Full menu item nationwide. People are lined up the Dubai Chocolate.

[Jenny Harrington]

Do they know you're taking a two week vacation?

[Josh Brown]

Do they know you're taking a two week vacation?

[Jenny Harrington]

Two week vacation.

[Josh Brown]

Also a deal between Shake Shack and Delta on domestic flights. First class passengers, which is me, can pre book their Shake Shack order for those flights is a very bullish time for me. And then last but not least, uber new all time high right now as I'm talking. So when I look at stocks and not what are the mid caps doing, what's value doing, what's, it's a totally different picture now. Does that mean just buy whatever and who cares? No, I talk about the best stocks in the market and every time I roll one out, which I will in about 20 minutes, the idea is, well, where does the stop go? Where does the market tell you you're overexposed or the story has changed or the momentum is gone and that way you can be in this market but not in a cavalier way where you're just expecting a half a percent up every single day.

[Bank of America Representative]

Isn't that why the policy. The policy does matter because it matters to the individual companies that we're all looking to own. Like some Scott, the delay on the transmission of tariff inflation. It's a delay, right? Companies will experience tariff higher prices and they will.

[Scott Wapner]

It may be just a one time thing. And so what?

[Bank of America Representative]

And it, and it may be right. It can't. So in that interim period, if you have been a company that has been really watching for protection of your margins and that you have really been focused on maintaining your competitive advantage in this more difficult economic environment, why wouldn't you be able to catalyze that into earnings over the next couple of quarters? Because we haven't had the environment that you were bracing for.

[Scott Wapner]

How are earnings going to be this season? Because it's going to come down to that. I mean the markets obviously what some would say, like Jenny would make the argument markets too expensive based on what expected earnings are and expectations are probably going to end up coming down.

[Shannon Sokotia]

I think earnings will be fine because we're still working off of an environment where tariffs hadn't kicked in all the way. We're still working off of a healthy corporate environment, a healthy consumer environment. Nothing started to change, I think again.

[Scott Wapner]

And how do you argue against the multiple of the market if you think earnings are going to be fine? You just laid out all the reasons why they're fine.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Because 23 times earnings has already accounted for all the excellent earnings growth that we went into this year already expecting. Right. It's pulled forward. If we were at 18 times and there was room for multiple expansion, that would be better. But we've pulled forward 23 times presumes the very best situation. So what we really need to see now is what they're going to say about third quarter. Because now tariffs are starting to get a little bit real. Right. Not really real to your point about the transmission. Like how long does it take? How long before people start to make different decisions? So I think that, I think the third quarter commentary will be more important. I don't see why second quarter.

[Josh Brown]

Two reasons why. You're right. There's a phenomenon.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Scott, hear that?

[Josh Brown]

Yes, I did. There's a phenomenon that bank of America's economists talked about a couple of weeks ago called sneakflation. And sneakflation is this idea where let's say a company has higher costs to deliver something to consumers here in the US because of the cost of raw materials coming in from, from overseas or finished goods or whatever it is. They don't necessarily have to take the tariff to that item. They could spread out that higher cross cost across everything they sell, but in smaller increments where the consumer is less likely to notice and they don't have to piss off the White House. So sneakflation is going to be a part of the witch's brew that we just, we start to encounter and people.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Say, oh wow, can I say something on that?

[Josh Brown]

Well, as soon as I finish. You can. The second part of this, which I think is equally interesting. Yes. You can make the argument that we haven't felt the full brunt of the tariffs and it's on a lag. But you know what else is on a lag? You know what else we haven't felt the front full effect of? It's the productivity gains and the increased margins from AI.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Right.

[Josh Brown]

And that's not an maybe it's in the multiple, but it's not in the earnings yet.

[Bank of America Representative]

But it's coming company any, anything outside of the enablers. It's not in the earnings here's what's funny to Jenny.

[Jenny Harrington]

Sorry, you want to dominate. So here's what's interesting. When you look at earnings, which you were talking about value earnings are getting cut. Growth earnings are accelerated. Josh said at the beginning of the show, the most important thing right now is momentum. So if earnings estimates are getting raised for growth businesses, doesn't that indicate that that's where the momentum is going to stay for the time being when value estimates are getting cut? Value was a trade at the beginning of this year. I'm not saying it won't ever reemerge if we get a cyclical acceleration. Right. But you need that cyclical impulse. And until then, we are where we are. And I would not get off your surfboards, folks.

[Shannon Sokotia]

What's.

[Bank of America Representative]

What's value? Financials. Industrials are.

[Josh Brown]

Those financials are not. Right.

[Bank of America Representative]

That's value. They're saying like, so, like value is.

[Josh Brown]

Anything related to homebuilding.

[Bank of America Representative]

Home. But I'm saying there is. It's a very small bucket of things that are actually value. Right.

[Josh Brown]

Health care, home building. You're right.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Here's what I want to say. So I had a very interesting last two days.

[Josh Brown]

This better be so good.

[Shannon Sokotia]

I think it is.

[Scott Wapner]

I mean, yes, the buildup was really better.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Okay, yeah, you're going to sneer, whatever. You smeared all my conference.

[Scott Wapner]

Go ahead.

[Shannon Sokotia]

I spent, you know, I was at the CFA conference, at the JP Morgan Energy conference, but, but like crystallizing this. Generac was talking and Generac had such interesting insight and they said, look, when the tariffs started hitting, we were expecting $125 million hit, right? And that would have created demand destruction because we're passing it on to the consumer with the change. Now we're thinking it's 60 million. With 60 million, we don't know what the demand destruction is. But this is your point. We don't know what these things are going to be. It's the sneakflation, right? If $60 million of Generac increased expense gets passed on to the client, like, what does that really do? How does that really hit? How does that multiply out across so many companies? We don't know. And we all. And they also didn't know for a month it was me 125 or 60. Those are big numbers. I don't know what category Generac falls into. Is it a growth company or a value company? I don't know. I don't care. I just think this stuff is going to start rolling down the pipeline in the 2Q earnings and this is what we need to listen to. And we just have no idea what way it falls.

[Scott Wapner]

So what are you using that as evidence of the kinds of stocks that you would not buy?

[Shannon Sokotia]

Generac. Not yet. Right. That's always been on our short list. It's an interesting company. The free cash flow generation is interesting, but there's too much uncertainty there now. And I like that term. I hadn't heard it before, sneakflation, but when you said that, I'm like, this is exactly the case in point of when it's going to creep in.

[Scott Wapner]

This part of my point about how the whole conversation started. There's been uncertainty around everything forever, always will be.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

And yet, thank God.

[Shannon Sokotia]

But, but I want to say something on that. So I've always thought that when you're buying a stock or when you're choosing, you know, a sector to invest in, you look at, you look at like a decision tree and there's maybe 12 branches. I would argue that in the last few months, there's not 12 branches to the decision tree, there's like a thousand right now. I think there's more complexity right now to predicting future returns on stocks and the market because of the geopolitics, because of the domestic politics than there has been in a long time.

[Jenny Harrington]

But isn't that what we actually have to do is focus on what is going to cause the change in the rate of change that allows assets to be attracted to whatever asset class it is and stay there for a period of time? There's, there's always a catalyst. Right. And the catalyst in the case of the larger growth companies, the tech companies that have done well were superior earnings. I mean, it was remarkable what happened. And so you need a catalyst in any one of those things. If it's the homebuilders, you need rate cuts. If it's Lowe's in Home Depot, you need the same thing.

[Scott Wapner]

Would you buy financial stuff today? Would you buy financials today which are less than 1% from a new high?

[Jenny Harrington]

I think it depends on the financials. We own some that are expensive. We own some that are cheap. We obviously, well, go.

[Scott Wapner]

Wells Fargo, you own the price target got raised. Jefferies was lower today off the back of its earnings. You own J.P. morgan, that correct high today.

[Jenny Harrington]

So I think J.P. morgan is the best run bank bank in the world. It's our largest holding in one of our dividend portfolios. It's our largest holding in one of our dividend portfolios. And you know, I think they have benefited from conservatism and from being the safe Choice and we're not changing that. I think at the margin, if you want to focus on a business that has not done as well and has the possibility to have some cyclical receleration and optionality in it and it's not expensive, it's Jefferies. Well, I mean, okay, and Jefferies is down a lot year to date. Right. We've owned it for a long time. So we're still up on Jefferies, but it's given back a lot. I think it's down 30% year to date. But if you listen to their earnings call, their M and A pipeline is building. They're very excited about the capital markets activity they're going to see in the second half of the year. They didn't miss by as much as they thought it was down, but it was not down as much as people thought from, from an earnings standpoint. And you know, I think they're very excited for that. So if you want to have some things that are working and ride that momentum wave in, marry them with other assets that have embedded optionality to this broadening out trade thoughtfully, I think that's a great way to do it.

[Scott Wapner]

Anybody care about what's been happening with the dollar before I get to Bitcoin and the fact that it's been sitting.

[Josh Brown]

This little run positive tailwind for multinational companies, I wouldn't buy stocks because of it. And if the dollar were up, I would give you the optimistic side of that too. I know of no people on the planet, I could be wrong who utilize the dollar as their predominant lens through which to decide how big or small their equity allocation should be.

[Jenny Harrington]

We do, you know one now. So I bring it dollar is the most important thing as it relates to international investing.

[Josh Brown]

Okay, okay.

[Jenny Harrington]

But you said you, you were talking.

[Josh Brown]

Where is it international stock tailwind.

[Scott Wapner]

Yes, I bring it up because the more that Trump pounds on Powell, the more the dollar goes down. Okay. The dollar's pacing for its worst first half in decades, not years decades. Dollar index is at a three year low. Josh sees the positive side of it. Good for multinationals, obviously, and international.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

So it's certainly buck, pardon the pun, stops there.

[Jenny Harrington]

It's certainly something, as Arsenio hall used to say, things that make you go, hmm, why when we have these risk off moves, are we seeing the moves that we've seen in the, in the 30 year. Why does the dollar continue to weaken when these have consistently been safe haven trades and now they're, now they're not acting like some others?

[Scott Wapner]

What is that? What is what is bitcoin acting like as the market approach? Well, is it. Tennay mcheel joins us now because it really isn't rallying despite a lot of inflows and despite what this market's doing. What's up with that today?

[Bank of America Representative]

Yes, got $4 billion of inflows in a Bitcoin ETF this month. But the price of bitcoin itself only up about 3% in that, in that same time. So there's a missing piece here. We talk so much about the buyers. There are the sellers, which are these mega whales who are likely Chinese miners. We have data from crypto quant showing that while ETFs and corporate treasuries have been big buyers this year, that's mostly being almost perfectly offset by the selling by bigger whales. So check out buying from wallets with 100 to 1,000 bitcoin. Those are likely the ETF wallets as well as corporate treasuries versus selling from the over 1,000 bitcoin and over 10,000 bitcoin cohorts. So this, Scott, is one reason bitcoin's price is stuck. It's evidence of a big shift in ownership in the bitcoin market retail. So under one Bitcoin, for what it's worth, those sellers, those are sellers too, but they're kind of an insignificant cohort at this point, unlike in previous cycles. And it could mean, we see, we see traders adopting more sophisticated options based strategies or turn to proxies and treasury companies for their bitcoin returns.

[Scott Wapner]

Scott, today. Thank you. That's today. Mikhail, you have a thought on this? You still own some bitcoin, don't you?

[Josh Brown]

Yeah. Look, I don't pretend to know what drives the price of bitcoin. I talk to a lot of people who are much more involved in the ecosystem and they have interesting theories. But my take is that this is now a central part of the ecosystem. It's, it's being sponsored by 13 ETFs, trillion dollar companies that issue ETFs. So we should start, start thinking less about this as some anomalous thing from another planet and more about it just as yet another asset class that people buy and sell on a daily basis for various reasons which are unique to them. And it's really hard to divine on any given day why it might be up or down $600 per coin. I don't even try to.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's take a look at Circle which is up huge today. Obviously a recent IPO up 600% since and really volatile. There it is, I mean, a big move today, but you look at what it's done the prior days, down more than 15% over the last couple days. Just to point that out, no ownership here.

[Josh Brown]

Well, I think what will happen on the Circle front is that you're going to get five more of these in the form of IPOs in the second half of the year. You could see Kraken Gemini filed. You'll see a whole host of companies capitalizing on the obvious excitement around digital asset infrastructure plays, which is what Circle is. And the valuations won't make sense because there's a ton of scarcity right now. Circle, for example, almost approaching the valuation of Coinbase. Coinbase makes more money from Circle than Circle does in net income because of the distribution fees. None of it makes sense at all. If there were 20 of these things trading, probably multiples wouldn't be doing what they're doing, but there aren't. So us equity managers who want to have exposure to crypto and can't themselves buy Bitcoin, can't themselves buy any other assets in the ecosystem. They can own Coinbase, they can own Robinhood, they can own Circle, and they can tell their board of directors, hey, look at us, we have crypto exposure. So that's a big part of the story. It's fine. I'm not in the stock. I have no issue with it. But people should understand that that's what's driving these names.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, we'll take a quick break. Coming up, more on today's top movers, plus our calls of the day. And later, Josh Browning told you he's got a new stock. His best stock in the market list. In the market list hit a new 52 week high today. We're back in two.

[Bank of America Representative]

For 140 years, MultiCare has been in Washington prioritizing long term solutions, partnering with local communities and expanding access to care. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn [e-mail] Close your eyes. Exhale. Feel your body relax and let go of whatever you're carrying today. Well, I'm letting go of the worry that I wouldn't get my new contacts in time for this class. I got them delivered free from 1-800-contacts. Oh my gosh, they're so fast.

[Scott Wapner]

And breathe.

[Bank of America Representative]

Oh, sorry. I almost couldn't breathe when I saw the discount they gave me on my first order. Oh, sorry. Namaste. Visit 1-800-contacts.com today to save on your first order.

[Jenny Harrington]

1-800-Contacts.

[Josh Brown]

Are you still quoting 30 year old movies?

[Scott Wapner]

Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days. Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted? If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past. Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide.

[Josh Brown]

And every time you make a purchase.

[Scott Wapner]

With your card, you automatically earn cash back.

[Josh Brown]

Welcome to the now it pays to Discover. Learn [e-mail] credit card based on the.

[Scott Wapner]

February 2024 Nelson Report. Some stocks on the move. There obviously are many today. Hims and her is pacing for its worst week ever. You flag this to our our crew.

[Josh Brown]

It's something that I've never seen before. So the stock started this week with a 35% crash because they had a joint venture with Novo Nordisk to sell legitimate vert. I shouldn't say legitimate to sell branded version of WeGovy versus the compounded version that they've been selling. And then Novo Nordisk after a month put out a press release basically accusing them of false advertising and endangering patients and pulled out. So him's got crushed. But the thing is they still have millions of users who like that platform. I don't know if this is a news flash. People don't like going to the doctor and face to face talking about erectile dysfunction, balding or being fat slobs. Sorry, I'm speaking for myself. All right, so I think like when you think about whether this stock could recover or not, I think you go with the distribution versus the original product manufacturer because HIMS could pivot to selling any other version and there are now 10 of them. So maybe this sell off got overdone and I thought it was an interesting story to mention.

[Scott Wapner]

All right. JetBlue, the second largest investor to consider selling the stake. Their stake according to Reuters, it's in your 10% stake, Jenny. You own the stock. That's not that big of a reaction to I guess a news headline that would make lead you to believe that the stock might be down more if the second largest investor was considering selling the stake.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Yeah, I mean the thing is so beaten to nothing. But I want to share another nugget of wisdom from my exciting week of conferences. So the subject of value traps came up and one of the portfolio managers who was presenting said a lot of our best performers were the worst performers. Be careful not to be too quick to deem something a value trap. And I think like this has been a terrible stock but the reality is is things are going better than they were. They should start. There's a new management they haven't had. They started in February 24th. So a year and a half. I don't think they've had quite enough time to like, really start to turn things around. But if there's any improvement to earnings growth, if they can ever get back to a dollar a share, they used to be at $2 a share. It's really cheap and there should be some improvement. But I think that's the point of the response.

[Scott Wapner]

Why you own the stock still?

[Shannon Sokotia]

Because we don't think it should be sold here. You know, I think there's upside potential. So every time you own something, you look at it as what's the opportunity cost? And, you know, just to beat myself up a little more, you know. Know how we were talking about Organon over the last couple of weeks and I didn't sell Organon when it had its big hit down to 8. Now it's above 10. So even though things get just shellacked, sometimes they're down too much. And I think there could be. I think there could be upside down.

[Scott Wapner]

You go to a lot of conferences.

[Shannon Sokotia]

I know. It's why I'm so smart.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, why don't we do a reverse confidence for the conference circle?

[Josh Brown]

Why would they allow themselves to have a $4 stage stock? Why not do a reverse stock split? Nobody could buy this.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Maybe they should.

[Josh Brown]

Like institutional investors are not buying it. Under five.

[Shannon Sokotia]

I think that's right. Yeah. You know, but I don't know why they're not.

[Bank of America Representative]

They don't want to see $5.

[Shannon Sokotia]

All right, up next, maybe they'll listen to you.

[Scott Wapner]

We got Josh Brown's best stocks in the market list ahead first, though. Silvana now has the headlines for us. Hi, Silvana.

[Bank of America Representative]

Hey, Scott. Good afternoon. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei today claimed victory over Israel, saying the country was crushed under the blows of the Islamic Republic.

[Shannon Sokotia]

In his first public remarks since the.

[Bank of America Representative]

US Strikes last weekend, Khamenei also claimed the country gave the US quote, a big slap in the face in its attack on the air base in Qatar, adding that Iran would not surrender.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Meanwhile, the Pentagon this morning releasing footage.

[Bank of America Representative]

Showing how bunker buster bombs work in a test of the 30,000 pound munition, which is the same type used in the Iran strikes, which the Pentagon says is the largest ever operational strike by B2 stealth bombers. And in Gaza, Israel has reportedly stopped humanitarian aid from entering for two days. That's according to Reuters. And it comes after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday there were indications Hamas was seizing aid. Israel has yet to comment but the Higher Commission for Tribal affairs, which represents influential clothes, said trucks were protected as part of a security process. Halftime report. We'll be right back.

[Josh Brown]

CNBC News Update is sponsored by Morgan.

[Jenny Harrington]

Stanley, where old school hard work meets bold new thinking.

[Bank of America Representative]

Close your eyes, exhale, feel your body relax and let go of whatever you're carrying today. Well, I'm letting go of the worry that I wouldn't get my new contacts in time for this class. I got them delivered free from 1-800-contacts. Oh my gosh, they're so fast.

[Scott Wapner]

And breathe.

[Jenny Harrington]

Oh, sorry.

[Bank of America Representative]

I almost couldn't breathe when I saw the discount they gave me on my first order. Oh, sorry. Namaste. Visit 1-800contacts.com today to save on your first order.

[Jenny Harrington]

1-800-Contacts.

[Josh Brown]

Are you still quoting 30 year old movies?

[Scott Wapner]

Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days? Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted? If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past. Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide.

[Josh Brown]

And every time you make a purchase.

[Scott Wapner]

With your card, you automatically earn cash back.

[Josh Brown]

Welcome to the Now It Pays to Discover. Learn more at discover.com credit card based on the February 2024 Nelson Report.

[Scott Wapner]

Blue Emirates Business. All right, we're back. Christina Parts and Evolos has a market flash for us on coreweave. I just saw this report. What's going on here?

[Bank of America Representative]

Well, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that coreweave is looking to acquire Core Scientific once again. I say once again because the two companies have been working together for years. Core weave rents GPUs as a service. They're considered a neo cloud. Core Scientific is a company that operates a lot of these digital infrastructures for bitcoin mining, artificial intelligence. So the two work together to provide those services. And so it just kind of makes sense that perhaps they would be trying to join forces. However, last year Core Weave did try to acquire Core Scientific. Cor we didn't offer enough. Core Scientific rejected the bid. Perhaps things are changing this time around. According to the Wall Street Journal report, I did reach out to coreweave and I'm just checking my phone, I have not received any confirmation just yet in regards to this. But that is why you're seeing Core Scientific's price jump just on the notion that Cor Weave could be back in the market to acquire this name.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, you hear from Core, we let us know. Christina Parts and Nebulous with the update. Josh Brown's best stocks in the market. The spotlight today is on a Name that has hit a 52 week high today, it is Coupang CPG.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, so we were talking at the dollar before. One of this. One of the bull markets that's taking place right now that not a lot of people are that excited about, at least not yet is emerging market stocks. They're really starting to go. The IEMG is having a great year outperforming the S and p. Within the img. Korean stocks are the fourth largest country allocation. The Cosby is on fire, up 28%. Korea's 2550 index, which is a little bit growth here is up 42%. And almost nobody knows this or is paying any attention. Coupang is on the best stocks in the market list because it's a Korean business, but it's incorporated and based in Seattle. So this is a US company with a US founder, but most of their business is being the Amazon of South Korea. The best, best comp here is Mercado Libre. Meli Melly is up 9,000% plus since its IPO. This company is probably five years behind Meli in terms of its margins, its earnings, its growth. So there's still a lot of opportunity. It came public in 21. Everybody forgot about it because the whole growth stock market crashed for a year. But now it's working its way back. And the reality is that it's not terribly expensive. It's a, it's in a 40% drawdown from that 21 high. Barclays has a $36 target and it's a best stock. It's breaking out. You've got a 50 to 200 day moving average crossover which signals short term momentum. And I think the stock probably gets itself into the mid-30s at a minimum based on the breakout that we've seen. So Coupang is a name that not a lot of people know of in the United States, but it should be on people's radar.

[Scott Wapner]

It is on our radar now.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Question. No, it's just an interesting thing. So, you know, we have this international strategy and one of the things that's interesting about Korea is that people always think it's, you know, it actually counts as an emerging market where it's a very developed market, it's a very sophisticated, robust economy. So I wonder from an index perspective, question.

[Josh Brown]

Vanguard does not consider it emerging.

[Scott Wapner]

Let me see an intraday.

[Josh Brown]

You throw the intraday back up cpg. Vanguard has South Korea in developed markets.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Yeah.

[Josh Brown]

But the MSCI has it as emerging.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Weird, right?

[Josh Brown]

Which is why, which is why the BlackRock, the iShares products that are based on MSCI, include South Korea as emerging and it's right behind Taiwan, India and China as the fourth largest weight. But this is a U.S. stock that a large middle cap U.S. stock that you can use to capitalize on what's happening with Korean stocks, which is just absolute dynamite this year.

[Scott Wapner]

All right. We will continue to watch CPG Mike Santoli. He's next with his MIDDAY Word after this break. All right. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joins us now with his MIDDAY word. What do you think of this market here, Mike?

[Jenny Harrington]

You know, it's, it's checking off some.

[Josh Brown]

Of the boxes that you'd want to see. I mean, the fact that we're getting.

[Jenny Harrington]

Right to the doorstep of the old.

[Scott Wapner]

Highs obviously lead you to that moment.

[Josh Brown]

Where you say, okay, should I fade this? Are there reasons that I should be suspicious of the staying power here?

[Scott Wapner]

I'm not seeing too many of them. You're not seeing people super over aggressively.

[Jenny Harrington]

Positioned, at least not institutions.

[Bank of America Representative]

There's silly stuff going on with a lot of the recent IPOs and a.

[Jenny Harrington]

Lot of the kind of story stocks.

[Scott Wapner]

With not much behind them.

[Josh Brown]

But that's a feature of bull markets. It's not necessarily outright indictment. You see this kind of boring grind higher for no particular reason today. That's bull market behavior. That's sort of the way it goes. I do think we have to maybe.

[Jenny Harrington]

Get a reality check on what the.

[Josh Brown]

Underlying economy is doing because I think that the market has made everybody say, you see, the economy's fine, it's so resilient, everything's great. While the economic surprise index was making new lows for the year just last.

[Scott Wapner]

Week, continuing claims are higher.

[Josh Brown]

I think we're kind of retro reasoning in terms of what the economy is doing.

[Bank of America Representative]

And so that's why I think pay.

[Scott Wapner]

Attention to your yield at 375.

[Josh Brown]

Again, we're positioning for rate cuts.

[Jenny Harrington]

We hope it's good news, rate cuts.

[Josh Brown]

But you got to get confirmation of that from the jobs number and everything else next week.

[Scott Wapner]

All right. Good stuff. We'll see on closing bell. Mike Santoli, thank you. Coming up, we take the inside inside the alternative universe with momentum now building around private assets in your 401k, our Leslie Picker following that money. Dow's good for 345. We're back after this. I welcome back Wall Street Washington teaming up to bring private assets to your 401ks. Leslie Picker following that money for us. And as more. Hey, Les.

[Bank of America Representative]

Hey, Scott.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Big trend in this space blackrock making.

[Bank of America Representative]

A push just this morning out with.

[Shannon Sokotia]

A paper describing the firm's plans for.

[Bank of America Representative]

Putting more private assets into 401ks.

[Shannon Sokotia]

BlackRock intends to offer a target date.

[Bank of America Representative]

Fund with as much as 20% allocated.

[Shannon Sokotia]

To private assets by the early part of next year.

[Bank of America Representative]

I'm told the firm estimates that incorporating.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Private equity and private credit into a.

[Bank of America Representative]

401K will deliver 15% more income over.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Four decades, and that is before fees.

[Bank of America Representative]

Washington is entertaining this concept as well. Just this week, the House advanced a bill that broadens the so called accredited investor status, which would allow more people to invest in private markets through their 401ks. And there have been recent reports about the the Trump administration's expected plan to issue an executive order that directs federal agencies to study and propose rule changes involving private assets in retirement plans. There are still sizable hurdles, though, among plan providers, including high fees, illiquidity, opacity and litigation risk. BlackRock in its paper says a lot of the structuring would require products that are built specifically for 401ks to address those concerns.

[Scott Wapner]

Concerns Scott let's see, Leslie, what the what the group thinks. This your wheelhouse? What do you think? Why not?

[Josh Brown]

I'm not 1000% opposed to it. If people really want to do it. I'm just not convinced it'll be as additive to returns as everyone's saying. There's obviously a ton of money being spent by the industry in order to get these rule changes because these are higher fee products and it's very difficult to make the leap. That or you're paying more. So the performance will definitely be there. It very often doesn't work that way. Is a There's a chart floating around today conflating IRR as the same thing as compounded returns versus the S&P 500. It's literally not how it works. That very chart that I'm referring to comes from a private equity firm and has nothing about fee calculations or any other metrics that might actually affect the user experience of owning the fundamental so don't get so carried away would be my my take. If you want to do it, feel free to do it. If you look at the State Street Private Markets Index, which I think is probably the gold standard here, the S and p outperforms on 1 year, 3 year, 5 year and 10 year periods and it costs 3 basis points. I don't I don't really see like what what the burning desire is to get these things in the midst of people's response.

[Jenny Harrington]

Retirement the burning desire comes from the retirement community itself. So our holding companies called EdgeCo Holdings. We own two businesses, New Edge and we own American Trust and Custody Services, which is a very large $570 billion player in that marketplace. The demand from our clients is very significant in that space. You are going to see this migration, credit, everything. You're going to see what happens in this space in that there's massive demand from the plan participants for alts in your 401k. For alts in 401ks. And it's our institutional clients. It's a B2B business. So the institutional clients are asking so that their clients can have it. The plan advisors are asking for that. It is very important to make sure that the community of investors kind of intelligently gets what they want. We also, on our side of the business, own black owned Blackstone. Right. Because the larger players are going to be able to service that community much more easily and better than some of the boots.

[Josh Brown]

That's how I would do it. I would buy Carlisle Blackstone. I would rather own the equities of the GPs than be an LP in a third tier fund that's been purpose built for mom and dad. Pop for one case. I'd rather own the company.

[Scott Wapner]

Got to go. Finals are next. Let's do finals. Si t. What do you got?

[Jenny Harrington]

Novartis bright spot in the health care space this year. Up 27%. It's still cheap.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, Shan.

[Bank of America Representative]

Deregulation and capital markets are positive. Tailwinds for financials valuations are still not too bad.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, less than 1% from a new high. Jenny.

[Shannon Sokotia]

Okay. Sixth street specialty lending, 9% yield. The Creme de la creme of the private credit firms. Here's a great way to own it directly. Oh, directly.

[Scott Wapner]

Thank you. And Josh Brown.

[Josh Brown]

Amazon making waves in AI in cloud. Everywhere you look they are advancing the puck. I really like the situation.

[Scott Wapner]

Thank you. Thank you everybody. See you on the bell. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast you can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

[Jenny Harrington]

All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report.

[Bank of America Representative]

Participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal.

[Jenny Harrington]

Their parent company or affiliates and may.

[Bank of America Representative]

Have been previously disseminated by them on.

[Jenny Harrington]

Television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion.

[Bank of America Representative]

Such opinions are based upon information the.

[Jenny Harrington]

Halftime Report participants consider reliable.

[Bank of America Representative]

But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and.

[Jenny Harrington]

Or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftimereportdisclaimer.

[Josh Brown]

Hey, I'm journalist Sam Sanders. I'm poet Saeed Jones.

[Bank of America Representative]

And I'm producer Zach Stafford.

[Scott Wapner]

And we are the hosts of a.

[Bank of America Representative]

Podcast called Vibe Check.

[Josh Brown]

On Vibe Check, we talk about everything news, culture and entertainment and how it all feels.

[Scott Wapner]

That's right, we talk about any and.

[Bank of America Representative]

Everything on our show, from real life issues like grief to music and movie critiques. And that barely scratches the surface.

[Josh Brown]

Yes, indeed.

[Bank of America Representative]

And it doesn't stop there.

[Josh Brown]

We have got a lot to say.

[Bank of America Representative]

So join our group, chat, come to.

[Josh Brown]

Life, follow and listen to Vibe Check.

[Bank of America Representative]

Wherever you get your podcasts, it.