CNBC Halftime Report: The Edgy Markets – June 17, 2025

Release Date: June 17, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report, host Scott Wapner delves into the current state of the markets, exploring key indicators, sector performances, and geopolitical tensions shaping investor sentiment. Joined by a panel of experts—Josh Brown, Stephanie Link, Shannon Sokotia, Brian Belsky, and Steve Liesman—the discussion provides a comprehensive analysis of the factors influencing the market's midpoint performance.

Market Overview

Timestamp: 01:03

Scott Wapner sets the stage by highlighting the current market climate marked by weaker retail sales, a rising VIX (volatility index), and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Despite these challenges, there remains optimism among top investors about the bull trend continuing.

"Retail was weaker than expected... but Roth Capital today says the bull trend though, is underway." – Scott Wapner [01:03]

Consumer Data and Retail Sales

Timestamp: 02:06

Brian Belsky emphasizes the resilience of the consumer despite recent pullbacks due to tariffs and trade wars. He points out that personal income and savings rates remain robust, underpinning consumer spending power.

"The consumer is still just fine given the labor market, given that inflation is coming down." – Brian Belsky [02:06]

Stephanie Link adds that the GDP numbers are strong, which bodes well for corporate earnings.

Equity Markets and MAG7 Performance

Timestamp: 03:04

The conversation shifts to the performance of major equities, particularly the MAG7—seven leading technology stocks driving market gains. Belsky highlights the outperformance of these stocks, especially Nvidia, which accounts for a significant portion of the S&P 500’s year-to-date return.

"If you understand that the AI story and the US consumer are the only things that matter... we're on the verge of a new record high." – Brian Belsky [03:04]

Brian further notes the impressive rebound of MAG7 stocks from their April lows, reinforcing the bullish outlook.

"Nvidia is 26% of the S&P 500 total return year to date stock price and it'll be about 17% of this year's earnings growth." – Brian Belsky [06:15]

US Dollar and Global Portfolio Sentiment

Timestamp: 07:58

Discussion turns to the US dollar’s depreciation, which has seen a 10% decline since President Trump took office. Steve Liesman explains that while a weaker dollar can benefit multinational companies by boosting their earnings overseas, it also reflects diminishing investor confidence in the US economy.

"From Europe massively outperform... the dollar's weakness is beginning to slow down." – Steve Liesman [12:19]

Christina Partsinevelos elaborates on global portfolio managers' strategies, noting a cautious shift away from excessive cash holdings as market conditions stabilize.

Tariffs, Trade War, and Fed's Outlook

Timestamp: 09:24

Scott Wapner raises concerns about the unpredictability of Trump’s tariffs and immigration policies, questioning their long-term impact on various industries.

Brian Belsky reassures that despite ongoing tariff uncertainties, strong GDP growth remains a positive indicator.

"Earnings just grew 12% last quarter... the financial services industry hasn't lowered guidance." – Brian Belsky [10:23]

The panel discusses the Federal Reserve's potential response to economic indicators, including the influence of tariffs on inflation and labor markets. Megan Casella highlights the Fed's balanced approach to addressing employment and inflation concerns.

"Chair Powell has said... we're going to address the side that takes longer to get back to the mandate level." – Megan Casella [15:58]

Technology Sector: AWS vs. Nvidia and OpenAI-Microsoft Tensions

Timestamp: 23:19

The tech sector faces significant developments as Amazon Web Services (AWS) enhances its custom chip strategy to compete with Nvidia. Shannon Sokotia provides insights into AWS’s Project Rainier, aimed at building a large AI supercomputer for Anthropic using Trainium 2 chips, emphasizing price-performance advantages over Nvidia's offerings.

"The secret weapon for AWS here is really the price performance." – Shannon Sokotia [23:19]

Additionally, the partnership between OpenAI and Microsoft appears strained as they renegotiate terms amidst OpenAI's transition to a for-profit model. Josh Brown explains the complexities of their relationship, with Microsoft retaining substantial leverage.

"It's like a slow motion divorce happening right now." – Josh Brown [23:50]

Steve Liesman underscores that despite potential tensions, the long-term outlook for Microsoft remains positive.

"This isn't going to change our view on the stock owning it longer term." – Steve Liesman [26:43]

Energy Sector: Rising Oil Prices and Top Performers

Timestamp: 42:06

The energy sector stands out as the best-performing sector this month, driven by rising oil prices. Christina Partsinevelos and Brian Belsky discuss top energy stocks like Exxon, Equinix (Equity), Kinder Morgan, and Williams Companies, highlighting their resilience and growth prospects.

"Exxon is up 19%... the median return for aerospace and defense sector stocks year to date is 17%." – Christina Partsinevelos [42:33]

Brian Belsky praises Exxon’s strategic plays in natural gas, while Stephanie Link calls the energy sector the most undervalued in the S&P 500.

"It's the most undervalued sector in the S&P 500." – Stephanie Link [44:15]

Geopolitics and Middle East Tensions

Timestamp: 27:12

Shannon Sokotia reports on President Trump's recent communications regarding Iran, signaling potential military action and heightened US involvement. The discussion underscores the unpredictability of geopolitical events and their implications for the markets.

"We are not going to take him out kill, at least not for now... unconditional surrender." – Shannon Sokotia [27:12]

This overt communication breaks from traditional closed-door US foreign policy, raising questions about the future of US-Iran relations and broader Middle East stability.

Stocks on the Move: Live Nation, Nike, Spotify

Timestamp: 31:35

The panel reviews specific stocks experiencing significant movements. Live Nation receives a positive outlook despite challenges with ticket bots and congressional scrutiny. Nike’s target is cut, yet the panel remains optimistic about its long-term potential. Spotify garners praise for its superior music product and strong market position.

"Live Nation... has just been rallying for three years straight. Great company. Even better stock." – Christina Partsinevelos [31:46]

Steve Liesman shares his value-based investment in Nike, highlighting its potential for turnaround and growth.

"We bought it around $56... operational perspective they have a lot of work ahead of them." – Steve Liesman [32:36]

Conclusion

As the markets navigate through a mix of strong consumer data, resilient equity sectors, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, the panel remains cautiously optimistic. The interplay between technology advancements, energy sector strength, and macroeconomic indicators will continue to shape investment strategies in the coming months.

Key Takeaways

• Retail Sales & Consumer Health: Despite weaker-than-expected retail sales, consumer data remains robust, supported by strong personal income and savings.

• Equity Markets & MAG7: Leading technology stocks, especially within the MAG7, are driving market optimism towards new highs.

• US Dollar Dynamics: The weakened dollar presents both challenges and opportunities, influencing multinational earnings and global investment strategies.

• Tariffs & Trade Wars: Ongoing tariff uncertainties impact various industries, but strong GDP growth and resilient earnings provide a buffer.

• Federal Reserve Policies: The Fed remains focused on balancing employment and inflation, with potential rate cuts contingent on economic indicators.

• Technology Sector Tensions: Competitive dynamics between AWS and Nvidia, alongside OpenAI-Microsoft negotiations, are pivotal in shaping the tech landscape.

• Energy Sector Growth: Rising oil prices bolster the energy sector, with top performers like Exxon and Equinix leading the charge.

• Geopolitical Risks: Elevated Middle East tensions, particularly involving Iran, introduce significant uncertainty into the market.

For a comprehensive analysis and live updates, tune into CNBC’s Halftime Report, airing weekdays from 12-1 PM ET on CNBC TV.