
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee discuss the broad rally across the market and how you should position your portfolio. Plus, the Committee shares the many moves they are making. And later, the desk debates whether Bitcoin is poised to break out. Investment Committee Disclosures
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Scott Wapner
Comcast business helps retailers become seamlessly restocking.
Jim Leventhal
Frictionless paying favorite shopping destinations. It's how nationwide restaurants become touchscreen ordering, quick serving eateries and how hospitals become.
Scott Wapner
The patient scanning data, managing healthcare facilities that we all depend on. With leading networking and connectivity, advanced cybersecurity.
Jim Leventhal
And expert partnership, Comcast business is powering the engine of modern business powering possibilities.
Scott Wapner
Restrictions apply. This episode is brought to you by.
Steve Weiss
Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates.
Scott Wapner
Monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading.
Steve Weiss
Download the latest episode and subscribe@schwab.com Market Update podcast or find Schwab Market Update.
Scott Wapner
Wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Walker. Front and center this hour, the everything other than tech rally. We trade it with the investment committee. Stocks are at record highs, as we said. Joining me for the hour, Steve Weiss, Jim Leventhal, Kevin Simpson, Bryn Talkington. Let's go to the markets on this Friday. Take a look where we are. We're green across the board, as you can see, 49. 5 on the Dow. So we're still watching that 50k number 7000 on the S and P. We're watching that as well. Nasdaq and the Russell and the Russell's been the story very much so in the beginning part of this year. It's up 4% plus alone this week. Dow's up more than 2. Tech is near the bottom of the performance stack. Materials lead technology's down 1/2 of 1% to start this year. What do you make of where this market is? And as I've been asking people the makeup of this market as we're four or five trading days, five and a half trading days in look, I think.
Steve Weiss
It'S been talked about for a while tax and talked about for a couple of years of broadening and now we're truly finally seeing it. And it's I wouldn't say it's surprising because we talked about so much. I'd say it's surprising in terms of the velocity of it and what these stocks are doing. And I like being a beneficiary of it. I don't believe that the tech trades over. I just believe it's gotten more selective because there's exhaustion there. And I think that people are just waiting to sell till till January and pay taxes next tax year. So there's lots of reasons for this to happen. And by the way, I didn't mention but I own some XLI which I bought last week and that's just a placeholder. It's a trade to figure out what other industrials are.
Scott Wapner
Well, I mean it's a. It speaks very much to what we're talking about.
Steve Weiss
Exactly right.
Scott Wapner
Industrials are pacing for their third story straight week of gains. You look at, as I said, the performance stack as we're calling it, up 4% to start the year. So it's right in the mix of the top performers.
Steve Weiss
And if you take a look at the XLI overall, it's basically been flat and hasn't had the same move as individual stocks. I think that's always the case if you're an active manager. You look for those that are gap form the index. So if you look at the tailwinds, whether we get another cut or not, we will get at least one. I believe you still have an economy that is standing by and ready to move much higher. Now a lot of that I believe will be driven by AI productivity. So it's going to be a have and have not. So I remain cautious on the consumer stocks.
Scott Wapner
I do look at Lulu because I crushed it too. Man, it is crushing it. Top sector this week. It's the best since the end. Best week since the end of November.
Steve Weiss
I've missed it completely. I probably continue to miss it although I own Amazon. I think that plays into that.
Scott Wapner
Oh it definitely plays into that but.
Steve Weiss
And I'm looking at Lulu because I look at as somewhat distressed but overall I'm not sure that's how it's going to play out unless you're at the upper end.
Scott Wapner
So though Kev, the Wall Street Journal today mentions what everybody has witnessed in the market. Stock market rally isn't just about tech anymore. Growing economic optimism along with a more cautious view of the buildout is prompting a major quote rotation trademark on Wall Street. Exactly what bank of America's Michael Hartnett is leaning into today as what the best strategy in his mind is. Rotate. Not yet retreat is how he puts it. He raises exposure, wants you to to value cyclicals, banks, real estate, materials, industrials, small caps and mid caps maintain but no longer adding to mag7 which he claims is, you know, defensive, which certainly has a defensive makeup. Everybody seems to be on the same page here in terms of what's going on within this market.
Kevin Simpson
Well, it's almost talking my book with the exception of small caps and mid caps which we can't own. But I think you nailed it with that last comment. The only thing that scares me about this market is that we all agree. I mean, I'm looking at every analyst out there for year end expectations. What do we think is going to happen in this market? We think that the Fed will be tempered. Maybe we get one cut. We think inflation might kind of stay where it is, not really get too crazy. Earnings should be double digits. The stock market should have a good year. All of those things are lined up with my thesis as well and our positioning on it. But when you have consensus like this, I think that's the thing that scares me more than anything.
Scott Wapner
Unless it's, unless it's just correct. Unless it's correct. For all the reasons that Weiss said, people go down the list of reasons why they think stocks are primed to go higher. Sometimes the reasons are right.
Kevin Simpson
They're my reasons as well. But there's a cynic in me that thinks maybe we should be looking at something else. But I can't find the thesis for a recession. I can't find a thesis for this market to roll over and I expect it to move higher.
Scott Wapner
Well, I mean, you speaking of things that have been doing well, as we said, discretionary is the top sector. It's the best week for that group since the end of November. You have trades in that group. You have a new buy, which is an interesting one. I think it's Wayfair, which is a new 52 week high today. And you're getting in now why?
Kevin Simpson
Yeah, and this is a little bit more of a speculative trade because you think with Tarif, this is a company that's going to be punished. But when you look at the chart, it just continues to move higher. And it's not a story of them selling more than maybe they were before. It's not a story of them raising prices. It's a story of efficiency, operational efficiency. Number one. They're also taking market share from other places, regional furniture stores, some of the big players like at Williams and Sonoma and ikea. It's a, it's an incredible story of growth and almost like a turnaround that you could make a textbook case on it. If it continues, this stock should move much higher. But granted it has moved very, very high. It is a momentum trade. So we're taking a small allocation at this point and, and we'll see how.
Steve Weiss
It moves the short position right now.
Kevin Simpson
Not as. I don't know the answer to that, sorry.
Steve Weiss
I assume it's come down quite a bit and that's the reason part of the move.
Kevin Simpson
My answer is going to be not as much.
Scott Wapner
Yeah, smaller short interest than there was Brent. So again, you know, stocks at record highs. We are trying to get to 7,000 on the S and P. How would you assess this first real week of trading in this market?
Brian Sullivan
Well, I think it was Steve that said it regarding tech. I mean Amazon and Google are each up like 6 and 7% year to date. So Amazon I believe is in consumer discretionary. So it's not even in, we'll say the tech sector from a sector perspective. And so I think you're going to continue to see that. But don't forget, if you take the tech sector writ large, earnings growth is going to be around 23% this year, driven large part by Nvidia and Broadcom, which are both down for the year. So those earnings are going to grow between 40 and 50%. Both stocks are down for the year. And so I just think there is this overhang of, of the AI and I think that as you have a steepening yield curve, as we talked about all the different, you know, levers that are going to be in the economy with gdp, all the stimulus, it just makes sense that you're going to get a broadening. You know, we've owned RSP for two years. It's underperformed the best, the S and P both years. And so remember RSP, it's equal by stock but not by sector. So RSP's biggest weightings are financials and industrials. And so we're really happy to see that, that broadening out. But I wouldn't count tech out because once earnings come in, I mean Microsoft probably delivers a 15% earnings growth this year because of their huge cloud business. Same with Amazon and same same for Google. So I think it's more of a breather than a, than a retreat.
Scott Wapner
All right, you mentioned financials earnings next week. Hard to believe, but we here, we're here again right on the doorstep of some earnings and especially the banks as you know, kick it off the KB E, that's the bank etf. A record high again today, hitting its first record since November of 2024. Yesterday it's looking at its best week since last August. Names like Goldman year to date up 7.5%. We've highlighted every day. We have highlighted it every day. Morgan Stanley's up five to start. This young year, Citigroup is up four. Mike Mayo continues to have that as his number one name in the group after a tremendous run in 2025. Stock up 66%. I bring it up and I focus on it because Jim labenthal Farmer. Jim, Is trimming that name.
Jim Leventhal
Gotta trim it, Scott. You know, Scott, and I think everybody on the panel knows that I've been in this name for a long period of time. If you look at the last two years, its total return is almost three times that of the S&P 500. Scott, I really haven't trimmed this name. You and I were talking about things that I've trimmed. So this, this position has grown to be 6% of client portfolios. And that's just really large. I've trimmed it back to about 4%, which is still very large. So, Scott, I know you hate it when we kind of hate it when we talk about portfolio management. This is still a big position. I'm not backing away from it. What I am saying, though, is that this is not the same stock of a year or two years ago. Two years ago it traded at 60% of tangible book value. Now it's almost 1.3 times traded at 9 times earnings. It's now about 12 times forward earnings. Dividend yield was over 4%. Now it's 2%. I think Jane Frazier and team have done a marvelous job. There's still some heavy lifting to do. They now have done the cost cutting. They need to lean into those growth areas that frankly, they have been leaning into investment banking and wealth management. I'm with them at 4%, which is a large position, but it's just not the same stock that it was two years ago. So I felt like I had to trim it.
Steve Weiss
You know, if I could add something to that, please. What's so interesting about that, that that a lot of people don't focus on is that when Citi had a stock that just didn't move, perpetually underperformed, like I know when I was on the sell side, when I was on the Investment bank side, 50% of my compensation was in stock. And the last thing I would do was go to a firm, a company that had a stock that didn't perform, now that they have a stock that's performing and a management team they can have faith in to continue that performance. Their ability to bring in, as we've seen, top flight people is much improved. And that will add to the story.
Jim Leventhal
Steve, it's a great point. As you were bringing that up, I thought you might Mention some other levers that have been pulled because you were talking about stock price. And you know, when the stock price was well below tangible book value, they did a massive accelerated share repurchase. They bought back over 15% of the company. And you've heard me say over the years that I love it when they're buying a dollar's worth of value for 60 cents.
Scott Wapner
They're.
Jim Leventhal
That's what they've done. Now we're no longer at a discount to tangible book value. So that's not a lever they're going to pull. You mentioned the leaning in that they've done, particularly wealth management and investment banking. Now we need to see the fruits of that. We're going to get the Bantamix IPO this quarter. So I'm not backing away. It's still at 4%, frankly, a huge position.
Scott Wapner
Do you think the stock is still cheap?
Jim Leventhal
It's not cheap. It's fairly valued now.
Scott Wapner
Now at 12 times.
Jim Leventhal
At 12 times and 121. 25% tangible book value. Some people will say. I'll give Steven a second. Some people will say, well, what about J.P. morgan? At over two times, you know, J.P. morgan trades at a premium for a reason. Citigroup has to justify the premium.
Scott Wapner
Now, I think they are a premium to the group itself because it does not trade at a premium to the.
Jim Leventhal
Market to tangible book value. Tangible book value. Now, I'm still with it, Scott.
Scott Wapner
I got. I don't have. I don't have a problem inherently with portfolio management. It's kind of like. No, no, you know what?
Jim Leventhal
I know what you mean. You hate it when we say, oh, it's a small position.
Scott Wapner
Well, obviously, it's portfolio management. What I find peculiar on occasion is, so you're trimming City, you're trimming Alphabet. You trimmed win in late August stocks that have had great moves. And if the momentum is likely to.
Steve Weiss
Continue.
Scott Wapner
Why get out? Or why.
Jim Leventhal
I love the question.
Scott Wapner
Points along the way like that.
Jim Leventhal
I love the question. Okay, so inherent in what I'm saying, and this is true with Wynne, which I trimmed earlier, is my belief that.
Scott Wapner
Which was up a ton, too.
Jim Leventhal
Yep. And I trimmed it at 126. Now one. Whatever it is, 118.
Scott Wapner
Okay.
Jim Leventhal
I'd love to buy that slug back. I really would win. Is a core position. I'd love to buy that slug back. And it puts me in this perverse position of like, I'd love to buy it back. 110. Below 110. But do I really want my remaining position to go back below 110, this is the conundrum that we all face. And so what I'm saying to you, Scott, and everybody who's listening is I hate riding stocks up and down. I just hate it. And you know who else hates it? My clients.
Steve Weiss
Well, why.
Scott Wapner
Why'd you trim Alphabet? Let's focus on that. Because you, in many respects, are the face of that stock on our show.
Jim Leventhal
Yeah.
Scott Wapner
Why do I say that? Because way back when, you know, eight months ago at this point, if not a little longer, you defended it more than anybody else.
Jim Leventhal
Yeah.
Scott Wapner
The day that we highlighted what Eddie Cue of Apple had said in the context of a courtroom, where he pointed to search being down for the first time ever on. On the browser.
Jim Leventhal
Yeah.
Scott Wapner
That's when the stock took a huge hit. Some had wondered whether that was an existential moment because it pointed to the loss of market share related to ChatGPT and all of these other large language models which were taking pieces of the search puzzle. Okay. You defended it more than anybody else, and rightfully so. It's one of the best comebacks. I think I said yesterday on the show, if not the day before, that we've seen in some time for a stock, especially one this large, it's knocking on the door of $4 trillion in market cap. It exceeded Apple in its size of market cap, too. Sometimes the story is, if not just getting started, has many, many more chapters to be written on a momentum scale.
Jim Leventhal
You may very well be right, and maybe I should hang on to it. I'm going to tell you something very portfolio management, too. No, there's something more. There's something very human in this. And I'm going to wear my heart on my sleeve here. I'm actually proud, flattered that you've called me out on that. You have called me out on this. Okay. And Pride goeth before the fall. We all know that. We all know that. And I think about. I've thought about Alphabet a lot. Should I trim it? Should I just let it run? The right thing to do is put Pride aside and be willing to get it wrong, that it runs to 400, 450, etc. And take a little bit of risk off the table. Now, let's go back to where we started the show. We're all saying we think the rally's broadening inherent in what I'm saying is I will find other stocks to pick. Oracle could be one of them that have gotten the snot kicked out of them the way Alphabet did back in May. I'm not adding to Oracle yet. It's a possibility. I don't want to wear too much pride and get smacked in the face but I'm trying to pick stocks.
Steve Weiss
You know here's how I look at first of all I've been debating whether or not to buy more Google now Alphabet. I sold some, I sold low. Right. Not all, but I kept the vestige of it and I attitude so I participated. But I think here's how Jim looks at if I can analyze you for a second. Jim's a value investor dumpster and he buys stocks that are in the dumpster and so when they come out of the dumpster when they've regained that value he's getting out. So he's not looking at from the lens.
Scott Wapner
He didn't buy this one in the dumpster. He held on as it looked like it might be going into when the.
Steve Weiss
Butt but Right, right. But he bought it when everything was intact and was substantially undervalued on a PE basis versus the other mag 7.
Jim Leventhal
It was 16 times.
Steve Weiss
Right? It was 16 times. So he still bought it was when it was in the relative dumpster. On the other hand, I take a look at it and I try not to have any view of where it was but where it's going and I've often said that and that's why I'm thinking of buying more because I think this is still going higher. I think that's what I'm questioning.
Scott Wapner
That's why I'm raising the issue. It's. It's a. I agree with you in some respects about investor psychology.
Steve Weiss
Yeah.
Scott Wapner
You know, trade school a little bit on how to think about different positions that have gone up a lot. But getting out too soon because you get afraid, my word, not Jim's that you might hang on too long.
Kevin Simpson
You can't have any emotion. And I'm going to come to Jim's rescue because I run a portfolio.
Scott Wapner
Emotional move he made, admittedly an emotional move.
Kevin Simpson
What it means I'm going to correct what he said.
Jim Leventhal
The message got messed up there I was trying to take emotion out of it. Emotion would have been hey, I'm proud. Look what I did with Alphabet. I'm going to stick it out. I'm going to make Scott even prouder of me. That's the emotion that I was trying to avoid.
Scott Wapner
I got you.
Kevin Simpson
Okay, so if we keep a maximum.
Scott Wapner
Position sentiments by the way. Got you.
Kevin Simpson
But if you keep a maximum position you have to trim it. So I keep a maximum position of 5%. Microsoft, Goldman Sachs these companies are two names that we've owned for 15 years. I trim them and trade them, time, all the the time, fully expecting them to go higher. J.P. morgan was the most recent one that we trimmed. But it's not because of any loss of conviction on the name. It's just managing and budgeting risk. And I think that's what you were doing, hoping to accomplish.
Jim Leventhal
And I just have to sum this up by saying ultimately where I get my compensation, both emotionally and monetarily is from portfolio performance. And these moves are about portfolio.
Scott Wapner
So let me, let's talk about, so let's talk about when to get out or get in in the face of stocks that have gone up a bunch. Because I look at FedEx, okay, year to date it's up 8%. It's a 52 week high today. So it's up 8% in five, four and a half days. Right. Or five full days. And you have a new buy. So you're not afraid to buy it here?
Kevin Simpson
No, not at all. But it's a name that we don't own.
Scott Wapner
I understand that. But you're still willing to buy it.
Kevin Simpson
At a 52 week high, 100% because I think it's going to go higher. And here's the story with FedEx. We like the industrials and we've been rewarded in this very, very short time period for 2026. But we have a full position in Caterpillar. I can't buy more. We have a full position in rtx. I can't buy more. So I'm looking for another name. We haven't owned FedEx in years. There was a period of time when I wouldn't even consider the stock versus ups and it's become a flip in that story at this point. We like the spin off of FedEx. We like the efficiency that they're bringing to the table. I think this is a stock that has, has enjoyed a nice run for the right reasons. But looking at it as an investor, they've increased the dividend by 10% the past three years. You get a 2% yield. It's a stock that isn't having the problems with Amazon that UPS is. And I think management deserves a premium. So for us it's a name we didn't own. And I'm happy to enter the trade.
Steve Weiss
You know, I'd love to buy FedEx. I've been dying to buy FedEx but I'm restricting it because our company, Nimble Robotics, was fully automated. Warehouse has a major partnership with FedEx. But when you Take a look. And this really has been talked about. When they grounded the fleet, the air fleet, that was a disruption to their revenue and to their earnings. But yet they still came out in the quarter and reported upside surprise. So the management of the company, financial management is much stronger now and also saying to Amazon, no, we're not going to keep taking losses on your ground packages is, you know, helps the profitability. So it's a great company.
Scott Wapner
It's part of a positive call today from B of A which has upgraded FedEx to buy from neutral. It also takes a look at Wabtec, reiterates that name as its top pick. FedEx target goes to 365. WAB's target goes to to 253. Jim, you own WAB.
Jim Leventhal
Yeah, I like Wabtech. But there is a problem lurking out there that we've got to be aware of here, which is the, the transcontinental railroad being put together, potentially Union Pacific buying Norfolk Southern. When mergers happen, equipment demand goes down and that could potentially affect Wabtech's multiple offsetting that. And the reason that I'm sticking with it is because we are supposedly rebuilding a manufacturing base here in the United States. States that will, excuse me, will require a lot of freight traffic. Should, should mean there's a lot of locomotives being built, a lot of railcars being repaired by wapdec.
Scott Wapner
I look at other areas of the market that have done quite well and remember the only reason really that we spent any bit of time on the mega cap conversations because of Jim's move in Alphabet. But if again, if you look at the stack of sectors that have done well, energy, it's the second best sector so far this year. It's obviously in the news heavily. CEOs of these companies going to be at the White House today and we'll hopefully have pictures for you about that or maybe we'll catch up with some of them. Brian Sullivan will later on in the day. And if we do get that, we'll show it. I mention that because SLB Schlumberger is up 15.5% year to date, you have another new buy and it's that name. Yeah, we common theme here. Don't be afraid of getting into names that are up a lot.
Kevin Simpson
Well, I'm hoping they go higher. So it's always a nice, you know, it's always a nice reward to look back at a stock that you bought lower, which we did on Tuesday. So I think the stock's up 10% since then. This wasn't a Purchase as a result of what happened in Venezuela. It's a theme that we started late last year leading into industrials and energy. We own Chevron, we own slb. Now we have Marathon Petroleum, which we were adding to throughout November, December. These were names that carried us in 2022 when the tech trade rolled over. I mean they were a godsend for us and we've been very, very light. All we've had was 3% in Chevron for two years. So I feel very strongly about this being a beneficiary of a broader market. Why do I like SLB? Just real quick, one and a half times forward sales calls, 15 times forward earnings below historical averages, revenues at seven year highs. There's a lot of fundamental reasons to like it. And the stock again has been moving in the right direction.
Scott Wapner
Brian, how are you thinking about again on a day where we expect to see major energy company CEOs going into the White House to talk with the president, the idea of getting oil prices down to 50 bucks and then what the fallout is going to be on select companies within the energy complex, be it shale, natural gas. There are a lot of names that, you know, some of that you own that are down a bunch this week, I think on those fears. But how do you think about that?
Brian Sullivan
I think that you really want to pick your spots this year because if you're in the MP in the MP sector, if you're in mineral rights or royalties, those are really sensitive to the price of oil. And if the White House is going to continue to say $50 oil, it's like. And also the inflationary cost of the human capital plus everything else, that's just going to be a dampener on the E and P and the mineral rights space because they are so price sensitive. And so I think that's where you're seeing Venezuela aside, if you're going to play in oil. So like the pipelines, right? Valero, obviously, if you're going to, if you're going to trade that with the refiners, if that actually comes, comes to fruition that they're able to process that heavy crude. But I think there's going to be a big dispersion this year inside of energy just because of the commodity price. So just be aware, I think it'll be a lot of pencils down in the MP sector just because the math doesn't work out. And so they're probably just going to continue to buy back their shares, have pencils down until energy prices get more reasonable for them to actually have a Nice profit.
Scott Wapner
Jimmy, how are you thinking about this?
Jim Leventhal
I think the negativity is still very high on the space and I cite a Goldman Sachs survey. I don't think you covered this yesterday, Scott, but they have the highest number of their 1100. Institutional clients are bearish on oil and the energy sector going back to 2020 when oil was negative.
Scott Wapner
So you're sad mean. I mean activity in this space year to date, obviously we're five days in is not negative. You're saying sentiment positioning is still negative and.
Jim Leventhal
Yes, exactly.
Scott Wapner
Isn't that an opportunity?
Jim Leventhal
Thank you. That's exactly the point. When you see sentiment so overwhelmingly in one direction almost all the time, you're supposed to go the other way. Now we know the reasons why energy prices have gone lower. It's basically because of oversupply. There's not that much news there. There does bear the question of what if we get better growth globally than we expect? Or what if there are supply disruptions all Iran or something else. It does seem to me there's more asymmetric risk for crude oil prices in particular to go higher and with it the energy sector.
Scott Wapner
What about from the refinery area?
Jim Leventhal
So refineries, you know, that's a very complex trade. All refiners are not equal. Some are set up to process Venezuela and heavy crude. Others are set up to process lighter, sweeter West Texas Intermediate or Saudi Arabian. I think ultimately the refiners are a great place to make money. I have that exposure through ExxonMobil, which has a great refinery business.
Scott Wapner
All right. Lastly, we have an event next week that we want to highlight too. It's JP Morgan's healthcare conference. It's like their Super Bowl. You usually get some M and A. You certainly get a lot of talk about drug trials, etc. Etc. You sold a covered call on Merck. I think Joe earlier this week re established his own position within Merck. Merck's in talks to buy the cancer drug maker Revolution Medicines, according to the Financial Times. What about this move?
Kevin Simpson
Yeah, I think they have to be proactive because we know they're going to lose Keytruda in the not too distant future. So they're making lots of acquisitions. I think that's fantastic. We didn't know this news until overnight, Scott. So when we wrote the call, we wrote a 113 call. Stocks around 111, except expires in two weeks. But it's just bringing in some additional cash flow on top of a dividend. We entered the name back in April. I think it was $77 that we paid for it. I'm very excited about it. I don't want it to get called away. I don't want to sell it, but I don't mind taking a little cash flow in a market that might be somewhat.
Scott Wapner
We're going. We're going to take a break ourselves for a couple of minutes. We'll come back. We do have our top calls of the day. One firm saying by the pullback in a cyber name, we'll tell you which one it is, what the call is all about. We'll do that too. This episode is brought to you by.
Steve Weiss
Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates.
Scott Wapner
Monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading.
Steve Weiss
Download the latest episode and subscribe@schwab.com MarketUpdatePodcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts. Before we had ATT Business Wireless coverage, our delivery GPS wasn't the most reliable. Once our driver had to do a 14 point turn to get back on route. A 14 point turn, an influencer even livestream the whole thing. Not good for business. Now with AT&T business wireless routes are updating on the fly and deliveries are on time. And the influencer did get us 53 new followers though.
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A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more@capella.edu. All right, let's talk some cyber because CrowdStrike got upgraded today to a buy from a hold at Berenberg. 600 is the new price target, they say following the recent share price pullback. We view current levels as an attractive entry point. They sure do. They think it's going to 600 brin. You own the bug cyber ETF in which crowdstrikes the top holding.
Brian Sullivan
Yeah, this is actually on my watch list to buy this stock just hit its 200 day moving average. Historically it's actually if it falls below historically hasn't stayed under there very long. And so from a technical entry point, if it bounces off this 200 day, which it looks like it will. This could be a very good mid 3 to 6 month entry point for the shares to go higher. So I think it's a, it's a great call. Great company. They should have 22% revenue growth when their earnings come out with about 7 to 8% earnings growth. So like the name, like the technical setup here.
Scott Wapner
Okay. If my praise of his Alphabet trade made him feel great, my mere mention of this upgrade at Cleveland Cliffs is going to make this man weep. Because it was upgraded today to an overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley the target to 17 from 1280. They say the company is especially well positioned in their view as the only domestic producer capable of true transformation via a potential Win Win partnership with a South Korean steel manufacturer. The stock is up some 6%.
Jim Leventhal
One of these days and to you, one of these days I'm going to weep for joy on this name and I think you'll weep with me, honestly. But I'm not doing this out of pride. I'm doing it because I see the value. Look, there's a lot of moving parts here. They bought this Canadian Stelco, took out a lot of debt and the tariffs hit and that kind of knocked down the value of that purchase. We'll see where tariffs go. I don't know. But what I do know is that auto production is picking up on the back of good demand and they supply a lot to the auto manufacturers. I know the steel prices have been going up, up, up and nobody's really paying attention that. But steel prices are going up.
Scott Wapner
Materials, by the way, are the best performing group year to date.
Jim Leventhal
Yeah. And actually, I mean Cleveland Cliffs had a good 20, 25. Stop me. I know they had, it had a terrible year before that. Nonetheless, they're also. This is part of stock analysis. They had a absolutely terrible deal with a. That was tied to Brazilian steel prices that plummeted last year even as US steel prices went up with one of the mills that they bought from Arcelor Mittel five years ago that ran off in December. So now they're repricing that production to where market prices here in the US are. I'm saying all of this because there's a lot of moving parts here, but most if not all of them are aligning positively for the company in the year ahead.
Scott Wapner
Okay, thank you.
Steve Weiss
Yeah, thank you.
Scott Wapner
Actually, you should thank me. Netflix. Netflix. The target cut to 112 from 130 reiterated neutral at Goldman Sachs. We expect investors to need greater clarity on a number of areas before the stock can garner a multi multiple rerating and or a revisiting of the long term compounded revenue and operating profit growth potential that exists either as a standalone or with the combined entity of wbd. Of course, as that saga continues to unfold. You own the stock. You own the stock. What's your take right here on this stock which is down 30% in six months.
Steve Weiss
I equivocate on this and some days I come in after thinking about it overnight and saying I'm selling it and other day because it can be dead money. I don't think the story is damaged anyway. It's just can I put those, can I put those funds to better use elsewhere? Because you're going to go through the antitrust in Europe, you're going to go through it in the U.S. u.S. Anything could happen. It's not necessarily rules based and looking at this. So I think it's dead money for a while. I think the fundamentals of the company are doing extremely well in my view. I don't know why they didn't let I know they want the studio and it makes sense but I think they're paying an awful lot for it. And I would have let Paramount take it and buckle under the debt at the very least. With that much debt they wouldn't be able to meet the same budget anywhere near it for content that Netflix does for new content year after year. So I'd rather have much more damaged competitors than what Paramount is by letting them have the asset and Netflix buying it.
Kevin Simpson
And that could still happen.
Steve Weiss
Of course it could.
Kevin Simpson
In which case the stock will pop.
Steve Weiss
I pray Paramount comes out with a.
Kevin Simpson
Better off $2.8 billion for doing nothing. We talked about this a lot before. If you don't write covered calls against Netflix, you can't and shouldn't own it. We have a Jan 105 is going to expire. We'll continue to write tight calls against it and at some point we may be punished for that. If it does pop, it will get capped at that strike price. But I love the long term thesis. I think that those franchises would be tremendous under the Netflix umbrella. But just to your point, it'd be better if it if it went to.
Steve Weiss
January 26 calls or leaps.
Scott Wapner
Are you January 26 Altria upgraded to a buy from neutral. Target 63 bucks. At UBS. They say the worst of the cigarette volume decline could be behind it. You own the stock, it's a yield pledge.
Kevin Simpson
You get a fantastic dividend. I don't know whether people are going to start smoking again or stop smoking.
Scott Wapner
That kind of looks like a smoking jacket. I mean, it's the color of one, right?
Kevin Simpson
If I could get away with it, I'd smoke on the set.
Scott Wapner
If it was velvet, I mean, you'd be right there.
Steve Weiss
For a while.
Scott Wapner
Is it plum? What is it? What would you, what do you call it?
Kevin Simpson
I would say mauve.
Scott Wapner
Okay.
Steve Weiss
I want to know who makes a.
Scott Wapner
Material that color qualifies. Hey, man. Guts. He moved to wear it on live tv, but he did confident in himself. Pocket square, too.
Steve Weiss
He must be getting paid to wear that.
Jim Leventhal
I don't know.
Scott Wapner
Let's get the headlines with Sima Modi. Hi, Sima.
Brian Sullivan
I think it's a pretty nice jacket, Scott. Here are the stories we are watching at this hour. Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum says she asked her foreign minister to reach out to Secretary of State Marco Rubio after President Trump suggested the US could begin ground attacks against drug cartels. Now, in a Fox News interview Thursday night, the president said the US has knocked out 97% of the drugs coming in by water and that now was the time to start hitting land. Sheinbaum has repeatedly turned down the Trump administration's offer to send in US Troops to deal with cartels. The State Department says it sent a small team of diplomats to Venezuela to assess the potential reopening of the US Embassy in the capital city of Caracas for the first time time since 2019. President Trump said on Sunday after the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, the US Would consider resuming operations there. And the television academy announcing some rule changes for the Emmys today, including new guidelines on artificial intelligence. The academy says it now reserves the right to inquire about the use of AI in submissions. It will still allow productions to utilize the technology to enter. Scott, I'll send it back to you.
Scott Wapner
Okay, Sima.
Jim Leventhal
Thanks.
Scott Wapner
Seema Modi. Coming up, CNB Sport, CNBC Sport goes inside the NFL and the road to Super Bowl 60 are Alex Sherman standing by ahead of wild card weekend on the new generation of quarterbacks that are changing the game. You got several in the postseason. You don't want to miss this. Coming up next. Hey, Fidelity. How can I remember to invest every month?
Brian Sullivan
With the Fidelity app, you can choose a schedule and set up recurring investments in stocks and ETFs.
Scott Wapner
Oh, that sounds easier than I thought.
Brian Sullivan
You got this?
Scott Wapner
Yeah, I do. Now, where did I put my keys?
Brian Sullivan
You will find them where you left them.
Kevin Simpson
Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.
Jim Leventhal
Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC Member NYSE, SIPC.
Brian Sullivan
Not every sale happens at the register before AT&T business Wireless checking out customers on our mobile POS systems took too long. Basically a staring contest where everyone loses. It's crazy what people will say during an awkward silence. Now transactions are done before the silence takes hold. That means I can focus on the task at hand and make an extra sale or two. Sometimes I do miss the bonding time. Sometimes.
Scott Wapner
AT&T business Wireless Connecting changes everything. At Capella University, we believe accessible education can make a difference. That's why we offer scholarship opportunities to all eligible students. Un futuro diferente estam mass serca de.
Brian Sullivan
Lo que cres con Capella University.
Scott Wapner
Learn more at Capella. Edu. All right, we're back. It's NFL wild card weekend, the road to Super Bowl 60 officially beginning. Our Alex Sherman sat down with two of football's top voices for a conversation about the young quarterbacks leading their teams into the postseason. Alex?
Steve Weiss
Yeah, Scott, I spoke with Mike Tirico and Chris Collinsworth, the Sunday Night Football guys, and I asked them, is it just me or does this season feel wackier, nuttier than most, with parity and the playoffs being just wide open? And Chris Collinsworth had a very interesting point about why he agreed and why he said it does feel a little weirder than normal. Take a listen to what he told me.
Jim Leventhal
It happens on occasion where this new group of young quarterbacks come into the.
Steve Weiss
League and all of a sudden they're the number one seeds. And but sitting back in the background.
Kevin Simpson
Are the Josh Allens and the Matthew.
Jim Leventhal
Staffords and the Aaron Rodgers and you.
Steve Weiss
Go, all right, is this just playtime.
Scott Wapner
Through these 17 games?
Kevin Simpson
All right, we're finished fooling around. It's time to turn it over to.
Scott Wapner
The big guys now and they're going.
Steve Weiss
To go win the super bowl. Or are we going to see this.
Scott Wapner
New era of quarterbacks take over?
Steve Weiss
See, I don't think kids are afraid anymore. There used to be this mystique about, well, you have to wait your time. I think our whole generation of Instagram phone get things to me right now. I'm going to go on Amazon, order it. It'll be here tomorrow. I think everybody's mentality is, sure, I can do it right now. And I think some of these young players are finding themselves in that spotlight and ready for it, as opposed to having to do a slow boil to get ready for it. So Collinsworth basically saying, look, we may be experiencing one of those generational era shifts here, where the old era of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, they're out the door. And this is the playoffs where we see some of this new young crop of quarterbacks take over. And interestingly, Mike Tirico saying that, he says it's social media. That's the reason why these new young quarterbacks are so ready to compete so quickly.
Scott Wapner
Mahomes is hurt obviously and Josh Allen's, if he's watching this piece, he's like, yeah, okay, these young guys are great but don't count me out just yet because I'm young myself and I still have a lot of noise that I think I can make.
Steve Weiss
Yeah, you know, that's a great point Scott, where like where do you draw the line on young quarterback? You got a lot of rookie quarterbacks but you do have sort of a mid tier here. Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy, Josh Allen. Are these young quarterbacks or are they veteran quarterbacks? So I'm sure that that tier of quarterbacks. Wait a second, don't count us out here. We've shown that we can do this. Maybe we haven't gone all the way like Josh Allen, but maybe this is the playoffs where we finally put our stamp on it.
Scott Wapner
Now you get into some other issues with these great, the great announcing team obviously of Tirico and Collinsworth. So thank you for joining us and I urge everybody to check out the full interview on that note on cnbc.com sport. Up next, Santoli with his midday work SA. It's good sounding music, right? You don't mind listening to it. Mike Santoli, senior markets commentator is here. It's like your lead up song as you come to the plate.
Steve Weiss
I wasn't ready yet.
Scott Wapner
Check, get checked in. Make you sound good, you know the whole thing. What do you think about this market?
Steve Weiss
It's so, it's interesting how we've seen this little minor rerotation.
Jim Leventhal
You know, it's all nice.
Steve Weiss
If you want to buy the banks and the airlines and biotech and some retailers and have this cyclical rotation. We've been kind of celebrating but if you want to break out to a real new high in the S and P, you better get the NASDAQ 100 engaged. I think that's kind of the lesson today. Once it was learned that we weren't getting the tariff ruling from the Supreme Court, there was this weird stutter step market said oh no, the retailers were bid up on this basis and then it was just there is tech waiting to, to take the baton. So I think in general you have to start asking yourselves this aggressive start to the year in terms of the upside we've had in stocks going to get us pretty balled up and maybe get our eyes too big for what the data are. But not yet. Not yet. It's actually looking like it's this elegant kind of, you know, rotation back and forth that's netting out to a positive trend. And, you know, the jobs number today probably didn't change any minds, but it also didn't disturb this idea that we could be in for a pretty solid economy with potential Fed rate cuts down the road.
Scott Wapner
Elegant, maybe a little gaudy in terms of the rust. Look at the Russell 5% week to date.
Steve Weiss
And I keep watching the Russell relative to the small cap 600 because Russell's lower quality, more aggressive kind of wild stuff as opposed to the more profitable.
Scott Wapner
600% week to date. I undersold it.
Kevin Simpson
It's.
Steve Weiss
Yeah, exactly.
Scott Wapner
Wow. All right, I will see you on Klosky Belt. Michael, thank you. That's Mike Santoli. Coming up, the bull case for crypto Bitcoin struggles to stay above 90k even as risk is, as Mike was saying, pretty much on. We're back after this. All right, we're back. Take a look at bitcoin struggling to hold above 90. It's at 91 and a half. We'll call it Canaccord. Brin had an interesting note here, not only on bitcoin by itself, but crypto equities in general, in which they say upward catalysts for here include everything from simple technical setups to an easing rate environment to passage of a market structure bill to material adoption of crypto. We can't predict it all right now, but we do believe that all of these catalysts are real and inevitable and that's why they're bullish. What do you make of that?
Brian Sullivan
Yeah, I think the other thing that's also real, there's been a tremendous amount of technical damage. I mean, strategy or microstrategy is at 160, Scott. It was like 480 last year. And so if you look at all of the leverage that's in the system. So I think that technical damage, the money that's been wiped out really has to recover. And typically, I mean, we could get a V shape, but I think it's going to be a minute until the space gets its legs again because of how much, how much capital has just been wiped out from the sell off and all of these levered ETFs and, and just people leveraging to crypto in general, which is highly prevalent.
Scott Wapner
Okay, thank you. There's Bitcoin. There's. I bet anyway. Up 2/3 of 1%. We'll do finals next. All right, closing bell, three o'. Clock. The professor, Jeremy Siegel will be with me. Richard Saperstein, one of this country's top financial advisors. Stephanie link, Jeff DeGraff, Shannon to Kosha and hopefully you. We'll see you then. Brian, what's your final trade?
Brian Sullivan
Infl it's an ETF if you want to take advantage of the broadening out of the market but also add some real asset exposure in an asset light way. Info has an eclectic basket of energy, financials, real assets and materials.
Scott Wapner
How do you like your Texans chances this year?
Brian Sullivan
I think pretty good, right? Go see J. Stroud, 24 years old.
Scott Wapner
All right. Well, you said infl it made me think of that. That's why I asked you, since you're down.
Brian Sullivan
I know, right?
Scott Wapner
All right. The man in mauve.
Kevin Simpson
My final trade is slb. Their best in class with strong international exposure and the technology edge that's driving margins higher.
Scott Wapner
All right, very sharp. Look, enjoy the the weekend. Thanks, Scott Farmer.
Jim Leventhal
Jim, Delta Airlines reports Tuesday morning. I expect guidance is going to be pretty good. The fourth quarter has the shutdown effects. But I'll be on with you, Scott, Tuesday so we can hold my feet to the fire.
Scott Wapner
Can't wait. Jim, it's great.
Jim Leventhal
It's a promo.
Steve Weiss
It's a free promo.
Jim Leventhal
Yeah.
Steve Weiss
Gld Look, I've been buying this. It's going to be more than a trade. And part of the reason I'm buying is because of bitcoins. I think all people that went to bitcoins a hedge are finding out that doesn't work and are going gold.
Scott Wapner
All right, good stuff. I'll see you on the bell. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC. All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may.
Kevin Simpson
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Scott Wapner
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Steve Weiss
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Please visit cnbc.com halftimereportdisclaimer hey, Fidelity, can I get a second opinion on stocks in the Fidelity app?
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Date: January 9, 2026
Host: Scott Wapner
Panelists: Steve Weiss, Jim Leventhal, Kevin Simpson, Bryn Talkington
Main Theme:
A breakdown of the evolving stock market rally in early 2026, focusing on the surge in sectors outside of tech—industrials, materials, banks, and energy. The panel discusses investor rotation, sector performance, portfolio management, and actionable trading ideas.
The episode centers on what the panel dubs an “everything other than tech rally.” As tech lags for the first weeks of 2026, traditional cyclical and value sectors take center stage in market performance. Scott Wapner and the investment committee dissect the drivers of this market rotation, debate the merits of consensus optimism, and closely examine the rationale behind recent portfolio tweaks.
Market Update:
Panel Insight:
Discretionary Sector Strength:
Bryn Talkington flags continued tech resilience via Amazon and Google, despite tech sector lag:
Financials' Breakout:
Investor Conundrums:
Scott Wapner (on consensus):
"Unless it's just correct. For all the reasons that Weiss said, people go down the list of reasons why they think stocks are primed to go higher. Sometimes the reasons are right." ([05:31])
Jim Leventhal (on portfolio management):
"Ultimately where I get my compensation, both emotionally and monetarily, is from portfolio performance. And these moves are about portfolio." ([18:37])
Kevin Simpson (about trading discipline): "If you keep a maximum position, you have to trim it... It’s just managing and budgeting risk." ([18:10])
Brian Sullivan (energy stock-picking): "You really want to pick your spots this year because if you’re in the E&P sector... those are really sensitive to the price of oil. It’s going to be a big dispersion this year inside of energy just because of the commodity price." ([23:59])
Summary Tone:
Lively, practical, and debate-driven, the panelists balance bullish consensus with caution, focusing on strategic sector rotation and disciplined portfolio management amid emerging market leadership by cyclicals and value stocks. Selectivity and risk management are recurring themes, even as optimism for continued broad-based equity gains prevails heading deeper into 2026.