CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary – "The Everything (Other than Tech) Rally"

Date: January 9, 2026
Host: Scott Wapner
Panelists: Steve Weiss, Jim Leventhal, Kevin Simpson, Bryn Talkington
Main Theme:
A breakdown of the evolving stock market rally in early 2026, focusing on the surge in sectors outside of tech—industrials, materials, banks, and energy. The panel discusses investor rotation, sector performance, portfolio management, and actionable trading ideas.

Episode Overview

The episode centers on what the panel dubs an “everything other than tech rally.” As tech lags for the first weeks of 2026, traditional cyclical and value sectors take center stage in market performance. Scott Wapner and the investment committee dissect the drivers of this market rotation, debate the merits of consensus optimism, and closely examine the rationale behind recent portfolio tweaks.

Key Discussion Points & Segments

1. State of the Market & Sector Rotation ([00:55]–[05:43])

• Market Update:

  • All major indexes are green; S&P approaching 7,000, Dow nearing 50,000.
  • Russell 2000 (small caps) up 4%+ for the week; Dow up 2%+.
  • Tech is underperforming, down 0.5% YTD; Materials lead gains.

• Panel Insight:

  • Steve Weiss: "We've been talking about the broadening for years, and now we're truly finally seeing it... I don't believe the tech trade is over; it's just gotten more selective because there's exhaustion there." ([02:07])
  • Weiss mentions buying XLI (industrials ETF) as a placeholder.
  • Industrials have their third straight week of gains; active managers seek outperformance by picking individual stocks over indices.
  • Kevin Simpson: "The only thing that scares me about this market is that we all agree." ([04:53])
    • Warns about the risks of consensus optimism but can’t find a thesis for a downturn.
    • Fed likely to be tempered, inflation stable, and earnings expected double-digit growth.

2. Rotation Strategies & Value/Cyclical Plays ([05:54]–[08:47])

• Discretionary Sector Strength:

  • Simpson discusses a speculative buy in Wayfair, citing operational efficiency and market share gains as drivers despite the stock’s recent run.
  • Brief comments on declining short interest supporting the move.

• Bryn Talkington flags continued tech resilience via Amazon and Google, despite tech sector lag:

  • Notes tech sector projected for 23% earnings growth, led by Nvidia and Broadcom.
  • "I wouldn’t count tech out... I think it’s more of a breather than a retreat." ([07:21])

3. Banking & Financials – Portfolio Management in Focus ([08:47]–[13:58])

• Financials' Breakout:

  • KB E (Bank ETF) at a record high; Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup all strong YTD.
  • Jim Leventhal: "Gotta trim it, Scott. This position has grown to be 6% of client portfolios... It's just not the same stock of a year or two years ago." ([09:39])
    • Explains trimming Citigroup given valuation up from 60% of book to 1.3x, yield down, still positive on management’s progress.
    • Steve Weiss notes Citigroup's improved ability to attract top talent now that stock is performing ([10:48]).

• Investor Conundrums:

  • Scott challenges: “Why get out [trim] if momentum is likely to continue?” ([13:14])
  • Jim responds emotionally and pragmatically, emphasizing risk management and avoiding the pitfall of riding stocks both up and down ([13:22], [15:17]).

4. Approach to Buying Momentum / Highs ([18:47]–[23:26])

• FedEx Buy Example:
  • Kevin Simpson details buying FedEx at a 52-week high, emphasizing the company’s transformation and improved financial and operational efficiency ([19:09]).
  • Steve Weiss echoes management quality, citing its handling of grounded fleet and negotiations with Amazon ([20:03]).
  • Discussion of Wabtec, another industrial pick, along with macro context of a potential Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger’s impact on equipment demand ([21:08]).

5. Energy Sector Perspectives ([21:42]–[26:30])

• Energy as Second-Best Sector:
  • SLB (Schlumberger) up 15.5% YTD; Kevin Simpson recently initiated a position on valuation and momentum ([22:30]).
  • Bryn highlights necessary selectivity amid White House pressure to drive oil to $50, noting E&P and minerals/royalties exposed to downside, while pipelines/refiners may be shielded ([23:59]).
  • Jim Leventhal: "Sentiment is overwhelmingly negative on energy... When you see sentiment so overwhelmingly in one direction almost all the time, you’re supposed to go the other way." ([25:35])
    • Asserts asymmetric risk to higher crude prices exists.

6. Healthcare – M&A and Strategy ([26:30]–[27:26])

• Merck Covered Calls:
  • Discussed in context of potential M&A (Revolution Medicines news), as an example of additive portfolio income while retaining upside.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Scott Wapner (on consensus):
  "Unless it's just correct. For all the reasons that Weiss said, people go down the list of reasons why they think stocks are primed to go higher. Sometimes the reasons are right." ([05:31])

• Jim Leventhal (on portfolio management):
  "Ultimately where I get my compensation, both emotionally and monetarily, is from portfolio performance. And these moves are about portfolio." ([18:37])

• Kevin Simpson (about trading discipline): "If you keep a maximum position, you have to trim it... It’s just managing and budgeting risk." ([18:10])

• Brian Sullivan (energy stock-picking): "You really want to pick your spots this year because if you’re in the E&P sector... those are really sensitive to the price of oil. It’s going to be a big dispersion this year inside of energy just because of the commodity price." ([23:59])

Sector & Stock Recaps with Actionable Ideas

Industrials & Materials

• XLI ETF, FedEx (FDX), Wabtec (WAB)
  • Defensive industrial strategy; picking individual outperformers over the basket is favored.

Discretionary

• Wayfair (W)
  • Entry at 52-week high noted as speculative, emphasizing operational improvements.

Financials

• Citi (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS)
  • Active profit-taking (trimming), but still overweight positions for strong names; Citi no longer a “deep value” after huge run.
• Portfolio rebalancing and discipline in avoiding over-concentration.

Energy

• SLB (Schlumberger), Chevron (CVX), Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
  • Simpson bullish on oil services; Leventhal sees opportunity in negative sentiment.
  • Caution for investors to understand refinery and E&P dynamics.

Tech

• Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO)
  • Alphabet trimmed purely for risk management, not on fundamentals.
  • Panel generally still believes in tech's secular strength; current softness seen as breather, not retreat.

Other Notable Stock Moves (from "Top Calls" segment) ([27:44]–[34:28])

• CrowdStrike (CRWD): Upgraded to Buy (Berenberg) after share price pullback.
• Cleveland Cliffs (CLF): Morgan Stanley upgrade; seen as undervalued with turnaround drivers.
• Netflix (NFLX): Goldman neutral, cut price target. Panel sees “dead money” due to pending M&A/antitrust.
• Altria (MO): UBS upgrade to Buy for yield investors; “worst of cigarette volume decline could be behind it.”

Crypto Check-in ([43:39]–[45:11])

• Bitcoin: "Struggles to stay above 90k."
• Bryn: "Tremendous amount of technical damage... It’s going to be a minute until the space gets its legs again because of how much capital has just been wiped out." ([44:33])
• Bullish longer-term catalysts exist, but technicals/positioning remain weak.

Sports Segment – NFL Playoff Youth Movement ([38:38]–[41:08])

• Mike Tirico & Chris Collinsworth discuss the rise of new-generation quarterbacks.
  • Collinsworth: “Used to be you had to wait your time… now, kids aren’t afraid anymore... they’re ready.” ([39:36])
  • Tirico credits social media for younger QBs’ rapid confidence and readiness.

Final Trades & Closing Thoughts ([45:38]–[46:46])

• Bryn Talkington: INFL ETF – plays broadening market with real asset exposure (energy, financials, materials)
• Kevin Simpson: SLB – “Best-in-class technology edge driving margins higher.”
• Jim Leventhal: Delta Airlines (DAL) – Expects positive earnings guidance
• Steve Weiss: GLD (Gold ETF) – “Bitcoin as a hedge doesn’t work; people returning to gold.”

Summary Tone:
Lively, practical, and debate-driven, the panelists balance bullish consensus with caution, focusing on strategic sector rotation and disciplined portfolio management amid emerging market leadership by cyclicals and value stocks. Selectivity and risk management are recurring themes, even as optimism for continued broad-based equity gains prevails heading deeper into 2026.