CNBC’s Halftime Report: The Fate of the Record Rally (September 8, 2025)

Host: Frank Holland (in for Scott Wapner)
Investment Committee: Bryn Toffington, Joe Terranova, Steve Weiss, Jim Lebenthal

Episode Overview

In this episode, the panel examines the sustainability of the stock market’s record rally as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ approach or hit all-time highs. With two key inflation reports and a critical revision to last year’s jobs data looming, the conversation centers on the Federal Reserve’s next moves, the potential for a new cycle of rate cuts, and sector opportunities if market conditions shift. The show also covers investor sentiment, sector rotation, bank and alternative asset manager performance, and reactions to major stock moves (Broadcom, Nvidia, Robinhood, Applovin), along with picks and final trades.

Key Segments & Discussion Points

1. Market Context & Federal Reserve Outlook

• [00:32-05:06]
  • The market is up across the board with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ at/near all-time highs.
  • Key catalysts this week: two inflation reports, annual jobs revision.
  • Discussion on whether the “bullish momentum is intact” or “in jeopardy”.

Rate Cuts in Focus

• Joe Terranova:
  “The momentum as it relates to the bullish nature of the market right now is intact... Tomorrow’s [BLS] statistics are going to be incredibly important... It's going to be about how many rate cuts potentially we're going to get.” [02:14]

• Brent Thill:
  “I think we're going to get a rate cut. Powell's been clear, he doesn't want to cut rates, raise rates. ...Earnings were up 11% versus...the expected 4%. ...When you look at earnings, when you look at [growth in] data centers, it’s hard to think we’re really going to go off the rails economically.” [03:56]

• Steve Weiss:
  “Every day we actually get information on the economy and lately none of it's been good. ... Economic numbers are declining. That’s unquestionable... What's really weakening jobs is AI and that's very, very clear... I’m not sure that Fed cuts will be able to meaningfully reverse jobs.” [05:21]

Investor Sentiment & Margin Debt

• Frank Holland / Scott Wapner raises concerns over “margin debt at an all-time high,” and investor willingness to take risk.
• Weiss:
  “You've really got a bifurcated economy... The question is can the other part ... bail out the economy and how important is it to have those that can't? ...My view is the market's kind of toppy now, but I see no reason to sell.” [07:47]

2. Potential Risks & Macro Uncertainties

• [08:38-14:40]

  • Jim Lebenthal introduces the risk of “nothing going on” this week, meaning lack of new catalysts could leave the market vulnerable to a mild pullback.
  • Tariff policy risk highlighted: overturning tariffs could spur fiscal pressure and inflation.
  • Concerns about rising yields abroad impacting US bond yields if deficit pressures mount.

• Joe Terranova:
  “In the last several days the retreat in yields is a significant story... You have a two year, I believe, at its lowest level since 2022... You're beginning to get a little bit of a competition there where you see those spreads.” [11:12]

3. Rate Cuts: How Many and How Fast?

• [14:40-17:47]

  • Morgan Stanley note: expects “choppy price action in the short term” due to restricted Fed flexibility.
  • Committee consensus: a September rate cut is “highly probable,” but disagreement on pace/timing for more.

• Steve Weiss:
  “My thought is the first of many [rate cuts]. But the timing of the many is uncertain and will be dependent... You’ve got a race... the economy versus inflation.” [15:41]

• Brent Thill:
  “At this level of inflation we're about 100 basis points too tight on the short end... The glide path would be two to three [cuts], ...but I don’t think we’ll get a full 100 [bps] until we get the all-clear that the inflation from tariffs has truly been just a one-time event.” [16:41]

4. Where Should Investors Put New Money? Sector Rotation & Banks

• [17:47-20:29]

  • Wolfe favoring financials as the “top sector for new money.”

  • Joe Terranova:
    “Right now regional banks are coming back into favor... There’s talk about small caps. This is the moment where you're seeing the revival.” [18:02]

  • Jim Lebenthal:
    “I think it’s all of the above... Asset managers which have gotten cheap recently... the base case has to be that the economy continues to expand, that interest rates go lower. ...IPOs have picked up [benefiting] capital markets of companies like Goldman Sachs, like Citigroup.” [19:28]

IPO Market Notables

• IPOs are happening, but “are they actually working?” (many down sharply post-listing; caveat emptor).

5. Alternative Asset Managers & Financials—Best of Breed

• [21:24-24:59]

  • Conversation covers Apollo, KKR: long-term growth, fee revenues, insurance exposure.

  • Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan regarded as “core compounders.”

    • Weiss:
      “Goldman is just... a franchise... at the top of the pack... When the underwriting cycle fully takes hold... their pipeline is tremendous... I think Goldman's going to do fine. It's just one of those permanent compounders...” [23:32]

    • Jim Lebenthal:
      “If you’re going to overweight an industry, you have to be in the best of breed... JP Morgan is that.” [24:59]

  • American Express strength highlighted as signal affluent consumers are still spending. [25:28]

6. Stock Moves: Broadcom, Nvidia, Robinhood, Applovin

• [29:07-34:36]

Broadcom/Nvidia Divergence

• Joe Terranova (Broadcom owner) notes shock at upside momentum and potential new customers (OpenAI).

  • “I am somewhat surprised by this... the expectations were very high... it's very clear that OpenAI is diversifying exposure.” [29:07]

• Discussion that volatility in Nvidia is normal, not a concern unless fundamentals shift.

• Steve Weiss:
  “Volatility presents opportunity. It's not risk. ... I'm not worried about Nvidia given its growth rate. Sure it's expensive, but given its growth rate, the peg is not overly out of sight. Broadcom on the other hand... too expensive and I don’t think they're going to take over Nvidia anytime soon.” [30:27]

S&P 500 Additions: Robinhood & Applovin

• Immediate price jumps for both after inclusion; “getting a boost because it's added to the SPY.”

• Brent Thill (Robinhood owner):
  “It’s been exciting to see... Vlad and team mature... They really evolved and matured... The profitability screen tells you this is a real durable company.” [32:07]

• Joe Terranova (Applovin owner):
  “This is kind of the catalyst... Does that get me excited? No... it's still a good company... This is still an AI focused company that is helping with ad targeting... But certainly the valuation is high.” [33:14]

7. ETF/Alternative Investing Trends

• [39:41-41:54]
  • Dom Chu spotlights new ETFs mimicking the strategies/holdings of “star investors” (e.g., Warren Buffett, Bill Ackman).
  • Adam Patti (VistaShares CEO):
    “Bill Ackman, who we have we hold in very high regard, was the number one opportunity for us based on his holdings.”
    “We do a covered call strategy on all the holdings ...to provide steady, repeatable income every month — 1.25%.” [40:20-41:17]

8. Calls of the Day & Final Trades

• [42:54-46:57]

Biotech

• Wolf bullish on biotech.
  Jim Lebenthal:
  “I look at Abbvie and Vertex differently... These two companies have a lot of drugs that are already approved, earning a lot of money... attractive valuations... That’s where I like to play.” [42:54]

Other Stocks Mentioned

• Veeva upgraded: “...delivered on its revenue growth... about 15% below its all-time high from August of 2021.” [43:52]
• Vistra: “...in the middle of a pullback.” [44:38]
• Freeport for copper (with gold upside).
• KKR “great time to pick up” (Brent).
• Alphabet: “still attractively priced” (Jim).
• BitCoin: “slowly making its way back” (Weiss).
• Corning (GLW): “momentum is building” (Joe).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Joe Terranova:
  “September’s generally a bad month, but there’s a uniqueness to this September. The Federal Reserve is cutting into an economy that is not a recessionary environment.” [02:14]

• Steve Weiss (on bifurcated economy):
  “5%, 10% pay 50% of all taxes in the US... you’ve really got a bifurcated economy. ... So my view is the market’s kind of toppy now, but I see no reason to sell.” [07:47]

• Jim Lebenthal (on tariffs):
  “If you want to know what the one risk to my generally quite rosy outlook is for the end of the year, that risk is actually that the tariffs get overturned ... That will probably require a return of $150 billion of collected tariffs so far ... It will probably put sustained upward pressure on inflation.” [09:27]

• Brent Thill:
  “If yields start coming down ... that's very positive for the economy. It’s very positive for homebuilders, Home Depot, private real estate.” [13:21]

• Frank Holland:
  “Are the IPOs working? ... They’ve been happening but they don’t seem to be working at least right now.” [20:44]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [00:32] - Market context and setup
• [02:14] - Bullish momentum and uniqueness of September
• [05:21] - Investor sentiment, margin debt concerns
• [09:27] - Macro risks: tariffs, inflation, global yields
• [14:40] - Rate cut outlook and debate
• [17:47] - Sector rotation, favoring financials
• [21:24] - Alternative asset managers discussion
• [23:32] - Goldman Sachs as a “permanent compounder”
• [29:07] - Broadcom and Nvidia divergence
• [32:07] - Robinhood and Applovin S&P 500 additions
• [39:41] - ETF edge: tracking legendary investors
• [42:54] - Biotech and other “calls of the day”
• [45:59] - Final trades

Summary Takeaways

• The consensus is a Fed rate cut is coming, but uncertainty remains about the pace.
• The bull market may be losing some breadth, but underlying fundamentals in certain sectors (tech, semiconductors, financials) are still robust.
• Risks to the rally include trade/tariff uncertainty, unemployment trends influenced by AI, fiscal deficits, and a lack of near-term catalysts as earnings season winds down.
• Sector rotation is top of mind: financials, asset managers, and selective biotechs are favored. IPO market is heating up even if immediate results are mixed.
• Major movers (Broadcom, Nvidia, Robinhood, Applovin) demonstrate how index additions and narrative catalysts can quickly shift sentiment and flow.
• The investment committee is constructive but wary, recommending best-of-breed picks and opportunistic buying on market dips, especially if volatility strikes.

For more market insights and the latest on sector rotations, catch the next Halftime Report on CNBC, weekdays 12-1PM ET.