Scott Wapner (3:09)

Environment, could that revision open up the door for possibly a 50 basis point cut? If you look on the CF slight chance about 10% of that happen.

Joe Terranova (3:16)

I think this is more about the path of rate cuts for the remainder of 25. How many rate cuts do you get after the rate cut, which I think we all know with a high degree of certainty, certainty rather is going to be delivered next Wednesday.

Scott Wapner (3:30)

Brent, talking to you, agree with Joe here. I mean, do you think that tomorrow, especially that jobs revision number, could that solidify the fact that we're going to get a rate cut coming up just 10 days away when that Fed makes the decision? And could it kind of give a sense of the path that we're going on or could it raise some concerns about the economy? I mean, I'm seeing some estimates here. If you look at Ed Yardeni, he put out a note, he believes the revision could be downward anywhere from 4 and 50,000 to 750,000.

Brent Thill (3:56)

Yeah, I mean, the revisions are what has everyone, you know, frustrated, obviously with the magnitude. I agree with Joe. I think we're going to get a rate cut. I think that, you know, Powell's been clear, he doesn't want to cut rates, raise rates. And so if we get a path and we're going to start getting a few rate cuts, I will say on the economy, when we go back and look at the quarter of earnings we just had, you know, earnings were up 11% versus, you know, up 4%, which is what expected. And within the MAG7 stocks, I think their earnings in total grew 22%, you know, double the market. And so when you, I listen to a bunch of these earnings calls outside of some retailers and some other specific companies, you're not, you're not hearing anyone saying the economy struggling. And then on top of that you have data centers are now becoming a really meaningful part of GDP growth versus historically, you know, just the consumer. And so to me, it's hard to think that we're really going to go off the rails economically when you look at earnings, when you look at all the manufacturing, just specifically with data centers. And so I think if we start getting a small amount of rate cuts, earnings continue to grow, we're going to continue to push to higher levels.

Scott Wapner (5:06)

So why is I want to come over to you? I mean, Brinson, it's hard to believe we're going to see anything that's going to make us think we're off the rails economically. But what about the markets? What about investor sentiment? Are you worried this week at all about investor sentiment changing and the secular bull market may be hitting some type of snag?

Steve Weiss (5:21)

I'm not really worried about investor sentiment. Tell you, just seem it's always positive, even in down markets. Let's hold it and not sell it. Except for the real panic moments, I don't see that coming. But yeah, I think every day we actually get information on the economy and lately none of it's been good. So while earnings were good, that's sort of backward looking. We see the jobs. I don't expect any revisions because the head of BLS is out and the revisions were all her fault. So without them and with Trump just having complete roughshod over it, we shouldn't see it. Now I'm being facetious, but the numbers, the economic numbers are declining. That's unquestionable. Where the Fed could go 50 instead of 25 right now, next week. Yeah, right now we know that, that, that tariffs aren't going higher and in fact they may be taken off completely. So if they're taken off completely, there goes inflation. Right. I'm talking about Supreme Court decision. Don't know when it'll be, but they're fast tracking it. Then I think you have a clear path, the Fed to continue to cut and I think they should cut because of what's happening with the economy. Now the other question, of course, the other side of that is if you do away with the tariffs, then there's a consumer actually doing better and the economy is not weakening. But what's really weakening jobs is AI and that's very, very clear. And that dovetails into Brent's comment about data centers. So I think that's just going to be an ongoing story and I'm not sure that that Fed cuts will be able to meaningfully reverse jobs. So right now you stay with the winners. If you take a look at earnings Last quarter it was very strong, but is also centered in just relatively few companies, not broad, broadly throughout the S.

Scott Wapner (7:04)

And P. Are you sure investors are always going to stay positive? I want to show a chart really quick. No, no, no.

Steve Weiss (7:08)

I'm generalization.

Scott Wapner (7:10)

Well, I know you make a generalization, but Evercore they put out a note over the weekend. Julian Emanuel and his team, they were looking at margin debt. Now the data is not necessarily new. It actually came out a little while ago and it only actually tracks up to, I believe, July. I saw you nodding, Joe. But I think when you look at margin debt at an all time high right now, it's a lot of confidence from investors. And Julian Emanuel points out that a lot of that is based on the strength in the job market that people have jobs, they're feeling pretty comfortable. If we see data that changes that picture. And also just the reality, as you mentioned, ise disrupting a lot of hiring, especially entry level jobs. Does that change the investor willingness to invest on margin and honestly just take some of these riskier bets that seems to be pushing the market higher.

Steve Weiss (7:47)

Yeah, well, look at it this way. You know, whatever it is, 5%, 10% pay, 50% of all taxes in the U.S. something like that, you've really got a bifurcated economy. You've got those that are under pressure, have been under pressure for a couple of years now in terms of rising prices, in terms of wage growth being flat, not matching it. And in terms of, you know, I'd say weak, very weak drop job growth, they're going to continue to be under pressure. So the question is can the other part of the economy that accounts for most of the spending, can they bail out the economy and how important is it to have those that can't? In terms of what we're looking at, I think it's important and it's. But they're not going to be focused on. So. So my view is the market's kind of toppy now, but I see no reason to sell.

Scott Wapner (8:38)

I think that's a great question because if you know anybody that's an accountant, a consultant, a lawyer is disrupting things. You know, consultants especially, I hear from them, engagements are making a lot less money right now and a lot of other industries in the white collar areas, they're being disrupted, can't get jobs. You know, I mean that's entry level. But you're talking about the high income earners. Those are the people who are doing a lot of the spending. Their jobs are being disrupted as well. Jim, you're in the unenviable position of listen to what everybody has to say and kind of given your opinion, what do you think? Are very patient man, by the way. He's very patient. Very patient and very unusually.

Steve Weiss (9:11)

He is, he is the anchorman.

Scott Wapner (9:13)

Is there something coming up this week that you think it could derail this rally that could change sentiment in the market and shift investor dollars away from tech and other areas? A lot of growth, maybe back to defensive trades like Staples. Keeping in mind, we do have gold hitting an all time high this week.

Jim Lebenthal (9:27)

Yeah. So I've got two different perspectives here and the first one dovetails with your question, which is you said this week, I think the risk this week is that actually nothing's really going on. Yes, you got Oracle earnings tomorrow, but at this point the earnings picture in a backward looking sense is already in place. As far as cpi, ppe. Yes, it matters, of course it matters. But it would have to be pretty dramatically hot to turn the Fed away from rate cutting next week. So I think really what the problem is is that this market, if it's going meaningfully higher, is going to rely on earnings growth. Brin pointed that out. And we're not even into the pre announcement season, let alone the third quarter reporting reporting season. So this is kind of Dullesville as far as this week goes. And that could leave a little bit of room to the downside as the buyers have really kind of outspent themselves in my opinion at this point in time. As I look forward past this week, as I look to the end of the year, there's a lot of things to like including a Fed that's cutting rates, including prices, profit growth, including deregulation. If you want to know what the one risk to my generally quite rosy outlook is for the end of the year, that risk is actually that the tariffs get overturned. Here's why. That will probably require a return of 150 billion of collected tariffs so far. That will require more debt issuance by the treasury, putting upward pressure on interest rates. It will also be stimulative to the economy. If that $150 billion just comes back into corporate America, that will be stimulative. It will probably put sustained upward pressure on inflation. And while the administration will find new rules, new statutes to use in order to implement those tariffs, that is actually a risk that I'm looking at. I think at this point what we need more than anything is trade policy uncertainty and the legal trajectory here looks like it might increase that uncertainty.

Joe Terranova (11:12)

Certainly in the last several days the retreat in yields is a significant story. It's a significant story for all investors. You have a two year, I believe at its lowest level since 2020 to the 30 year at 4.7. Oh, that's a three month low and you've got the 10 year pressing towards 4%. I'm hearing a lot in the asset allocation world about investors that are saying, okay, I don't need to take the equity risk. I'll actually use high yield as an equity replacement as these yields continue to push forward. So you're beginning to get a little bit of a competition there where you see those spreads, fixed income is starting spreads.

Scott Wapner (11:50)

Yes, it's looking more attractive.

Jim Lebenthal (11:52)

No, no, spreads are tight like crazy.

Scott Wapner (11:56)

Historically tight because I mean bonds actually had a negative return in September. That's. I was asking in August. Excuse me, but. So you're saying that overall for the.

Joe Terranova (12:04)

Year though, it's been a strong year for investment grade for high yield. And what investors are now doing is the expectation is if in fact you get lower yields, you continue to get that push towards lower yields. You want to have the quality in fixed income owning investment grade and potentially using it as an equity.

Jim Lebenthal (12:22)

Joe, if I may and Frank, let me do this quickly. I mean your point is well made about lower yields. Do bear in mind what's going on in France, the United Kingdom and several developed nations where yields are spiking right now and they're spiking in response to fiscal conditions that are bad. Okay. Budget deficits that are really bad in continental Europe. And what I was saying, and I am concerned about the tariffs being overruled for this reason, is that if our fiscal deficit situation gets worse, we could see those yields spike in a hurry here.

Steve Weiss (12:51)

Yeah, we'll still be the best house on a bad block. You know, we have a lot more ability to fund our treasury than they do. So. So I have, I harbor the same concerns, but I also think there's a positive to it and that means that margins for companies will be going higher if we do away with tariffs.

Scott Wapner (13:12)

So Brett, I want to get you involved in this conversation. We're talking about bond yields. Are you agreeing with Joe here about. Well, I don't want to put words in your mouth. You go ahead.

Brent Thill (13:21)

Well, I think that you have to think about if yields are coming down like this seem to be a recession on the horizon. I get this like event that Jim is talking about that that would have real impact because Scott Benson was talking about it this weekend. The treasury would have to put pay that money back so that is definitely like an exogenous event that we'll have to watch. But I think that if you think about yields coming down, there's real estate, you look at houses and total real estate in the United States is about a $35 trillion asset class is well larger than annual US US US GDP. And so if yields start coming down and you start getting actually a little bit of falling in just the real estate market as well, that is very positive for the economy. It's very positive for homebuilders, it's positive for Home Depot, it's positive for private real estate. And so I do think there's this silver lining of rates coming down if you're not having an event causing them. And I think that is also, you're also going to see that we haven't seen any impact from the bill that was passed, the OBB that has passed. I think it'll take several months if not going into 2026. And so if we can glide into 2026 with just the economy weakening but not stalling, I do think those stimulative natures of the bill as well as rates coming down and what that will do to the real estate market will be very positive for the economy writ large.

Scott Wapner (14:40)

You know, it seems like we're talking about like it's already kind of preordained that we're going to rate cutting cycle as opposed to just possibly one rate cut. Sort of bounce something off. If anybody jump in. Morgan Stanley out with a note headline Choppy price action in the short term. They basically said with the Fed still focused on the potential for inflation and Labor Day a week, but not bad enough. There's questions in terms of just how much the Fed can cut in the near term. They think that's going to lead to some choppy price action this month and maybe even in October.

Steve Weiss (15:06)

The base.

Joe Terranova (15:07)

I'm sorry, real quick. I agree with that premise and that's why the BLS revisions are important tomorrow. CPI on Thursday is important. Next week you're getting a rate cut, but thereafter I'm unsure.

Steve Weiss (15:17)

Yeah, I mean look, I think the base case remains 25 bips. However, I think you've seen a reaction in the market.

Scott Wapner (15:24)

But the first of many or just one and then we'll wait and see.

Steve Weiss (15:27)

No, they'll be, they'll. It's the first of many.

Scott Wapner (15:30)

But that's what's giving you all that because we're going to get to inflation reports that could be very sticky. Jay Powell was okay with 2.9, the last PC but if we're at 3.2.9 here, what gives you the confidence going to keep cutting?

Steve Weiss (15:41)

Well, let me give you the clarity by finishing my thought. My thought is the first of many. But the timing of the many is uncertain and will be dependent. You've got a race right now and the race is the economy versus inflation. So if you figure that that the, and it's how the Fed adopts tariffs in terms of inflation, if they think it's one and done, we've seen the worst of it then you know, then they may be confident to go in successive meetings but they want to get in front of a declining economy which you know talking CEOs and, and talk to investors that are credit investors. They do think the economy is just continuing to decline. Last quarter inside I mean I'm looking.

Scott Wapner (16:24)

At the estimate for core 3.1%, the estimate for headline 2.9% going to be a hot number.

Steve Weiss (16:29)

I think it's going to be a hot number this week.

Scott Wapner (16:30)

I see, I see you nodding. I mean let's say we just come in in line with these estimates. Do you still, do you see us on a rate cutting campaign after that or is it wait and see? I mean wait and see for a while.

Brent Thill (16:41)

I think, I think at this level of inflation we're about 100 basis points too tight on the short end. But do understand that the federal want, as long as we're not in a recession, the Fed will want fed funds to be above inflation by about 100 plus basis points. And so I mean I think that you have to understand read these numbers and I think that's going to decide how, how many rate cuts we do choose. Chairman Powell has been really clear. They don't want to do this herky jerky where they're raising, stopping like we did in the 70s. They want to go on a glide path. I think that glide path would be two to three and I don't think one number but I do think we have a lot of unknowns. The tariff impact really there's been a lot of studies that we really haven't seen the impact of that yet. And we'll start seeing it this quarter, next quarter if it has been an inflationary impact. So, so I think we'll get one rate cut and then you know just the timing of the calendar we should get one or two more. But I don't think we'll get a full 100 basis points until we get the all clear that the inflation from tariffs has truly been just a one time event all Right.

Scott Wapner (17:47)

I think the other question right now is where do you want to put your money? Wolf out with a note positioning in favor of financials. They say they continue to favor a mix of defensive growth, defensives and early cycle stocks. Our top sector for new money is financials. Given our view that the yield curve will continue to steep and Joe, agree disagreements.

Joe Terranova (18:02)

Well, look, we have an overweight. We have a significant overweight well above 30%. We've had that since January of 24. However, I've said some of the money center banks, the valuation, you can make a strong argument. It's getting a little bit stretched, I think. What does that lead you to do? If you're looking at the financial sector, there are some industries within the sector that had previously been very strong but have been correcting recently. One of those is the insurance industry. You have names like Chubb in Allstate and Hartford Insurance which have pulled back and corrected. I think on the other side of that you're going to get a pause that refreshes. You can look at some of the asset managers, the brokers and then also the regional banks. We had a deal today you had PNC which purchased First bank holdings for 4.1 billion. That gives them well over 25 billion in assets in Colorado and Arizona. And it really expands the footprint for a super regional like pnc. So right now regional banks are coming back into favor. You're hearing a lot of conversation. I'm reading a lot about small caps. And this is the moment where you're seeing the revival and I'm not going to dispute with what you're seeing within the actual market because small caps have been trading much more resiliently over the last four to six weeks.

Scott Wapner (19:17)

Jimmy, want to come over to you. Your pick for us on Friday. We were all here together or you and I were here together, I should say with Citibank in your mind, is right now the time for regionals? Is it time for the big banks? Where would you put your money to action?

Jim Lebenthal (19:28)

Honestly, I think it's all of the above. And you know, I would include the asset managers which have gotten cheap recently. The Blackstones, the Apollo's, the Blackrock's of the world. Blackrock actually has done pretty well. But I do think that the base case here has to be that the economy continues to expand, that interest rates go lower. I know I was talking about risks before. A base case has risks, but the base case is continued expansion. The budget bill, which Brin pointed out is stimulative. Is stimulative and there will need to be lending for that. And we're here at the New York Stock Exchange and I have noticed and I think we all have noticed over the past few months that IPOs have picked up. We're hearing more and more of the ruckus behind us when a company goes public. So the things that we've been waiting for are happening. Banks and of all stripes. Joe, you've made the point about regionals for quite some time. You've been right. I've made the case more on the money center big bank side and I've been right. Steve's been talking a lot about Goldman Sachs over a long period of time. The point being here is they're all working and they should be working. I do think they're going to continue to work.

Scott Wapner (20:29)

Jimmy, one point of note here. I know you're saying the IPOs are happening, but are they actually working? I want to give a hat tip to our Mike Santoli, his weekend column. If you look at some of the big IPOs, you're laughing.

Jim Lebenthal (20:39)

I didn't say they were. I didn't say they were working. This is good for capital market.

Scott Wapner (20:44)

If they're happening and not working, is that going to continue to be good?

Steve Weiss (20:46)

If you look at all right, no.

Scott Wapner (20:47)

It's a good 60% off its post IPO pop. You look at Chime 45% bullish about 55% Corey, 50% off its post IPO pop. They've been happening but they don't seem to be working at least right? Not right now.

Jim Lebenthal (21:00)

Frank, you're talking to somebody who really does have as as his training value investing. All right, so these things like the figments and Coreys of the world that shoot up and I mean a few years ago I can remember Rivian doing the same thing or beyond meat. Look guys, caveat emptor. I'm not sitting here recommend you buy the IPOs. I'm sitting here saying they're coming and it's benefiting the capital markets of companies like Goldman Sachs, like Citigroup.

Scott Wapner (21:24)

We do have Klarno on Wednesday so this whole room might be filled up with a whole lot of people on Wednesday as well. I want to continue talking about the alternative asset managers, Goldman's cost and coming out saying those valuations as you just mentioned, they have yet to recover their post election highs. Britt, I'm going to come over to you. You and Joe both own Apollo. Is that a good place to put some money? I mean we've heard about the tailwind of the idea of four 1Ks taking private assets. Is that enough of a tailwind? Are you concerned about them not really being able to cash out of their other investments which seems to be weighing on this basket of stocks at least in recent weeks?

Brent Thill (21:56)

Well, I own Apollo and KKR and I think that as we talked about small caps, other areas to invest in to the point that you haven't seen these companies go back to their highs. I think if you think we're going to have a solid economy, I would put my money here versus let's say a small cap because where you have these companies are continuing to grow a in the high teens. Their fee related earnings are also in the high teens. There are these continuation vehicles, right or wrong, that are, that are coming out to create I'll say liquidity and air quotes. But I just think. And also a lot of these companies like Apollo own insurance companies. And so I think you get a lot of really high quality revenue that has a very long duration. And so I think as we have these uncertainty, uncertainties in the economy, these private asset, these publicly traded private asset managers are really great place to allocate for a future day of economic growth.

Joe Terranova (22:51)

A couple of names that we own just to throw them out that have worked remarkably well. Bank of New York Interactive, Brokers, Northern Trust and Charles Schwab, each of those working really well. It doesn't mean your JP Morgan, your Goldman Sachs of Morgan Stanley can't work but you can diversify into some of the mid caps for the financial sector.

Scott Wapner (23:09)

By the way, headline on CNBC.com, private equity giants, they raid Wall street as fundraising talent wars heat up. One of the names mentioned in there is Goldman Sachs. Weiss, you own Goldman Sachs. How do you feel how Goldman Sachs is positioned right now with the idea that we could be on a rate cutting campaign? As you mentioned, a lot of competition out there for talent, a lot of competition to get in those private assets into 401ks. How do you see Goldman set up?

Steve Weiss (23:32)

Goldman is just, you know, it's a franchise and it's, it's a franchise I think is at top of the pack there as somebody who's, who's, who's a client of, of the big firms, their services is just so far above the others they make it the easiest to do business with. And I'm talking from, from big investor and a big asset holder standpoint. By far they've got a deep bench look. I think they're positioned well and when the underwriting cycle fully takes hold. Jim's right. I mean it started their pipeline like everybody's pipeline is tremendous. So, so I think Goldman's going to do fine. I think it's just one of those permanent compounders that you want to hold. Not the only one. I mean I think there are others as well. JP Morgan clearly. But as I look at valuation, sustainability and size of the business, that's much more manageable. We don't know how JP Morgan can be managed when Jamie Dimon eventually leaves. Right. He turned that company around when he got there. He's done a phenomenal job like that. Faith as lieutenants was only one Jamie Dimon. Whereas we've seen great CEO after great CEO at Goldman Sachs because their bench is so deep. So, so I'm staying there. It's no reason to, you know, to get nervous at all about it.

Scott Wapner (24:47)

All right, you mentioned JP Morgan. Joe and Jim, you own JP Morgan. Jim, your thoughts on JP Morgan in this current environment with the idea as you all seem to agree, that we're going to at least a cut coming up in a few days and maybe more after that.

Jim Lebenthal (24:59)

Yeah, I'm a very strong believer in JP Morgan and it starts with what I was saying a minute ago that I'm very, a very big believer in the financials and I'm. One of my credos is that if you're going to own an industry, if you're going to overweight an industry, you have to be in the best of breed for that industry. JP Morgan is that and it accrues to them not just in me saying a platitude like they're best of breed but when you think about banks that get in trouble, who's the savior? Who comes out on the other side of a a banking issue looking stronger? It's J.P. morgan.

Joe Terranova (25:28)

How about American Express and the performance that it has. American Express trading towards an all time high. Take that as a read into the high net worth affluent consumers condition as it relates to the economy.

Scott Wapner (25:41)

Some of the notes out saying spending has really held up. And as some of you, I believe it was you wise that mentioned it's higher income consumers are doing a lot of the spending before we button up this block. Really quick jump. Just looking here, you got a lot of regional bank ownership, citizens first, citizens fifth, third, Huntington M&T etc. I can go on and on. Are you seeing more consolidation after this PNC deal today? We also. I can't remember what bank it was but last time.

Joe Terranova (26:03)

Yeah, I think that's the expectation that you will get further consolidation. You should get some deals. I also think the regulatory relief is significant as it relates to the regional banks. And then lastly you just have the broad based effect of seeing more capital move into small cap index funds and that benefits regional banks as well.

Scott Wapner (26:26)

All right, looking at the car right now, actually pulling back about a half a percent. All right, coming up next here on Halftime, more committee stocks on the move. A lot of love for Applovin and Robinhood shares of both of those stocks. They're popping on news they're going to join the s and P500. We got a lot of ownership here on the desk half times back in just two minutes.

Brent Thill (26:44)

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Scott Wapner (28:31)

News and exclusive interviews from the business of sports.

Joe Terranova (28:34)

You know, this is a multi billion dollar industry.

Scott Wapner (28:37)

Get the CNBC sport newsletter delivered weekly to your inbox. Sign up for free@cnbc.com sport newsletter and welcome back to Halftime. Broadcom shares moving higher again today. Right now up about three and a third percent after its post earnings pop last week. Joe, coming over to you.

Joe Terranova (29:07)

You own Broadcom following through once again. Listen, I am somewhat surprised by this. I had said last week that the expectations were very high. I felt as though the stock looked a little bit exhausted. But certainly as a shareholder you're happy to see this type of performance. I do think one thing fundamentally that is going on underneath the surface is it's very clear that Open Air is diversifying at its exposure. That doesn't mean it's entirely detrimental to Nvidia, but it's spent spending is going to other places. Hock Tan had spoken previously about a $10 billion order. We're learning now that probably that $10 billion order is coming from quote unquote new customer. That new customer most likely is going to be Open Air.

Scott Wapner (29:51)

Yes, according to reports. By the way, you said you're a shareholder of Broadcom. Obviously you're also a shareholder of Nvidia. We're going to show the one month chart of both of these stocks. You're going to see a very clear inflection point between the two stocks. Stocks over this last month, Nvidia is down almost 7%. And you saw Broadcom's performance up over 13 and a half percent. When you look at these two stocks, the inflection point right there is earnings. You can see where the Broadcom earnings are. You see Broadcom move significantly up to the upside. Are you concerned at all that Nvidia is losing its moat? Are you concerned at all about a pullback? We talked about this last week. Maybe a 20% pullback that you might see every quarter. That would certainly disrupt your portfolio at least. I mean, just because of the weighting of Nvidia. Joe?

Steve Weiss (30:27)

Yeah, I mean, look, I mean volatility presents opportunity. It's not risk. So it's a short term displacement unless caused by something that's real fundamental. As you point out, this has happened every quarter over the last year with Nvidia. They beat, they meet, they beat and then the stock trades down because so many else come in, raise their price target. Talk about a major beat. So to sell the news, they bought it in advance. There's Just so much. There's just so much going on, so many cross currents. We don't know what's happening with China. Right. One day it's on, one day it's off in terms of the 20 trip chip. And that's a big part of their business. So will they get that resolved? That's the big question. If not, when you hear Jensen Wang talk, there's an insatiable appetite for their chips for Blackwell. Now the next generation will from Blackwell that they can't even meet in the US So I'm not worried about Nvidia given its growth rate. Sure it's expensive, but given its growth rate, the peg is not overly out of sight. Broadcom on the other hand, I think Broadcom is too expensive and I don't think they're going to take over Nvidia anytime soon. But for less advanced chips that people want, it's a good alternative.

Scott Wapner (31:41)

All right, we're going to move on to some more stocks on the move. Right now we're talking about Applovin and Robinhood. Take a look at these two stocks. They are both surging after they've been added to the S&P 500 app. Lovin up just about 12%. Robinhood also up big. Brin up 15%. Wow, look at that chart. Brent, I'm going to come over to you. You own Robinhood. Your view of it being added to the, to the S and P obviously get that boost because it's added to the Spy as well. Just your view on the stock in this move?

Brent Thill (32:07)

Yeah, well, I mean I've talked about this before. I think it's been exciting to see, you know, this company with Vlad and Team like grow up right in front of us. I don't think, you know, during the GameStop days I could have imagined myself buying Robinhood. But they really evolved and matured and I think for those who don't know as the viewers, to get into the S and P, you have to have a market cap screen. There's a liquidity screen and then most important there's a profitability screen. And so they're checking all of those boxes. Especially from a profitability just tells you this is a real durable company. And I will say from the brokerage side, their user interface and the bells and whistles they continue to add, I just think are cleaning the clocks of so many of the other firms outside of like an interactive brokers which is, which has done so well. So it's just like kudos to Vlad and team for maturing to be Big enough to be in the S and.

Scott Wapner (32:53)

P. Robinhood shares up 15%. So Joe, you own Robinhood but you also own Applovin, the other stock being added to the S and P. It's also up double digits hitting an all time high today. Your view on this company? We do see see a lot of these stocks get a boost by being added to the S and P of course and even when it gets announced. But I do want to point something out. You look at trade desk and block since they've been officially added, both are actually lower.

Joe Terranova (33:14)

They have both struggled for sure. You get that initial boot boost. Rather look, the, the perception is is that in a world where we're more and more dominated by passive investors, being added or the other side of that conversely is being taken out of the S and P&P 500 could be dramatically detrimental. So it's not a good day today for Caesars or Enphase or market access, but it is a good day for Applovin because Applovin needed a catalyst. Applovin in February post earnings surged to a new all time high. It has struggled since then to elevate back above that new all time high during a period where the S and P has had this remarkable recovery off the 8April low. So this is kind of the catalyst. Does that get me excited? No, not necessarily. Fundamentally. Look, this is still a good company. This is an AI focused company that is helping with ad targeting and they're a leader in that industry. But certainly the valuation is is high. The performance since February is indicative of maybe there was some exhaustion. You kind of got the cat catalyst here if someone owns the name and it's not something that we can do in the etf. But I see no problem in kind of reshaping your risk and going out, buying some puts or even taking some profit on some of your ownership just.

Scott Wapner (34:36)

Because you brought it up for a P of Apple Evans, just about 49 right now. Stock at a record high right now. Shares up by 11 and a half percent. We're going to move on. We're going to go to the headlines now with Contessa Brewer back at CNBC hq. Hey Contessa.

Brent Thill (34:49)

Hi there. Frank is Senate Majority Leader John Thune said today he's ready to change the rules to allow for quick confirmations of President Trump's executive branch nominees. Thune wrote in an op ed that the Senate has to return to a traditional confirmation process. Democrats have moved to block nearly all of the President's nominees. Senate Republicans also forced similar delays during the Biden presidency. South Korea says its foreign minister is scheduled to leave for the United States to bring home workers detained in an immigration raid in Georgia. US immigration authorities gathered up nearly 500 people at the Hyundai site in that state late last week. Most of them were South Korean nationals. And Taylor is at Target. The store announced about 500 stores will open at midnight Oct. 3 to sell copies of Taylor Swift's new album, the Life of a Showgirl. Target tells Variety it's made exclusive CD editions of that album that it will carry as part of the longtime partnership with Swift. So I guess not only is Taylor at target, but CDs are back. CDs, compact discs, who knew?

Scott Wapner (35:58)

Yeah, who? I mean, vinyl is back. So I guess why not? The question is, does Travis Kelce go there with her? Yes or no? We don't know. Cadessa Brewer back at cnbchq. Great to see you as always. All right. Coming up next here on halftime, Mike Santoli joining us with his MIDDAY word. We are back right after this break. Stay with us.

Brent Thill (36:18)

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Scott Wapner (37:05)

News and exclusive interviews from the business of sports.

Joe Terranova (37:08)

You know, this is a multi billion dollar industry.

Scott Wapner (37:11)

Get the CNBC sport newsletter delivered weekly to your inbox. Sign up for free@cnbc.com sportnewsletter and we are back on the halftime report, senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joining us with his midday work. Hey, Mike.

Joe Terranova (37:43)

Yeah, hey, Frank. So the market, you know, still trying to hang around the goal here, if you want to call that record highs for the S&P 500. It's a little bit of an uneven performance, not in an alarming way. I just feel like this market is very adept at kind of relying on strength where it can find it today. Things like, you know, Amazon and the big semis and letting other stuff cool off. I know that homebuilders have had an amazing run, but they've also basically they're flying flat today on a, on a day when treasury yields are down further. So I feel like the conclusions drawn from Friday's soft jobs report that we're going to get a September rate cut, but nobody's going to overreact and say that the economy is gaining downside momentum. That sort of remains in place for now. We'll see if we can kind of walk that line. Maybe it's a narrower path as we get towards CPI later this week.

Scott Wapner (38:30)

You know you're talking about cpi. Mike, what about the jobs revision number coming up tomorrow at the 10:00am Eastern Time during the trading day? Do you see that? Being a market mover, I'm sure a lot of people are trying to figure out should they position ahead of that.

Joe Terranova (38:41)

Typically you wouldn't expect it to be now the last time it was a little bit more dramatic than you might have expected. I think people are handicapping it.

Steve Weiss (38:49)

Okay.

Joe Terranova (38:50)

I still think it's been hard to just pull investors off of this notion no matter how what you tell them about jobs, that it's going to be sufficient to justify a Fed rate cut and it's going to be not necessarily an emergency cut not to, to save an economy that's, that's hurting. Of course it's going to be stale data. But you know, I wouldn't doubt that the market might try to seize on any alarming looking headline even if it doesn't have substance behind it.

Scott Wapner (39:16)

Mike Santoli with his midday word. Mike, good to see you. Coming up next on halftime, your ETF Edge on a new product that follows the trades of one notable hedge fund. Don Chu standing by with all the details. Halftime back right after this. And we are back on halftime. Now we're to Dom Chu with today's ETF Edge and a new offering following a big name in hedge funds. Dom?

Brent Thill (39:41)

That's right, Frank. So there's been an explosion in offerings of new income generating exchange rated funds and one provider is working to really stand out by following in the footsteps of some of the biggest names in investing. Now. It began with Warren Buffett and tracking Berkshire Hathaway. And now they're going to start following a notable hedge fund manager. Joining me now is Adam Patty, CEO of VistaShares. Adam, thank you very much for being with us. Berkshire, you've been tracking for a while. It's your biggest fund that you have under management. This new fund you're launching tomorrow Is going to track Bill Ackman in Pershing Square. Take us through why you're doing it. And is there demand to track Bill Ackman in a fund format?

Scott Wapner (40:20)

Well, thanks for having me. So we launched omah back in March, which, as you mentioned, tracks Warren Buffett's biggest publicly traded holdings. And we overlay 15% income target annually, which is paid out monthly. That product has had extraordinary success. It's really resonated with investors. It's reached almost 500 million over the last six months. So we went back into the lab and we thought, well, are there other legendary investors that also tend to pick, you know, have high conviction picks that they hold for long term? Can we capture those in an ETF format and also provide that 15% annual income target paid monthly? We came up with a short list and Bill Ackman, who we have we hold in very high regard, was the number one opportunity there for us based on his holdings.

Brent Thill (41:09)

All right, Adam, and you mentioned 15% target income return. How do you achieve that to pay out those types of dividends to your fund holders?

Scott Wapner (41:17)

So we do a covered call strategy on all the holdings in the portfolio. We're looking to generate 1.25% per month.

Steve Weiss (41:25)

Not one to six, not one to four.

Scott Wapner (41:27)

We're not waking up in the morning.

Steve Weiss (41:28)

Trying to maximize income.

Scott Wapner (41:30)

We're trying to provide steady, repeatable income every month, 1.25%, which we've done with Omah as well as our other ETF Q USA.

Steve Weiss (41:39)

So Acky is going to follow in.

Scott Wapner (41:41)

That footsteps, except with a very different type of portfolio, which is very interesting. Bill Ackman's portfolio is very different than Warren Buffett's. Provides investors a really good way to diversify their core equity holdings.

Brent Thill (41:54)

All right, we are going to continue this conversation with Adam patti over@etfedge.cnbc.com Adam.

Scott Wapner (42:00)

Is going to be joined by Shelley.

Brent Thill (42:02)

Antonio, the chief economist at the investment company institute, to talk about all those macro trends in fund management. Franklin, big show coming up 1:10pm Eastern Time online. I'll send things back over to you guys.

Scott Wapner (42:13)

Dom, thank you very much for today's ETF edge. All right, coming up next on halftime, we got our calls of the day, including a bullish note on one of Joe's names. The analyst saying the recent pullback in that stock, it's actually a buying opportunity. We're going to tell you what name that is coming up right after this. All right. Welcome back to halftime report. Let's get to some calls of the day. Wolf Bullish on biotech and believes the group has much more upside. Jim, you own two names, abbvie and Vertex.

Jim Lebenthal (42:54)

Yeah, I look at abbvie and Vertex a little bit differently than what we generally describe as biotech. Doesn't mean I'm right or wrong, but a lot of times when I think about biotech, I think about up and coming development companies that may have one or two products, products that they're waiting, hoping they're going to get good drug trials on and get FDA approval. I look at Abbvie and Vertex differently because in addition to having drugs in the pipeline, these two companies have a lot of drugs that are already approved, earning a lot of money for the companies. And they're, and they're pretty attractive valuations. Abbvie in particular mid teens multiple. I think it's about a 3% dividend yield. Vertex is a little bit higher but it has this wonderful pain medication that it is up and coming right now, recently approved. That's where I like to play in the slightly bigger biopharmaceutical companies that already have earnings as opposed to the kind of lottery tickets which may or may work out, may or may not work out when a company has only one or two drugs in the pipeline.

Scott Wapner (43:47)

All right, moving on. JP Morgan upgrading Veeva to overweight. Joe, you own this name.

Joe Terranova (43:52)

It's good to give the viewers a name to think about that we don't speak often about. Viva is a great example of that. This is a company in the health care sector. It's cloud based software serving the life sciences sector. If you want to pay attention to valuation, the stock's probably not for you. Double Nichols valuation currently. But the stock has delivered on its revenue growth. Last quarter 16% prior two years 15% prior three years 14%. It's got 50% revenue exposure in the U.S. obviously 50% outside side of the U.S. mid cap company around 45 billion and it's trading about 15% below its all time high from August of 2021.

Scott Wapner (44:32)

Viva shares up about two and a half percent right now. Moving on, Roth Capital bullish on Vistra. Joe, you on this name as well.

Joe Terranova (44:38)

Right now we own three utility names. Constellation and Vistra are in the middle of a pullback. The other name we own is Atmos Energy ato. That looks the best of the free utility name.

Scott Wapner (44:50)

Those shares pulling back about 1, just over 1.5% right now. All right, much more halftime coming up. We got final trades. Stay with us and welcome back. Be sure to catch a special hat on report live from Future proof Tomorrow, Scott Wapner will be with Josh Brown and the committee in Huntington Beach, California. It all starts at noon Eastern time right here on cnbc. All right, before we get the final trades, let's take a quick look at gold hitting a fresh record right now. You can see it's up about three quarters of 1%. Goldman Sachs says mining stocks are a top play into the end of this year. And Brent, you own Freeport.

Brent Thill (45:29)

I do. You know, Freeport is mostly copper. They do some gold. So I think if you're wanting to do a pure gold play, I would go into a gold miner or gold. But Freeport, if it can break above this 46 range, I think the stock has go to 4052. But it's really been stuck at this 4546 range as a, as a, as a peak over the last year or so.

Scott Wapner (45:48)

All right, again, gold moving higher right now. Freeport Macaron, as you were talking, actually just moving fractionally into the positive as well. All right, moving on now to final trades. Brent, might as well stick with you. You're up first.

Brent Thill (45:59)

I think the economy is slowing, not stalling. Great time to pick up KKR. If they execute, they'll grow earnings and revenue at 30% next year.

Scott Wapner (46:08)

Jim?

Jim Lebenthal (46:08)

Yeah, Alphabet, I know it's had quite a run recently. I still think it's attractively priced and it's one that I think you can buy right here. Regardless of what the markets do in the short term, the momentum is clearly there for Alphabet Weiss.

Steve Weiss (46:21)

Yeah, I agree with that, by the way. It was toss up between that and what is my file trade, which is I bet bitcoin came down. It was below 110 and slowly making its way back.

Scott Wapner (46:30)

New highs, Joe, to get the last.

Joe Terranova (46:33)

Football season going to call an audible, by the way. Jets, Giants, another lousy season ahead. But my final trade was tko. The momentum looks pretty good in tko. But last week I gave Corning glw. Just look. Now the momentum is building even further in Corning. I would continue to believe that moves significantly.

Steve Weiss (46:52)

I think that broke the final trade rule. Revisiting a final trade from a week ago.

Scott Wapner (46:57)

Also that's audible. You could become an Eagles fan. I'm just going to put that out. We're going to leave it there. That does it for halftime. The exchange starts right now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast you can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

Brent Thill (47:17)

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Scott Wapner (47:56)

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Joe Terranova (48:00)

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