Halftime Report – The Final Month of Trade for 2025

Podcast: CNBC Halftime Report
Host: Scott Wapner
Date: December 1, 2025
Theme: How to approach the final month of 2025 in the markets—opportunities and risks across sectors, implications of rates and yields, AI’s ongoing impact, and stock/sector picks for 2026.

Episode Overview

Scott Wapner and the CNBC investment committee discuss market expectations for December 2025—the historically strong end-of-year stretch—while debating whether bullish momentum can continue into 2026. Topics include Fed policy, bond yields, sector rotation, dispersion in tech stocks, AI’s impact, and select stock strategies. This richly interactive panel reveals diverging outlooks while flagging key data, macro, and stock catalysts.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Market Conditions and Year-End Outlook (00:15 – 03:10)

• Scott Wapner opens with the market narrative: flat-to-mildly negative markets, rising yields, and Bitcoin slipping below $84,000.
• December is historically strong: “Since 1950, December is tied with April as the second-best month for the S&P 500.” (00:47)
• Joe Terranova expresses caution: after an S&P 500 gain of 16.2% YTD, he’s “less inclined to take risk” in December, citing overseas yields, notably in Japan, affecting US rates. (01:54)
  • He spots “opportunities in health care, precious metals, and maybe even energy.”

2. Rates, Yields, and Fed Cut Debate (03:10 – 06:14)

• Panelists debate whether yields will recede, with Jim Lebenthal more optimistic, seeing current rates as supportive for the economy and markets.
• Bryn Talkington (06:22) sees the long end of the yield curve having come “down close to 80 basis points this year, which is great for the real estate market.”
  • She adds: “The long end actually should steepen...as GDP supposedly goes higher.”
• Scott/Panellists note the divergence between expectations for US/Japan rate trajectories.

3. Market Breadth & Sector Rotation (04:27 – 09:59)

• November sector moves highlighted a broadening: health care, materials, staples, and financials outperformed tech and discretionary. (04:27)
• Goldman Sachs sees “growing acceptance around the potential for further dispersion within the market.” (04:27)

Quotes:

• Jim Lebenthal: “I actually take comfort at where the 10 year is right now…Lower short end of the yield curve is going to help that as is quantitative tightening coming to an end.” (05:09)
• Bryn Talkington: “Within tech, we’re going to continue to see that dispersion of return as people try to figure out who is actually going to be the winner in this ending of the AI race.” (07:07)

4. Tech Dispersion and the AI Trade (08:19 – 15:10)

• The “Magnificent 7” have decoupled; Alphabet is the “clear winner”, Nvidia is the “clear loser” in November (07:42).
• Jason Snipe: “They’re not a monolith anymore…these guys are going to start moving in opposite directions.” (08:19)
• Bryn flags Microsoft’s challenges tracing back to “open-air concern” impacting performance (14:03).

Key AI Segment: The ChatGPT Effect

• Deirdre Bosa recaps three years since ChatGPT’s launch (15:40):
  • “The foundation race is a low margin, high burn business...every advantage erodes quickly.”
  • “The next phase may be driven as much by new ideas as by sheer scale.” (16:59)
• OpenAI IPO speculation for 2026/2027 is batted down—private markets remain lucrative. (17:23)

5. Stock and Sector Specifics (18:27 – 25:26)

Broadcom:

• A top gainer (up 70% YTD); design partnership with Alphabet is a tailwind into earnings (18:41).

Software Earnings:

• Salesforce is “just bumping around” a tight range—Bryn finds little catalyst for upside. (19:43)
• Snowflake: beating Salesforce YTD; “data warehousing has been the story,” says Jason. (21:00)
• Crowdstrike and Palo Alto called out for strong recurring revenue and margins as focus shifts to cybersecurity (21:23).

Retail/Cyber Monday:

• Consumer Discretionary lacks sustained momentum, but segments like Ulta (beauty) and TJX (off-price) perform better. (22:32)
• Costco: Flat for the year; “expensive” but leverages high renewal rates and targets higher-income consumers. (23:09)

6. 2026 Market Outlook: “Year of Quality”? (23:45 – 25:26)

• RBC’s target: S&P 500 at 7,750 for 2026—a mix of bullish sentiment with warnings of near-term softness (23:54).
• Joe Terranova: “2025 was a year of momentum. 2026 will be a year of quality.” (24:11)
• Jim Lebenthal: Hopes for “broadening” as AI should start to boost non-tech sectors, especially consulting and travel (24:27).

7. Casinos, Energy, Financials: The Committee’s Picks (27:27 – 32:54)

• Wynn and Las Vegas Sands both hit 52-week highs on bullish upgrades. (27:27)
  • Wynn: Macau “much better than expected…cash cow for the coming future.”
  • Las Vegas Sands: Offers more China exposure, “a better balance sheet.” (28:58)
• Exxon: Maintains its position as a bellwether energy stock; has risen even as oil has softened. (29:49)
• Raymond James: Removed from Goldman’s conviction list due to deceleration in the financial sector; momentum now with big banks like GS, C, JPM, BAC (31:42).

8. ETF Risks & Retail Investor Behavior (36:11 – 39:02)

• Dominic Chu and Mike Khouw discuss leveraged and inverse single-stock ETFs—90% of which are held by retail investors. (36:11)
  • Khouw: “The power of leverage...can benefit you when asset prices are rising, [but] when volatility increases...those things are going to bite a little bit harder.” (38:13)
  • Fees on complex ETF products also merit close scrutiny. (38:13)

9. Portfolio Moves: Buys and Rotations (40:02 – 43:31)

• Bill Baruch shares fresh trades:
  • AppLovin: Bought on pullback and strong margin growth; likes the AI marketing space (40:02)
  • ISRG (Intuitive Surgical): Robotics plus healthcare—growing 20% robotics revenue, setting up for next year (41:01).
  • SoFi: Bets on continued profitability; sees more “momentum...than really the clean balance sheet part.” (41:33)
  • Micron, Vertiv: Infrastructure and AI chips seen as secular growers into 2026. (42:03)

10. Final Market Temperatures & Trades (44:00 – End)

• Mike Santoli’s column: “Everyone’s leaning a little too much on the seasonal stuff...the market’s reacting pretty well today to the bitcoin tension and just the general kind of giveback of some of the leadership.” (44:01)
• Final thoughts: caution into 2026, with a reminder that a “broadening out” (less concentrated rallies) may benefit stock pickers but not headline indices.
• Panel Final Trades:
  • Nike – Bryn: “Good setup into the low 70s.” (46:34)
  • Amazon – Focus on AWS momentum. (46:39)
  • Delta Airlines – Momentum play. (46:45)
  • Apple – “Remarkable resilience.” (46:48)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Joe Terranova:
  • “2025 was a year of momentum. 2026 will be a year of quality.” (24:11)
  • “I think market structure has changed so dramatically…violent, aggressive moves...resolve themselves much faster than we’re used to.” (10:15)
• Jim Lebenthal:
  • “I’m a believer in the broadening of the rally and a rally into year end.” (06:14)
• Deirdre Bosa:
  • “The foundation race is a low margin, high burn business. If everyone learns the same way…every advantage erodes quickly.” (15:40)
• Bryn Talkington:
  • “Within tech, we’re going to continue to see that dispersion of return as people try to figure out who is actually going to be the winner in this ending of the AI race.” (07:07)
• Mike Khouw:
  • “The power of leverage...when volatility increases...those things are going to bite a little bit harder.” (38:13)

Key Timestamps by Segment

• Market Open & Yields: 00:15–03:10
• Debate on Rates and Cuts: 03:10–06:14
• Market Breadth & Sector Rotation: 04:27–09:59
• Tech Dispersion & AI Impact: 08:19–15:10
• ChatGPT/A.I. Anniversary Thought Piece: 15:40–17:50
• Stock Discussions – Broadcom, Salesforce, Amazon, Snowflake, Crowdstrike: 18:27–21:41
• Retail/Cyber Monday & Costco: 22:01–23:45
• 2026 Outlook & “Year of Quality” Theme: 23:45–25:26
• Casinos, Energy, Financials Discussion: 27:27–32:54
• ETF Edge – Risks for Retail Investors: 36:11–39:02
• Bill Baruch Portfolio Moves: 40:02–43:31
• Final Trades and Closing Thoughts: 44:00–End

Summary Takeaways

• Cautious optimism rules: Most panelists expect decent (but maybe not explosive) performance into December, stronger breadth, but advise not to extrapolate 2025’s momentum into 2026.
• 2026 will be about “quality” and “broadening” – not just relying on the Magnificent 7/tech leaders.
• Yields, the Fed, and cross-border central bank moves (especially Japan) are top-of-mind market drivers.
• AI and tech: Dispersion in performance is becoming the norm; infrastructure providers like Broadcom and hyperscalers like Alphabet are highlighted, while old stalwarts (Amazon, Meta) face skepticism.
• Other winners: Financials, selective energy, some retail (off-price, beauty), and casinos are sector rotation targets.
• ETFs: Retail investors’ use of leveraged/single-stock ETFs is surging—but caution is urged.
• Portfolio ideas: AppLovin, ISRG, SoFi, Micron, Vertiv, Nike, Delta, and Apple make the buy lists.
• Seasonality can’t be counted on: While December is often bullish, “leaning too much on the seasonal stuff” is risky given limited new macro/corporate information.

This summary captures the core debates, stock/sector picks, macro factors, and memorable panel moments, providing a structured guide for listeners and investors navigating the final trading month of 2025.