Halftime Report – “The Final Push for the Year” (12/29/25)

Host: Frank Holland (in for Scott Wapner)
Guests: Joe Terranova, Jim Lebenthal, Bryn Talkington
Theme: How the investment committee is preparing for 2026 amid final trading days volatility, expected market shifts, and key policy events.

Overview

This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report centers on the dynamics of the final trading days of 2025, with a candid and tactical discussion on setting up for 2026. The panel explores whether current market weakness is merely profit-taking, the outlook for volatility, market “regime” changes, sectors and stocks to watch, and the impact of potential policy and geopolitical events, particularly around tariffs and Supreme Court decisions. The conversation also dissects trends in tech, semiconductors, precious metals, private equity, and retail.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Weakness: Profit Taking or Caution?

[01:15–04:25]

• Current Market Status: Major indices all in the red.
• Santa Claus Rally: Missed for the last two years; likely to miss again.
• Joe Terranova:
  • Sees current move as profit-taking but flags volatility, especially visible in precious metals like silver.
  • "More of a rental market than an ownership market" for 2026—expecting fits and starts ([02:00]).
  • Cites a parabolic move and reversal in precious metals as indicative of market caution.

2. 2026 Outlook: Volatility and Event Risks

[03:07–08:42]

• Bryn Talkington:
  • Believes current pullback doesn’t define the year ahead but sees volatility risks.
  • Supreme Court decision on tariffs (IPA) could be a major event.
    “If the Trump tariffs get overturned... that would be incredibly chaotic to undo.” ([03:32])
• Jim Lebenthal:
  • No recession expected in the next 12 months; maintains a positive outlook but flags volatility.
  • Sees opportunities in the “other 493” S&P names outside the Mag 7.
  • Advocates for equal-weight S&P exposure and looks to financials, industrials, materials, energy, and healthcare ([06:10]).
  • Pushes back on inflation worries; sees potential for price adjustment, not a sustained wave of inflation.

Memorable Moment

"We’re not going to have a recession. We will have a positive year next year. But there will be volatility." — Jim Lebenthal ([04:25])

3. Sector Shifts & Stock Positioning

[08:42–15:49]

• Positioning for Volatility:
  • Joe: Be nimble; take smaller positions, trim winners in early 2026, and set clear loss thresholds.
  • Bryn: Likes selling calls to capture higher premiums; sees opportunity in cyclical stocks but with a quality bias.
  • “This year was a good year. I think 2026 will also be an excellent year to take advantage of selling calls…” — Bryn ([15:59])
• Tech Leadership:
  • Mixed views on Mag 7; don’t abandon them, but expect trimming of big winners for tax and risk reasons ([14:19]).
• Seasonality:
  • Joe: In a president’s second term, average gain is only ~3.3% ([17:31]).
  • Longer-term tech tailwinds remain but with caution around concentration risk.

4. Tech & Chip Cycle: Supply Constraints, Price Increases

[20:13–22:58]

• Christina Partsnevelos (Reporter):
  • AI data centers are locking up chip supply—TSMC and memory prices rising, leading to downstream PC/device price hikes.
  • “More expensive chips plus more expensive memory means PC and device makers actually have to raise their prices as well.” ([20:25])
  • Winners: TSMC, Micron, AMD; Losers: Volume-dependent players like Qualcomm, HPQ, gamers.
• Bryn (on Dell):
  • Dell’s PC business is anemic but infrastructure services drive growth.
  • “The only reason you own Dell is because of their infrastructure services group…” ([22:12])
• Joe & Jim (on Qualcomm, Software):
  • The relationship between software and semis is shifting; potential for a reawakening in software after semis’ outperformance in 2025 ([23:08–24:29]).
  • Tax-loss harvesting did not hit Salesforce/Adobe/DocuSign, hinting at resilience.

5. Commodities & Precious Metals

[27:31–30:55]

• Joe (on Gold/Silver):
  • Sold GLD after a winning trade due to parabolic moves and spike in volume.
  • Will likely look to re-enter precious metals, especially silver, if opportunity arises.
  • “In a parabolic move, a big move higher and then a reversal lower… the message is to reduce positioning…” ([27:38])
• Bryn:
  • Advises caution due to historical experience—silver took 14 years to recover her 2011 entry price ([29:18]).
• On Volatility:
  • Margin increases by exchanges amplify commodity volatility; short squeezes noted in silver.

6. Energy & Sector Rotation

[31:04–33:04]

• Joe:
  • Gradually exiting refiners like Phillips 66, maintaining exposure via Valero.
  • Shifting focus toward larger energy names (e.g., ExxonMobil).
• Jim:
  • Bullish on energy diversification: pipelines, LNG exporters, and drillers.
  • Notes bullish structural factors in oil: China stimulus, shale rumors, low oil prices.

7. Private Equity Playbook for 2026

[36:25–40:40]

• Leslie Picker (Reporter):
  • Alternative asset managers struggled in 2025, but 2026 could see a private equity rebound if rates fall and the buyer-seller valuation gap narrows.
• Bryn:
  • Prefers owning stocks of PE firms (Apollo, KKR) over locking capital in funds.
  • “Fee-related earnings are going to be growing around 18–20%.” ([38:18])
• Joe & Jim:
  • Still see opportunities in private infrastructure; some deregulation may help banks narrow the gap with PE lenders.

8. Retail: Lululemon and Nike

[42:32–44:59]

• Lululemon Board Drama:
  • Founder Chip Wilson seeks board overhaul; Jim and Bryn recommend caution, want to see impact on product before acting.
• On Holdings & Nike:
  • Bryn notes “a ton of On shoes and clothing under the Christmas tree,” bullish on tariff relief boosting Nike/On.
  • On Nike’s turnaround, Bryn is holding through the summer: “If the company can just get less worse, the stock price could be at $75 easily.” ([44:36])

9. Final Trades (Rapid-fire Picks)

[45:27–46:17]

• Bryn: Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp (OTF) — 10% yield, SpaceX equity position.
• Jim: Lockheed Martin — momentum from F-35, missile, and helicopter businesses.
• Joe: Chubb (insurance), echoes Bryn’s Blue Owl pick.

Notable Quotes & Speaker Attribution

• "More of a rental market more than an ownership market in 26." — Joe Terranova ([02:00])
• "If the Trump tariffs get overturned by the Supreme Court, that would be incredibly chaotic to undo." — Bryn Talkington ([03:32])
• "We're not going to have a recession. We will have a positive year next year. But there will be volatility." — Jim Lebenthal ([04:25])
• "Selling calls... if it gets called away, let the market take it away from you." — Bryn Talkington ([15:59])
• "Midterm election years — since WWII, if you buy on election day and hold through June 30, you always see a profit." — Joe Terranova ([17:31])
• "Earnings growth in the second half of 2026 is supposed to be better for the 493 stocks than for the MAG7." — Jim Lebenthal ([19:01])
• "Dell can be a good, mid teens to 20% type return winner if the narrative is positive." — Bryn Talkington ([22:12])
• "Three months ago, podcasts were an obvious tailwind to Spotify. Now everything’s a headwind." — Joe Terranova ([34:05])
• "This year was a good year... 2026 will also be an excellent year to take advantage of selling calls on your holdings." — Bryn Talkington ([15:59])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:15 – 04:25: Overview of current market action & setup for 2026
• 06:10 – 08:42: Deep dive into volatility, sector rotation, and hedging
• 12:01 – 13:54: The cyclical trade and sector preferences
• 20:13 – 20:25: Semiconductor pricing, AI data centers, and PC market impact
• 27:31 – 27:38: Trading precious metals & managing volatility
• 31:04 – 33:04: Rotation within energy sector
• 36:25 – 38:59: Private equity outlook for 2026
• 42:32 – 44:59: Lululemon proxy fight & Nike’s turnaround
• 45:27 – 46:17: Final trades

Tone & Style

The conversation is direct, tactical, and opinionated, with each participant anchoring arguments in data, recent market moves, and personal trading experience. There’s a heavy emphasis on adapting to volatility, not being wedded to last year’s winners, and using options strategies and portfolio rotation to navigate choppier markets ahead. The team’s banter is professional, self-reflective, and occasionally playful.

For listeners:

• The last days of 2025 may look shaky, but panelists expect opportunities—if you stay nimble and disciplined on risk.
• Expect more event-driven volatility in 2026, especially from court decisions and political flux.
• Don’t abandon market leaders but look for tactics (like trimming, options, and sector rotation) to manage risk.
• Consider private equity stocks, energy, and select tech/software as potential winners.
• Keep an eye on structural and geopolitical shifts, especially the Supreme Court's tariff rulings and their downstream effects.