The Final Stretch of 2025 12/19/25

Summary

CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: The Final Stretch of 2025 (12/19/25)
Host: Scott Wapner
Panelists: Jenny Harrington, Steve Weiss, Jim Leventhal, Josh Brown
Special Contributor: Phil LeBeau (Autonomous Vehicles segment)
Air Date: December 19, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the key themes defining the close of 2025 and looks toward the market dynamics heading into 2026. The investment committee discusses contrarian market signals, historic year-end seasonality, mega cap tech dominance, sector rotation prospects, and the impact of new innovations such as autonomous vehicles and prediction markets. The panel debates the reliability of traditional signals in the context of new inflows, technology-driven disruption, and shifting investor sentiment.

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Market Outlook & Contrarian Signals

[00:45–05:47]

• Key Discussion: Scott Wapner opens by noting bullish sentiment as stocks are green, led by bitcoin's rebound and tech performance. But Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett issues a “contrarian sell signal for risk.”
• Jenny Harrington questions the reliability of momentum, drawing on recent volatility in bitcoin and the market’s “desperation to rotate.” She views a sell signal as apt for this unstable phase.
  • Quote: “The market's desperate to rotate... It's looking for an excuse to rotate.” – Jenny Harrington [01:54]
• Weiss and Wapner debate whether to follow historical trends (S&P up 75% in final two weeks since 1928) or new inflows (“second biggest ever” into US stocks).
  • Quote: “For what I do… they’re just noise… I’m not going to sell anything.” – Steve Weiss [03:18]
• Weiss emphasizes long-term tailwinds: dovish Fed, resilient economy, and AI’s dual impacts (productivity vs. job loss).
• Quote: “The Fed’s never dealt with that. They’ve admitted it’s confusing to them. It’s definitely confusing to me. But on balance I think it’s very positive.” – Steve Weiss [05:24]

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Sentiment, Tech Dominance, and Sector Rotation

[05:47–15:11]

• Sentiment Shift: Jim Leventhal highlights a positive sentiment turn, especially in tech (Oracle as an indicator), and a likely seasonal rally.
  • Quote: “You’re likely to get this sentiment crescendoing into year end.” – Jim Leventhal [07:02]
• Josh Brown asserts the obvious trade—mega cap tech—continues to win, driven by liquidity, muscle memory, and fundamental earnings growth:
  • Quote: “The most obvious trade is the one that’s going to work… They’re just buying the biggest, most liquid stocks.” – Josh Brown [07:08]

Mega Cap Tech: Earnings and Outlook

[08:46–13:59]

• Discussion turns to 2026 predictions (Dan Ives: Tech could be +20% in 2026).
• Jim Leventhal: Tech will lead H1, but broader market (the “other 493”) could outgrow Mag 7 in H2 due to broader economic dispersion and productivity adoption.
  • Quote: "When you look at the second half of next year you will see better earnings growth from the other 493." – Jim Leventhal [10:17]
• Jenny Harrington and Steve Weiss debate the “predictability” of tech earnings, with the panel agreeing it still offers the most reliable growth in an uncertain environment.
  • Quote: “It’s the most predictable growth in what still remains an uncertain environment.” – Scott Wapner [11:11]

Nvidia: Still a Buy?

[12:42–15:11]

• Analyst Stacey Rasgon sees Nvidia as undervalued on a P/E basis.
  • Quote: “Over the last 10 years, there have only been 13 days where Nvidia stock traded cheaper relative to the stock than it is trading now.” – Scott Wapner (quoting Rasgon) [12:42]
• Josh Brown rebuffs bear cases about Nvidia; strong backlog and recurring stellar execution.
  • Quote: “Nvidia somehow just continues to find a way to defeat those bear cases with its actual results.” – Josh Brown [14:33]

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Amazon vs. Other Big Tech: Where’s the Value?

[15:11–21:02]

• Scott Wapner spots opportunity in Amazon, which has underperformed but is ranked highly by Wedbush and Citi.
• Josh Brown: Amazon is historically cheap on a P/E basis, dominant in cloud & AI, with technicals setting up for a breakout.
  • Quote: “Everyone that is not in Amazon should be giving it a second look… Do you really want to be watching from the sidelines when that happens?” – Josh Brown [15:52–17:24]
• Jenny Harrington: Amazon's valuation/growth not as compelling as Meta or Nvidia.
  • Quote: “You got Meta at 22 times, 21% earnings growth… Nvidia 24 times, 60%… Amazon 29 times, 11% – that just doesn’t look as good.” – Jenny Harrington [20:46]
• Jim Leventhal argues Amazon’s diversification makes it uniquely resilient and poised for a breakout in 2026.
  • Quote: “There is no company that is as diverse as this. If they run into a pothole somewhere, the other four pistons… are going to pull this engine through.” – Jim Leventhal [20:03]

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Nike’s Fall: Brand, Innovation, and Competition

[21:13–27:58]

• Nike falls over 10%; panel debates why such iconic brands can falter.
• Josh Brown and Jenny Harrington dissect Nike’s loss of innovation and competitive edge, especially in sneakers (On and Hoka cited as competitors).
• Brown points out the historic rarity of four consecutive down years and the lack of compelling turnaround evidence.
  • Quote: “It’s really historic, the degree to which they’ve destroyed this company. And I think it’s unfixable.” – Josh Brown [23:20]
• Jenny Harrington: It’s easier to disrupt sneakers/retail than banks or tech, so competition is fierce and barriers low.
  • Quote: “It’s easier to build a multi-billion dollar Athleisure retail sneaker brand than it is to build another bank or another app.” – Jenny Harrington [26:44]

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Autonomous Vehicles: Disruption for Uber, Lyft, Tesla

[30:00–35:46]

• Phil LeBeau reports AV activity: Waymo leads with 13 US cities, Tesla ramps in Austin, but scale remains a challenge.
  • Quote: “Waymo is clearly well ahead… but everyone said the same thing: Who’s closest? That’s really the bottom line.” – Phil LeBeau [32:46]
• Josh Brown: AVs will be a commodity business. Fleet maintenance, not the tech, will be the margin driver; returns may not be great.
  • Quote: “It’s going to be a commodity business… I think eventually the fleets will be owned by private equity.” – Josh Brown [34:22]
• Phil LeBeau echoes: convenience, not novelty, will decide winners.

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Prediction Markets & The ‘Casino Mentality’

[39:23–42:13]

• DraftKings launches “DraftKings Predictions,” signaling the prediction market boom. Columnist Gillian Tett coins this era as “Prediction Mania.”
• Weiss and Brown are skeptical: see it as largely commoditized, unlikely to reach projected $1 trillion scale, and drawing parallels to overhyped cannabis stocks.
  • Quote: “It turns out, yes, it’s a market… it’s just not that profitable to be in that business.” – Josh Brown [41:07]
  • Quote: “It’ll be easier to create a predictions market than to build a shoe company.” – Steve Weiss [41:52]

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Notable Calls & Market Wrap

[42:13–46:06]

• Caterpillar: Price target raised to $630 at Bernstein for its status as a low-volatility AI infrastructure play.
• Citigroup: Up 63% YTD, could run higher as regulatory issues are resolved.
• Mike Santoli (Senior Markets Commentator): Market has digested all catalysts; valuations are reset (especially NASDAQ 100); could "levitate a bit just because of the seasonals."

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Final Trades

[46:27–47:08]

• Josh Brown: Live Nation – bullish momentum post-Thanksgiving.
• Jim Leventhal: Disney – “strange, almost inexplicable momentum”; maybe succession soon.
• Steve Weiss: Alibaba – “very cheap… still has the best and most complete story.”
• Jenny Harrington: Amkor – “latest addition… nine times earnings, mid-teens earnings growth ahead, 6.25% yield.”

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Memorable Quotes and Moments

• On Market Rotation:
  “The market's desperate to rotate... It's looking for an excuse to rotate.”
  – Jenny Harrington [01:54]

• On Mega Cap Tech:
  “The most obvious trade is the one that’s going to work… They’re just buying the biggest, most liquid stocks.”
  – Josh Brown [07:08]

• On Amazon’s Potential:
  “There is no company that is as diverse as this. If they run into a pothole somewhere, the other four pistons… are going to pull this engine through.”
  – Jim Leventhal [20:03]

• On Nike:
  “It’s really historic, the degree to which they’ve destroyed this company. And I think it’s unfixable.”
  – Josh Brown [23:20]

• On Autonomous Vehicles:
  “It’s going to be a commodity business… I think eventually the fleets will be owned by private equity.”
  – Josh Brown [34:22]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:45] Opening & Market Setup
• [01:54] Bank of America Contrarian Sell Signal
• [05:47] Sentiment & Tech Dominance
• [08:46] Mega Cap Tech: Current Strength, 2026 Outlook
• [12:42] Nvidia Analysis
• [15:11] Amazon’s Case vs Tech Peers
• [21:13] Nike: Brand Decay & Competition
• [30:00] Autonomous Vehicles Disruption
• [39:23] Prediction Market Boom
• [42:13] Caterpillar, Citi, and “Top Calls”
• [46:27] Final Trades

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Conclusion

This episode presents a detailed, real-time cross-section of US markets at the close of 2025. It highlights conflicting signals (historic seasonality vs. contrarian indicators), the persistent dominance of mega cap tech, emerging doubts about previously unassailable brands like Nike, the practical realities of autonomous vehicles, and the frothy excitement around new asset classes like prediction markets. The conversation is candid, fast-moving, and opinionated, with each panelist offering clear rationales for their views and trades.

Transcript

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[Scott Wapner]

I'm Scott Wapner, and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thank you very much. Welcome to THE Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, the final stretch of 2025, whether stocks can stage a rally into the new year. We will, of course, debate the road ahead for your money with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour, Jenny Harrington, Steve Weiss, Jim Leventhal, Josh Brown, Check the markets were green on this Friday, have expiration today. So could be interesting into the close, which will follow obviously on closing bell a little bit later. The headlines today, I think really bitcoin's rebounding, so that's helping risk on sentiment. Tech is mostly higher. That's helping risk on sentiment. And Jenny, at the same time, bank of America's Michael Hartnett today says we have a contrarian sell signal for risk that the bull bear indicator has gone from 7.9 to 8.5, triggering a contrarian sell for risk. What do you think?

[Jenny Harrington]

I think he's probably right. So the bitcoin rebound today seems very unreliable to me. I thought yesterday was so how up until about noon or maybe a little earlier than that, it rallied up to 89,000 and then faded hard in the afternoon noon down to 85,000. So it's kind of a chicken and egg. Like I don't know which is begetting which Is it the risk on trade from bitcoin that then trickles into tech? Is it the other way around? I'm not sure, but they seem unreliable. And I think it's been an interesting and indicative past couple of weeks where the Market seems kind of desperate to rotate. So on the big down days, I've seen portfolios like what I manage, where it's value or dividend, you know, or more oriented. I've seen those really, really outperform on the big down days. And there's, I don't know how to express it other than it just seems like the market's desperate to rotate. It's looking for an excuse to rotate so that, that sell feels right to me.

[Scott Wapner]

I mean, the thing, the problem with the sell signal, Weiss, is that since 1928, the S&P has risen 75% of the time in the last two weeks of December, rising 1.3% on average. And then. Yes, okay, so this is Michael Hartnett at Bank of America, while at the same time the bank of America flow show says you just had US stocks 77.9 billion inflow, the second biggest ever.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah. So here's how I look at it. All those data points are useful, particularly when you come from credible people like Michael Hartnett. But for what I do, for what everybody else does, they're just noise. And just like a sign along the.

[Scott Wapner]

Roadway, there's always noise. You guys, people like you have to cut through it though.

[Steve Weiss]

Exactly. And so, so look, I like hearing because I'm a junkie for all the information, but what am I going to do? What am I going to do with that? I'm not going to sell anything. Particularly since he's not calling for a crash. And even if he were, I still wouldn't sell things. The probability low. So the point of it is, if that does happen and I've got some cash, and it's worse than he says because while the market is just about at its old highs, the stocks I'm involved in are still have suffered meaningful losses.

[Scott Wapner]

But do you, do you feel, I mean, when you, when you, you could, you could take a contrarian indicator or you can take history, which is on, on your side. Right. According to this data. And then you could look at the overall trend, which still feels like it's positive. And maybe that's what's most reflected in the fact that you have a near $78 billion inflow, the second biggest ever into US stocks, and you have the biggest outflow from cash since April. That tells you. So don't follow the commentary, follow the flow, follow the money.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, right, exactly. The interesting thing is for everybody says bull case, you can find people that are saying a bear case. For every person says don't buy here. Others will say, you know, buy so what I tend to look at is exactly what you say, what are the longer term trends, what are the tailwinds or headwinds. And I come up with tailwinds of a very dovish Fed head that's going to come in right in May. And I come in right now with, you know, we're close to a neutral policy and all the forecasts are for the economy to gain some strength. Now I am cautious because you see, and here's the most interesting thing in the market that I've seen in such a long time, hard press to see when it was more interesting is that you've got this battle between AI and the job losses is going to create versus AI and the productivity that it's going to create. We're seeing that already. So the Fed's never dealt with that. They've admitted it's confusion then. It's definitely confusing to me. But on balance I think it's very positive. But you got to be in absolutely the right sectors, the right stocks.

[Scott Wapner]

Farmer. Jim. Your Honor, you go out in the field, you say which way is the wind blow into this?

[Jim Leventhal]

Yeah, that's a good analogy.

[Scott Wapner]

And what, what do you think?

[Jim Leventhal]

I think we've been through a little squall here. I don't think we've been through a major storm. But you know, we're all talking right now about sentiment. And there is a sentiment shift today. It's just clear. You can see it in the NASDAQ outperforming the rsp. You can see it in Oracle and Core Weave, which I know we want to get to Oracle in just a little bit. But it's an indicator. Oracle has been the sentiment indicator for the last several weeks. Yesterday we had that Michigan Data center delay, or whatever you want to call it, announcement. The stock got mulled. Today we get the tick tock announcement and it's up. Now here's the thing about sentiment. For all of us on the desk, we're basically fundamental analysts. That's what we believe in for the long term. But we like when the sentiment turns like this. The question is will it last and whether it will last or not. I take comfort from what you started with, Scott, which is where we are in terms of seasonality last two weeks of the year. I'm not so big on calendar things, but it is a fact that when you have a strong year like we've had and you get to the final two weeks, people want and that's just what I've seen with decades of experience that you're likely to get this cement sentiment crescendoing into your end.

[Scott Wapner]

Josh, what's your read here?

[Josh Brown]

I mean, I'm not an I told you so guy and I get lots wrong too. But we had this conversation last week. I told you the most obvious trade is the one that's going to work. And it's the most frustrating for people that are always looking for an inflection point or a turning point or a contrarian, whatever. Like they're just, they're buying the biggest, most liquid stocks. And why are they doing that? Well, a, there's muscle memory and you know, you take home the date you brung to the dance. So there's some aspect of that too. If you've been trailing the index, probably a large reason why is you've been underweight some or most of these names. So it's a very obvious way to clean up your, your, your, your window dressing. And then three, this is where the earnings growth is going to be next year. Still can't believe it. But still the preponderance of the earnings growth for next year is in large cap tech. Like I'm sorry that, that's the case. But that's the case. Plus a lot of these stocks went on sale. We talked about Metta, Oracle, which is not officially mag7, but whatever. So now you got Tesla at record highs. You got Alphabet close enough. Apple's had a great year. Microsoft went green today. Nvidia back to 180 like 170 was just a bad dream and it's like all over again. Oh man, look what they're doing. Mag 7 rip into year end. Oh my God. I can't believe I fell for it again. I really thought this was going to be the time that those stocks didn't get bought. Come on, this, this to me, this was very, very obvious. We talked about it last week. It didn't take long.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, it's, I think it follows what we were talking about. If you look at the flows, you follow the money, you follow the earnings. Think Josh is absolutely right. The best earnings growth is still within the mega caps. I ain't going anywhere. People are going to still chase that as long as they think we're still in the second, third or whatever inning. Dan Ives is out with its top 10 predictions for tech in the new year. I should let you know he's going to be on closing bell with me today. We'll go through his predictions later this afternoon. But at least the headline is that tech stocks are going to be up 20% in 2026. Think about that.

[Jim Leventhal]

So Josh is right from the perspective of earnings drive price appreciation. And he's also right that next year, for the full year technology is going to be probably the leader in earnings growth. But here's an interesting side note to that. If you break next year's predictions into first half versus second half in the second half of the year it's the other stocks, it's the non Tech, the 493 really that are are projected, projected for now to outgrow earnings compared to the Mag 7. Why will that happen?

[Scott Wapner]

Why?

[Jim Leventhal]

Because of the broadening everything that we're talking about where adoption, productivity, the continued build out of data centers which flows through to industrials financials, deregulation of financials, the one big beautiful bill. There's a lot of reasons why but here the pushback, if there is pushback is that this has been the projection for the last year or so and it hasn't come to fruition. I do think though based on the reasons I just said that when you look at the second half of next year you will see better earnings growth from the other 493 and I would expect that to start to be anticipated in a broadening rally in the first quarter of next year, not the next two weeks, first quarter of next year.

[Jenny Harrington]

Yeah. Another thing when we think about tech growth, tech earnings growth for next year is the numbers are still there but as compared to 2025 they all fade. So you've got Microsoft who grew, who should should grow earnings this year at about 20%. Only 14% expected next year. You can just go down the list. Google grew earnings 30% this year.

[Scott Wapner]

I'm just saying you're going to be.

[Jenny Harrington]

They're going to be hard, they're going.

[Scott Wapner]

To say that they're going to fade.

[Jenny Harrington]

Relative to last year. So you're going to have.

[Scott Wapner]

Yes, but they're still better than relatively everything else.

[Josh Brown]

Maybe predictable.

[Steve Weiss]

It's still predictable.

[Jenny Harrington]

I'm just saying you've got two things.

[Scott Wapner]

Yes, it's still predictable. Right. Isn't that, isn't that part of what you guys do? Like it's the most predictable growth in what still remains an uncertain environment. But you go with where the best.

[Steve Weiss]

Predictability is, maybe accelerate that growth. What can accelerate the growth is that analysts are only focused focused on existing products and existing operations at Medit and all the others. But it gives them the ability to fast track new products, new revenue streams into their shares that goes from Microsoft, it goes to all of it. So I think the Earnings growth for Microsoft particular, given what's going to happen with cloud is understated as well as the upgrade now to new Windows platforms.

[Jenny Harrington]

But I want to get back to the predictability volatility, like being a really big positive because what we've seen in the last few years is actually when a company comes out and meets their earnings expectations, it's kind of a snore. I mean, look at Nvidia. Unbelievable earnings growth and the stock snores after earnings. What the market seems to like is surprises. I think there's more room for surprises in the 493 than there are in the Mag7 next year.

[Steve Weiss]

I'm okay with it with a yawn on earnings, particularly Nvidia. Nvidia agree because it's so it free advertised by the time the reports. Okay, hey, so what we all expected that. And actually it trades down typically after a quarter, not every quarter because the whisper numbers keep feeding on themselves. But you know what? I don't mind the step function. Stocks moving higher.

[Jim Leventhal]

I love how we're yawning at Nvidia up 34%.

[Scott Wapner]

Stacey Raskin is not yawning. Stacey Raskin is not yawning at Nvidia today. He believes it's set up well for the new year. He said we'd be buyers 25 times. PE may not seem particularly cheap for your ordinary stock, but this is Nvidia. Over the last 10 years, there have only been 13 days where Nvidia stock traded cheaper relative to the stocks than it is trading now. Investors buying Nvidia stock at current levels have historically done very well.

[Steve Weiss]

Here's the issue with Nvidia though. It's not an issue with the fundamentals. It's an issue with continued movement. Share price. Everybody's bullish on video. Maybe you find the isolated person wants to make a name by saying the fundamentals are going to atrophy. So where is the marginal buyer to come in and drive it much higher? And that's where. That's where I struggle. So I still own it. I've said it's not one of my larger positions. I wish it had been, but it's not. But I think it's going to be fine. It's a permanent compounder. But make no mistake about as we see, there is competition on the horizon and actually readily available right now. Competition for some.

[Scott Wapner]

Josh, what. What about Raskin the case he makes that you. You could buy it here.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah. And I listened to Dan Ives say saying much the same thing like the negative on Nvidia or the thing that gave people pause was this idea that we're going to take application specific integrated circuits like TPU's, substitute them at data centers for both training and inference, and all of a sudden there would be a more cost effective way to avoid buying Blackwells and then buying the next, you know, chip next year. I'd have to see it to believe it. So far doesn't appear to be coming true. The backlog here for Nvidia is as strong as it's ever been. And you know, I get that people were looking for a bear case on Nvidia and every one of them kept falling apart. First they said core weave is a Ponzi. Then you know, then they said, you know, the stock would be unloaded because the earnings would disappoint. And that didn't happen. So it's like one bear case after another. And Nvidia somehow just continues to find a way to defeat those bear cases with its actual results. And I wouldn't be shocked. Well, we stopped talking about this new bear case when we're in Q1. And they tell you the backlog is even healthier than ever.

[Scott Wapner]

Maybe it's just, maybe it's tired talking about Nvidia, period. Maybe we should be spending more time talking about an Amazon, for example, which year to date is not even up 4%. But you've got Scott Devitt of Wedbush today making it his top Internet pick, certainly one of them. And you have Citi listing it among their top Internet picks. Maybe it's time to focus on what's going on there. Where can you make the most upside in 26? Well, not sitting here back and forth debating Nvidia, which everybody knows is in what appears to be a sweet spot. People are quite questioning whether Amazon is.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, so let me, let me tackle Amazon very quickly and then we'll, we'll hear what the rest of the desk thinks. In my opinion, this, the chart is in no man's land. This is not technical, just purely on fundamentals. Everyone that is not an Amazon should be giving it a second look. And I know it's been an underperformer this year. It's now selling at a trailing 32 times price earnings multiple. This is one of the five most dominant companies in the entire world and a Forward P of 29 times with 11% earnings per share growth expected next year. So not cheap, but historically cheap relative to its own multiple. The last earnings report, they told you 10 to 13% in sales growth, which means they'll probably do Better than that. But that would take you somewhere between 206 billion, 213 billion for this quarter that we're in right now has not been outrageous on the capex front, although it is a high capex company. That's not new for Amazon. They've always been that way pre AI and during. And the last thing I would say is the stock has just put in three consecutive higher lows. It has not been able to break out above 238, but one day it will. And do you really want to be watching from the sidelines when that happens? I don't think so. If you've got a, if, if you've got PTSD from watching Alphabet do that, as I do from the sidelines, you probably don't want to see that repeat. This is the dominant cloud player in the world and anthropic version of AI, which Amazon is heavily tethered to, is the leading enterprise version of AI for the corporate space. And I think the stock could work.

[Scott Wapner]

Weiss, you own it too.

[Steve Weiss]

I do and I agree with that. Of course it's been a disappointing year in terms of performance, but again, step function performance doesn't bother me. Now the challenge they have is they deal with the consumer. It's a big part of their business. It funds their other investments, as does cloud.

[Scott Wapner]

Cloud is the most profit consumer's been hanging in.

[Steve Weiss]

Right. So, so I think it's a wait and see.

[Scott Wapner]

But I wonder why is it such a wait and see? Right. They've got, they got their, you know, part of anthropic. Right.

[AT&T Business Announcer]

They.

[Scott Wapner]

Want to.

[Jenny Harrington]

Okay, I can tell you, I love it. It's a wait and see because it's only 11% earnings growth next year and is trading at almost 30 times versus something like Metta, which trades at 22 times and has 21% versus Apple. No, forget Apple, sorry, that was a bad one. Versus Google. Right. Which has accelerating earnings growth after this year and trades cheaper. So I think that, I think it's a wait and see because the combination of valuation and earnings growth is less compelling than some of the other momentum market.

[Steve Weiss]

So the other stocks are always the hotter stocks. They've moved a lot. So you get on board and when you got on board with Amazon, just didn't do that. Well, I think the fundamentals will prove out. But you know, the biggest risk actually to this market to me, is open AI because open air, they're going to raise 100 billion. I don't know how they get there.

[Scott Wapner]

Typically in these $130 billion, it would take the valuation to. If they, if they did that.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah. Which you know what's typically happened in these raises, we've never seen one this size by the way, is that you have an insider who's in at a low level and continues to add and they lead the rounds and set the valuation and guess what? Then they get an incredible mark on their holding that they can go out and market to other to. To investors for a new fund there. I think that's extremely problematic.

[Jim Leventhal]

I'll put the stock stake in the ground that I think 2026Amazon is going to do what Google did this year and what Apple's done since May. All right. That stakes in the ground and I don't care about the numbers and the valuation right now. There's no company like this that has as many pistons in its engine as this. Whether it's awb, whether it's the training chips, whether it's investments in open air, whether it's the retail business, whether it's the logistics business, which we never talk about. But, but they created this from whole croth and it's basically putting FedEx and UPS in the hurt locker. What else are they going to create?

[Steve Weiss]

That's entirely true.

[Jim Leventhal]

It's true enough that. Give me a little artistic. Give me a little artistic.

[Steve Weiss]

I'll give you that.

[Jim Leventhal]

You know. And what are they going to create next? There is no company that is as diverse as this. If they run into a pothole somewhere, the other four pistons or five pistons are going to pull this engine through.

[Scott Wapner]

I mean stocks making a little nice move here. It just, it's.

[Steve Weiss]

I like it.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, you own it. I mean you didn't like it. You wouldn't. Presumably you wouldn't, you wouldn't sit next to.

[Jenny Harrington]

How about this? How about I'd rather own Nvidia than Amazon. Maybe that's why. Right. Better multiple, better earnings. I know. How about that? Yeah.

[Mike Santoli]

You don't.

[Jenny Harrington]

I don't know because I can't because we have these super strict disciplines around ourselves.

[Scott Wapner]

You still would rather own Meta than Amazon.

[Jenny Harrington]

Totally.

[Capella University Announcer]

Totally.

[Jenny Harrington]

And again, I know Jim says he doesn't care about the numbers, but like I do care about. The numbers are fine. Okay. But you got Matt at 22 times 21% earnings growth in 26, you've got Nvidia 24 times 60% earnings growth in 26, you'Ve got Amazon 29 times 11%. Like that just doesn't look as good.

[Steve Weiss]

My biggest, my Amazon position.

[Jenny Harrington]

Oh, interesting. Jimmy, I hear your argument on the diversification but that can cut both ways too, you know, I mean, sure, if we get a recession, diversity, if we.

[Jim Leventhal]

Get a recession diversity, businesses are going to come down, I'll grant you that.

[Scott Wapner]

That, I mean Amazon, because it's a, you know, takes a discretionary stock group. Let's just hit Nike because it's a drag for certain today. Yeah, I mean that's what the market is saying after, you know, China is, is a problem. Obviously stocks down 10%, there's no direct ownership on the desk. You've got on holdings which you, you continue to believe in is, you know, there's a competitor that people are citing as one of the problems with a Nike is market share being taken by the ons.

[Jim Leventhal]

I think Nike is quite a bit bigger in the scope of businesses than on is.

[Scott Wapner]

You think?

[Jim Leventhal]

No, I know, but clearly on within the footwear and slightly in the apparel business is killing it versus Nike. I don't really know what to say about Nike. I sold this two years ago. It was, was literally twice what it is now. It's not a pat on the back. It's that I really can't believe they haven't been able to fix this company. It is a brand that is up there in my opinion, with an Apple, with a JP Morgan, with any of the legends of brands, but they just, they seem to have lost their way. So has Lululemon. And I think the ultimate takeaway here, the ultimate takeaway is in retail. You have to choose who the winners are.

[Steve Weiss]

You know, brands, brands, except your VAT, have a limited lifespan. Sometimes it's three years, sometimes 10, sometimes it's 20 because then the competition comes in the market. If you walk into any retailer and there aren't a lot of them, like A Dick's Sporting Goods, for example, you'll see more and more shelf space. That was Nike with on.

[Scott Wapner]

That chart is nuts right there. Chart is nuts. Five years. Do you know if you look from late 21 to 22, I don't know. Hold on, I'll come to you in a second. But if you, if you asked people in late 21 or early 22 when the stock was up where it was, could you ever imagine a period where Nike trades as low as it is now? That's an ugly looking chart, Josh.

[Josh Brown]

This stock, since it came public in the early 80s and most, by the way, most stocks of this size have never had four consecutive down years and we're working on the fifth right now. I mean, we're almost in the books. Like it's just, it's it's really historic the degree to which they've destroyed this company. And I think that it's unfixable. I just feel like there's 10 other turnaround stories worth talking about that are have easier answers. Chipotle, Lulu, Starbucks, like all relatively as big in terms of being like great brands. Just more obvious fixes the amount of things that have gone wrong here and are as yet unaddressed. And now you've got this bigger problem where the new stars in the NBA just do not sell shoes like it. Like they're trying really hard with. With a couple of guys. But like in reality you need somebody that drives kids to want to buy the next shoe and the next shoe. And LeBron is almost 40 years old and KD is. Is almost on his way out and they don't have that next gen they thought it would be Ja Jaws got some issues off the court. Like they're just. They're missing that that next start does when Binyama sell Nikes next year. Like.

[Scott Wapner]

Right.

[Josh Brown]

I don't know what you do.

[Scott Wapner]

The other issue it seems to the biggest issue I would surmise is that, you know, they didn't have enough innovation outside of whatever was happening with Jordans and dunks.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

That if you weren't buying those because the other. The other things weren't innovating and there weren't compelling new products on and HOKA and whoever whomever else stole that market share there. So obviously the Jordan business is still strong. Strong. But if you're not buying a pair of Jordans and you're not buying a pair of dunks, are you buying the on or the Hoka instead of whatever the comparable level of the Nike is.

[Jenny Harrington]

Right.

[Scott Wapner]

And they haven't been able to get out of that. That tornado.

[Steve Weiss]

Exactly. So that whirlpool of that chart. That chart defines complacency and it's been repeated year after year that they lack the tenant technological innovation to drive the brand into a different market. Meaning different market, younger markets. So see, I don't complacency.

[Jenny Harrington]

I don't think it's complacency. I think it goes to like Business School 101 where you're forced to read Michael Porter's competitive strategy and he's like there's five forces. Right. It's rivalry, new entrant substitutes. So when we think about Jim's argument and he says this is a brand that was on par with JP Morgan and Apple, it's the not because anyone can compete in the sneaker space. Anyone can compete in the athleisure space. Those areas are easy. There's. There's very low competitive barriers.

[Steve Weiss]

It is easy.

[Jenny Harrington]

It is. Go on the realreal and see how many fashion brands, how many guys you.

[Scott Wapner]

Should ask chart and then come back.

[Jenny Harrington]

Exactly.

[Scott Wapner]

No, no, it's.

[Jenny Harrington]

It was so easy to fire up. You can't fire up another JP Morgan. You can't easily fire up Under Armour.

[Scott Wapner]

Learned how difficult it actually was to compete with Nike, especially in the whole point.

[Jenny Harrington]

And then everyone else floods it. Biore's new.

[Steve Weiss]

Lulu's new multi billion dollar brand.

[Jenny Harrington]

I'm telling you it's easier to build a multi billion dollar. It's easier to build a multi billion dollar Athleisure retail sneaker brand than it is to build another bank or another app. I don't want to but I'm going to tell you you don't want billions. Everyone who's watching can tell me this too. How. How easy is it to go change from JP Morgan to your Chase account if you're a noisy of people there over to city. It is a pain in the neck. How easy is it your cell phone? Hold on. How easy is it to get rid.

[Steve Weiss]

Of your Apple cell phone?

[Jenny Harrington]

But you know what? I want to wear Hoka's Nikes.

[Scott Wapner]

Easy last. Make it quick, Josh, as I really. I do have to take a break.

[Josh Brown]

Okay, Jenny, this is suicide. Jenny, what are you talking about?

[Jenny Harrington]

Easiest argument I made all year.

[Josh Brown]

Please, please. They told Dick's and Foot Locker we don't need you anymore. We're going direct to consumer. That created a vacuum. What did they think Footlocker was going to do? Nothing. They filled it with on guys. They filled it with. It's not easy. Nike.

[Jenny Harrington]

How many sneaker brands are there? How many cell phone brands are there? How many sneaker brands are there? How many big banks are there? That's the answer. It's easier to compete in sneakers than it is in larger retail like larger brands like Apple.

[Jim Leventhal]

I'm glad I could stir this pot today.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, we're taking a break. Coming up next, Uber and Lyft are hitting the skids this week. The AV wars, the autonomous vehicle wars are heating up. So buckle up because we're going to debate it next.

[Steve Weiss]

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[Scott Wapner]

Welcome back. Uber and Lyft both having rough weeks as the autonomous vehicle wars heat up. The stocks have dot traded well. Uber's down 7%, Lyft down 6. Lyft downgraded today to underperform at WED Bushville on AV adoption risk. The target gets cut. At the same time, Tesla is having a very big week because of autonomous news. What do you make of what's happening with these?

[Phil LeBeau]

Worse. And the post from Elon Musk, the post where he said we are now testing driverless robo taxis in Austin. It raises the question, Scott, is are we going to see a breakout in 2026 when it comes to one of the autonomous vehicle rideshare operators? And you're primarily looking at three of these here in the United States. And there are others who are potentially going to be close to doing it. You've got waymo in 13 US cities, Tesla is in 2 US cities and Zooks is in 2 US cities. That's where they're operating right now. We're not talking about future plans. There are a number of cities that are going to be added. Waymo is a good example. Next year in the United States, they plan to add 11 cities where they will be testing Waymo vehicles. And if they are successful, if they like the results that they're seeing, maybe they will be part of the Waymo network by the end of 2026. They're also testing in Tokyo and New York City Two very densely populated cities. That will be interesting to see how those tests go. As for Tesla and the Robo taxi, they're testing driverless taxis, robo taxis, I should say, in Austin. That was the post from Elon Musk, and he says that the Robo taxi fleet is doubling in Austin. But keep in mind, it's not near the 500 cars that they initially said. Remember, not too long ago, Elon Musk was like, yeah, we're going to have 500 in Austin by the end of the year. No, they're not going to be there by the end of this week. As you take a look at shares of Tesla versus Alphabet, Alphabet, the parent, obviously, of Waymo, the RoboTaxi app, downloads 2,790 per day. That's the most recent data. Came out about a week, week and a half ago. You compare that with the number of downloads for the Waymo app, specifically for the app, not talking about uber, it was $24,831. So Waymo is clearly well ahead. Scott, and one last thing. I'm glad you have Josh there today, because I've heard Josh say this a number of times about the future and how people will be calling for rideshares, autonomous rideshares, maybe. I was in California last week. Every person that I've talked with out there who had both the Waymo app as well as the Uber app, I said to them, do you specifically go to Waymo or do you go to Uber? And they almost all said the same thing. Who's closest? That's really the bottom line. And I've heard Josh say that time and again, convenience will be what ultimately matters here. And maybe price plays into it at some point when there's enough scale there. But everybody said the same thing. Who's. Who's. Who's the easiest to get to, can get to me as quick as possible.

[Scott Wapner]

Stay with me then, Phil, because I'll throw it to Josh for his response to that.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, so for me, this feels really obvious. I'm a power user of autonomous rides. I am a man about town, and I honestly don't care. As long as the car is clean, it shows up quickly and I can get in and get out and get on with my day. I understand that people land in a city like Austin and they get really excited because a robo taxi pulls up and they say, oh, I want to try that. Of course I want to try it, too. And I have, and the novelty will wear off because eventually it's going to be interchangeable human or autonomous. What's the best value? What's the fastest ride, the most convenient? And on that score, this is going to be a commodity business. Google is spending. Waymo is spending $150,000 on these Jaguars each. Do you know how many autonomous taxi rides they need to have going per day, per vehicle to ever see a profit? So they will scale. They have to. And that's actually great news because all of these services will have autonomous. The most expensive part of the ride is the driver. Take rate. Removing that from the equation worldwide is going to make ride hailing a much better service for the consumer. But just remember, you got to clean the cars. The driver doesn't own it. Somebody's got to do fleet management. You have to. Yeah, you have to. Right. If I get into the car before Phil LeBeau and I take my ice cream cone and I plant it, head down on the back seat and I get out of the car, what's his rider experience like when I'm done? Okay, so let's just all remember Messi, it's not going to be a glamorous business to own these things. I think eventually the fleets will be owned by private equity.

[Scott Wapner]

Bill, last word.

[Phil LeBeau]

Just to play off of what Josh was saying, I was talking with somebody at the hotel restaurant, and they had just come in to Palo Alto and they wanted to see what it was like to maybe get in a Waymo. They downloaded the app and they looked and then the closest Waymo to take them where they wanted to go, 22 minutes away. And they were like, I don't need that. So that speaks to. And I'm not saying that that's the experience for everybody with Waymo. And I'm not denigrating the Waymo service. What it does speak to is what Josh has talked about, its convenience and its price. And it's not sexy and it's not glamorous, but that's really what ultimately will drive this business.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Hotel restaurant, Phil. Or the hotel bar, maybe.

[Phil LeBeau]

On the expense report, it said restaurant.

[Jenny Harrington]

Good answer.

[Scott Wapner]

Great answer, Phil. That's Phil LaBeau, ladies and gentlemen. He's here all week. Let's get the headlines now with Bertha Coombs. Hi, Bertha.

[Bertha Coombs]

Hi, Scott. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer says Democrats will work with attorneys to ensure the full release of records related to Jeffrey Epstein. Today is the Justice Department's deadline to release its records on the late convicted sex offender. Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanch said the documents will be released in batches, but Democrats argue that violates the Epstein files. Transparency act, which requires all records to be made public. Today, the Trump administration is appealing a court ruling finding that IT illegally terminated $2.2 billion in grants to Harvard University. The judge also ruled in September the government can no longer cut off research funding to the Ivy League school. And Cruise began work today putting up new signage at the Kennedy Center. Just one day after the White House announced the art center's board voted to change its name to the Trump Kennedy Center. There are questions about whether the update is even legal, with critics insisting only Congress can change the building's name. I see more lawsuits in the future.

[Scott Wapner]

Scott Bertha, since we're celebrating you today at the network, please allow us to wish you well and the very best in the years ahead.

[Bertha Coombs]

Thank you so much. Much, Scott. It's been such a wonderful privilege to work with everyone here, you know, and I didn't go to grad school, but I feel like being here over the last 20 years, I've learned so much from so many smart people. It's been, it's been really a privilege for me.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, it's been our privilege and our pleasure, Bertha. Be well. It's Bertha Coombs. Coming up next, prediction markets mania. The betting boom getting bigger as a another player enters the game. Another day, another player details.

[Josh Brown]

Next.

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[Scott Wapner]

We are back. DraftKings, just the latest company now to get into the prediction markets, releasing a new app today called DraftKings Predictions. CEO Jason Robbins, by the way. Coming up next hour, it's a CNBC exclusive interview and you don't want to miss that. It was Coinbase yesterday, guys. I thought Gillian Ted of the Financial Times had an interesting column today on this very topic where she says she writes, quote, call this the casino mentality of 2025. Or to put it another way, our modern age is no longer just being shaped by the three Ps of populism, protectionism and extreme patriotism. There's another P, namely Prediction Mania as well. What do you make of what's happening in these markets? Every day it's another announcement on word that the prediction markets could hit a trillion dollars in trading volume by the end of this decade.

[Steve Weiss]

Made. Yeah. So look, when you, when you continue, new players continue to launch in the markets, the argument is generally made that that expands the market because you've got so much prevalence of these players out there. I just personally don't think the market is that big. And I think we'll see similar result as we saw with the DraftKings and the others, where it's going to be commoditized market where they, they're not going to make much money off of it and it's going to help a Robin Hood because they've got a broad offering. It's going to not really help the DraftKings that much. So that's my view on, I just.

[Scott Wapner]

I don't know, I wonder, you know.

[Steve Weiss]

I doubt the trillion dollar number is my point.

[Josh Brown]

I think I'm with Steve on that. I'm with Steve on that. This is like the cannabis stocks. It's like the cannabis stocks. Everybody was like, oh my God, they're going to legalize it. It's going to be bigger than alcohol. Those stocks, every one of them is down 95%. I don't even think there's one still training stock. The ones that are still trading. I don't, and I don't even know if there's one left that that even would qualify it for the Russell 2000. I'm not sure what was the biggest one. Tilray. It turns out, yes, it's a market. People smoke weed. It's just not that profitable to be in that business. So I am sure, there will be a lot of people taking these prediction market bets. Most of them, the more they play will lose money. This is not the same as investing in the stock market. If I buy a stock and I'm wrong in the first three weeks of buying it, it doesn't go to zero. I just, I have to hold it for longer. It's, it's a trade becomes an investment. If you're wrong on a prediction, it's zero go next.

[Steve Weiss]

Like I just don't think.

[Josh Brown]

How much of an appetite do we really think there is for that?

[Steve Weiss]

And actually I believe. Now stay still for a second. It'll be easy to create a predictions market than to build a shoe company.

[Jenny Harrington]

I agree. Because you can just do it online. You can just ask your AI programming bots just to fire it up. It's a low competitive barrier.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, it's, it's usually popular. We know that and everybody obviously is trying to get into it as we see almost every day. Up next, our top calls of the day. A big target hike for this year's best performing Dow stock. Halftime's right back. Welcome back. Calls the dead Caterpillar. The Target goes to 6:30 at Bernstein. Steve Weiss, you got this stock. That's 11% more from here. The stock has had an amazing year.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

I'm not sure if people realize how well the stock has done relative to some of the others in the Dow, almost 60%. You obviously do because you own it. 630 is the price target now.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah. Look to me the reason, one of the reasons I bought this, the major reason is that it's one of the picks and shovels plays of AI Right. As you go through the construction and all that. They're a primary benefit.

[Scott Wapner]

Literally.

[Steve Weiss]

Yes. So, so that's why I like it. It was a lower risk view and lower risk play in my view in playing any of the others like Avertive, which is just much more volatile and actually was more overvalued and directly, you know, dependent upon AI. Whereas Caterpillar. Yeah, there'll be a blip if we see it building, but I think it's fine.

[Scott Wapner]

I want to call out Citi Jimmy today too. I mean we've called it out a lot for many reasons. I mean it deserves it. Stocks had a great year. It's up 63%. Another 52 week high today.

[Jim Leventhal]

Yeah. Thanks Scott. And you know, there's specific reasons why it's done so well. It has right sized the company. It has leaned into high growth areas like investment banking, wealth management and its controlled costs. Now, just this week, we're getting a new piece of news about what I think will propel the stock even higher from here, which is getting out of trouble with the regulators. There are a number of consent orders and other regulatory hangovers that are on this stock. And just this week, the OCC Office of the Controller of the Currency lifted an amendment on one of their consent orders. Now the consent order is still in place. This is a small move, but it indicates that in the coming year, I think there will be a lot more regulatory relief based on the company's continuing efforts to do better, and that will move the stock higher.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Santoli is next. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli with his midday word. As we wrap up a week and the year is almost wrapped up, what are your thoughts?

[Mike Santoli]

Yeah, getting there, Scott. Markets trying to sort of restore order in the old way with, you know, some of the mega cap AI plays, reasserting leadership. It feels like we've gotten past a bunch of these known catalysts that could have done some damage to the trend, right, the cpi, the Fed, the jobs report and all the rest. And it didn't really. It did cause a bit of a clean out of the trade. I think that's probably why you're seeing it firm up here, here a little bit. Valuations have really reset pretty significantly, I would argue, in things like the NASDAQ 100, it's pretty much as low as it's been relative to the S&P 500 in a while. So we'll see if it can gather any momentum as opposed to just sort of, you know, getting traction here as it is around the edges. The treasury market, too, has gone through this gauntlet and not really broken out of the range. So, you know, even though yields are no longer at the recent lows, they're at these benign levels. So I think it's kind of set up for, for sort of a let's idle here for a little while. And you wouldn't necessarily want to foreclose on the chance that we're going to levitate a bit just because of the seasonals.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, yeah. All right, good stuff. I'll see you on closing bell.

[Phil LeBeau]

Mike, thank you.

[Scott Wapner]

That's Mike Santoli. We'll do finals next. I'll see you on the bell a couple hours from now with Goldman's Tony Pascarello, Dan Ives, I told you he's going to join us with his team. Top 10 Tech predictions for 2026 Kevin Gordon, Brian Levitt, Shannon's coach. So I'll see you in a couple hours. Time. Josh, what's your final trade?

[Josh Brown]

Nice rally in Live nation since Thanksgiving. I think it continues.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, Farmer Jim Disney.

[Jim Leventhal]

There's been this strange, almost inexplicable momentum over the last month. Maybe the Bob Iger succession announcement is coming soon.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, Mr. Weiss.

[Phil LeBeau]

Boba.

[Steve Weiss]

It's very cheap. There should be discount for China, but it still has the best and the most complete story there. 17 times next year.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, but you bought it, right?

[Steve Weiss]

I owned it. I added to it today.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, thanks very the thanks for the problem. Thanks for I got to do everything for this guy. Jenny, what do you got?

[Jenny Harrington]

Amkor, the latest addition to our equity income strategy. Nine times earnings mid teens earnings growth ahead six and a quarter yield.

[Scott Wapner]

All right. Good stuff. Thanks everybody.

[Phil LeBeau]

Good.

[Scott Wapner]

Good weekend all. I'll see you on the closing bell. The exchange begins right now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

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All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates andor subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer vrbo last minute deals make chasing fresh mountain powder incredibly easy. With thousands of homes close to the slopes, you can easily get epic Pow Freshies, first tracks and more. No need for months of planning. In fact, you can't even plan. Pow Pow is on its own schedule. Thankfully, somewhere in the world, it's always snowing. All you have to do is use the last minute filter on the app to book a last minute deal on a slope side private rental home. Book [e-mail].