CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: The Final Stretch of 2025 (12/19/25)
Host: Scott Wapner
Panelists: Jenny Harrington, Steve Weiss, Jim Leventhal, Josh Brown
Special Contributor: Phil LeBeau (Autonomous Vehicles segment)
Air Date: December 19, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the key themes defining the close of 2025 and looks toward the market dynamics heading into 2026. The investment committee discusses contrarian market signals, historic year-end seasonality, mega cap tech dominance, sector rotation prospects, and the impact of new innovations such as autonomous vehicles and prediction markets. The panel debates the reliability of traditional signals in the context of new inflows, technology-driven disruption, and shifting investor sentiment.

Market Outlook & Contrarian Signals

[00:45–05:47]

• Key Discussion: Scott Wapner opens by noting bullish sentiment as stocks are green, led by bitcoin's rebound and tech performance. But Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett issues a “contrarian sell signal for risk.”
• Jenny Harrington questions the reliability of momentum, drawing on recent volatility in bitcoin and the market’s “desperation to rotate.” She views a sell signal as apt for this unstable phase.
  • Quote: “The market's desperate to rotate... It's looking for an excuse to rotate.” – Jenny Harrington [01:54]
• Weiss and Wapner debate whether to follow historical trends (S&P up 75% in final two weeks since 1928) or new inflows (“second biggest ever” into US stocks).
  • Quote: “For what I do… they’re just noise… I’m not going to sell anything.” – Steve Weiss [03:18]
• Weiss emphasizes long-term tailwinds: dovish Fed, resilient economy, and AI’s dual impacts (productivity vs. job loss).
• Quote: “The Fed’s never dealt with that. They’ve admitted it’s confusing to them. It’s definitely confusing to me. But on balance I think it’s very positive.” – Steve Weiss [05:24]

Sentiment, Tech Dominance, and Sector Rotation

[05:47–15:11]

• Sentiment Shift: Jim Leventhal highlights a positive sentiment turn, especially in tech (Oracle as an indicator), and a likely seasonal rally.
  • Quote: “You’re likely to get this sentiment crescendoing into year end.” – Jim Leventhal [07:02]
• Josh Brown asserts the obvious trade—mega cap tech—continues to win, driven by liquidity, muscle memory, and fundamental earnings growth:
  • Quote: “The most obvious trade is the one that’s going to work… They’re just buying the biggest, most liquid stocks.” – Josh Brown [07:08]

Mega Cap Tech: Earnings and Outlook

[08:46–13:59]

• Discussion turns to 2026 predictions (Dan Ives: Tech could be +20% in 2026).
• Jim Leventhal: Tech will lead H1, but broader market (the “other 493”) could outgrow Mag 7 in H2 due to broader economic dispersion and productivity adoption.
  • Quote: "When you look at the second half of next year you will see better earnings growth from the other 493." – Jim Leventhal [10:17]
• Jenny Harrington and Steve Weiss debate the “predictability” of tech earnings, with the panel agreeing it still offers the most reliable growth in an uncertain environment.
  • Quote: “It’s the most predictable growth in what still remains an uncertain environment.” – Scott Wapner [11:11]

Nvidia: Still a Buy?

[12:42–15:11]

• Analyst Stacey Rasgon sees Nvidia as undervalued on a P/E basis.
  • Quote: “Over the last 10 years, there have only been 13 days where Nvidia stock traded cheaper relative to the stock than it is trading now.” – Scott Wapner (quoting Rasgon) [12:42]
• Josh Brown rebuffs bear cases about Nvidia; strong backlog and recurring stellar execution.
  • Quote: “Nvidia somehow just continues to find a way to defeat those bear cases with its actual results.” – Josh Brown [14:33]

Amazon vs. Other Big Tech: Where’s the Value?

[15:11–21:02]

• Scott Wapner spots opportunity in Amazon, which has underperformed but is ranked highly by Wedbush and Citi.
• Josh Brown: Amazon is historically cheap on a P/E basis, dominant in cloud & AI, with technicals setting up for a breakout.
  • Quote: “Everyone that is not in Amazon should be giving it a second look… Do you really want to be watching from the sidelines when that happens?” – Josh Brown [15:52–17:24]
• Jenny Harrington: Amazon's valuation/growth not as compelling as Meta or Nvidia.
  • Quote: “You got Meta at 22 times, 21% earnings growth… Nvidia 24 times, 60%… Amazon 29 times, 11% – that just doesn’t look as good.” – Jenny Harrington [20:46]
• Jim Leventhal argues Amazon’s diversification makes it uniquely resilient and poised for a breakout in 2026.
  • Quote: “There is no company that is as diverse as this. If they run into a pothole somewhere, the other four pistons… are going to pull this engine through.” – Jim Leventhal [20:03]

Nike’s Fall: Brand, Innovation, and Competition

[21:13–27:58]

• Nike falls over 10%; panel debates why such iconic brands can falter.
• Josh Brown and Jenny Harrington dissect Nike’s loss of innovation and competitive edge, especially in sneakers (On and Hoka cited as competitors).
• Brown points out the historic rarity of four consecutive down years and the lack of compelling turnaround evidence.
  • Quote: “It’s really historic, the degree to which they’ve destroyed this company. And I think it’s unfixable.” – Josh Brown [23:20]
• Jenny Harrington: It’s easier to disrupt sneakers/retail than banks or tech, so competition is fierce and barriers low.
  • Quote: “It’s easier to build a multi-billion dollar Athleisure retail sneaker brand than it is to build another bank or another app.” – Jenny Harrington [26:44]

Autonomous Vehicles: Disruption for Uber, Lyft, Tesla

[30:00–35:46]

• Phil LeBeau reports AV activity: Waymo leads with 13 US cities, Tesla ramps in Austin, but scale remains a challenge.
  • Quote: “Waymo is clearly well ahead… but everyone said the same thing: Who’s closest? That’s really the bottom line.” – Phil LeBeau [32:46]
• Josh Brown: AVs will be a commodity business. Fleet maintenance, not the tech, will be the margin driver; returns may not be great.
  • Quote: “It’s going to be a commodity business… I think eventually the fleets will be owned by private equity.” – Josh Brown [34:22]
• Phil LeBeau echoes: convenience, not novelty, will decide winners.

Prediction Markets & The ‘Casino Mentality’

[39:23–42:13]

• DraftKings launches “DraftKings Predictions,” signaling the prediction market boom. Columnist Gillian Tett coins this era as “Prediction Mania.”
• Weiss and Brown are skeptical: see it as largely commoditized, unlikely to reach projected $1 trillion scale, and drawing parallels to overhyped cannabis stocks.
  • Quote: “It turns out, yes, it’s a market… it’s just not that profitable to be in that business.” – Josh Brown [41:07]
  • Quote: “It’ll be easier to create a predictions market than to build a shoe company.” – Steve Weiss [41:52]

Notable Calls & Market Wrap

[42:13–46:06]

• Caterpillar: Price target raised to $630 at Bernstein for its status as a low-volatility AI infrastructure play.
• Citigroup: Up 63% YTD, could run higher as regulatory issues are resolved.
• Mike Santoli (Senior Markets Commentator): Market has digested all catalysts; valuations are reset (especially NASDAQ 100); could "levitate a bit just because of the seasonals."

Final Trades

[46:27–47:08]

• Josh Brown: Live Nation – bullish momentum post-Thanksgiving.
• Jim Leventhal: Disney – “strange, almost inexplicable momentum”; maybe succession soon.
• Steve Weiss: Alibaba – “very cheap… still has the best and most complete story.”
• Jenny Harrington: Amkor – “latest addition… nine times earnings, mid-teens earnings growth ahead, 6.25% yield.”

Memorable Quotes and Moments

• On Market Rotation:
  “The market's desperate to rotate... It's looking for an excuse to rotate.”
  – Jenny Harrington [01:54]

• On Mega Cap Tech:
  “The most obvious trade is the one that’s going to work… They’re just buying the biggest, most liquid stocks.”
  – Josh Brown [07:08]

• On Amazon’s Potential:
  “There is no company that is as diverse as this. If they run into a pothole somewhere, the other four pistons… are going to pull this engine through.”
  – Jim Leventhal [20:03]

• On Nike:
  “It’s really historic, the degree to which they’ve destroyed this company. And I think it’s unfixable.”
  – Josh Brown [23:20]

• On Autonomous Vehicles:
  “It’s going to be a commodity business… I think eventually the fleets will be owned by private equity.”
  – Josh Brown [34:22]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:45] Opening & Market Setup
• [01:54] Bank of America Contrarian Sell Signal
• [05:47] Sentiment & Tech Dominance
• [08:46] Mega Cap Tech: Current Strength, 2026 Outlook
• [12:42] Nvidia Analysis
• [15:11] Amazon’s Case vs Tech Peers
• [21:13] Nike: Brand Decay & Competition
• [30:00] Autonomous Vehicles Disruption
• [39:23] Prediction Market Boom
• [42:13] Caterpillar, Citi, and “Top Calls”
• [46:27] Final Trades

Conclusion

This episode presents a detailed, real-time cross-section of US markets at the close of 2025. It highlights conflicting signals (historic seasonality vs. contrarian indicators), the persistent dominance of mega cap tech, emerging doubts about previously unassailable brands like Nike, the practical realities of autonomous vehicles, and the frothy excitement around new asset classes like prediction markets. The conversation is candid, fast-moving, and opinionated, with each panelist offering clear rationales for their views and trades.