CNBC Halftime Report: The Final Stretch Setup

Date: November 11, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Panel: Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Shannon Sokosha, Josh Brown

Overview

This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report centers on the state of the ongoing market rally, exploring investor positioning for the year-end “final stretch,” the resilience of mega-cap tech stocks, the AI-driven CapEx boom, SoftBank’s strategic Nvidia sale, the breakout in biotech, shifting dynamics in consumer stocks and the secular tailwinds for defense names. The team delivers a mix of technical, fundamental, and thematic insights as they debate risks, opportunities, and sector rotation in the current landscape.

Key Discussion Points

1. Market Rally: Is the Setup Still Bullish?

[01:00–05:48]

• Scott Wapner opens on mixed markets after a period of heightened volatility—the Dow is green, S&P/Nasdaq are in the red.
• Stephanie Link outlines why the market's technical setup is "better today than it was a few weeks back," citing:
  • S&P 500 up 36% from April lows, 16% YTD
  • Economy growing at 4%, productivity growth at a bullish 3%
  • Earnings up 12.3% (historical avg: 5%), revenue up 8%
  • Seasonality: Q4 typically returns 8.5%
  • “Things are pretty good. We should be up this much. We should have rallied from the lows. But I think seasonality plays a very big important part right now... you want to be long, you want to be buying the dips.” (Stephanie Link, 03:09)
• Joe Terranova adds that end-of-year “chasing” and technology stock concentration are key. He cautions on being “too overweight” tech, urging portfolio evaluation for potential liquidity needs.
  • “The single most important exercise you could be doing with your portfolio right now is understanding: Am I maybe a little bit too overweight or too long in the direction of technology?” (Joe Terranova, 04:50)

2. Mega Cap Tech’s Resilience & The AI Trade

[05:01–10:18]

• Scott Wapner: Despite last week’s $800B mega-cap decline, $600B+ came back in one day; rotation within the “Magnificent 7."
• Shannon Sokosha: Investors repeatedly return to mega-cap AI stocks as “liquidity tilts” due to a lack of clear alternatives.
  • “Whenever we get a pullback...the challenge is, to Joe’s point, where do I want to put that liquidity? … That’s why we still have investors going back to the same till… this has been an easier trade.” (Shannon Sokosha, 06:20)
• Josh Brown: Market now differentiates between companies with clear AI CapEx strategies (Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia) and those with “murkier” stories (Meta).
  • “The market is separating the companies whose AI CapEx strategy is explicable from those where it’s a little bit murkier how this is all going to pay off.” (Josh Brown, 07:36)
  • Not just about AI: Bull market “has so many different ways to play,” citing breakouts in commodity, energy, and non-tech names.

3. SoftBank Exits Nvidia, Bets Big on OpenAI

[10:18–12:40]

• Kate Rogers reports Masa Son’s full Nvidia exit ($5.8B raised, though would have been worth $210B if held since 2019) to fund a “focused” $30B+ bet on OpenAI and a massive AI data center.
  • “He is making a huge bet on OpenAI...armed with so much capital and so much ambition, he could again shape the field and some might argue further inflate bubble.” (Kate Rogers, 12:28)
• Joe Terranova: “No problem that he’s ringing the register…he’s doing that to raise liquidity. And that goes back to my initial remarks…am I over levered? Am I extended in a position where it could be a source of liquidity?” (Joe Terranova, 12:57)
• Consensus: This move is a “massive endorsement of AI”; prompts broader investor review of AI allocation and alternatives.

4. Is It Too Late to Jump Into Mega-Cap Tech?

[14:01–15:34]

• Joe Terranova: Advises against chasing names like Nvidia or Amazon at current levels—prefer to stay in if already owned, manage risk with stops.
  • “If you’ve missed Nvidia…and it’s trading 1,9290. Really, this is the moment you’re going to get into it?...I would not chase it.” (Joe Terranova, 14:05)
• Stephanie Link: Prefers Meta and Microsoft for value after corrections; reminds there are still overlooked “AI industrials” such as Quanta, Eaton, Rockwell, Vertiv.

5. Risks & Skepticism: Michael Burry’s ‘AI Bubble’ Warning

[16:04–19:59]

• Scott Wapner brings up Michael Burry’s online warnings: hyperscalers "overstating earnings" via CapEx depreciation—potential for an AI bubble.
  • “He just calls into question where we are in this particular trade...the idea that he’s back in a big way calling out what he clearly sees as overextended stocks.” (Scott Wapner, 16:59)
• Josh Brown: Pushes back—what Burry is highlighting (CapEx accounting) is public info, not hidden deception. The paradigm shift is real: these companies are no longer “asset light” or “low debt.”
  • “For 10 years, we’ve celebrated these companies as being two things: low debt…asset light. The bulls can’t say either anymore.” (Josh Brown, 18:45)
  • Risks now include elevated leverage and a greater sensitivity to any technical breakdowns.

6. AI CapEx Boom – Debt Market Impact

[20:11–26:04]

• Leslie Picker:
  • US IG tech issuance >$211B YTD; “hyperscalers” (Oracle, Meta, Alphabet) all issued $18B+ lately.
  • UBS sees $300B more (public + private) debt coming in 2026 for AI CapEx.
  • Bond markets absorbing it for now, but BofA recommends shorting hyperscaler bonds; ratings agencies monitoring, especially Oracle.
• Shannon Sokosha/Josh Brown:
  • Credit market scrutiny may outpace equity market scrutiny.
  • Danger: Many 60/40 portfolios now have substantial risk concentrated (in both stocks & bonds) in the AI/tech buildout, especially via private credit.
  • “You think you’re diversified because you’re 60% stocks…but within the fixed income piece, you’ve bought so much product…then you realize, oh my God, I have equity risk on the mag seven and this whole air theme…” (Josh Brown, 23:26)

7. Consumer Sector Moves: Starbucks, Target, and Holiday Spend

[28:55–34:22]

• Stephanie Link buys Starbucks (down 26% from March high), confident Brian Niccol’s turnaround will echo his Chipotle success.
  • “He’s an excellent operator and I think this is a great opportunity to get in now because they saw the …first positive same store sales number this past quarter.” (Stephanie Link, 28:55)
• Sells most of Target, preferring Starbucks' management and valuation.
• Discussion: Consumer stock results are mixed—high end does well, “the low end consumer always feels the pinch…” but US consumer remains resilient.
  • “We are a nation of spenders. Whether we have the money or we take on the debt, we just do.” (Stephanie Link, 34:12)
• National Retail Federation expects $1T holiday spend, 2nd highest in 23 years.

8. Spotlight: Aerospace, Defense & "Best Stocks List"

[37:12–39:59]

• Josh Brown: Secular bull case for defense stocks—global rearmament, military spending at record highs. Top picks:
  • L3Harris: “Could play catch up to the leaders.”
  • General Dynamics (GD): “Chart is pristine...buyers coming in on every dip.”
  • RTX: “Very bullish action...bouncing off the retest, picking up momentum.”
  • “They're in a secular bull market, I don’t know what changes it. I just know buyers are coming into these stocks on every red day...” (Josh Brown, 38:59)
• Joe Terranova: Agrees with defense exposure, cautious on Exxon due to momentum loss.

9. Biotech Breakout

[39:59–43:02]

• Biotech (IBB) at highest level since Nov 2021—sector breaking a three-year underperformance streak.
• Joe Terranova: “If it gets above [the high for the year], I’m buying more...this is a five-year breakout we are talking about.” (Joe Terranova, 40:56)
  • Low rates, stable credit markets, revived M&A activity, and AI’s role in drug development all cited as tailwinds.
• Shannon Sokosha: “AI very beneficial for drug development and testing, so biotech could certainly benefit from that longer term.” (Shannon Sokosha, 42:50)

10. Mike Santoli’s Midday Word: Rotation & Year-End Positioning

[43:31–45:02]

• Market remains near ATHs; pullbacks are “orderly,” underpinned by sector rotation and “a little bit of low conviction but long type of feel.”
• “You could argue that maybe you have a slightly higher wall of worry considering how much the market is up and...so much of the bull case is about seasonality and people have to buy...as opposed to valuations...” (Mike Santoli, 44:10)

11. Final Trades

[46:18–46:57]

• Josh Brown: Phillips 66—breakout in progress
• Shannon Sokosha: Emerging markets, China (“theme: improving global growth”)
• Stephanie Link: Advance Auto Parts—analyst day upcoming, potential “spin” catalyst
• Joe Terranova: Parker Hannifin—industrial name breaking out to new ATH after a major acquisition

Memorable Quotes

• “You want to be long, you want to be buying the dips. And that’s what I was doing last week.” — Stephanie Link (03:09)
• “The single most important exercise you could be doing with your portfolio right now is understanding: Am I maybe a little bit too overweight or too long in the direction of technology?” — Joe Terranova (04:50)
• “The market is separating the companies whose AI CapEx strategy is explicable from those where it’s a little bit murkier how this is all going to pay off.” — Josh Brown (07:36)
• “He is making a huge bet on OpenAI...armed with so much capital and so much ambition, he could again shape the field and some might argue further inflate bubble.” — Kate Rogers (12:28)
• “For 10 years, we’ve celebrated these companies as being two things: low debt…asset light. The bulls can’t say either anymore.” — Josh Brown (18:45)
• “You think you’re diversified...but within the fixed income piece, you’ve bought so much product…then you realize, oh my God, I have equity risk on the mag seven and this whole air theme…” — Josh Brown (23:26)
• "We are a nation of spenders. Whether we have the money or we take on the debt, we just do." — Stephanie Link (34:12)
• "They're in a secular bull market, I don't know what changes it. I just know buyers are coming into these stocks on every red day..." — Josh Brown (38:59)
• "If it gets above there, I'm buying more...this is a five year breakout that we are talking about." — Joe Terranova (40:56)

Timestamps of Notable Segments

• Market Setup, Technicals & Seasonality: 01:00–03:37
• Mega Cap Tech Rotation & Chasing: 05:01–07:03
• SoftBank Exits Nvidia: 10:18–12:40
• AI CapEx & High-Yield Debt Risks: 20:11–26:12
• Starbucks Turnaround & Consumer: 28:55–34:22
• Defense Stocks Spotlight: 37:12–39:59
• Biotech Breakout: 39:59–43:02
• Mike Santoli’s Market Take: 43:31–45:02
• Final Trades: 46:18–46:57

Tone

• Analytical, data-driven, but conversational and pragmatic.
• Panelists candidly offer both bullish and skeptical takes, gently ribbing one another but always focused on actionable market insights.
• Emphasizes portfolio discipline, risk management, and sector/channel rotation.

For Listeners: Key Takeaways

• The broad market setup remains bullish with a strong technical and fundamental underpinning, but there’s increasing attention to concentration risks and the pace of the AI-driven rally.
• Mega-caps and AI names remain the “trades that work,” but there’s healthy debate on whether current valuations are justified and when (not if) a pullback offers better entry.
• The debt-fueled CapEx cycle in AI is a double-edged sword—enabling growth but raising questions about leverage, cyclicality, and portfolio overlap.
• Sector rotation is in play: opportunities in defense, biotech, and overlooked industrials.
• The resilient U.S. consumer supports select names, but the overall picture is nuanced with divergence across income segments.
• Portfolio discipline is key: avoid chasing, consider stops, and review exposures for hidden concentration.

End of Summary