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Halftime Report
The Future of the Rally 7/30/25
00:43:00
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate the future of the rally as the Fed decision and mega cap earnings all on deck today. Plus, Jim Lebenthal making a controversial trade selling Visa, the desk discuss whether it’s a good move. And later, we break down a Call of the Day on Crypto names. Investment Committee Disclosures
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- [00:01]
Scott Wapner
Fidelity Trading Dashboard brings live data, news and charts into one screen so you can build and place trades.
- [00:07]
Steve Kovach
Better start for free@fidelity.com Trading Dashboard Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC Member nyse SIPC.
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Julia Boorstin
On WhatsApp, no one can see or hear your personal messages. Whether it's a voice call message or sending a password to WhatsApp, it's all just this. So whether you're sharing the streaming password in the family chat or trading those late night voice messages that could basically become a podcast, your personal messages stay between you, your friends and your family. No one else, not even us. WhatsApp message privately.
- [00:48]
Scott Wapner
I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour. The future of the rally is some major events loom especially large. The Fed decision and mega cap earnings all on tap today. We'll trade all of that with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour today, Joe Terranova, Steve Weiss, Jim labenthal and Brent talking to we are right now green across the board as we anticipate all of that. While the Dow is unchanged and the Dow stalking a new high. The S and P and NASDAQ have been there. The Dow needs needs to cross 45,073 to get there. We'll see what happens. The big debate of course is whether this is the pause that refreshes or if the market needs to consolidate a little bit more before going higher. Joe, speaking of resting exhaustion pause words that you've used, the S and P has now gone 24 trading days without a 1% move in either direction. That is the longest stretch since October of 2024. Today BCA research upgrades equ to overweight and they put a 6950 target for year end address all of that.
- [02:09]
Jim Labenthal
Uh oh, the expression is you never sell a quiet market. And that's exactly what we have right now. What else plays against the thesis that we're kind of running in place and that you probably don't want to be aggressively adding to existing positions right here is that when you look at the Mag 7 and obviously I am studying the Mag 7 and other large cap us quite extensively right now as we move toward the end of the month in the rebalance, the Mag 7, yes, the Mag 7 is in a position reflecting momentum as strong as I have seen it since the fall of 2023. So if I take each individual MAG7 name and say, okay, let's assign a momentum score to it right now. All, all seven Mag 7 names have a positive momentum score. Apple is probably the weakest, but we have not seen that broad momentum participation from the MAG7 since the fall of 2023.
- [03:15]
Scott Wapner
But they have the kind of score that you are inferring. So they're going to remain in the etf barring a surprise. You can't necessarily say that.
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Jim Labenthal
Well, let's wait a second. Amazon is not in there right now. Alphabet not in there.
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Joe Terranova
Right.
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Jim Labenthal
Microsoft not in there right now. So we hold four of the MAG seven in the ETF right now. And all I'm saying is we look at other factors besides momentum. We're also going to look at the quality nature and in certain instances you are seeing revenue deceleration. But the momentum, the score on the momentum for these Max 7s is pretty darn strong.
- [03:52]
Scott Wapner
We'll read between the lines until we get more information on that. And we'll get to the conversation about the MAG7s because Meta, Microsoft today, Apple, Amazon tomorrow. But we have bigger things to discuss before we get to that. Weiss, the pause that refreshes or is some consolidation in the cards again. I mean, when you've gone 24 days, almost a month without a 1% move in either direction, that sort of gives you an idea that there's been a resting period in place for this market. What breaks it?
- [04:27]
Steve Weiss
Well, look, I think it's necessary have the perspective of what happened up to that point. And up to that point, early on, go to April, we had a major decline and that was a series of 1% corrections in a row. Bang, bang, bang. So now we're sort of like, you got to take a look at the average over the year or six months, pick a time frame and I'd say we're right in schedule. So in terms of 1% corrections, we've had them. Now we're digging out and going higher.
- [04:57]
Scott Wapner
Look, the.
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Steve Weiss
I don't really buy into the phrase the market is tired markets inanimate object. It's without catalysts right now. So you need a catalyst to break it one way or the other. That catalyst could be, I assign a 10% probability to the Fed cutting today. Actually I would have a 50% probability, but. And I think it's actually unlikely 10% is just to have some probability if, if we didn't see the, the assault on the Fed. The Fed, the Fed should cut. But right now they have to protect their independence so can count out to that. However, I do believe you'll see more than one dissent, which is very rare. And that September or you know, you know, sometime next few months, next two meetings, you will see the Fed cut.
- [05:45]
Scott Wapner
Well, to your point, Nick Timoros at the Journal today says you could have dissents potentially by Waller and Bowman together, which would mark the first time in three decades that more than one Fed governor dissented at a policy meeting. That is sort of what's at stake today. You know, let's just bring in Steve Liesman now, our senior economics correspondent. He's going to help us set the table for this decision today. So we have that as part of the backdrop. Is there a dissent and does a dissent carry the stature, if you will, of two govs which hasn't happened in some 30 years. The president once again on Truth Social, Truth Social points out the GDP print today which was 3%. Steve, way better than expected. He said too late, referring to Powell must now lower the rate. No inflation, let people buy and refinance their homes. Weiss says 10% probability that Powell and company cut. What's, what do you say.
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Steve Liesman
As the limit goes to zero? I don't think the Fed is cutting today. I think the, the dissents by the governors matter. I think there's a case to be made for cutting. But, but Scott, can I just for a second here, I know the market and you guys around the table are so over tariffs, but I don't think the Fed is, I don't think economists are. There was a report out this morning from Goldman Sachs and you can write these numbers down. So far they have calculated, they're looking at the treasury data and the Customs data, a 7.4 percentage point increase in average tariffs. They believe it's going to 14%, which is to say that they are calculating. We've only seen about half of the full economic tariff impact that's coming. They think it's ultimately going to a 17% increase in tariffs. That's one of the things I think the Fed is looking very carefully at that is staying their hand. This may be that old song, Scott, see you in September. But it could be October or November before the Fed feels comfortable. You get two more months of inflation data. But this tariff stuff is still just working its way through the economy. I know everybody wants to move on, but that's just the simple case.
- [07:58]
Scott Wapner
That's fair. Wolf. Research today says there's growing risk of the Fed holding steady for the whole year. Steve, for the rest of 25. I don't think the market necessarily has that on its bingo card. You also have the wild card, if I could call it such, of Jackson Hole, where Jackson Hole usually is not a non event and it may carry a special bit of weight this time around. Just given the President leaning on Powell, the idea that, you know, Powell wants to cut because he said as much, he's only paralyzed, so to speak, by the fact of the tariffs and the data that you said suggests that the worst is yet to come. We just don't know.
- [08:42]
Steve Liesman
Well, I can just tell you, Scott, I used to do a whole lot more fly fishing in Jackson Hole than I've done the last say 15 years or so. It's been a lot, a lot more work than it used to be and don't cry for me. But in any event, I think that's right. Powell does want to cut. I think the board wants to cut. The committee has on average two rate cuts penciled in. They'd like to get there. But remember, it's not only the data. The Fed and Powell have said this several times. They feel it's their responsibility in what they say and what they do to make sure there isn't more impact from tariff inflation. So what they say and what they do will have an impact on that. They've done a pretty good job of sort of keeping saving Trump from himself in the sense that, that you have not had a big surge in inflation expectations. You can't at once say, hey, inflation's under control and the Fed's doing a bad job because those things is a huge disconnect. If indeed the Fed is doing a bad job, you'd have inflation out of control.
- [09:42]
Steve Weiss
Steve, don't, don't you think though that or what do you think about this? There's the narrative out there that inflation's a one time event. Prior to these trade deals, the Fed really didn't have clarity on what tariffs would be now at least India aside and details of the current tariff deals somewhat unknown. But we know at this point that 15% is sort of like the base rate and fact the final rate. So the narrative that it's not really going to be long term inflation, it's one and done on inflation and now we have clarity, gives the Fed the ability to then opine on to, on, on easing and perhaps do it in September.
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Steve Liesman
So I think there's definitely an argument about that. But ask yourself, Steve, the following question. Why are tariffs a one time price increase? Is it because they're simply on their own a One time price increase or is Fed policy and Fed job owning part of what keeps it that way?
- [10:44]
Scott Wapner
Supply.
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Steve Liesman
That's really the key here. Remember when we had the supply disruptions during the pandemic, there were stuff that went up that was supply constrained and stuff that went up anyway because it was an excuse by retailers and manufacturers to raise prices. The Fed wants to see that. So you've had this interesting effect. You have had tariff inflation in the CPI and the other indices. You've had disinflation in other places. That could be because, Steve, the Fed is restrictive. Look, I think they want to get back to neutral. That's a key. And by the way, I have just a quick chart I want to show you which is showing how rare these dissents are. There's been only one governor dissent during the Powell era. If you go back to 2018 when he took over, presidents more likely to dissent and dissent for tighter reasons. But go back all the way to 1936, which our data do, and you can see governors dissenting a little more common and dissenting for easier policy. A lot of that during Volcker, a lot of that during the 60s when governors were more opposed to tighter policy and they ended up being wrong.
- [11:50]
Scott Wapner
Well, we'll see what happens today more so what Powell says and how he answers questions from the reporters gathered in the room like yourself. And we'll look forward to seeing you there, Steve, as always. Steve Liesman, our senior economics correspondent. Brynn, they could cut 25, 25 basis points is going to make a difference? I mean, I guess it would to the president. They can give a nod to the pres. They can give a nod even to the data. Right. Data is strong. Like The President said, 3% GDP, labor markets still good. Inflation is not running away again. Maybe it's elevated a little bit here and there. I don't know. You'll get that today. Do you even care what happens today?
- [12:30]
Bryn Talkington
Well, I think doesn't, I don't think they're cutting today. That just doesn't even seem to be on the table. I think what's going to get spicy is after the, after the, after the meeting what President Trump says about that meeting. And so I think what's where we're Powell's in a, I think a really precarious spot. Is that. So inflation, let's say, is around two and a half to three.
- [12:49]
Scott Wapner
Right.
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Bryn Talkington
The numbers are jumping around a bit. I definitely think it's going to take a couple of quarters to. You actually see the impact of tariffs because if you Go into the CPI data that we just got for June, like window coverings were up like 5% month over month. You have these like items beef has been up and so are those tariff related, etc. We're going to need a few months. But if you go back to Trump's point, it's like Jay Powell, Chairman Powell cut rates by 50 basis points in September of last year. Like why 50? And so to me when I look at it pragmatically, you have the 10 year at what, 435. You have fed funds at 450. Inflation's two and a half to 3. It's like it seems tight right here. And so I think where the Chairman Powell is like we don't want to cut 25 and then stop and then go up and down. They want to start getting into a glide path one way or another, hopefully down. And so that's why I think you're definitely not going to see it. But when you just look at where fed funds in the 10 year is versus inflation, even if you go up to 3, it's like there's room to start cutting. And so they know that unfortunately will make. The mistake the Fed always makes is like they're too late because they wait for the data just to be right in front of them.
- [14:02]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, no, they know. Jimmy, we haven't heard from you yet. Joe's just, just gesticulating over here and doing this, that thing and we're going to move on in a minute. So Jimmy, I'll keep my comments tight. You know what I'm going to do? I'm going to move the conversation forward to take the Terra Nova variable off the table. That means we're going to, we're going to move on because you, because if today's a non event, what is, what is definitely an event is Microsoft and Meta.
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Joe Terranova
I agree.
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Scott Wapner
And you own Microsoft now. Alphabet's reaction post earnings wasn't that great, which led Joe in the first place to suggest the market's exhausted. Here was a very good earnings report. Here was not a very good earnings report reaction. Do we get a better reaction from the stocks today if their reports are good?
- [14:48]
Joe Terranova
I don't think so. I think Joe and I are in agreement on this and maybe Steve too, that this is a market that's kind of overbought and that's not a terrible thing, that's not a fatal thing. It's just how much more buying can go on. Joe and I disagree about what the Alphabet price response meant, but let's not do that right now. I think Microsoft will show a very good report. I think they will show enhanced capex. Probably raise it to keep track with what Alphabet did. I think you have to, you know, you can't fall behind in this race. But this is a market that's heading into the dog days of summer. It is ignoring at this point it seems to me it's ignoring all news. Okay, we had the end of India thing. Steve mentioned it. You know, that's really not pricing into the market at all. The Fed seems a fait accompli. Who knows what they'll say. But my goodness, I mean just cutting 25 basis points and throw the dogs off your trail. Here's my point. I don't think that there's anything that's going to move this market higher right now. And with buyer exhaustion I think it just trickles off over the next few weeks. Not a disaster. Down 5 to 7%. Joe, you looked askance at me on Monday when I said that. But that happens. That's not a big deal. That's a consolidation.
- [15:57]
Scott Wapner
Kovac is joining us now for what Microsoft has to prove today so that the stock has a better reaction than Alphabet Post earnings.
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Steve Kovach
Yes, and Jim said it right. Not only should, will or should we expect capex to go up at Microsoft, it's definitely going to go up. Microsoft has already said as much. Keep in mind we're coming off their fiscal year of 2025. They're in 2026 right now and they have to give us new numbers today even if it's just for the current quarter we're in and we'll get be able to kind of extrapolate that, multiply it by 4 and get a general idea over the next 365 days what we can see as far as capex spending from Microsoft, it's going to be higher but at a slower growth rate they said, than what we've seen before. And then also in the AI front you got to look within that Azure number, the Azure growth rate and how much of that Microsoft is attributing to artificial intelligence that has been increasing quarter over quarter in general and then whether or not that Azure growth can keep up and then some bonus stuff on the AI front if they're spending so much on Capex and all this investment that we keep hearing about, where is the payoff? So any color they can provide which they haven't yet around Copilot how well that is selling what the Azure hold numbers look like there as well. Those are going to be Some maybe some surprise numbers we should be looking out for as well just to justify all the spending that they're going to continue to do.
- [17:23]
Scott Wapner
SCOTT yeah, we'll look forward to that. Steve, thank you for the setup there with Microsoft. That's Steve Kovach. Joe so what do you need to see today so that this does not have the reaction that you flagged for Alphabet, which was concerning to you?
- [17:35]
Jim Labenthal
I would expect Microsoft, Microsoft to be very strong tonight. I think you're going to hear the cloud numbers be be delivering 14% revenue growth. I think that's good. I think you're going to hear about the relationship that they have, which is a distinctive advantage over others with open I I think the AI assistant co pilot, you're going to hear how they're advancing that they're spending, they're going to increase the spending for sure. They're probably going to come in Jimmy, somewhere around what, 18 billion on the quarter that's I think 30% higher from where it was one year ago. But with that spending, they're getting the result of seeing an increase in revenue. They're getting the result of being able to have the penetration and the deliverability of AI in various different formats. And I think that right now puts Microsoft in one of the better AI positions.
- [18:22]
Joe Terranova
Why are I'm sorry, I got to go back. Why are you so down on the Alphabet price response? Great. It wasn't up 5%, but it's just been trickling higher and higher. Why would that be?
- [18:32]
Scott Wapner
What's it up since earnings?
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Joe Terranova
I don't about, about 4% in a week. What was, hang on, hang on a second.
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Steve Weiss
What was it up going into earnings?
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Scott Wapner
It was up 20% into the sprints over the last three months.
- [18:42]
Joe Terranova
Why do we, and this applies to Microsoft and it's an honest question. Why do we have to have an up 5% on a multi trillion dollar company? I would submit to you that that's actually unhealthy, that that would be a sign of froth. I mean if the stock does a great report and goes up 1, 2% and adds.
- [18:57]
Scott Wapner
But this wasn't just any stock, okay, you could say on its face, well, it was up 20% into the print, which is great under any time frame whatever, not necessarily relative to the other MAG7 stocks into their own prints where the numbers were much larger. This also came into an earnings period where there were serious questions about the bread and butter business of search.
- [19:19]
Joe Terranova
And I don't think those answers are fully questionable.
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Scott Wapner
They did beat, albeit by like 2% but they did beat on the most questioned metric that they had to report on.
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Joe Terranova
Yep.
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Scott Wapner
And it was a rather anemic stock reaction amid all of those questions.
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Steve Weiss
But they haven't removed the overhang of search. People that don't want to own Alphabet don't want to own it because of search, don't want to own it because of a of what we're seeing in the antitrust issues that are going on. So given the fact that it was up 20%, given the fact that continued to move and didn't sell off, which is unusual. Right. Because when a stock moves that much.
- [19:57]
Scott Wapner
Without really a compelling component, they missed the search number. Market came in saying, all right, it had a nice rebound from the quote, unquote Eddy Q. Sell off. Now let's see what happens with the number. If it was going to show up search, it was going to be in that quarter. That's what Gene Munster and others had suggested. It did not. They beat and the stock's reaction wasn't horrible, but it wasn't maybe what you're used to. Now we turn to Metta and what they have to prove so they don't have the same kind of reaction. Julia Borson joins us now to look at that. Hey, Jules.
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Julia Boorstin
Hey, Scott. That's right. With Meta stock up by half in the past year and 86% of analysts rating it a buy, expectations are high despite the company's potentially slowing revenue growth. Now, revenue growth is projected to slow to 15% in the quarter from 16% in the prior quarter. But the company's spending on AI could be the big headline this morning. Zuckerberg writing about his new focus on personal super intelligence, driving the investment of hundreds of billions of dollars into compute and quote, the most elite and talent dense team in the industry. Now this comes on the heels of the company investing $14 billion into scale AI. Bank of America just writing that Met as generative investments have improved its ad business and quote, further confirmation that AI is contributing to revenue acceleration at a giant company using AI could in my view, the analyst writes, trigger a global rally in all things AI. So now, Scott, we're going to be watching to see if matter changes its expense guidance back to you.
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Scott Wapner
All right, Julia, thank you for that setup. That's Julia Boorstin out Los Angeles for us. Weiss, one comment on matter. What do you think?
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Steve Weiss
It's a winner. I'm staying with it. Zuckerberg is doing a great job. And why would I sell? I think personally that the narrative about they're spending so much on AI is old, tired and it's not going to impact the stock.
- [21:54]
Scott Wapner
Well, we've focused on the chips as a result of the big numbers like the one that Kovac and Julie Borson just, just showed us because what they're spending the SMH hit a record high ninth positive week in the last ten. Nvidia's pacing for its tenth straight weekly gain. Brin, that's probably the second place we're going to look after the numbers come out tonight after you see what Microsoft and Meta deliver, you're going to take a peek and you're going to say, okay, what's Nvidia doing? Because 80 billion plus of what these companies are spending or thereabout is funneling to that company.
- [22:29]
Bryn Talkington
Yeah. And then you have, I mean also with Nvidia you have China is now arguably a positive now for Nvidia. And then these companies, I've said this quarter after quarter, I think for the last like year and a half, these companies are giving you a sneak peek and what Nvidia is going to do because they still have pole positions. And so I think that Nvidia, I think Broadcom, there's a few other ones that are really in that great spot of growth. And so I just think that they are spending money on these chips, on these GPUs. But I do think with with Metta, with Microsoft, with all of this spend, I think we will look back in a few years and they won't have actually spent all of this money because what I continue to hear locally as well as you know when you read about it, is there's an electricity shortage. And so I'm going to question in a year or so if we're going to be able to stand up these data centers at this rate because of the issues around electricity and power around that.
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Scott Wapner
So Qorvo beat. Speaking of chip stocks that have done well, Corvo B Terradyne is up. There's no ownership but they did have a Q2B. Qualcomm reports after the bell tonight. Speaking of sleepy things within this market slumbering.
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Joe Terranova
Yeah, okay, I like that. It is kind of sleepily going higher but not meaningfully higher. Look, I am waiting, waiting.
- [23:49]
Scott Wapner
Look at a year to date on this too, folks, please, not the, not the intraday.
- [23:52]
Joe Terranova
I am waiting for the quarter in which they say we're going to do an accelerated share repurchase. We're going to buy back 20 billion. I don't know that it's this quarter. I do know that it's overdue. This is a company with effectively no debt on its balance sheet. It makes tuck in acquisitions that bought Alpha where that was last month or at least announced it last month. But it doesn't seem to be in the market for some huge overpriced, acquisitive, you know, mindset. And I'm glad about that. But they're generating a lot of cash flow. They're going to show the continued diversification away from smartphones and into automotive and Internet of things. They generate a lot of free cash flow. Fellas, let's just give it back. Buy the shares while they're cheap. It's 13 times earnings, about a 2 1/2% dividend yield. Buy back the shares.
- [24:36]
Scott Wapner
Joe's almost gesticulating again.
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Jim Labenthal
I mean, I have so many things.
- [24:39]
Scott Wapner
I'm going to give him the floor this time.
- [24:42]
Jim Labenthal
I mean, you know, he give it to. He says he's not going to talk about Alphabet. Then he brings up Alphabet. So look, as it relates to the semiconductor industry, there is no industry in the s and P500 that is reporting earnings right now where the expectations are as strong and they're warranted. You're talking about overall for the industry, potential for 30% revenue growth. You can't find that anywhere else. In terms of positioning, you come into the quarter relatively light versus where we were on prior quarters. You're going to rebuild that. And then again, this industry benefited like none other with the relief that we have seen when it comes towards tariffs.
- [25:22]
Steve Weiss
You know, it's always so interesting to me that when you talk about semis, we talk about AI Taiwan. Semi is, is not in the headline yet. They are the most involved in, in AI chips because they make them for all the companies you just mentioned. So to me it's still an undervalued stock despite the move that it's.
- [25:44]
Scott Wapner
You're probably right about that. It doesn't get probably the love that it, that it does deserve.
- [25:50]
Steve Weiss
I give it enough love, Scott.
- [25:51]
Scott Wapner
You definitely do. But I don't think there's much broad ownership. I don't think there's broad ownership on the show.
- [25:58]
Steve Weiss
No, there is.
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Jim Labenthal
I think I'm the only one trillion dollar company up 20 plus percent year to year.
- [26:03]
Scott Wapner
So what's the problem? Why is Weiss the only person who owns it? Is he really that brilliant?
- [26:09]
Steve Weiss
Well, yes, absolutely, yes. I've owned it for a long time, made a lot of money. People just, they just go with the flow. They go with the crowd. Nvidia. I love Nvidia.
- [26:19]
Scott Wapner
We'll take a break. Looks like we could have an IPO getting set to open up two here on the floor. Ambic. We'll keep an eye on that in case you hear a big bell and a lot of cheering. That's what that is. Oh boy. And and then coming up, what our own Jim Cramer said about a certain stocks quarter Jim Leventhal is definitely going to want to hear. He's going to hear it whether he wants to or not and he's going to have to react to it whether he wants to or not. Tell you what that is next.
- [26:47]
Julia Boorstin
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- [28:00]
Scott Wapner
Learn more@myfulare.org with leading networking and connectivity, advanced cybersecurity and expert partnership, Comcast business.
- [28:09]
Joe Terranova
Helps turn today's enterprises into engines of modern business.
- [28:12]
Scott Wapner
Powering the engine of modern business powering possibilities.
- [28:16]
Jim Labenthal
Restrictions apply.
- [28:20]
Scott Wapner
The people who have sold Visa tend.
- [28:22]
Jim Labenthal
To be really stupid.
- [28:23]
Scott Wapner
Now I don't know how they did in their SATs or what schools they got into. It doesn't really matter. But I do think that this is another great quarter for Visa. Well, that was Jim Cramer earlier this morning after the report. Stock is up 1%.
- [28:42]
Jim Labenthal
When you go to school.
- [28:43]
Scott Wapner
We owe Jim Lebenthal. You sold Visa?
- [28:48]
Joe Terranova
Yeah.
- [28:48]
Scott Wapner
You didn't just Trim? Visa. You sold Visa?
- [28:50]
Joe Terranova
Yeah.
- [28:51]
Scott Wapner
Why'd you do that?
- [28:54]
Joe Terranova
Let me just start by saying there's no Forever stock. Okay. Doesn't matter whether it's Visa, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway. There is no Forever sleeveless.
- [29:03]
Scott Wapner
That's fine. Go ahead.
- [29:03]
Joe Terranova
All right, give me the floor.
- [29:05]
Scott Wapner
He gets the floor.
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Joe Terranova
Listen, I'm not sure how much grief I should take for a stock that's done as well as this has done for as long as it's done. I'm selling high. I mean, that's all I'm doing here. You know, I'll just finish real quick. You're going to come back with plenty.
- [29:18]
Scott Wapner
I have some stuff.
- [29:19]
Joe Terranova
Yes. That you know. I am raising cash. I now raised cash with this sale in my equity accounts to 7%. That's the comfort level where I feel I'm not timing the markets. But I'm just waiting to put that back to work. You got to sell high to buy low. Look, it's a great company. I think it's fairly priced. I made my decision to move on because there is no Forever stock.
- [29:40]
Scott Wapner
Understood?
- [29:41]
Joe Terranova
I don't remember my SATs. I don't.
- [29:43]
Scott Wapner
That's fine.
- [29:43]
Joe Terranova
And I think Jimmy's hilarious.
- [29:44]
Scott Wapner
But the difficulty in all of this now, it's very easy obviously to say, look, I had the stock for a long time. We just showed the stock chart. So obviously you made a lot of money in the name. The stock is not even back at its high right. That's number one. You're selling it into what looks to be. And what I think Kramer's alluding to is an uptrend in a name that continues to deliver. This is like Lieutenant Lebenthal.
- [30:14]
Joe Terranova
Oh, man.
- [30:15]
Scott Wapner
The submarine has done. It's cruising along.
- [30:18]
Joe Terranova
How long did you think.
- [30:21]
Scott Wapner
I just came up with this? Just came up with this. It's heading into a little bit of, you know, maybe enemy territory. A little bit. Maybe there's some questions about the economy, the consumer, what have you. But you're still on the USS Lebenthal.
- [30:34]
Joe Terranova
Like I consider going of that. You did not. Not the naval analogy. I mean, there's. That's a little.
- [30:40]
Scott Wapner
That's why I'm here.
- [30:40]
Joe Terranova
Tough to work with, but okay. I mean, look, no, I consider everything that you said and I understand why Jimmy's saying what he's saying. Respect for it. Look, Joe said earlier, don't treat a quiet market. I granted I'm violating all these rules. I want to raise some cash right now. I am now done raising cash. I.
- [30:58]
Scott Wapner
Raising cash. You're not Selling anything else.
- [30:59]
Joe Terranova
That is true.
- [31:00]
Scott Wapner
Anything else.
- [31:01]
Joe Terranova
That is correct.
- [31:01]
Scott Wapner
You're just nervous that you're going to get a 5% correct.
- [31:04]
Joe Terranova
No, not nervous. I'm excited for it. I'm excited for it.
- [31:07]
Scott Wapner
Excited to sell a great name like that.
- [31:10]
Joe Terranova
Give me some price dislocation. I mean, look, it's not, I. Look, I made great money on it. I got to tell you the truth. I, I just, it was always to me.
- [31:20]
Scott Wapner
Look, if I had time, if I had time, I would tell Kramer to come down from his office. Come down from your office, and I would tell him to come on the set.
- [31:28]
Joe Terranova
But what are we going to do? He's going to, to say the same thing I'm going to say.
- [31:32]
Scott Wapner
Well, I know, but it'd be even better if he was here in person to lay into you a little bit more.
- [31:37]
Joe Terranova
I just need to remind you, Jimmy, I have mad respect for Philadelphia with the school in Philadelphia. And I was recruited into the Navy out of the vaunted Philadelphia Naval recruiting district.
- [31:48]
Jim Labenthal
Everyone has a different process for exiting positions. I respect yours if you're more rules based or if you're looking at things like profit margin and revenue growth. This company, it's staggering. I'm looking at it right now. Since 2016, they've only had annualized revenue growth, growth below 10% once. That was during the pandemic. They have a profit margin of 72%. That's a cash cow. That's an unbelievable company. It's up 12% here.
- [32:18]
Joe Terranova
It's up 35% in a year.
- [32:20]
Scott Wapner
I want to get Brin's take too because we haven't heard from Kramer.
- [32:22]
Steve Weiss
Doesn't have the perspective of him. He just sees more opportunity, I'm guessing the rest of his portfolio than Visa. Otherwise you would sold something else. Right?
- [32:29]
Scott Wapner
Hold on. Brent Brin owns Visa too. What do you think, Brent?
- [32:34]
Bryn Talkington
I think. Well, first of all, I'm, I'm in Camp Leventhal on his process. So you should not fall in love with stocks forever. That being said, there are very, very, very few companies that have these kind of 65% operating margins. I think Joe is saying 70% profit margins. There's a duopoly, MasterCard and Visa, their Visas and have investing heavily into mining into the crypto universe and the blockchain. Excuse me. And so I think there's companies like Costco, there's Visa, and there's just a few others that you can actually hold very long term because of the consistency of the revenue and the high margins. So it wouldn't be on my list to sell to raise cash. But Jim, to his point, if he can find another company, we'll see a year from now. But I would never question Jim's buy or sell reasons because he's a great.
- [33:27]
Scott Wapner
Investor, man, just like, oh, man. Thanks, friends.
- [33:32]
Joe Terranova
Giving me some breathing room on the desk. Thank you, Brian. Thanks.
- [33:35]
Scott Wapner
I should have stayed with Weiss.
- [33:36]
Steve Liesman
You should have.
- [33:37]
Steve Weiss
I'm just not that nice as we know.
- [33:39]
Scott Wapner
All right. Let's get the headlines now with Silvana. And now. Hi, Silvana.
- [33:42]
Julia Boorstin
Scott, good afternoon. White House envoy Steve Witkoff is reportedly traveling to Israel today to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Now that's according to Axios, which reports Witkoff may also travel to Gaza and visit aid centers there. The visit comes a day after President Trump acknowledged there is, quote, real starvation in the territory. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has reportedly been privately discuss running for office next year in his home state of Tennessee. That's according to NBC News, which spoke to two people who've been in contact with Hegseth directly about it. If Hegseth were to run for office, he would have to resign as the Defense Department bars civilian employees for running for office. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell wrote in a statement that Hegset's focus remains solely on serving under President Trump. And YouTube will start using AI age verification to determine which users are under 18 starting August 18th. The platform says it will detect underage users based on their activity and the age of their account, allowing it to automatically apply restrictions. Scott, I'll send it back to you.
- [34:53]
Scott Wapner
All right, Silvana, thanks so much for that, Silvana. Now coming up, the setup on Robinhood ahead of earnings in over time. That stock's more than doubled this year. There's a big call today as well around crypto equities. We'll discuss, we'll trade it and we'll get Brin State next.
- [35:08]
Julia Boorstin
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- [35:39]
Jim Labenthal
A key July jobs report is trade uncertainty impacting the economy and the labor market. What the data could mean for future rate cuts. Employment numbers and analysis Squawk Box Friday, 8:30 Eastern and streaming on CNBC.
- [35:55]
Scott Wapner
All right, welcome back. How about this? BCA research today talks about crypto equities. It's our call of the day. They said use pullbacks to build long term positions and they mentioned names like Circle, Coinbase, Etoro and Brin's Robinhood. So Bryn, you own Robinhood. They're going to report today after the bell that Stock is up 422% in a year, which means Jim Leventhal would have sold it a long time ago, obviously. What about you? What do you do?
- [36:24]
Bryn Talkington
Yeah, so I started buying the stock I guess in just maybe December of last year. The Internet can tell me around in the 40s and I think what's exciting is that Vlad and team have just continued to just, I think clean everyone's clocks. They, they bought Bitstamp for 200 million. Their UI, their user interface is great. They just continue to evolve very quickly. The platform with technical charts, etc. They're going to have really good numbers. It's going to be a great call. That being said, I've had over the last few months, probably half my position get called away because as you know, I like to sell calls. There's a ton of premium because I do think at this level a lot of great news is priced in this company's here to stay. A lot of people are hoping it'll get put in the S and P at some point time it definitely qualifies. But I think when you have this company that's gone from, you know, 40 in a year to, to 105, there does needs to be some digestion. But from a platform, this company's here to stay. So I do think on weakness this would be a good company to add to, but I would not be adding to it at 105 here.
- [37:29]
Scott Wapner
Okay. I put some unfair zest on what it sold it a long time ago, made up 400%. You know what I mean?
- [37:36]
Joe Terranova
Well, you were.
- [37:37]
Scott Wapner
I don't want to be unfair. I didn't want to be unfair any more than I already was. Weiss, you own the ibit. What about the call itself that you've had a undeniable sea change right in not only the adoption of crypto related assets, but the support in D.C. of that time to load up a little bit on crypto related equities.
- [37:59]
Steve Weiss
You know, I don't really look at the equity, so I don't look the brokers or anything like that. They've done well and they've outperformed in a number of cases the actual bitcoin or Ethereum. I just think that the most cost efficient way to play is through ibit, which I believe Brin owns as well. So I do believe it'll continue to march higher and should it ever find a use case, man, it's really going to go through through the roof.
- [38:28]
Scott Wapner
All right. Still ahead, Santoles midday word. We'll be right back.
- [38:34]
Steve Kovach
All right.
- [38:34]
Scott Wapner
We're back on the halftime report. Our friends at Golf Channel following the PGA Tour's next stop. And this week it's at the Wyndham Championship. Reporter Todd Lewis joins us live from Greensboro, North Carolina, with what to expect. I see Jordan Spieth is in the field and so is Keegan Bradley. And that is the one that we need to watch really closely because if he does really well, Todd, as Ryder cup captain, he's not going to have a decision to make. It's going to be a formality.
- [39:00]
I
That's right. He could be the first playing captain since Arnold Palmer back in the 60s. We'll get to him in a moment. But first, the the talk this week is about making it to the FedEx cup playoffs. This is the final regular season event on the PGA Tour schedule, the 86 playing of the Wyndham Championship. And it's a hot one. I mean, the field temperature right now is close to 100 degrees, but the heat is really on those players trying to make their way to Memphis next week. You can't win the FedEx cup unless you have a date in Memphis, which is the first playoff event. And there are many prominent players on that bubble. Currently, the number 70 spot belongs to Matty Schmidt. And interestingly, as you take a look at the standings, guys 65 through 75, well, they're either safely in or not. It depends on how you look historically at this championship. There have been as many as five players that have played their way into the FedEx cup playoffs at the Wyndham Championship. And there have been a couple of years where no players have played their way into the FedEx cup playoffs via the Wyndham Championship. That is so this is a big, big week and it's a strong field, the strongest field the Wyndham Championship has had in the FedExCup era, 21 of the top 50 in the world competing here. One of those players, as you mentioned, the US Ryder cup captain Keegan Bradley, he is here checking out the possible players that will be on his team. But he also wants to play well enough to put himself as an automatic qualifier on the team. By the way, top six in the standings after the BMW championship will be automatically on that team. Then Keegan has six more picks after that. So it's going to be a great week here in Greensboro, guys.
- [40:33]
Scott Wapner
Todd, great stuff. Thank you very much. A lot at stake. We'll be watching. That's Todd Lewis for us on site. Be sure to watch the Golf Channel's coverage By the way of the Windmill championship begins tomorrow. Round one, three o' clock Eastern time. Up next and Tolle but it's midday work. Welcome back. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli. He is here post 9 about almost a month without a 1% move either way on the S and P. Is this the day or two that breaks that? We'll see.
- [41:00]
Jim Labenthal
We will see. It's not really showing signs although the market often does just kind of idle ahead of the Fed, ahead of the known big event normally. You know I always say boring is bullish. You like these calm kind of slow walk rallies. I do think there's a lot of signs some of these technical signals are flaring. We might have reached a point where it's time to back off a little bit. I look at things like put call ratio they were really low and they've turned higher. So the VIX yesterday we talked about look like it may be bottoming or trying to but you know it's funny.
- [41:31]
Joe Terranova
It'll, it'll be interesting.
- [41:32]
Jim Labenthal
Interesting to see if the market takes the Fed decision and commentary as an excuse to make a big move when everything is pointing in the direction of no move and they don't really want to tip their hand very much. And I think the GDP data today it gave ammo to both sides basically saying this, this economy really is it's time for, for easing further or everything's fine and there's no cost to wait and see. I tend to think the Fed, the Fed is well grounded in that position that there's not a real heavy cost to just waiting a little bit longer. But we'll see if the market agrees.
- [42:04]
Scott Wapner
Well, we'll see what Waller and Bowman have to say. That will be maybe the biggest thing that comes out of today. Whether you do in fact get these dissents at such a high level, the first that you would have had of that magnitude in three decades.
- [42:18]
Jim Labenthal
And by the way, sometimes when you've seen these dissents in the past, it has been a good indication of the forward movement of the whole committee. In other words they were leading indicators of what's coming next. Sometimes they weren't. Richard Fisher wanted to hike in June of 08 and he dissented and that was not the way to go because we almost. The world almost ended a few months later.
- [42:39]
Scott Wapner
All right.
- [42:40]
Steve Weiss
Yeah.
- [42:41]
Scott Wapner
Sorry, Richard.
- [42:42]
Steve Liesman
Yeah.
- [42:42]
Scott Wapner
The truth.
- [42:44]
Jim Labenthal
Oh, he's, He's. He's been open about it.
- [42:46]
Scott Wapner
Yeah. All right, we'll take a break. Thank you. This Mike Sentinel. We'll take a break. White has some moves on the other side.
- [42:52]
Steve Liesman
All right.
- [42:52]
Scott Wapner
Weiss has some moves. Maybe this first one won't surprise anybody. You sold? Unh.
- [42:58]
Steve Weiss
Yeah, as I said, I sold. I had to stop one, so I stopped selling it at 287 and it went 267 rather. And it went straight.
- [43:08]
Scott Wapner
You defended it numerous times. You bought more on numerous occasions. What finally changed your mind?
- [43:12]
Steve Weiss
I just think it's gonna be dead money. I think the management's doing all the right things. I have a very small position left. Not because I want to set. Because it went through my, you know, my limit. It's just going to be dead money. It may pop a little bit on the back of Humana's numbers, but overall I think I can make more money elsewhere. I love what management's doing. I think Hemsley coming back is great. John Rex is excellent cfo, slash president. But they own the old business still. So until they work their way out of it, they won't be profitable till, you know, increased profitability next year very quickly.
- [43:49]
Scott Wapner
You bought more. Is it fti?
- [43:50]
Steve Weiss
Fta.
- [43:51]
Scott Wapner
Fti, yeah.
- [43:53]
Steve Weiss
Look, this is one of those ones where you would say, I'm brilliant for finding it. Similar to Taiwan semi.
- [43:59]
Scott Wapner
They had a phenomenal order.
- [44:00]
Steve Weiss
There was a huge short position when the stock was only up 5%. I said this is understated based on upon the quarter. So I added to it, it's a pretty decent sized position. I think you can go to 200.
- [44:12]
Scott Wapner
All right, we'll do finals next. We got the Fed decision, the news conference today, of course, and Jeffrey Gundlock, the double line CEO, is going to let all that marinate a little bit and he's going to join us on Monday on closing bell at 3 o' clock Eastern Time. So I want to remind you of that and look forward to it. Like we will all be looking forward to hearing from Jeffrey Gundlach post the important Fed meeting and what the Fed chair has to say. Brin, final trades. What is yours?
- [44:42]
Bryn Talkington
Dell? Strong momentum. Joe should own it. Strong fundamentals. Earnings don't come out to August 28th. I think the stock creeps up to its all time high.
- [44:50]
Jim Labenthal
Joe Trade web. Strong momentum. We own in the etf. Excellent earnings report.
- [44:56]
Scott Wapner
You don't want to own Dell.
- [44:58]
Jim Labenthal
When Bryn owns the etf, I'll own Dell.
- [45:00]
Scott Wapner
Oh, okay. That's a trade. That's a final trade. Farmer Jim don't have to make it very hard.
- [45:06]
Joe Terranova
Alphabet.
- [45:07]
Scott Wapner
Okay. And Steve Weiss, Alphabet also.
- [45:09]
Steve Weiss
I was there first, by the way.
- [45:10]
Scott Wapner
Okay. Great stuff. Thanks, everybody. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [45:26]
Julia Boorstin
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer@ Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more@capella.edu.