← Halftime Report
Halftime Report
The Key Themes for Stocks in 2026 12/30/25
00:43:12
Frank Holland and the Investment Committee debate the main themes to look out for in 2026. CNBC's Steve Liesman also joins us with what to expect from the Fed next year. Plus, Josh Brown spotlights Hilton in his "Best Stocks in the Market." And later, the Committee debate the real estate sector. Investment Committee Disclosures
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Learn more@capella.edu I'm Scott Wapner, and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day.
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We record this live weekdays at 1212 Eastern.
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Listen in.
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Welcome to the Halftime Report. I am Frank Holland in for the judge Scott Wapner, front and center at this hour, the three key themes for your money heading into 2026. The investment committee is standing by with their playbooks. Joining me for this hour, we have Jim Laventhal, Jason Snipe and Josh Brown. Before we get the discussion started, a quick check on the markets. You can see we're in the red across the board. Kind of a muted day right now. The Dow down more than 100 points, the S and P and the Nasdaq down fractionally, the Russell down about a quarter of 1%. But of course, the Fed minutes coming up later today and they have the potential to change the momentum in this market, at least the potential Jim Lee month. I'm going to start there with you coming up later today. We're getting the minutes now. We already know some details here. We know we have a divided fed, three dissents, two said just pause. One person said 50 basis point cut. We know they're trying to weigh the impact of inflation and weakness in the labor market. Is there anything in this minutes report coming up later today that can change your view on either the market today or the Fed in 2020?
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D
I kind of doubt it. You know, Frank, we were here yesterday and I remember talking to you about signal versus noise. And I feel like the minutes are going to be a lot of noise because of all that dissension, frankly, on both sides and because the things that caused that dissension have not cleared up in the last few weeks and they're not going to clear up probably for a couple of months yet. Those items being things like how much is the labor market weakening and where is inflation and the Effect on tariffs. I do think that the Fed is going to be wise to pause here for how long we need to, but certainly the next meeting, I don't think they should be going. Let's get another couple of months worth of inflation data and jobs data. By the way, we talked about this yesterday too. But I continue to think this is very important. When the Supreme Court rules on the legality of the tariffs as they're currently enacted, that's going to put a lot of things into an uproar that may change the inflation numbers if tariffs are at least temporarily ruled illegal. The President will, of course, use different statutes, but things are going to be up in the air. And I think with the amount of easing that the Fed has done over the last year and a half, they, they have the luxury now of waiting and they should take that luxury.
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B
All right, Jason Snipe, we're waiting for these Fed minutes to come out. In the build up to it, is there anything you're anticipating, anything you want to look at when it comes to these Fed minutes or anything about the Fed that you think this could at least potentially clarify?
- [03:13]
E
I don't think so, Frank. You know, I echo a lot of Jim sentiments. And Frank, you already said it at the top, right? Three descents of, I mean, the Fed's never been more divided. Well, at least in the last six years. Let me say that for me, I think the focus for the Fed clearly is labor. That is the concern for them. It'd be interesting to see if there's some commentary about inflation. Right. I know, I know that it's obviously been a dual mandate for years, but they have definitely veered off into the Labor Department. We know labor is soft, so I don't expect anything earth shattering in terms of the minutes. But you know, my focus is kind of going into 2026. I think directionally we're still heading lower. There will not be a cut in January, but I think that, you know, with the Fed chair shift happening in May, looking into the back half of the year, I think that's the focus for me in terms of where, where, where policy goes.
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B
All right, Josh, same question for you. Anything in these minutes that's potential to change your view of the market right now, The Fed in 2026, two cuts priced in. As of right now, the Fed is.
- [04:18]
A
The least important chess piece on the board right now. Out of like all of the things that are driving markets globally, not just in the U.S. literally, the Fed is the least important. Not because the Fed isn't powerful or because we want to fight the Fed. It's just that you're looking at a 16% chance of a cut that could go to zero the next time we get a hotter than expected print on something. It could also double to, you know, a 32 or a 40% chance the next time we get something disappointing on on the labor front. But the reality is this has just been an incredible year for asset owners around the world. It's so much bigger than just whatever the FOMC is going to do. And the reason why what I'm saying I think is important is because the momentum is probably not going to stop on a dime just because the calendar turns over from December 31st into January. I want you to consider the top three performing sectors this year. Communication services stocks are up 34%. Tech up 25. Industrials up 20, not far behind the financials. You just take those four sectors. That is a huge chunk of the market. There are I think 13 or 14s and P500 stocks that have gone up more than 100% this year. But then you look at other asset classes away from the S and P and you realize that what's happening here is so much bigger. Europe is up 36% year to date. International emerging market stocks up 34%. International developed is up 32. Brazil is up 50%. Canada up 37. That's not the Fed. It's nothing to do with it. In fact, in Japan they had two rate hikes this year and the stock market broke like a four decade high. Gold is up 65%. The commodity index is up 20. The ag is up 7,7%. Tips are up 7%. Even cash is up. The only thing I could find that's down is Bitcoin. So we're not talking about when is the next 25 basis point cut. What we're really talking about is a wealth creation atmosphere of enormous magnitude. A lot of people have been underweight, they haven't been involved in international or they've forgotten how to buy things that are in S&P 500. And I think that should really be Investors focus for this coming year. What do I own? Do I own enough of it? Is it meaningfully diversified and does it have an opportunity to outperform in an environment where the S and P is selling at 22 times earnings?
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B
All right, Josh, we're going to talk a lot more about that broadening coming up just a bit in the show. But you're saying the Fed is the least important piece on the chessboard? I'm Going to go to the chess master, in this case our Steve Liesman to talk about these minutes coming up. Steve, what are your expectations? We know about the dissension in the Fed. We know that the issues that they're trying to weigh its labor and its inflation. What are we going to learn today?
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F
I just want to use the term on passant just to really show my how much I know about chess, Frank. But look, Jim said wait for the data. Josh said the Fed doesn't matter very much right now. And I kind of agree with both. Let me see if I can put it together which is this notion of waiting for the data. I think that's one of the reasons why the probabilities for January are so low, why it's a 5050 slot probability for March because we don't really have a clear picture. And if the outlook remains Frank, the way we think it is, which is that inflation either is stagnant or starts to come down the market, the job market remains somewhat weak, then I think we understand the direction of travel. And that makes Josh right, which is that in that context of a Fed that's either sticking where it's where it's at or possibly lowering rates over the next several months, then that's not something the market has to worry very much about. The danger becomes if we do wait for the data and we get a picture of the economy that's different from the one we thought another words a surprise on inflation, a surprise on growth or employment, then I think Josh would be wrong and we would have to care about the Fed.
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B
All right, coming up next year, not only are we expecting to get the president announce his pick for the new Fed chair. Remember Jay Powell, not remember you. I know you know, but Jay Powell is the chair up until May, but we also get four new voting members. The Cleveland president, Beth Hammack, you did a great interview with her just a few weeks ago. Neel Kashkari in Minneapolis, Lori Logan in Dallas, Anna Paulson in Philadelphia. Are any of these people, are they likely to change kind of the, I guess the, the, the texture of the FOMC and come up with a different point of view than what we're expecting to see in these minutes?
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F
I don't think so, Frank. And I think one of the reasons is getting back to what Jim said. Wait for the data. Look, Hammock and Logan have been a little bit more hawkish. Kashkari, maybe a little bit more like them, not quite as hawkish. Paulson, a little bit more dovish. John Williams, I Interviewed not too long ago, he sees rates coming down again. I'm going to come back to where Jim started. And the big unknown for next year is just what is this economy doing right now? You have this conflict between strong GDP growth and weak labor market growth. And that could be joined or solved by the issue of productivity. If that ends up being right and a big story for 2026, the Fed can cut into that process. And I don't think think that people like Hammock and Logan are going to stand in the way of that. If you don't have inflation as a problem, the real issue, the real divide, is how big a deal is 3% inflation. Well, if it starts to come down, it's not a big deal. And if the job market remains weak, that clears the way, gives the Fed a green light for cutting rates. If it goes the other way, you know, Frank, it can't be understated how difficult it is for the Fed right now. And by the way, economists on Wall street, street as well. Now, the easy thing to do, which is what I think Josh is focused on, is the outlook for earnings that remains positive. And if the economy remains in good shape, then those forecasts are better earnings. That's the real key for investors, I'd say.
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B
All right, our Steve liesman live in D.C. stephen, you can have those five minutes coming up later today. It's good to see you as always. Thank you very much. All right, Jim, you've been chomping at the bit to kind of get at this. I think the question that Steve left us with is what's the economy doing right now? That is the question. If you look at the Fed GDP now, we're at 3% growth for Q4. Obviously, the Q3 first rate was much better than expected. So do you believe we have a strong economy and an economy that can help drive earnings in the S and P and hit those earnings estimates that everybody seems to be pinning their hopes on for next year. A lot of noise about the fact there were no bearish strategist on Wall Street. Everybody's bullish for next year.
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D
Yeah, well, you got to come up with something out of left field to become bearish. I mean, you've got to come up with a scenario where you see a recession forming. And if you're seeing a recession forming, it's because of an unknown unknown. You're not looking at things like bank balance sheets and saying, oh, they hey, Houston, there's a problem that's about to blow up. So I don't like to do that sort of thing of roll the dice and just see, hey, maybe I'll be right if I call for a recession. And I think nobody else does either, which is why nobody's bearish to your question about the economy though. I think we're in a strange and unusual economy and many of us have remarked on this. Where you do have growth, the growth figures are legit, but they are very much focused on artificial intelligence infrastructure build out. We know that housing and manufacturing outside of AI is in the doldrums and we do have worries about the labor market, which generally you don't see when you're putting up quarterly GDP numbers of 4.3%, 3.0%. So I think that's a conundrum. What I was chomping at the bit, to use your expression, and I'd like to think of a little bit more reserve than that, but maybe not always. What I might have been chomping on the bit at is that what we haven't talked about with regards to the Fed is there is a stealth easing going on right now, which is that they are expanding the balance sheet once again. And I am strongly of the belief that is that that is stimulative and it's something that doesn't get enough press. It also gives another reason why the Fed may say, hey listen, we're in no hurry, we're doing plenty to support the economy.
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B
No way. A lot of people think maybe get too much press. The Mag 7 Josh, I'm going to come over to you. What's the state of the trade? The MAG7 trade right now is what does it mean that only two members of the MAX 7 are outperforming the S and P this year, especially going into a new year? What does that momentum or lack thereof mean for this trade?
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A
I think this represents the triumph of index investing, passive investing, and diversified portfolios. They warned us repeatedly, day in, day out. Just you wait. Once this whole, I think, collapses, or once the tech bubble bursts, or once Apple stumbles or Meta stumbles or Microsoft, you're in big trouble. The whole market's going to get taken down. It was the opposite. What actually happened was some of the biggest stocks on earth had horrible years relative to the rest of the market. And as their market cap bled out like from a wounded animal, it found other places to go. It went into banks, it went into health care stocks, it went into gold miners, it went all over the place. And the market is finishing this year plus 18%. And just so everyone's aware, we have had dozens and dozens of record high closes and that is with some of the largest stocks in pretty substantial drawdowns. So for every Palantir and Alphabet and Broadcom, which have had incredible performance this year, there have been tons of stocks with massive market caps that have been listless to negative like your Salesforces, like your Meadows, etcetera, etcetera. And this is the beauty of this year for investors. It's unlike 2023. You didn't have to be overweight. It helped, but you didn't have to be. There was money to be made all over the place, including overseas, as I pointed out earlier. And to me that is the big takeaway from dispersion amongst the max seven this year.
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B
Okay, but that applies in 2025. I don't know if you've seen this. Dan Ives out with his five plays for 2026. Microsoft, Apple, which you own, Josh Tesla, Palantir and CrowdStrike. You also own CrowdStrike. Your take on this list, is there one of these that you especially like out of this five right here of Dan Ives picks?
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A
I have been a long term shareholder in Apple and spent the first half of this year and probably last year very critical of Apple's stumbles to do something in AI. It may just turn out that loudmouths like myself and other Apple shareholders who thought we were quote, falling behind have the story backwards. What Apple actually has done, which is sort of fascinating, is it has won by not playing any. Star Trek fans remember the Kobayashi Maru? The only way Captain Kirk was ever to win, was able to win the game was by not playing at all. They did not announce record setting capex numbers quarter after quarter after quarter on the theme. Instead what they've done is they've sat back, they've watched everyone else come and go, launch products, gain users, etc. Etc. And what they'll probably end up doing is walking past all of the mistakes, copying all of the successes and rolling out what is arguably going to be the most important version of AI because it's the one that's going to be in all of our pockets. I understand OpenAI wants to launch a couple of devices. I wish you luck. I understand Microsoft's got, you know, their own hardware. Okay, great. When Apple is finished, in my view, with, with their product and AI that's actually usable beyond just an improved Siri, I think it'll be the one that has the most traction because it's billions of installed devices and it's a user base that never leaves almost no matter What?
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All right, Kobayashi Maru. That was a deep poll, Josh. I like that one. I'm a big Star Trek fan myself.
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I came to get down today.
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Frank, I can see, I can see Jason Snipe, I want to come over to you. Microsoft's on that name as well. You're a shareholder of Microsoft. The real thesis here when you talk at least Dan Ives thesis is about the Azure growth being underestimated. Do you believe that's the case? Because we saw pretty tremendous growth when it came to Google Cloud, Oracle clouds out there, there's a lot of clouds out there, Neo clouds and things like that. Is it simply the cloud business? Did you think that's going to give Microsoft an advantage coming up to next year or are there some other aspects of the the business or are you not as bullish on Microsoft as Dan Ives is?
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E
I think that's, that's what's tied to the multiple obviously I think Azure growth has been phenomenal amongst the rest of the players. Right. But I think to, to Josh's point, you know as I look at the Magic 7 performance and what's happened this year, they obviously I think this has been healthy for the market. They have not traded as a monolith and if you look at the top 10 names that have performed from a performance perspective in the S and P, none of those names are on that list. You're talking about Western Digital, Robinhood, Seagate, Micron, Newmont.
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Right.
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So these are different names to Josh's points.
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A lot, a lot of the flows.
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Have went to other places and I think that's positive but, but you cannot abandon the growth for these and again if we look at the earnings, 30% earnings growth in the tech sector.
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Right.
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15% earnings growth going into next year. So these are names you continue to need to put into the stable understand I think the second derivative plays can play out well like the palantirs like Dan is talking about. Definitely. Power has obviously been a theme but I think it's going to be important to kind of spread the wealth. I think that story continues to roar going into 2026.
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B
No name wasn't on this list Alphabet. Jim, you're Alphabet shareholder. I'm going to go to use a Star Trek reference Alphabet a lot like the board it seems like resistance is futile. This company continues to find a way whether it's to going cloud TPU's, whatever the case may be Gemini, another example we keep saying oh Alphabet's behind they just catch up YouTube Waymo, what is your. Waymo is another Great example. What's your take on that name being left off this list? By the way, if you look at Q4, Q4, Alphabet's up almost 30%. It's having a great Q4, more than 29% right now.
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D
It's up over 100% from those lows back in May. And I don't know why Dan left it off. I mean, he's a stellar analyst. Just to continue with the astronomical things here, it may just have been the price. It may have been the return. This is no longer as cheap as it was when it was trading in the high teens not that long ago. So maybe he's looking at and saying, hey, it's fairly priced. We can do that from time to time. We can look at a great company like Alphabet and say, hey, it's fairly priced. Now, I'm not going to sell it, but I don't think you're going to have a 100% gain from here over the next six months or even 12 months. It might be closer to the market return. So maybe that's why he left it off. But I'm, I'm not selling it here. I do, you know, I had a little coughing fit and I've got to, I've just got to fess up.
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That.
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D
Josh, I think you, you may have caused a little coughing fit. That Kobayashi Maru. You know, you're talking to a class A geek here. I think you mashed up Star Trek. I think we're all aware you, you know, you mashed up war games with, with Star Trek, right? You know you did that.
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I may have.
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E
I.
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I may have.
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B
I think we better move on. This is not a sci fi show. It is certainly an investing show. I want to go point out one other name that was left off the Ives list. That was Meta and kind of opposite of Apple. They kept boosting their capex and spending. When to get to Meta. Also acquiring an agent startup, Manus, in a bid to prove its AI capabilities beyond ads. Our Mackenzie Sagalos has all the details. Mac.
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G
Hey, Frank. So Metta reportedly paying more than $2 billion for Manus, a startup founded in China but now based in Singapore. It builds agents that businesses can use to offload work like basic web builds, competitive research and customer analysis. The startup growing its revenue 20% plus month over month and giving Metta a real subscription line that it can point to as investors press for a payoff on its AI. Spending those shares, while higher today on the news are still lagging Alphabet and the broader tech sector year to date. So far this year, CEO Mark Zuckerberg has spent roughly $30 billion on hiring, according to DA Davidson's GIL laureate. And the push to prove ROI only intensified after Meta spent almost half of that in June to bring in scale AI founder Alexander Wang to lead the effort. Investors are still waiting to see what exactly all that spending has delivered. One VC source put it bluntly, Metta is buying what it couldn't build fast enough, one of the few consumer AI apps up for sale, with a view to beef up its business offerings and plug it into Meta's distribution across roughly 3 billion users.
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B
Frank again, Segalis, the very Latest on Metta, that is shares up just about 1%. Mac, thank you very much. Good to see you. All right, we're kind of hit on some of the names that were left off Alphabet and Meta. But Dan Ives did touch on Cybersecurity. One name that wasn't on the list. But I want to touch on with you. Jason. Palo Alto Networks. I'm just looking at the chart. Yeah, I'm looking at the chart. They had a big acquisition. They bought another cybersecurity company. Platformization is a big theme, yet this company's stock seems to continue to lag. What do you see going on here? Because it's certainly considered at least one of the blue chip players in the cyberspace. Yeah.
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E
So, I mean, it's too large. Well, I would say the Cyber Ark acquisition, which is a significant one, that was a $25 billion acquisition into the identity game, which I think will be accretive to them longer term. And the second one is obviously this Chronosphere deal, which was a $3 billion deal. So I think that's been what's kind of held the stock back a little bit. The platform, the new platform strategy has been in play for some time now. So I think we're starting to see some results. But I think it's been the acquisition moves that they've made that the kind of the market is trying to digest right now. But I think going into 2026, I think you'll start to see some spring up in that stuff.
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B
All right, Josh, want to come over to you about CrowdStrike that was on the Ives list. Stocks having a great performance this year. Your view of it going into next year. And do you think everything in the cyberspace is priced in? I mean, I remember when the search SEC added that you had to have people on the board with cyber expertise and you had to report things. It seemed like at least people thought that would be a big tailwind for cyberstocks. And it's. That hasn't really seemed to be a factor. You think that's a factor going forward?
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A
I do. Look, CrowdStrike in the era over the last three years is up an average annual return of 66%. That's like insanity. Even versus other stocks. Microsoft's done 27 average annual returns in the era. Oracle 35. A lot of people think Oracle had been like the big winner. But Cyber has done twice as well, specifically crowdstrike. And that is because what AI represents is an exponential increase in workloads and every workload requires security, therefore more. I mean more more. I means more cybersecurity. It's almost a tautology. There's no way around it. And so that's been a tailwind for these stocks, but. All right, stare at this chart real quick. All right, now switch it back to Palo Alto. I want people to see the similarity. 1, 2, 3. Great. Same chart, guys. When did these stocks peak? They peaked in November, right as the Oracle blow up started. And all of a sudden there was this sort of mass doubt about the AI infrastructure build out and the capex spend for next year, etc. Etc. And some of the financing. So these stocks are in their own world, the cyber stocks. But like most technology stocks they are at reliant on there being a tailwind for the theme. And once that was called into doubt around Thanksgiving, the, you know, these stocks weren't immune. That being said, I think it's a buying opportunity for both. I agree with Snipe on Palo Alto and I just happen to prefer a crowdstrike but I think they can both work together into the end of the decade.
- [24:09]
B
All right, we're going to talk about the broadening. Josh, you brought it up earlier. Jim, I'm going to come over to you. If you look at Q4, we've seen the broadening, the equal weights outperforming the market cap weighted S and P. Health care is taking leadership up over 11%. Some other areas also financials up about two and a half percent. It's kind of just tied neck and neck with tech and the communication services there too. Do you believe in this broadening? How would you play this broadening going into the new year? Also with the thought that we may start to see the impact of the tariffs when it comes to onshoring companies moving things back to the US I talked to a lot of transport CEOs. They believe about Q2 of next year is where we're really going to start.
- [24:43]
D
To see that Well, I do believe in the broadening and I just believe that all of the, the effects that have so far been concentrated in artificial intelligence. Stock earnings, Frank, are going to start to flow through to the industrials, to the material stocks, even energy, which we're seeing a pickup in. Now health care is obviously not a direct beneficiary of that, but it's moving for its own reasons. And I think, you know, there does have to be a public service announcement here that over the last three years there have been plenty of head fakes in which the RSP, the equal weight S&P 500 has outperformed for a short period of time. Time the overall market cap weighted index. And by no means am I saying or recommending that somebody should go sell all their tech stocks and put it into financials, industrials, etc. But I do have a healthy allocation to it. And I guess the most insightful thing that I can say is 2023 for someone like me was a terrible time in the markets. Why? I held a lot of good companies that were not technology, but the only things that worked in 2023. War in technology. I can tell you 2025 has been much better for somebody like me who has seen, as you pointed out, financials doing well, drug stocks doing well, etcetera, etcetera. And I do believe that that momentum will continue. I think there are some sleeper sectors like energy that we need to start paying attention to. If it's rallying with crude oil below $60. Imagine what happens if crude oil goes above $60 gets to the rather tepid price of 65. Tepid in historical standards. That can happen and I think we should be positioned for it.
- [26:11]
B
Jason, want to come over to you. Looking at Q4 in particular, the laggards of utilities and consumer staples, we've seen a broadening without those two sectors participating. Do you see those accelerating, you know, kind of catching a bid coming up next year, even though they're technically defensive. But utilities seem to be part of the trade at least in the early part of the year.
- [26:28]
E
Yeah, I think, I think definitely I'd be more bullish on the utilities sector. Obviously that's kind of the power related names that I think could, could get some steam kind of going into 2026. I think Staples is always interesting because, you know, they're pricey. A lot of those names are pricey with not a whole lot of organic growth. So. So it's tough for me to kind of see that as, as a Runway. But to Jimmy's point on Health care, I think health care is, is an interesting one, especially going into a midterm election year. Healthcare typically is not the best sector to be running. Go ahead.
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D
You're going to, I'm just going to say I think it can do well this year. I'm sorry if I'm taking the words out of your mouth, but you know, we already have drug pricing from the government, right?
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A
You got it.
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D
You got three years ago with the IRA bill. And that's always the threat during a midterm election year is that the government will come in, you know, somebody will run on the platform of I'm going to have Medicare and Medicaid negotiate drug pricing.
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E
100% done.
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D
Sorry, Jason.
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E
Take and then what I would, what I would say, I mean, IBB is obviously a sector that I've been a subsector. I've been talking a lot about on the show. And for me, the main focus is those patent cliffs that are, that are falling and the rebuilding of these pipelines. And I think that's why biotech can continue to work.
- [27:36]
B
All right, look at the IBB pulling back about one and a third percent right now. All right, coming up next, Josh Brown's best stocks in the market. He's revisiting a top travel stock that's been breaking out. We're going to show you that name coming up half times. Back in just two minutes.
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A
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E
What made you confident that you could.
- [28:21]
B
Do something that hadn't been done before?
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H
I have no fear of failure.
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C
Trailblazing women, changing the game.
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I
One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
- [28:32]
G
Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
- [28:37]
C
Life is short and you just gotta.
- [28:39]
B
Think big to accomplish big things.
- [28:41]
C
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.
- [28:49]
B
All right, welcome back to Halftime. On this penultimate day of 2025, we have Josh Brown's best stocks in the market. Josh, take it away.
- [28:58]
A
Yeah, so we on best stocks in the market list. We've spent a lot of this year talking about travel. It's been the strongest sector of consumer discretionary and by a lot we've seen restaurant stocks stumble, we've seen a lot of other areas of consumer spending be called into question. But the one thing that never slowed down even for a minute, almost at every segment, every level has been travel. And as a result on this show we've been spotlighting best stocks like Marriott, like Expedia, like we did the airlines, we did Delta, we did United. Today I want to talk about Hilton. So Hilton has the same business model as Marriott. People think they're in the hotel business. They're not. They're in the points business. So they own none of that, approximately none of their hotels. I think they own maybe 40, 50 hotels. The entire chain is owned by developers and franchisees. And what Hilton does really well is run this asset light sort of like marketing slash loyalty points business. And they're making tons of money. And you can see in this chart the stock's been a winner all year. That little blip down was liberation day. And that problem was fixed relatively quickly. And it has spent most of this year in an uptrend. The stock had incredible earnings just like Marriott in November. Next earnings reports are not until February. And what we're going to hear in February is that these companies have just experienced record breaking traffic volumes. Revpar any, any metric that you would value these stocks on for this fourth quarter. And I think they'll be guiding higher for next year. And I think that's what these charts are telling us. So in the column we've got specific levels, we've got risk management levels as well. We never go into a name without knowing where we're wrong and where we want to be stopped out. But I do believe that these stocks will remain in uptrends and, and there is more than just Hilton. This just happened to have been the one that caught our eye technically. And Frank, we'll be keeping an eye on this group as we get into next year.
- [31:05]
B
All right, I'm looking at one name on this list. It's Delta. Jim, you're owner in this one. Your view on the travel trade more broadly? We were just talking about weakness in the labor market and some concerns there and also inflation. Does the travel trade continue in 2026 with these concerns?
- [31:19]
D
I think it does. I think it does. You know, if I look at Delta as just emblematic and Josh is obviously looking at Hilton, but if we look at Delta, what I see is everything's going right you got low fuel prices. You've got labor contracts in place. You've got very high capacity utilization. And that capacity utilization is at the front of the plane where they make the most money. They're paying down a lot of debt. So if you're going to get bearish on Delta or the travel industry in general, Frank, you got to go back to what I said earlier about you've got to see a recession. And if you're going to call for a recession, it's kind of like you're licking your finger in the wind and saying, yeah, I think the wind is going to change here and blow the other way. There's just no evidence of it happening.
- [31:56]
B
Yeah, just anecdotal. If you try to get one of those Comfort plus seats, like they're sold out.
- [31:59]
D
Well, they're kind of overblown anyway. They really are overblown.
- [32:02]
B
Well, I'm pretty tall, so I, I need a little leg room.
- [32:05]
D
Jay, we got to move you a little further up in the cabin, my friend. I'll work on that with you.
- [32:09]
B
Thank you. By the way, Josh, the best stocks in the market in the travel trade, Marriott, Expedia, D, Delta, and United. With that, we want to get to the headlines with Courtney Reagan.
- [32:17]
I
Hi, Frank. Israel says it will suspend more than two dozen humanitarian organizations providing aid in Gaza starting in 2026. The Ministry of Diaspora affairs said the organizations facing bans, including Doctors Without Borders, didn't meet new requirements for sharing staff funding and operations information. Meanwhile, Britain, Canada and France released a joint statement calling on Israel to take urgent action as the humanitarian situation worsens in Gaza. Well, the FBI says Americans were victims of $333 million worth of Bitcoin ATM scams in 2025. That's up 83 million from 2024. And there are over 45,000 Bitcoin ATMs across the country that allow users to insert cash and send it to a digital wallet anywhere in the world without money being nearly impossible to recover. Well, France has granted Georgia Mall Clooney and their Twitter citizenship. The naturalizations were announced over the weekend. In a 2021 interview, George Clooney described their farm in France as their primary residence. He went on to say he was worried about raising his kids in LA and the Hollywood culture and wanted them to have private lives. Frank, back over to you, our Courtney.
- [33:24]
B
Reagan live at the nasdaq. Courtney, thank you very much. Coming up next year on halftime, the dogs, the Dow, they've had a pretty strong year, but will they fetch even more easily? Gains in the year ahead, we'll debate it. Halftime's back right after this break.
- [33:35]
E
What made you confident that you could.
- [33:38]
B
Do something that hadn't been done before?
- [33:40]
H
I have no fear of failure.
- [33:42]
C
Trailblazing women, changing the game.
- [33:44]
I
One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
- [33:49]
G
Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
- [33:54]
C
Life is short and you just gotta.
- [33:56]
B
Think big to accomplish big things.
- [33:58]
C
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.
- [34:06]
B
And welcome back to the Halftime report. Meet the 2026 dogs of the Dow. Barron's picked out the 10 highest yielding stocks in the Dow, which are on track to notch their best year since all the way back in 2019. Jason, I'm going to start with you. These are two companies in areas we're just talking about consumer staples and health care. UnitedHealth and P&G.
- [34:24]
E
Yeah, yeah. So obviously, UNH has been a laggard all year, is down 35%. I think, you know, at this point, it's like what is not in the stock? Right. You know, Hemsley is a known commodity. He's obviously ran the company. He's responsible for this turnaround. Utilization rates are way up. Medical costs, that's, that's a trend across the industry. So, and there's, they are shrinking Medicare Advantage membership, which I think will be accretive to their margins. So I think this is a story again, going into 2026 that will fare better. Procter and Gamble down 14 for the year. October US package sales were down, which wasn't great. I mean, 50% of their business is done internationally. I think the consumer was kind of cautious with the Fed shutdown and other things. So again, you know, that multiple has come down 1 to 4%. Organic sales rate is tough with a, with an expensive stock, but I think this could fare better as the consumer holds up next year.
- [35:23]
B
Josh, you got a few of your best stocks in the market on this list. Talking to Chevron, Amgen, Home Depot, Johnson and Johnson. You look kind of mixed performance when it comes to the price action on the stock. But obviously this is about the dividend.
- [35:36]
A
Yeah. So I don't play these types of games typically where it's like, all right, what are the highest yielding, worst performers, formers. And let me use that as my, like, as the pond that I want to fish in. If you, if you guys pay attention to what I do here on the show, everyone is aware I'm Looking for winners, not losers. That being said, I do think that there are some opportunistic situations on this list. I guess the one that I'm most intrigued by, I'm not investing currently is Nike. I think it's its fifth down year in a row, if that's even possible. Or maybe it's fourth, but either way, that that's never happened in the company's entire history since coming public in the early 80s. And I would be really surprised if it persists another year. But once again, this is not what I do. I'm not looking for the bottom of the barrel. I'm looking for winning stocks. And these are not that.
- [36:29]
B
Just in all fairness, Josh, not all of them are losers. I mean, Johnson and Johnson up over 40% year to date. So we, within some of your best stocks in the market, there are a couple that are winners. But you're saying you're not focused on dividends, you're looking for price appreciation.
- [36:41]
A
I guess, yeah, I think, I guess the premise of like, the premise of the reason we should pay attention to these is because they're dogs of the Dow. That's the kind of thing that I just, I don't, I don't see value in that as an investor.
- [36:56]
B
All right, Jim, coming over to you. Any of this, you know, investment thesis seem attractive to you? Any of these names seem attractive to you?
- [37:04]
D
No. I'm going to take Josh's ambivalence at least one step further and say be very, very careful here. Normally when I talk to dividend investors, they tend to be retirees or people who are looking at long term holdings here. And quite often with these stocks, what you see is you get the dividend and nothing else. Now, the poster child for that is of course Verizon on this list, which over 10 years, actually almost 20 years, the share price is gone nowhere. All you've gotten is the dividend and it has woefully underperformed the S&P 500. You would be much, much better just buying a diversified ETF than buying something like Verizon. And that to a certain extent applies to a lot of stocks on this list which are troubled. You know, I'm sorry, Jason. UnitedHealth Group. Maybe it turns around, maybe things get better. Home Depot, maybe the housing sector improves. But why take that chance? I just. These stocks are trading at high dividend yields for reasons and they're not good reasons.
- [37:55]
B
All right, we'll leave the conversation there. By the way, Verizon up about one and three quarters of 1%.
- [37:59]
E
Year to date.
- [38:00]
B
Coming up next, this is this year's worst performing sector. The question is, is it ready for a big bounce back in 2026? We'll debate the committee strategy coming up next. And we're back on the halftime report. Real estate the worst performing sector this year, but could a big turnaround be in the works for 2026? Diana Olik takes a look in this week's property play and what lies ahead for commercial real estate. Diana?
- [38:23]
H
Well, Frank, CRE leaders are slightly less optimistic than they were ahead of 2025. According to a Deloitte survey, 83% of respondents said they expect their revenues to improve by the end of 2026. That compared with 88% last year. Fewer respondents said they plan to increase spending. 68% said they anticipate higher expenses in 2026. All right, so let's drill down on specific sectors, starting with office, which seems to have bottomed. Vacancy rates are expected to drop below 18% as more tenants return to the market. According to Colliers, there will continue to be a flight to quality as class A buildings in many markets are now almost fully occupied. Office construction is also at its lowest level in over three decades. That, according to Yardy, now in multifamily rents are starting to ease as a record level of new supply continues to make its way through the pipeline. Multifamily has led investment sales volume since 2015, and there are no signs of this changing. But its share of total volume is expected to ease somewhat as investors allocate more capital to other sectors like office data centers and retail, according to Colliers. And speaking of data centers, which we all love so much, Deloitte called the sector a clear bright spot in the US commercial real estate landscape. It pointed to nine major global markets where 100% of the new construction pipeline is already fully pre leased. Data centers do, though, face some headwinds in financing, grid capacity, zoning and even local politics. Now for the outlook on many more sectors, including property technology, that's proptech, go to the newsletter cnbc.com propertyplay it's free and it's fun. Frank.
- [40:02]
B
It's great, Diana. I mean, these stories have been fantastic. Diana Ohlick for this week's Property Play. Thank you very much, Diana. All right, no direct commercial real estate exposure on the desk. But Josh, I'm going to start off with you. A REIT that you own, Invitation Homes, just your take on real estate coming up in the new year.
- [40:18]
A
Yeah. Invitation Homes is effectively rental single family homes. It's had a, it's Had a disappointing year this year the whole real estate sector has been out of favor and with good reason. I don't see that turning around anytime soon. These are total returns, return plays. Though a lot of the return that's going to come from these types of REITs is going to be a combination of what the share price does along with the dividend income. And of course, when I own these things, I am usually setting things up so that I am reinvesting that, that distribution income which I have been doing on invitation home. So the lower price is not fun, but the dividend distribution goes higher and we continue to buy.
- [41:01]
B
All right, Snipe, quick word. You got Dr. Horton Pure play Homebuilder rates are, they're kind of in a place where people don't really want to move, especially have a mortgage under 4%. Your view on real estate coming up next year on this name?
- [41:12]
E
Yeah, so I mean Dr. Horton is roughly positive for the year. It's up around 4% I think for me. Listen, their cohort is a first time homebuyer. That's, that's the group that they focus on. You know, buyer incentives had definitely hurt margins. I think that's a story here. You know, affordability, as Josh mentioned, I mean, is just a major problem with, you know, these types of names. And until we can kind of see mortgage rates come down meaningfully, we're probably not going to see some real movement there.
- [41:37]
B
All right, Dr. Horton pulling back about a half a percent right now. Coming up, Mike Santoli joining us with this midday word. You don't want to go anywhere, Stay with us. And we're back on half time. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joining us with his midday word. Mike, we having a conversation earlier. Josh was actually saying is only one asset class. He was paying attention to you. That's lower. It's oil, but it's also oil. It's sorry he said bitcoin, but it's also oil. The dollar kind of lumped in there today. Energy is actually the best performing sector. Any, any meaning behind that in this low volume. You know, just a lot of people off during this holiday.
- [42:07]
E
Sure.
- [42:08]
J
I mean I attribute it largely to year end. Look at the laggards, see if there's any potential for relief. A lot of times what January brings is this kind of mean reversion trades stuff that was really kind of over punished in the, in the prior year. You definitely saw this week, last couple of days that it seems like whatever tax law selling was to be done is pretty much through. And so I think you're getting some pickup there. Now also there is this kind of global reflation trade suddenly happening out there. And so I think industrial metals are part of that. Oil doesn't necessarily have to move along with it, but there are commodity flows that seem like they are at this point favor.
- [42:44]
B
All right. Kind of a muted day on the markets, but you got a lot of excitement coming up later today. You have your mystery broker.
- [42:49]
F
Yes.
- [42:49]
J
In a couple of hours right here. So this is a source of mine for 16 years. And here's one of the things that will be accomplished by having him here as guest. One, he's going to give a pretty interesting provocative outlook, I think longer term for markets. Two, it will prove once and for all that the mystery broker who has won a bit of a following over the years is not Josh Brown because that was one of the big guesses over the years is also not Mike Wilson or Jim Cramer or David Tepper. So stay tuned.
- [43:19]
B
Stay tuned. Okay. Are you sure it's not Josh Brown?
- [43:22]
J
I'm sure. I wonder if Josh is sure.
- [43:25]
A
Can you imagine me doing anything quietly or mysteriously?
- [43:28]
J
That's what I said. That's been my answer. I was like, oh, the publicity shy Josh Brown does not want me to.
- [43:34]
B
Name him the mystery endorsement until 3pm we're going to find out with the mystery brokers. I'm sure it's going to be a great interview, a great conversation. Mike Santoli, we are looking forward to you keeping us in suspense, man. We want to know we had some bets out here. I'm not going. I can't see on TV what the bet the guesses were. But I'm excited. 3:00pm Mystery Broker revealed. All right, final trades coming up on Halftime right after this break. And welcome back to halftime. We are back with final trades. Josh Brown, you're up first.
- [43:59]
A
I mentioned CrowdStrike earlier in the show. I think the stock wins in the in 2026.
- [44:04]
E
Jason Snipe, Amazon was up 20% reacceleration.
- [44:09]
B
I like this stock here, the farmer. You get the last word.
- [44:12]
D
Pacific Gas and Electric. This is a utility, Frank, that was absolutely slaughtered earlier this year because people thought it was responsible for the L A fires. It was not. Now there are some financial repercussions nonetheless, but clearly they're not as dire as was feared. And the stock has a lot of momentum. You can see it over the last six months. Months. And I think this is where we should be going into the new year.
- [44:32]
B
You know, interesting. We're talking about utilities being one of the laggards in Q4 and the attractiveness utilities going to the New Year. You're picking the utility space.
- [44:38]
D
There you go.
- [44:39]
B
All right, that's going to do it for us right here on Halftime. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [44:54]
C
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the half Time Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftimereportdisclaimer what made you.
- [45:29]
B
Confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
- [45:32]
H
I have no fear of failure.
- [45:34]
C
Trailblazing women, changing the game One of.
- [45:37]
I
My favorite pieces of advice Think about what your boss's boss needs.
- [45:42]
G
Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
- [45:47]
C
Life is short and you just gotta.
- [45:48]
B
Think big to accomplish big things.
- [45:50]
C
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players New episodes every Tuesday. Wherever you get your podcasts.