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Halftime Report
The Market Pushes to New Highs 12/9/25
00:46:21
Scott Wapner highlights the Investment Committee's latest moves as the market pushes to new highs. Plus, we hit the latest Calls of the Day. And later, Josh Brown spotlights Carvana in his "Best Stocks in the Market."
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- [00:00]
Scott Wapner
What does it mean to live a rich life? It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes.
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Stephanie Link
And everything in between.
- [00:10]
Scott Wapner
With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and.
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Stephanie Link
Of life, your Edward Jones financial advisor.
- [00:18]
Scott Wapner
Will be there to help you move ahead with confidence.
- [00:22]
Stephanie Link
Because with all you've done to find.
- [00:23]
Scott Wapner
Your rich, we'll do all we can to help you keep enjoying it. EDWARD Jones Member, sipc the heaviest metal.
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Credit card of all time, rumored to be one of only 18 in existence, plated with the very same tungsten that forged the International Space Station.
- [00:45]
Mike Santoli
And wielded.
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Scott Wapner
At business dinners like a samurai sword.
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It's a classic corporate power move, but the real power move, having end to end visibility on your most critical shipments. FedEx, the new power move. I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in.
- [01:17]
Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, pushing towards new highs, stocks around 1% from yet another milestone. We will discuss and debate where your money goes from here with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour today, Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Brian Belsky and Josh Brown. We'll take you to the markets. We're green across the board. We obviously have the Fed meeting that is going. I said we're about 1% from a new high on the S and P. We've added a little bit as we come on the air today. We, however, are going to start with some new moves by the committee because not every day where we have many, many, many moves to get to. In the show today. We'll lead with that. We'll lead with Josh Brown with a new buy. It is service titan. It is TTA N hasn't quite traded a year. Hasn't quite traded a year almost. Why this?
- [02:12]
Josh Brown
So I watched it come public on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange with you, Judge, I don't know if you remember, but we made a joke on air that my, my, my landscaper should take a look at it because I think it would help him streamline his business and shout to Frank, by the way. So the story here is that I watched it for a full year. I watched all its earnings reports. I tracked the price and I looked at its fundamental progress and I felt that now would be a good time to start a position. It's not quite at its highs. It did have a nice rally after a reporting on December 4th. It's a really exciting business for me. I've done well in this space. I think about these vertical software companies that come to dominate a specific niche and almost become so entrenched and so ingrained in the workflows of that niche that they just become category killers, they become compounders. And Service Titan is at a very early stage of that. So it's going to be volatile. The company doesn't earn money yet. They're not attempting to. They're in crazy growth mode. And I think that, I mean this is not even a stock. I don't even know if it's in the Russell 1000 yet. It's certainly not in any of the S and P indices because they haven't even been trading a year. But like that's the opportunity because managers that are pigeonholed into The S&P 500, they're not paying attention to this yet. Here's what's going on. Basically roofers, gardeners, construction companies. This is both small and midsize business as well as commercial exterminators. They need to build their customers, they need to set appointments, they need to have their workflows be infused with AI to speed up workflow automation. They need these tools. And Service titan is becoming the category killer for all of these different trades. The last earnings report, they beat on the top, they beat on the bottom. Revenue grew by 25%. They're expected to grow revenue by 20%. As far as the eye can see. It's a subscription business, which is great. We love these air companies. Subscription revenue 182.8 million. That was up 26% year over year. And gross margins, which are I think going to become the story. 80.2% up 310 basis points per year. So the story is the more of the trades they can make partnerships with and get their software into the technician's hands in the field. The gear this business will be if it reminds you of toast, which I talk about a lot, very similar concept. And nobody is better positioned to bring a I to the trades. The last thing here, their best customers are P E backed. It's important not to think about all these trades professions as being small and midsize businesses. There have been huge roll ups created over the last few years by private equity. Those are the earliest adopters of this type of software, the stickiest customers. And not only does it help them with their profitability, it actually drives faster sales growth. And so that's why I think this is such a great way to play the trend through a specific vertical.
- [05:22]
Scott Wapner
Let me ask you a quick question before we move on to other moves. It's up 4% year to date and you pretty much have, you know, almost a full year to judge the stock. Is there something that the market might be skeptical about? Is there competition in the space valuation deal?
- [05:42]
Josh Brown
It's a great question. It's a great question. It's not cheap. It's about 10 times forward sales. So that is not what we would conventionally consider to be cheap for a software stock. I think if you look at the IGV names, they're probably more like between 6 and 8, but they're also growing much faster than most of the other publicly traded software companies because this is like a brand new business and they're dominating it. The other thing is they're not expected to reach GAAP profitability next year. So there are a lot of people who just would look at this and say, all right, I'll wait until they get earnings positive. People said that about a lot of the stocks that I'm involved with. Uber was nonprofitable for three years when I was buying it in the 20s, the 30s, the 40s. You have to believe that this company will know when it's time to focus less on sales growth, more on profitability.
- [06:32]
Scott Wapner
Okay.
- [06:33]
Josh Brown
Right now it's a land grab. And so, you know, I think that again, I think that's the opportunity. If they were Already profitable at $10 billion market cap, this thing would be in the mid cap 400 and it would be more discovered.
- [06:46]
Scott Wapner
Okay, good stuff. Thank you for that description too. So from, from, you know, a stock that's done okay with high expectations by Josh to one that's done really poorly that you've sold Brian Belsky. It's down 50% year to date, thereabouts. And it is Deckers. So tell me why you're bouncing on this now is it's just simply it's been so disappointing you can't stand to hold it anymore.
- [07:11]
Brian Belsky
That's part of it. The other part of it is that we think there's another alternative in the space that we like a lot better and that's on, on that we've owned for three years. But going back to Deckers and we took a fly on it in April, right around the same levels, stock sold off and now it's bounced. We thought, you know what, let's get out now that we're flat admit that there's going to be a lot more operationally that we think needs to go on there. So from A fundamental perspective in terms of momentum, fundamentally we like on a lot better.
- [07:38]
Scott Wapner
I mean are you, is this in any way a consumer statement? Because you're trimming Target as well, which has been another dismal performer down more than 30% year to date. Are these just idiosyncratic things you're done with? You still think the consumer's in reasonable shape?
- [07:56]
Brian Belsky
We do. I think the two things are mutually exclusive to each other. You know, Target we still think has operational issues longer term. We have now limited Target to our value portfolio and our in our dividend portfolio.
- [08:08]
Scott Wapner
Deep Value, Deep value.
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Brian Belsky
Deeper, deeper, deeper value. And we think that that stock from a longer term perspective, meaning the three to five years looks very, very interesting. We still like in that space Walmart and Costco a heck of a lot more. Scott, this is not an indictment on the consumer selling Deckers or really limiting Target. It's more about being very, very idiosyncratic in terms of our stock pick.
- [08:34]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, I mean I think the consumer is just confounding people. You know, on one moment looks really strong and then you think everything's going to be good. Then there's a Gallup poll out today that Americans expect to dial back holiday spending significantly. That that's according to the, the poll. Now Stephanie Link has been as aggressive and bullish, I think as it relates to the consumer. Unwavering in your belief that consumers are doing well, that they're going to hang in there and that they're going to crush it this holiday season. I mean you've said pretty much all of that.
- [09:07]
Stephanie Link
Well, the National Retail Federation is the one that said that people are going to spend $1 trillion on holiday spend this year. On average a family is going to spend $900 per family.
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Scott Wapner
I know. What does that mean relative? Okay, that's what I'm going to ask you.
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Stephanie Link
The best in 23 years. That's number one. Number two, we talk about the labor market all the time. I know everyone wants to talk about ADP and nonfarm payrolls. I look at weekly jobless claims. We just had the lowest weekly jobless claims since September of 2022. I mean that's a big statement. The jolts numbers were better. So consumer has jobs, they have better wage. Wages are running four and a half percent. We are a nation of spenders. You have to have the right product though. Well, you have to. Yes, we are.
- [09:46]
Scott Wapner
You know we are. But you're. The reason I bring it up and pivot to you is not, not so much. So you have to defend your position on the consumer, it's because you're buying more capital one because of your belief in the consumer.
- [09:57]
Stephanie Link
Consumer. That's right.
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Scott Wapner
Right.
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Stephanie Link
Well, absolutely.
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Scott Wapner
That, that in and of itself is the defense.
- [10:01]
Stephanie Link
But I think it's important to talk about why I have been bullish on the consumer. And I think in my 33 years of doing this, it's always been a bad bet to bet against the consumer. And, and again, if it's the top end that's doing all the spending, all right, but they're doing the spending and if you have the right products, they will buy them. So Capital One, it's the cheapest financial stock that I have in my portfolio, trading at 11.8 times earnings, 1.3 times book value. I think the 2026 story sets up very well from the Discover transaction, $1.6 billion in synergies. They are going to see better profitability. Net interest margins are poised to go higher. Capital return, they have 300 million and 300 basis points more in excess capital. So they're going to buy back $16 billion worth of their stock. So I like that setup and I think the numbers go much higher.
- [10:45]
Scott Wapner
Okay, so you've heard the other members of the committee and I appreciate you being patient while we got through those moves because they're important to do. And now you get to, as a committee member, judge the moves that you just heard about anything stand out to you either like or hate.
- [10:59]
Joe Terranova
Well, I think overall what we're hearing is that each of the three members are going in a different direction than what we've heard about over the last 18 months, which is technology, technology, technology. And I think that's representative of where we are in the market as we move towards the end of 2025. The broadening is real. I believe the Russell 2000 has recorded a new all time intraday high today as we speak. I love the financial sector. If you look at S&P 500 highs today, there are 15 of them as we came on the show and nine of them are in the financial sector. Whether it's your truist, your citizens financial group, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs. So the financials are represented by really strong tailwinds. I think the regulatory relief is helping there. As far as consumer discretionary look, we'll talk a bunch of consumer discretionary stocks later in the show, but for us it's been about having the idiosyncratic story. Ulta Beauty is an example of that. Okay. They have embraced a younger generation. It was reflected in their earnings report recently. It's about though off price with TJX and Ross store. So I think the totality of it and the message from it is it's a healthier market because there's more places that you can go for opportunities represented by what we heard from Josh, Brian and Steph.
- [12:19]
Scott Wapner
I was going to do that this later but I segues I think well here in terms of financial moves that you've made, several.
- [12:26]
Brian Belsky
Yeah.
- [12:27]
Scott Wapner
You bought more J.P. morgan. Correct. You bought more at Wells Fargo which is if not the largest, it's one of Steph's largest positions. Why buy more here? These stocks have had a pretty good move. JP Morgan maybe not as great lately as some of the others, but as a group they've performed really well this year.
- [12:45]
Steve Liesman
Yeah.
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Brian Belsky
If we take a look at the performance of our portfolios and specifically how financials have we've gotten the sector right now we need to get more concentrated in some of the stocks. That's why we lessened some names like Progressive and Citigroup and added more to Wells Fargo in particular because we think there's a lot of fundamental momentum there in the small mid cap space. We love small mid cap financials. They're fantastically positioned in terms of the Glacier Bancorp and the Stifels and the Ray Js.
- [13:14]
Scott Wapner
Well, you don't love Huntington Bancshares that much.
- [13:16]
Brian Belsky
Huntington bank shares. Yeah.
- [13:18]
Scott Wapner
Fall into that category.
- [13:19]
Brian Belsky
It does. But Huntington bank shares has been a roll up of a lot of different assets and they've been very aggressive in terms of how they've been building that out. We like more the organic growers within the small, the very small banks. I think that the theme going forward is going to be the really big banks and the really small banks in between. I think it's going to have more trouble. That's why we sold PNC as well.
- [13:40]
Scott Wapner
Banks have done well, you know, in part because the yield curve has been been steepening. So the net interest margin equation looks pretty good for the banks and that's going to be focused on heavily obviously with the Fed decision coming tomorrow and even more so perhaps the outlook. Steve Liesman joins us now, our senior economics correspondent. So most are expecting a cut. Let's just get that out of the way. You have your latest Fed survey which we'll get to in but I want you to react first and foremost to what President Trump told politico, Steve, that any Fed candidate has to want to lower rates immediately. Not a surprise in any way, shape or form. But it is probably, you know, Shaping the way that the President is clearly thinking about who this is going to be out of the so called Final 5 as we have what we think is the clue to who that name is going to be.
- [14:40]
Yeah.
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Steve Liesman
And it's one of those things where it's like you don't know whether or not to be exasperated or happy that the President puts the says the quiet part out loud. Right. I mean obviously that's what presidents hope for. It's usually not a spoken criteria. So let's be clear, this is a departure from the norm here. The issue is not really what the President wants, Scott. The issue is the extent to which the Fed chair will deliver it regardless of what's happening at the time. And there is some concern among the respondents to the CNBC survey that he will indeed do it despite what may be happening at the economy at the time. And so there is this concern and maybe it's part of why you've had this little inch up in the 10 year Treasury. It's not a big deal, but it's something worth watching.
- [15:30]
Scott Wapner
So you know, Kevin Hassett was making some comments at the Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit in which he says there's room for the Fed to cut more than 25 basis points. So you know, if he I guess was in the seat now, he'd be arguing for for 50. But it plays right into one of your Fed survey questions in which the result was Kevin Hassett is the favorite but not favored. Explain.
- [15:58]
Steve Liesman
Yeah. The survey shows, Scott, that while markets think Hassett is going to be named the next Fed chair, he is pointlessly not the top choice of respondents. Take a look. 84% of respondents think President Trump's going to tap has that director of the President's National Economic council. But only 11% think that's what the president should do. Governor Waller is the favored pick at 47, followed by Kevin Warshead, 23. Only 5% of respondents think either of the two will be chosen. And the reason looks to be linked to how tough Hassett has been believe to be on inflation, 76% think he'll be more tolerant of higher inflation than Powell was and slower to raise rates to combat it. And then on the other side, when it comes to the labor market, the same 76% think he'll be quicker to cut rates to address a weaker labor market, 22% saying he'll be about the same as Powell. So what's the reason? Well, 50, 51% see him following the wishes of the president for lower rates, 41% think he'll be independent. That's really the rub. Now, Scott, I want to be fair here and say we have not seen much of an uptick. There's been a little one in inflation expectations and that's the way the market would really express its concern about it. So I want to be careful saying this rise we've had in the 10 year and depreciation of the dollar might be linked to concern about haccp. But there's always a lot going on in the now $38 trillion bond market to push yields. A lot of, for example, supply coming this week.
- [17:21]
Scott Wapner
Yeah. Before I let you run real quick, 25 tomorrow. Yeah. Is that what you think?
- [17:27]
Steve Liesman
Yeah, 25 tomorrow. And I will say that, Scott, our first of all, only 45% of our respondents think the Fed ought to cut. There's concern about inflation and the Fed not taking seriously its 2% inflation target. And then only 35% think there's a follow on cut in January.
- [17:45]
Scott Wapner
All right, good stuff. You'll make your way down there. We'll see in the room where it happens, that being the press conference tomorrow. And I'll talk to you then, of course, after it's all finished. That's Steve Liesman. All right, so there was another interesting result from the survey. And Josh, I'm going to come to you on this. Okay. 90% of those asked in Steve Liesman's Fed survey. See, AI stocks is overvalued. 99, 9 and 10. Okay. Up from almost 8 in 10 in October. That's pretty interesting, don't you think?
- [18:17]
Josh Brown
It is. But is it like, I guess, is it really surprising the Max 7 once again outperformed the S&P 493. So like it's one more year of people that are underinvested. In the Air theme looking at the same, I don't know, 15 or 20 stocks doing backflips and being like, oh, they must be, I'm smart. Therefore those stocks must be overvalued.
- [18:44]
Scott Wapner
You know.
- [18:46]
If we, if we too smart ass. No, it is what it is. I mean it is what it is. 90%. See, AI stocks is overvalued. Yet if you can't believe it, if you look at, you know, where the money continues to go.
- [18:58]
Joe Terranova
Well, I would, I would imagine the percentage of those, so 90% think it's overvalued or probably say 5 to 10% are actually selling out of those stocks. They're maintaining the position.
- [19:08]
Josh Brown
Yeah. Short of.
- [19:10]
Steve Liesman
Yeah.
- [19:11]
Scott Wapner
So let's hit that Nvidia story that that broke, you know, yesterday because I haven't talked to you all about it, Joe. You know, the President greenlighting these Nvidia H2 hundreds. But of course with everything else there's a catch. If the US gets a 25% cut and the President saying, the President Xi of China has responded, quote, you know, in his words, positively, we'll see. The stock didn't really do much. No. On this move because as Christina Parts and Evolos laid out pretty clearly and I thought very well that there's a lot more than meets the eye than just a headline.
- [19:49]
Joe Terranova
Yeah, this is, this is going to be a continual story in 2026. First of all, I believe the Chinese really would prefer Blackwell chips more than any any of the other Nvidia chips. But I just think this is going to be a contingent story as we move into 26. I think what I've learned about 2025 as it relates to the Mag 7 is that it's, it's a year in which they have put on full display that you really have to look at them universally and understand from any given moment, especially as we move forward, they're not all going to perform in the same. I think we have broken down that strong correlation between those seven states stocks. I think they're going to go through periods like we saw earlier in the year where it was Microsoft and Metta and then as we moved into Q3, it's Alphabet and it's Apple and I think that continues as you move going forward.
- [20:41]
Scott Wapner
I thought, I thought. Steph, there was a noteworthy story today that, that our viewers would want to hear about. An update of sorts from Morgan Stanley on its model portfolio. In other words, if you're a client of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management or a client of one of the firm's partners, this is where your money's being invested by your financial advisor in their model portfolio in many respects of which they increase their exposure to Alphabet and they increase the exposure to GE for Nova which is holding an investor day today. You have a thought?
- [21:15]
Stephanie Link
I mean there's a lot of ways to play AI. It's Max 7 or it's the industrials and data center build out and utility and the grid improvements and Power and GE Vernova, even though it's up 91%, they're right front and center of electrification. We've been talking about that for such a long period of time. You know, that I've owned. I don't know if you want to go there, Vertiv and Eaton, but I also Own Quantum services. I think all four of them are going to benefit. So that's the way I've been playing because I'm more overweight that sector versus the mag sevens because I think there may be a little misunderstood. Let me move more misunderstood. I don't think I would chase GE Vernova. You're going to get volatility. I would buy any for the names that I just mentioned but on pullbacks.
- [21:56]
Scott Wapner
All right, now how about this. We all know that Oracle reports tomorrow and we've discussed it 3,000 times not only from an equity standpoint but the CDS. So I don't want to do that. What I do want to highlight is bank of America's trading desk today on Oracle and the importance of this earnings report. Probably the most systematically important print for the AI trade this week. You'll get Broadcom too mind you but this one, this is an opportunity they say for management to speak on the infrastructure buildout, address investor concerns on the timing of free cash flow, capex and revenue recognition, etc. Brian, I want to hear from you on the importance of this report if you agree with that.
- [22:35]
Brian Belsky
No, I were fully aligned with that thought. Especially since you've got two new co CEOs going to be talking about this together, number one. Number two, it's the whole notion of needing and wanting to go out in the public marketplace to get the cash. Do they really need it? No. But did they want it? Yes, they did that. So I think they're going to have to be very, very clear about why they did that. And remember too, Oracle has been just an amazing earnings and consistent driver of earnings even before all of this AI boom for Oracle in particular the last 18 months. So I think getting back to the consistency deliverability of their operating levels of earnings are going to be a really key metric that they're going to talk about.
- [23:14]
Scott Wapner
Okay, now we're going to come full round trip to where we started the show. Remember we started with that move with Josh and we're going to end the A block with another move from Josh and we're going to debate it too and you'll see why in a minute. You sold 3M up 28% year to date. Why did you sell out of this name?
- [23:32]
Josh Brown
I did really well with the stock and it's had a lot of trouble with a technical level. It's, it's bumped its head multiple times in the 1-70s. I saw it start to challenge the, the, the 50 day moving average and I just looked at it and said, you know What? I still like this turnaround story. I still think 3M can work. It's a great company. There's absolutely nothing wrong with it. But I see a lot of opportunities in stocks that have not done well this year. And I also see some breakouts that I'd rather be trading. So this is really just about. There are only so many slices in the pie in my portfolio, and I have to prioritize where I think the better opportunities are. But it's. It's not a debate in terms of. I'm bearish on 3M, because I'm not.
- [24:15]
Scott Wapner
No, I mean, the stocks had a nice move, Steph, as you know, you guys have been in this together, and you both continue to speak positively on it. Stock has had a nice move.
- [24:25]
Stephanie Link
It's had a nice move. And I've thought trim some, maybe to trim some and not. Not to sell out, because I think Bill Brown is in the third inning. But the reason I did in is because they're just starting to see organic growth acceleration. Last quarter, they did 3.2% organic growth, up from 1 1/2% the prior quarter, and their goal is like 2%. But I think they can continue to see acceleration because he is focusing on new product innovation and at the same time, productivity cost cutting and also improving their free cash flow so they can see better returns as well. So I still think that there's more room to go here, especially since I think people don't believe that they can continue to grow above the organic growth.
- [25:05]
Scott Wapner
For the key is what you said is the third inning. I mean, you back the chart out, then that really tells a pretty good story about where you think this, this thing can go. How long has he been in the job?
- [25:15]
Stephanie Link
A little over a year.
- [25:17]
Scott Wapner
Okay.
- [25:17]
Stephanie Link
But he has a great L3. Harris is where he was before. And when he was at that company for the time he was, the stock was up over 700%. He's an operator. He's. He can execute. He's put good people behind him, and he's building the reputation that 3M should have back in the day.
- [25:34]
Scott Wapner
All right, so we're going to take a break and we will come back and we'll discuss a call today on Netflix. Should they make that move? Should they have made that move on wbd? And what does it mean for the stock from here? One analyst weighs in on that. We will discuss. And we'll have more moves ahead. And Josh Brown's best stocks in the market coming up as well.
- [25:56]
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- [27:27]
All right, welcome back. Let's start with a call today on Netflix which was interesting at Needham reiterated by like the stock they're bearish on the WBD deal though they say Netflix loses if it wins in a jenny future. WBD is an anchor. They suggest it would put in a third 83 billion of additional value at risk they say. Brian Bielski I've heard from the others on this one already but I want to hear from you. Should they have made the offer for wbd? Do you want them to get it? How do you feel about the stock now? Josh sold 85% of his Netflix after that was announced, worried that the stock was going to be in no man's land for the foreseeable future because all of this stuff around regulatory now you got the hostel from Paramount, Skydance, et cetera.
- [28:14]
Brian Belsky
Our entire theme for communication services for the last decade has been the three cash, content and consolidation. And so I believe Warner Brothers is to right now. I'm sorry Warner Brothers was to the late 70s and early 80s what Netflix is right now. If you think about the Content. Back in the late 70s early 80s, HBO was the place to be. They had comedy, they had great movies, they had great content. Now let's fast forward in terms of Netflix comedy content. So I believe that the two companies actually make a lot of sense and we've owned Warner Brothers now for a couple years because of the cash content and the need for consolidation in that space.
- [28:56]
Scott Wapner
They say that Netflix is more global, more nimble and more tech first and has more flexibility without wbd. You dispute that? You disagree?
- [29:07]
Brian Belsky
I think it's tough. I think they're understating the importance of the content that they're getting from Warner Brothers and they're fantastic operators and managers of content and judgers judge a judgment, I'm sorry of content. I think they're going to do a lot better job running Warner Brothers than when it has been the last five years.
- [29:24]
Scott Wapner
Okay, let's talk Thermo Fisher. I'm coming back to you. Was initiated by today at Goldman represents a diversified compounder poised to benefit from near term shifts in the global supply chain. What do you think of that?
- [29:35]
Brian Belsky
Yeah, we increased our our Thermo Fisher position in the beginning of this year. Especially considering all the volatility in big Pharma. Scott. So in healthcare care we're in managed care, biotechs and Thermo Fisher in terms of instrumentation, this is a name that we've owned for a decade. Great operator, great earnings. We agree with the call.
- [29:53]
Scott Wapner
Okay, Insight reiterated market perform at Citizens. Joe, that's you.
- [29:58]
Joe Terranova
Yes, $20 billion market cap valuation. This is Biopharma with a focus on oncology. After they reported at the end of October stock had a significant run up higher. I think what we have seen with the corrective behavior over the last four weeks is nothing more than working off some of those overbought conditions. Structurally they're still in a very strong fundamental place. And I like this company as you move forward for their ability to deliver on products and consistent revenue growth.
- [30:25]
Scott Wapner
Ray J has some best picks for 26 today. Boston Scientific, DoorDash, Expand Energy First, Citizens and Shake Shack. Josh Shaq. High hopes as well for 26.
- [30:40]
Josh Brown
Yeah, this has had a really tough second half of the year. It got caught up in all this commentary about the affordability crisis and the consumer and on and on and on. But they have executed like they haven't had a bad earnings report yet, they haven't had bad guidance. So I think it's just a small cap name. 3 billion dollar market cap. It overreacts the to the downside and to the upside. But as a long term compounder, I think this thing works throughout the rest of the decade and I'm not going anywhere.
- [31:08]
Scott Wapner
All right. Well, we didn't think you were. Courtney Reagan has the headlines, of course.
- [31:13]
Stephanie Link
Got Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelinsky says Kiev and its European partners will soon be ready to present a refined peace plan to end the war with Russia to the U.S. he also said today he is fighting against giving up land to Russia as President Trump put new pressure on Ukraine to secure a deal. In an interview with Politico, Trump said Zelinsky would have to, quote, start accepting the terms. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis designated the Muslim civil rights group the Council on American Islamic Relations, or care, as a foreign terrorist organization today, alleging ties to Hamas. The group has denied the claim. This group is also challenging a similar move in Texas in court and is now expected to file a separate lawsuit against Florida. And opponents of Missouri's new congressional map that could flip a Democratic House seat submitted a petition today to take the issue to a statewide vote. Organizers say they turned in more than 300,000 signatures today, well above the 110,000 needed to suspend the new districts from taking effect until voters can weigh in. The signatures still need verification. Scott, back over to you.
- [32:16]
Scott Wapner
All right, Court.
- [32:16]
Brian Belsky
Thank you.
- [32:17]
Scott Wapner
Courtney Reagan. Coming up, Josh Brown. His best stocks in the market list a new name just hit. Tell you what it is next.
- [32:25]
Before.
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- [33:54]
Hi, welcome back. Carvana is rallying again today. We highlighted it's being added to the S&P 500, as you know. And it is updated now, the spotlight shining on it on the best stocks in the market list. I said the other day, I think it was Josh, that the story from. What was it? Mid 20, like 23. Back it up like three years. I think we showed December of 22 into 23 until. And you told me then that it was going to be added to the S&P 500 before 25 was out. I said, you're crazy. And here we are.
- [34:28]
Josh Brown
I would not have predicted that with the stock selling below $5 per share and every short seller pointing out, rightly, all of the flaws financially with the company. But the thing is, they somehow pulled it out because the consumer has shown an appreciation for the way Carvana sells cars. And like, in the end, if you have the customer, you could probably figure out a lot of your financial problems. So that's really the story where with. With Carvana. And I think this was the first one we ever wrote up for best stocks in the market list.
- [35:02]
Scott Wapner
Yeah. Cnbc Pro Mid May 12th.
- [35:04]
Josh Brown
Right. So I think, I think this was either our first one or a second one. But the point I wanted to make is when we first put a spotlight on it in May, it was in a 27% drawdown from that 2021 high. Like it was not a winner overall, but there was something about the trend that was undeniable. And now you see what's happened since the stock edits the S&P 500. And we're wrong all the time on that list. Like, we will spotlight a stock and it won't work. And we always, every time we write something, there's a stop loss. There's a risk management idea along with it. Because this game is not about batting average. It's not how many times you write. It's how much do you make when you're right and how much do you lose when you're wrong. And I think having risk management is really important so that you can take small losses and you can ride the big winners. And Carvana, I think, exemplifies that, that, that idea. So. So we brought it back out today on the list to just talk about it.
- [36:01]
Scott Wapner
I'm going to pivot you in a moment to the a new one that's on the list. But just give me something quick.
- [36:06]
Joe Terranova
On Carvana, I agree with Josh, what Josh just said. We bought it at the end of October at 3 or 5. I think you have to be careful with Carvana thinking that it's a play on rates because actually higher rates, sustained higher rates, and that's what we've had for the last two years helps this company because it pushes more people into the used car market. That's allowed them to capture significant market share from CarMax. And this company has now profitable, which is absolutely phenomenal from where they were in December of 22 at $3.50.
- [36:36]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, I mean, it says a lot about the consumer, which obviously, Josh, you continue to believe in. Which leads me to a couple other names. A new best stock is Delta airlines, added on December 3rd.
- [36:50]
Josh Brown
Yeah. So this one, I'm not ready to pull the trigger on Delta yet, but I'm going to talk about Delta and Expedia. I like the chart on Expedia a little bit better. Delta looks like it wants to break 70. You can see that 70 has been pretty substantial overhead supply or resistance, however you want to look at it at a certain point, I think this one gets through. And that's probably where I get a little bit more interested in it as a trade. Expedia, I think is viable right now. But the story that I'm telling here, very simply, the media wants for there to be some confirming evidence that the consumer is faltering. The consumer is slowing down. They're practically begging for it. When you listen to people interview the head, the head of Delta, the head of expanding media, they're like, yeah, but isn't the consumer hurting? And the reality is that they're not. On December 1st, we just had an all time record for the most passengers screened at an airport in the United States in a single day. 3.13 million people went through TSA on that single day. That is above every historic peak. The cruise lines are confirming this. The airlines are telling you no problems there either. Revpar at the hotel chains, absolutely fine. 85% or higher nationwide, every category from economy to Lux. So the companies are telling you that the consumer is not only not slowing down their travel in some categories, they're accelerating. So I like XP as the best stock in the market. I think it goes. And Delta maybe will, will keep an eye on that key resistance level.
- [38:25]
Brian Belsky
All right, Belski, you have both yeah, we own Expedia and the mid cap portfolio we run. It was either by that or bookings. Bookings was much more expensive. It's $170 billion company versus Expedia, $30 billion company. And I'll do you one better, Josh. On your chart stuff, you look at a near term chart, looks like an old fashioned cup with a handle chart about ready to break out, which I learned the business. You like that, baby? Oh, yeah. Here it comes.
- [38:50]
Scott Wapner
Guy opens his own shop and gets all technical on us now, right now, your technician using those 30 years of experience to branch out.
- [38:58]
Brian Belsky
You like that? You know, you could teach this old dog new tricks. But also too on Delta. I mean, you know, Delta by far is the best in brand, best airline in North America, if not in the world. Best operator. We've owned it for a long time. I think Ed's doing a great job there running that company and we're going to continue to own that.
- [39:15]
Scott Wapner
All right, we'll take a quick break. We'll come back. We have more committee moves ahead.
- [39:19]
All right, welcome back. More moves. Josh Brown, you bought More Toast and Zoom. Why now for both?
- [39:27]
Josh Brown
Zoom had a Zoom had a good earnings report and the stock had rallied, pulled back a little. I think it's, I think it's about to break out. It's approaching, if not breaking a one year high as we're talking. And I, I could see it running to 100 bucks. So I wanted to add a little bit, bit higher from my initial average cost. Toast has had a tough year. It started out really good. I'm not quite sure why because every, every earnings report has been great. They're going to grow earnings by something like 25% next year and the stock is negative on 20, 25. So I think the market just doesn't understand the potential here and I'm happy to take advantage of that. So I added to my position.
- [40:11]
Scott Wapner
All right, Brian, you have a lot of moves. We don't need to do all these. But just so our viewers are up to date, you sold Progressive, Union Pacific, Digital Realty Trust, Double Verify, Louisiana Pacific, Middleby News Corp. You also trim Simon Property Group and Parker Hannifin and you bought more Southern, Southern Comfort, Southern Co.
- [40:35]
Brian Belsky
Maybe some Southern, Southern Comfort today. It's cold.
- [40:37]
Scott Wapner
He's having some SOCO later on.
- [40:40]
Brian Belsky
Let's start there. Because Stephanie talked about earlier about the AI trade not only being technology. I absolutely believe that the OG utility companies is a play on AI. They own the plugs, they own the cords, they own the wires. And so I think that's a great play in Southern is in this, in the area of the United States States where we're seeing a lot of economic growth in terms of the Southeast with, with respect to progressive, we want to get a little bit more in the banks Union Pacific, we want to consolidate our industrial space a little more into Delta and more into Uber. Same thing with respect to Middleby in the small mid cap area. We want to get a little bit tighter in, in Rockwell because of that that company. Lastly News Corp, we added more into Warner Brothers and Reddit on the communication services side.
- [41:32]
Scott Wapner
Okay, we'll take a break. Come back Santoli on the other side with this midday word. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joins us with his midday word. All right, well let's get it on with the Fed, see what happens.
- [41:44]
Mike Santoli
Yeah, for sure. And you know as noted yesterday, we're kind of in the same spot as we were October 28th, which is when we set the record for the s and P500. It was the day before the Fed decided decision then we're within 1% of it. Tens are higher now though. So that's been a little bit of a different complexion. The market is pretty confident what we're going to hear. I think a non committal fed after a 25 basis point cut probably should be fine for the markets. But you know, we're in this mode where markets trying to get ahead of a cyclical reacceleration. It's visible in everything you look at whether it's transports or regional banks or some of the consumer stuff, specialty retail. And so now we're in a mode of at some point that's going to have to be proven out and we want to make sure the Fed is not speaking in such a way that they want to maybe choke that off.
- [42:28]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, I'm just, let's just go to this story now and we're going to, we're getting Leslie Picker up but I don't want to hold this anymore. JP Morgan shares. Let's, let's show that if we could. They're down about 3% or so and the move in the overall, overall market kind of follows this. Yeah, they're presenting at a Goldman Sachs financial services conference. You've seen any of these headlines?
- [42:52]
Steve Liesman
Yes.
- [42:53]
Scott Wapner
That might make the market a little bit uneven.
- [42:55]
Mike Santoli
CFO talking about the consumer feeling a bit fragile at the moment, maybe an uptick in card charge offs. There's some guidance on capital markets and investment banking revenue for the fourth quarter that none of it seems far out of line with where the street was looking for, but in a somewhat thin tape in a super strong group. I mean the universal banks have been just ripping for a while now. Clearly this kind of hits a bit of a raw nerve to, to make sure we're not getting ahead of ourselves.
- [43:22]
Scott Wapner
You know, I think the most consumer facing banks like bac, Wells, Citi, let's put up bac. You know, I wonder, you know Steph, as you, you guys can both go. But Steph, I heard from you in a while. What do you think bank of Bank America Wells is overall story?
- [43:41]
Stephanie Link
Well, I think that Wells actually had very good things to say about the consumer this morning. The CEO spoke and said the consumer is resilient. He's been saying that since the company's reported earnings. So I think Wells is definitely still a buy here. I think the asset cap story is just beginning. The profitability is improving. I use any weakness to buy that stock. Bank of America, it's really a cost cutting story story and they're doing a good job and they're about to transition away from Brian Moynihan to the next leader who's been, they are focused very much so on improving profitability and they raised targets at their analyst day a couple of weeks ago. So again, I would buy this one as well. I like the banks. I'm overweight the banks. It's the biggest overweight sector for me in my portfolio out of any sector.
- [44:22]
Scott Wapner
Just shows you, you know what I, what I said earlier. It's like you talk about the consumer. It's like, well, the consumer is great though. Consumers, Consumers bad. Consumers great. Consumers bad. Like what? Any comment on any side of the leisure moves, you know, any number of.
- [44:36]
Joe Terranova
Yeah, I think the right word is discerning. I think that's how you think about it. I bought JP Morgan personally last week. I have no problem buying more JP Morgan. I'll take the other side of this also in the context of what Marianne Lake was saying. She said that costs next year for the company are 105 billion. The street was estimating would be 101 billion. So that's a little bit higher than expected. But I still think the overall environment has really strong tailwinds in place for these Fin5, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, all of them.
- [45:06]
Scott Wapner
All right, it's Marianne Lake who's making those comments. Leslie Picker, I told you was going to join us. She is, in fact. Now that the use of the word fragile seems to be what has annoyed the market for a moment.
- [45:20]
Leslie Picker
Yeah, now you could see the stock down about 3% on some of the comments she gave. Also provided some guidance as well. Doesn't look too, too concerning. The trend line is higher expecting fourth quarter investment banking fees to be up low single digits year over year. That said, the past few quarters we've seen bigger gains than that. So maybe the market was a little disappointed there. Also, fourth quarter markets revenue today be up low teens year over year at this point. So in the previous few quarter quarters, we've seen year over year growth maybe coming in a little bit ahead of that. So perhaps suggesting a little bit of a slowdown on the capital markets side. But again, it's not concrete numbers we're getting. It's just kind of low single digits year over year and low teens year over year for those businesses. But to your point, Scott, in talking about the consumer, talking about about the fragility of the economy, talking about the potential for higher unemployment next year and what that means for the business as something that they're baking in at this point in time, it's kind of different from some of the other speakers we've heard today that have been a bit more upbeat, namely Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf, who seemed to think that, you know, the economy was doing fine and you know, maybe normalizing in bits and pieces here, but nothing too concerning and nothing necessarily deteriorating.
- [46:39]
Scott Wapner
Okay, thanks for jumping on with us and giving some more color on what this is all about. It's obviously impacted a few stocks and maybe the market overall, but we'll follow that over the next few hours and see what transpires. Mike, before I let you run, the perfect scenario for, for Powell, for the bulls is what do you think?
- [46:57]
Mike Santoli
A shrug. I think honestly, I think he's going to say he's data, data dependent, probably note some of the softness in labor demand and, you know, just no additional expressions of concern about inflation where it's, you know, it's kind of been just sitting there most of the readings. And so, you know, I think by the way, day of Fed decisions, market moves have actually really diminished in the last few months, even though they whip around a little bit. So I think the market is should be on the same page. If I had a bet, I'd be more surprised if the market sold off hard rather than expressed relief.
- [47:33]
Scott Wapner
After we get yeah, we'll watch the rate complex to maybe figure out what the equity market initially wants to do. But I'll see you in a little bit on closing belts. Mike Santoli, finals.
- [47:44]
All right, welcome back. Let's Talk about some other stocks that are in the news today. Toll Brothers had earnings yesterday. It was a miss. There's the stock. Stephanie Link, you own this name?
- [47:55]
Stephanie Link
Yeah. I mean the Stock was up 13% from the lows, recent lows. So a little bit higher expectations. I actually think the core numbers were a bit better than expected. Orders were down, but down less. Down 2% versus down 7. Margins actually beat it was the guy. They were conservative. They should be conservative. There's a lot of unknowns with regards to interest rates but I think they're managing as best they can on further weakness. I would be a buyer and also Dr. Horton as well.
- [48:18]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, I mean higher rates just continue to hurt this.
- [48:22]
Stephanie Link
Exactly.
- [48:23]
Scott Wapner
Trade.
- [48:23]
Stephanie Link
Exactly. And I don't we're not going to get clarity on that until a couple of meetings with the Fed and that sort of thing.
- [48:29]
Scott Wapner
But I know it's like you expect them to cut and then rates continue to, to back up. Right. It hurts this trade.
- [48:35]
Stephanie Link
Well, rates continue to back up for in my mind a good reason because growth is better than expected. But the Fed. Look, if you get hassle in you're going to see rate cuts. You will. And I think eventually we have this massive pent up demand from a lot of different cohorts, not just millennials. The high end is actually the best position right now. And that's why I like Toll.
- [48:54]
Scott Wapner
Okay, what's your final IBM.
- [48:56]
Stephanie Link
I love the acquisition that Arvind is doing.
- [48:59]
Scott Wapner
Josh Brown final trade.
- [49:02]
Josh Brown
Toast.
- [49:04]
Scott Wapner
Okay, there it is. Up 1% today.
- [49:06]
Brian Belsky
Mr. Belsky BLD top builder.
- [49:10]
Scott Wapner
Thank you.
- [49:10]
Brian Belsky
You're welcome.
- [49:11]
Scott Wapner
Joe Terranova Applovins back.
- [49:13]
Joe Terranova
Scott. It is make a. It's going to make a run towards the all time intraday high which is September, which is what, 745.
- [49:21]
Scott Wapner
All right, like that. All right, we'll see. It's up 4% today. That's pretty good. By the way, Home Depot had weaker than expected earnings growth guide so we'll follow that one too.
- [49:31]
You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [49:43]
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer.
- [50:25]
On Products Advertiser
Before the trophy and bragging rights are rightfully yours. Before your sleeper turns in a season no one saw coming, before stats and projections turn into points on the board and your lineup falls perfectly into place, you flip the lid on a can of on nicotine pouches. And as you make your first pick, you know this is the season where fantasy's going to surpass reality. It's on. Products for tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. Warning. This product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical.