
Frank Holland and the Investment Committee debate China Trade Tensions and what it means for the market and your money. Plus, the desk discuss the AI sector and whether it's in a bubble. And later, we hit the latest Calls of the Day. Investment Committee Disclosures
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Julia Boorstin
What does it mean to live a rich life? It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes and everything in between. With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and of life, your Edward Jones financial advisor will be there to help you move ahead with confidence. Because with all you've done to find your rich, we'll do all we can to help you keep enjoying it. EDWARD Jones Member, sipc, the heaviest metal.
Frank Holland
Credit card of all time, rumored to be one of only 18 in existence, plated with the very same tungsten that forged the International Space Station and wielded at business dinners like a samurai sword. It's a classic corporate power move, but the real power move, having end to end visibility on your most critical shipments. FedEx, the new power move. I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I am Frank Holland in for the judge. Scott Wapner, front and center at this hour, the state of stocks as earnings season ramps up. I don't think Carl and Leslie know their mics are still on, but we're just going to keep going on with this show. The investment committee is standing by without their position right now. Joining me for the hour, well, Carl and Leslie still, but we also have Terranova, Stephanie Link, Liz Thomas and Jim Leventhal. I think we fixed the Mike issue. Now let's do a quick check on the market. You can see here in the green across the board, but we're well off of our highs of earlier. Very important to note right now, the Russell is up about three quarters of 1%, on pace for another record high. The S and P up just under a half a percent. The NASDAQ just under three quarters of 1%. The Dow up just about a quarter of 1%. So with all that, now we got the mics fixed for sure. Don't hear them over there. I just want to get your take, Joe. Cooking oil never knew it was that big of a deal. At least it was yesterday. Why do you think the markets shrugged that off, which really is broader trade tensions. It's not cooking oil, it's just broader trade tensions. Why are they shrugging it off today, do you think? The fact that Jay Powell seemed to strike a bit of a dovish tone yesterday? Is that helping the markets? Even though you've consistently said this market doesn't need rate cuts?
Joe
So that helped the market yesterday. The Cooking oil, okay, that's not a bad thing for the market. But it's about the fin5. It's what they delivered. It's historic. Now you can make the argument that it's backward looking but still in a lot of the guidance we didn't hear tangible evidence that there's going to be a reversal in the earnings. We heard what we all feel cautious, thanks a degree of anxiety about what might be ahead in 2026, about stretch valuations. But lastly look at price action for the Fed 5. Each one of these five money center banks, they delivered their earning, they spoke to the market and the analyst community. And where is price subsequent to that? Has price continued post earnings to decline in a good news bad price action formation? No, it has not. You could look at J.P. morgan and say, okay, you didn't get any follow through. You could look at Goldman Sachs and say you didn't get any follow through to the upside, but more importantly you didn't get a significant breakdown. And then, oh, by the way, there's Morgan Stanley, there's Bank of America, there's Citi, and there is the remarkable historic earnings in the case of Morgan Stanley that was delivered today. And it's universal, it's wealth management, its trading revenue, its investment banking. So sitting here having a long standing overweight to the financial sector, I'm not particularly sure if the market's given me evidence to suggest it's time to reduce that in a dramatic fashion.
Frank Holland
All right, to your point, I believe we have a wall beats across the board for all the financials that reported so far. You mentioned the names, bank of America, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley. Steph, I want to come over to you. I thought today Morgan Stanley's report where we saw trading revenues, a very big jump up 35% was very notable. A lot of that's due to some of the economic uncertainty we've had due to trade and tariffs, inflation, a number of other things, but still a very great report going ahead. Do you see the banks continuing this kind of performance and continuing to power the markets as they are today?
Stephanie Link
Absolutely. I really think that they are benefiting from a lot of different things. Net interest income, net interest rates, margin. The guidance from just about every one of them was higher for the fourth quarter and higher for 2026. We haven't had a cycle where net interest income has been higher. We haven't had it in many, many years. So, so there's that, there's deregulation that will help the capital levels, that will lead to better loan growth. And in addition to higher buybacks and dividends, they, the 5, the Fab 6 actually have $192 billion of buybacks still left on what they announced last quarter. So I think you're going to see more of that as well. And so of course, capital markets and M and A, that also helps. The most impressive number to me at Morgan Stanley, R.O. t.C. At 24%. That was even better than J.P. morgan. Best in breed company in the bank's sector. Morgan Stanley is back by far, but across the board, very encouraged about what we learned about the consumer, about credit, about delinquencies. The delinquency rates are running in the twos, not even close to, you know, you know, you hear the numbers are inching higher, not even close to distressed levels. So I like them a lot.
Frank Holland
All right, Jim, want to come over to you. Citibank, another pretty strong report there. It really seems like consumer resilience, that seems to be the theme of this banking earnings season. That's obviously a very good sign for the economy. Is that also a great sign for the market, the fact that we're seeing a strong consumer? And in your mind, what parts of the market does that hold up the best? Obviously, financials are getting a boost from a stronger consumer, but what other parts?
Jim Leventhal
Okay, so Citigroup was a very good earnings report and it was sort of across the board, all business lines, including consumer, which is where you started your question, Frank. But it certainly included M and A activity, IPO trading, you name it. You know, as far as where we go from here, I said this to you two days ago, Frank. I'm going to stay on, on target with this, that I do think we have to watch credit spreads now. I feel like, you know, I'm early on this and want to be wrong. Believe me, I want to be wrong in terms of starting to turn my attention towards credit spreads. I'm looking at the bank of America High Yield Option Adjusted Spread index right now, and it's up about 35 basis points over the last two weeks. Now we know why and frankly, it would be inappropriate if it weren't up a little bit. It's on the back of this First Brands and Tricolor News, which Jamie Dimon was talking about. And I think he used the right analogy. Look, when you turn on the lights in the kitchen late at night and you see a cockroach, that's not the only one that you're going to see. So all I'm saying here is things look very good in the banking reports, but we have to keep an eye on what the future holds, particularly with underwriting standards. It will show first in high yield spreads.
Frank Holland
Jim, by the way, I know you said you want to be wrong. Well, you're a little bit wrong because I remember on Monday. Let's go back to Monday.
Jim Leventhal
No, fine, I'll take it.
Frank Holland
We talked about this and I asked you guys because I've been talking some private credit people, are we going to hear some signs of concern about the credit markets in these bank earnings? You guys said, no, we're not going to hear it. And then now you're referring to that Jamie Dimon, that's not an original line. You know what?
Jim Leventhal
I know, but you know what road? Honestly, as much as I want to be wrong, you're not quite giving me comfort, Frank, because what you're saying is everybody's saying, get out of here. Don't worry about it. I kind of. Look, I'm old enough to have heard that before and I'm just telling you I'm going to watch it.
Frank Holland
All right, Joe, any change of heart about what we. After what we heard from big bank CEOs, pretty much all of them address the credit issues out there right now, either directly or indirectly related to First Brands and Tricolor.
Joe
I think there's facts and I think there's feelings, and I think a lot of people share the same feel towards where we are. You look at every asset class and you can make the strong argument that valuations are full. So at some point at coming up on 100 trading days without a 5% correction, you're going to see the elevated volatility, you're going to see the price correction. I just believe it's a 2026 event. You know, everyone's talking about the breakout in the Russell 2000, the IWM. Mike Santoli did a phenomenal job on the network within the last hour, really talking about what the composition is for the IWM and how much that has changed to being even more defined as less quality and more junk. What does it mean, though, that it's breaking out? I think it means it. It validates that there is in place this bullish sentiment that is probably going to be well entrenched through the remainder of the year. And I think it means that you will get that chase for performance. The chase for performance in 25 ultimately will happen. So I think going back to your initial question, everyone feels the same thing. Yeah, we understand where we are, but then there's the reality of investing. And show me the tangible evidence that Says right now I need to move away from my equity holdings. I need to move, move in cash. Because that's been a fool's game over the last several years that so many have pontificated about.
Stephanie Link
You don't fight the Fed and the Fed yesterday said they're going to cut probably two times the rest of this year and they're getting rid of Kutty. You don't fight that. That is very, very powerful. You have $7 trillion of cash on the sidelines in money market funds. So you have the fourth quarter which is seasonally the strongest of the year. You do not fade this rally. You actually do chase and only 30% of portfolio managers are beating their benchmark. That's why you're going to see the.
Frank Holland
And you're talking about the broader rally. I want to go back to the small caps for a minute since Joe brought them up. Liz, you were on a couple of weeks ago and you talked about small caps being a catch up trade. Do you still see it that way with they're really on pace for a second all time high in two days right now and we're seeing part of the other equity, the other major indices, I should say pulling back a bit and seeing a lot of volatility.
Liz Thomas
So yeah. And actually I think that was a little bit of a spat between Gemini, the small cap thing, whether they were going to outperform or if it was just a catch up to large cap. So what I talked about then was if we are in a Fed cutting cycle, that is an adjustment cutting cycle, meaning they're just cutting to get back to neutral. They're not cutting because there's a recession or some problem that they're trying to save us from. Typically large caps actually do better in that scenario. Small caps tend to outperform coming out of a major drawdown, coming out of a recession this period because small caps have just recently hit a new all time high and that was the first one since 2021. They are catching up. Right. The S and P right now is that I don't even know how many all time highs this year. More than 30 I believe.
Frank Holland
I believe yeah, a few dozen.
Liz Thomas
So they're catching up to that performance and there are a few tailwinds. I know that there are a lot of small caps that are non profitable and those have been the ones that are leading this small cap rally. But the tailwinds are that as Steph mentioned, financial conditions are continuing to loosen. That's probably not going to slow down especially if you the administration gets what they want with the seats on the Board of Governors next year the board of governors puts the other governors in place.
Stephanie Link
Right?
Liz Thomas
The other, all of the regional Fed chairs in place. If that all is set up the way that they want it to, we're looking at a very dovish fed in 2026. Not to mention as we get clarity on tariffs, I mean small caps are kind of insulated from that, so they're not feeling as much volatility on all of this geopolitical news. So there are good tailwinds for small caps going into that. But I do maintain it is still a catch up trade for what large caps have already done.
Joe
This has been building over the last several weeks where you see the momentum for the IWM and the Russell 2000 beginning to intensify, get more and more bullish. One of the ways that I have talked on the air about being able to play that without directly saying, okay, I'm going to own the IWM is to own the xbi. And as I'm talking, if we could show a chart of the XBI SPI and maybe pull the lens out over the last three years, you're looking at a multi year breakout. This morning at 5am, I am watching you with our good friend Jason Snipe.
Frank Holland
Absolutely.
Joe
And Jason is talking about in 2026, the IBB. That is another ETF that plays the biotech breakout as well. So I think if you believe that what we're seeing in the IWM is something that is credible and has a multi month catalyst behind it, but yet you're concerned about owning the iwm, here's a way to play it. Play it through the sbi, play it through biotech, play it through, as Jason said, the ibb, because it is very clear to me that we have a multi year breakout occurring.
Stephanie Link
You can play it in cyclicals as well. They all trade very similarly in terms of the factor positioning. That's financials, that's industrials, that's metal, metals, materials and that sort of thing.
Frank Holland
To your point, our Sarah Isaac great interview with Stephen Myron earlier. He said, and I'm going to take him at his word that there's a consensus on what the neutral rate is. It's just merely the speed that they get there. So isn't that a very dovish sign, a very encouraging sign for someone who wants to play the cyclical trade and even who wants to ride the small caps for quite a bit longer?
Liz Thomas
I mean, yeah, yes, but the process matters, right? The path that they get there matters. So back to biotech. Even as as a point for into 2026 you've got tailwinds not just in small caps but you have to go even up the market cap spectrum from there into the mid cap space. You could take pharma and biotech in the mid cap space and regional banks and look at a really bullish picture for all of those going into 2026. If we have regulations that roll back even further, I would expect M and A activity to pick up in that financial sector and some of those mid cap stocks to benefit. Health care going into 2026 I think is still a really good place to be. I've been pounding the table about health care all year and have looked wrong and have been wrong. It's starting to perk up now. But I think into 2026 it continues to be a really strong spot. Getting to neutral. There are people that want to get there by March, right? There are people that might want to get there by January. I don't think that it is responsible to do it too quickly especially without knowing the data and given all of the data delays that we're in right now. I think getting there in a cautious way and a prudent way is a better way to do it. I'm also not convinced that there is consensus around where neutral is.
Frank Holland
Okay, so you're saying that Steven, Myron, he may be really speaking his views, maybe some conversations he's had, but there's not a true consensus within that group.
Liz Thomas
Yeah, I don't know that there's consensus there. Especially as we get more inflation data and understand what's going on with tariffs.
Stephanie Link
We're growing 3, we're growing 3.8% in GDP. That's why you want to own cyclicals. I don't care where the neutral rate is. And you have a Fed that's actually lowering rates. We don't know the speed but they are lowering. And that's also very positive for the overall cyclical trade especially into the end of the year.
Joe
Steph, cyclicals, industrials, financials and large cap. They've been working for the better part of 2025. When you say own the cyclicals in lieu of maybe the iwm, do you want to trade down in the equity size class and try and find financials and industrials at a small cap or just stay high up at large cap?
Stephanie Link
I stay high up at large cap. We just got great earnings from the banks. We're going to get great earnings from the industrials. Data center is powering the whole industrial trade. In fact that's half of the 3.8% GDP growth is the whole AI data center grid power trade. That's not, you know, you're in like second and third inning in that and that's why you want to just stay with them.
Frank Holland
You know speaking of industrials materials really tied to capex spending. Speaking of Barclays is in. The capex boom has probably peaked in the first half of this year. Christina Parsonnevolis has much more on that story. Christina?
Christina Parsonnevolis
Frank well Barclays research is really just throwing cold water on AI investment, shall I say hype. Their analysis shows AI related spending boosted US GDP growth by about 1 percentage point in the first half of 2025. And yes, that would include open air spending because it goes into the same buckets. But that contrib according to them is set to peak this year and fade rapidly. The five largest hyperscalers are projected to increase capital expenditures by roughly 30% through 2027 to 510 billion. We've talked about this before. Most people know this. That does sound massive, no doubt, but it represents a major deceleration from the 71% jump in 2025. When you adjust for inflation, the slowdown is even sharper. Barclays argues the market is overestimating the aggregate impact. Total US business investment runs trillion dollars annually. So even hundreds of billions of dollars from tech giants is still relatively small. Dare I say that most of the growth momentum though is already behind us according to the report on productivity gains. The report is equally skeptical. Permanently lifting productivity growth by just 1 percentage point would require the entire trajectory of business investment to increase by about 20%. We last saw that kind of sustained spending in the 1990s.com boom. The bottom line from this report is that spending levels are no doubt impressive. But growth rates drive gdp. Those rates are decelerating fast.
Stephanie Link
Frank.
Frank Holland
Christina, very interesting note actually that analyst is going to be on CNBC later today at 2:00pm on Power Lunch to talk a lot more about that note. Christina, Parts Analyst thank you very much for that. I want to toss it around to you guys. Does it matter to the market if the AI Capex boom is slowing down in the back half of the year? Does it matter to the to the market when a lot of this is based on AI, you know, software, other things like that? Do we need that capex boom stuff? I'm going to turn over to you because we're just talking about materials. Does it matter? Do we need that to continue and still accelerate so many deals being announced to move the S and P higher.
Stephanie Link
I mean I think that 400 billion from the hyperscalers this year is peak for sure. I mean you're not going to grow that level every year. But I think you're going to see a compound annual growth rate in a Capex spend of something like 25% between now and 2030. And what I find comfort in is it's not just the hyperscalers that are spending on CapEx, it's the utility companies. They're going to spend $80 billion this year on a I, the grid power, that kind of thing. Industrials are going to spend $200 billion on a I, on data centers, grid power, the whole thing. So what I'm encouraged about is it's many, many different industries that are seeing the demand and seeing the need to spend. And I've talked, we've talked about this before when you talk to chief technology officers, they're spending on two things and they have said to me, many of them have said to me double digits between now and 2030 on AI because they're still learning about it and cybersecurity because they can't afford to wake up and lose their business. So those are the two areas that I remain very bullish on. Does the market need this, these kinds of levels of spend to grow higher? I don't think so because you're seeing this broad, very broad based growth. Yeah.
Frank Holland
Speaking of, we do have some other announcements and you mentioned a wide variety of companies spending BlackRock, Nvidia and Xai taking over a $40 billion data center. We also had Microsoft strike a deal with a startup called Inscale for $14 billion. That company pushing for an IPO. So we are seeing money being spent outside of just simply capex for, for rocks in some cases. In this case it's energy. Joe, you're nodding on this one that you own.
Joe
It's a utility story and you mentioned Steph's done a phenomenal job while you're talking about it as well. But throughout 2025 it's been a place that the ETF has been in. Whether it's Vertif Steph, I think you're there as well. Vistra Constellation Energy today, I believe traded to a new all time high. A name we don't own, which we're seeing very strong momentum is Duke Energy. That gives you the electricity assets. So the thematic investment and the thematic investing elements surrounding utilities I think is very real. And I think if you're sitting with a portfolio where you have 3% correlated to what the energy sector weighting is in the S and P and you're waiting for E&Ps to wake up. Why not look in the direction of utilities? Because you have oil sub $60 and this is an administration that very clearly believes in a low energy price and is allowing for a lot of offshore drilling. I think utilities should act as the replacement there. And some of the names I mentioned are proving confirmation of that.
Frank Holland
So by the way, as we kind of shift the conversation away from chips for once when we're talking about by the way announcement, we're going to show an ARM chart right here. An announcement that matter is tapping ARM holdings to power AI for face, Facebook and Instagram. Take a look. ARM shares, they're up just about 2% right now. This just crossing right now. So the second we move away from chips and all that, of course there's another announcement. We continue to see these series of announcements. Jim, I want to come over to you. You own Nvidia. Is this starting to get concerning that we're seeing these, these announcements related to chips involving so many other companies outside of Nvidia, whether it be amd, Broadcom, a lot of other names seem to be getting in the mix and it seems like just, just a few months ago we were talking about this incredible moat that Nvidia had.
Jim Leventhal
Well, the simplest answer to that is that the backlog for the chips is kind of off the charts. So I'm not really worried about that. If I were a customer of Nvidia or a prospective customer, I would look at it and say I've got to go somewhere else to get chips if I want to get them in the near term. So I'm really not worried about Nvidia from a fundamental point of view, nor am I from a technical point of view. And not to not to rehash what we were talking about 10 minutes ago, but I do believe Joe is right and everybody else that the rally is going to continue through year end. Whatever concerns I may have have. I think there's just going to be the chase for performance and that's going to center on Nvidia. That is the bellwether of the bellwether trade, which is the artificial intelligence trade.
Frank Holland
Yeah. But we had Brad Gerstner on our air earlier on Squawk Box. He's saying if it is going to compound over the next three to four years. Joe, you also own this name as well. Agree with that take to this, this, this company, due to backlog or other issues, has a very Long Runway.
Joe
I would agree with that. Look, Brad Gerstner knows far more more about technology spending than I ever will. So I will. I'll take Brad at what he's suggesting on air. But it's very clear to me just from the standpoint of here you sit October 15th, and if I'm sharing with the viewers that I think a chase for performance is going to be underway through the remainder of the year, I find it very difficult to believe that the semis are not going to participate that and continue to do what they have done, which is rallied nearly 85% off of the April lows link.
Frank Holland
You also own Broadcom. Do you see Broadcom continue to participate in some of this rally or is it becoming less of a basket of stocks that you want to look at like the SMH and more individual winners?
Stephanie Link
I mean, I like Broadcom. I've liked Broadcom for five years. I'm not crazy about the valuation at this moment in time. But they think for them by 2028 can be $100 billion opportunity for them them and I like their diversification. I like that they have software and they have the apiece, they have the non piece, they have the infrastructure piece and they last quarter just crushed it. They beat on across the board and I think they're going to continue to do that. And they announced their fourth customer in custom ASICS that they think is a $10 billion opportunity for them. So I think they're a winner. What I think is really interesting is it's up 107% in the past year and Nvidia is only up 37%.
Frank Holland
Yeah. CEO Hock Tan also seems to know how to navigate not only AI, but the administration, some trade issues and everything else. Seems to be a very sophisticated operator in the current landscape. Liz, I want to come over to you. Chips are also a cyclical area. Do you believe this rally can continue and that investor confidence can stand these chips? We just saw that report from Christina Parts and Evolis that the capex boom may have peaked. Wouldn't that kind of be a read in the chips as well?
Liz Thomas
I think the rally can continue at least through year end and the, the growth boom maybe has peaked. But capex is going to continue and there's going to be announcements about them continuing to spend just because of how they've been rewarded in the market for doing so. I think what can happen next year is if we start to hear announcements that the revenue is actually coming through on all of that spending. What we're looking for as investors is justification of those valuations and so far that's been justified by the capex spending. By looking out into the future, here's how things are going to go. If we start hearing next year that the rubber has hit the road, revenue is actually being generated, the use cases are real, and it's benefiting companies across a number of sectors, then that justifies those valuations as well. So I do think chips can continue to do well here, especially for the Chase into the end of the year. I still think software has opportunity. Cyber stocks have been something to talk about this year for sure. That's a long term trade for me. That's something that I don't think the demand for is going away anytime soon, if ever. But I think software can benefit as we shift from capex spending into real material benefits of AI.
Frank Holland
Well, another announcement today as we just mentioned, ARM being tapped by Meta to power AI on Facebook and Instagram. All right, coming up here on Halftime, our calls of the day. Steph link with the big industrial winners getting a cut to a single sell rating today. Plus Progressive hitting a 52 week low after its earnings. Joe's in that name. We're gonna get his reaction to the print. Halftime's coming back in just two minutes. Big game today and no way to watch it. Sling lets you do that with day pass. Get instant access to live college football starting at just $4.99. One day pass gives you 24 hours of non stop action on ESPN and ESPN too. Want SEC or ACC network too? Just add sports extra for a buck. No contracts, no hassle, just pure unfiltered game day. Sling lets you do that. Visit sling.com to learn more.
Joe
What made you confident that you could.
Liz Thomas
Do something that hadn't been done before?
Christina Parsonnevolis
I have no fear of failure.
Julia Boorstin
Trailblazing women, changing the game.
Liz Thomas
One of my favorite pieces of advice. Think about what your boss's boss needs.
Stephanie Link
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
Liz Thomas
It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just got to think big to accomplish big things.
Julia Boorstin
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday. Wherever you get your podcasts.
Frank Holland
And welcome back to the Halftime Report. Let's hit some stocks on the move. Let's start with Progressive hitting a new 52 week low after missing on earnings. Joe, you own this one and The Joe T ETF shares down about six and a half percent.
Joe
We rebalance on October 31st. Trick or treat. As it relates to the insurance industry. We've been there for several years. I've talked over the last several months. We're seeing the breakdown, we're seeing the loss of pricing power. Progressive did not deliver here. This is a mess on every front. And we look at all the names that we own, whether it's Chubb, Allstate, Travelers, Hartford Insurance, collectively, there's a lot of them in the etf. Progressive is clearly the one that has the worst momentum. We'll see what happens at the end of the month.
Frank Holland
Yeah, this is definitely not a treat for Progressive investors like yourself. Down about six and a half percent. I want to move on to another call. Guggenheim initiates DoorDash and Uber Link. I'm going to start with you. You own Uber. DoorDash initiated with a buy 330 price target, about a 20% upside from where it's trading right now.
Stephanie Link
Yeah, I mean it's trading at 27 times earnings. And I think they can grow total revenue revenues of 15% for the next three years, 16% to gross a profit and earnings of 20 to 25%. They're also buying back 9% of their float. And this is a verb.
Frank Holland
You want to own verbs, Joe, you own both of them. Doordash, I think they're both verbs, don't you? Doordash, food. And you're getting.
Stephanie Link
Absolutely.
Frank Holland
I do want to ask though, we're talking about the resilience, the consumer, but oftentimes we're talking about the high end consumer. These are two names that really relate lie on middle class consumers, low end consumers. I mean just about everybody. Doordashes and Ubers.
Joe
All right, let me spend more time on Dash and kind of compensate for what I just had to endure with Progressive. This has been my final trade multiple times. This is a stock that is clearly a growth stock. This is a stock that is. Is breaking out. It has now planted itself in Western Europe and the Middle east with the acquisition of Deliveroo. So you're seeing the international expansion. Pull up a chart of. Of Domino's. Domino's has been awful so far in 2025. But what did you hear from Domino's on their earnings conference call talking about the last quarter being particularly strong because in April they did what they developed a partnership with Dash. So yes, it is a verb. They have a dominance of market share in terms of delivery. We've owned it for some time, very happily and I think it continues to move higher.
Frank Holland
Also in the pizza space, Papa John's being eyed for a take Private deal by Apollo. It's all kind of interesting stuff there. One More. Delta downgraded to hold from buy at cfr. This is ahead of United earnings. But Jim, I'm going to come over to you. You own Delta.
Jim Leventhal
I own it. I like it. I understand the rationale of the analyst here, which is assigning roughly a nine times multiple on next 12 months earnings. That's okay.
Stephanie Link
Okay.
Jim Leventhal
I can understand why they do that. But I'll make this case that earnings are probably going to come in better than expected. They have for quite some time. And Ed Bastian, the CEO was quite positive last week. I'll also make this somewhat bold claim that I think nine times is the wrong multiple for a company that is rapidly delevering its balance sheet. Nine times applies to a traditional airline that has a lot of debt on its balance sheet. By the end of next year, Delta is going to have about half what it had three years ago in terms of net debt.
Frank Holland
All right, moving on. One more name. I said one more. We got one more after that. This is kind of following up on the conversation you and I were having. Length. GE Vernova downgraded to sell from neutral at Rothschild and Redburn. You own this name. It was also reiterated at neutral by Mizuho, but they did raise their price target 677, up from 670.
Stephanie Link
Well, the downgrade was a neutral to a sell. The stock's up 168% in the past year and they're right in the cross current sense of power. You want to be involved in power one way or the other. It's not cheap. But I do think the margins are depressed. I think the organic growth rate is actually depressed. So I think you're almost at like trough, like earnings right now. And I think you're going to see upside. So I wouldn't get off. But I understand like you want to take some profits in it. Take some profits in it. But the guy's been wrong. Having a neutral on it over the.
Frank Holland
Last year up more than 130% but still pulling back about 2 1/2% right now. All right, with that, let's get to the headlines. Once again. We're going to see our Christina parts and evolence.
Christina Parsonnevolis
Christina, I'm back. And this time more than a dozen airports nationwide will not display a security checkpoint video of Homeland Security Secretary Christine Noem, who is blaming Democrats for the government shutdown. In the video, representatives for the airports, which include major airports in the New York metro area, say the video is partisan and violates the Hatch Act, a law that forbids political activities for federal workers. In response to the criticism, the Department of Homeland Security, of course, repeated the secretary's message in the video. Ukraine will need up to $20 billion next year to purchase U.S. weapons through a NATO program. At a defense summit today, the country's defense minister said Ukraine still needs more long range artillery as it continues to fight Russian troops groups. Germany has already pledged to spend $500 million on a US weapons package for Ukraine. And Nvidia's new personal AI supercomputer goes on sale today. The DGX Spark is what they claim powerful enough to let users work on complex AI models but also small enough to fit on your desk. It costs just under $4,000 for everyone.
Stephanie Link
Wondering to buy one.
Robert Frank
Frank.
Frank Holland
All right, Christina, Parts and Evelyn, thank you very much. Good to see you again. All right. Coming up next here on halftime, big Family Office bets. We're tracking where tech billionaires are putting their money to work in this market. We're back right after this quick break.
Joe
What made you confident that you could.
Liz Thomas
Do something that hadn't been done before?
Christina Parsonnevolis
I have no fear of failure.
Julia Boorstin
Trailblazing women, changing the game.
Liz Thomas
One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
Stephanie Link
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
Liz Thomas
It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just got to think big to accomplish big things.
Julia Boorstin
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.
Frank Holland
Welcome back to halftime. Family offices are making some big private market bets in a very in a few very key sectors. CNBC wealth editor Robert Frank is following the money for for us on that story. Robert, good afternoon. Always good to see you.
Robert Frank
Frank, Great to see you. Well, family offices had a lot of deals in the third quarter all about AI, biotech and energy. But if you look at direct deals by family offices, startups fell by 46% in the quarter compared to a year ago. That's according to exclusive data from Fintrix. Now There are only 169 investments recorded in the quarter. The tech billionaires, as you mentioned, well, they are leading the way. Peter Thiel's family office made sense seven investments in the quarter. He was part of a $100 million funding round for Descartes, that's an Israeli AI firm that was founded just two years ago. Now valued at $3 billion. Thiel also invested in a German drone maker, a gene therapy startup, and Varda Space, which is working to develop medicines in space. Michael Dell was very active with his family office, investing in Austin based Harbor Health, that's a clinic and health insurance company. Eric Schmidt invested in Commonwealth Fusion, that's an energy company. Schmidt also investing alongside Jeff Bezos and Nvidia in a $300 million seed round of Periodic Labs. That's a company that aims to create AI scientists that can run robot labs to create new materials. Now for more family office news, where they're putting their money and including highlights from our Family Office Roundtable dinner last week, you can sign up for the Inside wealth newsletter out tomorrow morning@cbc.com inside wealth.
Frank Holland
Frank, Robert Frank, thank you very much. Always good to see you. Appreciate that one. I want to focus, Joe, on the energy part of this whole story. You have a lot of energy ownership. What are your thoughts about these investments by these tech billionaires into the energy space? We've heard a lot of people talk about the fact that there's not enough energy in the US Grid to actually power all these projects, at least not right now.
Joe
Okay, so, so I've got a few thoughts on this. First of all, listening to all of that, it's the very reason why we've heard so much in 2025 about the retail community being able to have access to investing in these private markets because you see all of those investments and you say to yourself, wow, that sounds like a compelling investment. Sounds very thoughtful. These are successful investors. I want in on that. So I am not one that believes, no, we should deny the access. We should do it in a very judicious and thoughtful way to give the retail community that. Now, when you look at the private markets, you could make a very clear argument that private equity and private credit, if you're going to say public equity is at a rich valuation, you could make the same claim for private equity, for private equity and for private credit, you could say the valuation is somewhat full. We need some form of relief in terms of positioning and sentiment that is fair. I will tell you that there is right now a, an appetite, a desire to invest in private infrastructure. And that's where when you mention those energy names, I think mostly about I think there is private secondaries and private infrastructure. And I think the private sector, private infrastructure is very exciting because you're talking about an infrastructure that's antiquated, that needs to be modernized and it needs the capital to do it. And we know that the government doesn't have the capital. The municipalities, they don't have the capital without raising taxes to fund it. So it's going to come from the private sector and you want in on that.
Frank Holland
What do you make of these investments? I mean these are tech billionaires, we're talking Microsoft, Michael Dell, other really bright investors. And some of the areas that they're also looking at is biotech, which is very interesting, interest rate sensitive sector as well. What do you make of their focus on that? Michael Dell in particular, Harbor Health, Jeff Bezos and Eric Schmidt looking at periodic labs.
Liz Thomas
I like the investments in biotech, I like the investments in health care in general. First of all, this year in health care has been defined by a lot of headwinds. There were a lot of policy headwinds. The sector needed to work through that. Those headwinds are not gone, but the skies are clearing a bit and I think they will continue to clear into 2026. Also, if I'm an investor, a tech billionaire, which I am very much not, but if I were probably overweighted in a lot of high valuation growth names and looking to diversify my growth exposure, biotech is a great place to do that. And the valuation is much more attractive whether it's it's private or public, much more attractive than what you're finding in the growth space in technology right now, especially if you're trying to put new money to work. So I think that's probably a trade off that a lot of investors are going to make as we move through the end of the year and into 2026.
Frank Holland
And if you go back a few months ago, these are obviously family office investments in the health care. But you saw Berkshire Hathaway invest in UNH along with Appaloosa and I believe Michael Burry as well. So we have seen some very noble investors decide that this is the time to get in to the health care space. All right, coming up here on Halftime Shopping for Opportunity. The committee breaks down their top retail plays with the sector having its best week since May. Don't go anywhere. More halftime coming up. All right, welcome back. The XRT retail ETF is having its best week since May. Right now it's up over half a percent and it's still on track to snap a five month win streak. Still, even with these this kind of performance, Joe, I'm going to start off with you. You own Walmart, Costco and tjx all initiated as a buy at btig. Also Walmart today announcing a partnership with Open Air. Seems like we can't get away from the theme.
Joe
So TJX Consumer Discretionary. Steph, I don't know if you're in that name.
Stephanie Link
I'm not anymore.
Joe
Okay. I know you've talked about in the past. We've got some strong momentum in it. Pull back that chart if you can over the last several years. You'll see that it's breaking out. You see that off price is doing particularly well. The variety of different stores that they have Walmart, they yesterday announced an agreement with Open AI. This goes to the ability for the consumer to actually go on Chat GPT and make purchases. There'll be a buy button. Your Walmart account, your Sam's Club account will be linked to Chat GPT. I think this is where we're going when we think about Agentic AI. So for Walmart, I know the challenges just thinking about the valuation. Well, you kind of have to forgive the valuation, get past it and see what they're doing here in terms of the growth. Costco the one is troubling to me. Costco has not delivered. Costco has not delivered. In terms of price and in terms of the fundamentals as reflected in earnings, the last earnings report was clearly disappointing. So we'll take a look at the.
Frank Holland
End of the month on that October 31st trick or treat, rebalance, see what happens. Link coming over to you, looking through your names actually down for the year. I'm talking about Target and Deckers. Let's start with Target first. Not sure if it's quite a turnaround, but it's certainly a CEO change. How do you see that company?
Stephanie Link
It's a long term turnaround. It's been a very frustrating stock. I do like the new CEO a lot. He's been a lifer at Target. I think he can fix some things quicker than if they got something from the outside. But I actually also think they needed someone from the outside. They needed in new blood. So this is a turnaround story. It's very, very cheap stock at 11 times earnings that yields 5%. But it's a small position at this point in time. I'm not adding to it. I really have to. It's kind of like a show me story at this point.
Frank Holland
You know, I question why it's. Well, whether or not it's a turnaround because Brian Cornell just went from CEO to executive chair and as you mentioned, the new CEO is a lifer there at the company. So it was really a turnaround if the same people are just moving in different seats.
Stephanie Link
Yeah, because Brian Cornell didn't get it done. So now we have to have someone in there that has to get it done. But it's a show me story. We have to see if he can get it done. But I do Think since he knows the company well because he's been a lifer there that he can put in change quicker than someone that would have come from the outside.
Frank Holland
All right, Liz, how are you viewing the retail sector again? We continue to have questions about the labor market, about consumers. Outside of the high end, how are you just viewing the this sector in general?
Liz Thomas
Yeah, well normally I would key off of retail data that we are supposed to get tomorrow but we will likely not get because of the shutdown. So we have to queue off of what's going to happen with earnings. I think that that consumers are still feeling the pressure on price. We know that companies have passed some of that through and prices continue to rise and they've had to make these trade offs between goods and services going into a holiday spending season. I think that could be an interesting conundrum for consumers. So I actually think some of these low price providers, low price retailers can do really well through the holiday shopping season for consumers that are being choosier about where they're spending their money.
Frank Holland
All right, going from the low end to the pretty high end. Jim Yown on Holdings. I'm a Nike guy. I'm not, I'm not really an on cue guy. What do you think of this company, its products? It seemed like a couple of months ago we're talking about it just really become a rival for Nike. Nike. It doesn't seem like it has that same momentum recently?
Jim Leventhal
Well, I think, I think it does. I'm going to take the other side of that, which is to say first off, I sold it earlier this year at 61. It's come down in price. All that's done is take a very attractive company and now make it cheaper. I think people love the shoes and the brand extension into apparel is happening. So I see this becoming a viable competitor. Nike now at a much more attractive multiple. All that said Frank. I only have a very small position in it. I just re established it a few weeks ago. I'm a little cautious on the consumer. We have relied on the consumer for many years and there's only so long that that the consumer can keep spending like this. So I'm a little cautious.
Frank Holland
The brand extension into into apparel, is that competing with the Lululemon? Who's that? Who are they competing with?
Jim Leventhal
Their beloved Nike to start with. But also Lululemon. Yes. I mean it's what a good shoe company does. Like Nike many, many years ago where you start out and you've got a brand in foot apparel that people really like and you say Hey, I can extend this brand. I can go further and, you know, have clothes that people like.
Frank Holland
All right. Well today on holdings, they're up just over a half a percent right now. Year to date, though, still pulling back more than 20%. All right. Coming up next on Halftime, Mike Santoli joins us with his MIDDAY word. We're back right after this quick break. And we are back on halftime, senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joining us with his midday Word. Mike, what do you think of the action we're seeing in the markets today, specifically the small caps outperforming?
Mike Santoli
Small caps outperforming. I would say that's part of the pretty aggressive dip buying impulse that we did see over the last few days. I would categorize it in general though, as still unresolved in terms of whether Friday's decline was going to be a one day wonder or just open the door for a longer period of wider swings and more indecision about the path of the economy and trade policy and all the rest. This is the third straight day The S&P 500 is spent within Friday's range from high to low. So it's still telling you that we're sorting out whether that was enough. I think the small cap rally has again been hard to miss and you do have a distinct breakout in the Russell 2000. But I see it much more about, you know, an extension of the froth speculative trade than some kind of macro message for the broader economy or the Fed that we should take from it. So I think it's all, you know, look, we still have pretty high risk appetites. I think that the trade news caught people pretty far out on the risk curve. It hasn't really done much damage yet. But I'm still in wait and see mode as to whether that was enough on Friday to kind of take the pressure off.
Joe
Mike, it's Joe, how do we interpret the move in gold? What's the message there?
Mike Santoli
I mean, I think it's now been kind of memed in the momentum play. I've been viewing it to some degree as now just the preferred diversity, a fire people are kind of allergic to government debt. But at this point, if you just look at things like the ETF flows, it feels as if it's just getting a little bit overdone and extended on any, you know, on any scale. I grant you that, you know, government paper around the world is definitely a little bit, you know, less in demand and people are a little suspicious about the underpinnings of some, some financial, you know, interrelationships but I don't know know if that means that the gold people buying it up here have it right.
Frank Holland
All right, Mike Santiago's midday word. And by the way, gold still above 4200. Mike, thank you very much. All right, stay with us here on halftime. We got final trades coming up in just a minute. Don't go anywhere. Time for final trades. Farmer Jen, you're up first.
Jim Leventhal
BlackRock, we talked about that data center deal. This is firing on all cylinders, passive, active and alts.
Liz Thomas
Liz Small Captain so I think they could be bumpy at least through the end of the month. But once we get that Fed meeting behind us, the China trade deal meeting behind us, I think they're still going to continue that catch up trade.
Stephanie Link
Steph Victoria's secret long term turnaround with.
Joe
Activists involved Jyoti Semi equipment name we already own Lam and KLA Co op. We're seeing something in Teradyne building.
Frank Holland
All right, that's going to do it for halftime. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live, weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
Julia Boorstin
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer what made.
Stephanie Link
You confident that you could do something.
Frank Holland
That hadn't been done before?
Christina Parsonnevolis
I have no fear of failure.
Julia Boorstin
Trailblazing women Changing the game One of.
Liz Thomas
My favorite pieces of advice Think about what your boss's boss needs.
Christina Parsonnevolis
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
Liz Thomas
It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
Julia Boorstin
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players New episodes every Tuesday. Wherever you get your podcasts.
Podcast: CNBC Halftime Report
Date: October 15, 2025
Host: Frank Holland (in for Scott Wapner)
Panel: Stephanie Link, Joe Terranova, Jim Leventhal, Liz Thomas
The episode centers on the current state of the stock market as Q3 earnings season ramps up, with a particular focus on U.S.-China trade tensions, the resilience of financial stocks, the small-cap rally, AI-driven capital expenditure, and family office investments. The panel dissects key banking results, discusses tailwinds for various sectors, and debates how macroeconomic and policy trends (including interest rates and trade) are shaping market sentiment through year-end and into 2026.
On Credit Risk:
Jim Leventhal, [06:02]:
“When you turn on the lights in the kitchen late at night and you see a cockroach, that's not the only one that you're going to see.”
On the Small Cap Rally vs. Large Caps:
Liz Thomas, [10:50]:
“Small caps have just recently hit a new all time high... They are catching up.”
On AI Investment and Capex Deceleration:
Christina Parsonnevolis, [15:45]:
"Barclays argues the market is overestimating the aggregate impact. ... Growth rates are decelerating fast."
On Stock Selection within Tech:
Stephanie Link, [22:44]:
"I mean, I like Broadcom. I've liked Broadcom for five years. ... They're a winner...up 107% in the past year and Nvidia is only up 37%."
This episode of Halftime Report delivers real-time investor reactions to earnings, parsing through macro headwinds like trade and policy while spotlighting persistent market strength in banks, cyclicals, and small caps. While caution remains over credit, capex deceleration, and consumer sustainability, the panel expects a "chase for performance" into year-end, with tactical recommendations across sectors like financials, industrials, biotech, and selective tech names.
For more market action and sector picks, listen to CNBC’s Halftime Report weekdays at 12 PM ET.