Halftime Report: The Markets, the Middle East, and Your Money (June 23, 2025)

Release Date: June 23, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Guests: Joe Terranova, Steve Weiss, Amy Raskin, Bryn Talkington, Phil LeBeau

1. Introduction and Market Overview

Timestamp [00:32]:
Scott Wapner opens the episode by outlining a busy week ahead for investors, highlighting ongoing developments in the Middle East, the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions, and trade negotiations. He emphasizes the market's current green trend but notes a cautious "wait and see" attitude among investors.

2. Market Resilience Amid Middle East Tensions

Timestamp [02:05 - 03:15]:
Amy Raskin discusses the initial fears of a "black swan" event sparked by Middle Eastern conflicts, particularly oil price volatility. However, she highlights the market's swift recovery, attributing it to inherent market resiliency. Raskin underscores the Israeli ETF (EIS) reaching all-time highs as evidence of this strength.

"You can't ignore the resiliency."
— Amy Raskin [00:23]

3. Federal Reserve Policies and Rate Cuts

Timestamp [03:15 - 08:00]:
The conversation shifts to the Federal Reserve's stance, with comments from Fed officials like Bowman and Waller hinting at potential rate cuts if inflation pressures ease. Joe Terranova anticipates two rate cuts this year, citing strong Q1 earnings growth of 12%.

"I see that we could easily have two rate cuts this year."
— Joe Terranova [06:41]

4. Stock Analysis: Tesla and Apple

Timestamp [10:35 - 25:27]:
The discussion delves into Tesla's limited Robotaxi launch in Austin. Joe Terranova expresses cautious optimism but points out deteriorating fundamentals in Tesla's core business, advocating for selling calls to optimize returns.

"I think there's a lot of premium in the stock."
— Joe Terranova [11:25]

Phil LeBeau adds that while the Robotaxi launch is promising, scalability remains uncertain. The conversation transitions to Apple, examining its lag in the AI race. Amy Raskin and Steve Weiss debate whether Apple should acquire AI firms like Perplexity to bolster its capabilities.

"They have to do something, whether it's by themselves or through an acquisition."
— Joe Terranova [25:04]

5. ETF and Sector Movements Amid Geopolitical Risks

Timestamp [28:20 - 32:10]:
Dominic Chu discusses how geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, are influencing ETF flows. Matt Bartolini from State Street Global Advisors notes significant inflows into energy and aerospace & defense ETFs as investors hedge against volatility.

"Energy sector ETFs have taken about $1.4 billion so far in June."
— Matt Bartolini [28:20]

6. Middle East Conflict Updates and Market Impact

Timestamp [34:01 - 49:27]:
Megan Casella provides real-time updates on escalating tensions, including missile threats from Iran targeting U.S. forces in Qatar. The market reacts with major averages turning red and oil prices fluctuating.

"Iran has moved missile launchers into place for a potential attack retaliation against those strikes."
— Megan Casella [39:42]

Amy Raskin explains that crude oil's volatility is driven by algorithmic trading and headlines, emphasizing the market's current sensitivity to geopolitical events.

"This is a headline-driven market."
— Amy Raskin [42:06]

7. Final Investment Calls and Conclusions

Timestamp [49:27 - 35:06]:
In the concluding segment, participants share their final investment picks. Joe Terranova recommends the BEM ETF for its cybersecurity focus, citing a secular tailwind and a strong year-to-date performance.

"Cybersecurity continues to go higher."
— Joe Terranova [49:53]

Steve Weiss advocates for Truist as a strong buy, leveraging its position in the reshoring of American manufacturing and the approval of new nuclear plants in New York.

"It's a hedge against a heavy tech portfolio."
— Steve Weiss [29:40]

8. Closing Remarks

Scott Wapner wraps up the episode by reiterating the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and their impact on the markets. He emphasizes staying informed and strategically positioned to navigate ongoing uncertainties.

Notable Quotes

• Amy Raskin [00:23]:
  "You can't ignore the resiliency."

• Joe Terranova [06:41]:
  "I see that we could easily have two rate cuts this year."

• Joe Terranova [11:25]:
  "I think there's a lot of premium in the stock."

• Joe Terranova [25:04]:
  "They have to do something, whether it's by themselves or through an acquisition."

• Matt Bartolini [28:20]:
  "Energy sector ETFs have taken about $1.4 billion so far in June."

• Megan Casella [39:42]:
  "Iran has moved missile launchers into place for a potential attack retaliation against those strikes."

• Amy Raskin [42:06]:
  "This is a headline-driven market."

• Joe Terranova [49:53]:
  "Cybersecurity continues to go higher."

• Steve Weiss [29:40]:
  "It's a hedge against a heavy tech portfolio."

Key Takeaways

• Market Resilience: Despite geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, markets demonstrate significant resilience, with certain ETFs reaching all-time highs.

• Federal Reserve Outlook: Anticipation of potential rate cuts could further influence market dynamics, supported by strong earnings growth.

• Tech Sector Scrutiny: Companies like Tesla and Apple face critical assessments regarding their innovation and strategic positioning in emerging technologies like AI and autonomous vehicles.

• ETF Strategies: Increased investments in energy and defense ETFs highlight investor strategies to hedge against ongoing geopolitical risks.

• Geopolitical Impact: Escalating Middle Eastern conflicts have immediate effects on oil prices and overall market sentiment, underscoring the importance of geopolitical awareness in investment decisions.

• Final Investment Picks: Participants highlight cybersecurity ETFs and specific stocks like Truist as strategic investments amidst current market conditions.

This comprehensive overview encapsulates the pivotal discussions and insights from the June 23, 2025, episode of CNBC's Halftime Report, providing valuable context and analysis for investors navigating complex market landscapes.