
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee discuss whether the rally can continue as stocks trade at highs with tariffs and earnings looming. Plus, Bryn Talkington calls in with her options strategy on Tesla as Elon Musk returns to the political fray. And later, the desk debate the latest Calls of the Day. Investment Committee Disclosures
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Narrator
What does it mean to live a rich life? It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes and everything in between. With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and of life, your Edward Jones financial advisor will be there to help you move ahead with confidence. Because with all you've done to find your rich, we'll do all we can to help you keep enjoying it.
Joe Terranova
Edward Jones Member, SIPC Amazon presents Lisa Versus the Mosquito Surviving 100 Million Years. Mosquitoes shook off the plate tectonic breakup of Pangea, the asteroid that eliminated the dinosaurs and the ice age. But Lisa shopped on Amazon and bought a can of repellent, a cute long.
Steve Weiss
Sleeve shirt and a citronella candle.
Joe Terranova
Hey mosquito.
Jim Lebenthal
Lisa just bodied.
Joe Terranova
You save the everyday with deals from Amazon.
Scott Wapner
I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Hi Carl, thanks very much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, the outlook for the rally. With stocks at highs, tariffs still looming and earnings about to kick off, we will ask the committee what trades make the most sense right now. Joining me for the hour today, Joe Terranova, Steve Weiss, Jim Lebenthal. We will check the markets here. We do have some red across the board today. We're saying that the second half officially starts today. It's the end of the holiday weekend. The tax bill is done, the tariffs are still looming, earnings about to start and stocks are at record highs. That's how the table is set. So Joe, how does the table look?
Steve Weiss
Okay, so the table in the near term still looks good. Momentum names still holding serve Axon palantir higher today. Mag 7. I know we're going to talk a lot about Tesla, but how about Amazon, which to me looks like it's breaking out. It looks like it's going to go above two and a quarter. Metta remains strong. That's the moment. That's where we are right now. However, my expectation for the third quarter is at best we're flat to lower. And I think one of the reasons why is going to be about July 15th. What is July 15th? The start of the earnings season. July 15th, we're going to hear about earnings. We've been lowering the estimates for earnings. I think we are going to learn that corporations have absorbed the tariff cost and that is going to see significant margin compression. The inflation from tariffs, it's not showing up in the inflation report. So it's, it's going to show up somewhere and I think it's going to show up in margin compression. It'll be okay if you get the revenue growth but consumer discretionary, consumer staple. I think you're going to see earnings growth year on year that's going to be down. I think the biggest challenge we have in front of us is going to be earnings.
Jim Lebenthal
You know what else is July 15th. This is to buttress your point is June CPI and we have not seen the tariffs show up in the inflation numbers yet. I mean if it's going to show up, it's got to show up then. I'm just, I'm just accenting your point, Joe.
Scott Wapner
Okay, the commentary this morning Pascarello Goldman is still a bull market yet one that is delivering less convexity and less consistency than before. Core positions that I believe in and would marry as a composite. US technology and US Power. Steeper global yield curves, a somewhat weaker dollar and don't fight the primary trend in gold. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson Weiss a tougher first half what we just went through, better second half, better 26 could be some consolidation. He says during Q3 they're bullish on a 6 to 12 month horizon. He thinks that earnings tailwinds are going to expand, not contract.
Joe Terranova
Yeah, I'm going to disagree with him. So I agree with Joe that up until and Jim makes a great point on CPI because I don't think you have to see it in July 15th. I know that's what you meant but I think it's likely you start to see it and only from a cost input affecting margins with companies but also from a demand input. So you've seen a lot of pre tariff buying by consumer, by corporations, pre supply chain stocking and that's going to run out at some point. If you go to buy a car. They say despite tariffs being announced on cars and in place already, they say you can get pre tariff prices now. So they're trying to drive demand that's going to run out eventually. The reason why I disagree in the second half is because I do think inflation takes a foothold. I do think that we're going to run out of time on delays and, and that all the good news on tariffs like with the tax bill, you know, whatever he calls a bill being pulled through into the market which is the reason for the sell off today that would hardly cause a sell off how we've gone. But I think that all the good news from Trump administration has already been seen and discounted in the market. And now I believe so I'm saying in terms of stocks, for example.
Scott Wapner
I know what you say. I mean, what else would you be saying? Terms of whatever else.
Joe Terranova
In terms of, for example, the deduction of capital expenditures up to, I think they've raised to 4 million. That if it's put into use in the year you buy it, that will cease job in some of the companies in there when they report not this quarter but going forward.
Scott Wapner
How could stronger economic growth that they think is going to happen as a result of the bill and deregulation and, and tariffs not being as bad as once feared? How can that all be in the market already?
Joe Terranova
Because the market's trading at record highs. It's trading above what we viewed as a troubled valuation area a year ago before this. And the fundamentals don't support. We are starting to see a slowing in the economy. If you work through all the, you know, basically what, what they're saying is, oh, this can drive tremendous growth. You can't get away from the fact that, that prices are higher, that they still don't have tariff deals. And while they don't have tariff deals, at some point he's going to have to not extend the tariffs but actually deploy the tariffs which will affect price demand.
Scott Wapner
They're making a big bet on classic supply side economics.
Jim Lebenthal
That's exactly right.
Scott Wapner
You flood the zone with the opportunity to spend more, make more, reinvest more and thus earnings grow more, the economy grows more. And that what looks relatively expensive today to some in terms of the multiple of the market like Weiss actually isn't because you are at the beginning of this more prolonged growth period than not that that's the argument.
Jim Lebenthal
You just used the term supply side. And I've got to say in the last several months, that's the first time I've heard somebody say it. And that's exactly what it is. This is supply side economics. Now, we can debunk it based on history, but here's what I think is going to happen. First off, in the short term, Joe's right. We got the treasury about to refill its coffers with the debt ceiling lifted. You've got seasonality coming in August and September. I wouldn't be surprised. The third quarter is lousy, but that's healthy. Fine, fine. But I think we're going to end up the year higher by meaningful amounts than we are now because of what Scott, you just mentioned, which is that this is a pro growth budget bill. Now, Steve, you're right. We've got some serious questions. No, no, hang on, hang on. We got some serious questions about what the tariff deals are going to be. And if this extends this question, this uncertainty past August 1st, we're going to have problems because companies have hesitated on hiring, they've hesitated on capex even giving the extra capex expenditure. That is a huge benefit. But if we don't have the deals in place by August 1st, they're just not going to know what I think they will. I'm just going to finish really quickly.
Scott Wapner
Go ahead.
Jim Lebenthal
I think they will get these deals in place. They know they need them. And after that this CAPEX expenditure is very pro growth. Next year earnings are estimated to grow 14% year over year. I think they will.
Joe Terranova
Okay, let me clarify my position. I'm still fully invested. I haven't taken anything off whatsoever. I still think that's the path of least resistance. All I'm saying is that I think we will have a softer earnings period. To Joe's point, point earnings estimates typically get cut 3% going into every period.
Scott Wapner
I mean they've already come down now the bar is lower right now. You don't have to jump so high.
Joe Terranova
But that's for this quarter. Guidance for next quarter I think is going to be somewhat muted because you can't guide, you don't know what tariffs are going to be. You can't take the word of the administration. How many times have we heard that? I've got 20 deals this week that are going to sign. So until you see the whites of the rise, so to speak, they aren't going to take that out of the market. So my point is that we're going to see because of higher prices and we see. We'll talk about the airlines later. We see we could see it in other goods as well and services. Keep in mind you're taking a lot of the population, the immigrant population out of the workforce. You know the deported deportation numbers aren't as large as we saw under Obama or Biden so far but they will exceed it. But they're scared, they're hiding. So that's going to weigh. That's going to be wage inflation. So there are all these knock on effects. Yes, the bill is pro business, without a doubt, it's pro growth. And the continuing threats on Powell if he does fire him, doesn't have the right to. I think that that could lead to something positive. But the point is I think that everything right now is being seen through rose colored glasses and I don't believe that's the Right stance.
Scott Wapner
I mean the people wearing the rose colored glasses are saying I've heard the coulda, woulda, shoulda for months the rose pulled and it hasn't happened. It's something the glasses now for for CEOs have gotten a little more clear than they were before. They were these big thick ones before. They couldn't really see through the lenses very well and now they feel like they've got a little more clarity.
Joe Terranova
Heck, we got more guidance.
Scott Wapner
I think they feel like they got a lot more today than they did three months ago.
Joe Terranova
Different.
Scott Wapner
They could barely, they could barely give. Well you, you're talking to, you know you're not talking to the biggest CEOs in America.
Joe Terranova
Some pretty big CEOs we're not going.
Scott Wapner
To like get in a match CEOs we're talking about. But I, I, I know for a fact that guidance last quarter was way better than people thought.
Steve Weiss
Way better.
Scott Wapner
Most people expected no guidance whatsoever. Now some gave two things a guidance just to cover themselves. But I feel like there's a lot more clarity today than there was three months ago. How can there not be?
Joe Terranova
You can argue that I can wear tariffs.
Scott Wapner
Well I mean your CEO you're going.
Joe Terranova
To make $1 billion investment unless you're a semiconductor CEO and bringing it into the US that's going to be a long tail right to get those up and running. Do you do have greater clarity in terms of what the tariffs be, where your supply chain should be?
Scott Wapner
I feel like you have certainly much better clarity than you did.
Joe Terranova
Well you know you don't want to that but we saw some back, you know back, you know what the rules.
Scott Wapner
Of the road are with Vietnam. Right. That, that, that covers a large swath of American business there. You figure something positive is going to come out of China because it has to for both parties. So the worst is off the table.
Joe Terranova
Nobody's betting on China. Everybody's pulling their worst has already been.
Jim Lebenthal
Negotiated away from this. The actions from this presidential administration show that they do not want the reciprocal tariffs that were put in place on April 2nd to go through. If they did want those levels, if that was their end goal, they would not have kicked the can down the road today and pushed it off to August 1st.
Joe Terranova
I'm the one who was, I'm the first one desk who said I know you're not. They'll delay the tariffs for another 90 days and they'll keep delaying. So the markets over oh deed on tariff news but the only place the tariff can hurt the market is if they Start putting some of these deals to fact. All I'm saying, I'm just highlighting risks. I'm not highlighting probability.
Scott Wapner
I totally get it. And there's an argument to be made that people are too complacent to the risks relative to where the price of the market is. I totally, I totally get point. I would, I would only submit for the record that a lot of the risks that were put on the table before had not come to fruition. So maybe they don't this time. We'll have to see. I think one of the big questions as we make the turn. As I said, we hit the halfway house over the weekend. Now we're on the back, the back nine of the year. What happens to that trade that had us doing pretty well? Lower quality, higher beta, you can call it in some respects momentum. Some had said, well maybe the rallies on thinner ice as because it's being held up by a lower quality cohort of stocks. You've had nine consecutive days of gains from the high beta ETF. That's the longest streak since January of 2018. Wall Street Journal with a piece about meme stocks and YOLO bets are back and fueling the market's rally. We kind of, we kind of get that right. Krinski says there's some signs of froth. What do we think?
Steve Weiss
I think that the vessel that is, is carrying the rose colored glasses thesis is momentum and that's giving comfort to those that are allocating towards lower quality and high beta. The minute you see a reversal in that vessel, the minute, minute that momentum begins to correct, they're going to lose that comfort and you're going to see a precipitous correction. I expect that to happen in this quarter. I actually think that's healthy for the overall bull market we're in.
Joe Terranova
And not unusual, by the way, not.
Scott Wapner
Unusual says we're going to correct 12% 500. That's what, that's what barring in the.
Steve Weiss
Second half, barring the geopolitical shock, I don't think we're going down 12, 12%. But who knows? We could, but we will recover from that. I think the setup into the fourth quarter is a very strong one because again I believe, and I think I differ with Steve on this. I don't think there's this permanency to elevated costs related to tariffs. The fact that companies are eating that cost is, is laying the framework for a bridge for the administration to come up with deals. The nature, the cost, quality of the deals. We'll question that later on. I Don't think the deals are going to be so great, but who knows? But that will allow for the opportunity where to your point, the inflation never appears. The inflation never appears. And if the inflation doesn't appear on September 18th or September 17th, rather, you're going to get that rate cut, the market's going to cheer that, it's going to applaud that. And when you move into the fourth quarter, quarter, that's going to allow for margin expansion because at that point corporations will not have that drag of eating the tariffs.
Scott Wapner
Okay, now the other question, what does retail do? Because you could easily make an argument that the market held up as well as it did and was as resilient as it was through periods of turbulence and uncertainty, which appeared to be endless over the prior six months, retail didn't sell, not in any big wave. Christina Parts and novels is looking at that now as we close out the first half officially and we make this turn, as I said, to what retail's going to do. What is the data show that you've looked at?
Narrator
Yeah, retail investors are just coming off their hottest first half on record, pumping more than $155 billion into U.S. stocks and ETFs in this, according to Vander Research. That's more than the 2021 meme stock frenzy and even the bear market dip buying of 2022. And much of that enthusiasm is really centered around the American exceptionalism rally. And names like Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir, the usuals. But index ETFs like spy and QQQ also top the net inflow list that you're seeing on your screen right here. Individual trading portfolios just really remain skewed towards big technology. But Scott, but Scott, signs are emerging that the fever might be breaking. New data from JP Morgan shows June retail flows actually slowed sharply, particularly in single stocks. Net buying dropped to just $1 billion a day, half the pace from spring. Sentiment scores slipped into negative territory. Even the once beloved Magnificent Seven are losing steam in the eyes of retail allocations have gradually declined and enthusiasm is cooling again according to JP Morgan. Yet despite the slowdown, short interest in those names just hit an 18 month low. You can see just on the right hand side of your screen showing retail may be tired, but they're still not willing to bet against these big tech names. Retail investors, no doubt to your point, Scott, at the beginning, remain a major force in this market.
Scott Wapner
All right, Christina, thank you for that great setup. That's Christina Parts and Evolos, the mother of all retail stocks. Tesla Christina was referencing that's now 7% today. Now you have the, you have the political party from Musk and you have this feud again picking up with President Trump. Highly entertaining to some, no doubt highly concerning to some Tesla shareholders. That has to be clear at this point. Speaking of Bryn talking to joins us now. She is a Tesla shareholder, longtime supporter of the stock and of Elon Musk. And just when you thought you were out, they pull you back in. So what are you thinking now, Brent?
Narrator
No, it's like I'm actually surprised that people are surprised about this because whether it's buying Twitter going all in on President Trump's election, going scorched earth on President Trump, there's a great adage, Scott, that when people show you who they are, believe them. And Elon's going to continue to do what he wants to do now as it relates to this new party, the American party. From what I understand, he's going to be supporting, you know, various, you know, representatives, congressmen, etc. That have his views around fiscal conservatism, etc. So at this point, I don't think he's going to be spending that much money being that we just passed this massive bill. So I think today a little is a little bit of an overreaction. But I do think there's fatigue setting in though. But I think when you have someone that runs six companies, very successful, has a great team underneath it, I just think it's an I think today is a little bit of an overreaction. But I do agree it does get, it does get a bit frustrating.
Scott Wapner
William Blair tries to put some numbers around the whole thing. You know, obviously looking at the passage of the bill and what it's going to mean, you know, because of the EV credit, which is, you know, in many respects the match that lit this whole thing. While the $7,500 tax credit is likely to affect demand, the combination of a demand headwind and over $2 billion in price profits from regulatory credits at risk may be too much for investors to bear. What about that investor you Brin, you know, these are real numbers behind what is ailing the stock activity today, at least in part.
Narrator
Well, I think on the tax credit where you obviously the tax credit of the two, I think it was 2.4 billion last year that they get from like the carbon credits. But in terms of the set the consumer credit of 7,500, what I'm thinking of and I haven't done the math yet, but I think it made net out because these Cars are made in America, interest for earners at 100,000 and then join at 200,000. If you make a car in America, you're going to get to deduct that interest. So I do think that's going to be somewhat of an offset. And I think with high rates for people that want to own a Tesla, you're losing the 7,500, but you're going to get that deductibility of interest. So we'll see how that fleshes out. But as I've said many times, Scott, the current fundamentals of the current business are deteriorating. And so I think you want to own this name and I really try to look at it pragmatically. You want to own this name and sell calls against it. So, you know, towards the end of the close, I'm going to be adding to the position, but I'm going to sell the September 320 calls, which is only about eight weeks out, nine weeks out, and I'm going to collect $20. So if it gets called away, I make 16%. If it doesn't, I've earned 7% or I reduce my cost basis on this new position by 20 bucks. And so I still think this 250 to 60 to 350 is where we're going to trade. And so I think if I want to, I'm going to enter in a new position. I definitely want to sell calls on it right now since we're knocked down at that 252 60. Yeah.
Scott Wapner
All right, Interesting to get your perspective and certainly hear about this new trade. Bryn. Thank you. Bryn, talking to, joining us on Tesla. Speaking of, and maybe it's no coincidence here, Joe Uber hit a fresh all time high today. The Target goes to 120 from 100. Reiterated overweight at Wells. Let's take a look at that stock. There it is. We were just looking at it. Let's throw it back.
Steve Weiss
Keep that chart.
Scott Wapner
See that? Let's look at the chart.
Steve Weiss
That's a good chart. That is a good looking chart. And that chart is going to continue to move higher. This is a company that I think will have a market cap that can double, maybe triple over the next five years. Clearly they've done such a remarkable job in just cleaning up the balance sheet, making them a profitable company. And the diversification of the business model has been one of the reasons why 52 week high, all time high today for sure. The stock in my opinion and its ability to reward the shareholders is also going to going to attract more of an investor class that previously was going to invest in names like Tesla. There's less volatility, there's less agita, as we say, than being involved in Tesla.
Scott Wapner
So who's we?
Steve Weiss
I think you for sure. I think. I think this is a stock that is undervalued. I think it's a stock that's going to move significantly higher.
Joe Terranova
You know, I have a question on that, if I could, please. You know, we saw.
Steve Weiss
Proceed Uber.
Joe Terranova
Thank you. We saw Uber trade down, not significantly, but trade down as the market was trading up in advance of the Robotaxi announcement.
Scott Wapner
Don't you still. You don't you own Uber, don't you or you don't own Uber?
Joe Terranova
I don't own Uber. I have very small position. Simon, we're talking about. It's like I'm out of it completely. So most of it, like 90% of it. But my question for you is this. Then we saw the stock have this huge move up one after the Robotax. Robotaxi. Now. Do you think that can be caused by one of two things? It could be caused by that Uber shareholders now and those that sold it don't really fear the Robotaxi. Right. Because Uber's got a much more profitable model on that. Or it could be that the. That the Tesla announcement talked about a much larger market. People have expanded on, you know, and then they had anticipated. I think it's the former, not the latter because the economics of having the drivers and everybody else but Uber are much better. What do you.
Steve Weiss
I agree with you on that. I also think what the street sees is that there is. They're not worried about the technology of Tesla because there's a response there with the relationship they have with Waymo.
Joe Terranova
Exactly.
Steve Weiss
I think that people really don't understand how far the technological advantage is for Waymo.
Jim Lebenthal
Waymo, thank you.
Steve Weiss
Without a. Waymo has been phenomenal in what they have done in autonomous driving. And now for Uber to have that affiliation with them, why do I need to worry about what Tesla.
Scott Wapner
It's a little bit. Let me, Let me just, let me.
Joe Terranova
Just follow us through the test at the Admiral. So we've taken the Robotaxi sort of, sort of muted the robo taxi story. It's there. But, you know, Uber's better then Humanoids. Extremely crowded space already where they're far behind as well. Auto sales are going way down. We've moved the incentive with, you know, in terms of tax incentive. I don't understand why people want to own such an overvalued stock with a brand that's already been destroyed. Talking about something about Tesla.
Scott Wapner
There's. There's these guys. You said you know how to do that.
Jim Lebenthal
There's.
Scott Wapner
You said you worked as a run. You were different. They're wild horses.
Jim Lebenthal
They're wild dogies is what they are. That's what you call them, dogies.
Scott Wapner
Go ahead.
Jim Lebenthal
Google is. Look, if we're on the back stretch of this horse race of who's going to win self driving and driverless taxis and everything, Google is the one that's kind of in the middle of the pack, but I think is going to do a secretariat on the way home. All right, this is a stock that's trading at 18 times. That is putting a lot of discount into what we've all talked about, of perplexity and everything else eating into their core business. Waymo is going fabulously. And that discount that I just mentioned on competition, Competition is way too much. Google is the one that in the second half of this year is likely to pick up the pace.
Scott Wapner
Let me hit up a couple of stocks before we get out of here for the first break. High Flyers that are getting a little bit of pullback today. Netflix downgraded its seaport. It's to neutral. Weiss, what's your take on a stock that is certainly one of the best charts in this market year to date? Let's look at that, please.
Joe Terranova
Yeah, look, they still think the fund, the long term looks good. There's some uncertainty about how well they're going to bring in AD, you know, the AD tier, etc. I'm not in a position where I want to sell it because of what may be a bumpy short term. This is still a long term compounder. And why take the tax hit if I believe over time still going to create value?
Scott Wapner
CrowdStrike, Joe, downgraded today to neutral at Piper Sandler. You personally own that. Let's take a look at that stock on a year to date basis. There it is. Nice looking name there too.
Steve Weiss
Okay, so you could include Netflix in the same conversation.
Scott Wapner
That's what we just did.
Steve Weiss
Surrounding CrowdStrike.
Scott Wapner
What's interesting to be a producer.
Steve Weiss
What's interesting about.
Scott Wapner
Really?
Steve Weiss
I'm gonna stay right.
Scott Wapner
You just did that.
Steve Weiss
I like this chair. My tan works.
Scott Wapner
The talent to identify segues and things that work together behind the camera.
Joe Terranova
In front of the camera.
Scott Wapner
Well, I mean, I think I'm better. We literally just mentioned Netflix. Then we moved to CrowdStrike. And you say it could be mentioned in the same conversation with Netflix because.
Steve Weiss
They'Re really sleeping in the prior the.
Scott Wapner
Characterization, not at all.
Steve Weiss
The characteristics of each of these companies are very similar and they're defined by the word that you love most, which is momentum. Now, if you look at these stocks, it's very clear that you could say from a technical basis that they could pull back to their 50 day moving average very easily. They're both sitting relatively comfortably above each of them. But the problem with that is if you're taking profit here, which I have no profit problem with, then you're asking yourself the question, when the market resets in the fourth quarter, how am I getting back in once again? Because these companies continue to deliver. In the case of Netflix, the second half of the year, you're buying the content. The content is going to be phenomenal on Netflix. In the case of CrowdStrike, nothing is changing about the overall global environment and the need to spend on cybersecurity. Pull up a chart of fortunet today. You could see the very same pattern. I'll add one stock into this conversation. Spotify.
Scott Wapner
Do it.
Steve Weiss
That is pulling back as well. That is something that you want to buy. In a correction each one of these three stocks. Any corrective behavior in the third quarter.
Scott Wapner
You want to buy, I got to stop you. Let's throw up the s and P500, please. And we're going to go to Megan Cassell at the White House because we do have some news regarding tariffs. Megan, you ready to go on this?
Narrator
Yes, I'm reading this as we get it's got the president has just posted on True Social two letters that he says he has sent to the President, the prime Minister of Japan and the president of South Korea, informing them both that they will be now charged 25% tariffs beginning on August 1 on all exports that they are sending into the United States. That, of course, will be a tariff that is ultimately paid by the importers in the US who are buying those goods from Japan and South Korea. But all of their exports now to the US will be hit with a 25% tariff beginning on August 1st. He says this will be separate from any sectoral tariffs that might already be in place or might be coming into place. And this, of course, Scott, is what he threatened to do when he said he would be sending letters beginning at noon today to these world leaders. He also says in the letter that if any, if either country decides to retaliate by any amount, he will add that onto the 25% tariffs. It will only increase, increase to match whatever they retaliate with. So we will have to see how these countries respond. The August 1st enactment date does give a little bit more room to negotiate. And one final thing I'll flag, Scott, is that for South Korea, this is the same reciprocal rate they were initially going to be charged at 25%. For Japan, initially it was 24%. Now it's around 25%. So it's basically kicking back in those reciprocal rates that we first heard about back on April 2nd. Scott.
Scott Wapner
Okay. All right, Megan, thank you for the very latest. You let us know if you have anything else on that. We'll put you right back on. It's Megan Casella on the North Lawn. And maybe that speaks wise to what you're talking about.
Joe Terranova
I mean, I'm used to being right. It's not proven right so quickly.
Scott Wapner
It took about 27 minutes or so. We'll see if you're wrong in the next three or four, five. It's likely to happen to when minute you start bragging, you know, things start turning on you. But seriously.
Joe Terranova
Yeah, this is the fear.
Scott Wapner
Those are not insignificant numbers by any stretch. I mean, you're thinking of, you know, cars and chips and things like I.
Joe Terranova
Don'T think those stay. But I think the point is the market will get spooked as come as countries don't come in and agree to a tariff framework when Japan already said, look, we're not going to see anything until the end of the summer. So that's not new news. He's just anxious to get some wins on the board and he's going to have to have this kind of message to do it and that will spook the market.
Scott Wapner
Yeah, but I just said the money line of what? The money line of what you just said is cool quote. I don't think those are going to stay.
Joe Terranova
No, I don't.
Scott Wapner
Okay, so why do you get to.
Joe Terranova
Get negative then stay for a long period of time? I think that they could stay for a month or two or a quarter, show he means business because he's at that point where he has to mean business.
Steve Weiss
They're economically unsustainable for either party. So they do at some point be relaxed back. The Same thing happened May 9th in Geneva with the Chinese.
Jim Lebenthal
Yep. Jimmy, you have these letters are a cattle prod. That's all it is. And the market sees through it. Of course it goes down on this news. I think it's going to adjust on the way back up pretty quickly. This is looked at as a negotiating tax.
Joe Terranova
This is Yellowstone Jimmy today.
Jim Lebenthal
It is Yellowstone Jimmy today. And I'm enjoying it going back to my youth at a ranch camp.
Scott Wapner
All right, so let's take a quick break. We'll keep our eyes out for any more headlines that come out from the White House because the letters were said to start going out at night, noon Eastern time today. So maybe this is just the first of many salvos coming from the White House on the trade front. We'll watch all of it. Dow's down 470 plus calls the day next.
Narrator
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Steve Weiss
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Scott Wapner
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WhatsApp, no one can see or hear your personal messages. Whether it's a voice call message or sending a password to WhatsApp, it's all just this. So whether you're sharing the streaming password in the family chat or trading those late night voice messages that could basically become a podcast, your personal messages stay between you, your friends and your family. No one else, not even us. WhatsApp message privately.
Scott Wapner
All right, let's do some calls of the day. QT overweight. The initiation comes from Barclays. The price target, 65 bucks. They say that this company has quote, desirable combination of downside resilience and upside torque. What do you think? You want it?
Steve Weiss
Yeah, I do own it. The stock has been pulling back recently. Let me give you a stock just in case we're wrong on this. The stop should be $48. I think the challenge here, looking forward for equity is that they are unhedged in 2026. They've been hedged in 2025. Obviously that has worked to their advantage. Natural gas prices continue to push lower. That's going to put some downside pressure on the company. It does not eliminate the premise that this is a quality company and a great way to get exposure to natural gas. It's been that way for the last three to four years. But less risk management. The risk management position rather, and understand the potential looking forward is that natural gas prices don't recover. That will affect the stock.
Scott Wapner
All right. Take a look at Wynn Resorts initiated. Jimmy couldn't. I was going to put this first, but I don't want to get Jim too excited, too quick. Buy 122 at Goldman. New 52 week high. Well, this continues to prove you wrong, Joe. There's this. This stock does.
Jim Lebenthal
There's good momentum in the name. I mean, Joe T. I don't know. I think in the rebalance we should be looking at it, but there's. There's reason for the stock.
Joe Terranova
We should be looking at it. Yeah.
Scott Wapner
Okay.
Joe Terranova
You got enough to go, Joe T.
Jim Lebenthal
Boy, you guys are quick.
Steve Weiss
Okay.
Scott Wapner
Do you think if it qualified that he would put it in?
Jim Lebenthal
I think he's going to find a technicality to keep it out. No, because you're the king of dinosaurs in the desert. But people are going to the desert. It's fun.
Scott Wapner
I think he would do you wrong. I do. We're going to find out the rules.
Steve Weiss
Of the rules, Jimmy.
Scott Wapner
We're going to find out.
Jim Lebenthal
Okay. But to be serious, something that I've said Contessa Brewer has said quite often and now Goldman is pointing out is that in the very beginning of 2027, the win El Marjan Resort will open in dubai. I know, 2027, but it's the very beginning. So a year and a half away, the stock market's going to start anticipating that. That is definitely not in the price of the shares. I like when.
Steve Weiss
Here, let me ask you a question. Last week the all rallied on the premise that Macao revenue was increasing significantly. However, the evidence is showing that the Reason for that was because you saw a tremendous amount of increase in traffic and visitors for the entertainment, not for the gambling. So how sustainable is that then?
Jim Lebenthal
So I love the question because I'm not a believer in Macao being the thing that should drive this. I think Wynne has been held back from being appreciated for the strength and loss of Vegas in Boston, by the way, also, and also this upcoming project in Dubai. But still everybody values it and it moves up and down with Macao. That's why in September of last year when we started to make nice with China for a little bit or excuse me, China stimulate, started to stimulate its economy.
Scott Wapner
Let's look at a three month, two please, while Jim's telling this fine story. Three months.
Jim Lebenthal
Look, I think this is about far more than Macao, but for the last couple of years, maybe three years, this is. The stock has only moved on Mac count.
Steve Weiss
Your Honor, may I?
Scott Wapner
That's momentum. You're going to proceed.
Steve Weiss
Okay, so if in fact it is about Las Vegas, Goldman Sachs has MG bailout.
Scott Wapner
That is the line producer is going to take me out of the courtroom in a minute, but please, at a cell.
Steve Weiss
So if it is about some fundamental dynamic in Vegas or I see it, more idiosyncratic Caesars win. Congratulations to you and Stephanie Link, by the way, it's not about Vegas because MGM wouldn't be sitting.
Jim Lebenthal
I will get of you. There's been a lot of head fakes and I'm wondering if this is one too. I'm sticking with it because within Las Vegas, this is the premier property. It is. I don't think you put it up against mgm. From a quality point of view, if you know anything about Las Vegas. I'm not saying that you don't. I'm just saying people who know the industry say this, that this is the premier spot. By the way, there's a lot of other shots on goals that are coming up. Across from the Wynn Encore is something like 30 acres right there on the street strip. That's a, that's just a blank lot right now. They don't even use it for parking. At some point they'll put something up there.
Steve Weiss
Why are you so incarcerated?
Scott Wapner
Silvana now has the headlines for us. Hi, Silvana.
Narrator
Hey, Scott. Good afternoon to you. Well, in a briefing with local officials today, Senator Ted Cruz said the recent cuts to FEMA and the National Weather Service did not affect the late warnings of flash flooding in Kirk County, Texas over the holiday weekend. The senators comments come as local officials insisted no one saw the flood potential coming despite the National Weather Service sending out a series of flash flood warnings overnight. On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told President Trump that he would replace the country's ambassador to the U.S. according to multiple outlets. The two leaders discussed the replacement in a phone call Friday. Oksana Markarova has been criticized by Trump's commitment congressional allies of being too close to Democratic lawmakers. And the U.S. has reached its highest annual measles case tally in three decades, with 1277 confirmed cases across 38 states and D.C. the outbreak has sent 155 people to the hospital and killed three people. The CDC says the large majority of cases in 2025 are in people who are either unvaccinated or whose vaccination status was unknown. Scott, I'll send it back to you.
Scott Wapner
All right, Sivana, thank you. Silvana Hanau. Up next, your ETF edge on navigating bond market volatility. Halftime's back after this.
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Joe Terranova
Business Surviving and thriving? America's top states for business is back.
Scott Wapner
Which state will take the honors this year?
Joe Terranova
The list revealed July 10th and streaming on CNBC.
Scott Wapner
All right, welcome back. Dominic Chu has today's ETF edge. Don, what are we talking about today? All right, Judge. The 10 and 3030 year bond yields are hitting intraday highs not seen since last month, due in large part to the back and forth on trade and tariffs. So joining me now is Roger Hallam, the global head of rates at Vanguard, to talk through all of this. Roger, maybe we'll start with this notion that Vanguard has always been known for its indexing products. You tie them to certain key levels and charts. But you guys are starting off a new actively managed bond ETF tied to Treasuries. Why? I think investors are increasingly focused on investing in the ETF wrapper and Vanguard wants to expand our offering to those investors. And we believe we have a compelling active fixed income process which we can partner with clients to enhance their returns. So we want to expand our ETF offering with this. The Vanguard Government Securities ETF will be our 8th active fixed income ETF, our first focus on government securities. We think it will provide investors with the safety liquidity that investors would expect from a government etf. But Vanguard will be using their active capabilities to enhance returns for those investors. And Roger, what will you be looking for as you actively manage this etf? So obviously our investment process focuses on using a range of high information ratio alpha levers. So we focus on adding value through treasury relative value through our systematic trading strategies. But also importantly, we'll be dynamically allocating between Treasuries and mortgages. We have a long and successful track record of doing that. You look at our active capabilities, 95% of our funds are outperformed forming peer group averages over the past 10 years. And we believe we can replicate that success within the Vanguard Government securities etf. All right. Roger Hallam, global head of rates at Vanguard, thank you very much for that. We are going to continue this conversation@etfedge.cnbc.com Roger is going to be joined by Jay Jacobs, the U.S. head of Equity ETFs at BlackRock. So, Scott, big online show, 1:15 o', clock, 1:15pm Eastern. I'll send things back over to you. Thanks, Don. We'll be there. Appreciate that. Straight ahead, we follow summer travel demand. Is it holding up? What does it mean for the stocks involved? Philippeau is going to tell us next. Welcome back. Airlines are wrestling with weak summer demand. Apparently our Phil LeBeau has those details. You have numbers to back that up, Phil? Well, that's the interesting thing, Scott, is that this narrative has been out there for some time that you see softness in domestic bookings. International is not that strong. So we reached out to Cirium and we've also been checking some of the analyst notes in terms of the data that they're seeing. And here's what we've come up with. Now, Cirium says summer bookings, as they look at them from select cities, they are down versus last year. And yet Jefferies notes today that July 4th passenger levels up 1%. Summer storms are causing delays. That's always something of a concern for the airline. Seems to be a little a few more storms than normal. And at least that's what it seems like at this point. We'll be checking on that in the days to come. Take a look at the airline index. You might be saying, well, then why is the airline index moving higher? All of the airlines, when you talk with them, they say, look, we're still seeing solid demand despite this narrative that is out there. It could be, Scott, that we're noticing perhaps a bifurcation where the general bookings, the lower end of the plane, that might be a little bit soft and the higher end, the premium cabin, that might be a little Bit stronger. We'll get a chance to check on this on Thursday. That is when Delta reports its Q1 results. We're going to be talking with Ed Bastian on Thursday as well. We'll get a sense from Delta in terms of what they're seeing. But Scott, this narrative has been out there especially you hear people saying, well, no, nobody from Europe wants to come to the United States. It's not what the airlines are saying. So we'll get a better read on that over the next couple of weeks. Oh, good stuff, Phil. Thank you for that. That's Phil LeBeau. You own Delta.
Jim Lebenthal
I do own Delta. So he's absolutely right. He's throwing a little skepticism on this narrative. And you know, I check the TSA numbers. When you get data once a day.
Steve Weiss
You check that data.
Joe Terranova
Okay.
Jim Lebenthal
And basically numbers have been flat. There's been a drop off in international travel, but it's been picked up in domestic travel. The question, and Phil pointed this out, is where in the plane are these passengers sitting? In the front where there's a premium or in the back where there isn't. We know that economy tickets have gone down. We see that in the CPI for several months. But the front of the plane is where these companies make money. Delta reports on Thursday. Joe, I didn't want to correct you earlier when you said earnings start on the 15th. That actually starts this Thursday with Delta. We will see. Remember Scott, Delta was the one that was kind of the first after Liberation Day to say we don't know, we can't tell what's going to go on. We're going to see to our earlier discussion in the A block. We're going to see if there's to be going clarity, if there's guidance going forward.
Scott Wapner
I have seen some ticket prices where the airlines are obviously trying to coax the the back end of the plane to buy more tickets because you could see a price difference of like 10 to 11 times between front and back.
Jim Lebenthal
Yeah. I'm also going to point out that like I travel a lot. I don't see these price declines that you're seeing in cpi. I just don't see it. So I don't know if you going to Indianapolis, no offense, Indianapolis, maybe there's a price decline there. If you're going to la, if you're going to San Francisco, you're paying, buddy.
Joe Terranova
In the front of the plane you're paying and you're paying big time.
Scott Wapner
Yeah.
Joe Terranova
I mean flight to Chicago, the cost and in the front plane, as I.
Scott Wapner
Watch him hurry up Mr. Chip advisor. We let it go four times. Four times.
Joe Terranova
Three to four times.
Steve Weiss
It's a lot.
Scott Wapner
Travel tickets.
Jim Lebenthal
Yeah.
Joe Terranova
I'm a modest man. We gotta go to I'm a modest.
Steve Weiss
Guy'S next try to bring out the worst of me.
Joe Terranova
I'm.
Scott Wapner
Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli is here with his midday word. I guess the midday words tariff. Yeah. Market seems to be reacting to that. Dow's down 500.
Steve Weiss
Yeah. So kind of scratching at the old scab which we thought had kind of healed up. Now it's being applied, the pressure is to where you would expect it. Right. Small caps down a percent and a half. I mean I was looking at the 80 hours for Toyota. Right. They were down 4%. They were already weak going into that number. Took another leg down so incrementally you're at least having to raise the prospect that this re escalates. I don't think anyone is overreacting to it because it does seem as if.
Jim Lebenthal
You do it in conjunction with moving.
Steve Weiss
The date out to August 1st.
Jim Lebenthal
It feels like maneuvering to declare victory.
Steve Weiss
Almost no matter what happens. But it's uncomfortable when you get the market at this level believing that it had kind of used up all the uncertainty that was dissipating and now all of a sudden you re inject it and it's a little uncomfortable when you say okay, what are they doing with the money in the bank Built by the budget bill passing and the decent jobs number and the market at a new high? Well, we're going to spend it down a little bit with some hawkish trade stuff. So that's where we are. I mean I think the, you know, the market was due to cool off almost no matter what. That was underway helped by Tesla I think above 6150. The old highs, it's just noise and you're well above that at the moment.
Scott Wapner
All right, good. I'll see you in a couple of hours. On closing bell, Mike Santoli. Finals are next. I will have a good one. At three o' clock today. Adam Parker, Mohamed El Erian, Cameron Dawson, Courtney Garcia Kovac and Cancer Witz on the musk Trump fallout and the continued drama around that and can't wait for that conversation again. We'll follow this market to see what we do. We're about the lows of the day. Farmer Jim, the self described one time ranch hand says he can use a lasso. I call you know what on that a little bit. We'll see.
Jim Lebenthal
It's been a few decades but rather than lasso why don't you pick yourselves up so some shares of BlackRock, their partner, will go higher with the markets overall.
Scott Wapner
All right, I like that character.
Joe Terranova
He goes weiss Bitcoin. Look, it's a risk asset. Marc goes down, goes down. But I think this is next area for Trump's focus.
Steve Weiss
Okay, Jyoti, the horse to ride home is Costco.
Scott Wapner
All right. It's one too many, but that's okay. Yeah, see on the bell. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the Picture podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
Narrator
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer@ Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella. Eduardo.
Halftime Report: The Outlook for the Rally (July 7, 2025) Hosted by CNBC's Scott Wapner
Timestamp: [01:02]
Scott Wapner kicks off the episode by setting the stage for the midday market analysis. He highlights the key factors influencing the market at the halfway mark of the trading day:
Quote:
"With stocks at highs, tariffs still looming and earnings about to kick off, we will ask the committee what trades make the most sense right now."
— Scott Wapner [01:02]
Timestamp: [01:51] - [05:30]
Steve Weiss provides an optimistic near-term outlook, noting momentum in key stocks like Axon, Palantir, and Amazon. However, he expresses caution for the third quarter, anticipating flat to lower performance due to:
Quote:
"I think we're going to learn that corporations have absorbed the tariff cost and that is going to see significant margin compression."
— Steve Weiss [02:45]
Joe Terranova counters with a more bearish perspective, arguing that inflation will take hold and demand will weaken as pre-tariff buying subsides. He also points to wage inflation and workforce reductions as potential dampeners.
Quote:
"I do think inflation takes a foothold. I do think that we're going to run out of time on delays."
— Joe Terranova [05:09]
Timestamp: [05:30] - [08:20]
The discussion shifts to divergent opinions on the market's future:
Jim Lebenthal supports Joe's view by linking the absence of tariff impacts in CPI figures to expected future margin pressures.
Quote:
"The biggest challenge we have in front of us is going to be earnings."
— Steve Weiss [03:00]
Timestamp: [15:11] - [16:33]
Christina Parts, from Evolos, discusses the evolving landscape of retail investors:
Quote:
"Retail investors, no doubt to your point, Scott, at the beginning, remain a major force in this market."
— Christina Parts [16:33]
Timestamp: [17:12] - [21:27]
Bryn, a Tesla shareholder, shares her outlook amidst the ongoing feud between Elon Musk and President Trump. Despite short-term volatility, she remains optimistic about Tesla's long-term prospects.
Quote:
"I think today a little is a little bit of an overreaction. But I think when you have someone that runs six companies, very successful..."
— Bryn [17:38]
Steve Weiss echoes the bullish sentiment, highlighting Tesla's strong market position and potential for substantial growth over the next five years.
Quote:
"This is a stock that I think will have a market cap that can double, maybe triple over the next five years."
— Steve Weiss [20:30]
Timestamp: [21:27] - [23:29]
The conversation shifts to Uber, discussing its recent stock movements and strategic positioning in the autonomous driving space through its partnership with Waymo. Steve Weiss emphasizes Uber's competitive edge and technological advancements.
Quote:
"Without Waymo has been phenomenal in what they have done in autonomous driving. And now for Uber to have that affiliation with them, why do I need to worry about what Tesla."
— Steve Weiss [22:41]
Timestamp: [24:30] - [27:00]
Joe Terranova and Steve Weiss touch upon Netflix's recent downgrade to neutral by Piper Sandler. Despite short-term uncertainties, they view Netflix as a long-term compounder, advocating for holding or even buying on dips.
Quote:
"This is still a long term compounder. And why take the tax hit if I believe over time still going to create value?"
— Joe Terranova [24:50]
Timestamp: [25:00] - [26:21]
Steve Weiss discusses CrowdStrike's recent downgrade and how it pairs with other momentum-driven stocks like Spotify. He highlights the importance of technical support levels and the potential for recovery post-correction.
Quote:
"They could pull back to their 50 day moving average very easily. They're both sitting relatively comfortably above each of them."
— Steve Weiss [25:13]
Timestamp: [40:00] - [44:14]
Analysis of Delta Air Lines reveals mixed signals:
Quote:
"We're still seeing solid demand despite this narrative that is out there."
— Philippeau [15:11]
Timestamp: [33:17] - [35:18]
Jim Lebenthal and Steve Weiss delve into Wynn Resorts, debating its reliance on Macau revenues versus its domestic strength and upcoming expansions in Dubai. They acknowledge the stock's recent rally and potential for future growth.
Quote:
"This is about far more than Macau, but for the last couple of years, maybe three years, this is... The stock has only moved on Macau."
— Jim Lebenthal [35:07]
Timestamp: [26:42] - [29:44]
Megan Cassell reports on President Trump's announcement to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea starting August 1st. This move is aimed at pressuring these countries while seeking reciprocal tariff deals.
Key Points:
Quote:
"All of their exports now to the US will be hit with a 25% tariff beginning on August 1st."
— Megan Cassell [28:03]
Joe Terranova cautions that while these tariffs may be temporary, they pose significant short-term risks to the market.
Quote:
"We're going to see because of higher prices and we see... that all the good news from Trump administration has already been seen and discounted in the market."
— Joe Terranova [05:30]
Timestamp: [30:06] - [37:45]
Roger Hallam, Global Head of Rates at Vanguard, discusses Vanguard's new actively managed bond ETF tied to Treasuries. This initiative aims to enhance returns through active management strategies, including:
Quote:
"We think it will provide investors with the safety liquidity that investors would expect from a government ETF, but Vanguard will be using their active capabilities to enhance returns."
— Roger Hallam [31:10]
Timestamp: [42:30] - [44:14]
Phil LeBeau provides an update on the struggling airline industry amid weak summer travel demand:
Quote:
"It could be that we're noticing perhaps a bifurcation where the general bookings, the lower end of the plane, that might be a little bit soft and the higher end, the premium cabin, that might be a little Bit stronger."
— Phil LeBeau [42:30]
Jim Lebenthal and Steve Weiss reinforce these observations, noting flat TSA numbers and strong premium demand despite overall booking declines.
Timestamp: [44:34] - [46:58]
As the episode concludes, the hosts reflect on the day's market movements:
Quote:
"We're going to watch all of it. Dow's down 470 plus calls the day next."
— Scott Wapner [30:06]
Scott Wapner wraps up the episode by previewing upcoming segments and encouraging listeners to stay tuned for further analysis.
Notable Excluded Content:
This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the July 7, 2025 episode of CNBC's Halftime Report, providing insights into market dynamics, investor sentiment, specific stock analyses, and the impact of governmental policies on the financial landscape. Whether you're a seasoned investor or new to market analysis, this summary offers a clear and detailed overview of the key discussions and expert opinions presented during the episode.