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Halftime Report
The Parabolic Tech Mania Continues: Your Next Move 6/3/26
00:44:08
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate the high-flying tech sector and how you should trade the space as it continues rising higher. Plus, CNBC’s Leslie Picker joins us to discuss the latest news out of the Space X IPO. The Investment Committee debates the valuation and what it means for the IPO market. And later, we hit the latest Calls of the Day. Investment Committee Disclosures
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At Edward Jones, we believe rich is more than caring about the latest and greatest. It's also taking care of what gives your life meaning. That's why your dedicated financial advisor meets you where you are with personalized financial strategies that help protect what matters so you can preserve your progress while creating a path forward. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones Member, SIPC okay, lunch packed, permission slip signed.
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Time for my goodbye hug. Wait a sec. One arm, no eye contact.
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If your tween has been giving you more side hugs lately, it's time to talk to their doctor about HPV vaccination to help protect them against certain HPV related cancers before exposure. For most people, HPV clears on its own, but for those who don't clear the virus, it can cause certain cancers later in life. Why wait to vaccinate? Learn more@hpv.com, sponsored by Merck. I'm Scott Wapner, and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thank you very much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, parabolic tech, another chip name joins the club. We discuss and debate the markets which, as you know, are under some pressure. Oil and bond yields are both moving higher. We're discussing all of it with the committee, Joe Terranova, Shannon, Steve Weiss and Bryn Talkington. So we do have that move in oil. We do have the move in yields. A deal in the Middle east, much talked about, appears to be elusive, at least so far. There's no, just no deal. And until you get that, oil's going to be doing what it's doing and bond yields are going to be doing what they're doing and the market is going to react in kind, at least for a moment or two, because the market's been really fixated on things beyond what's been happening in the Middle East. But this is just a reminder today, again, despite the tweets and this and that, there's no deal yet.
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C
No, there's no deal yet. But over the last several days, the market is clearly focused on coming off of remarkable earnings growth over the last several weeks and more importantly, the parabolic nature in which the AI technology stocks and the momentum factor itself is trading. Now, I don't like the narrowness that we are currently trading in the market. If you look today, NASDAQ down S& P down S and P Equal weight down, Russell down. We're hanging by the threat of momentum. Momentum is still higher. While we're speaking, Micron has turned lower, Corning has turned lower. But you're still seeing the semi equipment names that are higher right now. So I think for the viewers, what do you do with that? If you don't own these names, you're not reaching out and buying them here. They are very well extended. If you do own them, understand they no longer are trading like equities. They are trading like commodity futures contracts. And that requires you put on a stop. That requires you understand that the astronomical gains you have benefited from over the last 60 days, that's probably not where you're ultimately going to be ringing the register. Doesn't change the fundamentals. Just understand the nature of how we're trading right now is very technically oriented. And the word you began with parabolic is how you define all of it.
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A
Well, there's many stocks within that orbit which we'll get to in a minute. But do you see this? Right. We've, we've had these kinds of days before where you get some more uncertainty out of the Middle east, you know, a negative headline or whatever, or even the flare up of hostilities yet again. And it's proven to be sort of fleeting in terms of the impact it's had on the stock market. We'll see if this is another one of those moments because the greater story is still very much intact.
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D
Right. And I think that the challenge is, is that this is a reminder for investors in terms of the nature of the rally that we have seen, that they need to take a step back and look at their portfolios and define whether they want to take some of that risk off the table. If you look at, again, the lack of breadth in this market is quite concerning. And while we believe that the AI tailwind is exciting and real, it's also creating a significant amount of risk into an event that is likely to move capital around. And so when we look at the geopolitical situation, there's two things that I think we have to pay attention to. One, what is it doing in terms of real rate expectations? How does that affect the yield curve we have seen historically over the last few years? The one thing that does derail some of this tech tailwind is the potential for higher yields. And if we're looking at an environment where so much Capex has been put into AI, that implies, Scott, that we're going to have an expectation of a higher growth rate. You couple that with higher energy prices, the Likelihood is now we're, we're in June. I mean, we're at the point where we're going to start to see that energy pass through even if consumers are unable to digest it. So I think, yes, it's, you know, back and forth on this geopolitical tension over the next month or so. We're going to start to see that come through in real economic data. You couple that with higher yields and the froth and the lack of breadth and we anticipate there's going to be some volatility over the next few weeks.
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A
Weiss, you know, Krinski of BTIG is out today talking about tech pushing past historical extremes. Okay. He says the S and P information tech sector closed yesterday 82 RSI, 28% above its 200 day. It's only occurred in 10 unique periods since 1990. Yeah, there have been some positive outcomes from that. It's not like that's a precursor to gloom and doom every single time. But it is representative of the narrow trade that has existed that has pushed tech way up. Shannon said something that I wanted to want to discuss further too. These stocks have been going up because the market's jazzed about their growth rates, their earnings trajectories and all of that. Tony Pascarello of Goldman Sachs kicks around today in his new note whether we are at peak growth rate for the hyperscalers and for the AI infrastructure companies, as he points out that two thirds of S and P earnings growth in 2026 has been to those two cohorts. Okay. The mega cap hyperscalers and the infrastructure firms. So he's asking, so where are we in the growth rate cycle? Are we at peak? Not necessarily. He gets from asking his portfolio strategy people over there. That would imply that the Runway still has pavement on it for a good while.
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E
I think it does. And when you say peak growth rate, I assume he's talking about where we are right now, not where we're going to be in five.
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A
No, no, no. Where we are right now.
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E
Right now.
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A
Right. Because if we're this way, if we're at or close to peak growth rate, then then there's the trajectory of the move that we've seen in tech is, is potentially nearing its.
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C
Right.
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A
The climax of that. Right?
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E
No, absolutely. I don't think we're there yet. But let me tell you this. So the I was at this extraordinary event yesterday. Goldman Sachs is family office event once a year, 150 families top family offices from around the world, 19 countries. And I'd say it was Consensus. I won't give you the speaker work allowed to, but you'd know them all. Top voices, top market people, CEOs. Here's what say consensus is exactly what David Solomon said who spoke that greed is overcoming fear and that the markets detach from reality. Additionally, what they all said to a person, I'm talking about the speakers, and I think Shannon just alluded to this, is that oil prices are where they are and they will go higher, they won't go lower. Sure, they may come down. If there's a deal, there won't be a deal because Iran doesn't care. China bought 110 million barrels of oil in expectation of the war. So they're not pushing it. So the only ones that really want it to end, that are involved the conflict, are the U.S. so the economy should worsen in the second half because inflation is going to take a spike up job.
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A
But just because when Solomon says, you know, it's greed over fear.
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E
Right.
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A
That doesn't necessarily. You, you continued the statement there by suggesting detached from reality, the market's detached from reality. Greed can still outweigh fear in a market cycle. No, but, yeah, but the exuberance can be evident and you could still be attached to reality.
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E
Right, right.
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A
But you, you suggested it's, it's the reverse because the reality is that earnings growth is still extraordinarily strong.
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C
That's what said.
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E
Yes.
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A
If we're not at a peak growth rate like Pascarello's examining now, then we're not detached from reality. In fact, we are very much anchored to the reality of the moment and where we think we still can go. We haven't pushed past the irrational stage of the exuberant level that you suggest we might be or these others are speaking about.
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E
Right. And here's what I'd say. It's, it's a very narrow, narrow, narrow needle to thread right between one exuberant and when it's just maybe overvalued. Now, the earnings growth, as Pascarella point out in his note as well, I believe, was that two thirds of the earning growth, earnings growth in the last quarter came from the air, as I said.
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A
Yeah, all two thirds of it. Yeah.
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E
So, so, so I think that's problematic now. Can it go on for a little while? I think it can. My point is, is that the growth in the economy is going to slow down next year because if you believe inflation's going up and even if we enter the war today, it's going to take six months to restart for the Oil companies. So we're in this quagmire now. I happen to believe that there's a higher possibility the market will looks through it. Because I go back to what I've said before. Every recovery has been a V shaped recovery. Everyone including 2008. So if you've been new to the market, not that new, you've been in the market for almost two decades. That's what you used to. So that's where you buy the dips. And I think, and frankly it's been the right thing to do since people sat under the button tree agreed on.
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A
See, you know, even Ed Yardeni is turning a little more, more cautious about the weeks ahead where he talks about the fabulous earnings momentum market. Not FOMO but FIMO as he has coined that the melt up as a result of being earnings driven should be more sustainable. However, the war is not over. This is what he's talking about. He's got oil executives warning that inventories are dangerously low and oil prices are to go to 150. You know, people see these tweets suggesting that, you know, Iran's agreed to this or they've agreed to that until the market knows that there's a definitive agreement and we can see some tangible evidence of it. This is still the risk, the principal risk that Ed Yardeni is talking about, isn't it?
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F
Well, yeah, and it goes to Jonathan Krinski's. I mean a lot of people have been showing that analog between 2022 and 1994. And like in the summer of, in the summer of 1998 you saw we went extremely overbought to underbought very quickly. And so I think with Iran, first of all, Iran is a petro, is a petro economy. They absolutely need that straight open. They need oil to low. I think one of the main issues with Iran is who's in charge. And that is very complicated. I don't think anyone really knows. And so I think that you have this, this tug of war between the Exxon and Chevron executives saying which is factually correct, inventories are really low and bad things can happen in the middle of June. As a juxtaposition to that. China has a billion barrels in storage and we're taking about 8 to 9 million a day out of the spider. So I still think there's a high risk on the, that oil actually undershoots here. If you actually when we actually get something because Iran needs that but going but going to Ed Yardeni's earnings. I think it's really interesting why Does Wal Mart, Costco, Apple have just a consistently high multiple over the market? Because those earnings we all know are durable and consistent. And to me, what I'm trying to figure out, I think what investors should anchor on right now are the earnings of Micron, Dell, HP, etcetera, etcetera. Are these earnings that are going to last one to two years or five to 10 years? Because we have gone up to the right on earnings, which we've all been talking about. But I don't think that is the new normal for those companies. And so I do think we're in this environment for the next one to 18 months. These companies are over earnings, but I do not think this level is going to stay like a Walmart or a Costco. And to me, ultimately, that's the risk. Do I think that memory optimization will occur? Absolutely. Once that occurs, you're going to see these memory names start coming down because there's optimization of memory. We're not going to have memory prices just stay at these levels. And so I think you've got to like dance while the parties here. But I do like what, what you said about the Iran has been elusive and what Joe said I think is spot on about. These stocks are trading more like futures contracts and people should adjust accordingly.
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A
One more note on Goldman. We're going to speak on closing bell. I will today with John Waldron. He's the president and chief Operating officer and we look forward to that right at the top of three. So you don't want to miss that, given everything that's been going on in the market and with the, you know, the looming SpaceX IPO obviously, which they're leading, we'll get into to all of that. I do want to get to the Parabolic Club, which we, you know, we saw what Marvell did and HPE and all these stocks. That again, what used to be a special move is routine now apparently for a lot of these. Marvell one week up 52%. HPE 44 and a half. We know about Snowflake and the dell, up the 36 and a half and all that. I'm wondering what you want to, what you want to do with that. That, I guess is making some people uncomfortable, but it's also evidence of just how offsides the street has been on the earnings trajectory for a lot of these companies.
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C
Yeah, I think it's a collaboration of Tony's comments and Bren's comments. We are in, as Rick Reeder told you yesterday, arguably the sweet spot moment for the earnings growth can you believe that it's secular. Well, if you look back over the last seven quarters, we've experienced double digit earnings growth for the S and P. Guess what? There's an end date to that. It's more cyclical than it is secular. It will be over at some point. People are looking at some of these names. Marvell as example. We, we were late to purchase Marvell. We just purchased Marvell on April 30th. Guess what? We're up 89% on that purchase because
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A
Nuts Steeple, by the way, takes the target to 321 today.
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C
And here's what the street believes about Marvell and to a certain extent to Corning is it is the next AI thesis similar to what we're experiencing right now with memory. It's about the optical interconnectivity that Marvell has. And Marvell, by the way, Scott, is not even in the s and P500. So it is the largest company sitting on the sidelines right now. June 19 Rebalance is a $250 billion company. It would put it in the top 50 in the S and P. Jensen
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already predicted we're going to a trillion. So it's.
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C
So I think it's going in the
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S and P. It's going to be
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C
in the S and P. So I think the street is getting in front of that. I think that's part of the appreciation that you're seeing currently. Jensen blessed it. He also blessed it with Word and actually with dollars. A two billion dollar investment. They have a strong relationship with Microsoft and Alphabet and Amazon and it's a class example of a stock that is in the sweet spot. Do you chase it here if you don't own it? No, you don't. If you do own it, you ride it with a stop and understand when it ends you're not going to ring the register and collect the entirety of the producer.
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A
What about Broadcom, which is today after the bell, this is now the next one in the queue.
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C
So Broadcom is interesting because listening to your, your conversation with, with Steve, I don't think ultimately you're going to say the growth rate on revenue and earnings in totality ends for quote unquote technology. I think it's specific to individual stock stories. I think you have to be careful with broadcast. Broadcom right now trades at a Forward multiple of 32 times. It's above the 10 year average of 18. The stock has been appreciating recently because Alphabet is giving confirmation that they're going to continue to spend Alphabet's doing an $85 billion equity offering. They're not sitting on the cash. They're telling the street we're going to spend more money. Why does that matter for Broadcom? Because Alphabet is 13% of Broadcom's overall revenue. So it's rallying on the back of that. But here's something to keep in mind. In 26, the revenue growth for Broadcom, 62%. You'll begin to see the moderation as you move into 27 and you move into 28. 28. The street right now estimates it's only going to be 28%. So this might be an example of what we're talking about here where growth rates begin to moderate. I don't think think it's in totality. I think it's individual on a stock by stock basis.
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A
Let's hit Apple if we could, because the stock is. It's a little red now, but it did hit a new record high a little while ago. And we're less than a week away now from WWDC in which we're going to be broadcasting live from for yet another year there, which we're looking very much forward to both halftime and closing bell on Monday as we see what happens 11 weeks in a row. This stock is now pacing for that would be the longest weekly winning streak since 2004. Goldman reiterating the name ahead of that, that big event. We'll see what they announced. Some are suggesting it's unlikely to drive demand unless there's a big surprise. But demand's already been robust, as we know, in the upgrade cycle for the latest iPhone as we look ahead to the fall for the, for the new one. But how do you see this name here 11 weeks in a row?
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F
I think that it's incredible that it's continuing just to just keep up with the market, keep up, you know, keep up with the QS. I think the QS are up 20% year to date. So at 14 it's done very well. I believe their capex year over year is actually down. And so while everyone else is spending billions, which will turn into trillions in a few years, their balance sheet is fortress like. And I think that we, as we all, whether you go to chat GPT as a consumer or cloud or perplexity, guess what we're all still doing on our iPhones. And I think that that iPhone for the consumer or the iPad, etc. Are going to be the device that we use. I mean, we don't want another device for AI And I think that Where Apple continues to be in pole position is their whole foundation is around security. And so I think as more and more consumers use AI, they will use it on these phones. So I think it's great that it's gone up. The balance sheet is great. And so I think that investors will just continue to reward this company with the multiple it deserves.
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A
They better look, they got to live up to this multiple, right? The multiple is historically rich, isn't it? Joe Multitude on multiple streaks.
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C
The multiple is historically rich. As you know, I have been aggressively buying this since March 24, 252 and a half. So in a recent conversation I had with someone, they challenged me on the reasoning behind it. And I started to talk about how the Siri app is going to interface with LLMs and the iPhone 18. They just looked at me and they said, okay, you're at a point now where it's becoming momentum. And that's absolutely correct. If you think about performance in the second quarter for the Max 7, you have Alphabet leading at like 24.5%. Nvidia's at 24%. And then you have Apple at 22 and a half percent out. Apple has not been a momentum stock over the last two years. The M2 ETF, it's not in the M2 ETF.
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A
So Apple, that was a good while it wasn't in the Joti and that's it.
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C
That is correct. But we got ahead of them, Scott. So it is one right now becoming more momentum oriented than it is fundamental. We know the story. I'm not buying anymore. I made my last purchase. I'm comfortable with what I have. We'll see what delivers next week when you're out there.
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A
There's been some good momentum now in some parts of software. Again, we got some cyber. How do you like the cyber trade, Shan? Because we have another big earnings report coming up. It's CrowdStrike after the bell tonight.
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D
Well, I think it's interesting, Scott, to see, see, we obviously have seen a rally in software and I think that's based on expectations of AI being either potentially less disarming, intermediating or I think more appropriately how these software companies are going to utilize AI. And we see that with CrowdStrike and you know, before, you know, six months, nine months ago, Scott, we were talking about the importance of cybersecurity. We're still in a, in a geopolitical, politically tense environment that to Steve's point, isn't getting any better anytime soon. So I do think there's going to start to be some appropriate differentiation and dispersion. And so, you know, I think cyber is an area where you should feel pretty comfortable even from a company perspective, that you can't replace CrowdStrike with, you know, Anthropic for most companies.
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A
Well, Britain, CrowdStrike's up 65% in a month. I know the chips are getting all the conversation. 65% in a month. Month is CrowdStrike. Palo Alto 57 Fortnet 70. You own the bug, which obviously contains a lot of these.
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F
Yeah, it's interesting. I think, you know, sometimes a lot of times trading can be very destructive to a portfolio's returns. And I was looking back at bug, which I own, and at one point this year it was down 20% year to date. It is now up 20% year to date. So just sitting still was the right thing to do. And I think that what happened when the mythos or methods are we going to call it came out that scared everybody. But reality, the crowdstrikes of Palo Altos are actually using that to, to get the bugs out and then, you know, deploy that, deploy that, you know, out there in the wild. I just continue to think that cybersecurity is a secular growth trend and investors got an opportunity earlier this year to buy it when the market got scared about software. But I think you can continue to see the secular trend in these names. So that's why I've been a long term owner of bug, because I can just sit here and sit still and
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A
watch Compound Joe, I mean Palo Alto reminded us of that yesterday with the earnings word. The stock's down near 5% today. But I told you about the huge move that it had into that print targets go to three. 325 is the highest from Wells today. You got 323. 15, 300. But 325 tops the list today on the back of that earnings report.
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C
And I want back in, at least personally to the cyber Trade, whether it's CrowdStrike, whether it's Palo Alto. So I'm welcoming the decline that we're seeing. And this decline, quite candidly is rather modest given the price appreciation that we've seen here over the last month. The of really since April 10th. Nothing wrong with Palo Alto's quarter. The firewall growth was really robust. You're talking about AI threats that are increasing cyber budgets for governments and for the enterprise space. It was reflected in a beat, it was reflected in a raise. But guess what? The analyst community looked at the raise and they said maybe that's not Enough, given the way the stock is priced for. For perfection. So the weaker hands are moving to the sidelines. Let them do that on the other side. I'll take a position somewhere here in Palo Alto or CrowdStrike because I think it's a secular story.
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A
Why don't you have any exposure here?
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E
I don't, but I'd like to get in the decline further. Obviously I missed it. What I like about the group is that there's a moat around the incumbents because that's one place you're not going to trust. A new entry into the group.
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A
Group.
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E
That's the last place you can trust. Cyber number one. Number two, you need the balance sheet. You need the size of the company to compete with the Mythos to compete with Anthropic. And Mythos is too expensive to run right now for four companies, so they got to bring down that cost. But the point is the incumbents could be the winners. And I think that there's enough out there in the US if they ever got to where China is on cyber spending, that alone would drive this whole group. We lagged them so by such a wide margin.
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A
So you think that the concerns that the moats that you, you mentioned may have been breached by the anthropics of the world were, were overblown. I mean, the street. I do come back to that perspective too.
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E
I do. I do. And, and. But you know, there's room for more. More than one winner. It's very, very rare to have one winner in any industry. You know, Microsoft's got a large market share obviously in office, but you're going to see that maybe, you know, melt away somewhat, but away from them. I defy anybody say, okay, we've got a lock on the industry and that's not going to be Anthropic. Stock can be open.
- [26:16]
A
All right. We are getting more details this hour about the space X IPO setting the terms now for its upcoming offering. Leslie Picker following the money. She joins us next.
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B
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A
I welcome back SpaceX setting terms for its upcoming IPO. And Leslie Picker is here at post nine with the details that we need to know about because we're excited about this one. We know our viewing audience is as well. So what are we learning?
- [27:31]
G
Well, we know that Elon Musk is known for doing things somewhat unconventionally and this IPO process is no exception. Along with his team, he's decided to market just, just one price to investors instead of a range. That price, I am told, is $135 per share and the plan is to offer 555.6 million of them. Those details are expected to come in a public filing in about four hours from now. The total offering size amounts to $75 billion, which would be triple that of Alibaba, the current record holder for US listings. I'm told the $135 price tag implies a fully diluted valuation of 1.75 trillion. That valuation would include consideration from the EchoStar agreement to purchase spectrum licenses, as well as a potential acquisition of Courser. I'm told it does not include much of the 1 billion performance based shares granted to Musk. That vest when the company establishes a permanent human colony on Mars with at least 1 million inhabitants. I'm told that the fixed price was chosen in lieu of a range due to the depth of the testing the waters process with institutional investors in recent weeks. But the big wild card, of course, will be retail, which is expected to comprise about 30% of the offering. That feedback will be collected when the roadshow kicks off, although it can be harder to assess because that cohort is so fragmented.
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A
Scott, we still thinking late next week is what the market is sort of.
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G
Yeah, yeah. We would expect an official price. It seems like the fixed price it is, is subject to change, though. They could still opt to move it up or down based on, you know, that, that feedback that they get during the roadshow. But the official price should come next Thursday with trading on and its debut on Friday. And of course this one's listed at the nasdaq.
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A
Weiss, what do you make of the fixed price? I mean, you've taken a lot of companies public in your, in your day.
- [29:18]
E
Yeah, your well seasoned day. Look, it's, you know, we're talking to a lot of space X investors of which I'm not one, unfortunately. It's not what we do that, you know, in terms of buying privates that we can't value and that's probably. You can't value this. There's no way. It's a question of always who's the marginal buyer when you price. Now, everybody that I talk to pretty much not 100%, but most by overwhelming majority are looking for an exit when locked ups over. So when it goes into the index, it's not as if these large mutual funds don't have an ownership stake in space X already. So the add on buying for it to go in the index because so
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A
many have already already bought.
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E
Exactly. In the private.
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A
In the privates.
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E
Right. So we don't know what the appetite is when it goes into the index. Now it could be in different funds, of course, and likely is. So I think that, that buying will have to drive it most. So. So look, it really is a crapshoot as to how this one trades. Any. Anything you say is a guess. We've never seen anything close to a $75 billion IPO. I think the large we've seen before is 10 billion with a large part of the, of the constituents who would buy this stuff already having bought it private. There's been unending opportunities to do that.
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A
You talked to David Solomon. Yes. Today about the absorption of, of these IPOs. Yes, right. What was the gist of what he told you about that?
- [30:45]
G
Well, he basically said that there is, there is more greed than fear out there. Kind of talking about just this insatiable, insatiable demand for all of these equity issuances. Not just these mega IPOs that we're talking about, but also Alphabet, which just this morning upsized its equity offering to be about $85 billion. You got 85 billion there, 75 billion from Space X. We don't know at this point what anthropic or potentially open air will look to raise, but that's a lot of supply hitting the market. And I asked him, you know, is there essentially demand? What do you think is the impact of all this? And he said, well, you know, there's more, more greed out there than fear. So that would suggest. Yes. But then I followed up and I said, but how quickly can something like that turn? Because that's market psychology. And he said very quickly.
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E
Yeah, and if you take a look at. Sorry, I'm sorry. If you take a look at the biotech industry, every time it's had a big bull cycle, it's always killed it. Is supply coming on, number one thing. So we just don't know this is going to. And then we have anthropic and open air.
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A
That's why there's the race test to
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C
be right at the front of the
- [31:51]
A
line or at least towards the front. You don't want to be in the back of the line after maybe sentiment has turned and you know, These megadeals have been absorbed. And then you sitting there at the end of the line saying, don't forget about me.
- [32:05]
D
I think the important point here, though, is that if you think about the institutional lockups that Steve was, was referencing and then you think about the timing, Scott, of when this stock is likely to hit its full position in the S&P 500 from a free float perspective, there's alignment there. And so what you could see is you could see in some institutional buyers or previous institutional holders there are going to want to get their liquidity. They've been waiting for a long time. But it could be, you know, at the same time a coincident in this free float with the S&P 500 adding those passive buyers into the mix on the retail side.
- [32:36]
A
Last a quick.
- [32:37]
C
Yeah, I think the difficulty here is going to be for, for portfolio managers because this is going to make a narrow market even more narrower. So it is going to be incredibly concentrated because here you are adding another technology conglomerate. And I think the other story is just going to be does Elon Musk become a trillionaire off of this? I think $138 is the figure that it has to get to to make him a trillionaire. So I'm sure that'll be a headline in the story.
- [33:01]
A
Yeah. Oh, I'm sure it will, Leslie. Thank you very much. It's good, it's good having you here as we continue to chase this story again, we'll be, we'll be speaking with John Waldron of Goldman coming up on closing bell. I'm looking forward to that. I was looking for this stat, but I can't pull it up. I can't pull it up it up quickly enough. Angelica Peebles has the CNBC news update.
- [33:17]
H
Hey, Scott. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu downplayed any tension with President Trump, telling our Sarah Eisen today that he and the president have tactical disagreements but agree on the main things, including preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.
- [33:33]
A
We've always found a way. We have so many agreements. We agree on the main things.
- [33:37]
E
We want to get Iran the nuclear program in Iran finished.
- [33:41]
A
We want to make sure that Iran doesn't pose a threat to Israel, to the Middle east, to America.
- [33:47]
H
Ukrainian drones struck an oil terminal in St. Petersburg, Russia, overnight, just hours before President Vladimir Putin's signature economic forum in the city. Hundreds of drones hit several Russian cities with Ukraine claiming to have struck a naval warship and other key assets across the country. It comes as Kiev carried out its largest assault on Moscow in more than more than year last month. And the US is reportedly investigating whether former New York representative Jorge Santos bet on a prediction market about his attendance at February's State of the Union address. People familiar with the matter told the New York Times that Kelshi detected that Santos bet that he would not be at the speech after previously saying in a video that he would be watching from the House gallery. Scott, back over to.
- [34:30]
A
All right, Angelica, thank you Angelic peoples. I found the stat that I was looking for just quickly because three companies, SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic are about to IPO at a higher combined value than all 2600.com IPOs from 95 to 2000 combined.
- [34:47]
C
Money's going to come from somewhere concentrated. Concentrated, concentrated. Maybe that's why people are selling bitcoin.
- [34:53]
A
Concentration. All right, probably. One firm today says buy the first pullback in a big retail name. We'll tell you which one it is next. Let's do some calls. Joe. Today BTIG says to Walmart on the go get list. Okay. They put it on go get it reiterated by 145. The pullback is a buying opportunity. They suggest. You agree?
- [35:29]
C
Well, if you're. Yeah, I do. From the standpoint, if you're a technician, it's right at the 200 day moving average it looks like it's support. Fundamentally the company is still capturing market share in a environment where the consumer is price conscious. Overall, the EPS growth was markedly strong in 2025 at 13%. That's because beginning to moderate. So the, the fundamental story, a really strong fundamental story in 25 was kind of built into the stock already. The valuation got a little bit rich. What I like is we're working off at extreme valuation. It was 46 times. Now it's below 40 times. And then the one interesting note of all of this is the Fortune 500 list. Thirteen consecutive years, Walmart, number one company in the U.S. no longer. Amazon takes them.
- [36:16]
A
All right. Also what did you think of the earnings? Because they beat, they raised, the stock is down. You did get target cuts from Morgan Stanley. They still like it. Barclays likes it. But they cut the target as well. So you're looking in the mid-600 now. Both were at 7 or above. They bring it down a little bit. What's your take?
- [36:35]
C
So obviously this is a name that I'm watching intently. It's a name that we've owned since July, July of 2025. I dug deeply into what these earnings look like and the concern you have is in the back half of 26. It looks like you see a much weaker environment for Ulta. So that's the reason why the stock is struggling. If you pull the lens back over the last 52 weeks, it's now basically unchanged, which is remarkable for a stock that was well above 700 as it has clearly lost its momentum.
- [37:07]
A
Weiss, you like Lido, she got out of it a few weeks ago. It was downgraded. Today the target's 140. We could take a look at the stock. It was 185. So expectations have come in at least at Jefferies today as they move it to hold from a buy.
- [37:19]
E
Yeah, I basically think it hangs out here. There are a couple of big issues here. Number one is the government still after all these companies, consulting companies to, to lower their costs. Number two, two, they've got a big health care contract with the veterans, veteran hospitals and until that society overhang. So look, management's doing the best job they possibly do. I can't imagine anybody that see doing a better job. But you have this, you have Booz Allen and a bunch of others.
- [37:48]
A
You're watching the exchanges. CME. Yeah, neutral today, 310 UBS.
- [37:52]
C
Well, you have this perpetual futures news that's giving a little bit of trepidation to those that are holders of names like ICE and cme. Both of those names are struggling. You're also seeing an environment where the futures market, you have extreme volatility and inconsistent trends as it relates to oil. Tell me what the trend really looks like here over the last six weeks. It looks like it's up, it looks like it's down. And then you're seeing a significant unwind in precious metals. I still think CIBO is the better trade of all the exchange.
- [38:22]
A
All right, quick break. And Santoli, he's on the other side. Senior markets commentator and overtime co anchor Mike Santoli here at post nine for his midday word. Nice to see you. I feel like the, the word of the last couple weeks has been parabolic. I feel like the word of the next two might be supply. You talk about. Yeah, you know the Alphabet offering here. SpaceX got like 85 billion, 75 billion. And then thinking about anthropic and open and whether the market can absorb all of this. How are you thinking about it?
- [38:57]
I
I'm 100% sure the market can absorb all of it. The question is whether people are a little bit apprehensive in trying to pre sell and shuffle things around just to make room for it. I think one of the unique things about this supply wave with those big IPOs unlike 2021 one, which was a much bigger volume of new supply relative to market cap, was that that was a lot of sparks and early stage stuff. And no large cap manager who wanted to just own the broad, you know, assets that reflect the index needed to sell stuff to buy into those things. And so that's a difference there. I also think it's happening right on time, which is to say this market is needed to kind of have its main themes cool off a little bit to see if there was anything more it could rotate into. The low today, 7550ish.
- [39:45]
C
It's half a percent up from where
- [39:47]
I
we were three weeks ago. It feels like we've been making new highs every day. You kind of have incrementally trickling though, but you're kind of consolidating under the surface. That's the best case scenario as opposed to momentum reversal. Everybody gets whipsawed. Everyone has to de risk. That's what we're not seeing yet. But you have to be on alert.
- [40:03]
A
Yeah, I mean Joe's made the point earlier. The these IPOs like Space X, it just sort of makes things a little more, even more concentrated.
- [40:09]
I
Yeah, we concentrated and also it's going to inject more volatility and they're going to be like expensive at best, if not like, you know, capital burning. So it's, it's definitely a different dynamic. It creates a little bit more of a, again, erratic flow into the mega caps.
- [40:26]
A
All right, I'll see you on closing bell. Good stuff, Mike. Thanks. We're playing some options action next. Oliver Renick is at Placebo in Chicago. Talk to him next. All right, welcome back. Emerging markets under some pressure today. Oliver Renick is tracking the options action live from CBOE in Chicago. What do we see today?
- [41:00]
J
Hey, Scott. The s and P500 is on a nine day winning streak that might be ending today. But international stocks have mostly been left behind the past week. The Ex US and Canada fund EFA is stuck below highs first made in February. China stocks have had a half dozen false starts all year. And Brazilian stocks, which were up 80, 30% rather going in into April, have shaved off most of those gains. Options traders look eager to take the other side of this price action though with flows leaning bullish in Chinese ETFs like K Web where 8 of the top 10 most active contracts are calls as well as in Brazilian ETF EWZ where calls outpace puts 10 to 1. What's also notable though is where we don't see confidence Namely South Korean etf. Ew, yes, which has doubled this year on the back of big semiconductor gains. Puts outpace calls there at a rate of 5 to 1, which might seem shocking if we hadn't been seeing this exact type of hedging in US Listed semiconductors, which ironically is really the only thing working today. Scott.
- [42:07]
A
Okay, Oliver, thanks for that good setup. I appreciate it. I'll see you at three, I think. Oliver Renick at CBO in Chicago. Shankar. Emerging markets like them do, definitely do.
- [42:16]
D
I think that we're becoming increasingly constructive on China given the massive amount of investment that they're going to do in AI. A little bit more concern, perhaps a little less constructive on India given energy concerns and considerations. But if you look at what's going to likely happen with the dollar and kind of a weaker tone in the second half of the year, M is a great way to diversify away from that.
- [42:37]
C
Brazil's rolled over. The real emerging market to stay focused on is obviously the Cosby. That's where the trade related to SK, Hynix and Samsung is. Got a little bit of a pullback right now. But you're seeing the EW Y, which is South Korea, and the dram, which is the DRAM etf. They're proxies for this entire power B.
- [42:57]
A
Pull up the EWI longer than intraday, guys, please.
- [43:00]
C
Over the last. Over the last year it's up 200 and plus. Over one year it's up 100%. I know that for sure so far this year, up 240% over last year. But it's become a proxy for the memory, the semiconductor. The semiconductor equipment trade, just like DRAM is actually becoming that as well with $16 billion in AUM.
- [43:20]
E
Now, would you have that chart if you compare it to Micron? Right.
- [43:26]
C
There's a very high correlation because I mean, SK
- [43:30]
A
Identical. Yeah, right.
- [43:31]
E
I'd say one to one.
- [43:32]
C
Yeah, true.
- [43:32]
A
All right, we'll do finals after the break. Closing bell, three o' clock Eastern time. Big interview coming up. Goldman's president and chief operating officer John Waldron joins us right here, post nine. Look forward to that. Adam Parker's here today. Brian Levitt, Mark Mahaney, Keith Lerner, Alex Sherman got the Nick game tonight. Otherwise known as the NBA Finals.
- [43:57]
C
Shorter. Who do you think?
- [43:58]
A
What do you got? Well, I mean, I hope the Knicks win. I mean, what are you going to do? New York is a. New York's a better place when the Knicks are great. Okay, all right.
- [44:06]
C
Go with his heart.
- [44:07]
A
Going to throw that on the table. But the spurs are great too. I mean it's going to be, I hope it's a good series. Should be Weiss final trade.
- [44:15]
E
Yeah, I'm going with Goldman Sachs. You know, I think when analysts came with their estimates, they didn't count on them winning the SpaceX IPO, the at the market, Google and the open air IPO and who knows bound traffic. So that's the story.
- [44:29]
A
Brand, what do you have?
- [44:31]
F
Spurs and then Abbvie Abbey. The stocks breaking out up 6% over the last month. I think it's going back to 232.
- [44:39]
A
All right, I like, I like Bren representing down and down in the great state of Texas. What do you got in energy?
- [44:45]
D
We think that there is going to continue to be earnings growth.
- [44:48]
C
All right, Joey, Old Dominion Transports.
- [44:50]
A
All right, we'll see you at 3. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [45:05]
B
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the half time report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer Thursday, July
- [45:40]
C
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