Halftime Report: The Pivotal Week Ahead – Jan 23, 2026
Podcast: CNBC Halftime Report
Host: Scott Wapner
Date: January 23, 2026
Episode Overview
This episode dives into a pivotal upcoming week for US markets, focused on the looming mega-cap tech earnings (Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, Apple), ongoing Federal Reserve activity, and the sector rotation away from tech into cyclical names such as energy, materials, and industrials. CNBC’s Scott Wapner and the show's investment committee debate which tech giants have the most to prove, how capex decisions could ripple through broader markets, and discuss notable new portfolio moves. The conversation also touches on the rally in gold and silver, financial sector volatility, and concludes with reactions to key stocks like Intel and the upcoming earnings calendar.
1. The Importance of Mega-Cap Earnings (00:39–11:21)
Key Points
- Anticipation for Mega-Cap Reports: Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple lead the earnings parade. Despite tech lagging in 2026 (down 1.25% YTD), their results could set the agenda for the market’s next phase.
- Sector Rotation: Energy, materials, and industrials are leading the S&P 500, highlighting a continued broadening out from tech leadership.
- Critical Debate: Which Stock Matters Most?
- Meta’s Focus: Revenue mix, future cloud ambitions, advertising, and handling of past capex overspending.
- Apple’s AI Dilemma: Pressure is on for an AI announcement—specifically upgrades to Siri—to potentially spark a new product super-cycle.
- Amazon’s Catch-Up: After underperforming in 2025, questions surround whether it’s due for a rally as business investments ramp.
- Microsoft’s Relief Rally? Great earnings expected, but might face “sell the news” pressure as shareholders look for an exit on good results.
Memorable Quotes
- Bryn (02:16):
“Tech has had a great one, three, five and ten years, so it’s nice that some other sectors are starting to perform ... next week is going to be incredibly important.”
- Stephen Weiss (04:31):
"Apple's a completely different bet, because the bet there is will they be in AI or will they not be in AI? ... If they don't get it right this time, I think they have more riding on a problem than anybody else." (09:25)
- Jimmy (07:19):
“For the last more than a year these stocks have not been moving monolithically ... At unsynchronized times they go into the doldrums and then they rally.”
- Kevin Simpson (11:05):
“To me [these earnings] still do [matter] only because of the weighting and how much of an impact these earnings have on the Overall S&P 500.”
2. Capex, Multiples, and Market Breadth (11:21–14:31)
Key Points
- Capex as a Market Driver: Market is assuming that mega-cap capex plans will continue, feeding growth for auxiliary sectors (industrials, materials, financials).
- Warning Signs: If any big tech signals a reduction in capex, there could be negative ripple effects on “the other 493” S&P stocks that rely on this spending.
- Earnings Growth vs. Multiple Expansion: When removing Nvidia and Broadcom, the rest of the Mag 7 are expected to deliver only ~13% EPS growth—raising questions about further multiple expansion.
Quotes
- Bryn (13:14):
“If they continue to do the capex and margins start to continue to come down, … you have a multiple issue because … the margin story is what has powered these companies for the last decade.”
3. Portfolio Shifts: New Buys and Covered Calls (14:31–21:36)
Key Points
- “Run it Hot” Playbook: The committee discusses new buys in cyclicals—Eagle Materials (EXP), Top Build Corp (insulation), and QXO—with a growth rather than value orientation.
- Kevin Simpson (15:51): “Just a very strong opportunity set in the building sector … these material companies can really benefit from that spend.”
- Jimmy (17:25): “Materials like Top Build or Eagle ... normally found in value portfolios, but this is going to be a growth industry if [policy] strategies work.”
- Covered Calls: Simpson details covered calls written on Caterpillar (CAT) and RTX to “harvest volatility,” not out of bearishness, but to make extra returns in hot sectors.
- Financials Under Pressure:
- Bryn buys Capital One after perceived overreaction to political headline risk and praises management’s execution and recent M&A.
- Simpson adds Bank of America to the growth portfolio following a sell-off on weak guidance despite good earnings.
4. Global Market Flow & International Themes (23:37–26:39)
Key Points
- Record Highs in Emerging Markets: Despite fears of “Sell America” trends, capital flows are steady, and international bourses (Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico) are strongly outperforming the S&P 500.
- Skepticism About Lasting US Weakness: Both Jimmy and Stephen Weiss highlight that predictions of a permanent shift away from US market dominance are likely premature.
Quotes
- Jimmy (25:50):
“[Mark Carney says] the US-led world order is not just undergoing transition, but it’s permanently rupturing ... Right now, we as a firm don’t think that the US Led economy is actually going to rupture permanently.”
5. Precious Metals Surge: Gold & Silver (28:22–32:41)
Key Points
- Gold Hits New Highs: Gold eclipses $5,000, silver over $100—Bill Baruch joins to explain portfolio moves (rotating from CEF to straight gold via OU&Z, expecting gold to outperform silver short term).
- Safe-Haven Demand: Weiss sees both momentum and “fear” trades pushing gold further, but cautions of a bubble risk (cf. Bitcoin). Simpson prefers gold miners for yield and leverage.
Quotes
- Bill Baruch (29:23):
“I want to just see here, [if] gold does outperform, and I don't want to take that risk off the table ... CEF has outperformed GLD and OU&Z by 40% over the last year.”
- Stephen Weiss (31:04):
“I hope it doesn't turn into Bitcoin 125 ... that's a very real risk.”
6. Storm Watch & Breaking News (32:43–34:21)
- Major Winter Storm: Accuweather’s Bernie Rano forecasts a disruptive storm affecting up to 200 million Americans with power outages and travel shutdowns, potentially lingering through Wednesday.
7. Stock Moves and Quick Hits (35:54–44:17)
Intel’s Disappointment (35:54–37:40)
- Stock tanks 16% on weak outlook. Simpson calls Intel a “meme trade” after a parabolic run, citing slow expected growth and advises against chasing on weakness.
Medtronic New Buy (37:44–38:42)
- Attractive demographics, dividend growth, free cash flow—positioned for aging US population.
Disney Succession (38:42–39:29)
- CEO transition set for “early 2026,” seen as a lingering overhang for the stock.
SLB (Schlumberger) & Energy (39:29–40:02)
- SLB beats and hikes dividend: Simpson bullish on energy for 2026, adding energy names after prior success with Chevron, Conoco, Marathon.
8. Market Sentiment and Fed Watch (40:34–42:13)
- Santoli Observations: Despite the “run it hot” trade working and consensus favoring cyclicals, there’s a counter-trend bounce in tech. Macro cross-currents remain, with Fed risk seen as low in the near term due to market expectations and fiscal support.
9. Earnings Calendar & Final Trades (43:20–46:33)
Upcoming Reports
- Tesla (Wed): Bryn expects weak results (~-38% EPS YoY) and continues to play with covered calls, highlighting Musk’s political distractions.
- IBM (Wed): Simpson expects steady results; focus on consulting arm.
- Altria, Verizon (Thur/Fri): Both discussed as high-yield, low-growth, possibly “dead money.”
- Exxon, Chevron (Fri): Jimmy likes upward commodity pressure, expects strong integrated results.
Notable Final Trades
- Bryn: Capital One—expects rebound after overblown sell-off (price target $250).
- Kevin Simpson: Medtronic—new healthcare play on margin improvement and demographics.
- Jimmy: Transocean—bullish free cash flow dynamic.
- Weiss: Caterpillar—buys dip after strength.
Conclusion
This week’s Halftime Report underscores a market in transition: mega-cap tech faces a crucial earnings test just as the leadership baton passes to cyclicals and value sectors. Portfolio managers are positioning for further broadening, but are acutely aware of the risks tied to capex, margin trends, and political headlines. Gold’s surge and storm warnings reflect an undercurrent of macro volatility. As always, the team’s debate remains fast-paced, candid, and focused on actionable ideas for navigating a pivotal week in markets.
End of Summary