CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: The Playbook for 2026
Date: January 2, 2026
Host: Courtney Reagan (in for Scott Wapner)
Panelists: Jenny Harrington, Steve Weiss, Malcolm Etheridge, Kevin Simpson

Overview

The first Halftime Report of 2026 explores the investment landscape after three consecutive years of strong equity gains. With stocks kicking off the new year near record levels, the investment committee shares their revised playbooks, outlooks, sector favorites, and individual stock picks for the year ahead. Key topics include AI's impact, labor market risks, the potential for market rotation, and strategies for risk management after robust bull runs.

Market Conditions & Sentiment ([01:01]–[03:00])

• Mixed Market Open: Dow up 0.1%, S&P 500 down 0.1%, Nasdaq down 0.3%.
• 2025 Recap: Nasdaq gained 20% in 2025; Dow up 13%.

Key Question

Courtney Reagan: Will market leadership persist in 2026, or is rotation on deck?

Investment Committee Outlooks

Jenny Harrington: "Take Some Risk Off" ([01:50])

• Skepticism of Consensus: Troubled by widespread analyst optimism (“Every Wall Street analyst now predicts a stock rally in 2026.”)
• Labor Market Risks: Concerns about forward-looking economic indicators, especially around AI-driven job losses and their effect on consumption (over 60% of GDP).
• Portfolio Advice:
  • Reduce risk after three strong years.
  • Rotate from high-growth/expensive names into better-value or international stocks.
  • Consider some fixed income allocation.

Notable Quote:

“I’m spooked from a behavioral perspective… Never in my 30+ years have I ever seen pure consensus play out as expected.”
— Jenny Harrington, [01:50]

Kevin Simpson: "Selectivity and Stock Picking Critical" ([04:59])

• Cautious Optimism: Expects a slow grind higher, with more volatility and less enthusiasm than recent years.
• Active Management: Believes “stock selection will be super important,” and passive allocation alone won't outperform.

Notable Quote:

“You can’t just say AI on an earnings call and expect your stock to move... Selectivity is crucial.”
— Kevin Simpson, [05:45]

Malcolm Etheridge: "Retail Has Tapped Out, Bitcoin Signals" ([06:35])

• Individual Investor Strain: Notes selling pressure and retail exhaustion, citing Bitcoin as a sentiment barometer—the recent $3B sell-off by long-term holders is a warning sign about retail investors’ liquidity.
• De-risking: Suggests 2026 is a prudent time to reduce risk after outsized gains.

Notable Quote:

“Bitcoin is the barometer on where the Retail Investors’ Fear and Greed index really is.”
— Malcolm Etheridge, [07:20]

Steve Weiss: "Stay with AI and Productivity Trends" ([10:18])

• Skeptical of Calendar Effects: Doesn’t buy the “new year, new story” narrative; expects trends from 2025 to persist.
• AI as a Tailwind: Believes the AI and tech investment wave is far from over, but notes widening wealth disparities and productivity gains.
• Top Picks: Taiwan Semiconductor remains his favorite; expects market breadth to improve, but not at the expense of AI leaders.

Notable Quote:

“It’s too soon to call for the death or major slowing of AI… this will continue to lead to laying off jobs, drive productivity, but widen the chasm between haves and have nots.”
— Steve Weiss, [11:11]

2026 Playbook: Top Stock Picks and Strategies

Kevin Simpson ([13:56])

• Micron (MU): Still in early stages of AI-driven memory cycle. “They can’t meet demand.”
• Robinhood (HOOD): Likes maturation, new prediction market business, wealth management pivot.
• Top 2026 Pick: Amazon (AMZN); expects reversal of 2025’s underperformance due to operational and margin improvements.

“You just have to think about [Amazon] as playing catch up… There’s a lot of levers to pull.”
— Kevin Simpson, [15:12]

Malcolm Etheridge ([16:05])

• Amazon (AMZN): Bullish due to robotics-driven warehouse efficiencies and expected cost savings leading to profit expansion.
• Key stat: Up to $4B savings, 600,000 warehouse jobs potentially replaced.

Jenny Harrington ([17:15])

• FISERV (FISV): Despite 2025 losses (-67%), believes new management and low valuation justify holding on; sees “minting cash flow” and “real potential.”
• 2026 Top Pick: Sabra Health Care (SBRA).
  • 12x FFO, 6.5% dividend yield, senior housing/skilled nursing—huge demographic tailwinds and “no threat from AI.”

“If anything, AI stands to be a wild benefit [for senior care].”
— Jenny Harrington, [20:10]

Malcolm Etheridge ([20:54])

• Visa (V): “Finally pulled the trigger” due to recent stablecoin/crypto remittance partnerships (with Circle). Sees major disruption opportunities in cross-border payments.

“The market didn’t really seem to react to [the stablecoin partnership]... This story isn’t really baked into the price yet.”
— Malcolm Etheridge, [21:50]

• Kevin Simpson agrees: “Offense and defense… It’s an exciting opportunity that is not baked into the stock in any way, shape, or form.” ([22:51])

Steve Weiss ([23:36], [45:08])

• Financials/Banks: Likes Goldman Sachs, seeing banks as major beneficiaries of M&A and capital market revival in a lower-rate, deregulated environment. “Excellent condition.”
• Final Trade: Taiwan Semi (TSMC) – “If you don’t want to pick the best AI chip, buy the company that makes them all.”

Sector Discussion: Metals & Commodities ([34:53]–[38:08])

• Precious Metals: Gold/Silver had best year since the 1970s.
• Jenny Harrington: Fundamental portfolio sticks with iron ore/copper (Anglo, Rio Tinto, Freeport); not shifting into gold/silver stocks here—sees technical signals for silver being “overextended.”
• Kevin Simpson: Agnico Eagle (AEM) gold miner—“dividend bump, efficient operator, still like gold.”

Notable Analyst Calls ([40:18]–[42:56])

• Mike Santoli (CNBC):

  • “No sea change in market sentiment; still feels like late December.”
  • Bulls have history on their side (70% odds of an up year if no recession).
  • Warns investors to “be alert” to surprises given strong bullish consensus and stretched valuations.

• BTIG Picks:

  • Zscaler, Netskope (Malcolm: bullish on both as cybercrime remains a secular growth theme).
  • Marriott (Jenny): “Permanent compounder, asset-light model, K-shaped economy benefits.”
  • Caterpillar (Weiss): “AI/data center investments, momentum, de-cyclicality.”

Trade Updates ([27:13]–[30:44])

• Kevin Simpson:
  • Boeing (added again): Now a real investment, not just a turnaround. Defense/aerospace tailwinds, order backlog, quality focus.
  • Intel (new buy): Small position; likes government/Nvidia investment in Intel’s recovery. “If it works, tremendous upside.”
• Steve Weiss:
  • FTA Aviation: Unique aerospace play, strong balance sheet, moving into gas turbines.

Investment Resolutions for 2026 ([43:08])

• Kevin Simpson: Fewer, higher-quality holdings; “trim the portfolio and make it count.”
• Jenny Harrington: Let winners run longer, avoid selling at full valuation too soon.
• Malcolm Etheridge: Be ready to “buy with a bucket, not a thimble” when volatility provides opportunities.
• Steve Weiss: “No resolution; what I’m doing works—listen to others but trust yourself.”

Final Trades ([45:08])

• Steve Weiss: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC)
• Kevin Simpson: Amazon (AMZN)
• Malcolm Etheridge: Morgan Stanley (MS)
• Jenny Harrington: ConAgra (CAG – consumer staples, “huge underperformers,” sees 8.1% dividend yield opportunity)

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Jenny Harrington: “Never in my 30+ years have I ever seen pure consensus play out as expected.” ([01:50])

• Kevin Simpson: “Selectivity is crucial. You can’t just say AI...” ([05:45])

• Malcolm Etheridge: “Bitcoin is the barometer on where the Retail Investors’ Fear and Greed index really is.” ([07:20])

• Steve Weiss: “It’s too soon to call for the death or major slowing of AI.” ([11:11])

• Lighter Note: Fashion ribbing as the panel wraps up – Jenny: "I'd pick on you. Kevin is always dapper..." ([32:03])

Summary Table: 2026 Top Picks & Themes

| Panelist | Top 2026 Pick | Thematic Rationale | |---------------------|-------------------------|------------------------------------------------| | Jenny Harrington | Sabra Health Care (SBRA)| Demographic tailwinds; AI not a threat | | Kevin Simpson | Amazon (AMZN) | Leadership catch-up, margin expansion | | Malcolm Etheridge | Visa (V) | Fintech innovation, remittance disruption | | Steve Weiss | Taiwan Semi (TSMC) | AI chip “arms dealer” with broad exposure |

Conclusion

The investment committee enters 2026 cautious but optimistic, united in the view that blanket bullishness is risky and selectivity will be rewarded. AI, labor market disruption, and shifting consumption are focal points. Each expert outlines a “playbook” emphasizing risk management, active stock-picking, and careful attention to fundamental, technical, and macroeconomic signals.

For those seeking actionable 2026 insights, this episode dives deep into both the risk and opportunity as Wall Street’s expectations soar and history counsels prudence.