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Halftime Report
The Playbook for 2026 1/2/26
00:44:17
Courtney Reagan and the Investment Committee debate the setup for stocks in 2026 and how you should position your portfolio. Plus, the desk give you their top picks for 2026 and explain why these names are going higher. And, the Committee shares their latest portfolio moves. Investment Committee Disclosures
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B
Thank you, Sarah and David. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I am Courtney Reagan in today for Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, new year, new strategy. The investment committee is standing by with their playbooks after the third straight year of double digit gains for stocks. Joining me for the hour today, Jenny Harrington, Steve Weiss, Malcolm Etheridge and Kevin Simpson. Let's get you a quick check on markets here on the very first trading day of 2026. That feels kind of crazy to say. I can't believe it. We are mixed here, but just marginally so, relatively FL with the Dow industrials higher by just about a tenth of a percent S&P 500 down a tenth of a percent and the Nasdaq Composite down about 1/3 of a percent. Jenny, it's a pleasure to be here with you today. So when we're starting off with 2026, do you think we're going to see the winners continue to win, the losers continue to lose? You have the Nasdaq that gained 20% in 2025, but the Dow just up 13%?
- [01:51]
E
No, I don't think so. I think we're going to see some real shifts, some real broadening and some real changes in the new year. We one of the things that I'm worried about, I mean that not only at the stock level, Courtney, but I mean that at the market level, too. And I'll tell you like I'm spooked. And I'll tell you what I'm spooked by. I'm spooked from a behavioral perspective. There was an article in Bloomberg I Don't know if you saw it a day or two ago. And this is the headline. Every Wall street analyst now predicts a stock rally in 2026. Never in my 30 plus years in this business have I ever seen pure consensus play out as expected. So that spooks me a lot that everybody's so on the same path, you know, and you see, oh, what's my best idea for next year? Everyone's best ideas are Microsoft, Amazon, whatever worked. That, that doesn't sit well with me. And I look at this and I keep hearing people say, well, the economic data is terrific, but the economic data we have is backward looking. And I think people are failing to look forward strongly enough into this new year. There was, there was a guy named Sal Khan on, on Wednesday morning. Did you hear that? I did, yeah. And he was talking about this job apocalypse and he was talking about how there's like 5 to 6 million drivers in the US and we all know Waymo and driverless is coming. That's really bad. He was talking about like call centers in, where was it Indonesia or the Philippines where they're going to lay off 80% of the people. And then even this morning there was another person on who, I don't know who as I was driving, but they were saying that AI is going to enable companies with a thousand employees to take over things like Accenture, 100 employees to take over SAS. I'm really worried about what the labor market looks like going into this year. And you keep hearing people say, well, labor is still strong, wage growth is still high, but, but that's backward looking. And so this super rosy outlook coupled with me seeing that the labor market could be tough and knowing that over 60% of GDP is driven by consumption, like what if people lose their jobs? What if they can't continue to consume at this rate? I get a little bit sketched out. So where I end up for this year is I think you should take risk off the table. We've had three fabulous years. That doesn't mean I'm super bearish. It doesn't mean I think a major bear market's coming. But if you've had a great year, take some risk off the table. Whatever form that's going to come to you in. Maybe you want to take a little bit out and switch strategies and go from super high growth and what's worked into something that's just a better valuation. Maybe you want to put more into international, maybe, maybe you do want to add to fixed income. But I think that the playbook for this year is going to. Is going to be different than what it was for the year ahead. And everyone seems to just be riding the same old train.
- [04:23]
B
Very interesting. Take a little risk off the table. I mean, Kevin, as Jenny's talking about the job market can a cord annuity is talking about the closing weeks of 2025, giving a gift to 2026, saying we have a solid economy with just enough labor market weakness to ensure ongoing rate cuts. So they're sort of heartened by maybe some of the labor market weakness. What do you make about the setup for 2026 when you're looking at the broader economy and maybe the picture for jobs that Jenny brought up, but also what the world is going to look like as a technology continues to move forward?
- [04:59]
C
Yeah, I listen to Jenny's comments and I think they have a lot of value. I'm just not sure that we're there yet. So when you look at consensus, that's the scary part because I kind of lean into that at the moment. But I think the setup is still what we've seen for 2025, maybe just not with the same level of enthusiasm that we had. The trade is still real, it's still growing. Even if it's growing more slowly. We will probably see an interest rate cut in 2026, maybe two, but that's not a rate cutting cycle. And lastly, the economic growth, and I know it's backward looking, has been decent. So the setup for the first part of the year at least I think is a continuation of what we've seen in 2025. But what I do like about Jenny's comments and where we're on the same page is that things are not going to be quite as easy. You can't just say AI and an earnings call and expect your stock to move marginally, substantially, incredibly higher. It might not move at all. So I think stock selection will be super important selectivity and I think that really lends itself to professional and active management. So I'm excited to be here for 2026. I think it's going to be a great year. And I say that as someone who's anticipating volatility and maybe a slow grind higher.
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B
That's interesting. I mean, Malcolm too, I think I've heard from a lot of the stock analysts, even if Jenny is saying maybe they're overly bullish for her liking when everybody thinks we're going to move higher from here and we know we have these elevated valuations, but I'm also hearing a lot of them to Kevin's point, say, but stock picking is going to be important. You're going to have to be selective. Where do you sit as you're opening up the playbook for your strategy for 2026?
- [06:36]
D
Well, first of all, Courtney, I don't know if today's Jenny's birthday or what, but I'm about to say something nice about her too, because one of the last times I was on with her, she said something that got my attention and I didn't really know. I didn't really have any details on how true it was at the moment, but it's a thread I've been pulling ever since. It's been a few weeks, but Jenny was saying something about the fact that it seems as if the individual investor, the retail investor, is running out of capacity to spend and and they're having to sell out of things like Palantir and Nvidia and anything else that's been going up really well up and to the right for retail investors for the year just to be able to raise cash to make ends meet. And at the time I wasn't really too sure how true that was. But what I've been paying attention to is Bitcoin. And because I think that Bitcoin is the barometer on where the Retail Investors Fear and Greed index really is. The VIX is for the institutional investor. Great job there. But I think bitcoin is a better read on where the individual investor falls and what we've been looking at since about October, around the time I think the data came through that Jenny was looking at and saying that there's a lot of bitcoin selling that's been done by long term holders. So Bloomberg had a piece out a couple weeks ago that I thought was very interesting where something like $3 billion worth of Bitcoin holdings that are long term holdings, these are the individual tokens, not the ETFs have made their way into circulation for the first time and it was at the fastest PA this has happened in the last five years. And so I know from the crypto community your bitcoin holdings are usually the last thing that you want to have to sell, especially now in a year where the IRS is actually doing a better job of tracking the cap gains on those things. So I think it's very telling that those types of securities are making their way into circulation. The selling is happening there and maybe to the point that I think Jenny and Kevin have been making, 2026 probably is not going to be the party up and to the right. The way that it was the last three years, probably a good time to be looking at De Risking.
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E
Malcolm, you know what it was? I was, when we were on together, I said it was MicroStrategy that I was looking at. And I'd been watching MicroStrategy since July. Yeah. Because I'd seen all that money come out. So it was exactly where you're at now, which is Bitcoin. And to me, I was saying that day that was the canary in the coal mine that was catching my attention. I'm not actually, not actually that worried about Nvidia. I'm not that worried about Microsoft or Meta. I don't think they're very telling. But I think that MicroStrategy does show where like a huge base of investors are and that they are feeling the pinch and that they are running out of dollars. And so when I worry about people losing their jobs more and more in the coming year, I think this is all going to be. Be right in our face. You know, people always ask us what you know, what do you see as the next thing that's going to really derail the market? What's going to cause the next black swan? I always think it's a dumb question because it wouldn't be a black swan if any of us were looking at it. But I do think that the biggest risk to the market is just staring us straight in the face. And it's this huge concentration, huge correlation and the, and the risk of like all the benefits of AI creating a weak labor market.
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B
Weiss, Goldman Sachs. Tony Pascarella does think it's going to be a wilder year. List a number of reasons why, including tight corporate credit, very high P E ratios, at least when we're looking at historical standards, which we've brought up. Quantum leaps, he calls it, in the advancement of technology and astronomical I spend. But obviously that's where the winners have been concentrated in a lot of these technology areas, as evidenced by the individual names, but also the nasdaq. So, Weiss, as you're looking at the year ahead, but also maybe take into account the January effect, if you think that that's a real thing or not, where are you positioned? What's your best advice for investors opening up their portfolios for the new year?
- [10:19]
F
Yeah. Well, first of all, as Tony comments. Tony's comments, you could have taken that out of the, of the draw that you read it in to put it in last year on January 2nd. You read in the first, not a lot has changed. And I don't think a lot will change going into 27. We talked about this on the show Wednesday. Just because the calendar page has changed and you've gone to a new date to a new year, it really has no impact. With the exception of new laws and regulations that come in as effective on that date, which is not the case here, there really is no impact. So that's just really trying to create a story and a narrative. Narrative for, for what purposes? I don't know in terms of how I see the market playing out. I see the market playing out almost as it's played out in the past year. And why is that? It's because I believe AI it's too soon to call for the death or major slowing of AI, AI spend, AI investment, AI, AI tools and enhancement to the economy which will continue to lead to. To laying off jobs. I mean take some of them, notably the call centers. You know, they're their employees, they're just way, way down. So that's going to continue to happen. It will drive productivity, but it'll wide widen the chasm between the haves and the have nots. And so you're fortunate in that mostly that the haves are ones that really drive the economy. If you look at disproportionate levels as you move up into wealthier people and bigger businesses, they assume a much larger burden. California, they put out a figure today. 1% of the people account for the top 1% for 33% of the taxes. So you really got to dig down to see the impact now. It's unfortunate for them because those people have a right to live solid lives. So that means more government service for them. Which, which we should all buy into. Right. So that everybody's treated fairly. So. So in my view, I'm still in the meadows of the world. I'm still in my final trade or my trade for 26. I mentioned Wednesday show it's Taiwan semi. I continue to think that works. I think the trends work. I think there'll be some other issues, some other companies that work, you know, as the year moves on. It's not just going to be about AI, but I am fairly optimistic. I do not expect the 14% earnings growth that's being targeted to actually wind up at 14%. To me it's more than like 9%. And those cuts happen, you know, you know, slowly by slowly and don't impact the market as much. So ultimately sum up, it's a bottoms up market. Those are really the only kind of markets I look in. Sure I pay attention to macro headwinds and Tailwinds. I don't see this major object, major objects here to influence the market one way or the other. Of course, that's famous last words. But if we get a dami thing spreading through the country, which we won't because most of the country is smarter than New York and dummies, I think we'll be fine. So it should be another good year of performance. It's very difficult to have bad year, bad year performance. The market's been going up 90% of the time.
- [13:37]
B
Kevin, I want to go back to you. You're talking about stock picking. You obviously had some really good picks this last year. In 2025, you owned Micron, which gained 239% and Robinhood which was up 203%. Are those names you want to stick with into 2026 or take some of those gains off the table and spread the love around somewhere else to maybe a laggard or two?
- [13:57]
C
Yeah, it's hard to believe, Courtney, but I think that this is still just the early parts of these companies coming to fruition and maturity. You know, with respect to Micron, it's become a core holding in our growth strategy. We know that memory is cyclical, no doubt about it. But I think that the cycle here with AI can be longer and stronger from a supply and demand perspective. Their problem is they can't meet the demand. They just don't have enough supply. So you know the party is going to end. Absolutely. But I don't think it's this year. So I think Micron continues to work. Robin has come down a lot recently, so I think there's a re entry opportunity for people that don't own it. You look at the year over year chart, you're like holy cow. But this is a maturation of a company that started out as like something we'd have in our phones to buy a little crypto or trade a meme stock and the company is not like that anymore. Also what I think is really interesting and compelling is the prediction market that they're getting into. This is a company that's getting into wealth management. They haven't control the eyeballs. So I look at this as an investment, not a trade. And I'm excited for both to continue to have momentum into 2026.
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B
And then your top pick is not one of those two names, but still in the mega cap tech area.
- [15:11]
C
Yeah. Well, Jenny started off the show saying we can't just keep picking Amazon, but I will say Amazon, you disagree? You know she, she did that to poke me But Amazon said a pretty lousy lackluster 2025. I mean, maybe it's up 4 or 5% on the year, but I think about that as like a reset, a stall. And if you're thinking about Moving forward where 2026, you've got to pick one stock and it's really hard to do. But I just think that the trajectory for, for Amazon is playing catch up. Nws, what they're doing with operational efficiency, logistics, advertising, Amazon prime, the video service, they've got a lot of levers to pull. And I think at some point here in the very near future, we're going to see the share price catch up to the fundamentals.
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B
Malcolm, you're in Amazon still. It gained about 5% in 2025. Do you think you should stick with it or are you going with Jenny and saying I think maybe it's time to cut and run?
- [16:05]
D
No, this was actually going to be one of my big picture ideas or big picks for 2026. And maybe to Jenny's point, I thought it was a little too obvious and a little like, like I've been championing this one for a while. But I agree with, with Kevin when he said logistics and operations, I think maybe he's talking specifically about robotics. And I think a lot of the investments that Amazon has made into robotics have actually sort of hurt their short term prospects, but actually will impact their longer term prospects going forward 2026 and beyond, because something like 600,000 warehouse jobs, they're expecting to be replaced by robots in the next couple of years. And they're also expecting. Morgan Stanley's estimate was something like up to $4 billion of savings is what Amazon should see this year going forward from installing those robots and investing in robotics as heavily as they have. And so all of that should fall to the bottom line for Amazon, a company that's so tight with its pennies. And so I imagine that to be the catalyst that really helps to get those numbers moving this year.
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B
Jenny, you know, we can't all be winners. I surf. Real, real bummer for you. It was down 67%. What do you do with that one?
- [17:16]
E
Well, we've actually talked about this a lot, so, so first of all, if you have a loss in it, use the tax loss harvest. But you really need to, you really need to always remember that your starting point is today. And Steph Link posted this great thing. I screenshot it. I wish I could remember exactly how it was phrased, but it basically says like, happy New Year, you know, the right way to live life is like stop trying to change the past. But you're starting to. Starting point is today, today you look forward and when you stop and look forward on fiserv, what you see is a company that's trading at a super, super low valuation that has incredible built in technology at all the major banks. Like yes, they had this major stumble and it had to do with, it had to do with sales in Argentina and what was pulled forward and expectations. But it's still a great company and they have, they have things like Zelle and Clover and all, all these like big bank backbone software and, and by the way, they mint cash flow. So you look at it and you say, hey, if they get back to high single digit, low teens earnings growth at the valuation that is at now, you hold on to it and play it for the future. By the way, it's a new management team, the new CEO and the new management that he's brought in is excellent. And so I think, you know, who was I on with Joe the other day and he was picking on me. He's like, well it's three, you know, three quarters of decreasing earnings growth. I'm like, that's because the new CEO came in, got realistic, kitchen sinked, it said, hey, we have these problems from Argentina, let's be very realistic now. But he's a very talented person and you need to give him, I think you need to give him the benefit of the doubt that he says, I've got a great business here with great natural, natural resources within the business in terms of what the business already is and we can make this work going forward. So I think you look at it from a new year, a new day, look at it going forward, don't look too much at that past.
- [18:59]
B
So speaking of a new year, give me your 2026 pick.
- [19:02]
E
Okay, mine's different. And guys, by the way, sorry about picking on Amazon. I should have said Apple. That would have been a better thing to pick on.
- [19:08]
B
We can go there next to people but give us.
- [19:10]
E
I love picking on Apple. So anytime. All right, my best pick for the year is offbeat. It's Sabra Health Care. And here's what you need to know about it. What you need to know is it trades at 12 times FFO, so about half the market multiple as a 6 and a half percent dividend yield. They are in the retirement and skilled nursing space. So and behavioral health. So 50% of their business is in skilled nursing, 34% is in senior housing. The rest is in behavioral health. You can see how the demographic wins are just at their back. By the way, they, they are expected to grow their earnings five and a half percent this year. So you've got decent earnings growth on that. It's an excellent management team and it's one of the rare companies in my portfolio where you can say the fundamentals alone are very encouraging. But it was up 17% if you include the dividend last year. The momentum's at its back. Also I don't often get to marry momentum and fundamentals so I thought this would be a good one going into the new year.
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B
It is very interesting. The demographic piece of it just blows my mind. I mean it feels like it has to be a winner to some degree.
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E
I think so. And you know what else Courtney? This is a company that doesn't have a threat, doesn't have a negative threat from AI. If anything I think that the, that the retirement homes, that the nursing homes at this area of health care, if anything I should stand to be like a wild benefit to them. The doctors, the nurses, the over, you know, the technology that they can put in patients rooms to help that should just be the wind at their back in terms of making staff better, making patients excited, experience is better. So it's kind of cool to find something where it's not a threat.
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B
I'm so hoping that helps health care in so many ways for all of us. I just think that could be such a powerful tool if we can figure that out. Malcolm, I want to move to you for your top pick. This is a new one or at least a new buy for your top pick for 2026.
- [20:55]
D
Yeah. So I think 2026 should be a great year for fintech broadly. I think with the declining rate environment that we're going through, the increased deregulation in the financials sector and the banks themselves sort of trying to figure out ways that they're going to implement AI but not really being able to make it happen. I think a lot of the other fintechs will be able to get there faster and so Visa is the pick for me. It's one that I've been watching for a very long time. I've been wanting to own it for a very long time and just could not pull the trigger on it because it always felt like the price was going to come back in some and because we're giving Warren Buffett his flowers all day. I'll say that I learned from there recent decision to pull the trigger and buy Google that maybe I can just admit that it's not going to come to me, I have to come to it. And so this seemed like a good time to be buying Visa because the announcement a couple of weeks ago that they were going to be introducing stablecoin via a partnership with Circle to be able to offer global remittances, essentially, that's a huge market to disrupt. To me, there's up to 6% is the chart, the fee for settlements, moving dollars from place to place. If I'm sending money back home to Mexico, back home to Israel or back home to Nigeria, wherever, there's a 6% charge to the people doing that from the United States into those countries, which is an awesome place for a company with a large install base, if you will, like Visa, to be able to come in and disrupt that. And that margin is their opportunity. And so the market didn't really seem to react too much to that announcement, which told me that the story isn't really baked into the price yet. And so it's one that I intend to continue buying as that share price does start to come down. But I decided I didn't want to wait anymore because that, that gave me an indication that Visa is going in a direction that I think the rest of the fintechs also are.
- [22:41]
B
And Visa was just added to the new money list at Compass point with a 390 target. We're sitting about 348 right now. Kevin, I want to give you a comment on that one because I know you also own Visa.
- [22:52]
C
Yeah, we've owned this forever. Courtney and I agree with Malcolm's comment about the Circle transaction or however you're thinking about bringing in this, this technology, its offense and defense. There was a point in time when they were thinking that the, that the circles of the world would be taking business from Visa. And when you think about the idea that this is something that they can do together uniquely with incredibly high margins, it's an exciting opportunity that I agree is not baked into the stock in any way, shape or form.
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B
Weiss, I'd love to give you sort of a final comment here on financials. Goldman Sachs, I believe you're in this one, up 53% or so since about a year ago. What do you make of the financials from here?
- [23:37]
F
You know, I think they're, they're in excellent condition. The, the Medline IPO came out and believe it's still trading about 55% above where, where it was priced. Phenomenal company. The equity firm Forms is one of the largest private exit ever at a 34 billion valuation, benefiting principally poor people and that continued to do well and the growth there is fantastic. There are other companies like this may not, may not be ones like the Medline. They're, they're a unique company, 110 year old company, extremely well run. But the point of it is, is that you've seen so many continuation vehicles over the last six years and those are generally done because there's no exit now as you lower rates and as the markets open to these deals I think you see tremendous activity, tremendous activity from the big banks with that Goldman which typically leads Morgan, JP Morgan of course Citi doing better in that area. I like banks pretty much. And then it's not just that as we see rates move around in the treasury markets and rates come down and you could have long term funding for, for pristine balance sheets at basically nothing. Maybe get down again to 25 bips on a long term loan as we've seen with Apple over a number of years and others. So the banks look very, very good. It's an accommodative regulatory backdrop as well. They seem to have no problem. The CEOs making their sojourn to their pilgrimage to the White House and being blessed. So, so I like them. I keep looking at Citi, I keep looking at Morgan, see if I should buy into it. Right now I just own Goldman and it's been one of my largest positions and you know, I'm not going to question that. Also be there now if the banks do well, you'll see the other companies do well because that means the money raising companies are bringing in capital to help them grow. So overall it's a good, it's, it's on the pulse of what's going on in, in corporate America. So, so I like them.
- [25:47]
B
Yeah. And the KB Bank ETF has posted its third straight positive year which is the longest streak since 2017. Citi is also bullish on regional banks. So we'll see what goes forward here in 2026. But I understand what you're saying about the regulatory environment also setting up nicely for them. Well coming up next we've got more committee moves. Kevin Simpson is ready with the trade update plus a brand new buy. Halftime. We'll be back in two minutes. Stick with us.
- [26:12]
A
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I have no fear of failure.
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Life is short and you just got to think big to accomplish big things.
- [27:03]
A
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players New episodes every Tuesday. Wherever you get your podcasts.
- [27:13]
B
We're back on Halftime with some big moves from the investment committee. Kevin, you just bought intel and added to Boeing. So I guess let's start with Boeing first.
- [27:22]
C
This is the second time in three weeks, Courtney, where we've added to Boeing. I don't look at this anymore as a turnaround story. If you think of a company that could do just about everything wrong year after year. And maybe that's also indicative of intel, which we'll get to next. But here's a situation where it's not a turnaround story, a recovery story. It's a real investment. The Stock was up 22 and a half percent last year. People are getting it right. They're looking at quality over just volume. They're making sure that the efficiency is there, the 737 Max, the 787. The orders are there, the backlog is there. It's just about getting it right moving forward. You also have defense and aerospace. So I like the stock for 26 as well and that's why we added.
- [28:03]
B
To it starting out on a, on a good note for you today, up more than 3%. That's quite a move on a day when the market is relatively flat. Weiss, you own FTA Aviation here, so not, not Boeing. But just to sort of dig deeper into this aerospace play, yeah, it's been.
- [28:18]
F
It'S been a phenomenal stock for me. They, they signed a deal I mentioned on the air Wednesday. They came about two and a half billion dollars in balance sheet which allows them for their lending book and for their, their maintenance book. But with lending book, when you have capital, obviously you can leverage off it and that's what they've been doing. So as aerospace, that's one of the reasons I bought it. And I also still believe in the aerospace industry despite Boeing's troubles when I, when I bought it. So I think continues to move. And now we're turning some of their engines and latest move into gas turbines that's going to take a whole nother level of performance for them. And this is really an under the radar stock. You can mention it to people, mention 10 people and they'll have no idea what you're talking about. So. So it's got a lot of potential buying power.
- [29:12]
B
Another decent mover today. Look at that. Up 5% that in Boeing. Who would have thought, huh?
- [29:17]
E
And takes rotating. It's a wild day. Like I started off.
- [29:20]
F
Well, it's not that it was news that came on. If you take a look at what it did on. If you take a look at what it did on Friday, if you have the chart there, it also had a pretty significant move Friday. So it's over the last few weeks come up from about 160. So it's, it's just a good story. Again, it's got, you know, it's unique in the story. You don't see a lot of these plays and so I think it'll continue to work. Management's pretty good. Know what they're doing.
- [29:51]
B
I want to move on. So we don't run out of time for Kevin to talk about intel up 84% last year, but you're buying it now. So you think there's more room to run here.
- [30:00]
C
Yeah, I wouldn't go following the end of this water blindly. This is a small position that we're taking. Stock was up 84% last year. We really left it for dead for many, many years. We haven't owned this stock in a long, long time. But if you think about it from a recovery and a potential second leg from here, you've got some pretty good investors. You know, you've got the US government, you've got Nvidia putting $5 billion into it, tremendous management compared to what they're, what they were previously dealing with and multiple opportunities for income and revenue growth. So we're going to keep a short leash on it. But if it does work, if they are successful, then this stock has plenty of upside potential. But again, there's a lot of question marks there to see if it really comes to fruition.
- [30:44]
B
You got some company here to look at that. Intel up almost 7% on the day. We're going to get some. Some other. Go ahead.
- [30:51]
F
Yeah. Kevin, just a question with. You know, Nvidia is giving out $50 million. Like you're tipping well, you're really cheap. But like maybe Malcolm's tipping in a parking lot. Just so many, so much money being put out. Does it really mean anything for these or is it just Purely an option where they're not getting into the weeds and helping the companies manage and grow.
- [31:14]
C
Can I just talk about your outfit and forget about the tipping because come on, $5 billion is not a drop in the bucket for any company. But I think what I like more about that, for real, Steve, is the fact that Nvidia is putting money in Intel. I mean, the dollar amounts less important than the conviction. So we're putting a small amount there as well. Just again, putting the toe in the water. But I think if it does work, if Nvidia is right, if the government's right, and if intel can, can turn this thing around, the stock could be much, much higher over the next few years. So we're thinking it more of an investment than a trade.
- [31:52]
B
All right, we've got to wrap it up. One final very quick, very quick.
- [31:57]
F
This is very quick. I swear. As the fashion reporter, who would you pick on?
- [32:03]
E
Okay, I pick on you.
- [32:04]
F
The fashion face.
- [32:06]
E
Can I ask?
- [32:07]
B
Go ahead.
- [32:07]
E
Yeah. Pick on in like a negative way. I'd pick on you today. Kevin is always dapper. His pocket square tie. I'm filling in. I'm filling in. I really wanted to take that one. All right, Courtney, I love shows up on set.
- [32:22]
B
I let her take that. You get to do it. Thank you all. We are going to move on and get the other headlines of the day with Sima Modi.
- [32:28]
G
We can ask he wise if he wants to be using news updates, but here are the stories at this hour. Courtney. The FBI says it thwarted an alleged plot to attack a North Carolina grocery store on New Year's Eve in support of ISIS. 18 year old Christian Sturtevant of Milne Hill planned to assault people with knives and hammers. The FBI says Sturtevant searched through ISIS content and corresponded online with two undercover agents disguised as ISIS members in New York. He is charged with attempting to supply material support to a foreign terrorist organization and faces up to 20 years in prison if convicted. White House officials telling Ms. Now that President Trump would meet with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro saying Trump wouldn't meet with any world leader. This after Maduro proposed holding talks with Washington to combat drug trafficking. In an interview on state TV today, a class action suit has been filed against rapper Drake related to promoting an illegal online casino while using the profits to artificially inflate streams of his music. He is charged alongside streamers Adin Ross and George Nguyen. The suit is being filed under the RICO statute against the men and the website says stake us. The suit says the website presents itself as a sweepstakes but it actually functions as an online casino. Courtney, back to you.
- [33:39]
B
Zima. Thank you very much. Well, coming up, the stellar year for precious metals Committee member Bill Baruch has been all over this winning trade. So he's going to join us next with his playbook for 2026 in the space. Halftime. Back after this.
- [33:52]
A
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- [34:21]
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A
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- [34:53]
B
Welcome back. Metals wrapped up 2025 with a real bang. Silver, platinum and gold just posted their best year since the 1970s. Can that momentum carry into 2026? Let's ask Bill Baruch. He joins us now on the phone. Bill, what do you make of the setup for 2026? Can we continue this move higher?
- [35:11]
C
Yeah, I do think early on, I think the first quarter, I think we're going to see a broad risk off move. That means metals as well in the equity space. But I think gold and silver, what they've accomplished in this in the final days, the final weeks of 2,025, you know, there may be a little bit.
- [35:28]
F
Of frost kind of the market has.
- [35:29]
C
To work through and there's some technical stuff that the CME that for gold.
- [35:35]
F
Silver futures, you're seeing the world.
- [35:44]
B
You know what, Bill, I'm going to have to pull it back from here just for a second. I'm sorry we're having a hard time with your connection and missing a lot of your points. I do want to turn to Jenny though very quickly. Just generally sort of on this space, obviously silver has had quite a run. I know there was a note out that suggested the B word, a potential bubble. What do you make of the space either from the commodity standpoint or sort of where you own things more in mining?
- [36:07]
E
Well, it's so hard because there's like the commodity side where Bill participates, and that's really speculative and, and really a commodity play. And then there's the investment fundamental side where I play. So we own Anglo Rio and Freeport, and we're really in more the iron ore and the copper play. I would love to invest in gold or silver in our portfolios, but there aren't great investments in those. If you are just a stock picker, you know, managing a fundamental portfolio where you have really high free cash flow yields that you need going into it. I'll tell you one thing. One of my clients who ran big hedge funds for his whole career is more of a technician and has excellent, excellent instincts. You know, we're not doing tomorrow, we're peeling silver out of his personal portfolio. There's a position. It's a long story, whatever. So the bottom line is, he says to me, from a technical perspective, this is way, way, way overextended. It's time to take silver out. And so from the commodity where Bill comes in, that's kind of the majority of my knowledge, is that the smart people I know are taking some off the table.
- [37:06]
B
That's interesting. Kevin, how about you? What's your play here? I know you're obviously in more of an equity stake and not the pure commodity.
- [37:15]
F
Yeah.
- [37:15]
C
Courtney, we own Agnico Eagle, and we've been lucky to have this in the portfolio for the past several years. But I think it was up like 130% in 2025. So really, really strong performance. And what I like about the stock versus the commodity is a pure play is here you get both. You get the efficiency, the operational margins. When oil's cheap, if labor is not too expensive, they can improve their margins. Their free cash flow is at all time highs. They pay a modest dividend, a little over 1%, but they've been increasing that dividend at like 25% a year for the past three years. With the free cash flow they have on the books, I'm expecting that to be the case for 2026. So a dividend bump, an efficient operator, and I don't think the gold plays over. So I think however you're playing it, whether it's in Bill's portfolio, to Jenny's point, or here with Agnico Eagle, it's not a silver play per se, it's a gold miner. And I've got a lot of confidence in it.
- [38:09]
B
But look at that performance. Up 103% in 2025 for Agnico. But you know, Anglo American up 43%. Jenny, not bad. And Rio Tinto, Freeport, McMurray up 36 and 33% respectively. Well, coming up next, Mike Santoli joins us for his MIDDAY word, the first one of 2026. We're back right after this. We are back on halftime. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joins us with his midday word, the first of 2026. But does it feel different or does it just feel like December 33rd?
- [38:52]
H
It kind of feels similar, although at the open or pre open it felt like people were going to say, okay, we buy everything now because we were down four days in a row and it seemed like we were going to get this pretty aggressive upside move in the indexes. Not really. It's actually decided to rotate around the Magic 7 as a group. Got a little bit of a smackdown. What you are seeing thematically, though, is last year's big winner in terms of the fundamental theme, which is a hardware infrastructure, semis, all that stuff is where the conviction lies. And so they are leading to the upside. Obviously, they took a little bit of a break. The earnings estimates have held up. But you look at things like software, software, Microsoft, Microsoft looks pretty wounded here as a chart. You know, it's actually just keeps giving way. So I don't know if I want to assign a ton of meaning as in like now we have flipped the page and this is going to be the story of the beginning of 2026 because it does sort of feel still kind of lightly traded and everyone's, you know, is in wait and see mode. Big picture. Like you start the year, the bulls have a 70% chance. The calendar year is going to be open. That's what history says is going to be up rather, that's what history says. So it's not a lot of margin in saying we're going down hard if we don't have a recession ahead of us and the Fed's not tightening. But I am alert to some maybe surprises that come and hit this market because the bullish consensus is pretty pronounced. Strategists are pretty aggressive with their upside. Jenny was saying, yeah, you want to just be aware that even if you think good things are coming, you might have paid for it upfront in terms of these stock prices.
- [40:19]
B
Fair enough. Good way to set us up. Mike. Thank you so much. Up next, our top calls of the day. Stick with us. We're back on the halftime report. Let's get to our calls of the day. BTIG is out with their top picks for the first half of 2026 including Zscaler and Netscope. Malcolm, you own both of those. Take us where you want to in discussion of those names.
- [40:43]
D
Sure. Well, Jenny kicked off the show talking about the consumer possibly being stretched and maybe we're seeing a downturn there with the labor market. But you know, who doesn't care about the US consumer being stretched? Cybercriminals. And so I think that that is a good place to be searching for opportunities companies growing their annually recurring revenues especially within the enterprise space. And so it's a way to de risk portfolios against the potential of whatever storm might be brewing out there in the markets. The same thing for netscope. But the difference here I think is really that it's a brand new company. It just ipoed in September and you're starting to finally see coverage among analysts up and down Wall Street. So as soon as we start to see increased coverage, that means also those price targets are going to go up, which means there's probably going to be buying pressure coming into that name.
- [41:29]
B
Okay, Jenny Marriott just got a price target hike hike at Argus. You own it.
- [41:34]
E
Right. So this is where I talk out of both sides of my mouth. So while I really do worry about the consumer and I think that's a problem, we also all know that there's this K shaped economy out there where the higher end consumers still hanging in. I think this goes back to our conversation about AI and it benefiting some areas. I think I will continue to benefit high end, higher end employees and laborers and they'll be able to continue to spend. So Marriott's an interesting business. It's asset light as my friend Steve Weiss always says. It is a permanent compounder. It's the kind of company that want to stay and we've owned it for over 10 years and it's just kind of a permanent long term compounder in our discipline growth strategy. But it's tough, right, because you're trying to figure out will it be able to survive some huge part of the labor force maybe getting it on the chin.
- [42:20]
B
Got it. I see it. Ok. Caterpillar getting a target hike today at Wolf Research. Weiss quickly on this one.
- [42:27]
F
Look, it's going to keep going. Momentum's been very strong. They're their continued move into more AI and data centers that is is isn't stopping anytime soon. So I continue to like it. They finally have the fundamentals, fundamentals away from their core business of construction to help drive the business. Those have been, you know, peaks and valleys with tide cyclicality. But I think they're over that hump so it makes a much more attractive stock. So quite. Well, I'm staying with it.
- [42:57]
B
Okay, sounds good. Well, coming up next, we will take you to trade school with the committee's investing resolutions for the year ahead. Halftime.
- [43:03]
E
We'll be right back.
- [43:09]
B
As we begin a new year in the markets, let's turn to our committee for their investment resolutions for 2026. Kevin, we're going to start with you.
- [43:16]
C
My resolution is to own fewer, higher quality stocks. Owning more positions doesn't necessarily mean you're more diversified. And I think if you can get rid of some of the clutter, focus on your good companies that have amazing free cash flow. For us, we look for dividends, pricing, power, long term tailwind demands. Having a smaller, more concentrated portfolio, I think, I think makes a lot of sense for next year. Otherwise, you're just going to look like a closet index. So trim your portfolio and make it. Make it count.
- [43:46]
B
I like that, Jenny.
- [43:48]
E
Okay, so mine is to let my winners run longer. And this is one of the biggest challenges of the strategy that I manage is there's this really strict discipline over valuation. So last year I sold Iron Mountain. This year I sold IBM. Not this year, in 2025. I sold IBM in the beginning of the year because they, they were fully valued. But I should have let them run longer, and I would have made a lot of money off of it. But I'm really strict with that, and I don't need to be quite as strict as I am. I can let them go a little. I like that.
- [44:13]
B
Malcolm, how about you?
- [44:15]
D
Yeah. So mine is, I guess, another hat tip to Mr. Buffett. When it rains gold, get out the bucket, not the thimble. I think that we're all forming a consensus that 2026 is probably going to be a more volatile year than the last three have been. And so investors should be getting their shopping list together and planning for what they're going to buy. Once that choppiness comes and get to buying, don't hesitate.
- [44:37]
B
I like it. And Weiss, what's your resolution for 2026?
- [44:40]
F
Yeah, my resolution is not to have a resolution. There's so much going through my mind. The last thing I need, I have a something else to remember. So I'm going to keep doing what I've been doing, which serves me well. And if somebody smart suggests something, I'll listen, probably ignore it, keep doing what I'm doing.
- [44:55]
B
All right, fair enough. Final trades are coming up on halftime. We are back with final trades, the first of 2026. Weiss, you get to go first.
- [45:09]
F
Taiwan semi was my trade for 26 on Friday and my first final trade. Look, this is the one to own. It is a tool belt. If you don't want to pick who is the best, most expensive AI chip pick at Taiwan Semi because they make them all. So this will continue to be a permanent compounder.
- [45:28]
C
Kevin There's a lot to like about Amazon US advertising and logistical efficiency.
- [45:36]
B
Oh yeah, they got a retail operation too.
- [45:38]
D
Malcolm I'm going Morgan Stanley. Just about every big M and a transaction in 2025 is included. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs for JPM on it and I think it'll continue this year.
- [45:49]
B
And Jenny get to take us home.
- [45:50]
E
Okay, ConAgra, the consumer staples have been huge underperformers this year and I've seen the drumbeat starting to change. There have been a lot of articles saying there's opportunity here. It has an 8.1% dividend yield.
- [46:01]
B
Very interesting. Thank you for joining us on the very first trading day of 2026. Markets sort of trading around the flat line, but there are some big winners within. Hopefully we help find some of those. That does it for halftime. The exchange starts right now.
- [46:15]
C
You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [46:27]
A
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.comhalftimereportdisclaimer. mazda Once you discover the Mazda CX5 Mazda, it doesn't take long to get it. With standard all wheel drive, a premium interior and advanced safety features, it's an SUV that gives you more at every turn. It will have you saying Mazda. The Mazda CX5, it's made to move you.
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