CNBC Halftime Report: "The Post-Fed Market" (12/11/2025) – Detailed Summary

Podcast: Halftime Report
Host: Scott Wapner (CNBC)
Panelists: Josh Brown, Jim Lebenthal, Malcolm Ethridge, Bill Baruch
Date: December 11, 2025

Overview

This episode of the Halftime Report dives into market action following the Federal Reserve's recent decision, with the Dow surging to a record high. The discussion centers on post-Fed market themes: rotation away from mega-cap tech, reactions to Oracle's earnings and its AI exposure, sectoral shifts, and tactical trade ideas. The panel debates whether investors should lean further into equal weight and small-cap stocks or stay tied to the once-unassailable "Mag 7" tech giants.

Key Discussion Points

1. Market Reactions Post-Fed: Broadening vs. Tech Reliance

• The Setup:
  • The Dow hits a new record (+1.15%) while S&P 500 and Nasdaq turn slightly red.
  • The Russell 2000 small-cap index and the equal-weight S&P 500 also break records.
  • The Fed's move is seen as "less of a hawkish cut than feared."
• Rotation Narrative:
  • Josh Brown (02:06): “If you don’t understand technicals, I’ll make it very simple: nobody is down in this trade right now [equal weight], and this trade represents the overall stock market. This is at a record high. That's indicative of broadening out.”
  • Malcolm Ethridge expresses skepticism that this is a durable broadening, noting most flows are leaving "anything OpenAI touches" and into other sectors or names (03:28).

2. Oracle Earnings: Proxy for AI Sentiment

• Malcolm Ethridge sold Oracle at the open, citing lack of clarity from management regarding AI partner (mainly OpenAI) spending and Oracle's capex plans (04:34).
  • (05:37): “I’m old enough to remember when proximity to Sam Altman was the best possible thing for your company and its share price. Now we’re seeing it go the other direction.”
• Panel Differences:
  • Jim Lebenthal is holding and even adding on weakness, seeing value at 27x earnings given long-term growth prospects (07:08).
  • Bill Baruch highlights the technically significant $180 support and the “execution phase” as crucial for Oracle going forward (08:55).

Notable Exchange:

Josh Brown (09:37): “What do you guys think stops this? … The stock is in a massive drawdown. What could put an end to the desire of people trading in the CDS market as though this is some sort of calamity?”

Malcolm Ethridge (10:23): “One of the cracks that started to form back in October was questions around whether or not [OpenAI] would go public… Investors were excited about a proxy investment into OpenAI… Now, with talks of ‘code red,’ that doesn't say to me we're good for our $1.4 trillion.”

AI, Chips, and Revenue Risk:

• Concerns over Oracle’s heavy dependency on Nvidia GPUs, while competitors signal willingness to use TPUs (Google custom chips), risking Oracle’s strategic edge (12:59-13:32).
• The panel discusses how the "proxy trade" spirit is waning for Oracle, as AI-centric bets face skepticism after a surge.

3. Broader Market Breadth & Portfolio Diversification

• Debate on whether “the 493” (S&P 500 ex-Mag 7) can lead the market higher as big tech slows.
• Jim Lebenthal (15:28): “This is why you diversify portfolios. 2023 and early 2024 was painful… Now you’re seeing why you have other things in your portfolio. … There are a lot more ways to make money.”
• Malcolm Ethridge cautions that for equal-weight indices to meaningfully outperform, something has to "go meaningfully wrong" for megacap tech (16:08).

4. Earnings Tests & Trade Setups

• Broadcom (AVGO): Bill Baruch is bullish ahead of earnings, calling it a "free cash flow juggernaut" with lower capex risks than others (17:47).
• Adobe:
  • Panelists praise a solid quarter; Jim Lebenthal calls it a "win" for holding strong despite AI headwinds (18:50-19:52).
  • Josh Brown trades on technicals, seeking a shorter-term play due to "ridiculously oversold" status.
• ExxonMobil:
  • Josh Brown has initiated a new trade, noting a technical breakout and value in “hedging” against potential commodity spikes (20:51-21:53, 25:09).
  • Bill Baruch highlights XOM’s diversified exposure and internal strength even as crude prices fluctuate.

Commodities View (with Jeffrey Gundlach Quote)

• Gundlach (24:03) signals a newly positive stance on broad commodities.
• Panel agrees that commodity stocks, especially diversified ones like Exxon, act as vital hedges in portfolios.

5. Trade Alert: Uber – The Battleground Stock

• Stephanie Link sold Uber, expressing concerns about mounting competitive risks from autonomous vehicles (AVs) and likely increased spending (28:24).
• Josh Brown (30:03) strongly counters that Uber's network effect and profitability set it apart:

  “The people saying Uber has to catch up have it precisely backwards. Uber is the only majorly profitable version of ride hailing in the country…”

• Stephanie Link retorts Uber’s profit miss (last quarter's EBITDA) could continue to threaten stock performance (31:31–32:54).
• Bill Baruch remains a buyer, pointing to margin expansion and the brand’s entrenchment (33:46).

6. Other Key Stocks and Sectors

• Insurance Stocks:
  • Josh Brown highlights Markel Group ("baby Berkshire") as a long-term winner; praises the sector's technological improvements and stable breakouts (37:16–38:55).
  • Financials broadly look attractive heading into 2026, panelists say.
• Micron (MU):
  • Target raised to $295 at UBS; Bill Baruch argues the company merits a higher multiple amid AI chip cycle and lessened cyclicality (41:10).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Josh Brown (02:06):
  “If you don’t understand technicals, I’ll make it very simple: nobody is down in this trade right now. And this trade [equal weight ETF] represents the overall stock market.”
• Malcolm Ethridge (05:37):
  “I’m old enough to remember when proximity to Sam Altman was the best possible thing for your company and its share price. Now we’re seeing it go the other direction.”
• Jim Lebenthal (15:28):
  “This is why you diversify portfolios.… There are a lot more ways to make money and they're shining through right now.”
• Josh Brown (30:03):
  “Uber is the only majorly profitable version of ride hailing in the country… Autonomous vehicles will be a commodity. Instead, [Uber] will have the most profitable layer—software that connects riders to cars.”

Important Segments & Timestamps

| Segment / Topic | Timestamps | | --- | --- | | Market Post-Fed reaction, sector rotation | 01:16–03:13 | | Oracle earnings & AI exposure | 03:13–13:32 | | Portfolio diversification, Mag 7 vs. 493 | 14:53–16:44 | | Broadcom, Adobe, ExxonMobil trade ideas | 17:26–25:56 | | Commodity outlook (Gundlach quote) | 23:38–25:56 | | Uber battle: Link vs. Brown, debate on AV future | 27:59–34:05 | | Insurance sector/Markel Group ("baby Berkshire") | 37:16–38:55 | | Micron, healthtech, other stock upgrades/downgrades| 40:56–43:11 | | Mike Santoli's midday word/rotation | 43:15–44:34 | | Closing thoughts and final trades | 45:10–45:48 |

Tone and Style

The tone mirrors the fast-paced, debate-heavy style CNBC listeners expect, with a mix of technical discussions, investment convictions, and some good-natured sparring—particularly around contentious names like Oracle and Uber.

Conclusion / Takeaways

• The Fed’s less-hawkish stance has intensified a rotation toward equal-weight and small-cap stocks. Questions remain as to whether this is sustainable or a temporary repositioning away from mega-cap tech.
• Oracle’s miss catalyzed broader skepticism of AI-linked trades, with panelists split over whether its woes are overblown or a harbinger for Big Tech.
• Portfolio diversification is being rewarded, and “old economy” sectors like energy, financials, and insurance are stepping forward as tech performance cools.
• Uber stands as a live battleground between believers in its network effect and skeptics wary of profit sustainability as AV competition rises.
• Several panelists see opportunity in commodities and related equities, especially as hedges if inflation or input prices spike.
• Final Trade Highlights: bullish takes on Core Gold, Netscape, Delta, and Zoom, with the overall theme being to seek out winners beyond the Mag 7 and keep portfolios balanced for a market in flux.

For listeners looking for actionable insights and a window into current Wall Street thinking, this episode delivered direct debate and clear opinions on the shifting market landscape post-Fed.