Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: The Post-Fed Playbook 9/18/25
Date: September 18, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner (CNBC)
Guests: Josh Brown, Joe Terranova, Jenny Harrington, Malcolm Methridge
Location: One Market, San Francisco

Episode Overview

Following the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate cut, U.S. stock indexes hit record highs, prompting market participants to debate the next steps in a rapidly evolving environment. Scott Wapner and the investment committee analyze key opportunities in financials, small caps, housing, gold, and tech, employing the "post-Fed playbook" to strategize for coming months. Notable quotes, tactical positions, and actionable insights abound as industry veterans share their outlooks for the rest of 2025.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

"Don't Fight the Fed": What the Rate Cut Means for Markets

• David Tepper’s Principle: The legendary investor appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box, sticking with his well-known view:

  "I'm not ever fighting this Fed, especially when the market's telling me…before the end of the year… That’s a tough thing not to own." (02:00, paraphrased)

• Market Reaction:
  • Rate cut catalyzed record highs in the major indexes—Russell 2000 outperformed, boasting its first potential record since 2021 (02:32).
• Josh Brown:

  "Market participants have been sniffing this out for months. Small caps and financials…that trade is in fuego already." (02:32)

  • Highlights the extraordinary 967-day gap since the Russell 2000’s last record close.
  • Financial sector multiples have not expanded; "you're not paying up" (03:40–04:30).

The Financials Rally: Opportunities and Nuance

• Joe Terranova:
  • Emphasizes weightings: has 35% of his portfolio in financials (05:03).
  • Believes sector will benefit from investor re-engagement, M&A, regulatory relief.

  "You don't want to fight the Fed, you don't want to fight the calendar. You're going into a rate-cutting cycle." (05:03)

• Malcolm Methridge:
  • Cautions on traditional banks, prefers "Big Three" (JPM, GS, MS) due to shifts to private credit.
  • Owns fintechs like SoFi for less rate sensitivity:

    "Their ability to offer banking as a service technology…has much bigger upside potential." (08:45)

• Jenny Harrington:
  • Favors Columbia Banking for dividends, not large caps due to lack of necessary free cash flow yields (09:39–09:46).

Housing Sector: “Ice Age” Thawing?

• Scott Wapner: Reports on B of A’s price target lifts for homebuilders, questions if this is time to “lean in” (10:17).
• Josh Brown:

  "Even still, not having the ability to sell a house…because of the interest rate situation…it's literally economically crippling for millions." (10:58)

  • Bullish on Home Depot, Rocket; sees falling mortgage rates fueling broad economic activity.
• Malcolm Methridge: Sees Rocket’s acquisitions (Redfin, Mr. Cooper) positioning it for when rates fall further (13:17).
• Joe Terranova: Considers homebuilders’ rally "developing," sold out in Jan 2025 after multi-year profits; watching momentum for potential opportunity (14:26).

Gold & Commodities: Hedging and Speculation

• Gold’s performance: Up 39% YTD, Deutsche Bank sets $4,000 target (15:05).
• Jeffrey Gundlach (via Wapner): Advocates for a portfolio with up to 25% gold exposure (15:56).
• Jenny Harrington:

  "To me, 25% gold in a portfolio…I think it is a bit excessive." (15:56)

  • Prefers stocks and bonds for clients needing income; views gold as speculative.
• Joe Terranova:

  "The reasons not to own gold is because it's going up. That's not a reason to get out…has fundamental tailwinds." (17:53)

  • Believes in commodities, expects lower dollar to boost the group.

Small Caps: Rotational Play or False Dawn?

• Malcolm Methridge: Skeptical that rate cuts alone trigger enduring outperformance for small caps, expecting only a short rally (19:34).
• Josh Brown: Counters that small caps’ breakouts often arrive after long streaks; asset allocation requires patience and being "there in advance" (20:36).

Tech Talk: Meta, Nvidia, Oracle, and More

• Market Rotation: Tech discussion arrives 20+ minutes into the show, highlighting sector rotation (21:56).
• Meta’s New AI Hardware:
  • Julia Borstin demos Ray-Ban Meta glasses, $379–$799 price point (22:33).
  • Jenny Harrington skeptical of Reality Labs’ profitability:

    "Meta lost $18 billion last year [in Reality Labs]…scrap Reality Labs, that could actually boost net profit." (24:04)

• Semiconductors: Intel and Nvidia drive SMH (Semiconductor ETF) to multi-day gains (24:54).
• Malcolm Methridge: Bought Oracle ahead of earnings, contemplates taking profits after a sharp run (25:44).

Stock Picks & Tactical Moves

Josh Brown

• Electronic Arts (EA): Bullish ahead of major game launches, technicals strong, aggressive buyback in place (28:37).

  "The setup here makes it really clear to me. I don't think there are a lot of sellers. Once it goes, I think it could really go." (29:28)

• Expedia: Watching for a technical retracement—flagging entry opportunity before next earnings (31:06).

Final Trades (46:29–47:14)

• Malcolm Methridge: Reiterates SoFi on breakout momentum.
• Jenny Harrington: Clearway Energy for a 6.5% dividend and growth outlook.
• Joe Terranova: XBI (biotech ETF) piggybacking on small-cap healthcare momentum.
• Josh Brown: CrowdStrike, celebrating its $50 gain on the day.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "I'm not ever fighting this Fed, especially when the market's telling me…that's a tough thing not to own." – David Tepper via Scott Wapner (02:00)
• "You're not paying up for these stocks. The financial sector is selling at the same P/E multiple it was…in January." – Josh Brown (03:40)
• "You see that small caps are rallying, you see that financials are rallying. What do I want to do? …I basically just bought more Jyoti." – Joe Terranova (05:03)
• "The home is not in the investment bucket, it's in the consumption bucket…but…not having the ability to sell a house…is crippling for millions." – Josh Brown (10:58)
• "I personally prefer the fintech space…SoFi…their core competency…banking as a service technology." – Malcolm Methridge (08:45)
• "25% gold in a portfolio…is a bit excessive…for me, gold is a speculation, not really an investment." – Jenny Harrington (15:56, 16:00)
• "All the big themes are kind of known…do with that what we will." – Mike Santoli (36:51–38:05)
• "There are five and ten year periods…where small caps have outperformed…these types of regime changes do happen." – Josh Brown (20:36)
• "Meta lost $18 billion last year [in Reality Labs]." – Jenny Harrington (24:04)
• "The insurance names have lost their technical momentum…pricing power…seems to be receding." – Joe Terranova (42:14)
• "This is something that's really easy to score political points with. So I support Michael Rapinoe and Live Nation as a shareholder…think the stock will be okay." – Josh Brown (44:38)

Important Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|---------| | 02:00 | Tepper’s “Don’t fight the Fed” mantra/clip | | 02:32 | Josh Brown on Russell 2000 & small cap record high context | | 05:03 | Joe Terranova on financials sector overweight and rationale | | 07:06 | Malcolm Methridge: Safety in big banks, fintech thesis | | 09:39 | Jenny Harrington: Why only Columbia Banking? Dividends focus | | 10:17 | Housing: Homebuilder upgrades and sector setup | | 10:58 | Josh Brown: Impact of mortgage rates on homeownership and economy | | 13:17 | Malcolm: Rocket’s fintech approach in housing market | | 14:26 | Joe: Homebuilders, momentum, positions exited | | 15:05 | Gold's historic rally, Deutsche/Jeffrey Gundlach | | 15:56 | Jenny: Dissent on heavy portfolio gold weighting | | 17:53 | Joe: Gold and commodities as next diversifiers | | 19:34 | Malcolm: Caution on small caps’ sustainability | | 20:36 | Josh: Small caps may eventually rotate back | | 21:56 | Tech sector: Nvidia/Meta/New hardware | | 22:33 | Meta Ray-Ban hardware, first impressions | | 24:04 | Jenny on Reality Labs’ huge losses | | 25:44 | Malcolm: Oracle trade strategy | | 28:37 | Josh: Electronic Arts stock thesis | | 31:06 | Josh: Expedia technical setup for potential entry | | 36:51 | Mike Santoli: "Don’t fight the Fed/tape" commentary | | 44:38 | Josh on Live Nation’s legal overhang | | 46:29 | Final Trade roundtable |

Tone & Style

The episode is conversational, analytical, and fast-paced, with each participant offering direct viewpoints, specific stocks, and actionable strategies. Industry jargon is present but regularly explained, mirroring CNBC’s television tone: accessible for seasoned investors and retail traders alike.

Conclusion

"The Post-Fed Playbook" episode responded to the market’s historic highs following a pivotal Fed rate cut. Panelists largely agreed with the prevailing wisdom—don’t fight the Fed—but nuanced the standard playbook with specifics. The rotation into financials, homebuilders, and small caps, alongside a persistent focus on technology, created a dynamic session of actionable insight and tactical debate for listeners.