CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode Title: The Post-Powell Playbook
Date: August 22, 2025
Host: Frank Holland (in for Scott Wapner)
Panelists: Jim Lebenthal, Jason Snipe, Kevin Simpson, Steve Weiss
Special Guest: Steve Liesman (CNBC Senior Economics Reporter)

Episode Overview

In this episode, CNBC’s Halftime Report dives deep into the market and economic implications of Fed Chair Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. With the Dow and S&P at or near all-time highs, the panel debates the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, the evolving economic backdrop, and what investors should do next—particularly in the tech sector and key individual stocks. The conversation is charged with analysis, strategy, and live reactions as the market rallies sharply on dovish Fed signals.

Key Themes & Insights

1. Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech: Dovish or Dim Green Light?

• Steve Liesman live from Jackson Hole (02:21) declares Powell’s speech as “dovish, maybe a little bit more dovish than some had expected.”

  • Notable quote:

    "He did open the way up for a rate cut...The market reaction may be more dovish than some expected." (Steve Liesman, 02:21)

• Powell emphasized data dependency and allowed for a rate cut if risks shift.

• Critical line from Powell’s speech:

  "With policy in restrictive territory. The baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance."
  (Quoted by Kevin Simpson, 02:45)

• Market Reaction:

  • Odds of a September rate cut spike to 85%-89% across panelists.
  • Liesman notes the market might be “a little over its skis in terms of its exuberance.”

2. Labor Market, Immigration, and Inflation Risks

• Focus shifts from inflation as the overriding concern to growing worries around labor market weakness.
• Immigration Enforcement: Labor supply now seen as shrinking due to near-halted immigration and deportations.
  • Notable quote:

    "Labor demand has clearly softened, but...labor supply has also softened. That break even rate of unemployment—he’s not willing to say what it is.”
    (Jim Lebenthal, 07:37)

• All eyes on jobs data, payroll revisions, and upcoming CPI/PPI for September policy.

3. Immediate Market Implications & Positioning

• Tech Sector — Is it time to pile back into “Mag 7” names?
  • Jim Lebenthal: “From here to year end, yes, you can buy here...But September looms, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some volatility.” (14:29)
  • Kevin Simpson reiterates conviction in Meta, having added on weakness:

    “It’s always better to buy low and sell high...We still look at Meta—it was our number one pick going into the year.” (15:57)

• Froth in High Beta Stocks:
  • Jason Snipe notes renewed appetite for risk:

    “Looking at the Russell 2000, up almost 4% today. There’s been some digestion that yes, you would buy.” (17:06)

• Industrials & Data Center Trends:
  • Snipe adds Eaton to the portfolio, citing massive power needs from data centers as a secular tailwind.

    “This is a nice place...Workflows will drive 160% increase in power needs by 2030.” (18:31)

4. Options & Risk Management Strategies

• Oracle Trades:
  • Kevin Simpson describes rolling calls on Oracle to hedge risk while maintaining upside, reflecting a nimble approach in volatile times.

    "We wrote a covered call on Oracle...stock pulled down a little bit. This week, we replicated that trade again, wrote a second covered call, and then yesterday into weakness, we closed both of those out, rolled it out one more week." (19:06)

• Portfolio Trims and Reallocation:
  • Both Simpson and Lebenthal note trimming winners like Oracle and JP Morgan to rebalance and manage portfolio risk.

5. Autonomous Vehicles & Adjacent Plays

• Uber & Waymo:
  • Recent Waymo permit in NYC is discussed as both a challenge and a positive for Uber.
  • Simpson: “Uber could become a super app...sort of agnostic as to where the rides come from.” (21:38)
  • Weiss and Simpson both add to Uber positions, anticipating $100+ price targets.
• Alphabet/Waymo as Platform Play:
  • Jim Lebenthal likes Alphabet as a backdoor autonomous vehicle play, noting monetization is still ahead.

6. Calls of the Day & Earnings Plays

• Roblox Upgraded (Wolf):
  • Simpson writing covered calls amid negative news:

    “We love Roblox long term...We wrote another covered call this week expiring next Friday.” (27:43)

• Snowflake (Citi):
  • Snipe bullish on long-term data warehousing TAM:

    “Compounder over the next decade. TAM…moving from $150B to $350B. Like the story going forward.” (28:41)

• QXO Initiated 'Buy' (Benchmark):
  • Weiss: “This is a long term compounder...excited to be a shareholder.” (29:27)
• Altria (BofA):
  • Simpson: “A perpetual compounder, 6% dividend, 11-12 times forward earnings.” (31:30)

7. Retail Earnings & Tariff Effects

• Tariffs Causing Creative Adaptations:
  • Walmart and Target both shift sourcing and manage tariffs with mixed impacts; price increases noted, especially for lower-income customers.
  • Walmart’s global ads and alternative profit centers helping offset costs.
• Home Improvement (Home Depot, TJX):
  • Simpson: “Lower rates mean massive stimulus...remodeling as the next phase, both Lowe’s and Home Depot big beneficiaries.” (40:54)

8. Panelists’ Trades and Rotations

• Recent Moves:
  • Simpson sells some Helmet Aerospace and Jabil, takes profits, eyes re-entry on pullbacks.
  • Buys more DraftKings (football season catalyst); panel discusses land-based vs. online gaming.
  • Adds Eaton (industrial/data center play), Meta, Uber (AI/autonomous ride play).
  • Trims JP Morgan as risk control.

9. Market Sentiment & The Path Ahead

• Mike Santoli’s Midday Word: Relief (43:08)
  • The market is relieved Fed will cut, but wants a cut for the “right reasons” (moderation, not panic).
  • S&P holding at highs, but much good news priced in—volatile data could shake calm before next Fed meeting or Nvidia earnings.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Steve Liesman:

  "He didn't really talk the market down, but he did tell them, listen, the data coming in September could be consequential." (04:07)

• Jim Lebenthal:

  "Downside risks may increase quickly. And for me, that was a moment where...the markets accelerate to the upside...his verbiage...definitely gave indication that the Fed is aware of the potential for the labor market to soften." (07:37)

• Steve Weiss:

  "It'll be the first time that the Fed is going to cut with stagflation so prominent—without mentioning it." (11:54)

• Kevin Simpson:

  "The markets are so excited is that we're pivoting away from inflation...to the labor market.” (10:50)

• Mike Santoli:

  "It’s relief, but it’s relief of the exact sort the market was craving.” (43:08)

Important Timestamps

| Timestamp | Topic / Segment | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:21 | Steve Liesman’s overview of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech | | 04:07 | Key caveats in Powell’s message; why September’s data is pivotal | | 07:19 | Discussion of labor supply/demand and the shrinking workforce | | 10:50 | Kevin Simpson on market’s optimism and inflation/labor shift | | 14:29 | Is now the time to buy Mag 7 tech? Panel debate | | 18:19 | Jason Snipe on investing in Eaton, power infrastructure, and data centers | | 19:06 | Option strategies: Oracle covered call trade explained | | 21:38 | Impact of Waymo’s NYC move on Uber, strategic outlook | | 27:43 | Roblox option writing; dealing with negative news/lawsuits | | 40:54 | Retail roundup: Walmart, Home Depot, TJX and tariffs | | 43:08 | Mike Santoli’s “midday word” sets tone for the current rally | | 46:53 | Final trades: Vertiv, DraftKings, Palo Alto, Citigroup |

Panelist Activity Summaries

• Jim Lebenthal:
  • Positive on tech but cautious near-term.
  • Likes AstraZeneca, Delta, Oracle; trimming positions where overweight.
• Jason Snipe:
  • Bullish on AI/data center infrastructure (Eaton), likes Mag 7, keeps eye on froth.
  • Defensive yet opportunistic, favors thematic investing.
• Kevin Simpson:
  • Actively managing positions (rolls calls, trims big holdings, adds on pullbacks).
  • Emphasizes hedging and opportunistic entry—Meta, Uber, DraftKings, Home Depot, TJX.
• Steve Weiss:
  • Believes Fed will cut, but stagflation is underappreciated risk.
  • Likes Uber, QXO, Vertiv, and sees unique opportunity in FTAI Aviation.

Concluding Takeaways

• Consensus:
  • The Fed is signaling rate cuts, but not definitively—data dependence and volatility loom.
  • Tech and industrials have renewed momentum, but panelists remain vigilant for pullbacks and excess exuberance.
• Actionable Ideas:
  • Investors should be nimble, take profits where appropriate, and look for quality amid volatility.
  • Data centers, AI infrastructure, and “Mag 7” tech remain top themes, but value can be found in select industrials and defense stocks.
  • Retail holding up, but tariff impacts may hit margins—watch for new winners as global supply chains adapt.

Overall Tone:
Energetic, opportunistic, and cautiously optimistic—with frequent reminders that today's exuberance could shift pending upcoming economic data and earnings. The panel leverages real-time market action and deep experience to highlight both conviction and risk management in the post-Powell, pre-rate-cut landscape.