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Halftime Report
The Pullback Playbook 11/6/25
00:43:56
Frank Holland and the Investment Committee lay out their pullback playbook as stocks are under pressure again today. Plus, the desk debates Elon Musk's pay package as the results of that vote drops today. And later, we talk crypto after Ark's Cathie Wood said this morning she was trimming her Bitcoin bull case. Investment Committee Disclosures
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- [00:01]
Frank Holland
Introducing Fidelity Trader plus, the next generation.
- [00:04]
Joe Terranova
Of advanced trading from Fidelity.
- [00:06]
Frank Holland
Customize your tools and charts and access them seamlessly across desktop, web and mobile. For faster trades anywhere you go, try the all new Fidelity Trader Plus. Learn more about our most powerful trading platform yet@fidelity.com TraderPlus investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, llc Member nyse, SIPC Men need a store that has the.
- [00:32]
Joe Terranova
Right thing for their thing, like a Kenneth Cole suit made with Showflex fabric to keep them cool at their cousin in law's third wedding in the middle of July. Whatever the thing, Men's Wearhouse has the clothes for it.
- [00:43]
Frank Holland
Love the way you look.
- [00:44]
Joe Terranova
Men's Wearhouse.
- [00:46]
Scott Wapner
I'm Scott Wapner, and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day.
- [00:54]
Frank Holland
We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern.
- [00:57]
Scott Wapner
Listen in.
- [01:01]
Frank Holland
Thank you, Carl and Sarah. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I am Frank Holland in for the judge Scott Wapner, front and center at this hour, your pullback playbook. Should you now position your portfolio with or how should you position with stocks under pressure once again today? Joining me for the hour, great desk, Joe Terranova, Jenny Harrington, Jason Snipe and Britain talking to a quick check on stocks. You can see a lot of red on this board right now. The S and P pulling back more than 1%. The NASDAQ down almost 2% right now in the Dow pulling back more than 500 points, you'll see the Russell pulling back about 1 1/2 percent. And really, that's where we have to begin. Joe, what do you make of this pullback we're seeing in the markets? Also, if you look at some of the biggest drags on the S and P right now, it's some of the names that power the market higher. It's Nvidia, it's Microsoft. It's some of those names that are pulling back hard today.
- [01:45]
Joe Terranova
So I think the message for me very clearly is that the battleship of momentum is turning. And I use the word battleship because momentum tends to turn at a very slow pace, just as a battleship does. What's interesting is when momentum turns, it usually turns first in the macro assets. And if you look back over the last six weeks, what you will see, think about the macro stars of 2025. What were they? They were being long gold. They're being they were being long crypto and they were short the dollar. On September 17th, the dollar found its low. Since then, it's up 2 and a half percent on October 6th, crypto peaked. It has moved lower ever since then. On October 20, precious metals gold found its peak. It has reversed lower since then. So what is this battleship of momentum turning mean? It means it's turning towards quality. And as it turns, what it does in the last stages is it goes after individual equity names. And it started on Tuesday with Palantir. It continued yesterday. And now I'm speaking towards names that we own in the Momentum, Quality, Momentum etf. It was Palantir on Tuesday. It was Axon Enterprises yesterday. Look at the staggering returns in Exxon over the last year. Today its dash. And during this process, guess what? The turn of momentum is going back towards quality. Health care is the best performing sector in the quarter, even beating technology up four and a half percent.
- [03:27]
Frank Holland
Jenny, Joe kind of laid out his thesis, kind of a shift in momentum where he's put out some pretty big inflection points right there. We're talking about gold, bitcoin, the dollar. Bitcoin peaked on October the six. Kind of a symbol of riskier, a riskier asset that people have appetite for. Since then, it's down double digits. Just want to hit goal very quickly. Since October 20, down just about 5%. Do you agree with his thesis? Do you see a flight to quality? And what do you make of today's action?
- [03:52]
Jenny Harrington
Well, Frank, if you remember, when, when I was on with you about two weeks ago, you I said, here's what I'm suggesting to my clients. I'm suggesting that you don't need to be all bearish, you don't need to be all bullish, but you can start to be a little cautious. And if you're a little cautious, you should, you should recognize that we're at a peak. There might be more peaks in the future, but we were certainly at a peak, which I would argue we're still at a peak. Right now. We're a little off, right? We're not off dramatically from the market highs. And I'll get to crypto in a sec. And I think you should take a little bit off the table because what always drives me nuts is that we have the de Risking portfolio conversation.
- [04:25]
Frank Holland
I want to interrupt you very quickly. We're actually going to go to D.C. right now. The president speaking plan news conference to discuss prescription drug prices. We're going to toss to that right now.
- [04:38]
Donald Trump
Someday maybe it'll come out which will notify you immediately, but so far I haven't heard that. Including the drugs known as Zepbound and Wegovy, often called Ozempic, it's a triumph for American patients that will save lives and improve the health of millions and millions of Americans. Amazing thing. They are amazing. I want to thank Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks, a friend of mine. We've worked long and hard. He and I got this whole thing started, in a way. And Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Dustar for joining us today. Great, talented people. They make a lot of money. I looked at their money, but they're entitled to the money because the companies are doing very well. Along with Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Secretary Howard Lutnick. Do you take any of this stuff, Howard? Not yet. Okay, good. CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz. He doesn't take it. Food and Drug Administrator Commissioner Marty McCary and Director of Medicare Chris Plump. And we have Steve. Where's Steve? Steven, head of public relations for the White House. He's taking it. The United states is just 4% of the world's population and consumes only 13% of all prescription drugs. Yet pharmaceutical companies make 75% of their profits from the American customer. I would say that's not so good. Right? It's not exactly great. To address this chronic unfairness, I signed an executive order earlier this year instructing my administration to do everything in our power to implement most favored nation's drug pricing, something that has been helped greatly by tariffs. Because when nations refuse to do it, we should have put this in the case yesterday. I just say, well, if you're not going to do it, we're going to charge you a like amount of tariffs. And they immediately say we'll do it. Which means that Americans should pay no more than the lowest price offered anywhere in the world. So that you've heard for years the disparity where you'll pay $150 for a pill in New York and you'll pay $10 for a pill in London, now you're going to pay $20, both because the world is a little bit bigger than the US so it goes up that way. But you'll pay $20 and $20, a tremendous advantage to our country after years of being abused by the world system. Already, Pfizer, AstraZeneca and EMD Serrano have agreed to drastically lower their prices for American patients. And today Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are joining the phenomenal list of the most exciting announcements. I mean, nobody has ever had announcements like, and this has to do with other pharmaceutical products also. But we're covering this today because it's such a big seller. I guess it's the number one selling thing There is today. These are two companies that behind the groundbreaking weight loss drugs that have helped millions of Americans struggling with obesity live better, longer lives, everything else. These are the two companies that really broke ground. Until now, neither of these two popular drugs have been covered by Medicare for weight loss and they've only rarely been covered by Medicaid. They've often cost consumers more than $1,000 per month and some a lot more than that. Americans have been spending as much as 520% more for Zepbound and 1,400% more for WeGovy than patients in Europe. Think of that. 1,400% more than a patient year for the exact same. And that ends starting today. The other countries are not happy with us. I don't think they like me too much, Bobby, but that's okay. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are committing to offer Zepbound and Wegovy at most favored nations rates for American patients. This will slash the cost of WeGovy from $1,350 a month to ultimately $250 a month. $1,350 to $250. Did I do a good job? They don't write about it. You know, they like to not write these things and reduce. Do you think anybody, you think Biden could have done this? I don't think so. And reduce the monthly cost of Zepbound from $1,080 to $346. In addition, they're both committing that future GLP1 weight loss drugs taken orally, which are currently under development, will be sold at no more than $149 per month. It's a massive. Think of that. You go from $1,300 to $149 a month. We anticipate these new versions will be coming out in a very short period of time. All of these drugs will be available directly to the consumer@TrumpRx.gov Trump, why don't you use my name? Trump. It better be good. Trumprx.gov and I think it's turning out to be pretty amazing, right O Just as significantly, Medicare and Medicaid will finally cover the cost of these weight loss drugs for millions of patients suffering from obesity. CO pays for Medicare patients will be as low as $50. This is tremendous savings. I mean, now you're talking about from $1,350 to $50. This is tremendous news for the American seniors. And you all remember when I had 1/8 of 1% for the year, I cut it 1/8 and I was so thrilled. But now we're cutting at 1,000%, 1,200%. Nobody's ever seen anything like this. Nobody else could have done it. But I say that modestly. In addition, you think it was easy dealing with these people? It wasn't. You think it was easy saying you drugged Mr. Eli Lilly, that we're selling for 1,300 is going to be sold for 250. You know the amazing thing, the stocks all went up. I mean, these guys are. They're fantastic because it's going to equalize the world. The world is a bigger place, and it's going to equalize. I was a little surprised to see that, but I'm happy about it. In addition, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have agreed to provide all of their other medications to Medicaid at most favored nations prices. Most favored nations, meaning that you will pay the lowest price anywhere in the world. That's what you're going to pay. Whereas before they paid low prices and we paid, you know, thousands of percentile ahead more. And to sell these drugs to all consumers at deeply discounted prices. Via TrumpRx.com when is TrumpRx.com opening? The site is open.
- [12:01]
Joe Terranova
It will launch in terms of giving.
- [12:03]
Frank Holland
People prices before the end of the year.
- [12:04]
Joe Terranova
Okay.
- [12:05]
Donald Trump
Got to make sure it's successful. It's got my name on it. I don't want to be like so many others. I don't want to be like the train they're building in California. Okay, which has about 15,000% cost overrun. Or the Obama, the beautiful Obama building that he's building in Chicago for the museum, which is now shuttered up and dead. They got it up and they couldn't finish. It's about, would you say, five years behind schedule and about 2,000% over budget. Then he tells us how to run Medicaid. Many of the most widely used drugs will be available for 60% off or even more than that. In addition, all new medications introduced by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the American market will be sold at the heavily reduced most favored nation's price. Most favored nation's priced estimates invest because they have been thousands of percent lower than what we were selling in many cases. Furthermore, Eli Lilly is investing $27 billion. That's all. And Novo Nordisk will invest $10 billion. That's all. That's peanuts in the United States to reshore and do a big domestic manufacturing job in the facilities. They're going to spend. So Eli Lill has spent 27 billion. Novo is spending 10 billion in the United States. So they're building new plant and equipment that's part of what will be 20 or $21 trillion this year. There's never been anything like it. I know nobody talks about it, but there's never been anything like. I would say. You would say that. There's never been anything like this ever. Whether it's China or Europe or you could take all of Europe. There's never been anything like this. So we're already past $17 trillion. We're going to be, I think by the time the year closes out, we'll have investments of over $21 trillion based on the way we're going. And, and by the way, tariffs are very important. Without tariffs, perhaps it could be a little bit different. To put it wildly, tariffs are so important. The decision in the Supreme Court would be devastating to our country if we got a negative devastating if we got a negative decision. But this is a great day for American health and healthcare and for all of American patients. These are things that are miracles to have this happen. And they're, you know, we're bringing all our medicines again because of tariffs. We're bringing all our medicines. If you remember where the. During COVID we made almost no medicine here. We had to go to China, we had to go to Ireland, we had to go to other places, UK to get our. We didn't make it here. Now we're making it. We'll soon be making it all here again because of tariffs and my election, but because of tariffs, much more. For years, politicians have talked about making healthcare affordable, but my administration is actually doing it. Americans deserve the best health care in the world, and we're now getting the best healthcare at the lowest price. So I'd like to ask somebody who's doing a fantastic job, Secretary Kennedy to say a few words, followed by Dr. Oz, Dr. Klopp, and then Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks and Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Dustar. These are incredible.
- [15:41]
Frank Holland
All right. You were just hearing from President Trump right now discussing deals with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to provide most favored nation pricing for their very popular GLP1 drugs. The President says more deals like that are on the way for other prescription drugs. The president also doing a quick sidebar on the Supreme Court, considering whether or not the majority of his tariffs are legal or not legal. He said it would be devastating if the court found those tariffs to be illegal. I want to go back to our conversation here on the desk. Jenny coming over to you right now. Joe hit on something very important. Just a Short time ago, the health care rally that we've seen actually quarter to date. Joe, you were talking about it. Health care, best performing sector, doing better than tech. Best for the sector over the last three months as well. Speaking of some analysts, they actually do say that some of these deals we're seeing with the White House and, and kind of bringing manufacturing back to the US as part of that rally. But I just want to talk to you about what Joe was talking about. Actually momentum. We're seeing momentum in health care, we're seeing an unwind in momentum in other places. What's your take?
- [16:34]
Jenny Harrington
Okay, so we were talking about like, you know, I was saying de risking and then I was going to where do you go? So I'll say something. So I spent the first part of this week in Indiana meeting with clients and every client, you know, who will listen to me. I'm saying, look, de risk a little. Take money out of the areas that have been frothy, of the areas that have worked extremely well. And then the question becomes where do you go? You know, do you go into bonds? Do you go into cash and CDs? Do you go into areas of the market that haven't worked so well? Is that health care? But I think. I'm not sure which. It is loud back here, isn't it? I'm not sure what the right answer to that is. And that has to do with your whole portfolio. But I'll tell you this, I'm nervous. And the reason I'm nervous is because when you look at the market in aggregate, everything's great. Everything's still great. Even with this back off today, even with the rotation into health care and out of, out of the frothier areas. But you look at like GDP, okay, GDP grew what, 2%? You look at the market still up 17%. You look at labor still strong. All of these things are in aggregate. Once you start to disaggregate them, the picture gets pretty dicey. And we even saw. I know, I know, I'm going afield. I promise I'll try and bring it back. But like we even saw Scott Bessant say last week that there's sectors of the market out there that are in recession, right? Like he talked about housing might already be in recession. We're seeing in the market today stocks like Elf Duolingo doordash plunging. We saw McDonald's come out just today and say the lower income consumer, consumer at their stores is declining double digits while the higher income consumers find. We see American Express where the higher End consumers find Las Vegas Strip. MGM just reported 90% occupancy in the Las Vegas strip. But we're hearing brought more broadly that, that Las Vegas is declining. So you've got this really, really hard market to navigate because in aggregate things are fine. So it's disaggregated. Yeah, I think this is, I think.
- [18:25]
Frank Holland
This is more you saying the bifurcation that we always see is getting worse.
- [18:29]
Joe Terranova
The market is moving towards a goal.
- [18:30]
Jenny Harrington
Definitely worse. It's definitely worse.
- [18:32]
Frank Holland
So where the ramifications go to the market, if you continue to see a widening of that bifurcation, you know, the rich getting richer, the people in the middle and the lower feeling more pain from not only inflation.
- [18:42]
Jenny Harrington
I think when something, when something stinks, there's something, there's something wrong and I think when you disaggregate it and you see that there's so much trouble lurking beneath the surface where everything in aggregate looks good because of data center bill, because of AI centric boom, because of just that, the smoke small pocket of high end consumers who are brewing up the overall consumer. I think there is a problem.
- [19:01]
Joe Terranova
By the way, you left out the earnings attributable to AI.
- [19:04]
Jenny Harrington
Fine. It's one in the same. It's like I said, one of the same. Yeah, no, no, listen, if you look at, if you look at S and P earnings, they were going to pull it back.
- [19:12]
Frank Holland
I do think we got to pull it back. So if you don't mind, I'm going to go over to Jason, I'm going to pull on the thread that we were already on health care rallying.
- [19:19]
Jenny Harrington
So yeah, do you go to healthcare?
- [19:20]
Frank Holland
But is that a defensive trade? I know you have a lot of bouts in exposure. Just coincidentally the company going public right now, that noise, while Jenny was trying to get her point out, a biotech company going public just now, you have a lot of biotech exposure. Joe's talked a lot about biotech. Is that the place to go considering some of this turbulence we're seeing in the market?
- [19:36]
Jason Snipe
Well, it's been a great story obviously year to date, Frank. You know XPI is up I think 20%. The IBB which I have exposure to is up around 19. I think part of that has been a bit of the rate story. And yes, I mean I don't look at biotech tech as quality. Right. There's a lot of unprofitable companies in that space. But I think it's part of the interest rate story which we knew what was going to happen in October, the December Cut is, is a little bit more gloomy now. Potentially only 60% potential of a cut. But what we were starting to talk about is the earnings picture.
- [20:09]
Scott Wapner
Right.
- [20:10]
Jason Snipe
So it's an 83%, 83% beat rate.
- [20:13]
Frank Holland
17% higher.
- [20:15]
Jason Snipe
You got it. In aggregate, the earnings growth rate is now because we've heard from the tech guys and the tech companies, almost 11% growth rate came into the quarter at 8.8%. Atlanta Fed is at 4%. So there's a lot of good things in there. But one of the things I wanted to mention in terms of seasonality, I remember sitting on this desk in August and early September and we were talking about seasonals and what that was going to look like. September S and p was up three and a half percent. October, the S&P was up 2.3%. For me, it's a bit of digestion. I think this is also a valuation story, not just valuation compression, not capitulation. So that's really been my story kind of as I view and look at the frothy parts versus other parts of the market where there's some more quality.
- [21:01]
Jenny Harrington
Right.
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Frank Holland
Bryn, coming over to you. I mean we're talking about all these different issues. I do want to get back to earnings season. We just got the latest numbers from Elsa. Q3 earnings up second 17% year over year. Very strong earnings. A lot of people say earnings drive markets. So despite the last few days of some difficulty and some sell off in tech and unwanted momentum that Joe's been talking about, are we maybe making too much of all this?
- [21:22]
Bryn
So in regards to earnings driving returns, there's actually very little correlation in the short term that that earnings drive a particular stock or a market. It's really over long periods of time. And so the direction that earnings I want to see year over year will probably end the year with about a 7 to 8% growth rate in earnings. So that direction is positive for this high valuation that we have in the market cap, whether it's the NASDAQ or the S and P. I think though with some of these individual names, I think to Joe's original point about momentum, maybe it's like slowly than all at once. You definitely see that shifting. And I know we'll talk about maybe Robinhood later. You can have a company with great numbers, but if you're up 250% for the year, you cannot expect not to have drawdowns. And I do believe that I can speak for myself. I have like a big hangover from, from all of these. Jensen, Sam, Altman, announcements. It's just like enough already. Just like keep your head down, go back to work. But these announcements to me are the new meme stocks. And I think that, you know, Oracle I think is the poster child of this really crazy outlandish announcement that neither company has they've ability to pay for. And I do think it's like when the market does have these pullback, to me it's a little bit sign of the health, a healthy perspective because we can't just continue to have these mean moves in these partnerships that to me we'll see if they actually happen and what actually goes on. So I think earnings are intact. We're going to get rate cuts. We will be stimulative next year with the OBB going into effect. And so I think we're just having a correction. And I do think this government shutdown, the longer it lasts, the worse that's going to be for the market.
- [23:00]
Frank Holland
You know where you just mentioned Robinhood, I know you and Joe, you both own the company or Joe has in the Jyoti company beat on earnings, very strong earnings. Then it trades lower, it's moving lower today. Is that indicative of just a momentum unwind? Is that an indicative of investors feeling exhaustion somewhere? What do you think? I mean look at this stock. It's down 9% right now.
- [23:19]
Bryn
I think it's a little bit of both. Right. They do have a new cfo. This man Shiv has been there for seven years, is stepping in. I don't think that's why it's down 9%. The numbers were incredible. The prediction markets alone generated now $100 million. And so I think the stocks up what I mean, Joe can correct me, around 230% for the year. And so you have a great number, but then you go back to is it just priced in? Is it priced in? And so let the stock pull back, look at technicals and I feel confident and investors will see step back in once the company, that stock itself finds its footing.
- [23:55]
Joe Terranova
Technically it's up 246% on the year, consistent with Brin's remarks. Think about that. It's down 9.3% today and it's just breaking below the 50 day.
- [24:07]
Jenny Harrington
Okay.
- [24:07]
Joe Terranova
And that shows you earnings. So that shows you just how much the stock has actually levitated. And I think we're in the process throughout the entire momentum universe where we've seen the strength of so many winners, we're in the process whether you want to cite valuation, whether you want to cite sentiment or positioning, pick Your catalyst. But it's very clear the market right now wants to work off each of those extreme conditions, overvaluation, extreme bullishness.
- [24:39]
Frank Holland
So I know you own doordash long positioning. Same story there.
- [24:41]
Joe Terranova
Dash. Absolutely.
- [24:43]
Jenny Harrington
Look so consumers weak.
- [24:45]
Joe Terranova
So in the case of Dash, first of all, what's important about DASH is where exactly are you long. This is not about being right or being wrong. This is about managing the risk. So we added this trade into the ETF in April at 192. We still stand with a winning position. That doesn't mean, I would suggest, suggest to you that you buy it here today if you don't own it. I don't think that's exactly what you do when you look at the earnings. Food Delivery was strong. EPS up 44%, revenue up 27%. Total orders up 25%. What's the problem? They said they're going to spend several hundred million dollars more in 26 than 25. Okay. When you are quote unquote one of the Momentum VIPs for 2025, you can't say that set and not expect to get punished. So it's about how do you manage the risk in the position? For us, we have a winning position that potentially looks like it could turn into a losing position. We will manage that accordingly at the next rebalance. For those of you out there, it's not a matter of I was right, I was wrong and pointing fingers about it. It's about manage the risk. So anything that you have bought above today price, you have to deal with that. You have to accept that you were wrong and you have to manage the risk and you have to reduce your exposure there. Because this is a name that's not going to reverse and move higher very quickly. It's a name that over the course of the last six months I've talked about as it went up to 285. So obviously on the way up, I was wrong when I was saying at 230, I think the stock continues to work and moves higher. Okay, I'm wrong. Well, what do you do? You manage the risk. You have to take action when these stocks to begin to reverse. And the only thing that we can do is take action at the next quarterly rebalance and I can assure you that you will. But if you're sitting with the stock today and you don't own it, wouldn't touch it here. If you're sitting with the stock and you bought it higher, you have to take action, manage the reduce and reduce the exposure. If you're long the stock at a lower level like we are and you have the ability to do something, you want to manage the risk, risk, do that accordingly.
- [26:55]
Frank Holland
Is there a level that looks attractive right now? Obviously a 201 a share after a big pullback, 15%.
- [27:00]
Joe Terranova
No one knows that. You can't, I don't think when momentum reverses, look on the upside, how high is high and how low is low? When stocks are moving higher, right. When stocks are moving higher and continue to defy gravity and move higher, you can't say, oh, this is the point at which it's going to stop, stop. You could say to yourself from a valuation perspective, perspective, I'm not comfortable here. If I measure the risk versus reward, I think that's a great way to approach it. On the downside, again, it's the risk to the reward, which is important. And no one could say, okay, 180 is where it's going to bottom nose that.
- [27:34]
Frank Holland
Jenny, unfortunately, we got to stop the conversation here. Coming up next, the longest government shutdown in history is disrupting the way we travel as the FAA plans to cut flights at major airports. Our Phil LeBeau is standing by with the very latest. Plus, a high stakes Tesla shareholder meeting kicking off just a few hours from now. Elon Musk and that trillion dollar payday is on the table. We're going to talk about all that coming up in halftime two minutes.
- [28:03]
Brian Sullivan
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- [29:02]
Frank Holland
And we're back on halftime and following a developing story on how the shutdown is affecting air travel. Our Phil LeBeau joins us now with much more on this story. Phil?
- [29:11]
Scott Wapner
Frank, right now, today, throughout the day, the airlines are talking with the FAA and the dot IN terms of finalizing flight reductions. Where will the flight reductions take place? The 40 largest airports in this country. This is a map of what we believe based on talking with people will be the 40 airports that are impacted. Now, this is not going to be 40% of the people flying into these airports and it'll be 40% of the flight or 10%, excuse me, of the flights flying into these 40 airports. It's not 10% of the people. So where are you going to see the cuts? It's going to be reduced frequency, largely from smaller airports, routes, let's say a Greensboro, a Mobile, Alabama, Wichita, Kansas, those kind of where they used to have three flights a day into a larger city, they may now only have two or one. Regional jets primarily will be impacted. Nonetheless, as you take a look at the airline stocks, they're under a little bit of pressure today because the question is how long does this drag on? Is this going to continue as we get closer to Thanksgiving? If that's the case, then you see a bigger impact in terms of the bottom line for the airlines. They are working with the federal government in order to make sure this happens as smoothly as possible with the fewest flight disruptions as possible. But Frank, when you cut 10% of the flights, you will see a number of passengers, travelers who are not happy about it. I mean that's just the way it goes, especially over this starting weekend because there are some flights that were booked where people are going to be rebooked on a different flight and they're not going to be crazy about that. But that's, I mean, that's what the airlines have to do.
- [30:48]
Frank Holland
Yeah, Philip, I can imagine there's going to be a lot of upset travelers out there. A lot of people trying to find alternative plans are Filibo with the very latest on the flight reductions. A lot of major airports around the country. Jenny, I want to come over to you. You own TripAdvisor. You know, no direct airline ownership, but certainly just the broader travel sector has the potential at least to be impacted. And for mentioned going into the holiday season, this could have an impact as well.
- [31:10]
Jenny Harrington
Yeah, I mean I think my bet's on that the government shutdown and sooner rather than later, I don't think anyone wants to be on the hook for screwing up everybody's Thanksgiving plans. So as painful as this is in the very short term and worrying about it in the short term, I don't think you extrapolate it out like as a long term investor, I don't think you extrapolate it out to be a long term investment impact to what you have. If you're trading, maybe you can trade around on it. But you know, TripAdvisor just announced and everything was good. Their Viator revenues. And this goes back to the consumer, right? This is the high end consumer who can travel. Viator revenues are up, gross bookings were up, margins expanding, cash flows enormous. Business is good there. I don't think this has a major impact.
- [31:48]
Frank Holland
All right. Looking at airline stocks under some pressure right now, TripAdvisor actually pulling back about three quarters of 1%. Now we're going to go to our Mackenzie Sagalos with a news alert. Matt.
- [31:57]
Bryn
Hey, Frank. So White House and crypto czar David Sachs is pushing back hard on the idea of a federal bailout for America's leading AI firms. He just posted on X that the US has at least five major frontier model companies and that if one of them fails, others will take its place. It all appears to be a not so subtle shot at OpenAI CFO Sarah Fryer, who on Wednesday suggested the US government could help guarantee financing for AI data centers, a move that would lower borrowing costs for companies racing to build massive compute infrastructure. Fryer, she has since walked back those comments. And Sachs, he did say the government should focus on speeding up permitting and power generation, but he emphasized it would be ridiculous to give an AI company a bailout.
- [32:40]
Frank Holland
Frank Sagalos, thank you very much. And just by the way, Open Air CFO will be right here on cnbc Tomorrow at 10am Eastern, speaking with our Sarah Eisen again right here on cnbc. All right. Time now to get to some headlines with our Brian Sullivan. Brian, good afternoon. Hey, Frank. A federal judge dismissing a criminal case against Boeing today over two crashes of a 737 Max airliner jet that resulted in 346 deaths. Judge said it came at the government's request that dismissal part of a deal that requires Boeing to pay or invest an additional $1.1 billion in fines, compensation for crash family victims and internal safety and quality measures. In the meantime, a paramilitary group accusing of displacing and killing thousands of Sudanese civilians said today it agreed to a cease fire proposal from US Led mediators. The agreement to end fighting comes about a week after the rapid support forces seized the last Sudanese military strike stronghold in the western Darfur region. And President Trump will host the leaders of five Central Asian nations today at the White House, including the heads of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The US Is seeking partnerships on critical minerals, energy supplies and trade routes. Central Asia long been dominated by Russian influence and has increasingly been pursued by China. Back to you.
- [33:55]
Scott Wapner
All right.
- [33:55]
Frank Holland
Our Brian Sullivan with the headlines. Brian, thank you very much. Coming up next on halftime, more Today's biggest earnings movers and our top calls of the day. Halftime's back right after this. The holidays mean more travel, more shopping.
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- [34:53]
Frank Holland
All new Saturdays, three eastern. And welcome back to halftime. Let's get to some stocks that are on the move. We're watching Tesla, the company holding its shareholder meeting this afternoon at stake today as shareholders will vote to approve Elon Musk's $1 trillion pay package. Potential pay package. Got to say that Tesla shares pulling back more than 4% brand you own this one. Your view on the vote, the pay package, everything else?
- [35:31]
Bryn
Well I think this is where the retail investor has been just very influential in voicing their, their support of management. And I think with the Sawyer Merit who talked about Schwab putting a lot of pressure on big companies that actually have more meaningful experience exposure to say hey this is a, this is a good package vote with management. So it seems the betting market says this is going to clear. I think it's a very positive clearing event and I mean we've talked about it a bunch but once again for him to get this, it's a 10 year deal just like basic, basic, simple, simple one, one thing that has to happen. The stock has to have an eight and a half trillion dollar market cap. So it's at what 1.3 right now. So there's so many different levers. I think it will pass. It'll be a good clearing event and we can get back to the, to the, to the business of actually the business of Tesla versus this, this proxy vote.
- [36:22]
Frank Holland
All right. That meeting starts at 4pm Eastern time. Want to turn a datadog giving some strength, some very strong outlook. Joe, stocks moving higher right now. Your view.
- [36:30]
Joe Terranova
Billings up 30% revenue up 28%. Cloud based monitoring. They have an agreement with Open Air. They have a relationship with us. Obviously you're being rewarded here if you're long, if you are long. I'd use a 165 stop. Otherwise on a day when it's up 20%, I don't think you want to chase it.
- [36:48]
Frank Holland
All right, there you go. Going to move on to Carmax. Lower on a weak outlook. Also the CEO exiting Jenny on this one.
- [36:54]
Jenny Harrington
Yeah, so actually we just sold it like just you know, a few minutes ago, it's all gone. We sold it at 30 during the show. They sold it in the office. I don't know if it was at like 11:30 or noon or whenever but it was just sold. So we sold for it at 3520. The investment thesis is broken. And what we're worried about here, which goes back to me saying over and over I am worried about the consumer. So once you disaggregate the lower end consumer buys used cars and that we don't think they're saying that the November quarter should be down 8 to 12%. We don't think the used car market is probably that weak which makes us think that they're pulling back on financing because they're having problems with loans. We've all seen the auto loan delinquencies are increasing, increasing especially with the lower end consumer. So we're worried here. We think there's problems that we can't even begin to figure out at this point. And sold the stock.
- [37:39]
Frank Holland
All right, one more we got Costco maintained it outperform over at Telsey. Jason, you own this one? Yeah.
- [37:44]
Jason Snipe
Costco has been a tough story obviously this year. Trading hasn't traded well. It's flat for the year. Operating income in the, in the last quarter was up almost 20%. You know, membership rate renewal rates around 90%. EPS was around, up around 11% percent. What I always say too about cost, they manage it, they manage inflationary costs well. And I think you know, as it relates to their private label brand Kirkland, it's an $80 billion business which is almost a double to Coca Cola. $47 billion in revenue for the entire company. So they've, they've, they've done a great job. New CFO there. But it's just the market doesn't like it so far this year.
- [38:19]
Frank Holland
Great year last year shares of Costco pulling back about 2% right now. Coming up next year on Halftime stadium to the crypto trade. One of the biggest bulls on Bitcoin is trimming their forecast. We're going to debate that call coming up next. And we're back on Halftime. Bitcoin moving lower again today, pulling back about 2 1/2 percent. Ark Invest Cathie Wood telling CNBC earlier today she's trimming her long term bitcoin forecast. Take a listen.
- [38:59]
Brian Sullivan
Stablecoins are usurping part of the role.
- [39:02]
Bryn
That we thought bitcoin would play.
- [39:04]
Brian Sullivan
So our bullish forecast out there is 1.5 million by 2030.
- [39:10]
Bryn
Given what's happening to stablecoins, which are.
- [39:13]
Brian Sullivan
Serving emerging markets in a way that we thought bitcoin would, I think we.
- [39:19]
Bryn
Could take maybe $300,000 off of that bullish case just, just for stablecoins. So watch that space.
- [39:27]
Brian Sullivan
Stablecoins are, are scaling here, I think much faster than anyone would have expected.
- [39:33]
Frank Holland
All right, very quickly, Brent, I'm going to come over to you on the the ibid ETF. You also own a theorem ETF, just your take 300,000 off the forecast. Some of the pressure that we've seen on bitcoin from its peak, it's pulled back more than 15% in October.
- [39:47]
Bryn
Yeah, I mean it's down 20%. I mean stablecoins, everyone's using them from Western Union, MasterCard, JP Morgan, Coin. And so I think in terms of a cash transaction, they are growing. I always love that Cathie has these long term projections. Sometimes they can seem crazy, but then they actually turn out to be true. So if she's right at 1.2 million, that's still well over a 10x in the next five years of Bitcoin. So, so, so that would be a wonderful return regardless of the 300,000 off from, from the stablecoin comment.
- [40:16]
Frank Holland
All right, Joe, you on Coinbase and Robinhood, two companies obviously trade a lot of crypto.
- [40:20]
Joe Terranova
I said yesterday, I think we're a little bit late to the crypto story. Fundamentally, as I said, Britain knows way more than me. But on a momentum perspective, we entered a few positions I think late in the cycle.
- [40:32]
Frank Holland
All right, moving on. Coming up next on Halftime, we're going to take you inside the world of all with yet another big money deal today. Our Leslie Picker is following the money for us. Stick by and welcome back. Charles Schwab is buying private market shares platform for Forge Global in a deal valued at $660 million. It is just the latest financial institution trying to give their clients access to private companies and liquidity and pre IPO shares. Our Leslie Picker joins us now with the very latest. Leslie.
- [41:14]
Jenny Harrington
Hey, Frank. Yeah.
- [41:14]
Brian Sullivan
Charles Schwab's $660 million acquisition of Forge Global, just the latest tie up among a slew of deals involving traditionally liquid and illiquid asset management. This deal is similar to what Morgan Stanley did last week with equities, then with both trad transactions involving platforms used to buy and sell private shares. But we're seeing more and more traditional asset managers buying or partnering with the private market ecosystem to tap into a trend that McKinsey calls the quote, Great Convergence. Individuals are increasingly seeking portfolios that combine public and private exposures. Traditional managers who have been squeezed by the popularity of lower fee passive products have been drawn to the more lucrative and higher fee private markets. And alternative asset managers, which see retail as an imperative growth space, are enticed by traditional managers distribution networks. Despite the flurry of activity in recent weeks, the Great Convergence is only in its opening act, according to McKinsey. And just to highlight the perceived urgency by traditional finance, Frank Schwab is paying a whopping 72% premium over Forge Global's latest closing price. For more on the Great Convergence and other important trends in the alternative asset space, please subscribe to our Insight also newsletter using that QR code on the bottom right hand side of your screen.
- [42:35]
Jenny Harrington
Frank.
- [42:36]
Frank Holland
All right Leslie, thank you very much. Our Leslie Picker. Jenny, want to come over to you. Your own Schwab. What do you think about this deal? What do you think about the idea giving their customers more access to the private markets through this deal?
- [42:46]
Jenny Harrington
So I'm fine with the idea of them giving the customers better access. From the an investment thesis standpoint, it makes zero difference. So here are the numbers. They're paying 660 million and this company has facilitated 14 billion of transactions over the last four over the last 10 years. That compares to Schwab's $10 trillion in client assets. So from an earnings perspective there's just, it's not even a drop, you know, it's not even a half a penny of earnings. Schwab standalone fantastic company. I love that they're thinking forward. It trades at 17 times earnings and they're grow, they're expected to grow earnings 16 and 17%. So you know, great, great. But this doesn't impact the investment thesis.
- [43:24]
Frank Holland
We think about just generally the alts, the push into alts, you and Apollo, Jason, you know this deal obviously putting alts back in the spotlight. But they've been in spotlight a lot for not great reasons like First Brands and Tricolor. Now bringing them back in the form of a deal at least.
- [43:38]
Jason Snipe
No, I think it's interesting. I think, I think to just Jenny's point, I don't know how accretive it is for the longer term story. It's a very small piece in the pie. But if I, if I just talk quickly about Apollo, which I think is a great business, a lot of the players have not traded well this year. Apollo down 20%. But their, their quarter, they had a tremendous quarter. Net income was up 17% year over year, you know, up to $908 billion of AUM, which is a record for them. And they guided up 20% for growth related, fee related earnings. So I like the alt managers in this space and I think they could, they could continue to move going forward, especially into next year.
- [44:13]
Frank Holland
All right, stay with us right here on halftime. We got final trades coming up. Don't go anywhere. Well, back to halftime. We now have final trades. Show T, you're up first.
- [44:27]
Joe Terranova
Just to wrap the show, I want to be clear here. I don't think that you should be tempted here to go short the thinking this is a much larger move. Look at Apple. Apple's higher. The market doesn't want the liquidity. It just wants to work off some of the extreme sentiment and bullishness. Jenny said government shutdown probably coming to an end. I agree. Probably ends by Monday or Tuesday.
- [44:48]
Frank Holland
Brent.
- [44:50]
Bryn
RSP if you want to play health care, I like the equal weight health care versus XLV, which has almost 13% in just one stock. Eli Lilly.
- [44:59]
Joe Terranova
Jason, Palo Alto.
- [45:01]
Jason Snipe
I continue to like this pivot that Paolo made in acquiring Cyber Arc. I think that's a great.
- [45:07]
Jenny Harrington
Western Union is having their investor today as we speak. I'm jealous I'm not there. And they're probably talking about what Bryn mentioned before, which is even there, entering the crypto space in a strategic way.
- [45:17]
Frank Holland
All right, that's going to do it for halftime. The exchange starts right now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the popular podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays.
- [45:28]
Scott Wapner
At 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [45:33]
Brian Sullivan
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer CNBC's Changemakers 2026 list spotlighting women who innovate, lead boldly and are transforming business. Do you know someone who is rewriting the future? Nominate them now@cnbc.com changemakers.