The Record Setting Rally 6/27/25

Summary

Halftime Report: The Record Setting Rally (6/27/25)
Released on June 27, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report, host Scott Wapner delves into the ongoing record-setting rally in the stock markets. Joined by analysts Stephanie Link, Kevin Simpson, Bryn Talkington, and Brian Belsky, the panel explores the factors driving the market's unprecedented highs, assesses the sustainability of the current trend, and discusses sector-specific performances amidst geopolitical developments.

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Market Overview

Scott Wapner opens the discussion by highlighting the remarkable performance of major indices:

"[...] Both the S&P and Nasdaq are hitting new highs. The Dow is up more than 1% today."
[01:00]

The panel acknowledges the optimistic market sentiment, with Wolf Research predicting the rally could extend into mid to late July before potentially consolidating:

"Wolf research today says this rally could continue to run into mid to late July before consolidating."
[01:02]

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Key Discussions

1. Market Rally: Reasons and Sustainability

Stephanie Link attributes the rally to decreased market volatility and a surge in hyper-growth mid-cap stocks:

"There's this collective basket of stocks... up between like 50 and 200% over the last six months to one year."
[04:09]

Bryn Talkington emphasizes the panel’s bullish stance, noting the decrease in the VIX as a positive indicator:

"The VIX almost at 60, which is covered. [...] the fact that it's down to 16 is an indication that maybe you just kind of sit back and enjoy the ride."
[02:06-02:19]

2. FOMO vs. Fundamental Strength

The conversation shifts to whether the rally is fueled by Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) or genuine market fundamentals. Stephanie Link suggests that while FOMO exists in certain high-flying stocks, broader index returns remain modest:

"Index level returns year to date are quite benign. Where the FOMO is is in this collective basket of stocks."
[04:09-04:45]

Bryn Talkington counters by highlighting the strategic positioning of their portfolios, avoiding purely FOMO-driven trades:

"We have been excessively bullish during this entire time, maintained our bullish stance. So we have no fear of missing out because we've been there the entire time."
[03:44-03:58]

3. President’s Comments and Market Impact

A significant portion of the episode covers recent White House briefings with remarks from the President on trade policies, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions, particularly with Iran. Brian Belsky provides insights into the administration’s aggressive tariff strategies aimed at reducing trade deficits:

"We are taking in hundreds of billions of dollars from China and a lot of other countries... We're putting in $60 billion into new plants and new equipment."
[16:03-16:30]

The panel discusses how these trade policies are fueling economic growth by attracting foreign investments and boosting domestic manufacturing:

"Companies are coming into our country that didn't for a while... We're seeing factories being built, auto plants being established."
[19:00-20:10]

4. Sector Analysis: Technology, Financials, Cybersecurity

Stephanie Link and Bryn Talkington analyze the standout sectors contributing to the rally:

• Technology: Continued advancements in AI and substantial investments in data centers are propelling the tech sector.

  "AI is the main driver... We are seeing massive demand in AI infrastructure."
  [30:00-30:40]

• Financials: Robust performances from major banks, with Goldman Sachs, Citi, and JP Morgan hitting record highs.

  "Financials are set up because of all this trading volume."
  [31:09]

• Cybersecurity: Increased geopolitical tensions have heightened the demand for cybersecurity solutions, benefiting companies like CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, and Fortinet.

  "Cybersecurity is going to be bigger than AI... We are seeing massive consolidation in the sector."
  [43:06-44:00]

Stephanie underscores the anticipated growth in cybersecurity spending:

"Morgan Stanley projects that cybersecurity spend will surge from $15 billion in 2021 to $135 billion by 2030."
[44:56]

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Specific Stock Highlights

• Robinhood: Despite fierce competition, Robinhood continues to expand its user base and Assets Under Management (AUM), showcasing resilience and growth potential.

  "Everything that they're doing is amazing. The amount of users is going up daily."
  [28:00]

• Nike and Disney: Recent upgrades and positive earnings reports have spurred investor confidence in these iconic companies.

  "Disney has done a pretty good job in their streaming... We're happy with the results we've seen lately."
  [38:08-38:44]

• Tesla vs. Uber Debate: In a spirited debate, the panel weighs the prospects of Tesla and Uber for the next six months. Stephanie Link advocates for Uber's diversified business model, while Bryn Talkington remains optimistic about Tesla's long-term potential.

  Stephanie: "Uber is diversified... 15% gross bookings and 35% EBITDA growth make more sense to me."
  [46:30-47:22]

  Bryn: "From a total return perspective over the next 12 months, we think Uber will outperform."
  [47:27-48:08]

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Conclusion

As the markets reach new heights, the Halftime Report panel remains cautiously optimistic, attributing the rally to a combination of strategic trade policies, sectoral strengths, and robust corporate performances. While FOMO plays a role in certain high-growth stocks, underlying fundamentals and decreased volatility provide a solid foundation for continued growth. The discussions underscore the importance of diversification and strategic positioning in navigating the dynamic market landscape.

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Notable Quotes

• Scott Wapner: "Because better trading starts with finding what you need fast."
  [00:16]

• Stephanie Link: "AI is going to be bigger than AI... cybersecurity is going to be bigger."
  [43:06]

• Brian Belsky: "We've taken in hundreds of billions of dollars from China and a lot of other countries."
  [16:03]

• Bryn Talkington: "We have been excessively bullish... we have no fear of missing out because we've been there the entire time."
  [03:44-03:58]

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Key Takeaways

• Record Market Highs: Major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are reaching new all-time highs, driven by decreased volatility and strong performances in specific sectors.

• Bullish Sentiment: Analysts remain optimistic about the market's trajectory, citing strategic trade policies and significant sectoral growth, particularly in technology and financials.

• Sector Performance: Technology, financials, and cybersecurity are leading the charge, with substantial investments and earnings growth fueling investor confidence.

• Strategic Investments: Diversification and strategic positioning are emphasized as crucial for capitalizing on the ongoing market rally, with debates highlighting the merits of different high-growth stocks.

• Geopolitical Influence: Ongoing trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions, especially with Iran, are influencing market dynamics and investment strategies.

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This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the Halftime Report episode on June 27, 2025, providing a clear and engaging overview for listeners and readers alike.

Transcript

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[Scott Wapner]

Mobile.Com I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. All right, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner front and center this hour, this record setting rally. Both the S and P and Nasdaq hitting new highs. We're trading the markets, of course, with the investment committee today. As always. Joining me for the hour, Stephanie Link, Kevin Simpson, Bryn Talkington and Brian Belsky. Let's see where we are. We have a very good day in front of us today. Dow is good for more than 1% s and p. Nasdaq also higher. Wolf research today says this rally could continue to run into mid to late July before consolidating. Kevin Simpson, I love your note to our group today, no trades, which is rare for you because you're always doing something. But you said sometimes you buy stocks, sometimes you sell stocks and sometimes you just let your horses run. Why is this one of those times?

[Stephanie Link]

You know, it's incredible how far we've come since April.

[Scott Wapner]

We saw the Vix almost at 60, which is covered. Call writer's dream as Brin can contest. But the, the fact that it's down to 16, 16 and a half is an indication that maybe you just kind.

[Stephanie Link]

Of sit back and you enjoy the.

[Scott Wapner]

Ride and literally there's an Inverse relationship.

[Stephanie Link]

Often between volatility and market performance.

[Scott Wapner]

We're seeing it here. I think it can continue. It doesn't last forever, but we're going to sit back and take advantage of it for sure. It feels like Brian and some are talking about that we were about to reach. If we're not already in the FOMO stage of this ra, maybe it's already here. Maybe people like you represent the FOMO trade just the other day, raising your price target back to where it was because you think this market's going higher and you don't want to miss out.

[Bryn Talkington]

I don't think we represent the fear of missing out trade at all. Scott. When we made our move in April, we said in our note that we own what we own. We made absolutely no allocation changes to our portfolios. As I said on the show the other day when we talked about the upgrade, we've had one of the best quarterly performances of myself running money in over 20 years. Again, when you set a market target and as a strategist, you live by the sword and die by the sword. I believe that it's an academic practice. I believe that investors should not follow a strategist market target and how they invest. And so we've been excessively bullish during this entire time, maintained our bullish stance. So we have no. Ourselves, we have no fear of missing out because we've been there the entire time.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, I mean, I don't even mean it as. It doesn't have to be meant as a negative. It just sort of is what it is. This market just continues to go higher. Brin and investors obviously don't want to miss what kind of gains they think might be ahead. Are we at that stage of this move and is this what continues to take the market higher from even these levels?

[Stephanie Link]

Well, I think the index level returns year to date are quite benign. Where the FOMO is is in this collective, this basket of stocks. I own some of them, I don't own others. Core Weave Circle, palantir, Robinhood, roadblocks, etc. That are up between like 50 and 200% over the last six months to one year. And so you have this basket of hyper growth, I would say mid cap names that have just gone, I think, quite parabolic. And so to me, I definitely can see that. But the headlines, to me, the top line index levels, I think are just.

[Scott Wapner]

Forgive me. Forgive me, Brent, I have to interrupt you. We're going to go to the White House where the President is taking questions out of that news conference and we're.

[Brian Belsky]

In the process of making some others, but ultimately, in fact, Scott is here. Howard Lutnick. These two guys have been doing an incredible job, and the people that work with them have been doing an incredible job. But, you know, we have 200 countries. You could say 200 countries plus. We can't do that. So at a certain point over the next week and a half or so, or maybe before we're going to send out a letter, we talk to many of the countries, and we're just going to tell them what they have to pay to do business in the United States. And it's going to go very quickly. But some of the bigger countries, India, I think we're going to reach a deal where we have the right to go in and trade. Right now, it's restricted. You can't walk in there. You can't even think about it. We're looking to get a full trade barrier dropping, which is unthinkable, and I'm not sure that that's going to happen. But as of this moment, we've agreed to that. Go into Indian trade. We're going to be trading in China. That's going to come a little bit down the road, but we're going to be trading in China. We have a lot of great things going, and we're getting along with countries, but some will be disappointed because they're going to have to tariffs, and we've taken in already hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs. No inflation. The only problem we have is we have a Fed guy that doesn't understand what's happening, and it would be great if he'd lower the rate because we'd be able to borrow a lot cheaper. Yeah, go ahead, please. Why don't we keep it on this subject? This is such a big subject.

[Bryn Talkington]

You know what?

[Brian Belsky]

Trade is so big, but this, I don't know. In a certain way, this might be bigger than trade.

[Stephanie Link]

Mr. President, apologize.

[Brian Belsky]

I think this is bigger than trade. Yes, please, go ahead. I was wondering, though, if you could.

[Scott Wapner]

Go ahead, sir, on the transgender ruling, the Supreme Court ruling that parents with religious objections can pull their kids out of public school lessons that use LGBTQ materials.

[Stephanie Link]

Pam brought it up. Your reaction to that ruling today, sir?

[Brian Belsky]

I think the ruling was a great ruling, and I think it's a great ruling for parents. It's really a ruling for parents. They lost control of the schools. They lost control of their child. And this is a tremendous victory for parents, and I'm not surprised by it, but I am surprised that it went this far. It took us to bring life back to normal. So it's a wonderful. It's parental. And I kept saying, we will give you back your parental rights. They were taken away. And this is a tremendous victory for parents. Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

Mr. President, if you look at the back at the last week, it's been extraordinary in terms of the action in the Middle East. You are at the Hague.

[Brian Belsky]

I'm wondering now of a week, hasn't it.

[Scott Wapner]

I'm wondering now if you believe that Iran.

[Bryn Talkington]

Wondering now, sir, if you believe that.

[Scott Wapner]

Iran has given up its long history.

[Bryn Talkington]

Of ambitions with nuclear weapons or what.

[Scott Wapner]

You would like to see from them.

[Bryn Talkington]

To prove that they do.

[Scott Wapner]

And what type of meetings is your administration looking for next week with Iran?

[Brian Belsky]

So Iran wants to meet. As you know, their sites were obliterated. They're very evil nuclear sites. They were now has been proven. We had some fake news for a little while. The same people that covered the Hunter Biden laptop was from Russia. The same people that did three or four, the Russia, Russia, Russia hoax.

[Bryn Talkington]

But on their end.

[Brian Belsky]

No, no, wait, wait, just listen. They came up with something that delayed the credit that our great pilots and these great American. I mean, they. What talent that was. And they hit it right down in the spot. 52,000ft. Think of this dark, no moon, you couldn't see a thing. And they hit the refrigerator door, as they say, that's the size of a target. And overwhelmingly, and it's amazing what was done. We're the only ones that could have done it. And we took out the other two of the other sites also. In addition to that, we finished them off. That was very evil intention. I believe that. And again, time will tell, but I don't believe that they're going to go back into nuclear anytime soon. They spent over a trillion dollars on nuclear and they never got it together. And nothing was moved from the site, by the way, to do that is very dangerous. It's very, very heavy material. Those cars were most likely the cars of masons because they were pouring concrete at the top, at the hatch, as you know, the hatch going into the nuclear site. They wanted to reinforce it. And they had some masons there pouring concrete. By the way, that concrete was obliterated. It hit exactly at the concrete. It was. I don't think it had a chance to dry, but everything's down there. It's under millions of tons of rock.

[Stephanie Link]

Your administration has said that El Salvador is one of the safest countries in the hemisphere. So why haven't you yet canceled temporary.

[Scott Wapner]

Protective status to that country.

[Stephanie Link]

Was it part of the deal?

[Brian Belsky]

Well, we'll take a look. We've had a great relationship with El Salvador. They have a fantastic leader. They built a massive prison system. And I don't know exactly why, but it's a hell of a system. And we bring people there. And when they go there, they don't get out. And frankly, when they're here, they have to go there. They become very nice people. They become very nice people. It's a tough system, but it's a brilliant system. And it's a system done by a very, very good leader. We'll talk about El Salvador. A lot of respect.

[Scott Wapner]

Thank you.

[Stephanie Link]

A question for.

[Bryn Talkington]

And then a question for the attorney general. As you go into negotiations and talks.

[Stephanie Link]

With Iran, are you demanding not only.

[Scott Wapner]

That there would be no uranium production.

[Stephanie Link]

Inside of Iran, but also that Iran would turn over all existing stockpiles of uranium?

[Brian Belsky]

Well, you know, we're a little early for that, but something like that. Yeah, we'll do something like that. Let me say that I've been saying for 25 years, even as a civilian, you cannot let them have nuclear weapon. And that's what happened. It's been obliterated. It would be years before they could ever get going. And I really think it's probably the last thing they have to recover from a hell of a tough war.

[Stephanie Link]

Would you also be demanding that the IAEA have full rights to inspect in Iran or somebody.

[Brian Belsky]

Yeah, or somebody that we respect, including ourselves. And a question for both the president.

[Bryn Talkington]

And the attorney general.

[Stephanie Link]

Under birthright citizenship, if this is implemented, who would be tasked with actually vetting citizenship?

[Bryn Talkington]

And like, would this be a situation.

[Stephanie Link]

Where you have nurses and doctors checking for citizenship of parents or.

[Bryn Talkington]

This is all pending litigation.

[Stephanie Link]

It's going to be decided in October by the Supreme Court, and we'll discuss that after the litigation.

[Scott Wapner]

If you have an undocumented baby, would.

[Stephanie Link]

That baby then be an enforcement priority? The violent criminals in our country are.

[Scott Wapner]

For anything more that we think we need to discuss related to the markets and the economy. Of course, this news conference called so the. The president can react to those Supreme Court decisions today. But he did comment, as you heard, on tariffs, in which he said a decision on many of the levels will be done within the next week and a half. He does continue, as you did hear there as well, to criticize Fed Chair Powell, a Fed guy who doesn't understand what's happening. Those are the exact words of President Trump there. And a comment on Iran as well. He said he doesn't believe Iran will move back to its nuclear enrichment program, quote, anytime soon again. We'll monitor that. We'll bring anything that transpires from the briefing room there. But I should touch on the market too, because we are at the highs of the day. The Dow is good for 500 points right now. The S and P with a new record high today along with the Nasdaq. Steph, I want to turn to you. Brent, I'll come back to you. Forgive me for having to interrupt you there, but we wanted to go to Washington. It leads me to, I guess, you know, as we're still waiting, as the president said, on these final levels for tariffs, whether there is some degree of complacency about the risks that still abound. It's not like we've taken care of everything. If you look at the economic data today, there are some who will say, well, that's more evidence of potential stagflation. We still have the tariff issue unresolved and yet we march to new highs and now beyond.

[Stephanie Link]

But we got to such extreme, Scott, in April and May and it's been pretty hated, this rally. And that speaks to the $7 trillion of cash on the sidelines. Right? So, so there's that. So to me, I think we've slowly getting some answers. Not all, but some answers. You heard the president on trade. So we're making progress on trade. We're making progress on the geopolitical front. That seems to be calming down. Don't know, but it seems to be inflation. The University of Michigan today has the one year inflation expectations lower than in a year from now, like 5% from 6.6%. And then of course you have the Fed. That's kind of the wild card. But it did, we talked about this the other day that it did sound like Fed Chair Powell was a little more, I thought it was a little more dovish in that he said we're waiting on tariffs. If we didn't have tariffs, we would have been cutting by now. So I added it all up. The latest Atlantic Fed tracker GDP is 2.9%. That's not stagflation. And inflation was okay. It's sticky. And then earnings are growing. I think earnings are going to grow double digits going forward.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, President's making some comments, we're told regarding the tax bill. Let's listen.

[Brian Belsky]

68, a record, the highest in the history. The Democrats won't approve it only because politically it's so good for the Republicans. The Democrats aren't approving it. But think of what they're not approving. They're not approving border security. We've done a great job at the border, but we have to add some war. We have to do, you know, various things. We have no money for that. We have no money for the border. We have no money for so many things. But if the Democrats. It'd be interesting to see if we get any Democrat votes. We should. If I were a Democrat, I would absolutely. Maybe Fetterman, because he seems to be the most sensible one lately. If I were a Democrat, I would vote for this bill all day long because it's tax cuts and so many other things that are common sense. They're basic things. I think they're doing fine. The parliamentarian's been a little difficult, and I would say that I disagree with the parliamentarian on some things and on other ways. He's been fine, but we'll have to see. It's. It's a big issue. But I will tell you this. If that bill doesn't pass, the country will get a 68.68percent tax increase. So think of this. You're a Democrat and you vote against it. That means you're voting in favor because essentially you're voting in favor of the largest tax hike in the history of our country. And you can't do that. In addition, we're cutting costs by $1.7 trillion and it won't affect anybody. It's just fraud, waste and abuse. Mr. President, Mr. President, a leading. Mr. President, a leading global economist just did a 180 and says, your tariff plan. You may have outsmarted everybody with it. What is your message? I love this. I love this question. This is the favorite. This is the best question I've ever been asked because I've been going through abuse for years on this because as you know, we're taking in hundreds of billions of dollars. No inflation whatsoever. But, Mr. President, what is your message.

[Stephanie Link]

To critics who think your tariff plan.

[Brian Belsky]

Will cause a recession? I think they should go back to business school. It's so obvious. It's so obvious. I mean, we're. We're taking in billions and billions of dollars from China and a lot of other countries we took in. I had a call from somebody in the House and high official. Sir, we have a problem. We don't know what to do. The books are a mess. I said, what do you mean by the books? The books. The money. The money coming in. It's so terrible. I figured, oh, boy, what's this? I don't like this question. I said, so what What? Seems there's so much money coming in and there must be some kind of an accounting mistake because we have hundreds of billions of dollars more money than we thought. I said, do me a favor, go check the. Call me back. You have to call me back. Check the tariff column. Calls me back two hours later, says, you're right, we took in 88 billion in tariffs. They have so much money coming in. But more important than the money coming in, we have companies coming in, factories coming in, auto plants being built. AI is being built here instead of being built all over Europe and Asia. We have all of it. We have over $15 trillion. Just about, Scott, I think we're right about that at that number. We went to Saudi Arabia, we went to Qatar, we went to uae. Very smart people, very smart leaders, great leaders. And we took in $5.1 trillion just there without the tariffs. I mean, they also liked a thing called November 5th, November 6th and November 7th. That was a very good little period of time. It's called the presidential election. You know, you used to have one day election, now you have it, go over it. But even if you just took that little period because it was pretty obvious it was going to be a landslide, but. And they like that, but they love the tariffs. I had Texas Instruments come in the other day, big company, and he said, we're putting in $60 billion into new plants and new equipment, new everything. Sir, you're going to keep the tariffs, aren't you? Because whoever took the tariffs off and we are going to absolutely keep it. And they're worried that somebody that like this communist from New York someday gets elected. I can't believe that's happening. That's a terrible thing for our country. By the way, he's a communist. We're going to go to a communistic that's so bad for New York, but the rest of the country is revolting against it. But if somebody got elected, they're afraid that if this was taken off, well, we're going to guarantee it's never going to be taken off. And again, we're taking in hundreds. Think of this, hundreds of billions of dollars. And they were all confused because they've never seen this before. You know, it's always the other way. We don't have enough money. So much money is coming in at levels that nobody's ever seen. But most importantly, we have factories being built, car plants being built, companies moving to our country like never before. If you look at 15 trillion, and that's only in a few months. You know, I Haven't been been here that long presidents like the last one was a disaster. One of the. He's the worst president in the history of our country. By the way, what he did on our border can never ever be forgotten. To me, that's the worst of all the things and he's done some terrible things. Grossly incompetent. Nobody knew it was him because I don't think it was him. I think it was whoever was controlling the auto pen. But our country is doing great. And those leaders and other leaders. I just left as you know, a large group of the most highly respected people and that includes big, you know, big countries. When you look at Germany and France and Spain, although Spain didn't come through, but they will, by the way, guaranteed they will. That was the only country that sort of tried to hold back on putting up the money. But just so you know, they said it's unbelievable what's happened to the usa. You were a dead country. We didn't respect the country. The leader. You were dead as a doornail. One said to me, you went from being a dead country. You are right now the hottest country anywhere in the world. The whole world is talking about the USA and everybody wants a part of it and they're pouring into our country. And you're going to see those numbers. Thank you for the question.

[Stephanie Link]

Go ahead. Yeah, go ahead. Thank you. Mr. President. I have a question about trade. Secretary Besant has said that he hopes tariff deals with major partners will be done by Labor Day. So if some deals are not done by your July 9 deadline, will some countries tariffs go back up or will they stay where they are?

[Brian Belsky]

Well, there are some countries that are used to ripping us off, to be honest with you, and I don't want to name them, but you sort of can name them. And they're so used to just, you know, getting, taking billions and billions of. Look, we had a trade deficit of more than a trillion dollars. Think of a trillion a trade deficit. That's because nobody cared. Nobody. We cared a lot. When, you know, I took in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariff. We had the greatest economy in history up until now. I think we're going to blow it away. But during my time and especially prior to Covid, we had the greatest economy in the history of our country. I think we're going to blow it away now based on the kind of numbers that we're seeing. But some countries are very angry because they've been ripping us off for years. They've been making billions and billions of dollars There was nobody to negotiate with. They could do whatever they want. They charged us tariffs, by the way, at numbers that we've never seen before. And we ended up losing much more than a trillion dollars a year. A trillion dollars a year on trade. And now they're being met with a force that's far greater than them, and they don't like it. So they're upset because instead of making, you know, $5 billion, they're going to break even. Or they'll make a little bit. I want to be nice. They'll make a little bit. Oh, we'll make a little bit. It's a big difference. Yeah. Please, go ahead.

[Scott Wapner]

Red dress on the 2020 election.

[Stephanie Link]

Is there any more information on the special policy prosecutor? So many Americans still have questions about the 2020 election. And speaking of rogue judges, would you consider appointing somebody at doj, maybe to investigate the judges that allowed for the political persecution of you, your family, and your supporters during the Biden administration?

[Brian Belsky]

I love you.

[Stephanie Link]

Who are you from? Lindell tv?

[Brian Belsky]

Well, it's just a very nice question, and it's not a setup. I have no idea who you are, but I appreciate that question. All I can say is we're not here for that. I hope so. I hope they're doing a thing, because that election was rigged and stolen, and we can't allow that to happen. You know, a lot of people tell me, sir, you just won the greatest election in the history of our country. You won it. Numbers that won all seven swing states, won the popular vote, won everything, sir. Go on with your life. And the many people that say that, good people, friends of mine. Then you have people that say that same thing. Go on with your life. But you have to find out what happened, because you can't let that happen again. Look at what this lunatic did. Look at what he did. He opened our borders to people that were murderers. 11,888, to be exact. Murderers. And we've captured many of those murderers, and we're bringing them back. Or some of them are so dangerous that we don't even want to bring them back. We're afraid they're going to try and come back in. But he allowed people to come into this country. People from mental institutions, insane asylums. That's a mental institution on steroids. People from mental institutions, gang members, drug dealers, people. Oh, jails being emptied out into our country. Venezuela emptied out almost its entire prison population into our country. But I don't want to blame them. Many countries have done that. The Congo, you know, we have A great press conference coming up later. And it's the Congo.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, we'll come back and focus on that chart that we were just showing you there. That of course, the president in the briefing room, wide ranging comments, of course, tariffs, taxes, even the New York City mayoral race. But we're following a market that is at record highs right now. Brent, I'll come back to you and forgive me for interrupting you earlier, but there's a belief too that There are not 100% believers in this market yet. And there's a lot of money on the sideline that is going to see what's happening on days like today, whether it's fear of missing out or just want a piece of the action and money's going to come in. I want you to hear what Rick Reeder told us yesterday on closing bell and have your reaction to it. On the other side. You look at the amount of cash that's sitting out there, the amount of we were looking at the total net.

[Stephanie Link]

Worth to the size of the fixed.

[Scott Wapner]

Income market, size of the equity market globally. There is so much money that wants.

[Brian Belsky]

To come into the market that didn't for a while. And I just think if you don't have any negative news, the natural gravitational.

[Scott Wapner]

Pull is across all these assets. You think about what Rick Reeder had to say?

[Stephanie Link]

Yeah, well, I think, you know, when we see the cash on the sidelines, we've actually researched this, the cash on the sidelines has actually never come off the sidelines. So I don't think that's a catalyst. I do think though, as the market has made the NASDAQ and the S and P made these highs, I think the only people that bought the dip were mainly the retail investors. And so I think that people who were calling for recession, people that were panicking from an institutional perspective are still very underweight. This right, because remember, technology was dead just two months ago and now we're seeing Nvidia break out to all time highs. And I do think, you know, in video, which is what close to 7 and a half percent of the S&P and 9% of the NASDAQ. This is incredibly bullish that after a year of consolidation, now the largest company in both indexes continues to make new highs every day. I think that's going to continue to lead gravitate people into tech. But I still do believe though, as I was talking about earlier, there is this FOMO underneath the market in these small and I say mid cap tech stocks that have really to me a lot of them have gone parabolic.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah. You know, if you look at for example, high beta, Brian, those names are flying. The more volatile names within the market that some are flagging. You know, the ETF that tracks that space is at a new high. Some would suggest lower quality names like Brin is alluding to there. If you go to the momentum names, the momentum ETF is at a record high as well. The gains from the April low are extraordinary for the palantirs of the world. 88%. Nobody suggesting that these companies are lower in quality, obviously, but look at the moves. They're just straight parabolic. 88 for NRG and 86 for Vistra and 76 for Vernova and 73 for Broadcom. Some of the cruise lines, industrials. What do we think about that?

[Bryn Talkington]

Well, I think it's part and parcel what we talked about in terms of the broadening out, number one. Number two, I think why we are positioned for financial sector earnings to be just lights out for the second quarter. Scott. Because what does volatility mean for financials? It means that the capital markets business are doing a lot of trading and the wealth businesses and Brin absolutely nailed it. The private wealth people got this right. They've been investing all along and allocating to stocks. So I think financials are set up because of all this trading volume. But look at that list of stocks. We're not talking about the Mag 7 there. We're talking aside from Broadcom technically. But at the end of the day we're starting to see more broadening out in technology and that actually has been our call all along for the year. So we think this is very healthy for the market, not just all about momentum.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, I mean it's a Robinhood kind of market. Target goes to 96 from 64. 96 from 64. Show the stock, guys, please. Reiterated by it. Compassion point. There it is. I mean it's blown past 64, so you just chased it up to 96. Kev, that's a name that, that you've owned.

[Stephanie Link]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

Both Brent and I have Robinhood. This is a stock that I just.

[Stephanie Link]

Can'T stop falling in love with.

[Scott Wapner]

Everything that they're doing is amazing. The amount of users is going up daily. The AUM is incredible.

[Bryn Talkington]

And when you think about this stock.

[Scott Wapner]

Longer term, not as a meme trade or someone playing on their phones, looking at crypto, this is an infrastructure for the wealth generation of the next multiple decades.

[Bryn Talkington]

Bryn.

[Scott Wapner]

It's a Roblox kind of market. 7 straight winning weeks up. 11 out of 12 weeks up 58% in the last couple of months. And you sold it?

[Stephanie Link]

Yeah. You know, we've been talking about this name. I've owned it for about two and a half years, maybe a little bit longer. And I think that this is an important conversation. It's easy to buy a stock. You're going to have your reasons. But when do you sell? And so what I like to do is re underwrite my name pretty frequently but especially after a big move like this. I love the team at roadblocks, etcetera, etcetera, But I really feel like the stock growth and the financial growth have gotten dislocated. And so whereas the stock is up to your point year to date, 50% over the last one year, about 180%. The revenues are only growing about 25%. There's no E in the name. And so this is where one of those names that I just think that I've had a great run. I don't fall in love with stocks and in fact I know the data that over very long periods of time over 50% of stocks don't even outperform a 90 day T bill. So I thought it was time to move on. I think the stock is ahead of itself and, and so we move on and find other names that I feel are undervalued.

[Scott Wapner]

Steph, it's a Quanta services market up 54% from the April low. It's a GE Vernova as we said. Market up 76% from the low. Is it Eaton market up 41% from the low.

[Stephanie Link]

I have a basket as you know but they've all really, you know what.

[Scott Wapner]

A lot of people have baskets now of these kinds of stocks because so many stocks have parabolic moves like the ones that I've documented because it's all.

[Stephanie Link]

About it is AI. It's an AI play, a data center grid and then power and we have 1.7 trillion megaprojects out there and only 16% have been completed. And I am a firm believer that we are going to see 4 trillion plus in spend on electrification between now and 2050. That's a long ways to go but it's such a momentum and a tailwind for these companies and they have record orders, record backlogs, margins are going higher. And I just think this is a different way of playing that Nvidia theme And you know I own Broadcom, but this is a different way of playing the AI space.

[Scott Wapner]

It's Brian A financials market, that sector hitting a record high today on track for the second positive month in a row. Month to date. Just month to date. Right. We're three weeks in. Goldman's up 14 and a half percent, Citi's up 12. You have that. You have JP Morgan, which has been at a record high. That's up 9.5%. B of A and Wells on that list too, 7.5% and 7% respectively.

[Bryn Talkington]

Yeah, we own all of them for very different reasons. But again, I think it's going to be a bang on and very surprising second quarter earnings period. Scott. But also as mentioned earlier about climbing the wall of worry, man from the institutional perspective, my institutional accounts around the world have been underweight financials in the US they have not participated. So going back to your original theme that we talked about at the top of the show, in terms of fear missing out, I think there's going to be an increasingly fear of missing out trade in financials, especially when they react to the earnings that I think are again going to be absolutely stellar.

[Brian Belsky]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

And they're coming really soon too. You've seen it in some of the private equity names as well, which have really picked up lately on this optimism about the market, whether it's IPOs, M&A and maybe, just maybe a piece of animal spirits coming in the second half of the year too. Up next, pops and drops for some Dow stocks. Today we'll debate the big moves in Nike and Boeing and Disney and McDonald's. We are back right after this. How will you shape the future of banking with confidence? Industry consolidation, crypto, the rise of fintechs all create a complex landscape for banks to innovate and grow. EY provides domain led insights to navigate today's fragmented banking sector. So whether you're tackling regulatory complexities, integrating digital assets or seizing M and A opportunities, EY sees your business from every angle. Working together to deliver outcomes that create strategic value. Eyes shape the future with confidence.

[Stephanie Link]

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[Scott Wapner]

All right, we're back. We're showing you shares of Nice. That stock's a ripper today, up 17%. So, Brian Belsky, you own the stock. We talked about it going in to the print. So you still had the biggest year over year revenue and EPS decline in five years. The question obviously that the market has made its decision on is that the worst is now behind this company. Is that true?

[Bryn Talkington]

Man, I'm so glad Linkster's on with me today because her and I have gone back and forth on this name for a long time. And the last time I was on set, we talked about Nike again and my value portfolio. Sometimes you buy value stocks and put stocks in a value portfolio for the turnaround. And we bought this stock because operationally we really thought it was going to be turning around. We saw that from a valuation and earnings growth basis, this stock had a lot of problems. But obviously with the news today, it's starting to come out to fruition with respect to these operational issues that they've changed. So that's the quintessential type of value bottom. We feel good about the report and we still like the stock.

[Scott Wapner]

I mean, let's be clear though, nothing's happened yet, Right. You can't claim any bit of victory on any bit of turnaround. You're just thinking that maybe now the turnaround can actually start. Right?

[Bryn Talkington]

Yeah, I mean, I think when you. Yeah. When you start to see these types of things and you're starting to see a move like this and people start to believe it, we're not the only ones kind of thinking that the turn is coming. So again, it's affirmation confirmation. It's still early. But you know, last time I check, when you're an investor, you want to be early, not be chasing things after they've moved. Sure.

[Scott Wapner]

But I mean, you know, absolutely nothing.

[Stephanie Link]

Good in the quarter. Nothing.

[Scott Wapner]

I just handed to stuff.

[Stephanie Link]

I mean, direct down 14, digital down 10. North America down 11. China down 21. They haven't invested in their products in years. That's a problem. And now you have so much competition. I have no doubt they'll get back, but I just think this is at least a two year turnaround. I'm all about turnarounds, you all know that. But this One I think you have. I would sell it today.

[Scott Wapner]

You would sell it?

[Stephanie Link]

Yeah, I would.

[Brian Belsky]

Wow.

[Scott Wapner]

Because that's a statement in and of itself. When the turnaround guru on the halftime report takes a look at this and says, I'm not even touching it now. And Brian, what do you make of that? I'd sell it here for all the reasons that Steph just articulated to you.

[Bryn Talkington]

Well, we run several different type of benchmarks and portfolios. This is only in our value portfolio. And I love when you hear people say, this is a very small position.

[Scott Wapner]

Dude, just play it straight with me, man. Just play it straight with me. She says sell it. She doesn't believe in the turnaround. I don't care about 4,000 different portfolios and which one you hold it in, man. Come on.

[Bryn Talkington]

It's 10 different portfolios. We've been doing it for years. If Steph's going to be a tactical investor and look at Nike, she should be selling. If I was a technical tactical investor, I'd be selling.

[Scott Wapner]

She's not a tactical investor. She's not an in and out today, tomorrow kind of investor. She's not that. She's as long term investor as we've ever had on this program.

[Bryn Talkington]

I'm not going to question her process in terms of turnaround. If she doesn't think it's a turnaround, it doesn't turn around. For my perspective, owning it in a value portfolio. We own it today.

[Stephanie Link]

He should sell it. I would sell it. I would.

[Scott Wapner]

What do you think? He should sell it?

[Stephanie Link]

I mean, we talk about being early.

[Scott Wapner]

Belsky.

[Stephanie Link]

We sold it in April of 2022 at $135.

[Scott Wapner]

It went down 60%. I use this pop to sell calls or get out of the position.

[Stephanie Link]

I agree with Stephanie.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, let's go. Boeing upgraded today to buy from neutral member. This is all Dow stocks on the move today. Target 275 from 180. Steph, I'll give you this one.

[Stephanie Link]

Boeing, well, it is up. Speaking of Turnarounds, it's up 55% from its low. So is GE. They trade on the same. Right. GE delivers the engines. But it is, it is a turnaround. It's the CEO doing a really good job at executing last quarter. I think we talked about it was the first quarter in like five years. They had operating margins that were up year over year. So the deliveries are coming on track. They're going to increase them and the cash flow is going to go from -2.2 billion this year. I think it could get to 12 billion as they deliver more planes by 2027. And the stock is trading at a big discount to its EV, to EBITDA, EV to free cash flow multiple 24 times versus its historical average of 38 times. So I like the CEO. He's doing a good job. Duopoly too.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Brian, Disney 137 the new target at CFR. They reiterate their buy 140 is the new target at Guggenheim and that stock is at a 52 week high today.

[Bryn Talkington]

Disney's actually done a pretty good job in their streaming stuff. We own it in a couple portfolios. We've minimized our positions because we prefer Netflix and other areas and communication services like Spotify. But we're obviously happy with the results that we've seen lately and we, we endorse these upgrades. We like that a lot.

[Scott Wapner]

What portfolio is this in, Brian? Wow, look at the headlines now with Sylvana. Hi, Silvana.

[Stephanie Link]

You deserve it.

[Brian Belsky]

Good afternoon to you.

[Stephanie Link]

All right. Well, the Supreme Court has ruled to keep a key part of the Affordable Care Act's preventive health care coverage requirements that affect about 150 million Americans. In a 6, 3 decision, the court decided in favor of the Trump administration, which was defending the law, arguing that members of a panel that recommends preventative care services were legally appointed to their jobs. Three conservative justices dissented. A top Republican senator is proposing an overhaul of the office led by National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard. A new bill introduced by Tom Cotton of Arkansas would slash the workforce of the office of the Director of National intelligence by roughly 60%. And the trial of Brian Coburger, that's the man accused of killing four University of Idaho students, will begin in August. An Idaho judge rejected yesterday requests from Kohberger's lawyers to delay the trial and present evidence suggesting four alternate perpetrators. Kohberger is accused of stabbing four people in an off campus home in 2022. If convicted, prosecutors have said they will seek the death penalty. Halftime report. We'll be right back.

[Brian Belsky]

Foreign.

[Scott Wapner]

Are you still quoting 30 year old movies?

[Stephanie Link]

Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days?

[Scott Wapner]

Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted?

[Brian Belsky]

If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past.

[Scott Wapner]

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[Brian Belsky]

That take credit cards nationwide. And every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back.

[Scott Wapner]

Welcome to the Now It Pays to Discover.

[Brian Belsky]

Learn more at discover.com credit card based.

[Stephanie Link]

On the February 202024 Nelson Report.

[Scott Wapner]

Hey, it's Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile.

[Bryn Talkington]

Now I was looking for fun ways.

[Stephanie Link]

To tell you that Mint's offer of unlimited Premium Wireless for $15 a month is back.

[Scott Wapner]

So I thought it would be fun.

[Stephanie Link]

If we made $15 bills, but it.

[Scott Wapner]

Turns out that's very illegal. So there goes my big idea for the commercial.

[Stephanie Link]

Give it a [e-mail] Switch upfront payment of $45 for a three month plan equivalent to $15 per month required new customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes of networks busy taxes and fees extra cement mobile.com.

[Scott Wapner]

A record setting day that has stocks at their highs. Let's get to Steve Kovach now for more on Tex Big rally with that sector and the Nasdaq both at record highs. Steve yeah, that's right.

[Stephanie Link]

We're doing sector nomics today and tech is the focus now. The sector hit a new high this week and is up 8% so far in June. We're digging in on cybersecurity though. That's of course because of the heightened interest in stocks like Fortnet, Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike after those US strikes on Iran last weekend and the threatened Iranian response.

[Brian Belsky]

The CEO of CrowdStrike, by the way.

[Stephanie Link]

George Kurtz, says he's already seeing an impact. Take a listen.

[Scott Wapner]

First we've seen an increase in denial of service attacks that happened right after the bombings. We've seen increase in website defacements. And really what we're starting to see is some other activities in the pre positioning of wiper malware and those sorts of malware activities which are linked to Iran.

[Stephanie Link]

Now after that we have CrowdStrike up almost 4% since that US attack on Iran's nuclear sites over the weekend. Stock is also up 44% so far this year. Meantime you have Palo Alto Networks which has also seen a pop up more than two and a half percent just in the last few days. And shares of Fortinet up 4% so far this week, about 10% in all of this year. And then The C K ETF, that's the hack ETF from Amplify, it's up more than 3% so far this week.

[Scott Wapner]

Scott. All right, Steve Kovac, thank you very much for that. We talk about these stocks all the time. Which brin you choose to play through the bug etf. Why? Why that versus some of the individual names?

[Stephanie Link]

Well, I think the names rotate but first of all the bug is very focused versus the other ETFs just on cyber. Some of the other ETFs really move outside of that. But in terms of the individual names, you know, you get Zscaler, Fortnite, CrowdStrike and, and CrowdStrike has the top three holdings and it's market cap weighted. So I just think like long term I don't have to walk through and worry about if they have a hack or what they miss a quarter. I can just own that. I feel for a longer period of time than one individual name which may or may not be the winner five years from now. Steph, I think the big five get bigger. We have 4,000 cyber security companies in the world, some the of public and some are private and none of them talk to each other. And we have cybersecurity companies themselves that get attacked. So I think you're going to see massive consolidation. I think cybersecurity is bigger than AI and it's because of AI cybersecurity is going to be bigger. And so I'm playing it through CrowdStrike. Certainly it's the best of the best.

[Scott Wapner]

Consolidation among the big names.

[Stephanie Link]

Yeah, I do, I think the big five get bigger and bigger and they're going to buy the, the other, you know, the other companies, companies around the world, some of them might be small but because they don't all offer 100% to their customers, so they'll buy capabilities and that's what I think you're going to see. CrowdStrike is amazing. Palo Alto has been a laggard and I think it's just a much better value at 11 times price of sales versus 30 times price to sales for CrowdStrike. But I like them both. I like the whole space.

[Scott Wapner]

Everything almost looks a laggard compared to CrowdStrike which is up 47 and a half percent year to date.

[Stephanie Link]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

Although I mean Z scale is up 75 so everything's lagging that you have Palo Alto also.

[Stephanie Link]

I do, but just broadly speaking I.

[Scott Wapner]

Agree with the basket idea. Morgan Stanley projects that cybersecurity spend will surge from 15 billion which was 2021 to 135 billion by 2030.

[Stephanie Link]

So I think they're all well positioned.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, coming up after this break, the self driving race and your money. The committee gearing up to debate whether Tesla or Uber is the better stock to own for the second half of the year. Which one's going to do better over the next six months? We'll debate it next. All right, welcome back. Time for a debate. Tesla versus Uber. The next six months because the first six no contest. Uber's up 51% year to date. Tesla's down 19%. Brent and Brian own both. Kevin only owns Tesla. Stephanie Link only owns Uber, which is going to have the better second half. And why?

[Stephanie Link]

Well, I think, I think Uber obviously because I own it, I mean, but it's actually lagging the past year early. It's, well it's only, it's only up to 29% in the past year. Tesla's actually up 64% in the past year. But I like Uber because it's diversified. They've got ride sharing, they've got food delivery, they've got new products and I think the AV market, it's big. It's big enough for both of them. I mean the total addressable market is going to go from one and a half billion this year to 13 billion by 2030. That's a 32% CAGR. They both can win. But I think that diversification and oh by the way, given the growth trends, 15% gross bookings and 35% EBITDA growth for 26 times that valuation makes more sense to me.

[Scott Wapner]

Is the whole bet on autonomous to answer the question. Because if you just go by what Tesla sales numbers are, that doesn't leave you feeling very upbeat about what the near term future looks like, especially if you take a look at the international sales which can't get out of their own way still.

[Stephanie Link]

Well, Stephanie brought in logic, math and fundamentals.

[Scott Wapner]

What are you bringing in? Robots and self driving and Elon Musk. So I just think both are diversified. It's not an either or story. One's not going to cannibalize the other. I think you should own both in a diversified portfolio. We own Tesla because of the robots and we believe in the full self driving brand. You do own both. As I said, if I can do.

[Stephanie Link]

A total return trade and sell calls against Tesla for the next six months, which I'm in, I feel like the Tesla total return selling calls outperform Ubers. If I have to take away my calls, I'm going to go with step and say Uber.

[Scott Wapner]

OK Belsky?

[Bryn Talkington]

Yes, we own both. What I think is interesting Scott, is that in the fourth quarter obviously with the news that autonomous cars Uber got hit and Tesla went up, some of that was due to what was going on politically as well and now they've kind of flipped flop Uber I think don't discount how important Uber has been to the industrial sector. Industrial has been one of the best, if not the best performing sector year to date as more and more funds and flows go into industrial. So we would say that Tesla's got a catch up trade coming. But from a total return perspective over the next 12 months, we think too that Uber will outperform.

[Scott Wapner]

So if you had to buy one fresh today, it would be Uber.

[Bryn Talkington]

Yes, it would be.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, we'll take a quick break. We'll do finals next.

[Brian Belsky]

Are you following the Halftime Report podcast?

[Stephanie Link]

What are you waiting for? Look for us in your favorite podcasting app. Follow the Halftime Podcast. Now.

[Scott Wapner]

Track this record setting market at 3 o' clock today right into the weekend with Ed Yard, Denny Mira Pandit, Mark Mahaney, Warren Pies, Shannon Sokotia and all of you I hope because who knows what is this market's going to do. We're pretty much highs of the day, barely off of that. Let's do finals. Brent Talking to what you got?

[Stephanie Link]

KKR just broke above the 200 day. They're in big time fundraising mode. I think the stock goes higher.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, we said private equity picking up to financials at a record high. I know, it's like a broken record because it's more than just tech today.

[Bryn Talkington]

Brian Belsky, Lululemon and Lulu Quickly becoming a value Stock Again. Another one of these turnarounds that we think can do very well.

[Scott Wapner]

Quickly becoming a value stock. You've been watching this thing. It's been a value stock for a while.

[Bryn Talkington]

Sure has. 15 times earnings.

[Scott Wapner]

We'll take maybe a value trap stock.

[Bryn Talkington]

We'll see.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. Kevin Simpson Meta don't fight the tape.

[Stephanie Link]

AI powered ads scale.

[Scott Wapner]

I think growth meme beat on real.

[Stephanie Link]

Okay. Rockwell Automation.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, good stuff. I'll see you on the bell. The exchange begins right now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

[Stephanie Link]

All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company, or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftimereportdisclaimer.

[Scott Wapner]

Hey, I'm journalist Sam Sanders.

[Stephanie Link]

I'm poet Saeed Jones. And I'm producer Zach Stafford.

[Scott Wapner]

And we are the hosts of a podcast called Vibecheck.

[Stephanie Link]

On Vibe Check, we talk about everything. News, culture and entertainment.

[Scott Wapner]

And how it all feels. That's right, we talk about any and.

[Stephanie Link]

Everything on our show, from real life issues like grief to music and movie critiques. And that barely scratches the surface. Yes, indeed. And it doesn't stop there. We have got a lot to say, so join our group, chat, come to life, follow and listen to Vibe Check wherever you get your podcasts.