CNBC Halftime Report: "The Reopening Rally" (November 10, 2025)

Episode Overview

On this episode, Scott Wapner and a panel of top investors dissect the market’s sharp rebound following positive developments in Washington regarding the government shutdown. The discussion spans the implications of renewed market liquidity, the fate of high-growth tech and AI stocks, the risks and rewards of ongoing debt-fueled expansions, and a range of single-name stock moves. Other highlights include Warren Buffett’s final Thanksgiving letter, the potential impact of the shutdown ending on airlines, a sports betting scandal in MLB, and trends in crypto and ETF investing.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Rebound and The Reopening Rally

• Theme: Stocks stage a sharp recovery amid optimism over a government funding deal and hopes of increased market liquidity. Tech and AI shares bounce after a rough prior week.
  • Host (Scott Wapner): "The markets cheering that deal in D.C. — we'll discuss what it means for the markets, the AI trade looking to get back on track as well." [00:43]
• NASDAQ Outperforms: NASDAQ up 1.5%, tech leaders rebound after last week's tech selloff.
  • "Nvidia’s up about 4%. Alphabet 2 and a half, you have Meta is obviously higher, and then most of these stocks, Jim, are higher as well." [03:18]
• Stock Recovery: Bitcoin rebounds, gold is higher.

2. Tech & AI Trade — Is the Pullback Over?

• Volatility Context: Last week’s swoon saw $800B in tech market cap vanish (Nvidia, Microsoft, Broadcom, Oracle, Meta, Palantir, Alphabet, Amazon).
• Meta’s Attractiveness:
  • Steve Weiss: "Meta is actually extremely attractive here and I had bought some for a trade… Fundamentals are still extremely strong. These are not the companies that are impacted by the government shutdown." [02:58]
• Buying the Dip:
  • Jim: "In my opinion the fundamentals… are very much intact for the trade. I don't think this is a bubble… If one does recover and rally into year end, it will be Meta." [04:03, 03:30]
  • Discussion around whether the correction was liquidity-driven (Jim) or earnings-driven (Scott, Steve).
• Liquidity vs. Fundamentals Debate:
  • Jim argues the market swoon "has been caused by liquidity issues that stem directly from the government shutdown" (SOFR volatility, Federal Reserve/Treasury moves). [04:03–05:13]
  • Scott counters: Earnings had an impact too, especially with Meta’s and Palantir’s results triggering broader valuation concerns. [05:30]
  • Steve Weiss: Points out market complexity, warns against monocausal explanations. [15:29]

3. AI Spending & The Debt-Fueled Expansion

• New Phase of AI Boom:
  • Amy Raskin: "The first phase of AI was fueled by capital coming from cash flow. Now we're in a phase fueled by debt… All Capex booms end badly. It's just a question of when." [07:30]
  • Cloud companies benefit most—Amazon and Google highlighted.
• Debt Levels and Market Risk:
  • Jim (unconcerned): "We're a long way away from [problems]. When I look at the capex… measured in the trillions versus the amount of debt that has been raised… measured in the tens of billions… it's fine." [10:54]
  • Oracle’s downgrade discussed: Barclays downgrades citing "high and ongoing funding needs." [11:51]
  • Jim again: "I look at the interest rates… 5 to 6%. I'd much rather Oracle finance that with 5 to 6% debt as opposed to equity." [11:18]
  • Seurat Sethi voices caution: Oracle is entering a "negative cash flow situation," needs to execute, unlike its big-tech peers. [14:31]
• Liquidity’s Role in Tech Slides:
  • Jim links Oracle’s price decline to contracting market liquidity, but concedes "it's not all one thing" [14:06–14:28]

4. Single-Stock Moves & Analyst Views

Amazon

• Bill Baruch: "Amazon is a breakout story… A lot of value here, we added to it…it's our number one name." [17:26]
• Amy: Likes Amazon's robotics/AI exposure: "Amazon is better at robotics than Tesla, which might be a controversial statement." [18:30]
• Valuation Debate:
  • Seurat: "It's 26 times forward earnings at this point, which is lower than what it's been historically… you have a company that can outgrow its earnings expectations." [19:54]
  • Amy: "Amazon could turn on their cash flow quickly if they wanted to." [20:19]

Uber

• Bill Baruch: "This is a free cash flow story for us… We're getting cash to work, bought Uber to a 9% weighting." [20:51]

Airlines & Shutdown Impact

• Phil LeBeau: Explains the complexities in restoring normal service after government shutdown ends; points to DOT-mandated flight cancellations impacting travel. [22:31]
• Delta Discussed as Standout:
  • Seurat: "International routes not being affected right now…if things come back to normal, airline is going to optimize the routes that are most profitable." [24:53]
  • Jim: Delta’s strength is monetizing business/first class, "the upper leg of the K is the one that fills the front of the plane." [25:30]
  • Steve: Airfares at the front of the plane remain high—airlines will offset losses with higher prices. [26:19]

5. Warren Buffett’s Final Thanksgiving Letter

• Key Highlights:
  • Becky Quick: Letter marks end of Buffett writing the annual shareholder letter (passing to Greg Abel), but he'll continue Thanksgiving letters.
  • Buffett donates $1.35B in Berkshire shares to family foundations: "My unexpected longevity has unavoidable consequences… I need to step up the pace of gifts."
  • On Berkshire's future: "Berkshire has less chance of a devastating disaster than any business I know… more shareholder-conscious management and board… But our size takes its toll." [32:43]
  • Life Lessons: "Kindness is costless, but also priceless… hard to beat that golden rule as a guide to behavior." [31:49]
  • Becky: Berkshire is now more defensive, less likely to outperform in up markets but safer in downturns. [33:57]
  • Amy: "He's a class act… contrast to a lot of behaviors we’re seeing today… Berkshire is a defensive holding." [34:39]

6. ETF & Thematic Investing Trends

• AI ETFs Rule, but Thematic Investing Broadens:
  • Ryan O'Connor (Global X): "Of $75B AUM, roughly $20B is in our thematic lineup… AI is huge but other areas—data centers, energy, defense tech—are growing." [37:49–38:32]
  • SHIELD defense ETF nets $3B new flows, showing diversification in thematic demand.

7. Crypto & Coinbase

• Crypto as Portfolio Asset:

  • Bill Baruch: "Crypto is becoming a real asset or a diversifier in portfolios… we added Coinbase. Earnings up 400%, strong support at $100K." [39:37]

• Jim Chanos Closes Crypto Short: Caution about shorting high-flying, cult-like assets with "no intrinsic value."

  • "I just think it's very difficult to do it. It's some—it's a cult like Tesla… If you're short, you've lost a lot of money." — Steve Weiss [41:20]

8. MLB Sports Betting Scandal

• Contessa Brewer: Two Cleveland Guardians pitchers indicted for rigging pitches to benefit bettors—complex federal case highlighting risks to baseball’s integrity. [41:56]
  • Prosecutors: "Players telegraphed their pitches to conspirators who then bet and profited…”
  • Both players claim innocence; MLB and team investigating.

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• Jim: "The downturn over the last two weeks has been about liquidity flows, not about fundamentals." [07:01]
• Steve Weiss: "Capex booms end in disaster. The question is when." [10:54]
• Amy: "Almost all Capex booms ends badly. It's just a question of when." [07:30]
• Amy on Amazon vs Tesla: "I think Amazon is better at robotics than Tesla, which might be a controversial statement." [18:30]
• Becky Quick (on Buffett): "Kindness is costless, but also priceless… hard to beat that golden rule as a guide to behavior." [31:49]
• Scott Wapner (host): "The Nasdaq is good for almost 2%. So a nice snapback in those stocks." [44:54]

Notable Timestamps for Major Segments

• Markets & Tech Rally: 00:43–04:03
• Liquidity vs Fundamentals Debate: 04:03–07:01
• AI & Debt Risks: 07:30–11:51
• Oracle Debt & Downgrade: 11:51–15:29
• Amazon/Uber/Single Stocks: 17:26–20:51
• Airlines & Shutdown: 22:31–26:19
• Buffett’s Letter & Berkshire: 28:12–35:20
• ETF/Sector Flows: 37:16–38:53
• Crypto Bounce & Coinbase Call: 39:37–41:39
• MLB Betting Scandal: 41:56–43:42

Final Trades (44:05–44:54)

• Seurat Sethi: Morgan Stanley — "Capital markets opening up, wealth management business. You want to stay with this one?"
• Jim: Cisco Systems — "Momentum has been strong… fundamentals justify it."
• Amy: Alumina — "Had a big pop, but I think there's more to go."
• Steve Weiss: FTA — "Corrected about 15%. Nothing fundamental. Good opportunity to pick some up."

Tone & Style

• Lively, competitive, and at times humorous; panelists debate confidently but respectfully, reflecting the urgency and dynamism of live market action.
• The show maintains a mixture of technical expertise and accessible analysis for a broad investing audience.

This summary curates all major topics, debates, and memorable moments from the episode—providing a comprehensive, time-stamped road map for listeners or anyone seeking a written playbook of the day’s market discussion.