Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: The Resilient Bull Run 9/11/25
Date: September 11, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Panelists: Josh Brown, Joe Terranova, Surat Set, Jim Lebenthal
Special Guest: Al Michaels

Overview

This episode centers on the record-setting rally in stocks, the drivers of the resilient bull market, and how current economic and policy developments are shaping investor strategies. The conversation dives into expectations for Fed rate cuts, rotation across sectors, the persistent power of AI, and notable moves in individual stocks. Lively banter is balanced by analysis, and the hour features several memorable exchanges, investing insights, and a candid sports-meets-market conversation with broadcasting legend Al Michaels.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of the Market: A Bullish Surge

• Record Highs Across the Board ([01:02-01:54])
  • Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq hitting all-time highs at noon.
  • 10-year Treasury yield at its lowest since April 7th, fueling optimism.
  • Discussion centers on whether rate cuts are fully priced in.

2. Rate Cuts: Speculation and Impact

• Labor Market Trumps Inflation Data ([01:54-03:27])

  • Joe Terranova: Markets more sensitive to labor stats than CPI today.
  • "Now we're talking about potentially 50 basis points as a cut…not just a one-time rate cut cycle." (Joe, [01:54])
  • The “Fin5”: Major banks (BofA, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Citi) all touching 52-week highs.

• The 50 Basis Point Debate ([03:27-06:01])

  • Josh Brown: "This is a rate cut rally. There’s no question about it today." ([04:45])
  • Discussion on the odds and market implications of 25 vs 50 bps cuts.
  • Surat Set: "You do it for 50 because the numbers are now showing that you need to do it and the market is now discounting the 50." ([05:19])
  • Surge in financials tied partly to optimism around IPO/M&A activity, wealth management, and consumer health.

3. Portfolio Moves & Market Breadth

• Raising Cash—Right or Wrong? ([06:01-08:36])

  • Jim Lebenthal admits trimming winners and raising 10% cash was too cautious given the persistent rally.
  • "I was wrong." (Jim, [07:05])
  • Notes possibility of "sell the news" if expectations for 50bps get fully priced in.

• Economic Strength and K-shaped Recovery ([07:23-08:36])

  • GDP robust at 3.1-3.5% growth.
  • Strong anecdotal evidence (full steakhouses, busy air travel) reflects economic resilience.

4. Market Outlook: 2025 and Beyond

• Catalysts for the Rally & AI Impact ([08:48-11:23])

  • Morgan Stanley: Hard to derail "strengthening AI visibility into 2026."
  • Joe Terranova: Focus beginning to shift toward 2026 and midterm election volatility.
  • "The tailwind from the investment thesis surrounding artificial intelligence...that's a secular story." (Joe, [10:42])

• Global Confirmation ([12:04-14:43])

  • Josh Brown: Global stock market breakouts and global AI CapEx reinforce U.S. trends.
  • "I think there's room to kind of keep both thoughts in your mind at the same time." (Josh, [13:58])
  • Warns policy mistakes remain the biggest risk.

5. Stock & Sector Spotlights

• Semiconductors at Record Highs ([14:43-15:12])

  • SMH, Micron, Lam Research, KLA all highlighted for all-time or 52-week highs.
  • Joe: "Applied Material really hasn't participated as much as Lam Research and KLA." ([14:53])

• Apple & Amazon: Staples of Tech ([15:01-17:12])

  • Apple downgraded; awaiting major AI moves.
    • Surat: "It's like a consumer staple in the tech sector and it will do fine. And you just kind of like as Kramer says, you don't trade it, you just own it." ([15:35])
  • Amazon picked as top pick by Morgan Stanley; panel bullish due to diverse business lines.

6. Airlines and Consumer Health

• Delta Airlines: Headwinds in Main Cabin ([17:12-21:10])
  • Phil LeBeau reports main cabin revenue still negative; stock down.
  • Jim Lebenthal: "Sometimes the market just plainly gets it wrong...the money is made is the front of the cabin." ([18:43])
  • Scott pushes back—can't ignore the economy/main cabin entirely.

7. Buybacks and IPOs

• Resurgent Buyback Trend ([21:10-22:57])
  • Jim: "I love when companies buy back so many shares they shrink the share count...that makes for a pretty good pop in earnings per share." ([22:33])
• IPO Activity Heats Up ([22:57-24:31])
  • Klarna IPO discussed; Josh skeptical on new issues: "There are so many other ways…PayPal, Affirm…it's not crazy novel." ([23:10])
  • Banks benefit as capital markets open up.

8. Stock Trades & Technicals

• New Positions & Debates ([26:23-31:47])

  • Jim buys back into On Holding, citing market share gain.
  • Josh: Cautious due to technical downtrend, favoring careful entry.

• Stock and Sector Debates

  • Delta, banks, and tech megacaps discussed for valuation and future growth risks.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I was wrong.”—Jim Lebenthal on raising too much cash ([07:05])
• “This is a rate cut rally. There’s no question about it today.”—Josh Brown ([04:45])
• On Apple: “You just own it.”—Surat Set ([15:35])
• “The money is made in the front of the cabin.”—Jim Lebenthal on airlines ([18:43])
• “You run out of catalysts…in 2026. It’s also a midterm election year...Markets don’t like midterm election years.”—Joe Terranova ([09:21])
• On IPOs: “It’s not crazy novel.”—Josh Brown ([23:10])

Special Guest: Al Michaels ([35:23-42:17])

NFL Season & Investment Wisdom

• Al Michaels discusses upcoming Thursday Night Football, shares personal investing stories, and banters with Josh Brown about stock picks.
• Josh’s Tip for Al: Home Depot (HD) for a “monster breakout,” recommending Al “pick up a round block of a thousand shares.” ([38:12])
• Al’s Financial Wisdom: Still holding Home Depot since “Arthur Blank was running the company,” and laughs about holding FAS (leveraged financial ETF) for 15 years.
• Discussion on wild growth in NFL team valuations and sports as investment.

Trending News and Moves

• Robinhood Launches Short Selling ([42:17-43:47])

  • Joe: A catalyst for Robinhood, but “not my strategy…I don’t believe in shorting stocks.”
  • Panel discusses the risks/rewards for new retail investors.

• Final Trades ([44:32-45:16])

  • Josh: Staying long Rocket (52-week high).
  • Jim & Surat: Double down on Delta’s management/execution.
  • Surat: Likes TECK merger.
  • Joe: Watching Tesla—notes high short interest.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Market Open & Rate Cut Debate: [01:02-06:01]
• Portfolio Moves & Market Catalysts: [06:01-09:21]
• AI & 2026 Market Outlook: [10:14-14:43]
• Semis, Apple, Amazon: [14:43-17:12]
• Delta & Airlines Debate: [17:12-21:10]
• Buybacks & IPO Discussion: [21:10-24:31]
• On Holdings Trade Debate: [26:23-31:47]
• Al Michaels Segment: [35:23-42:17]
• Robinhood Shorting Feature: [42:17-43:47]
• Final Trades: [44:32-45:16]

Conclusion

This episode showcases a market running on positive earnings, rate cut anticipation, and secular trends like AI, but the panel keeps a wary eye on future catalysts and potential corrections. The interplay between market data, sector rotations, and investment debates brings the bull run narrative vividly to life, with humor and insight—a hallmark of the Halftime Report.

For further analysis, direct quotes, and actionable ideas, see segment timestamps above.