CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: The Return of Volatility?
Date: January 13, 2026
Host: Scott Wapner
Panel: Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Jim Leventhal, Josh Brown

Episode Theme & Purpose

Main Theme:
This episode centers on "the return of volatility" in U.S. markets, examining what's driving recent market jitters—ranging from Fed Chair Powell’s political troubles, investor expectations for rate cuts, shifts in sector leadership, and the start of earnings season. The panel discusses how these factors are affecting asset allocation, investment strategy, and specific stock and sector calls as 2026 unfolds.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Greatest Investing Environment… Or The Most Volatile Yet?

• Backdrop: The episode begins with optimism about U.S. markets, highlighting recent double-digit S&P gains and strong economic growth, yet flags signs of increased volatility.
• Rick Rieder’s Bullishness: BlackRock’s Rick Rieder is quoted calling this "the greatest investment environment," but acknowledges, along with the panel, that volatility is rising.
• Stephanie Link:
  • "We just had three straight years of double digit growth in The S and P...The momentum is still there. It’s not going away... Volatility increases. Use it to your advantage and buy on debt." [02:32-03:51]
• Josh Brown:
  • "Greatest might be further than I would go, but... there’s tons of M&A... IPOs are back... The real question is, are we already pricing in how good it is?" [04:02-05:48]
• The consensus: The environment is positive, but high valuations and stretched sentiment are concerning. Volatility is expected—and should be used opportunistically.

2. The Fed, Rate Cut Expectations, and Powell’s Political Peril

• Volatility Triggers: Panelists address the political drama involving Fed Chair Powell and its effect on market psychology.
• Jim Leventhal:
  • "I don’t think we need rate cuts... The market can fly without rate cuts because if we don’t get them, it’s for the right reasons: the economy is growing." [07:21-08:30]
  • On Powell controversy: “In the long run, this does make us look like an emerging market economy... Right now, the market’s focused on the short term: economic growth, profit growth, low unemployment, stimulus, potentially tariff rebates." [08:54-09:46]
• Stephanie Link:
  • "You’re going to have a more dovish Fed... I just want them to get rates right." [10:03-10:11]

3. Market Leadership, Sector Rotation, and Asset Allocation

• Joe Terranova:
  • "2025 was a paradigm shift... You had the opportunity to invest in what was under appreciated... That opportunity creates a much healthier environment as it relates to volatility." [11:11-11:59]
  • Volatility so far indicates repositioning, not capital exit—a "healthy" kind of turbulence.
• Stephanie Link on Housing:
  • Emphasizes housing’s importance: "There’s a correlation between housing and autos...if we got that, we’re going to grow even more." [12:43-13:18]
• On Energy:
  • All recognize Energy as a contrarian play, with multiple panelists buying into the sector as it breaks higher (e.g., Chevron, ExxonMobil, Oil Services ETF/OIH).
  • "I want to have more commodity exposure, not less... Chevron is the best of the best." – Stephanie Link [30:40-31:26]
  • "These stocks were completely left out of the bull market... but things are changing." – Josh Brown [32:02-33:09]
  • "Even a mild uptick... that’s going to lead to a little bit of a short squeeze." – Joe Terranova [34:11-34:27]

4. Credit Cards and Political Risks

• Visa & MasterCard Selloff:
  • Trump and Elizabeth Warren’s alignment on capping credit card rates spooks investors.
  • "That conversation lends credibility to the people who think something will happen here... but what are the second and third order effects of disruption in the financial system?" – Josh Brown [15:51-17:43]
• Joe Terranova:
  • "If you react here and give up something that’s been a winning trade... I think that’s the wrong type of behavior." [19:06-19:55]
• Panelists generally advise against knee-jerk selling on policy headlines, suggesting these stocks (and Capital One, per Stephanie Link) may see overreaction.

5. Tech: Memory Chip Mania, AI, and the China Threat Debate

• Micron Mania:
  • Rick Rieder warns of "ridiculous" moves in memory/chip stocks—Micron up 173% in six months.
  • "If I had discretion, would I trim some here? Yes. If I didn’t own it, would I buy here? No. It’s extremely extended." – Joe Terranova [21:12-22:06]
• Software’s Pains:
  • Software stocks like Adobe have disappointed, with fears of AI disintermediation.
  • "This is a stock that... has not been disintermediated. The operational and financial results have been terrific." – Jim Leventhal [23:13-25:15] (sparring with Wapner and referencing Brad Gerstner’s comments)
• China’s AI Ambitions:
  • Microsoft’s Brad Smith warns Chinese AI companies might outpace U.S. rivals.
  • Stephanie Link: "I think they can all coexist... we have amazing companies doing amazing things." [26:34-26:42]
  • Jim Leventhal: "There’s a real threat here from China... but I don’t think we should dismiss this." [27:09-27:39]
  • Joe Terranova: "I think the technology is inferior at best... Deep Seek in video gives you the ability..." [27:39-28:12]

6. International Allocations

• Stephanie Link:
  • Has rotated from India to Brazil: "Brazil is much cheaper... fiscal and monetary policies are easing... focus on manufacturing, mining and ag." [43:21-44:05]
• Josh Brown:
  • "Absolutely, this [international outperformance] could go on for two years, three years, four years... we've seen it before." [44:44-45:45]

7. Materials & Commodities

• Josh Brown’s Best Stocks:
  • Featured: Martin Marietta (MLM), Vulcan Materials (VMC), CRH.
  • "These stocks are not heavily owned... both charts look incredible... still haven’t been discovered." [37:50-39:06]
• On Gold, Silver, Copper:
  • Joe Terranova: "Silver is the trade right now... more fundamental validity than gold." [40:40-41:05]
  • Stephanie Link: "I prefer copper." [40:25-40:33]

Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• Stephanie Link: "Productivity numbers like this—4.9%—we haven’t seen in decades... The productivity number is actually pretty good for inflation expectations." [02:32-03:51]
• Josh Brown: "Delta is making more money in the front of the cabin than the entirety of the main cabin... In the end, revenues are going up. Profit margins will be 14, 15% this year for the S&P." [04:02-05:48]
• Jim Leventhal: "I don’t think we need rate cuts... If we don’t get them, it’s for the right reasons. It’s because the economy’s growing." [07:21-08:30]
• Josh Brown: "The main thing is not to react to the first tweet." [15:51-17:43]
• Joe Terranova: “If I had discretion, would I trim Micron here? Yes. If I didn’t own it, would I buy? No.” [21:12-22:06]
• Stephanie Link: "Housing is only 10% of GDP, but when you buy a home, you buy stuff inside and outside... That’s why there’s a real big correlation between housing and autos." [12:43-13:05]
• Jim Leventhal: "Over the last five years, ExxonMobil’s beta has been almost 0.5—meaning it’s had half the risk of the S&P 500. However, annualized return has been more than double that of the S&P 500. That’s the holy grail.” [34:27-34:49]
• Josh Brown: "These [materials] stocks are not heavily owned... They really haven’t been discovered yet." [37:50-39:06]
• Stephanie Link on Brazil vs. India:
  • "Brazil: fiscal and monetary policies are easing... focus on manufacturing, mining, agricultural. Top 10 positions are financials." [43:21-44:05]
• Joe Terranova: "Silver actually has more fundamental validity in its ownership than gold does." [40:40-41:05]
• Josh Brown: "I believe in diversified portfolios." [45:53-46:00]

Timestamps of Key Segments

• Opening market environment, Rick Rieder’s take: 02:04-05:48
• Fed & Powell’s political situation, rate cuts debate: 06:41-10:11
• Volatility, asset allocation themes: 11:09-13:22
• Housing’s importance: 12:43-13:18
• Energy sector momentum: 30:40-34:49
• Credit card rates & policy risk: 15:51-19:55
• Tech: Chips & software rotation: 21:12-25:33
• China’s AI threat: 26:27-28:26
• Materials sector picks: 37:50-40:07
• International investing, Brazil/India rotation: 43:20-44:19

Final Trades

• Josh Brown: Reiterates bullishness on ExxonMobil—"Great blue chip for 2026." [46:50]
• Jim Leventhal: Delta (DAL) [47:00]
• Stephanie Link: Capital One—calls yesterday’s selloff "such an overreaction. I buy it with two hands, two fists." [47:15]
• Joe Terranova: Technical support holding up; still bullish market trend. [47:22]

Episode Takeaways

• Volatility Is Here: Panel sees more pronounced swings ahead but emphasizes that not all volatility is capital-destructive; some of it presents opportunity.
• Don’t Overreact to Political Noise: Sudden market moves (e.g., in credit cards, Fed debate) may be overdone. The longer-term economic fundamentals are healthy.
• Energy and Materials in Focus: After years of neglect, these sectors are now favored for strong return/risk and contrarian alpha.
• International Diversification: With non-U.S. markets cheap and policies easing, allocation beyond the U.S. is increasingly in vogue.
• Watch for Rotation: Panelists agree that momentum is shifting between sectors; staying nimble and diversified is key.

End of Summary