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Halftime Report
The Road Ahead for Stocks 5/30/25
00:55:48
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate the road ahead for stocks as we close out the best month for the market since November 2023. Plus, we go live to Morgan Brennan’s interview with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon. And later, Scott Wapner brings you the latest from his interview with Third Point’s Dan Loeb. Mad Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Edward Jones
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- [00:32]
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- [01:00]
Scott Wapner
I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Okay, Carl, thank you very much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. On this Friday front and center this hour, the summer setup for stocks. We will discuss that with the investment committee today. Also, big heads up. Any minute now, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon is going to be on stage out in California with our own Morgan Brennan that at the Reagan National Economic Forum. It's at the Reagan Library. We're going to take some of that conversation live and see what Mr. Dimon has to say about the current environment in the markets. We'll take you there as soon as we see them. Our investment committee, I said they're here too. Josh Brown, Stephanie Link, Jim Laventhal and Kevin Simpson, we'll take you to the markets. You just heard Sarah say best month since November of 23. Nasdaq's pacing for its best month since November of 23 as well to get PT in line with expectations. The president accusing China of violating the trade agreement the summer set up for stocks. That's really what I want to focus on today. And Steph, you get the first crack the summer set up for stocks.
- [02:12]
Josh Brown
Looks what I think we could be sideways for a little while because we just rallied 18% from the April lows. But I think it'll be short lived and a lot of it is because the economy continues to chug along. Just before the show, the Atlanta Fed tracker came out at 3.8%. That is a huge number. I'm not saying that we're actually growing that, but that has everything to do with better income numbers, better spending numbers and a little bit lower inflation data today. But also the weekly jobless claims and the labor market in general remains very strong. So the economy is chugging along. That has led to better than expected earnings at 12%. I think you're going to do 8 to 9% in total for the full year. And then there's $7 trillion of cash on the sideline. And while retail were they were buyers from the April lows institutions were not. And so I do think you're going to see a catch up because I think you're going to see a lot of people, I bet a lot of people are behind their benchmarks year to date.
- [03:11]
Scott Wapner
Josh Brown, fill in the blank. The summer setup looks what.
- [03:17]
Stephanie Link
So I would lean on the technicals and as bad as everything looked at the lows, obviously the biggest comeback has been in the stocks that have gotten us here over the last, I don't know, eight or nine years. Now the Mag seven names I think is the most interesting place to start. Understand that at the very bottom of the market an equal weight index of the MAG7 was negative 30%. If you take that same equal weighting of the MAG7, the most important stocks to the index, they're now 8% below all time highs. So they're not quite all the way back but you know, close enough for horseshoes and hand grenades as they say. And then if you look at the overall market and you think about the internals there's there, it's all over the place. The top three sectors with the most constituents currently at at four week lows, it's exactly what you would think. It's materials and energy literally the worst names. And when you look at where the strength is, it's exactly where you would want it. If the narrative is what Stephanie just said, the economy keeps chugging along. 87% of technology stocks in the S and P are above their 50 day. That's the best sector. Industrials is right behind it. 86% of those names are above their 50 day and then financials 81%. So if, if I didn't have that data and you said Josh, which sectors do you want to see with the most stocks in an uptrend? Those are the three I would give you and that's exactly what we have. Last thing, within the overall s and P, 568% of constituents, more than two thirds are above their 50 day moving average and about half are above the 200 day. So we're back at the old highs, stalling out a little bit. Goldilocks inflation number this morning. Unemployment is okay. It's not, you know, it's not great, but it's not bad. And it kind of makes sense that the market's taking a little bit of a breather here and allowing some of these trade headlines to cool us off. Big picture, though, I think Stephanie is exactly right. This is a pretty good setup for, let's hope, a less eventful summer than the way the spring has gone.
- [05:35]
Scott Wapner
I'm going to remind everybody that we are waiting for Jamie Dimon and Morgan Brennan out in California. Looks like they're getting a little bit closer to that. And as soon as we see those two on the stage, we're going to go there and take some of those remarks live. I will send it to Jim Leventhal for his view. We are feeling better. We've obviously rallied a lot. Best month since November of 23 for stocks. We've if not become fully desensitized to trade headlines. We seem to be reacting to them better. Chris Harvey, Wells Fargo Today he says the tariff bark worse than bite, constructive second half for stocks. That's his outlook. Jim, your thoughts on that. And I may have to grab it from you back here if we see the events unfolding in California.
- [06:20]
Jim Laventhal
Understood. Stephanie and Josh just listed some positives. I'm going to come at it from a different angle, the opposite, which is that the bark, the tariff bark hasn't shown up. Remember all the bad things that just eight weeks ago we were talking about how the shelves were going to be bare in stores, how layoffs were going to happen? This just simply hasn't come to pass. So when we talk about desensitized to trade news, it's because we understand that there is a potential path forward, a likely path forward in which trade deals are realized. Those egregious tariffs that were announced on April 2, come in quite a bit and that they're offset by the tax bill.
- [06:55]
Scott Wapner
Okay, I'm going to take it from you because the conversation is beginning at the Reagan Library. We'll go there.
- [07:00]
Morgan Brennan
Privilege to be sitting down with you, Jamie. There's a lot to get to in this conversation. So I figured we'd start small and then I would ask you a really just a really basic, straightforward question. And that is what's your biggest worry right now?
- [07:15]
Jamie Dimon
So first of all, thrilled to be here. I'm glad you're doing this. I hope we may join the defense forum you guys do every year, too. And look the way I look at it, the big picture is the tectonic plates are shifting. We got to get our heads wrapped around that. Those tectonic plates are the geopolitics with these terrible wars, terrible proxy terrorist activity around the world, North Korea, the potential proliferation of nuclear weapons over time, which is the greatest threat to mankind. And then you have another. The other tectonic shift is the global economy. So the global military umbrella of America. And then the global economy. Trade is a part. You know, the other parts are, do people want to partner with you? Do you have your alliances? Do you have investment agreements and all those various things, and they're changing. And our debt, which you just heard a bunch of folks talk about eloquently, it's large. And it's not just us. We added $10 trillion in five years. You had Reagan up there talking about deficits. The debt to GDP was 35% and the deficit was 3.5%. Today it's 100% debt to GDP net and a deficit of almost 7%. Highest peacetime ever. And when the CBO does their numbers, which I don't really trust, by the way, they should do the stress test, like, what happens if we go into recession? That 7% will be 10%. And so we have problems, and we gotta deal with them. And then the biggest one underlying both, that is the enemy within. I'm not as worried about China. China is a potential adversary. They're doing a lot of things well. They have a lot of problems. What I really worry about is us. Can we get our own act together, our own values, our own capability, our own management. What you heard today on stage was the amount of mismanagement is extraordinary. By state, by city, for pensions, for. And that stuff is going to kill us. And I always get asked this question, are we going to be the reserve currency? No. If we are not the preeminent military and the preeminent economy in 40 years, we will not be the reserve currency. That's a fact. Just read history. I think we will be. Warren Buffett here would tell you we're enormously resilient. I agree with that. I think this time is different. This time we have to get our act together, and we have to do it very quickly.
- [09:30]
Morgan Brennan
That was a big answer. There's a lot to dig into there. The takeaway is geopolitics.
- [09:34]
Jamie Dimon
I have a great quote for the first thing, too. Someone said, the government spends like a drunken sailor. And someone else said, no, a drunken sailor spends his own money. I forgot who said that one.
- [09:46]
Morgan Brennan
So you're talking about a total realignment of the global order. We're talking about a restructuring and simultaneous reassurgent of American hegemony in the middle of all this huge gamble afoot right now with some of the policies that are, that are coming out and how they're taking shape. What does it take for it to pay off?
- [10:03]
Jamie Dimon
You know, the. I mean, I just. A list of stuff. Okay. We have to acknowledge the grievances that put us in this position to start with, and they're real. Okay. Immigration, what the hell were we doing? You know, the bomb. 20% of our population, you know, their wages didn't go up for 20 years. They're dying seven years younger. You know, when administrations, you know, the Biden administration is giving all this money to EVs and cars and wasting a lot of money on green stuff, which isn't going to work and all that. Do you think people in rural cities, do you think people in inner cities thought they were getting anything? Do you think that those people think that the American government is fair and competent and that this was in their best interest? Their schools don't work, they're not getting the skills they need. And you heard that just now. So we've got to acknowledge. And I also call it blue tape because, you know, Republicans, you generally don't like red tape. You understand the devastation of it. But, you know, most Democrats, they love it, they want more of it, and they want to make it so confusing, you can't even meet the rules, so you get punished and fined afterwards. And so, you know, we. And you have it in permitting. And, you know, I call the government the leviathan that's too weak, can't get stuff done and too strong. It imposes things on the American public that they're getting sick of, and they should be getting sick of it. And acknowledge that, celebrate our virtues, freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of enterprise, equal opportunity, family, God, country. And you can acknowledge the flaws that we have, which are extraordinary, we did to the black population for years. Don't denigrate the great things of this country, because those are two different things. If you have in any team, if you put a team on the field and the team's torn apart, they're going to lose. And that's kind of us right now. You know, we're not a team anymore. And we don't collaborate, we don't talk that much to each other, deal with our policies, and this is the enemy within. We've got to fix our permitting, our regulations, our immigration, our taxation. Which I think they're on their way. We have to fix our inner city schools, our health care system. If we fix those things, we can grow 3% a year and all these problems will disappear. But the most important is maintain those military alliances. Spend whatever you got to spend to have the strongest military in the world and keep. And I think the goal, I'm hoping the goal of the Trump administration is this, keep the Western military alliances together. If the world cannot rely on America's military umbrella, we may have paid too much. We have not done it. If the world can't rely on it, they are going to be looking for alternatives. There's only one other real alternative out there. Or gain a nuclear weapon and then maintain and expand and grow our economic alliance. We have tons of treaties, economic treaties. We do a terrible job in development finance, but, you know, expand that. The goal, like, you know, beating up Europe, the goal should be help Europe get stronger. We know what their problems are. Keep them closer. You know, do the trade agreements, the investment agreements, they'll keep the Western world together. Those two things will keep the world safe and free for democracy. If we don't do those things, the world is not safe and free for democracy. And so that's what we have to do. And people know what they are. We've all written about it. We just have failed to actually do it.
- [13:13]
Morgan Brennan
So tariffs are obviously in the mix right now. But we also know that a number of countries, the game plan here is to get to trade deals. How do you think that shakes out? Do you think this ultimately, maybe looking to the end of this year or the end of this term for this president, that we actually end up in closer alliances with some of our trading partners than we have.
- [13:36]
Jamie Dimon
We did a little bit of too much everything everywhere, all at once. So it's hard to step back from that and finish. I think the best we can hope for, and we should hope for, and I think I see them doing this, which is to Finish. Maybe there's 15 important ones finish them. They'll be agreements in principle. They will not be trade agreements, but agreements in principle. At least give you a framework to get things done. And hopefully they could do some in July, August, September, October, November. I would engage with China. You know, I just got back from China last week. They're not scared, folks. There's notion they're going to come about in America. I wouldn't count on that. You know, and when they have a problem, they put 100,000 engineers on it. And they've been preparing for this for years. So. But we should engage. And when we do these trade agreements, the most important part is not, you know, TV making TVs or, or making furniture or T shirts or sneakers. It should be the stuff that relates to national security. Okay? That's rare earths, medical, pharmaceutical ingredients, penicillin. And it's things which relate. Closely relate to national security. Maybe AI narrowly done the chips you hear reading about. And then things which I think are very unfair trade where they might be using merciless behavior to dominate global industries. That is the stuff of war, by the way. If you read all history, that is what started it. And that might be cars, batteries, solar panels, stuff like that that we should do with our allies. It's not going to do America a great job if we come and hold it off. But we don't stop them beggaring thy neighbor or beggaring Europe. So we have to be very. We should be doing some of that with our allies.
- [15:18]
Morgan Brennan
What you're getting at is, and our.
- [15:20]
Jamie Dimon
Allies need our help, by the way. They know they need to do some of these things and someone won't be able to do it without us.
- [15:24]
Morgan Brennan
There's this expanding intersection between industrial policy in this country and national security which sort of gets at what you're talking about with some of these. And it's spanning the last couple of administrations. Everybody devils in the details in terms of how the policies shake out across administrations. But I guess to that point. Do we need to rethink what constitutes national security?
- [15:47]
Jamie Dimon
I wouldn't rethink it. We know what constitutes national security. We need, you know, I was saying we shouldn't be stockpiling bitcoin. We should be stockpiling guns, bullets, tanks, planes, drones, you know, rare earths. We know we need to do this is not a mystery.
- [16:01]
Morgan Brennan
Did you say stockpiling bitcoin?
- [16:03]
Jamie Dimon
I said we shouldn't be stockpiling bitcoin.
- [16:05]
Morgan Brennan
Oh, we shouldn't be.
- [16:06]
Jamie Dimon
We should be stockpiling bullets, okay? Like, you know, the military guys tell you that, you know, if there's a war in the South China Sea, we have missiles for seven days, okay? Come on. I mean, we can't say that with a straight face and think that's okay. So we know what to do. We just got to now go about doing it. Get the people together, roll up our sleeves, have the debates. Do some privately, do some publicly. JB Moore is going to publish a. We call it the Defense Action Form. Something that shows we don't leave excess surplus production capability for missiles or bullets or Bombs. We don't have a military that can flexibly move money from. You see how quickly the software and hardware they need changes. So the military can't have a 30 year program. They've got to be able to cancel that drone program, build up that drone program, hire this person, do the software. We have to allow them to do multi year budgeting. We essentially don't. The military tells me it costs them $50 billion a year and we have to spend more. I mean, so I can go on and on and on. We're going to lay out all these things and hopefully help, you know, just get going there. I think they know, by the way, I think all of us in this room know about this. It's just now we have to do it.
- [17:11]
Morgan Brennan
When you talk about spending more, a lot of focus on the.
- [17:13]
Jamie Dimon
And I'll add one of the things that is important. I know, I mean, Jason, you've done, I don't know if he's in the room, has done a great job getting this one big bill through the American people. Okay. You know, they know that when they see money going to Washington D.C. and you could be a Democrat or Republican, my most liberal elite Democrats, I always ask them, do you personally believe that sending another trillion dollars down to D.C. is going to make the country better? Do you think it's going to be used for good stuff or is it just going to go to the interest groups? But my criticism, and they don't, by the way, almost no one believes that. My criticism is there are 13,000 lobbying groups in D.C. there's only like 10 or 12 bank ones, by the way. People think banks are big. We're not actually that big. Now you have private equities, bigger stuff. And yes, we absolutely should be. I don't know if Gary's here taxing carried interest and all that, but nor should we allow much salt deductions, even though it cost me a lot of money. But those groups are so selfish. Cotton, corn, sugar. And when they go to dc, they're fighting for interest groups, unions, teachers. And it's really damaging our country. So you need leadership like a Ronald Reagan type. They have to explain to the American public why you have to sacrifice your own personal interest. And if you do, by the way, and we can grow 3%, you'll still be far better off. So to me it's okay to sacrifice a little bit and you know, to get all these groups and all these groups, you know, a lot of CEOs, they don't even know what their people are asking for in D.C. and there are people going to see people like Gary Cohen every day begging for a little special thing here. A special thing here, why this should not be discontinued. The government should get rid of all that crap. The American business community doesn't need any special tax breaks at all. They should have rules of the road, good regulations, and let the world compete. And so there's a lot to do. We know what to do. It has been done before. Just going to be hard.
- [19:08]
Morgan Brennan
So how do you see, I guess, what is your takeaway then, on this tax bill as it makes its way through Congress right now? Because on the one hand, looks like it increases the debt load. On the other hand, there are stimulative aspects to it as well.
- [19:20]
Jamie Dimon
Yeah. So our debt to GDP is 100%. It's going to grow to about 115% over the next 10 years or something like that. Then it's a hockey stick. And the hockey stick is Medicare and Medicaid, maybe a little bit of Social Security. So we see that train coming down the tracks, we know how bad it is. But my view is get the tax bill done. You heard the folks on stage, Certainty, business growth, and then focus on other things that grow the economy. Permitting, red tape, reform, all the stuff like that. Education, skills, which are all doable. There are a lot of places that do quite a good job at this. Read our towns. Jim Fallows writes for Atlantic. He's got this book, Art Towns. You go to Omaha and St. Louis and Bozeman and Austin, and they're innovating, they're growing, they're collaborating. Small D works. It's big D that's failed. And I put California in the big D state, the big D category too, by the way. And so we know what things to do and we just got to get people to do them. And it works locally. There are schools locally that do a great job training kids in cyber. A teller can make 45 or $50,000 a year with full medical, dental, Pilates, massages. We take care of our people and then the jobs go up and we have to stop denigrating jobs. And I don't know if Paul Ryan's in the room. I would double the earned income tax credit. I would take that individual who's making $14,000 a year and they now get a tax credit if they have two children of 6,000. If they have no children, they get 600. I would give them 12,000. Whether or not they have children. That money costs about $60 billion, would go directly into their communities. Directly to help their families, directly to help their homes. And I would pay for that by getting rid of carried interest, you know, like take it from those rich, you know, and so I, you know, and if we don't do these things, we're going to continue to have a problem. And I think that'll grow the economy, too. There's no question they would spend the money. And it has the virtue of bringing people into the workforce, people who work less recidivism, less crime, more household formation, less depression, less suicide. And that first rung in the ladder leads to the second rung and pride. And we have to get back to that, not denigrate any job. All jobs are good.
- [21:34]
Morgan Brennan
I want to go back to this notion of journalism. We have our place. I want to go back to this idea, this notion of government efficiency and cost cutting and tackling spending by the government. Today's Elon Musk's last day working with the government. Is Doge and the efforts of Doge at risk here.
- [21:57]
Jamie Dimon
In my, you know, when they started that. Should the government try to be more efficient? Of course they should. Should the people doing that follow the law? Well, of course they should. You know, so people make Doge, not Jo's. So, you know, and then I think Ronald Reagan had an effort like Doge, and Bill Clinton actually did have a surplus and did cut a lot of stuff. Absolutely. But I. But my view, you know, running a big company, if I set up a group at the top and then I tell you, oh, be more efficient, that doesn't work particularly well. If I meet you each individually, I ask you who your CFO is, who you, this is who you, that is, come back, report to me what you're doing, your head count, that'll work. And so, yeah, they should do it. But that's what the OMB supposedly is for. And so I would embed it in every department. Chris, thank you for being here. You have 40 departments. I mean, I don't even know. I would. Every department that takes money from the American people should publish a short, understandable annual report at the end of the year. You gave me so much billions I told you I was going to do. And here's what I did, every one of them. And these programs never die. You know, there's death, taxes, and the thing that never dies, which is a government program. So, yeah, we need to be more efficient. And the government has to demonstrate its competency. If government doesn't demonstrate its competency, the underpinning of being a civil citizen doesn't work. They think we're stealing their money going.
- [23:19]
Morgan Brennan
Back to the Reagan years. You think bond vigilantes are back?
- [23:22]
Jamie Dimon
Yeah. These are very large numbers. You've seen it a little bit. You had the crack in the bond market in Covid a little bit. The government did the right stuff. Then they massively overdid both spending and QE. We borrowed and spent $10 trillion from 2020 to today. Okay, that and you heard the numbers before. We also bought 4 trillion of your securities on top of the 4 trillion we bought in the first go round. Those numbers are true globally. Not quite as big as ours, but The QE of us was 8 trillion. The QE of the rest of the world is another 8 trillion or something like that. You're talking about huge sums of money. We don't really know the full effect of that. And the bond dealers, which Gary mentioned, inventories are much smaller than they used to be partially because of rules and regulations. And you are going to see a crack in the bond market. Okay? It is going to happen. And I tell this to my regulators, some of you in this room, I'm telling you it's going to happen and you're going to panic. I'm not going to panic. We'll be fine. We'll probably make more money. And then some of my friends will tell me that we like crises because it's good for JPMorgan Chase. Not really. I tell people when Credit Suisse went bankrupt at the First Republic, it was terrible for the banking industry. I think we can make everything better, including that by just changing and modifying certain rules and regulations, letting market makers intermediate more in the market. But to give you a number, JP Morgan alone buys and sells $3 trillion a day. And we move $10 trillion a day of money and we're probably a tenth. So the money moving around the world is 100 trillion a day. The money moving around in the investments. This is stocks, bonds, corporates, governments, derivatives, credit, you name it. FX, sovereign debt around the world, 30 trillion. The people who set those long term rates are those people including you in the room. It's not the Federal Reserve. They can try to manipulate the long term rate. They can do the. What's it called, they do the twist or whatever. It doesn't work for that long. So if you look at economic history, bad things happen when those tectonic plates shift. It's very hard to see in real time. It is shifting and this is one of them. I just don't know if it's going to be a crisis in six Months or six years. And I'm hoping that we change both the trajectory of the debt and the ability of market makers to make markets. And also remember, there are a lot of people going down to Washington who actually like bad markets. And the problem with the bad markets isn't that it's bad for the big banks who make markets, it's bad for the people who raise money. Small businesses, asset backed securities, middle market companies, corporations, United States government. And that volatility scares people. And then also markets close. And you saw that happen multiple times in the last 12 years where you couldn't sell a high yield bond. If you're going to sell a lot of Treasuries, you could have had a little bit of issues. So yeah, it's coming. It's just part of all the stuff we talked about. And unfortunately it may be that we need that to wake us up. It's an unfortunate thing.
- [26:26]
Morgan Brennan
We do have some Fed officials in the room. So I do want to touch on the Federal Reserve here because the message has seemed to be we're going to be patient. We're not going to let politics sway our decision and policy. And we can afford to be patient here given all of the uncertainty with tariffs and the fact that the economic economy, while slowing, does still seem to be holding up somewhat. That seemed to be the message yesterday too coming from the Federal Reserve with the release we got on the heels of Fed Chair Powell meeting with President Trump. Is the Fed right to give time, time here?
- [26:57]
Jamie Dimon
Yes. You know, the Fed has a tough job, okay? And I have enormous respect for, for Jay Powell and a lot of the other Fed folks, but they're not, you know, you hear we say the Fed sets short term rates. We always say that, right. The Fed says short and they actually do set short term rates. But what happened when inflation went up, they followed. Are they really in charge? I just told you $30 trillion a day. They're not really in charge. They're trying to navigate it so that we have the best possible economy. And so they were late raising rates. They also told all the banks in the world that interest rates aren't going to go up to, you know, won't go higher than 2% when they have these ridiculous stress tests we have to go through, you know, which are complete waste of time. And we do 100 stress tests a week. You think that I care about that one? And I knew that rates workers, they had 2%. So we were quite prepared for rates going to 5%. Then they caught up and now they have to Wait and see. Because it's hard to tell what the effect of. Is the economy slowing? I don't know. Is it soft landing? I don't know. The other thing I should have mentioned about as we enter this environment, asset prices are still high. That would be very different if asset price was still low.
- [28:05]
Morgan Brennan
That surprised you a little bit.
- [28:07]
Jamie Dimon
Yeah, but I mentioned how much money has been thrown out there when you do that, kind of giving money to American citizens through QE or fiscal money is like water filling every crack. Some of you bought stuff, some of you saved stuff, some of you went into venture capital, some of you want private credit, some of you bought a Rolls Royce. But it fills the cracks, but it definitely lifts up asset prices. And so there'll be reversal of that. At one point asset prices come down. That may cause some stress and strain for people. So the right. They're white. Right. To wait. Now we have, you know, I think inflation may be going up. I don't know. I think there's a lot of stuff in the future in the future which is inflationary. So if you're the Fed, you can't just say, well, you know what happened today to consumer prices? Which by the way, if you dig into consumer prices, you would throw out the calculation. It's a lot of mud in there. Okay, so it makes, it's kind of consistent, you know, month by month by month. But year over year, three years from now, the adjustments they make, I'm not blaming them, it's hard to really tell. And you know, when you look at certain things like gas and milk and eggs and things like that. But the future, what I see is inflationary, which is huge fiscal deficit around the world. The whole world is remilitarizing infrastructure and green economy. We're going to waste a lot of money in the green economy and we should do some of it, but it's going to cost a lot of money. Demographics may be inflationary. I don't see the deflationary stuff. Yes, I may be that, but not next year. I mean, people spend a lot of money in AI and you see the projections of data center spend hundreds of billions of dollars and we have 600 AI use cases and it's very efficient, very effective, but it's not going to be the default. And technology is always deflationary. You know, it's kind of like a cosmic cosmological constant and this one may be faster than we've ever experienced. That, I think is possibly true.
- [30:04]
Morgan Brennan
You touched on permitting the idea of deregulation or at Least cutting red tape. Can that help to offset that?
- [30:10]
Jamie Dimon
Totally. Inflation deregulation, permitting, you know, getting rid of the cobwebs, the barnacles in the boat. Absolutely. Permitting, you know, we can't get a gas pipeline from Appalachia into New York. We can't get a hydroelectric wire from Canada into Massachusetts. We can't build the grids we need. We can't. I mean, it is extraordinary. There's a mountain pass, which I know you're aware of, I think it's called Mountain Pass Company. It's a railroad company. They've been waiting for 10 years to get permits. They can make rare earth and they can make magnets in size today. They need a little bit of subsidy to do it because the Chinese will come in and just undercut. So if you're buying it and you're going to say, well, I can't buy it from you because it's twice what it is over here, so we do have to have a little something to make up for that. But absolutely. Dereg. Pro growth attitude, getting skills right, getting permitting right, not wasting money on fake things, all would accelerate growth. I think we could be growing 3% a year. That's the other thing I would say we should aspire to grow. And you hear that, which I think is a very positive thing out of the administration today. We got it. We want to grow. And that if you. If you had 3% growth and you did all your CBO numbers, that's a dramatic difference, a dramatic difference in how much you collect in normal tax, about raising them and how people feel. And their incomes are going up pretty dramatically.
- [31:37]
Morgan Brennan
We do have the SEC commissioner sitting in the room. What are you seeing in terms of the IPO pipeline and what it takes to go public? Are public markets broken? Because I have spoken to some investors who would make the argument that, yes, they are.
- [31:51]
Jamie Dimon
You know, this is a great frustration of mine. And we've gone from. In 1996, with 8,000 public companies, we now have 4,000. And I'm talking about operating companies. And that's apples to apples. There are a lot more of these REITs and investment companies. I'm talking about companies that make stuff, sell stuff, buy stuff, et cetera. And private equity. I'm not against private equity. It's gone from owning 1,000 to 25,000. And private credit's growing like this. And the mortgage businesses left, the banking business. Pretty much all of that was all done. And this really without any forethought on the part of our regulators, like zero, None Nada. Not one conversation about the effect of requirements with capital liquidity or ccar, what it's going to do in these markets. There are some good things about those markets. There are some bad things about those markets. I'm not against private credit but the one that bothers me the most is we used to have a very active small business IPO thing. But if you're a small business and I'm talking about you make 100 million in profits and you might be worth a billion five or something, the cost of registering, the litigation, the disclosure requirements, the cookie cutter board instead of having a board of five with people you really like who've been there your whole life, the registration requirements, the compensation requirements. The press loves to beat up companies. We need to create an active small market and then we need to get rid of people like ISS and Glass Lewis. How they seeped into our system. They are like a, they are a cancer. And it snuck in. And I'm to blame for this too. I didn't realize it. I'm going back years ago that these guys and who do they go to first? All the pension plans, CalPERS, CalSTRS, New York, all the do gooders around the world. And then they started to use that to look at green stuff and comp stuff and social stuff. And we were filling out forms and I've told people I'm not filling any more forms voluntarily. If you want to fill out a form voluntary JPMorgan Chase, you need my permission. And we were filling it out for this ESG thing and that ESG thing and this DEI thing and the ISS thing and that thing seeped up and now 30% of the votes and the people lie, they automatically vote by ISS in Glass Lewis which by the way violates their fiduciary responsibility. And when they say to me, well we don't have the manpower, you have the manpower to read some proxies. It's not a big deal, you know. And so people should take more self responsibility. We should change how we do no broker votes. We should change how we, how people have to do it. And those people should be held to fire. They can say whatever they want, do whatever they want, put whatever number they have no requirement to be accurate. So Jay Clayton had passed something saying, you know, if a company disagrees with their numbers they have to respond and stuff like that, but they have no liability. You got to bring that back and, and then we can have active markets. One of the benefits of JP Morgan Chase is if you go to Sweden, they set up a Small account. This is a great thing where you could put in not all the money you want, but up to millions of dollars. You pay 1% a year, no capital gains. You can take the money in and out at will. Their stock market is growing like this and they made it much easier for small companies to register. Less disclosures, less requirements, more flexibility. And they've added hundreds of companies. So you guys should look around the world and say, what do we want to do? And we did this all thoughtlessly. And of course some people think it's a good thing. My view is healthy public markets, probably better than having moved all that into private markets. But we're going to find out.
- [35:20]
Morgan Brennan
I'm going to bring this back to the beginning of the conversation. I'm going to ask what are you seeing? Because you do you have so many clients. Small business, large business, global investors, consumers and your global footprint. So what are you seeing and how are you counseling your clients? And is it different with those in the US versus those who are non us given this global realignment we find ourselves in?
- [35:44]
Jamie Dimon
So the US Europe's done a pretty good job crippling itself. So the US stock market's worth 60 trillion. I think Frankfurt is 3, the UK is 3, Paris is 3. And that's gotten much worse over time. Their GDP per person has dropped. It used to be close to ours and now it's 25, 30% less. That's how important these things are for the people. And all these things I talk about, they hurt lower paid people more than anyone in this room. I mean, that's the amazing thing when you have these debates about policy, you hear this constant refrain. You're just talking your own book. And I'm saying, no, we're talking the book of all of our citizens. You want to lift them up, change these policies. So I think if you are a company and you want to raise money in high yield and the markets are wide open for, you know, certain types of IPOs and high yield, get the money. You just heard me talk about the moving tectonic plates. Markets sometimes will do what they have to do to screw the most people. You got to get prepared, don't assume. And in credit markets in particular, you know, and Gary, is Gary in the room. Do you know what the credit derivative spread is to guarantee American debt? Now is it's 50 basis points or 45 basis points. It's the same as guaranteeing Italy or Greece. Okay? So credit spreads could gap out dramatically. So if rates go up, so can credit spreads. And they're historically low. So you know, take advantage of that if you're going to need the money. So if there is some kind of crisis, you know, down the road, you can handle it.
- [37:12]
Morgan Brennan
All right, before we wrap this up, I do want to ask, almost two decades at the helm at JP Morgan, $4 trillion bank, one of the most successful CEOs of modern times, what are some of the lessons or advice that you would share with this room of policymakers and business leaders?
- [37:29]
Jamie Dimon
So get out, get out, get out, get out, get out. Talk to people, talk to clients, talk to. I talk to everybody. I think our government should, you know, Eisenhower had a lunch or dinner every week with the opposing side. Leadership. Absolutely. You learn a lot. You learn to respect a lot. You learn to respect opposing views. You learn about complaints, you learn about competitors. Don't put your head in the sand. Observe, observe, observe and have all your people do it. And it's a never ending process because we have competitors from around the world and they're smart and they're tough and they're coming. Bureaucracy. I gave a speech recently with our own senior people. Bureaucracy is extraordinary. If you look at companies, Sears, Kmart, Digital equipment, Nokia phones, BlackBerry, they all went bankrupt and so did half the financial companies in my short tenure. And it was almost always arrogance, greed, complacency, bureaucracy in almost all cases. And it just festered. People look at the number. They bullshit themselves about how they're making money or why they're making money or. And then they had these political things make the boss feel good. Don't embarrass someone. When people say to me they put a good foot forward, I always say don't put a good foot forward. Put the truth forward, 100% the truth and tell us, then we'll deal with it, it's okay. So a deep, honest assessment. I'd say you have to grit. You got to every day, man. Put your jersey on and just go with it. Fight, get involved with governments and regulators. You know, we see them, I see them just as regularly I see anybody else. And I'm going to say humility and curiosity. People don't want to work for jerks. They don't want to work for people who blame them. They don't want to work for someone who can't get on a road trip. You know, we do bus trips, we do trips around the world and we go to the branches, you know, and shake clients hands and you know, take a complaint or two. People want to know that you have a little heart, you have a humility. You care a lot. And, and when leaders, it's about them. People know. And that's a different kind of. Now companies can do quite well at that because sometimes those people are quite capable for a while. They will not build a great company. That's a different issue. So, anyway, I did a thing you can get on YouTube. We actually put it out there. It was 90 minutes about some of these learnings I've had in my life. I had a little fun doing it, but to put it on YouTube, we had to edit out the 30 minutes where I say things I shouldn't say. And I also went around the room and said, I said, I don't mean to embarrass you, but I got to tell him this thing that you did that just. But I had to give real examples, you know, because you don't give real examples. People don't understand it. And the real examples are just devastating and funny and hard to watch sometimes.
- [40:12]
Morgan Brennan
Final question for you. I'm not going to ask you a succession question. I know you hashed that out at your investor day last I will have.
- [40:17]
Jamie Dimon
A successor one day. Yes.
- [40:18]
Morgan Brennan
Yes. But I am going to ask you this before we get off the stage. And that is, what would it take? What would be the scenario that you would entertain to consider public service?
- [40:32]
Jamie Dimon
All right, ready? I'll tell you if I thought I could really win, which I don't think I could.
- [40:40]
Morgan Brennan
Jamie Dimon, thank you very much.
- [40:43]
Jamie Dimon
Appreciate it. Good job.
- [40:50]
Scott Wapner
CEO Jamie Dimon, out in California with our own Morgan Brennan with about as sharp and pointed commentary as I dare to say we've ever heard from him, nor anybody, frankly, in the position in which he currently sits, taking on a number of topics today. The trade war. Quote, we did too much everywhere, everything all at once. He said he was in China. They're not scared, he said. When asked how he thought all of this would play out, he also went after what he sees on the domestic front as well. Quote, we're not a team anymore. We need to fix immigration and health care, schools, taxation, regulation, among other things, that this time is in fact different, that his biggest worry, in fact is us. He said, can we get our act together? Also said it was not a foregone conclusion that the dollar would remain the reserve currency of the world. Doesn't think it won't, but said it's not a foregone conclusion that it will if we don't get our act together, as he suggested. He also was asked, are the bond vigilantes back? To which he said, yeah, you're going to see a crack in the bond market. I don't know if it's six months, six years, but you're going to see one. He commented on the Fed as well. They're not really in charge. He said they were late raising rates. They're right to be patient and they're right to wait now. Also commented on private credit, too, which he has in the past gone after. That's the backdrop of Jamie Dimon, maybe as animated on all of these topics as we've heard him in a while. Always entertaining, clearly. But I don't know, guys, that he's been this provocative on this many topics. He may throw out a there's a hurricane coming here or there's a storm brewing there, but one after another on all of these important topics, he put it out there.
- [42:50]
Jim Laventhal
So the markets, as we all were acknowledging, sold off during the speech.
- [42:54]
Scott Wapner
I'm glad you said that because the markets are at the lows of the the session or thereabout, because this was a reality check in many sorts, Jim, and I'm glad you said that. Well, a reality check on kind of where he thinks we are, whether it's domestically or globally, and what the implications could be across a whole swath of markets.
- [43:12]
Jim Laventhal
So the bond comments were pretty darn provocative. And if you want a reason for the markets in general to sell off, that's a good one. The comments about stockpiling bullets instead of crypto, well, leave out the crypto part of it. But stockpiling bullets, there was an apocalyptic tone there, and I'm sorry to use that word, but that's, that's the word now. I don't think that's what he's predicting. He is definitely being provocative. I don't feel we're on the cusp of any, any, you know, falling apart of the government or society. But there were some pretty apocalyptic comments there. And I'm not surprised the market sold off. I think the markets will regain their footing because as you pointed out, Scott, he wasn't saying, hey, the crack in the bond market is going to happen Monday, could be six months from now, could be six years. Right now, the bond market's pretty sanguine. The 10 years at 440, last I checked, that's not a distressing level. But he is putting it out there that we got to get our act together governmentally, societally. We got to come together.
- [44:06]
Scott Wapner
The tectonic plates, staff are shifting is what he said. And then he went down that list as I described to all of you on Each topic and what he currently feels is taking place.
- [44:18]
Josh Brown
Yeah, I mean he has had a negative tone for a very long time, Scott. But you're right, he was very detailed in a lot of different topics, which was surprising actually. The dollar comments about being the reserve currency and that's not an overnight problem. The debt issue, that's not new news. The private credit and Private Markets vs Publix was I think very, very interesting because we know that we've seen a massive shift into private markets versus publics and we don't know what the implications are going to be, especially if he's right in terms of the bond market. So it's always worthwhile listening to him. I don't think I will do anything in my poor, especially in the near term because of the comments that he said. But obviously you have to respect the knowledge and the details that he has, Kev.
- [45:14]
Scott Wapner
The other thing he said is what I see is inflationary. He added everything up and came out with the sum of inflation for a variety of reasons in which he documented there on the stage.
- [45:26]
Kevin Simpson
Well, I expected an impressive commentary and that was a little bit more thought provoking than I had even planned on. I took a slew of notes and I noticed some of the inflationary numbers that you pointed out. And I think it really is relevant when you look at the eyeball test for inflation. I think we did a study in house that was really only gasoline, milk and beer that were at about a 3% return. So inflation is real. It's not going away anytime soon. The comments on the Fed and then not being in control was pretty compelling for me. All in all, a little bit more emotional than anything else. You know, we sit down, sit here on the floor. I've done it for a long time and to watch the markets move. There's not many people that can do that.
- [46:03]
Scott Wapner
You know, Josh, in the context of some of the commentary from the street today, which I wanted to bring up anyway as we had our discussion about kind of where we are and where we're going from here, there are a number of firms out today asking whether investors are too complacent, whether stocks have come back so far that we're ignoring a lot of the risks. Risks in which Jamie Dimon just brought front and center for investors.
- [46:30]
Stephanie Link
Yeah, so I don't actually think we're ignoring the risk. I think the risks are taking place and they're actually coming to fruition. And the related stocks are having these blow ups, but they just pale in comparison in terms of their importance to the markets to the companies that are weathering this. Okay, so let me give you for instance. Yesterday Best Buy came out and they said the tariffs are causing pricing issues which are affecting consumer demand. The stock got hit hard. Best Buy is selling everything from vacuums and toaster ovens to flat screen TVs, cell phones and computers. The market's not ignoring it. Look at the stock chart today. Another example, Gap stores. This is Smarters. Okay, they're selling $39 sweatshirts. If it's Old Navy, it's $19 blown up, it's down 20%. How could we look at that, say the market's ignoring it?
- [47:26]
Josh Brown
Josh, the Stock was up 55% from the April lows. The turnaround is for real. It matters were very. Stephanie, because I own it and I think, I don't care, saying okay, I do, I'm sorry, I do that.
- [47:44]
Stephanie Link
Nothing to do with what I'm saying.
- [47:46]
Josh Brown
Well, you're, you're, that's fine. There's a big difference between Best Buy and Gap that I'll tell you.
- [47:53]
Stephanie Link
Okay, look at the share price today. That's what we're talking about. I don't care about the stock. The point is how could you look at these one day events in these individual companies and say the market's not paying paying attention to the risks. I think we're pricing in the risks really, in a really healthy, in some cases really aggressive way. The way they did it with Target, the way they've done it with lots of other stocks. I can, I can sit here and reel off. So we are doing that. But judge the bigger picture is that add up the market cap of Best Buy and Gap and Raw stores and nobody cares because what's going really well is the revolution. All of those CapEx numbers were just reaffirmed and that's where the market cap is. I opened up the A block talking about the Mag 7. That's, that's what matters more. So you asked me like, why is the S and P within 4 or 5% of its old high from February if we have all these risks? That's the reason. And I've talked about this before, we have businesses like Netflix which got a double two upgrade today. It's a utility. You know, bad things have to get for people to abandon their streaming service for people to cancel Netflix. Do you know how good Sirens is? No one's canceling it. You're seeing analysts upgrade names like that and Spotify and some of the names that just have a more subscription heavy component to what they do versus I need someone to go to the mall and buy an item. And so that's why the market is looking through this. It's not because we're not paying attention to the risk. It's because the more important companies by market cap, they simply aren't as affected by the price of bananas going up 50 cents a pound.
- [49:41]
Scott Wapner
There also is the fear, you know, as, as, as we and he, he being Mr. Dimon talked about what's happening in China and that how he was just there and quote, they're not scared. There is concern now in the market too about escalation once again and that could be weighing on the market too, not just the commentary from Jamie Dimon. So let's do this. Let's take a quick break. We'll continue to watch the market and we'll come back and I'll tell you some exclusive comments I got from Third Point's Daniel Loeb. It's at the company's Investor Day. I'll tell you what he said about the markets right here AI that every investor should hear. We're back up to this.
- [50:23]
Edward Jones
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- [51:53]
Josh Brown
I want.
- [51:53]
Scott Wapner
To touch the markets for you one more time and show you an intraday of the Nasdaq. It's a real pain point, down 1 1/2%. As you see names like Nvidia. Nvidia is down 4% right now. We mentioned the comments that Jamie Dimon had been making, but maybe more substantially to the market. Move was a Bloomberg report that said The US plans wider China tech sanctions with subsidiary crackdown. So we started to see the market move lower. Obviously a decline in some of the mega cap stocks is going to weigh on the S and P as well and then even some of the issues that are in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. So we're going to watch all of that for you here, but we're pretty much lows of the day, maybe a touch off of that, but the S and P there is down 1% too. We also want to tell you about a story that's new at noon and a milestone worth mentioning today. Daniel Loeb's third point turning 30 this week. Hard to run anything for three decades, no less. A hedge fund through the dot com crash, the global financial crisis and Covid LOEB starting third point with $3.2 million cobbled together from friends and family. Today IT has over 2020 billion under management and a net return of 15.5% since inception. Known for being one of the best activist investors ever, he's now grown the firm to include a significant credit and venture business. Loeb called the run, quote, improbable when he addressed the company's investor day yesterday, noting that only 2% of his cohort are still in the game. I spoke with him on stage and asked about his views on the market markets for the remainder of the year. He told me, quote, I think it will be okay. I think we'll start looking towards a better, more predictable 2026. I think there will definitely be winners and losers. The economy will grow at about a 1% rate unless something comes out of left field. So I think it's a good environment for investing in growthy companies at good valuations. And speaking of that, Third Point, as you might know, has some positions smaller in Amazon, Michael Microsoft, Nvidia, Taiwan Semi happens to be a top 10 position. So there are bets on AI. And I also asked Mr. Loeb how AI is shaping the way they analyze companies. At third point, he told me, quote, it's a pervasive component of our research process. It's a variable in which we benchmark all of the companies that we invest in, both in terms of how they're using it and how they're directly benefiting from it. You'll either be a beneficiary of AI or AI roadkill. So I think we all need to do our best to not be the latter. He also addressed several positions that the firm has taken. Some recently said Third Point got back into US Steel a month or so ago, in the 30s, though there it is at 5350. He was betting on its path to a deal and that it would materialize. This week's news of that company's partnership with Nippon sending shares surging. He has a new position in Ken View, the J and J spin talked publicly about it for the very first time and said he sees a big opportunity there and also said they recently bought bank debt and X the former Twitter a liquid and tradable security. So congrats to Mr. Loeb. 30 years and still going strong. Final trades are next.
- [54:58]
Discover
Are you still quoting 30 year old movies? Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days? Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted? If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past. Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. And every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the now it pays to Discover. Learn more@discover.com credit card based on the February 2024 Nelson report I've never felt like this before.
- [55:29]
Edward Jones
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Josh Brown
Dsw.Com.
- [55:59]
Scott Wapner
Just want to show you the markets one more time. Maybe getting a bit of a one, two punch this hour. An uppercut perhaps from Jamie Dimon and some of the comments that he made. And then a haymaker of sorts from that story talking about wider restrictions and sanctions on China from the United States. So we'll continue to watch all of that. Obviously S and P still down about 1%. But it's the Nasdaq and we could show you Nvidia too. Let's just throw that up there because it was such a big week for that name. Intraday stocks down 4%. We'll continue to watch that. Obviously take you through the last hour on Closing Bell today with Chris Toomey, Chris Harvey, Kevin Garden, Aya Yoshioka, Kevin Gordon, excuse me, and Aya Yoshioka. We can do final trades or you can tell me what you're going to be most watching now, Josh Brown, as you, as you head into your final trade.
- [56:45]
Stephanie Link
Yeah, I think I actually want to change mine. I want to talk about JP Morgan. This is like the greatest CEO ever in banking and arguably one of the best. And I think what we listened to today was just so helpful for people to understand the risks that exist out there. I'm long the stop staying long forever.
- [57:05]
Scott Wapner
No one. Anybody else here on jpm. Yeah, you guys. Do you obviously like Wells. The best of the group.
- [57:13]
Josh Brown
I own a ton of financials. A ton. But. But he was not as negative two weeks ago. Jamie Dimon was not that negative at their analyst day two weeks ago when he actually said business was better, incrementally better from when they reported the first quarter. He also talked up net interest income, certainly talked about risks, but he was more positive than I expected. These were.
- [57:34]
Scott Wapner
These were more sort of big, bigger picture risks. Right. Not today or tomorrow, he doesn't think, but something to chew on for certain.
- [57:44]
Kevin Simpson
He said he would only run for public office Pacific.
- [57:46]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned that too. And he said he doesn't think he could, I think. And that was the appropriate place to end it. Yeah. I don't know. Maybe we'll never find out. What's your final trade?
- [57:54]
Kevin Simpson
My final trade is Meta. Over a billion users being exposed to AI now. Incredibly profitable. Tons of free cash flow.
- [58:00]
Scott Wapner
Former gym farmer Jim. The former Jim no now knows Farmer Jim abv. Thank you, Steph the Cap. All right, I'll see you on the closing belt. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [58:23]
Edward Jones
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast and as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer this season.
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Jamie Dimon
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Jamie Dimon
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Edward Jones
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Jamie Dimon
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Scott Wapner
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Jamie Dimon
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Edward Jones
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