Podcast Summary: CNBC's Halftime Report – The Road Ahead for Stocks (8/26/25)

Overview

On this episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report, Scott Wapner and the investment committee unpack the continued momentum in the stock market, key earnings ahead (particularly Nvidia), and the intensifying chatter around Apple’s AI ambitions—including potential acquisitions and partnerships. The panel also digs into broader market sentiment around AI, assesses hot stocks in software, consumer, and communications, and rounds up big calls on Netflix, Uber, and more. As always, actionable insights and no-nonsense commentary drive the discussion.

Main Topics & Key Discussion Points

1. Apple’s AI M&A Rumors and Upcoming Event

• Apple’s Invitation & The Next iPhone Launch

  • Steve Kovac breaks the news that Apple has sent out invites for its September 9th event, expected to unveil the super-thin "iPhone Air" and possibly AI updates.
    • “September 9th is the date … the big star of the show is this reported super thin version of the next iPhone model.” (Steve Kovac, 02:22)

• Apple’s AI Strategy: Acquisition or Partnership?

  • Reports circulate of Apple eyeing Perplexity and Mistral but not engaging in formal talks; Apple likely favors licensing from AI leaders (OpenAI, Google, Anthropic) over major acquisitions.
    • “It really seems like they’re going to try to build this thing themselves. Potentially partnering with OpenAI … or Anthropic.” (Steve Kovac, 04:03)
    • “Instead of buying Perplexity, just do just pool Perplexity, so to speak, and do it yourself.” (Steve Kovac, 05:10)

• Investor Perspectives on an Apple-Perplexity Deal

  • Malcolm Methbridge: Cautiously supports the idea but sees more earnings impact from a possible JP Morgan-Apple credit card partnership than an AI buyout—at least in the next year.
    • “It’s going to take 12, 24, 36 months for Apple's designers and Perplexity’s engineers to get on the same page … It’ll be great when it finally gets there, but it’s going to take some time.” (Malcolm Methbridge, 06:45)
  • Josh Brown: Believes a Perplexity deal would be a major catalyst.
    • “If they do it, you get a new all time high in Apple the day they announce it.” (Josh Brown, 08:24)
    • “If we truly believe that AI is going to be the most important technological revolution since electricity … then you want one of the earliest and most talented entrepreneurs in the space.” (Josh Brown, 08:55)

2. AI Market Sentiment and Nvidia’s Earnings Loom

• AI-Related Market Anxiety

  • Wapner summarizes the current market nervousness: Meta’s AI unit shuffled, OpenAI’s Altman says “investors overexcited,” and 95% of GenAI pilots are failing (MIT).
    • “[Nvidia] earnings set to test Wall Street’s faith in the AI boom at a time when … there is a fair amount of AI anxiety happening in the markets right now.” (Scott Wapner, 10:52)

• Nvidia as the AI Bellwether

  • Brian Belsky: Nvidia’s report will help “subdue” the anxiety if results and forward guidance impress.
    • “Nvidia’s at the top of the mountain. I think the earnings are going to be good, the cash flow is going to be amazing.” (Brian Belsky, 13:25)

• AI Bubbles and Market Valuations

  • Jenny Harrington: Warns about “pockets where valuations make no sense” in AI and draws parallels between today’s AI market and the 90s Internet bubble.
    • “There is a lot of over enthusiasm … Are we getting it there, guys?” (Jenny Harrington, 14:03, 15:54)
  • Group discusses whether outsized multiples (ex: Palantir at 100x earnings) are representative or isolated.
    • “The average stock does not look like the Palantir valuation.” (Josh Brown, 17:09)

3. Software vs. Semis: Industry Shifts

• CrowdStrike’s Importance to the ‘AI Killing Software’ Debate

  • Josh Brown maintains cybersecurity is non-discretionary and likes CrowdStrike for steady growth (19% revenue growth expected).
    • “It’s the one line item on most technology budgets … that literally can’t be tampered with and probably has to go higher over time.” (Josh Brown, 22:16)

• Brian Belsky voices continued support for Okta.

  • “For revenue growth and the addressable market … this is a great name to be in that hasn’t had this big run like CrowdStrike.” (Brian Belsky, 23:48)

• Salesforce’s Uncertain Future

  • Jenny Harrington is bearish, fearing that AI will reduce software license needs as corporate headcounts shrink.
    • “If I think about a firm … if we did [use Salesforce], I would need 10 licenses today and probably my growth over the next several years will be a much smaller headcount escalation … So I think about stocks like that and think actually I don’t want to touch it.” (Jenny Harrington, 24:16)

4. Actionable Stock Highlights, Calls & Picks

Netflix (27:38)

• Josh Brown: Predicts Netflix will pivot to more creator-driven content to compete with YouTube’s surging TV viewership.
  • “By the end of the year, I think Netflix is going to roll out something … where YouTube creators are being incentivized to move over to the Netflix platform.” (Josh Brown, 28:05)

Uber (29:07)

• Jenny Harrington: Uber still fits her discipline growth strategy, but position size is “a little bit rich,” and she notes competitive risks from Waymo.
  • “We’ve joked for years … there’s nothing we love more than boring stocks. And our worry is that actually Uber doesn’t stay boring and that Waymo becomes way more competitive.” (Jenny Harrington, 29:38)

Lilly, AT&T, and Tower Stocks (30:13–31:55)

• Brian Belsky: Lilly’s strong product line justifies its outperformance. AT&T’s focus on broadband is a positive shift.
• Jenny Harrington: Tower stocks (Crown Castle, AMT, SBA) may feel a revenue headwind from AT&T’s spectrum acquisition.

Oclo: Nuclear Play (31:55)

• Brian Belsky: Sees nuclear as “in vogue” and Oclo well positioned with new nuclear platform tech.

Fast Casual & Restaurant Stocks (34:52)

• Brian Belsky: McDonald’s is a reliable value pick, Starbucks remains on his watch list pending operational improvements.
• Josh Brown: Toast is his favorite in the industry for digitizing restaurants and benefiting from efficiency needs.
  • “Toast is going to power the payment function ... It’s the biggest player in the space at this point standalone, and I think it goes higher.” (Josh Brown, 37:20)

Value Rotation Picks: O’Reilly, Synchrony, Hartford, Allstate (41:08)

• Josh Brown: Emphasizes traction in value stocks post-Jackson Hole, singles out O’Reilly (auto parts, “one of the best long-term charts I’ve ever seen,” 41:18), Synchrony (credit cards), HIG (insurance), and Allstate.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Apple/AI Acquisitions:
  “While Apple has been talking about doing M&A, it really seems like they’re going to try to build this thing themselves.”
  — Steve Kovac (04:10)

• On AI as the New Internet:
  “It almost throws back to the 90s when we had NetScape and AOL ... And Google was just coming up.”
  — Jenny Harrington (14:36)

• On the Market’s Rotation:
  “There’s been this rotation into value ... these are the types of stocks that really started to move on the heels of Jackson Hole in a way that they haven’t in a long time.”
  — Josh Brown (41:19)

• On AI Investment Hype:
  “If we truly believe that AI is going to be the most important technological revolution since electricity ... then you want one of the earliest and most talented entrepreneurs in the space.”
  — Josh Brown (08:55)

• On Software’s Future:
  “One of the biggest thoughts about threats from AI to software is that there will be fewer corporate employees, which means fewer licenses.”
  — Jenny Harrington (24:16)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Apple’s Event & M&A Chatter: 02:22-06:13
• Panel Debates Apple’s AI Direction: 06:37-10:52
• AI Market Anxiety and Nvidia Hype: 10:52-14:58
• Valuation and Bubble Debate: 14:03-17:33
• Nvidia & CrowdStrike Earnings Preview: 20:56-23:41
• Netflix and Uber Calls: 27:38-30:13
• Lilly, AT&T & Nuclear Stocks: 30:13-32:36
• Restaurant & Fast Casual Stock Breakdown: 34:52-38:18
• US Macro Commentary with Mike Santoli: 38:52-40:51
• Rotating into Value: Best Cheap Stock Picks: 41:08-43:37
• Final Trades: 45:21-46:02

Panel Participants

• Scott Wapner (Host)
• Josh Brown
• Jenny Harrington
• Malcolm Methbridge
• Brian Belsky
• Steve Kovac (Guest, CNBC’s Apple/Tech reporter)
• Mike Santoli (Markets Commentator)

Summary Takeaways

• Apple’s direction in AI remains uncertain—partnerships seem more likely than M&A, despite speculation.
• Nvidia’s earnings are seen as a litmus test for ongoing “AI mania”—either tempering or reigniting enthusiasm.
• Rotation into value stocks is gaining steam, with panelists pointing to hidden gems outside tech.
• Software stocks face real threats from AI, particularly those exposed to shrinking corporate headcounts; cybersecurity remains a relative safe haven.
• Traditional consumer and communications stocks (e.g., McDonald's, AT&T) continue to offer steadiness amidst tech volatility, while select high-growth restaurant tech (Toast) stands out.
• The market remains hyped on AI but is under increasing scrutiny for overvaluation in certain pockets.

For listeners, this episode delivers a punchy, insightful look at tech and AI market dynamics, plus clear, actionable ideas and debate on where the next market catalyst may emerge.