CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: The Road Ahead for the Record Rally
Date: September 16, 2025
Host: Courtney Reagan (in for Scott Wapner)
Panel: Jim Lebenthal, Stephanie Link, Josh Brown
Theme: Examining the sustainability of the ongoing record market rally ahead of a pivotal Fed meeting, plus sector breakdowns, stock picks, and broader economic signals.

Overview

This episode dives into the forces propelling the U.S. stock market's remarkable rally, debates the outlook ahead of a widely anticipated Fed rate cut, and breaks down sector opportunities from consumer stocks to banks and tech. The Investment Committee discusses what’s priced in, evaluates recession risks, and highlights both conviction buys and laggards. Notably, the panel maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook, driven by economic resilience and robust earnings.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. State of the Market & Fed Meeting [01:18–05:27]

• Current Market Backdrop:

  • Market slightly down midday with all eyes on the Fed.
  • The S&P 500 is up 32% from April lows, pacing for a fifth straight positive month ([12:44]).

• Fed Rate Cut Expectations:

  • Consensus is for a 25 basis point cut, “baked in” per Jim Lebenthal.
  • Panel expects minimal market shock from the decision ([02:04]).

  “We have a Fed chair and a Fed Open Market Committee that doesn’t like surprises... so I think the 25 basis points is probably baked in at this point in time.”
  — Jim Lebenthal [02:04]

• Market Resilience:

  • Since late April, only three S&P 500 closes down over 1%.
  • Rate cut is seen as precautionary, not recessionary.
  • The market environment is "very tranquil," suggesting optimism is well-founded ([02:04]).

• Growth & Earnings:

  • “The economy is strong—stronger than probably even we thought starting the year,” notes Stephanie Link ([04:00]).
  • Earnings still the main driver, with revisions trending higher ([04:19]).

2. Consumer & Retail Strength [05:27–07:48]

• Retail Sales Data:
  • August retail sales & credit card data show a surprisingly robust consumer.
  • Wealthiest Americans’ spending is a major pillar, as are healthy bank reports ([05:27–06:14]).
• Stock Picks in Consumer:
  • Stephanie Link highlights beaten-down retail stocks expecting a catch up:
    • Deckers: “Down 43% on the year… double digit earnings growth, gross margin expansion.”
    • Gap: “Taking market share… strong denim cycle.”
    • Target: “Turnaround story, 11X earnings, 5% yield, new CEO.”
    • Chipotle: “EPS multiple has come down; buyback increased” ([06:14–07:48]).

3. Caution vs Euphoria Debate [08:55–12:44]

• Barclays’ Warning:

  • Barclays signals “elevated euphoria;” panel counters that pockets of exuberance do not mean a market peak ([08:55]).

• Historical Perspective:

  • Market P/E ratios have not expanded, meaning earnings growth has driven returns ([09:18]).

  “Anytime you have a bull market…there are always these little sideshow things. Historically, those have not been reasons to just abandon your investments.”
  — Josh Brown [09:18]

  • S&P 500 has risen 11% on average in the year after a rate cut since 1970.
  • “If there’s no recession materializing… the S&P should be higher as monetary policy is more accommodative.”
    — Josh Brown [09:18–12:44]

4. Softening Risks & Sector Cycles [12:44–19:20]

• Recession Skepticism:

  • “It’s just really hard to paint the bearish picture here in which we’re going into recession.”
    — Jim Lebenthal [12:56]
  • Unemployment and jobless claims not worrisome in the aggregate.

• Housing & Autos:

  • Housing still subdued due to rates, but lower mortgage rates could spark a new upcycle with broader economic ripple effects ([14:21–16:43]).
  • Plays on Housing Recovery:
    • Stephanie Link: QXO (building products M&A platform led by Brad Jacobs).
    • Josh Brown: Rocket Companies (mortgage/refi), Invitation Homes (REIT).

• Homebuilders:

  • Dr. Horton and Toll Brothers called cheap, trading at 12X and 10X earnings respectively.

5. Financials/Banks — A New Era? [19:20–24:06]

• Bank Upgrades:

  • Mike Mayo (Wells Fargo) boosts targets for BofA, Citi, JPM, GS, MS.
  • Jim Lebenthal: Citigroup still has more room to run, remains undervalued even after a 41% YTD rally ([19:55]).

• Opportunities in Sector:

  • JPMorgan praised for consistent premium valuation tied to trust/confidence; sector seen as at an “identical opportunity” as at year start ([21:02]).
  • Steepening yield curve, capital markets recovery, and fintech are tailwinds.

  “The same opportunity in financial stocks today that you had eight, nine months ago… I think that augurs for a really great finish to the year.”
  — Josh Brown [21:02]

• Portfolio Moves:

  • Stephanie Link adding to Capital One, bullish on its acquisition of Discover Financial for scale in payments.
  • Morgan Stanley upbeat, M&A picking up (completed deals up 40% in North America YTD).

6. Tech Check: Google/Alphabet's Comeback [24:35–26:08]

• Alphabet (Google):

  • Jim Lebenthal takes a victory lap as Alphabet rallies post-judicial clarity, up >40% this year.
  • Size, resources, and judicial clarity cited as key security for its long-term prospects.

  “I just felt like, all right, so you know, it’s the behemoth, that’s Google. I’m going to stay with it.”
  — Jim Lebenthal [25:02]

7. New Stock Moves & Noteworthy Trades [28:52–33:12]

• Stephanie Link’s New Buy:
  • AppTean (auto parts, spinning out software): “Spin-offs perform… auto parts are in a trough, could recover… software has a huge addressable market.” [28:57]
• Consumer Experience:
  • Josh Brown remains bullish on Live Nation despite a downgrade, citing record ticket sales and strong secular tailwinds for live events ([30:24–32:13]).
• Tech Lagging — Adobe:
  • Jim Lebenthal is “hanging on but nervous” about Adobe, which faces increased competition and is down 21% YTD.

8. Sector Check-ins: Healthcare & Industry Updates [36:34–42:44]

• Healthcare Sector Outlook:

  • FDA warnings to several pharma/telehealth companies over misleading product claims; deemed routine by panel.
  • Johnson & Johnson featured: Josh Brown sees a breakout set-up as the firm pivots to pure-play healthcare, spins off non-core assets, and raises guidance.

  “Big base… massive transition underway… the bigger the base, the higher in space.”
  — Josh Brown ([38:52] on JNJ)

• Other Pharma Picks:

  • Jim Lebenthal likes AbbVie, AstraZeneca, and Vertex, focusing on pharma/biopharma over managed care.

9. Underperformers & Dead Money [43:54–45:29]

• Delta:
  • Jim Lebenthal remains optimistic despite flat performance, citing strong travel trends and healthy balance sheet.
• KKR:
  • Stephanie Link sold her position, preferring cheaper bank stocks due to valuation concerns.

10. Closing Trades & Accolades [46:03–END]

• Final Trades:
  • Josh Brown: Electronic Arts — “Set up, starting to move higher.”
  • Jim Lebenthal: Lockheed Martin
  • Stephanie Link: Capital One
• Shoutout:
  • Josh Brown’s firm made Barron's RIA Top 100 List ([46:03]).

Notable Quotes — Speaker Attribution & Timestamps

• "The setup is very positive. Even if you get a pullback..."
  — Jim Lebenthal [02:04]
• "Earnings have been revised higher and I think they're going to go higher even from here."
  — Stephanie Link [04:19]
• "There are pockets of euphoria, but… you never have a bull market that doesn’t have sideshow things going on."
  — Josh Brown [09:18]
• "The more you look at the data, the harder it is to paint a bear case."
  — Jim Lebenthal [12:56]
• "Housing and auto cycles could provide even more upside if rates fall."
  — Stephanie Link [14:21]
• "JP Morgan has never lost that trust and confidence."
  — Josh Brown [21:02]
• "The bigger the base, the higher in space."
  — Josh Brown [38:52] (on JNJ technicals)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Market/Fed Setup ........................................... [01:18–05:27]
• Consumer & Retail Data .............................. [05:27–07:48]
• Risk & Caution/Euphoria ............................. [08:55–12:44]
• Sector Cycles: Housing & Autos ................... [12:44–19:20]
• Financials & Banking .................................... [19:20–24:06]
• Tech: Alphabet/Google .................................... [24:35–26:08]
• Stock Moves, Calls & Downgrades ................ [28:52–33:12]
• Healthcare & Pharma/FDA ............................ [36:34–42:44]
• Underperformers/‘Dead Money’ ..................... [43:54–45:29]
• Final Trades & Wrap-Up ................................ [46:03–End]

Tone

Conversational, data-driven, pragmatic, and collegial with measured optimism about macro and sector prospects. The panel maintains a focus on fundamentals, historical perspective, and encourages selectivity even amid bullish consensus.

For Listeners:

This episode provides a sweeping, real-time review of market catalysts, sector rotations, and tactical stock ideas for active investors on the eve of a significant Fed decision. Panelists emphasize discipline, historical perspective, and the importance of “picking your spots” as the rally matures.