Halftime Report: The Road to New Records (June 11, 2025)
Hosted by CNBC's Frank Holland in place of Scott Wapner

Introduction

In this episode of CNBC's Halftime Report, Frank Holland, stepping in for Scott Wapner, delves into the current state of the markets as the S&P 500 approaches a new all-time high. With a panel comprising Joe Terranova, Shannon O'Kosha, Jason Snipe, and Steve Weiss, the discussion navigates through recent market movements, trade tensions, earnings forecasts, and sector-specific insights.

Market Overview

Frank Holland opens the discussion by highlighting the S&P 500's close proximity to an all-time high, noting the subdued market performance despite cooling inflation data and easing China trade tensions.

• Frank Holland [01:18]: "The S&P 500 is within 2% of an all-time high after cooling inflation data and China trade tensions come off the boil."

The panel observes a muted trading day with minor upticks across major indices:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Up ~0.3%
• S&P 500 and NASDAQ: Slight gains

Joe Terranova explains the lack of significant market movement despite positive trade announcements, suggesting that such news might have been anticipated and already priced into the market.

• Joe Terranova [02:06]: "Would indicate that it was priced in already. And I think in fact the market expectation is... we've become desensitized to all of the tariff negotiations."

Shannon O'Kosha adds that the current environment is characterized by broad market diversification, with strong performances in overseas markets such as Mexico (+17%), Brazil (+13%), Germany (+20%), and Spain (+22%), alongside robust gains in the Hang Seng (+21%) and India (+5%).

• Shannon O'Kosha [02:06]: "You can diversify in this market. You're seeing the broadening out."

Trade and Tariffs

The conversation shifts to the impact of trade policies and tariffs, particularly between the U.S. and China.

Shannon O'Kosha discusses the market's anticipation of tariffs potentially decreasing from the current 55%, allowing for a more nuanced evaluation of sector and company impacts.

• Shannon O'Kosha [05:42]: "Those broad tariffs that have been announced... are actually going to become much more narrow."

Frank Holland probes further into the feasibility of maintaining high tariffs, given the current political climate.

• Frank Holland [05:25]: "Are you saying the market's like that's doable, 55% on China, reciprocal, It's okay."

Shannon O'Kosha clarifies that while high tariffs are in place, there's an expectation that they will narrow over time, facilitating better market clarity.

Earnings and Federal Reserve

Shannon O'Kosha emphasizes the critical role of upcoming earnings reports and economic indicators in shaping market sentiment. She points out that while earnings have been robust, the next few weeks will reveal whether economic momentum persists.

• Shannon O'Kosha [03:54]: "We need to see real progress there, however, to justify the moves that we've seen in equities."

Jason Snipe discusses the Federal Reserve's potential actions, noting that while no immediate moves are expected, there remains a 14% chance of rate adjustments in July based on future economic data.

• Jason Snipe [06:26]: "I think the Fed could be at play going into the next few months."

Steve Weiss highlights the ongoing uncertainty in U.S. fiscal policy, referencing Barclays' outlook on market choppiness ahead as clarity on spending and tax bills remains pending.

• Steve Weiss [07:30]: "I'm pretty fully invested. I'm actually looking for an opportunity to lighten up because I just think that the story is as good as what we're seeing."

Sector Discussions

Technology and Semiconductors

The tech sector remains a focal point, with discussions around the semiconductors industry and the impact of relaxed export controls.

Steve Weiss shares his investment stance, favoring Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) due to its recent performance and valuation.

• Steve Weiss [16:20]: "One of my large positions continues to be Taiwan Semi and they just reported another great month up 40%."

Joe Terranova underscores the sustainability of the semiconductor recovery, noting the moderation in momentum after recent intense rallies.

• Joe Terranova [17:12]: "It's as good as what we're seeing. The market is a lagging indicator."

Jason Snipe highlights the positive implications for companies like Qualcomm, which is diversifying its revenue streams and investing in AI infrastructure.

• Jason Snipe [18:31]: "I continue to like this name... the innovations of Snapdragon is crucial."

Industrials

Steve Weiss discusses his increased exposure to the industrials sector, citing Caterpillar (CAT) as a strategic hedge against economic uncertainties.

• Steve Weiss [27:30]: "I bought XLI and I bought Caterpillar... it's just a way to play it as a hedge."

Joe Terranova concurs, identifying the industrials sector as the best-performing year-to-date, driven by aerospace and other robust segments.

• Joe Terranova [28:22]: "The industrial sector is the best performing sector so far year to date."

Shannon O'Kosha echoes the sentiment, noting opportunities in sectors like industrials and financials due to deregulation and AI-driven productivity enhancements.

• Shannon O'Kosha [32:40]: "Digital assets... you're seeing a tailwind in multiple parts of the financial sector."

Financials

A bullish outlook on Goldman Sachs is presented, with the panel praising the firm's strategic shift back to core investment banking and trading activities.

• Joe Terranova [30:14]: "Goldman Sachs... restored that reputation."

Steve Weiss adds confidence in Goldman Sachs' deep bench and readiness for forthcoming underwriting and M&A cycles.

• Steve Weiss [31:48]: "They have a very strong bench... poised for an underwriting and M&A cycle."

Max 7 Stock Focus: Tesla

The Max 7 stocks segment centers on Tesla, revealing a divided perspective among the panelists.

Shannon O'Kosha advises caution, highlighting the volatility and mixed analyst opinions on Tesla's stock price targets ranging from $175 to $400.

• Shannon O'Kosha [19:32]: "I do think that this group, perhaps absent Tesla, is going to continue to trade on AI enthusiasm or criticism."

Joe Terranova expresses uncertainty, emphasizing the complexity of Tesla's market dynamics and the challenges in predicting its stock performance.

• Joe Terranova [22:23]: "It's a great company... but there's such complexity to understanding how you navigate the volatility."

Steve Weiss critiques the speculative nature of Tesla's stock, questioning its fundamentals versus market enthusiasm.

• Steve Weiss [24:10]: "It never did. It's always expensive. It's a capital intensive company."

Jason Snipe remains optimistic, pointing to Tesla's potential as an inflection point, contingent on innovative advancements like Robotaxi deployments.

• Jason Snipe [25:07]: "I could see it going."

Financial Sector Insights: Goldman Sachs

The panel delves deeper into Goldman Sachs' strategic repositioning and robust performance, drawing parallels to a storied sports team like the New York Yankees.

• Frank Holland [30:51]: "Goldman Sachs is likened to the New York Yankees in baseball."

Jason Snipe underscores Goldman Sachs' strong investment banking performance and anticipates future growth driven by M&A activities.

• Jason Snipe [31:06]: "Their trading revenue has done phenomenal... poised for this time."

Steve Weiss praises the firm's leadership and talent acquisition, reinforcing confidence in its future prospects.

• Steve Weiss [32:33]: "The bench is extremely deep... poised for an underwriting and M&A cycle."

Shannon O'Kosha touches upon the delayed but positive outlook for M&A activities, further supporting Goldman Sachs' bullish stance.

News Headlines

Silvana Hanaud reports on several key headlines:

1. Texas National Guard Deployment: Governor Greg Abbott orders the deployment of the National Guard to maintain peace ahead of planned ICE protests in San Antonio.

2. Harvard University Investigation: Secretary of State Marco Rubio initiates an investigation into allegations that Harvard University may have violated federal sanctions by hosting a conference in China involving blacklisted officials.

3. WTA Support for Players: The Women's Tennis Association announces measures to protect player rankings for those undergoing fertility procedures, following a new maternity leave policy.

ETF Edge Segment

Dominic Chu discusses current trends in alternative investments, featuring insights from industry leaders John Vaneck of Vanguard and John Champaglia of Sprott Asset Management.

• John Vaneck (Vanguard) [38:22]: "The sector is catching another bull market wave... driven by a resurgence in nuclear energy."

Joe Terranova introduces the newly launched Alternative Asset Managers ETF (GPS), which targets fund managers managing private equity, venture capital, and infrastructure investments.

• Joe Terranova [40:06]: "We're investing in fund managers that manage those assets... ticker symbol is GPS."

Shannon O'Kosha emphasizes the importance of uranium in the alternative asset space, driven by renewed interest in nuclear energy and supportive policy measures.

Midday Market Commentary

Mike Santoli provides his viewpoint on the day's market activity, noting the muted response to a benign CPI report and highlighting the energy sector's outperformance.

• Mike Santoli [43:08]: "Pretty muted reaction to what was a benign tame CPI report."

He attributes the energy sector's strength to supply constraints and strategic drilling reductions, leading to firmed-up crude prices.

• Mike Santoli [44:20]: "Crude prices have firmed up in part because companies are drilling less."

Final Trades

The panel concludes with their final investment moves:

• Steve Weiss: Increased holdings in QXO, viewing it as a long-term play based on its recent fundraising and growth prospects.

  • Steve Weiss [46:45]: "This is a long term play. The stock is going to do what other Brad Jacobs stocks have done."

• Shannon O'Kosha: Optimistic about natural gas and economic activity's late-year inflection.

  • Shannon O'Kosha [47:07]: "Optimism around natural gas and economic activity."

• Jason Snipe: Favorable on Evercore, anticipating benefits from an impending M&A cycle and deregulation trends.

  • Jason Snipe [47:07]: "I like this one here."

• Joe Terranova: Bullish on Charles Schwab, citing its remarkable recovery since March 2023.

  • Joe Terranova [47:25]: "Charles Schwab, which has had a remarkable recovery."

Closing Remarks

Frank Holland wraps up the episode, reminding listeners to tune into upcoming segments such as the ETF Edge and coverage of the PGA Tour's U.S. Open. He reiterates the importance of staying informed through CNBC’s Halftime Report and other educational resources.

Frank Holland [48:35]: "Learn more@schwab.com trading."

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Joe Terranova [02:06]: "We've become desensitized to all of the tariff negotiations."

• Shannon O'Kosha [05:42]: "Those broad tariffs... are actually going to become much more narrow."

• Steve Weiss [16:20]: "Taiwan Semi... just reported another great month up 40%."

• Shannon O'Kosha [19:32]: "This group, perhaps absent Tesla, is going to continue to trade on AI enthusiasm or criticism."

• Joe Terranova [30:14]: "Goldman Sachs... restored that reputation."

• Mike Santoli [43:08]: "Pretty muted reaction to what was a benign tame CPI report."

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions, market analyses, and strategic insights shared during the June 11, 2025 episode of CNBC's Halftime Report. Whether you're an avid listener or new to the podcast, this recap provides a clear overview of the episode's critical financial discourse.