The Road to Record Highs 5/20/25

Summary

Podcast Summary: Halftime Report – "The Road to Record Highs" (May 20, 2025)

Hosted by Scott Wapner, CNBC's Halftime Report delves into the current state of the markets with insights from top investors including Josh Brown, Stephanie Link, Jim Leventhal, and Brian Belsky. This episode, titled "The Road to Record Highs," explores the factors influencing the market's trajectory toward new all-time highs, examining economic indicators, sector performances, and investor behaviors.

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1. Market Overview

Scott Wapner opens the discussion by highlighting the recent performance of major indices:

• S&P 500: Down by 0.33%
• NASDAQ 100: Pulling back about 0.25%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Similar decline of 0.25%

Timestamp [02:19]

Scott notes, “We’re in the red across the board right now, looking like we're on pace to snap that six-day win streak for the S&P” (02:19).

2. Economic Indicators and Bond Yields

The conversation shifts to bond markets, emphasizing the recent movements in yields:

• Two-Year Treasury: Pulling back a few basis points from 4%
• Benchmark Yield: Close to 4.5%
• Long-Term Bonds: Yielding around 5%

Timestamp [02:19]

The rise in bond yields dominated recent market discussions, influencing investor sentiment and market dynamics.

3. Corporate Buybacks and Retail Investors

Josh Brown underscores the role of strong economic indicators and corporate behaviors in sustaining market momentum:

Timestamp [02:19]

“We have continued strength in the economy... earnings are up 12% for the first quarter,” Brown states, emphasizing the resilience despite market volatility (02:19).

JP Morgan highlighted unprecedented retail investor activity:

Timestamp [05:02]

“Retail investors bought net $4.1 billion, the largest level ever for that time of day,” Brown explains, attributing this surge to both retail participation and significant corporate buybacks, which rose 24% year-over-year to $272 billion in Q1.

4. Bond Yields and Market Impact

Jim Leventhal discusses the implications of bond yields on the market:

Timestamp [07:05]

“We are in a very light week with few macroeconomic releases. The market will key off news from Washington D.C.,” Leventhal explains, indicating that bond yields hovering around 4.25% to 4.75% are manageable and unlikely to derail market gains (07:37).

5. Technology Sector Analysis

a. Tesla

Josh Brown analyzes Tesla’s significant rebound from its April lows:

Timestamp [11:24]

“It’s still one of the worst of the Max 7,” Brown remarks, noting Tesla’s 14% decline this year but highlights its 52% rebound from lows, emphasizing the stock’s volatility due to shifting narratives around autonomous driving and software integration (11:24).

b. Meta, Amazon, and Target

Stephanie Link and Josh Brown discuss key tech players:

Meta (formerly Facebook):

• Up 25% from April lows
• Trading at 17x forward estimates
• Strong revenue growth and operating margins

Timestamp [15:24]

Brown states, “If this were to pull back, I would absolutely continue to add to it,” reflecting confidence in Meta’s long-term prospects (15:24).

Amazon:

• Up 16% from highs
• Trading at 14x EBITDA
• Dominance in retail and advertising sectors

Timestamp [16:04]

Brown notes Amazon’s operational improvements and diverse revenue streams as strengths, stating, “They have an amazing moat” (16:04).

Target:

• Up 50% due to oversold momentum
• Trading at 11x earnings with a 4.5% dividend yield

Timestamp [13:31]

Belsky emphasizes Target’s strategic supply chain adjustments amidst tariff pressures, considering it a long-term investment despite short-term challenges (13:31).

c. AI and Nvidia

Josh Brown highlights AI’s pivotal role in the current market:

Timestamp [20:23]

“AI is the most important theme in the entire market,” Brown asserts, positioning Nvidia as a central player with its pivotal role in AI-driven advancements (20:23).

6. Industrial Sector Analysis

a. Boeing

Josh Brown and Brian Belsky delve into Boeing’s resurgence:

Timestamp [36:42]

Brown mentions Boeing’s 28% surge over the past month, attributing it to new CEO initiatives and substantial order backlogs: “They have seven years’ worth of backlog in planes” (36:42).

Brian Belsky adds, “We doubled our position earlier in the year,” citing Boeing’s strong cash flow prospects and strategic deals as key investment drivers (37:36).

b. Lockheed Martin

Jim Leventhal discusses Lockheed Martin’s robust position in aerospace:

Timestamp [38:14]

Leventhal dispels fears of market disruptions, affirming, “Lockheed Martin is one of the top aerospace companies out there,” highlighting sustained demand for their products like the F-35 (38:14).

7. Retail Sector Analysis

a. Home Depot

Josh Brown and Brian Belsky examine Home Depot’s performance amid tariff concerns:

Timestamp [26:45]

Brown notes Home Depot’s stable revenues and gross profits despite missing earnings estimates. He remains cautiously bullish, emphasizing long-term housing market strengths: “There are 5 million homes short in this country” (26:45).

Brian Belsky complements this view, highlighting investor preference for Home Depot’s liquidity and strategic stock positioning: “Home Depot offers liquidity. It’s a large-cap, consumer discretionary name” (29:36).

b. Lowe’s

Belsky contrasts Lowe’s as a value play within the retail sector:

Timestamp [29:46]

“Weighing in as a more value-oriented play with a higher dividend and lower P/E,” Belsky explains Lowe’s strategic advantage over Home Depot in specific market segments (29:46).

8. Healthcare Sector Analysis

a. Pfizer and Merck

Josh Brown provides insights into Pfizer’s strategic licensing:

Timestamp [42:47]

“Pfizer is the worst stock I own, but news like this gives a slight boost,” Brown comments on Pfizer’s agreement to license an experimental cancer drug, despite its year-to-date decline of 36% (42:47).

Jim Leventhal reflects on Pfizer’s long-term potential:

Timestamp [45:02]

“I think this stock will regain its blue-chip status over time,” Leventhal asserts, acknowledging the need for patience amidst current volatility (45:02).

b. UnitedHealth

Josh Brown discusses UnitedHealth’s recent rally and challenges:

Timestamp [43:57]

“UnitedHealth is down 36% year-to-date, but it’s the best managed care company in the world,” Brown highlights the stock’s value at 9x EBITDA despite ongoing investigations and leadership changes (43:57).

Jim Leventhal shares his experience:

Timestamp [45:02]

Having sold his position early, Leventhal remains optimistic about UnitedHealth’s recovery, comparing it to long-term blue-chip resilience (45:02).

9. AI and Manufacturing Collaborations

Josh Brown discusses the collaborative efforts in AI and manufacturing:

Timestamp [22:36]

“Collaborations like Foxconn and TSMC’s partnership to build supercomputers are crucial for maintaining global dominance in AI,” Brown emphasizes the importance of revitalizing technological manufacturing in the U.S. (22:36).

10. Investment Strategies and Future Outlook

Brian Belsky and Scott Wapner wrap up with strategic insights:

Timestamp [14:43]

Belsky advocates for the “golden age of stock picking,” emphasizing underweight positions in high-performing sectors like tech and communication services, while favoring long-term growth areas (14:43).

Josh Brown outlines his best stocks list, focusing on industrials and aerospace defense as primary growth drivers:

Timestamp [36:42]

“These sectors are leading the market with strong backlogs and strategic deals,” Brown concludes, recommending investors to consider these areas for robust returns (36:42).

11. Final Trades and Recommendations

Josh Brown highlights key stocks poised for growth:

Timestamp [46:31]

“Look at eBay breaking out above the 72 level; it’s positioned for a potential breakout,” Brown recommends eBay as a top pick due to its solid operating margins and undervalued status (46:31).

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Josh Brown: “AI is the most important theme in the entire market.” (20:23)
• Jim Leventhal: “As long as the 10-year hovers between 4.25% to 4.75%, we’re fine.” (07:37)
• Brian Belsky: “Home Depot offers liquidity. It’s a large-cap, consumer discretionary name.” (29:36)
• Josh Brown: “If this were to pull back, I would absolutely continue to add to it.” (15:24)
• Jim Leventhal: “Lockheed Martin is one of the top aerospace companies out there.” (38:14)

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Conclusion

The episode of CNBC's Halftime Report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current market landscape, emphasizing the resilience of major indices despite recent pullbacks. With robust economic indicators, strategic corporate buybacks, and strong performances in sectors like technology, industrials, and healthcare, the path to record highs appears promising. The discussions underscore the pivotal role of AI, the importance of strategic stock picking, and the ongoing recovery and potential within key industries.

For those not familiar with the episode, this summary encapsulates the essential insights and expert opinions shared by the panel, offering a clear perspective on the factors driving the market towards new heights.

Transcript

[Frank Holland]

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[Stephanie Link]

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[Jim Leventhal]

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[Frank Holland]

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[Stephanie Link]

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[Scott Wapner]

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[Brian Belsky]

NYSE SIPC.

[Stephanie Link]

On WhatsApp, your personal messages stay private between you and whoever you send them to. So things like the passport numbers for your honeymoon stay between you and your fiance. And that video call for your gran's 80th stays in the family. Even your streaming password stays between you and your college roommates who still ask for it every week in your group chat. Because on WhatsApp, your personal messages are yours. No one else can see or hear them, not even us. What's up? Message privately.

[Scott Wapner]

I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Thank you very much, Carl. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I am Frank Holland in for the judge. Scott Wapner front and center this hour, the road to record highs. Stocks taking a bit of a breather following six straight days of gains for the S and P. So what will it take to get us back to all time highs? The investment committee is standing by to debate that and much more. Joining me for the hour we have Josh Brown, Stephanie Link, Jim Leventhal and Brian Belsky. But first, get a quick check on the markets. Right now taking a look at where we're at in the markets, right? You see we're in the red across the board right now, looking like we're on pace to snap that six day win streak for the S and P. Also for the NASDAQ 100 right now, the Dow pulling back about a quarter of 1%. The S and P down a third of a percent. Same story for the nasdaq. We also got to take a look at the picture when it comes to bonds. Yesterday that was the big story. Today we're seeing the two year just pulling back a few basis points from 4%. The benchmark very close to 4 and a half percent. The long bond pulling back a few basis points from a 5% yield. That really seemed to dominate the conversation here on this desk and when it came to the market yesterday. So Stephanie Link, I think the question is what's stopping us or what's going to help us get to new record.

[Josh Brown]

Highs, continued strength in the economy. We're running at 2.3%, led a Fed tracker right now for the second quarter. Inflation continues to make progress and earnings, earnings are up 12% for the first quarter and I think you're going to see double digits for the full year. I think yesterday was really telling Frank. I mean we had all the reasons to sell off in a big way. We opened down a lot but then we rallied and we had all the reasons to to sell off because we went from oversold a month ago to overbought. The S&P 500 up 19% from the lows. You had the Moody's announcement and yet the dip was bought. And not only was the dip bought, it wasn't just technology and comm services, it was very broad based financials and technology as well as industri industrials. So I kind of think it sets us up pretty well going forward as the momentum continues in the overall economy. We have a very big week ahead of us in terms of the retailers reporting. So we'll hear about consumer but they've stayed pretty strong as well. So I mean I feel pretty good. I've been, I've been buying though.

[Scott Wapner]

Josh Brown, your opinion. Again, we're very close to those all time record highs for both the S and P and the NASDAQ. The S&P just about 3% away. In your mind, is there something that can push us higher or something that might keep us away from getting to that new record all time high?

[Josh Brown]

I mean my guess is we're going to break through it. I don't know if we can sustain it or if there is significant upside from there. I certainly hope there is. But if I like gun to my head, I would say we might struggle at those old highs for a little while. You could break through, retest, consolidate. There's nothing wrong with that. By the way, it's perfectly okay to have a flat market. It's perfectly okay given the trauma that we've lived through over the last, I don't know, six weeks or so. It's perfectly okay for us to stall at some point. So I'm not necessarily worried about that. I guess the big concern here would be are we experiencing a bull trap? Did we rally all the way back just to have the stool kicked out from under us? I hope that's not the case. The technicals though, if you're short term oriented. Have you in? 89% of the S&P 500 are now above their 20 day moving average. 81% above the 50 day, 55% or more than half of all S and P components are above the 200 day. So if you're just purely looking at breadth and market internals and asking like is this rally healthy? Is the state of the market advance like sound beneath the surface? The answer is yes. Your macro opinions might disagree with it, your political opinions might disagree, but people are buying stocks. They're buying almost all of the stocks.

[Scott Wapner]

You know, speaking of people buying the stocks, just a little tidbit right here from JP Morgan's trading desk yesterday at about 12:30 while we were doing the show talking about the pressure that bonds are putting on the markets, retail investors, they bought net $4.1 billion, the largest level ever for that time of day. A more than 11% standard deviation move. They say it may point to retail investors and also corporate buybacks as incremental buyers. One other note from JP Morgan, they put this out earlier in the week. Corporate buybacks in Q1,272 billion up 24% year over year. So Jim Leventhal, does that tell you that the market's healthy, that the fact that we're seeing a lot of those dip buyers be retail investors and maybe it's also corporate buybacks again, big jump when it comes to corporate buybacks as well.

[Jim Leventhal]

Many of us on the desk, Frank, have noted for quite some time that retail is no longer the dumb money. We've got to throw that, that terminology away. And frankly it hasn't been for four years when it showed up in the meme stock trades and started, you know, really sending some hedge funds into, into real problems territory. But I say that just to note it in terms of your question overall about the health of the economy. Just synthesizing what Josh said on the technical and Steph, what you said on the fundamental. We have to note that this week we're in a very light week. The macroeconomic releases, there really aren't any. We'll get weekly jobless claims. That's always important. Steph, you pointed out retail earnings, but outside of that there's really, really nothing. It's next week that things start to pick up again. But what that means for this week is that what the market's going to key off of mostly is news coming out of Washington D.C. now that may be a little bit like watching paint dry. I get that. You know, you get a, you get a tweet from the president or you see a procedural vote in Congress. But really those are the things that this week are likely to move the market from a fundamental basis is what's going on with that tax bill. And then, you know, the big daddy in all of this is trade policy. Uncertainty on that front has come down, but it needs to come down more. We will rapidly get to early July when those reciprocal tariffs are unpaused. And we need to see a heck of a lot more progress on negotiations before then.

[Scott Wapner]

You know, Jim, very quickly I want to push back on the idea of yours calling a procedural vote in Congress the Moody's downgrade. It seemed to be time to the idea that this tax bill was going to move forward in Congress where they came out with this downgrade very concerned about deficits. And later this week, the speaker is hoping to get that bill on the floor. Could have a big impact on bond yields. And one more tidbit for you. Julian Emanuel from Evercore said this on our air yesterday that 90% of the gains in this bull market since October of 2022 have come when the 10 year yield is below 4 and a half percent. So if we see a spike in bond yields, isn't that boat a lot more than just procedural, at least for the market?

[Jim Leventhal]

Well, first off, when I said procedural, what I specific specifically talking about was the bill moving out of committee. To me that's procedural. I mean, the real meat and potatoes is when you get this on the floor of the House and then the floor of the Senate. We're not there yet. I know the House wants to do this.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, the House may be there this week.

[Jim Leventhal]

Yeah, I know. But we're not there yet. And the point that I was driving is that this week in terms of what's going to move the market is news on the tax bill, whether it's procedural, whether I qualify it as procedural or you qualify it as otherwise, that's what's really going to move the market in my opinion. It's interesting though, you brought up the 10 year and obviously that was something Steph that reversed yesterday. Right. We had a spike early in the day on 10 year and then it came in and the market regained its footing. Great. What I would submit to everybody watching and for all of us to consume as well, is that the 10 year hangs out in this range, call it 4.25%, 4.6%. As long as it hangs out there, we're fine. And I would even dare to say that up to 4, 4.75% we're okay. These are not levels that are going to kill.

[Josh Brown]

And wouldn't you say that the rates are higher because the economy is actually doing better than expected?

[Jim Leventhal]

I would. You know, others might say it's because of inflation fears, but yes, Steph, I agree with.

[Scott Wapner]

But in all fairness, they spiked on Monday because of deficit concerns from the Moody's down.

[Josh Brown]

But that wasn't news.

[Scott Wapner]

No, I know it's nothing new, but I mean, people reacted to that.

[Jim Leventhal]

Yes.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah.

[Jim Leventhal]

But it's. But for a moment, because it's not news.

[Josh Brown]

Right.

[Scott Wapner]

Brian Belsky, your take on things, what moves us higher, what keeps us where we are, what moves us lower in your mind, what do you see as potentially the next catalyst?

[Brian Belsky]

Well, Frank, so much. Thanks so much for having us. One of the greatest things about talking, the fourth person to talk is that I can just piggyback on what everybody else says. No, listen, we've been with much humility, we've remained bullish and with much prudence, we've remained bullish because we believe in our process and our discipline. And so here's what our process and discipline is saying. We published a piece last week and we talked about the market is transitioning from skills. Jeremy, to show me, I think we need to see going forward is a number of different things. Signposts in terms of green light go longer term, I think there's a difference between very short term, which we typically talk about in this show, versus intermediate versus longer term. Longer term, we're steadfastly bullish. Our 25 year secular bull market theme remains intact. Intermediate term, we are bullish as well. On a short term basis, I think we need to see some things. Number one, we need to see guidance and earnings growth guidance come back in and earnings growth remain consistent. We absolutely, positively have to stop reacting to every single news event, every single thing out of Washington or every single thing about tariffs. And then lastly, let's proceed on. With respect to what's happening with the budget, I think that's what's going to end up happening. So I think Steph is absolutely spot on. With respect to yesterday was a Hallmark day, I think Josh is amazing. With respect to what he said to trauma, what are the four ways you react to trauma? You fight, you flee, you freeze and you fawn. I think with the right now you kind of freeze a little bit. And let's not fight this because we've been fleeing. So let's just relax on the budget side. And with Jim saying from a macro perspective, macro stuff is always, always Delayed, but at the end of the day, earnings are coming in well and we think the market is significantly higher by year end. It's just a matter of where you want to buy the market from here.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, we're talking about where the markets are moving from those April lows. A big part of that move from the April lows, that's been tech. One of the names from those April belows that's really pushed the market higher, that's been Tesla. Josh, I want to get your take on test. Of course. Our David Faber has a very big interview coming up at 2pm Eastern Time right here on CNBC. He's going to sit down with Elon Musk and talk about Tesla. But that stock off of its April lows bouncing about 50% to the upside. I just want to get your take on Tesla and the rest of the tech trade.

[Josh Brown]

It's a huge, it's a huge bounce off the lows. This is a stock that's become synonymous with, with huge bounces off the lows. I think it's notable. It's still one of the worst of the. One of the worst three of the Max 7. It's still down 14% this year. Apple's worst down 17. Alphabet's down about 12. Those are the three underperformers of that, of that Max 7 cohort. I think what's most interesting about Tesla from my perspective, because I'm not involved in the stock, is the degree to which the whole narrative flipped upside down. Six months ago it was Tesla's next big growth engine. Before the robots are ready, is going to be these autonomous taxis and the cyber taxi and they're going to kill Uber. Uber is the third best performing stock in the entire S&P 500 this year. Also my highest conviction position, it's up to 52% while Tesla is down. And the narrative now is who cares about who has the cars. This is going to be a software business and a network effects business. And Tesla is just one of several players that's going to have an app and a bunch of cars. There's only one player that's going to try to connect them all and own the consumer. So you know these narratives about like the next engine of growth and we're going to do robots and we're going to do connected taxis, etc. Look, you're going to see a lot of volatility in the stocks that play in that arena. I guess my point is narratives change and everybody agrees on something in January and by April they might all Agree on the opposite thing. We've seen that with Alphabet just in the last six months. We're seeing it now with Uber versus Tesla and you'll see it again.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Belsk, you also own test your take on this big run up on this company seems to be moving higher on a lot of just positive sentiment around the relationship with the White House and also the idea again of autonomous driving as Josh just pointed out. But it is still a car company with sales that seem pretty weak in the US Europe and also in China.

[Brian Belsky]

I think that's right, Frank. And at the end of the day this stock was oversold. It was a momentum play. But you have to kind of go back and also look at the sector representation. Representation. The stock is in the consumer discretionary sector and that's part and parcel. While consumer discretionary has been hit so hard and over why consumer discretionary has rallied back. So at the end of the day you have to I think be really careful with respect to where you buy this stock. In terms of momentum. We obviously own the stock. We actually bought more early this year and we're a long term player in this. We think actually Tesla is more of an option. You want to buy Tesla and own Tesla. Tesla longer term because of the operating system. Much like you own Apple 20 years ago. You want to own Apple, I'm sorry, Tesla now for the same reasons with respect to the operating system for the next 20 years.

[Scott Wapner]

So you bought earlier this year. So you kind of rode the wave between some of the declines and obviously big bounce off April lows.

[Brian Belsky]

We did, we did. And you know, again we are underweight the stock and our overall theme for the Mag 7 is you underweight the Mag 7 and you overweight other areas with respect to the sectors that represent the make seven, namely tech, communication services and consumer discretionary. Again, that begs to. That begs to define the stock picking environment that I think we're into. And we have entered officially the golden age of stock picking.

[Scott Wapner]

Tesla shares up over one and a half percent right now. Again our David Faber is going to sit down with Elon Musk today. Coming up at about 2:00pm Eastern Time. One on one interview with Elon Musk I'm sure is going to be a wide range of top topics. Again, an exclusive CNBC interview with Elon Musk or David Faber sitting down with the Tesla CEO. Moving on to other parts of tech. I just want to bounce this off you guys. According to B of a profit taking in tech going on the tech buying streak ending after a seven week Run a wide variety of tech ownership here. Steph, I'm going to start with you. You own Metta, those shares up about 25% off their April low. What do you make of that run? Are you someone who wants to profit take when it comes to Meta at this point or do you feel confidence about this stock? Continue the run.

[Josh Brown]

No, I mean the stock is still down 13% from its highs. Right. And it's trading at 17 times forward estimates and they beat. Total revenues rose 16%. Operating margins came in 300 over 350 basis points better than people expected. I like the moat, the free cash flow, the management team. So to me, if this were to pull back, I would absolutely continue to add to it. And Amazon, same thing. It's down 16% from its highs and it trades at 14 times EBITDA. Historically it's traded about 17, 18 times. And they have an amazing moat. Right. And not only in retail, but obviously us and advertising, which I think is the real surprise growth driver for the company going forward.

[Scott Wapner]

Everybody here owns Amazon. I do want to ask you about Amazon. Are you concerned about the tariff risk? About half of the revenues come from those third party sellers. So much of that is sourced from China, not to mention other parts of the business could be impacted if the consumer sentiment gets weak, that could potentially hurt the ad business. And then you know, the hyperscaler business could be impacted by higher data center call costs, higher buildout costs through tariffs. So a lot of tariff exposure across.

[Josh Brown]

The board, 17% last quarter and their supply constraint. So. And they're two times the size of Google's cloud business, one and a half the size of Microsoft's business cloud business. So they are dominant retail. Sure, there's definitely some risk there. But I think for them they've done such a good job on operating profit improvement and distribution and facilities management. So I think they'll be able to handle it. There are the winners and the losers in retail. Amazon, Costco, Walmart are the winners. I hope eventually it's going to be Target as well. We'll see to see tomorrow. But I don't think it's going to be tomorrow. But I do think they'll get back. But I think you really want to be very careful in discretionary as well. But they're a winner and they're a share taker.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah. By the way, on target, new note just came in. I believe about 50% of their their items are sourced out of the country. So a lot of tariff risk in that stock and not the same size grocery Business as a Wal Mart.

[Josh Brown]

They got more in Mexico though than in China. They have been moving their supply chains out of China. They're still about 20% though, so there's absolute exposure there. They just have to execute consistently. The stock is trading at 11 times earnings and has a 4 1/2% dividend yield. I mean, they just have to execute. And I hope that they will. I think that they will. But the big number you're going to watch on target is going to be the operating margin number to. Do they get it to 5%? I think they will.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, as you mentioned, we're going to find out when earnings hit. Jim, coming over to you when we're talking about Amazon, your view on that company again, also a big bounce off the April lows looking at Amazon up more than 20%.

[Jim Leventhal]

Well, Amazon Web Services is really the growth driver going forward. That's what I'm looking at. And I don't see any reason for that to disappoint going forward. Both with GDP growing, what that implies as far as business spending, AI, etc, etc. It seems somewhat obvious to me. So I'm with Steph on this, you know, if I can. Frank, please indulge me. I actually prefer to talk about Alphabet. I think that's more, more of a battleground stock, if you will, and for good reason. We had a very big argument about it two weeks ago. Not an argument, a discussion, a bull bear discussion. Two weeks ago when the Eddy Q comments came out from Apple and the question of what is Google going to become? Josh, you were there. We had a good discussion on this. You know, is it value tech, is it growth? Growth, where does it lie? And I think as we look at this now at roughly 17 times forward earnings, we know there are competitive threats out there. I would say this is just solidly growth, not just at a reasonable price, but growth at a superb price. When you consider, consider 17 times earnings. A company, that actually is a verb. You Google something. I get it. There's still competitive threats there. Its own web services, its own moonshots reducing share count. I can go on and on. But simply to say growth at a superb price is the main point here. 17 times forward earnings. To me it seems obvious.

[Scott Wapner]

By the way, Alphabet's hosting its Iowa event today. Belska, you own this one as well. Your take on Alphabet, by the way. Bmo out with a note. You're, you're a firm saying that Google search fears are overblown. A lot of concerns about Google search being disrupted by AI search and AI competitors. Your take on the stock.

[Brian Belsky]

You know, Brian Pitts is a great analyst for us at BMO and he talked about a lot of the unicorn companies coming out of San Francisco using the Google platform and their AI once they kind of build up their infrastructure. That's number one. Number two, we recently added Google to our value portfolio for a lot of the same reasons that Jim talked about. We think from a contrarian basis, I think it's from common sense perspective we're not going to stop using the Google machine to figure out where we're going. And then lastly we've been long, long, long bulls on YouTube TV. YouTube is basically the YouTube business is just as big as Netflix and as you know, hopefully we've been 13 year owners of Netflix. So we love that name. So I think Google is a name that I think that you should, can, will and should be continue to building positions in. And it's one of the names that we really love. Longer term.

[Scott Wapner]

We're talking a lot about these eight different AI players. Big earnings report coming up next week. Got Nvidia. Joshua, you own Nvidia. Your view on Nvidia and especially how this market trades until we get that report, it feels like we've gotten a lot of confirmation on the quote unquote trade and big investments. Whether it comes to chip buying in the Middle east or Capex investments may being maintained here in the US but we won't really know until we hear from Nvidia during the earnings report. What do you, what are you expecting from that earnings report? How do you think the market trades until we get it?

[Josh Brown]

I think the most important thing to come out of this past earnings report is that AI is more important than tariffs to the stock market. It might be hard to believe but I want you to know and Michael Semblance that JP Morgan has actually done this research. The term I was mentioned 2.6 times more often than the word tariff in this last round of S&P 500 earnings reports. And if you ask me what saved the stock market this April, I have to point to the massive gains in the mag 7 and other AI related names when one by one every single important CEO in cloud computing and chips and software came out and said not only are we affirming our spending guide for capex, in some cases we're actually raising it. If we didn't get that, we're not in an S And P that's 3% from the high. Anyone who wants to disagree with me can, but they'll be Wrong. And I have the data to back it up. This is an AI driven tape. This is still the most important theme in the entire market. Yes, there are other themes. Yes, there are other sectors doing well, but apps and AI, there's just no chance that we would have pulled this, this spring out of the hole the way that we have. And that's because of the affirmed guidance on what's happening with this investment mega theme. So that's how I feel about AI in general. And Nvidia is the most important company. Nvidia's situation is it's the sun and AI is a solar system revolving around it. So I'm long, I don't know. It's a lot of words to tell you what you already know.

[Scott Wapner]

I'm not going anywhere. Were you excited at all? Really quickly, because we're going to move on about the Foxconn TSMC deal that they announced where they're going to all work together on these factories to build supercomputers. I mean, it seems like the business they're already doing, but they're kind of bringing in even more partners. They already have a kind of an ecosystem of partners for two new ones.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, I guess, I guess that's great because it's, you know, we want to accomplish two things. We want to maintain global dominance in AI and we want to have the companies in that arena profitable. And unfortunately, that means manufacturing a lot of things, not just chips outside of the US but we also want to acknowledge the fact that we probably abandoned technological manufacturing to a way greater extent than we needed to over the last 30 years. And the pendulum should swing back. We should be able to make more than we currently can make in the United States. I think there's room to believe in both ideas. So. Yes, that's a, that's a good announcement. I don't think it would change my opinion on whether or not to own in video or any of the related companies. But sure, we definitely want to see more of that.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, fair enough. Looking at video shares right now, pulling back about 1% today. We want to get to a committee move right now in the financial space. Stephanie, you're now in KKR.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, I mean, the stock is down 15% from its highs and I think private markets are in the early innings. You get private credit, private wealth, infrastructure, insurance, 16% fee related earnings compounded annually. And again, the stock is down 15%. By the way, they're also diversified. They have 26% of their A in real assets too. So I think I like the diversification. And I'm just using the stock price pullback to add a quality name.

[Scott Wapner]

And pulling back again today. Pulling back about three quarters of 1%. All right, coming up next on Halftime, retail's big week. Home Depot saying it plans to keep its prices steady despite the tariffs. We're going to get the committee's take on that, plus the setup on more retailers still to report. And then later, Josh Brown's best stocks in the market, the two names that he thinks are on the verge of breaking out. Halftime's back in two minutes.

[Frank Holland]

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[Scott Wapner]

And we're back on Halftime. Home Depot trying to hold on to gains after the company reiterated its full year sales guidance shares pulling back just about A half a percent. The CFO also saying they are not planning to raise prices due to tariffs. Steph, you own Home Depot?

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, it was an okay quarter. I was surprised it was up so much in the premarket. They missed on earnings but they did do a good job on revenues and gross profit. Same store sales. A sigh of relief. It was actually. They eked out positively 0.2%. But they did say the cadence in the quarter did improve from February, got better in March, got better in April and then so far in May. Business is actually good. It's expensive. So I'm kind of on the fence in terms of what I want to do here. But I've held out the this long and I am a housing bull for the long term. But we do need interest rates to go in our favor and we just haven't had that yet.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, I think Home depot trades about 25 times forward earnings right now. Mortgage rates like right around 7%. So doesn't it just put a lid on what this company can possibly do?

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, but I do think rates are going to come down over time and we are 5 million homes short in this country. And you have, you talk to homebuilders and they haven't produced, they've under produced for 15 consecutive years. And so I think eventually it's going to catch up. You've got 5 million millennials that also want to buy a first time home. And I think you need to get mortgage rates about 30 year fixed, about 6% or lower to see that real demand. But the demand is going to be there. So I'm going to, I'm not sure what I'm going to do with Home Depot. I like Dr. Horton better. It's way cheaper. But we'll see.

[Scott Wapner]

You know the demand is definitely there. By the way, according to Redfin, put our reports a few days ago in Belsky own Home Depot as well. Yeah, the highest number of available, available homes for sales happen in April, since March of 2020. So basically we have the same number available now as we did before the pandemic. We all know what happened in March of 2020, but it's just not affordable. It's not the, it's not the, the listings, it's the affordability right now. And I want to ask you the same question. Doesn't that just put a lid on the same store sales for Home Depot? The margins, especially with tariffs, I mean where do they get the sales from? Because to get some things out the door they're probably gonna have to discount because people aren't moving like they were. They're not getting their homes to sell like they were.

[Brian Belsky]

Yeah, I think there's a couple of things going on here. Number one, going back to my theme of show me the company did a good job talking about guidance and how it was going to run their money, run their company, number one. Number two, when people, meaning investors, are worried about going into the market, they want to buy liquidity. Home Depot offers liquidity. It's a large cap, consumer discretionary name. Much of consumer discretionary, especially retail thematic names, have been absolutely crushed. And then number three is I want to take the other side of the trade in terms of housing. When people are nervous, they want to fix up their garage or they want to do something, things like that. So they're going to use Home Depot as a enhancement to their house and things like that, relative to saying, oh, by the way, I want to go buy it, buy something. So that actually affords them a little bit more time. And many of these big companies, whether or not it's Home Depot or Lowe's, bought a lot of supplies in terms of the raw materials a year ago where raw material prices were a lot lower. So their margin side of things, that's why the CEO can ultimately eat a little bit more of those costs over the short term.

[Scott Wapner]

You also on Lowe's reports tomorrow as well. But if you're talking about people kind of doing it, fixing up the garage, whatever else, isn't that more of a Lowe's play? Is that we're more of the do it yourselfers as opposed to Home Depot. That has more of the pros.

[Brian Belsky]

It is on a relative basis. But Lowe's is much more of a value play. Right. The bigger dividend, lower, lower P E. They've been much more, less, much less showy in terms of their revenue and their growth relative to Home Depot. But yeah, you're right from a Home Improvement side of things. But still, Home Depot is a big part of their business.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, we're going to be the conversation there. Low shares pulling back about three quarters of 1%. All right, coming up here on halftime, Josh Brown's best stocks in the market. But first, let's get our headlines with Silvana Hanau.

[Josh Brown]

Hey.

[I]

Hey, Frank. How are you? Good afternoon. Well, Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the Trump administration is working to reach an agreement with Iran that would allow the country to have a civil nuclear energy program, but bar it from enriching uranium. At a Senate hearing today, Rubio said the deal would be an off ramp toward peace for Iran. But achieving such a deal will not be easy. The FDA has set new Covid booster guidelines that will require new clinical trials before the shots are approved for healthy children and adults, the agency's commissioner and new vaccine chief wrote in the New England Journal of Medicine. The requirement isn't expected to affect rollout for high risk groups. The change means it's likely the rollout of updated vaccines this fall will be delayed. And the former personal assistant of Sean Combs, also known as Diddy, is back on the witness stand this morning in his second sex trafficking trial. David James testified yesterday Combs ex girlfriend Cassie Ventura told him she couldn't leave Combs because he controlled her career and money. Prosecutors are expected to call three witnesses today. Halftime Report we'll be right back.

[Scott Wapner]

CNBC News Update is sponsored by Morgan Stanley where old school hard work means.

[H]

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[Stephanie Link]

Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. I don't know if you knew this.

[Scott Wapner]

But anyone can get the same Premium Wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities. So do like I did and have one of your assistant's assistants switch you to Mint Mobile today. I'm told it's super easy to [e-mail].

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Switch upfront payment of $45 for 3 month plan equivalent to $15 per month.

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[Josh Brown]

See full [e-mail].

[Scott Wapner]

And we're back on Halftime. We have an update to one of Josh's best stocks in the market. Josh, tell us all about ebay.

[Josh Brown]

Well, this is a name that we Talked about on May 8, Frank. I think Scott was hosting that day, so you probably don't remember it, but hopefully the gang does. We were talking about ebay in the context of this is a company that's not going to be raising costs on its on its users or on its customers because it's really not affected by tariffs. Only 11% of revenue on the platform has anything to do with China. 80% 24% of the revenue on ebay comes directly from its marketplace business and 16% comes from advertising. And almost none of it is related to goods manufactured elsewhere that have to pay a tariff to be sold here. You also have a cheap stock, 17 times earnings versus 26 times for the industry. It's a slow grower, that's why it's cheap. But it's a company with a 30% off operating margin and it has just broken out technically above the 72 level. So we talked about it, let's say nine or 10 days ago as a, as a breakout, a potential breakout. Now it's an actual. This is basically a stock that the last all time high was October of 2021. It's still 10 below that level. I think we're going to challenge that level and potentially break through. If you took the trade in your low long, I would use that old resistance level of 69 as my stop and I would let this ride, see what happens.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Josh, you got two other names that you want to highlight today. Both of them at all time highs are trading very close to all time highs. And you see even more upside from here.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah. So it's important to note, Frank, one of the benefits of running the best stocks in the market list is it really gives you an idea of where the strength is, the market is, and of course where the weaknesses. Where the strength is is in the industrial sector. The XLI is the first of all of the S and P sector ETFs to make a new record high breakout above the old high. We still haven't gotten that, for example, from tech within the industrial sector. We have 25 names on our best stocks list. Seven of those names are error, aerospace and defense. And I know there is some Boeing ownership on the desk right now. We just saw one of the biggest highlights of Trump's whirlwind trip through the Middle east be Etihad Airlines committing to buying 28 Boeing jets with GE engines in those jets. That's a $15 billion deal. And all of these stocks have been rallying both before and since. We saw that at Axon. You bet you know them better as the maker of Taser. This is law enforcement and defense. The stock is just absolutely on fire. It's a breakout in progress. I would use $700 as my pivot point for risk management. RTX, this is the old Raytheon merged with United Technologies. This is aircraft engines. It's missiles, it's satellites and cybersecurity. Also breaking out the $135 level had been resistance as recently as the spring. Now it's back at that high end. Challenging momentum, not yet overbought. I think she's going to go the whole ITA looks great. That's the industry group ETF that's up 19% year to date. A lot of stocks in rally mode and these are the best stocks in the market right now.

[Scott Wapner]

You know Josh, to your point the it hit a new opportunity all time high today on a seven session win streak. I'm going to come over to you. Josh actually mentioned two stocks that you own, Boeing and GE Aerospace. Your take just right now on the industrials and the idea of this aerospace defense trade.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, I like aviation in general. Boeing and Airbus are a duopoly. They have 13,000 planes in their backlog. Boeing has a new CEO and he is delivering, he's changing the culture, they're executing better. It's never been a demand problem with Boeing. It's been an execution and safety problem. And so this new CEO is actually in the process of fixing that. It's going to take time but they have seven years worth of backlog in planes and so to me the visibility is very good. I think they could get to 12 billion in free cash flow by 2027. You're right now at negative 2.2 billion. So that's a turn that is yet to come and I think not really appreciated in the market.

[Scott Wapner]

Look at that chart for Boeing. Up 28% over the last month. By the way. Also a Bernstein upgrade moving the price target from 218 up to 249. Citing that deal with Qatar that Josh was just talking about about 200 jets sold. Belsky, very quickly you own Boeing as well. Any, any thoughts about the upgrade or about the trade?

[Brian Belsky]

No, we doubled our position earlier in the year a little bit early in a value portfolio. You know the execution, the operating side is a really really big deal when you're looking at value stocks that have been really crushed like that. And given the fact that this stock throws out so much cash in the theme of not only aerospace but aerospace defense industrials are all the obviously up a bunch because of Josh's pal at Uber. But at the end of the day with respect to the kind of cash that this company's throwing off and we think the opportunity has, I mean Boeing should be a name that you should look at.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, industrials also best performing sector in the S and P year to date. Josh mentioning it hitting all time highs. Jim, want to come over to do you own Lockheed Martin.

[Jim Leventhal]

Yeah. And I think both Lockheed Martin and the sector in general, there have been some narratives in the past six months that simply have not come true. One of them is that things like the F35, which Lockheed Martin produces would be replaced by drones. That was the famous Elon Musk tweet. That's clearly not happening. Another narrative is that European countries would give up on American products like the F35 or the missiles that Lockheed Martin produces because of antagonism from the current presidential administration. That's clearly not happening either. I think there's a lot of room here to run. And the last narrative, I'm sorry to say, is that there would be peace breaking out under this new presidential administration. Just doesn't seem to be happening. I wish it were, but it's not going to. And even in peacetime, we all know that to preserve peace, you have to prepare for war. Lockheed Martin basically is one of the top aerospace companies out there. The F35 is as far as airplanes in the sky, the best. That's the one that people want. The F47 is a long way away.

[Scott Wapner]

All right. To that point, not even clear of sales from Germany. Also Spain ramping up its defense or even priced into these names. So a lot more upside. One other thing, by the way, it's Qatar. You hear people saying Qatar, it's Qatar. I'm going to leave it there. You get exclusive access to Josh's best stocks in the market on C cnbc.com go to cnbc.com Josh Brown, Josh got his own section or you can scan the QR code right there on the screen. He's making the face and this picture right now on the big screen that's in front of us. So you really get Josh's best stocks. All right. Coming up next, Mike Santoli joins us with his MIDDAY word. We're back right after this. I can see markets are down about a quarter percent across the board. We're back on halftime here, markets commentator Mike Santoli joining us with his midday word. So, Mike, what do you make of the action that we're seeing today? We talked about bond yields yesterday, and there's no real level that's restrictive to stocks in your mind. But, but Julian Emanuel on our air yesterday said something a bit different. He said 90% of the gains in this bull market since October of 2022, they've happened when the 10 years below 4.5%.

[J]

Yeah, that makes sense. I would say probably 90% of the time since that period, we've been below 4.5%.

[Josh Brown]

Right.

[J]

So in other words, it's not like, oh, we spent a ton of time above four and a half and we couldn't get out of our own way. What I mean is, if we get there fast, it's always a problem. What I do observe is that bond yields are kind of just hovering. They're not running away from us, they're not getting unanchored. They absolutely matter. That's where the equity market's going to take its cue as to whether it should worry about, you know, cost of capital, real yields going up, fiscal situation. The stock market's supposed to be pausing here, probably just after the sprint we've had higher. It's doing it in a pretty benign way. One thing I always say is as boring as bullish. And the market is kind of settled into this, you know, kind of low drama grind a little bit. So that's fine for now. And again, it's as long as the stock market, I mean, the bond market allows it to do that. If you look at the leadership, I mean, the fact that industrials have been working, the fact that financials have hung in there, we're keying off of this idea that the economy is going to be resilient based on what we expect out of policy right now. We'll see if that gets challenged over the next few months. But that's, that's my read on the message of the market at the moment.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Mike, I thought I had you on this one, but you're right.

[J]

There's no God.

[Scott Wapner]

10 years. Been below 4.5% most of the time. All right, you got me, man. Mike Santoli with the midday word. Always a pleasure, Mike. All right, coming up next, a check in on the healthcare trade, including UnitedHealth's big rally this week. Much more halftime coming up right after this. And welcome back to Halftime. Pfizer is higher after announcing it's going to pay up to $6 billion to license an experimental cancer drug from a Chinese biotech company. Shares up about 1 1/3 of 1%. Josh, you own Pfizer. One other note on this one. Merck did a similar deal last year. They paid and Pfizer ended up paying about double for this deal this time around. And Merck paid just about a year ago.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, I mean, it's nice to see the stock green. It almost never is. This is the worst stock I own, has been for a long time. My average cost is in the high 20s. So forgive me for not ripping my shirt off and swinging from the chandelier I think the key thing here with Pfizer is it had just a vicious low in the April sell off down to 2159. Did not act defensive at all. There's almost no point being invested here. So if the most enthusiasm we could muster on news like this is a 1% jump, I would just ignore Pfizer if you weren't already involved with it.

[Scott Wapner]

All right. On four straight days of gains though. Belsky, you own this one as well?

[Josh Brown]

We do.

[Brian Belsky]

We only own it in our value portfolio. It's a bit of a contrarian name. We're worried about pharma overall, but we're going to stay with the stock.

[Scott Wapner]

All right. We're going to stick with Health Care UnitedHealth. We got to talk about it. We actually didn't talk about this yesterday. Looking to extend some gains after posting the best two day rally since all the way back in March of 2020. Step you actually just bought some more of this last week where it was having some issues. CEO resignation pulling guidance. Wall Street Journal doing a report that they're under investigation. The company pushing back on it. Like a bit of a soap opera.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, it is a soap opera. And it's still down 36% year to date. It's been painful but the stock now trades at nine times EBITDA. They have the old CEO who was at the company in 2006 to 2017 and under his reign the stock actually rose 350%. He's a great operator and I do still think that this company is the number one managed care company in the world with size and scale. 151 million people they serve. They're going to repeat priced Medicare Advantage. It's just going to be a 2026 story. So I was just buying it because it was down so much. It is, I still believe the best in the business. They got to get through this pain. It's not going to go up like this for a while, I don't think. But I do like it for the long term.

[Scott Wapner]

Jim, you actually saw it out of this back in April. Are you happy that you sold at that point? I don't know what level you sold at, but here's the reason I'm asking. A lot of people feel like they threw out the guidance just to kind of kitchen sink it and give the old CEO who's now the new CEO just a chance to start fresh. And then now we're seeing the reaction the stock after they threw the guidance out the window.

[Jim Leventhal]

Yeah, I sold it April 4. It was up in the two days after the Liberation Day debacle in the markets and I sold it about 546. I'm specifically saying that price because Steve was very kind to me last week and said gave me a shout out for selling it in the 400s was actually 546. Nonetheless, yes, I'm happy I'm sold it. I think this will turn around. Steph, you know the company. I know the company. Sometimes this happens to the bluest of blue chip companies. And I will say this for everybody who has a little bit of gray hair. You go back about 20 years ago when Vioxx hit Merck. Merck was the bluest of blue chip companies just like UnitedHealthcare. And the stock went down about 40% in a week. Took a long time to recover. Step I don't know how long it's going to take to recover. I really don't know. It is going to be around for the long haul. It will regain its blue chip status. I'm not going to rush back in but I think this is one that Steph is likely to be proven very right. It's just going to take time.

[Josh Brown]

25 billion in free cash flow.

[Jim Leventhal]

You could, well, you could do a lot with the things. We just don't know if that's really what.

[Scott Wapner]

Now I know why Jim was scoffing. Looking at the chart once again, down about 24% over the last month. So well deserved. Scoff about if you're happy, if you.

[Jim Leventhal]

I didn't mean to scoff at anything regarding.

[Scott Wapner]

Stay with us. Final trades coming up on halftime. We'll be right back. Maybe more scoffs from Jen. Maybe. And we're back on halftime with final trades. Josh Brown, you're up first.

[Josh Brown]

3:00Am off my best stocks list. It's a buck and a half away from all time. Excuse me, 52 week highs. The stock looks incredible.

[Brian Belsky]

Brian Belsky, Stephen Financial ticker symbol sf.

[Jim Leventhal]

Jim, Walt Disney Company. Anybody notice that this thing has a little bit of momentum to it?

[Josh Brown]

I have Stephanie Link, Truest NII is poised to recover 0.9 times book value.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, that's going to do it for halftime. Thank you so much for watching the exchange. It kicks off with Kelly Evans right now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

[Stephanie Link]

All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer hey everybody.

[Scott Wapner]

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