The Run to New Highs 5/14/25

Summary

Halftime Report: The Run to New Highs (May 14, 2025)

In this engaging episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report, host Scott Wapner and a panel of top investors delve into the current market dynamics, exploring the imminent run to new highs. Recorded live on May 14, 2025, the discussion brings forth valuable insights from investment experts Joe Taranova, Steve Weiss, Jason Snipe, and Bryn Talkington. Skipping the usual advertisements and intros, the episode zeroes in on strategic market moves, sector performance, and notable stock performances that are shaping today’s trading landscape.

1. Market Overview and Sentiment

Scott Wapner opens the discussion by painting a mixed picture of the current market:

• Nasdaq leads the charge, remaining the standout performer of the week.
• S&P 500 shows moderate gains.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average is struggling to keep up.

Notably, the VIX index is at a historically low level of just above 18, indicating reduced market volatility. As Wapner notes, “[Tom] Lee says risk reward for stocks is better today than February of '25” ([00:02]).

Key Insights:

• The market is transitioning from a defensive to an offensive stance.
• Low volatility suggests increased investor confidence or complacency.

2. Shift from Defensive to Offensive Strategies

Joe Taranova emphasizes the shift in market dynamics:

"We're now in the middle of May. The buyback window now opens... Defense is off the field. And now here comes the opposite offense." ([02:05])

This transition allows for a strategic repositioning away from traditional defensive stocks towards more growth-oriented and previously undervalued sectors.

Key Insights:

• Defensive sectors like financials and insurance have been the safe haven for the past three months.
• There is a renewed focus on semiconductors and the “Magnificent Seven” tech companies, signaling a bullish outlook.

3. Notable Stock Movements: Amazon and Nvidia

Steve Weiss reveals a tactical move:

"I bought back Amazon and Nvidia... selling them at the highs... and buying them back down." ([05:00])

This strategy underscores a short-term trading approach capitalizing on stock volatility.

Nvidia’s Remarkable Comeback: Nvidia has surged back above its 200-day moving average and surpassed a $3 trillion market cap, outpacing even Apple. Jason Snipe comments on this rally:

"It's up 20% in the last month... the investment from the Middle East... has been a powerful boost." ([07:07])

Key Insights:

• Nvidia’s strong performance is fueled by significant investments in AI infrastructure.
• The rebound reflects broader confidence in tech and semiconductor sectors.

4. Semiconductor and AI Sector Update

Joe Taranova and Bryn Talkington discuss the semiconductor industry's pivotal role:

"The semis... favoring the Magnificent Seven... allowing for rebuilding of positioning." ([02:05])

Bryn adds:

"Semis... continue to run... earning monster numbers... whole sector will continue to rally." ([10:07]).

Key Insights:

• The semiconductor sector is central to the AI boom, attracting substantial investments.
• Companies like Applied Materials and KLA Corp are poised for strong earnings, reinforcing the sector's strength.

5. Private Equity and Financials

The conversation shifts to private equity firms and financial stocks:

Private Equity Highlights:

• Apollo and KKR are highlighted as strong performers with robust fee businesses and substantial capital deployment.
• Goldman Sachs is noted for its upward momentum, benefiting from strategic moves in the market.

Steve Weiss remarks:

"Owning Apollo, owning KKR... it's only a matter of time when they really click... through a transaction or an IPO." ([21:31])

Key Insights:

• Private equity firms are leveraging favorable market conditions to expand and capitalize on new opportunities.
• Financial stocks are regaining strength, reflecting overall market optimism.

6. Retail Sector: Walmart and Target

Joe Taranova and Jason Snipe provide insights into the retail sector's performance:

Walmart:

• Despite being 8% off its yearly high, Walmart remains a strong contender with strategic investments to compete against Amazon.
• Joe Taranova predicts Walmart could become a trillion-dollar company, emphasizing its ability to capture market share in both grocery and e-commerce.

Target and TJX:

• TJX is outperforming, with a price target raised to $145, while Target faces downgrades despite strong market presence.

Key Insights:

• Walmart’s aggressive capital spending is aimed at long-term dominance over e-commerce giants.
• Off-price retailer TJX is gaining respect for its resilient performance amid a challenging retail environment.

7. IPO Activity: eToro and Others

The episode covers the surge in IPO activity, spotlighting eToro’s successful NASDAQ debut:

• Christina Parts Nevels reports eToro’s shares rose from an initial price of $52 to over $70 shortly after listing, highlighting strong demand.
• eToro’s focus on both traditional stocks and cryptocurrency trading has positioned it favorably against competitors like Robinhood.

Key Insights:

• Strong IPO performances signal increased market confidence and appetite for new listings.
• The crypto sector is gaining validation, potentially paving the way for more crypto-centric IPOs.

8. Energy Sector Outlook

Bryn Talkington provides a cautious perspective on the energy sector:

"Oil stocks will continue to struggle overall this year... administration wants oil prices down." ([44:36])

Key Insights:

• Government policies aiming to lower oil prices present headwinds for traditional energy stocks.
• Investors may prefer energy companies with high dividend yields amid volatile oil prices.

9. Closing Thoughts and Final Trades

As the episode wraps up, panelists discuss final stock picks and strategies:

• Steve Weiss remains bullish on UnitedHealth, despite recent downgrades, viewing it as a value opportunity.
• Jason Snipe highlights AutoZone for its resilient earnings and strategic positioning in the automotive aftermarket.
• Joe Taranova emphasizes holding positions like Alibaba and Zoom Communications, anticipating strong earnings and continued growth.

Key Insights:

• Diversification across sectors remains crucial as the market navigates potential economic headwinds.
• Strategic buying and selling based on technical indicators and fundamental analysis continue to guide investment decisions.

Notable Quotes

• Joe Taranova ([02:05]): "Defense is off the field. And now here comes the opposite offense."
• Steve Weiss ([05:00]): "Selling them at the highs... and buying them back down."
• Jason Snipe ([07:07]): "This has been a boost and this has been a boost from the news from Saudis yesterday."
• Bryn Talkington ([10:07]): "Monster numbers still coming out of Nvidia. And I think Jensen will delight investors."

Conclusion

This episode of Halftime Report offers a comprehensive analysis of the current market landscape, emphasizing a strategic shift towards offensive plays in growth sectors like semiconductors and AI. With expert insights into varied sectors—from private equity and financials to retail and energy—the panel provides listeners with actionable strategies to navigate the path to new market highs. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or new to the market, the discussions offer valuable perspectives to inform your investment decisions.

Transcript

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[Scott Wapner]

I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thank you very much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, the run to new highs. How soon the S and P might get there, we'll ask the investment committee, of course, and they're making some new moves in this market as well. We'll tell you about them. Joining me for the hour, Joe Taranova, Steve Weiss, Jason Snipe and Bryn Talkington. We'll check the markets. Bit of a mixed picture. Nasdaq's been the show this week and it remains that way. We are green there. S and P is good for a little bit and the Dow is fighting it out as well. Joe, I got today the vix, fastest round trip from panic to calm ever. That's according to bespoke. We're just above 18 there. Tom Lee says risk reward for stocks is better today than February of 25. That's the old high. JP Morgan says US equities escape from a black hole. And Belsky of BMO says the bull market's alive and well.

[Joe Taranova]

You agree the momentum in the near term points towards a run at the all time highs for sure. We're in the middle of May. The buyback window now opens. We're past CPI. You have the 90 day pause. What does that allow? That allows the main headline to be about the tax bill. And most importantly, you now have had a change of possession, if you would in the market. And the change of possession is defense is off the field. And now here comes the oppos offense. And that's exactly what I'm seeing in front of me. So the defensive plays, if you look at financials, insurance companies, progressive Chubb Travelers, we talked about those for the last three months. Places to hide out, Staples, and you fall down. Take a look at McDonald's over the last several days, Philip Morris. So it's very Costco, Wal Mart, very clear to me that this change of possession is now favoring the semiconductors, it's favoring the Magnificent Seven, it's favoring the companies that were somewhat unloved. And what that allows for is a rebuilding of positioning and it works off some of the bearish sentiment that was prevalent just one week ago.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Bryn, how do you see it here in the, in the face of the context of, you know, the commentary that I brought and then Joe as well. Do you feel like we are in a new environment now, that you need to play more offense and less defense?

[Bryn Talkington]

I think we're now in this known environment and I think that's where, you know, Tom Lee talking about the setup today is better than February because in February we did not know what was about to hit us. And I think that the White House and the markets needed some quick wins after the chaos of the Liberation Day roll out. And you know, what was resistance at the 200 day of 5750 is now going to be firm support. And so I think the move that we have a 90 day reprieve between the US and China. Those talks are going fine, as we all hear. I think that makes room for, to Joe's point, the semis which have been so beaten up to continue to run. I think other areas though are starting to get frothy and we'll get into some of the names later, but I think is a bunch of names of Palantir, Tesla, Robinhood, Hims, Iowa and Q. That really looks somewhat parabolic after this move of the last month. So I think from those companies, I think the returns should be somewhat limited, but I think the broadening out will continue and names like the financial asset managers, etc. Can continue to run.

[Scott Wapner]

Weiss, you had been playing max defense for a while, but your moves today are very much representative of the chain. The change in tone and tenor of the market, what Joe was talking about, time to play a little more offense. You bought back Amazon and Nvidia, sold them not that long ago. I guess in late April you were out of both those names. Now you're in again.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, actually the timing on the purchase was April 25th and May 1st. So I've been in for, for a few weeks. The sale of those was earlier the most Recent sale though was, was Amazon. And look, it's been a great trading market. I haven't touched my, my core names of Meta, Microsoft, lidos, Taiwan, Semi, etc. Netflix. In fact I've added those during period. But it was a great opportunity to make money in the market and I did just that. So I didn't catch the rally at the beginning by any stretch but selling them at the highs that they just some got back to, some didn't and buying them back down, not lows, but quite near is how traders make money in the market.

[Scott Wapner]

Why she didn't tell us about this yesterday? Why did you tell us about it yesterday? I did Whisper to you April 25 to May 1, you bought back Amazon and Nvidia.

[Steve Weiss]

Right?

[Scott Wapner]

You whispered it to me when I.

[Steve Weiss]

Told you while you were on set and you said wait, I'm listening to Kevin. I also mentioned it to the others yesterday.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, so the point is you're ready to play more offense.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, as I said, I've been safe last week. I'm pretty fully invested now. So I am. Look, a lot's going to depend on what happens after the 90 day window closes. And what we've seen is that there's completely almost a complete give up on the tariff moves wisely that Trump initiated. And so we're now down to about a base case of 10%. I think that will continue. But there's always the, the unsure ness of what the administration's doing. So you still have to be cautious in the market.

[Scott Wapner]

I mean Nvidia is back above its 200 day for the first long term hold since February. It's back above 3 trillion in market cap. It's bigger than Apple again. It's really been a remarkable comeback. Can we get a one month rather than an intraday guys, please to show you the bounce back in this stock which was under 90 bucks and we were questioning whether this stock story was done for a bit and it's had this really remarkable rally back. Jason Snipe, what do you make of that move that we've seen in Nvidia?

[Jason Snipe]

Yeah, no, it's been super interesting. Obviously the stock is back to flat for the year. It's up 20% in the last month. I think there was a lot of concerns, you know, early part of first quarter about export controls and what that was, how that was going to play out for the stock concerns around China. What's going on there? Obviously we heard yesterday the investment from the Middle east and I think that's going to be powerful. For the name. I think if you go back to their last report, you know they talked about $1 trillion in capex over the next few years to build out, you know, AI factories. So the story hasn't changed so much in terms of their toll, their pole position as far as AI is concerned. But this has been a boost and this has been a boost from the news from Saudis yesterday.

[Scott Wapner]

5 day win streak for NAS highest level since February as well. You look, you know, Nasdaq's gotten back above 19K. You want to say something?

[Joe Taranova]

I sure do. If we can, can we get a one year chart of Microsoft? Because you and I have spoken about first in, first out. Take the mag 7. Which of the mag 7 is closest to making a new all time high? It's Microsoft. It's a great example of when we talk about rebuilding position and reversing the bearish sentiment. Arguably Microsoft was that one Mag 7 name that had the most bearish sentiment and the weakest positioning coming into the year.

[Steve Weiss]

See, I don't think that Microsoft actually deserves the valuations that right now and I own it, I'm not going to sell it. But I think that you get through this, this go go period and there's been a ton of short covering if you look the prime brokerage reports that have driven this rally, that you'll have the same concerns about Microsoft which is the growth and the multiple on it. And I think that we've gotten back to what were excessive multiples at the end of last year.

[Scott Wapner]

What's the forward? What is the forward? Now guys, can you pull this up too for me please? The forward P E on Microsoft now because again the stock had underperformed it, it didn't do anything. So there you're 31, 31 times. I don't think you're at the high, but you're not that far off either.

[Steve Weiss]

30S. You're right, you're not that far in terms of any Nvidia. It has changed while it sells the pole position and I'm out as it gets to 140, which is where resistance was before because you're actually seeing the chips that the big hyperscalers have been working on for years to remove their dependence on video coming into the market for their own data centers and their own technology servants, etc. So it has changed. You know where is going to be held with those kind of balance sheets those companies have? They're not going to be held hostage to Nvidia super pricing forever, friend.

[Scott Wapner]

The chips are ripping today. If you look at many of the stocks, by the way. We always talk about the estimates. You can look up the stocks. It's up nearly 50% off of its April intraday low. The SMH is now positive year to date by 1 1/2% five days in a row. That's the first time since February. February, is that trade back?

[Bryn Talkington]

I think parts of the trade are back. I think amd, you know, which, which I don't own, has been left for dead. I think, you know, Lisa sue is great. And so I think parts of it because we were at this like existential cliff that, you know, Jensen went to Washington numerous times. He was just in Saudi about hey, if we shut off China, we are shutting off innovation to America. And I think that's where the White House repealed the diffusion rule which was supposed to go into effect this week, which would have made so many more export controls over a host of countries in addition to China and Russia. And so I think there was a timeout here. We are literally on the precipice of destroying this innovation. And so I think the rally is warranted. A lot of these stocks have just been left for dead. And so we are going to have more of a globalist America innovation win win scenario. I think especially in video, which earnings, don't forget, haven't come out yet. They come out May 26. I think they're still looking for 65 and 50% revenue and earnings growth. So just monster numbers still coming out of Nvidia. And I think Jensen will delight investors. So I think going into those Nvidia earnings, the whole sector I think will continue to rally.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, I mean AMD has been rallying. They had much better than expected earnings. They announced a buyback. Joe's talking about the buyback window being open. They just ran through it. $6 billion, their best day for AMD since April 9th of 25. Really, you know, before this massive move back. What do you think about that?

[Joe Taranova]

So I think tomorrow really important earnings report from Applied Materials again that was, we'll call it a hedge fund VIP type of name you could include in their LAM Research and KLA Corp, which we had in the ETF for the better part of the last five years and we just actually liquidated. When we did liquidated, I kind of looked at and said okay, we're just following price. We're not really exploring the true fundamentals. I think the fundamentals of these semi equipment name companies are still really, really good. And I think to Bren's point, now you have this change in the environment, change in tone, restoring back to what we expected the tariff rates to be at the beginning of the year. I think that works favorably and I really believe in this AI Halo story. The semi equipment names should be given the consideration equally to a lot of the other semi names themselves.

[Scott Wapner]

Jay, what about Amazon? I know we moved to semis, but I want to get your take here again. This five day rally chart looks great. And in terms of valuation, if you look at all the stocks in the group, UBS says the rebound in tech has more to go, that valuation is still reasonable. The risk reward remains attractive. Investors should continue to position for an ongoing recovery in quality globally.

[Jason Snipe]

Yeah, no, I really like the move here. I think there was a lot of concern coming into the quarter on retail, right? The macro has been the overhang. The tariff story has been the overhang. They had a blended return on retail of up 5.4% which is the best Q1 in the company's history. So I think that's important to note. US was obviously very strong margin. Growth is really strong, you know, since 2015. So I continue to like this stock. I think the other, the other concern was kind of third party sellers, what's going on there and the China impact and overhang. So it's been a nice run. Retail is strong. I think they continue to grow market share which is very positive for a stock like this. So I continue to like it. I think it's warrant, warrants some continued buying here.

[Scott Wapner]

You long term now in Amazon, are you not long term in anything, Are you not committing like that?

[Steve Weiss]

What I put on, I mean I'm very long term in my core positions. Amazon.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, this is in a core position now.

[Steve Weiss]

No, this is not a core position now. And it never was one of my top positions. It was a sizable position. My core positions I just went through which are all, you know, 15% or so of the portfolio. So there's a lot of beta in the portfolio that cuts both ways, right? Market trades down significantly, you take a big hit. Market trades up, you go up more than the market. Amazon, look, I like it. It's never cheap. My stuff, my concerns still are on the cloud. And a slowdown in enterprise spending. I don't think you're out of the woods right now. I just don't think CEOs have the confidence to all of a sudden, okay, it's open season again. Let's deploy billions of dollars. Let's build out everything in the world that we want to build out. I just don't think they're there yet under the present administration. So they need to see these tariffs take hold and they need to see what the tax bill says. Also, you can change that dramatically if you were able to deduct your capital expenditures in your first year as an expense.

[Joe Taranova]

Hearing your thoughts at the top of the show, I obviously look at things from the lens of, okay, where are technicals, where is price? And then let's observe fundamentals as well. Your primary focus is doing, you know, the hard work, the pencil work on what the fundamental fundamentals look like. What's the inflection point going to be for you to where you say to yourself, okay, this short term focus where I have on let's be in the market, let's, let's buy the market, no cash, I'm long. What do you think is going to be that inflection point that you're going to look for?

[Steve Weiss]

Again, understand my portfolio, 75% of my portfolio is long term that I've owned for years and years and years. Okay. The other 25% and above that in terms of when I hedge out and I've got to hedge out more than 100%. Right. Take care of the beta. That's where I play around with. So the inflection point is when sanity returns. I don't know if it does, but right now you've got a hostile environment to planning when you just don't know what's going to occur. We still don't know what's going to happen with defense companies. Right. They're still working on it. We don't know how much they'll cut back. We don't know where the spending is going to go. It's irrational. Right. And that's true across sectors. Health care, how do you make investments in health care? We'll talk about one later on. You know, if they get completely destroyed, then sort of you've got that safety net of valuation. But other than that, you know, it's, you know, Trump's view is, and he said this to put your, your people on the other side of the table offsides. Right. To make them nervous, to make them unsteady, not knowing what you do. Well, the downside of that is also you're also making your partners and the companies in the US unsteady because why should they be able to have clarity when the vocal messages, they can't. So when that returns or I get, or it gets de risked, then I'll go in for the rest.

[Scott Wapner]

Cisco is tonight after the bell. You own that stock. Just buttoning up the whole.

[Joe Taranova]

That's a more recent purchase. We bought it at the end of April. We're in at 58 so we have a small profit on it. The story has been a good spot story and they had a blowout quarter in February and they spoke to the effect of that networking was really strong. I think management kind of got ahead of the effect of tariffs. They embedded it already in their comments, if you would. So tonight I think what's important is let's see year on year revenue growth come in in that sweet spot somewhere around 12, 13, 14%. That'll indicate it's a good report. Let's also hear management speak confidently as they did at the previous earnings call where they're saying, okay, we believe the tariffs will be manageable on the business.

[Scott Wapner]

By the way, you probably saw the report just before we came on the air. The IPO up at the Nasdaq Etoro Group, we're still waiting on the first trade and we're going to bring that to you as soon as we get it. You saw the report from Tenay McKeel. Looking at it up there, it just brings to mind what's happening or basically what hasn't been happening in the IPO market. Yes, you've had a few chime by the way, has filed for an IPO with the NASDAQ as well. We started to wonder, okay, well maybe now this is the moment has some of the fog or at least enough of it lifted that you can have some good IPO activity. Goldman's trading like it six straight days up. Some of the other financials too. Some of the private equity names Brin like KKR getting upgraded today and those stocks have looked better as well ever since we had the rollback of these tariffs on China. And all of a sudden it felt like it was time to play a little offense.

[Bryn Talkington]

Yeah, I bought the stock in Apollo twice. Once before Liberation Day, then once after that. And I think that this is a really, I think a levered way to play the economy globally as well as the asset managers management firms. I think that these private public vehicles are supposedly going into 401ks. You know, these companies continue just to dominate their incentive and management fee. If you look at the earnings of both Apollo and kkr. So I think this is a really good way. They're still down for the year and so I think this is a really good way to own the private equity firms instead of buying private equity by the publicly traded companies where you actually have liquidity and you will also benefit from the Management incentive fees instead of paying them if you're investing directly into the funds.

[Scott Wapner]

Jay Apollo, Blackstone, Goldman as well.

[Jason Snipe]

Yeah, 100%, I think. Apollo. You know, when I look at the last quarter and you think about the macro overhang, first of all, the fee business was up 18%. They raised $43 billion this quarter, which was a record quarter for them. They had 84 billion that was deployed as well, which I think is healthy. So when I think about the macro and kind of the clouds that you alluded to earlier, it might not really open up till 2026, but this is the time that you get in.

[Joe Taranova]

It's just now we hold all of these names.

[Scott Wapner]

Private equity, Goldman, Apollo. What else you got?

[Joe Taranova]

More recently, we purchased KKR personally. Personally, I own Morgan Stanley. American Express is trading very well. Jimmy labenthal, if you're watching Citigroup is trading really well. It's big Jimmy Happy. He'll be bank of America. You have bank of America, right? Bank of America trading, really. You know, the amazing part of it is we're sitting on the desk the last several months and I keep saying, oh, anything related to trading is going to be good in 2025, right? Well, okay, since Monday, guess what? CBOE, CME, ICE all down consecutively each of the last several days. So candidly, I take the other side of that to your point, because I think the volatility is going to return at some point. I think owning CME makes a lot of sense.

[Steve Weiss]

If you go back to the conversation last year when, when things were a little steadier, you know, not great leadership at the White House, but nonetheless, the markets were pretty buoyant and the economy is doing quite well, and we didn't have an IPO cycle. So everybody, the bankers I spoke to, bankers everybody spoke to were saying mid 25. And then as we got towards the end of the year, mid to late 25, here we are, you know, back it with the market nearly at the levels they were last year. And we're waiting. We're on the cusp, according to what I'm hearing of an IPO cycle, I don't see it that way. I still think that it's going to take a little bit of time. However, owning Apollo, owning kkr, it's only a matter of time when they really click in for being able to liquidate some of their positions and being able to do it either through a transaction, private transaction, or, or an ipo. So I think the good position to my play, of course, is Goldman. That's also A core position of me because they just benefit from all of the above.

[Scott Wapner]

Joe, you mentioned the CME Group and we're talking financials. Interactive Brokers is one of the better performers since the April 8th low. It's up 38% since that time.

[Joe Taranova]

So that is one of my better purchases that I've made in the last month or so along with with Amazon. If I could give you one of my purchases, one of my stuff sales right now, it relates to that environment, that would be the tlt. So Scott just saw.

[Scott Wapner]

Oh, you're totally out of.

[Joe Taranova]

Right, I'm totally out of the tlt. So at the time where I was buying Interactive Brokers, at the time where I was buying Amazon, I was also accumulating tlt and it was on the belief that yields were going to continue to push lower. March 24th I took the initial position. The 10 year was at 435. 10 year fell to 390. I did nothing because I felt like fundamentally I couldn't do anything. Given the environment we're in, I thought that we'd see yields push towards 3.5. Oh, now you've got a 10 year at 4.5. I can't sit with the position anymore. Taking the loss. It's a 2.8% loss.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, we are going to take a break. When we come back, we'll do our calls of the day. And we have several more moves to get to as well. See after this break.

[Janice Henderson]

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[Scott Wapner]

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Use Code SXMPodcast to check out. All right, we're back. Breaking news because we do have the first trade in Etoro at the Nasdaq that where Christina Parts and Nebulous is watching it tell us.

[Christina Parts Nevels]

We're seeing Etoro pricing at just a little bit above 70 bucks right now. 72, I should say. Wow, it's moving quite a bit after setting initial share pricing at 52 bucks which was significantly above its earlier projected range. This is an Israeli backed retail trading platform and its successful market entry really comes after multiple delayed attempts. First we have failed SPAC deals back in 2021 and 2022 and then they postponed a March listing as well due to tariff uncertainties which we saw similarly with Klarna as well as StubHub. But this platform really upsizes offering just last night bringing over 11 million shares to market from both the company and existing shareholders. A bullish signal that demand remains strong despite earlier setbacks. As a direct competitor of Robinhood, Etoro's trading platform really spends both traditional stocks and cryptocurrency with Crypto contributing approximately 25% of its net trading revenue last year. Thanks to my colleague Taneya for that. This successful debut isn't just positive for the broader IPO but market, but specifically validates the crypto sector, potentially opening floodgates for more crypto exposed public offerings. Etoro's NASDAQ debut, as you can see on your screen, is under the symbol etor. May serve as a real critical barometer for public market risk appetite. The pipeline already filling up. Digital physical therapy provider Hinge Health launched its IPO roadshow with plans to raise about $437 million while fintech heavyweight Chime filed its SEC prospectus on Tuesday. Should be listing on the NASDAQ. EToro, look at that 73 buck range. And the CEO will be on squawk box first tomorrow at 7:10am Eastern. Scott okay.

[Scott Wapner]

All right Christina, thank you. So far so good for that offering. We'll track it throughout the remainder of the day. Christina, parts nebulous. All right, some calls of the day. We start with Robinhood today. Brin Goldman upping their estimates. They reiterate their buy rating. Their price range target goes to 64 from 56. What do we think about this name? I think you still like it. It's trying for seven straight days of gains.

[Bryn Talkington]

Yeah, I still own it. It's just been on a monster move. If you pull up a probably like a 10 day, two week chart, it's gone from basically 48 to 62 here. So I think Goldman's just following price. I think if you look at the chart being that it does look parabolic, I think this is very overbought right now. I would definitely not be adding to the position and I actually had sold some calls at 50 which expire next Friday. So that position I'm sure will get called away. I will continue to buy this name on weakness when it pulls back down, maybe even to the 50 day. But right here it looks really overbought. So I'd be careful adding new positions if you haven't owned it before.

[Scott Wapner]

A number of downgrades today for UnitedHealth. Obviously a stock that's been in the news a lot lately and for the wrong reasons because it's been down a tremendous amount of late. There's their chart. You can back that out to back it out a little bit further, please. B of A cuts it to neutral. Ray J cuts it to perform. Morgan Stanley, they reiterated as overweight. The shares are down 70, 17% this week alone. But. But over year to date you can see very clearly really from the earnings. So you were with us yesterday and said for the meantime you're hanging in. You actually bought more.

[Steve Weiss]

I did. And the reason I bought more is what you see on the screen, which is that it was cut. It was cut by a lot of firms, which doesn't make a lot of sense because the guessing is that you're going to be trading at about 13 times earnings this year and a similar number next year growth supposed to return next year. That's speculation. Of course the company pulled their guidance. So I don't recall the last time I've seen UnitedHealth at that kind of multiple. So. So I still have room to add because I'm not sure this is the absolute bottom. But you can't pick sentiment any worse than what you have right now, as again evidenced in stock performance and in the downgrades. So that's why I was comfortable adding a little bit too it. And I have confidence Steve Hemsley and John Rex at the company to write the ship.

[Scott Wapner]

Vertex. You sold that?

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, and yesterday I came on. I was also uncertain about that. Look, health care is pretty tough. I have no idea what's going to happen. Drug Pricing. You know, I am a big fan of importing drugs. I don't know why the US subsidize the rest of the world. So I think there's some ground that'll hurt them. And I just don't think, you know, there's, there's an appetite to buy pharma here. So, so I'm staying on on the sidelines at this point.

[Scott Wapner]

Abbie got downgraded. It's been a pretty favorite stock on, on our, with our investment committee. Multiple people own it. Jason, you do today. Target gets cut and it gets downgraded.

[Steve Weiss]

By the way, just one more thing. I was down about 15% in Verdex, so it wasn't a free situation.

[Jason Snipe]

Right? Yeah. So for Advi, obviously it's been a consistent earnings player. I mean it's flat for the year now. It's up about 1% in the last month. You know, we'll see what happens with this prescription cost news. I think for me as it relates to them individually as a name, you know, the pipeline is really strong. Rinvoak and Skyrizi have continued to do really well and move away from Humira which is now has biosimilar opportunities. So for me, I continue to like this stock will consider, we'll continue to evaluate how the macro unfolds but this is a coordinate for us.

[Scott Wapner]

What about Lowe's telling Halsey is cautious into the earnings print still. You still own it?

[Jason Snipe]

I still, yeah, I definitely still own it. So for me as it relates to kind of a lot of the home improvement stocks, obviously the 10 year, you see what's going on there. Yields continue to rise. That's, that's definitely going to be an overhang for that marketplace as mobility is, is limited, you know, in this environment. But I like where they are in terms of their spacing. They continue to grow market share in the pro segment. So I continue to, to like this name. I think it might, this print might be a little bit muddy, but I think going forward, you know, there's some opportunity.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, the headlines now with Silvana Hannah. Hi Silvana. Hey, Scott.

[Silvana Hannah]

Good afternoon. U.S. special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff said today he and Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Turkey on Friday for Russia Ukraine talks. But President Trump said today he's considering whether to attend as well and was unsure if Russian President Vladimir Put Putin will personally attend the talks. Overdose Deaths in the US fell 27% last year, the largest one year decline ever recorded. That's according to provisional data the CDC released today, 80,000 people died from overdoses. That's down from 110,000 in 2023. All but two states saw declines last year, with some of the biggest drops in states including Ohio and West Virginia, which have been hard hit in the overdose epidemic. And Sony says it's considering raising prices on its popular PlayStation 5 to cover the impact of President Trump's tariffs. Much of the console's hardware is manufactured in China, and game consoles, while those were not included in the electronics exemptions for the tariffs, Sony said it's also considering moving manufacturing to the US to mitigate the impact. Scott, I'll send it back to you.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Silvana. Thank you, Silvana. Now coming up, the setup on Walmart and we'll get the committee's take on other retail names next.

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[Scott Wapner]

Your dermatologist about cosenty.

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[Scott Wapner]

All right. The setup Walmart. It is 8% off its year high. Joe you on the stock. So this was like the one of one of the places to be okay until it apparently wasn't. It's on track for its fifth negative week of the Last ten. Can we see the chart again? What period of time? Wider please.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, there we go.

[Scott Wapner]

There you go. Right, so it's like goes, goes up, climbs the hill. Good place to be. Can we be more defensive? We're worried about a recession. We got tariffs, blah, blah, blah.

[Joe Taranova]

Okay.

[Scott Wapner]

Get a rollback and then the stock's like, okay, see you.

[Joe Taranova]

Okay. So while I'm speaking, if we could roll it back six months, what you're going to find is you're going to see the all time high. Back in February, this is one of the most important stocks in the market. Monday we did a, we did, we did, we had a conversation surrounding JP Morgan and the possibility that it could be a trillion dollar company. Analysts wrote a note on it. How about Walmart being a trillion dollar company? Because I believe that's exactly where they're going, going after the all time high. In February they reported earnings and the earnings there was a little bit of uncomfortable, uncomfortableness on the part of the shareholders because you had elevated capital spending. But the elevated capital spending is to invest, to compete against Amazon. They are going after Amazon's market share in E Commerce. Yes, they're, they're clearly way behind in that regard. But they have proven that they can capture market share. They did it in grocery. Okay. So they have the ability to cap that market share. So the spend that they're doing now is going to be to their benefit in the long run. Temper your expectations on what you're going to hear in the next quarter. But I believe this is a core long term holding and this is a trillion dollar company.

[Scott Wapner]

What about TJX outperformed today? A reiteration at Telsey price target 145. This is another stock that was looked at as being in the sweet spot.

[Joe Taranova]

And it really hasn't had the significant pullback that Wal Mart.

[Scott Wapner]

Look at that climb up from, from March 100%.

[Joe Taranova]

This stock does not get enough respect. It's, it's literally I think three times or four times the size of Target. But yet that's all everyone wants to talk about. Target, they have a very diversified model in discretionary and they are able to execute on that. In retail the traffic remains strong. Again, I think if you're looking at off price and you're looking at a conglomerate, this is the name that you want to own.

[Scott Wapner]

Bryn, I'm wondering how you feel about your Nike purchase. Right. You had the guts to buy it when no one liked it and many may still hate it. But the detente, if you want to call it that with China, does it make you more optimistic or not? Just not thinking about it in that sense yet.

[Bryn Talkington]

I'm not thinking about it in that sense. I bought it the same time I bought Restoration Hardware. And just to go back, I bought it because they have 500,000 employees in Vietnam. And I felt really, really solid that Howard Lutnick was saying we're all going to make iPhones and make shoes was never going to happen. And so really it was just a trade off of that. We'll see where it gets to resistance. I'll sell the name just because I don't have a viewpoint. Fundamentally, just like Restoration, I'm sure gets called away from me next week. But I think it's a good reminder of that. You know, when volatility presents itself, just you don't have to read the article or the news headlines that day. You need to look out a month or two months and think that the world will be different. I think Nike and Restoration Hardware were good examples of that.

[Scott Wapner]

Chase, we talked about Lowe's, you have Proctor, right. So another one that seemed to be a good place to be. Right. Staples not loved right now. You got autozone too. What about that?

[Jason Snipe]

Yeah, autozone has had a really strong year. I think my concern early on with it with the macro and the tariff concern is kind of assembly. A lot of their assembly goes on in Mexico and what the, what the cost of their parts would be, you know, for, for vehicles. But they have been an earnings compounder. They have been resilient. And I do think folks are continuing as well as car prices are starting to come down. We did see that in the, in the CPI print yesterday. Folks are still focused on keeping their cars on the road for longer and autozone is right in that traffic.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, we'll take a quick break. We'll come back with Santoli and his midday work. All right, we're back. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joins us now with his midday word talk of baseball. Or you want to talk to market?

[J]

We can first talk to Marcus if we get the baseball. I'm always ready for baseball. But look, I mean this is kind of benign if you're going to just digest this big move. I do think a couple of things you want to take note of we talked about at the close yesterday, Scott, volatility stopped coming down even though the market's really calm. So is that people bracing for something or just watching the bond market and watching yields push higher? I know Joe was talking about the tlt. That's right in its you know, one year lows, close to two year lows.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah. That's why it's from it.

[J]

We're sort of trying to see if that, if that's really telling us anything in terms of a message besides taking out expected Fed rate cuts and that the economy is okay. So I think those are two things you want to have an awareness of as you, as you figure out also what this tech trade is starting.

[Scott Wapner]

It's going to be interesting, you know, as we are getting closer to what we think is the finish line, at least of a markup of the, the bill on the Hill.

[J]

Yes.

[Scott Wapner]

Whether that move right there was not that one, but the, the bond market move, the 10 to 30 year you can throw up is related more to that than anything else because the price tag of that continues to go up.

[J]

Right. We've gone from, hey, we're going to have to deal with, you know, fiscal constraint as well as tariffs and now all of a sudden tariffs rolling back. And it's not looking like any fiscal constraint in this bill. I'm really hesitant to draw a direct line between deficit and treasury supply to today's bond market action. But it absolutely seems to have the bond market's attention at this point. And you know, we'll see, you know, we, the 30 year bumping up against 5% again, we'll see if that trips anything else or if it's just again, a matter of risk on again.

[Scott Wapner]

What do you make of this? Speaking of risk on again, it certainly seems to be related to Nvidia. One heck of a comeback as we showed, you know, a stock that looked like okay, maybe this thing's in a timeout for a good, good amount of time. Not so much. Well, rallied back hard.

[J]

I guess you could say it's been in a timeout for 11 plus months because we kind of got to these prices for the first time back then May and June of last year and people have just grabbed for the favorites again. So you're seeing the runs in Tesla, Robinhood, Nvidia, Palantir. Whether that's smart or whether that just means, hey, this is where the flow is headed, I don't know. But at least within video you have a little bit of rolling forward to next year's estimates and it feels like there's some basis there. And the valuations moderated quite a bit.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah. I mean here we go running again into the print.

[J]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

Which will be interesting for a bar that they may now have to live up to, which is a little bit higher. I mean it's always high, but you never know what that means. Mike, thanks. I'll see you on closing bell. Mike Santoli, by the way, a programming note for you. Our friends at Fast Money we've been telling you about about this. They're holding a get together on June 5 up at the Nasdaq and you can grab a front row seat and watch that program live. To order a ticket you can scan the QR code on your screen or you can go to cnbc events.com fastmoney coming up, got more committee stocks on the move today, including Alibaba ahead of its earnings. Joe owns it. We'll debate it next. All right. Welcome back. Alibaba is on the move today. Morgan Stanley says it's a China AI enabler. I don't know if that's groundbreaking commentary or not, but nonetheless they do report their earnings tomorrow before the bell. What do you think, Joe?

[Joe Taranova]

Tell me something I don't already know. I think tomorrow's report should be a very strong one relative to where we were one year ago. Crowd cloud revenue coming in probably somewhere around 15 to 20% higher. The E commerce business much stronger, better place today than it was one year ago. So I'm maintaining the position. Let's see if it could take another run at that. All time high up at 148.

[Scott Wapner]

Reuters by the way is reporting that Alibaba selling the I iPhone 16s at a deep discount $351 versus the MSRP of 799 on the Apple website.

[Joe Taranova]

One year high by the way. One year high, not all time high. Sorry.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. No. China Internet.

[Steve Weiss]

China Internet I think is problematic now and keep in mind that I don't think it's going to happen now. But China has in the past threatened to take those variable interest entities which are only a right in the income stream, not ownership in the assets and pull them back into Hong Kong. So I don't see that short term but it's always a possibility bad things get there. So go try and trade on the Hong Kong exchange. Is everybody who can't own a stock trading on foreign exchange, meaning US Institutions.

[Scott Wapner]

Tries to sell reversal for new holdings. Joe, what's going on here?

[Joe Taranova]

There was concerns around their their ability to remain profitable. In fact, that's actually what they are South American based. This is digital banking. It's a name that is held in the etf. We've had it for the last several quarters.

[Scott Wapner]

Equity hitting a new 52 week high. The price target to 57. That's it. SWS they maintain their hold rating. And you personally own this name?

[Joe Taranova]

Owned it for quite some time now. This is a name that for many years I've traded in and out of both recently. It's one of the better holdings that I have. Mid-30s is where I entered it. It's more about the management of the business right now than it is about natural gas prices. Initially it was okay. I think natural gas prices move higher. In fact, that hasn't happened. Management's done a phenomenal job in execution.

[Scott Wapner]

Talk about a trade. Just while we're on it, Brin, what, what do we think now of, of energy? Just given, you know, oil seemed like it was on a one way ticket lower and now like everything else, it's had its own reversal. It's down a little bit today, but it's been a bunch. It's been up a bunch lately.

[Bryn Talkington]

I think, I think that oil, the oil stocks will continue to struggle overall this year. I just think that the administration has been really clear. They want oil prices down. We'll see what OPEC does. They continue to increase production but I do think the way to play it is the companies that have high distribution yields, whether it's a dividend yield or like a viper, which I own, which has a distribution yield plus a dividend. But it can just be one of those years where you're not going to get all time highs in these names because I just think there's too much weight of the administration wanting oil prices to be down.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, we'll take a break. Got finals on the other side.

[J]

Sam.

[Joe Taranova]

Are you following the Halftime Report podcast? What are you waiting for?

[Scott Wapner]

Look for us in your favorite podcasting app.

[Joe Taranova]

Follow the Halftime podcast now.

[Scott Wapner]

It's the 30th anniversary today of the Iris Zone conference in New York City. A fabulous event raising money for a great cause. Some of the best and brightest investors in the world show up and show out every year. I'll sit with a couple of them in a bit. I'm going to head uptown. David Einhorn, Jim Chanos joining me live on closing Bell Track the last hour of trade. We'll find out what their best ideas are this year and we will discuss the markets. As you can bet, Brin, final trade.

[Bryn Talkington]

Is what Apollo just popped above the 200 day strong fee related earnings. I think the stock can be in the 150s.

[Scott Wapner]

Thank you. Jason Snipe.

[Jason Snipe]

I like Goldman here is up 20% in the last month. Momentum is the stock.

[Steve Weiss]

Steve Weiss, Taiwan Semi. Look, they had a phenomenal quarter. It's coming back. I think it still goes higher.

[Scott Wapner]

All right. And Joe, you must be Zoom Communications. Why are you picking that today?

[Joe Taranova]

Own it personally and own it in the etf. And by the way, Jimmy Leventhal is happy we mentioned him in Citigroup. He's all happy.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, why did you have to mention it twice? Now you're pandering, love. I'll see you at the Stone Conference in just a bit. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live live, weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

[Ryan Reynolds]

All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer hey everybody.

[Scott Wapner]

Conan O' Brien here with an ad about my podcast. Conan O' Brien needs a friend.

[Jason Snipe]

I've had so many fantastic conversations with people I truly admire.

[Scott Wapner]

People like Michelle Obama, Bruce Springsteen, Maya Rudolph, Tom Hanks.

[Jason Snipe]

New episodes are out every Monday and.

[Scott Wapner]

We have a really good time. So subscribe and listen wherever you get your podcasts.