The Sell-The-Rip vs. Buy-The-Dip Debate 4/10/26

Summary

Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: The Sell-The-Rip vs. Buy-The-Dip Debate
Air Date: April 10, 2026
Host: Frank Holland (in for Scott Wapner)
Panel: Jim Leventhal, Bill Baruch, Kevin Simpson, Bryn Talkington

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Episode Overview

This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report focuses on the current crossroads facing investors: should you “sell-the-rip” (take profits after a rally) or “buy-the-dip” (add exposure on pullbacks)? With the S&P approaching its longest win streak this year, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and looming bank earnings, the panel debates market outlooks, key sector strategies, and hot stock calls as volatility and uncertainty continue to shape investor behavior.

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Key Segments & Insights

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1. Market Outlook: Have We Bottomed?

Timestamps: 01:15–04:51

• The S&P is challenging a seven-day win streak with mixed market action; concerns linger about whether the recent rally marks a true bottom.
• Jim Leventhal:
  • Cautions that the bottom correlates with the geopolitical peak—specifically in the Gulf.
  • “If we’ve seen the peak [in hostilities], then we are going higher through the rest of the year.” (02:16)
  • Stresses, “No one really knows, Frank.” (02:16)
• Bryn Talkington:
  • Emphasizes technical strength: “We’re 140 S&P points above the 200-day moving average… It’s a very constructive setup into earnings.” (03:35)
• Bill Baruch:
  • Sees positivity after a “pulse transition” in the market—Powell’s dovish comments on not hiking for an energy shock helped sentiment.
  • Notes S&P is still below average on forward earnings, allowing room to run.
  • “If your timeline is shorter, it’s good to be taking chips off… If your timeline is longer, the run still has legs.” (06:58)

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2. Volatility, Yields, and Earnings Setup

Timestamps: 04:51–08:56

• Panel agrees current volatility and yield levels are “benign” if they hold.
• Kevin Simpson:
  • Attributes relief rally to an “emotional shift” after the removal of dire geopolitical risks.
  • “If we keep yields anchored with oil down, it helps with inflation… Earnings are going to be great, but guidance matters more this quarter.” (08:01)

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3. Inflation, Oil, and Fed Policy

Timestamps: 09:22–15:13

• Recent CPI shows headline inflation sticky, mostly due to energy; core inflation remains contained.
• Jim Leventhal:
  • "There's just no way we're going back to $50–60 a barrel oil anytime soon... That will be with us for a while." (09:29)
  • Cautions rate cuts are off the table for now: “Inflation is keeping them from cutting rates.” (11:21)
  • Warns a Fed rate hike “would be catastrophic.” (11:21)
• Bill Baruch & Bryn Talkington:
  • Note bright spots in core goods/services inflation and subdued bond market reactions.
  • Bryn focuses on oil as a driver for sticky inflation, but is constructive as long as tech earnings and productivity trends are robust.

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4. Sector & Stock Rotation: Energy to Tech

Timestamps: 15:13–20:41

• Energy:
  • Large outflows from the sector since mid-2024.
  • Simpson trimmed Marathon Petroleum after a big run: “Just following an old thesis—sell high, buy low.” (15:30)
• Tech:
  • Adding to Apple and Microsoft on weakness.
  • Kevin Simpson:
    • Microsoft’s multiple “dropped from 27.5 down to close to 21; I think that’s a value.” (16:19)
    • Apple: “It’s a utility, a service company now… If they come out with a foldable device, cool. But really, it’s about Siri working.”
  • Bryn Talkington:
    • Apple praised for capex discipline: “They’re going to continue to be like a Costco, like a Walmart.”
    • Microsoft’s Copilot needs to show Azure growth: “If it comes in at 37 [percent], market trades down.”
    • “I still like Google over Microsoft for a multitude of reasons.” (19:24)

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5. Software, AI, and Cybersecurity

Timestamps: 20:41–26:30

• Kate Rooney Reports:
  • Powell and Treasury met with CEOs on AI-powered cybersecurity risks as Anthropic’s new model (Mythos) exposes thousands of major vulnerabilities.
• Cybersecurity stocks (BUG ETF) hit, with CrowdStrike and Palo Alto under pressure.
• Kevin Simpson & Bryn Talkington:
  • Defend cybersecurity sector as “market getting it wrong”—AI may disrupt, but strong names will adapt.
  • Palantir “still trading at nosebleed valuations” (25:19), and sector charts look shaky.
  • “Until you get some baseline where these stocks stop going down, it really is catching a falling knife.” (25:19)

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6. Preview: Big Bank Earnings

Timestamps: 28:28–31:13

• Kevin Simpson:
  • Bullish on Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan: “Bank stocks are going to have fantastic numbers next week... mergers, acquisitions, IPOs will drive performance.” (28:42)
• Jim Leventhal:
  • JPMorgan and Citi in focus; IPO pipeline and regulatory capital requirements are key for the sector. Citi now his favorite major bank.
  • “There is still a lot to like in the financial space.” (29:05)
• Bill Baruch:
  • JP Morgan is “best of breed,” emphasizes not to chase post-earnings jumps. (30:11)
• Kevin:
  • More tepid on Bank of America; prefers JPM and GS.

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7. Calls of the Day: Tesla, Uber, CME Group

Timestamps: 34:35–37:59

• Tesla:
  • Morgan Stanley’s bullish $415 price target.
  • Bryn: “Tesla and Waymo are closest to full self-driving. Optimus robot manufacturing could be a catalyst, but the stock needs to turn around.” (35:13)
• Uber:
  • Trimmed after recent underperformance. Needs another positive catalyst. (36:31)
• CME Group:
  • Cited for innovation, special dividend, and payout yield. (37:31)

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8. Healthcare & Biopharma: M&A and Devices

Timestamps: 37:59–41:23

• Morgan Stanley hikes price targets on key biopharma stocks (Vertex, Eli Lilly, Amgen) as M&A heats up.
• Panel Comments:
  • Vertex: “Earnings going higher; robust pipeline.” (38:47)
  • Lilly: Liked for “filling the pipeline behind just weight loss.” (39:21)
  • Amgen: Now benefiting after focus moved beyond GLP competitors.
• Medical Devices:
  • Intuitive Surgical maintained as long-term “compounder,” despite current volatility.
  • Jim: Prefers pharma for more stable earnings flow.

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9. Panel Portfolio Moves & Trade Ideas

Timestamps: 41:56–45:44

• Jim adds to BlackRock:
  • Long-term, bullish on recovery in assets under management.
• Netflix (upcoming earnings):
  • Kevin bullish: “They just raised prices… Netflix is in the top 5 things people can’t live without.” (43:18)
  • Bill: Needs to clear 105–106 for new highs post-earnings.
• Fastenal (Industrials):
  • Bill: “At an inflection point, but getting a bit overpriced.” (43:52)
• Pepsi:
  • Kevin: Consumer stretch could limit upside, “wouldn’t expect too much.”
• Metals Play (Agnico Eagle):
  • Kevin: Harvesting volatility with covered calls, “20% annualized option premium.” (44:55)
• BHP/Bryn:
  • Praises commodities diversification and better performance relative to retail-driven gold/silver.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “There’s just no way we’re going back to $50–60 a barrel oil anytime soon.” — Jim Leventhal (09:29)
• “The problem with the question is nobody really knows, Frank.” — Jim Leventhal (02:16)
• “We’re 140 S&P points above the 200-day moving average… it’s a very constructive setup.” — Bryn Talkington (03:35)
• “I think the market’s got it wrong [on cybersecurity].” — Kevin Simpson (23:09)
• “Tesla and Waymo… are the closest [to] literally achieving unsupervised full self-driving.” — Bryn Talkington (35:13)
• “If you think of things you can’t live without, Netflix is in the top five.” — Kevin Simpson (43:18)
• “This is not a call on earnings… This is a multi-year play with BlackRock.” — Jim Leventhal (41:56)

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Final Trades

Timestamps: 46:28–47:07

• Bryn: Capital One — “Bad stock year-to-date, great company, earnings a catalyst.”
• Kevin: Amazon — “US is accelerating, retail margins improving.”
• Bill: SLV (Silver ETF) — “China’s copper export ban impacts copper and silver.”
• Jim: Nvidia — “Post-earnings sell off is done, marching toward $200/share.”

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Conclusion

This episode covers a broad market crossroad: optimism fueled by strong earnings and technicals, offset by geopolitical risks and sticky inflation. The panel weighs both sides across stocks, sectors, and macro factors—emphasizing disciplined profit-taking, readiness to pivot, and watchfulness for catalysts. Bank earnings, tech rotation, software disruption, and metals volatility lead the agenda for investors into the next week.

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For active investors and market watchers, this is a must-hear debate that distills the tension and opportunity in today's market climate.

Transcript

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[D]

Thank you C Man Karl welcome to the Halftime Report. I am Frank Holland in for the judge. Scott Wapner front and center at this hour. The next move for the markets as the S and P attempts its longest win streak of this year. The investing committee is standing by to talk about that move and so much more. Joining me for the hour we have Jim Leventhal, Bill Baruch, Kevin Simpson and Bryn Talkington. But first let's get a quick check of the markets right now. You can see right now a bit of a mixed action. We're looking at the markets. The Dow pulling back more than 200 points down about a half a percent. The S and P down fractionally on pace to perhaps break that seven day win streak. The NASDAQ though still on pace up about a quarter of 1%. The Russell the Small Caps pulling back about a third third of 1%. Jim Lehmanthal, you're right here to my left. I'm going to start with you. A lot of talk about maybe we've already seen the bottom in this market despite the fact that it's only a two week cease fire and there's a lot of geopolitical questions out there for the markets. Are you viewing the seven day win streak for the S and P again under some jeopardy right now because we're fractionally lower. Do you see this as a Sign that we've already seen the bottom in the markets, they'll at least have steadier ground going forward.

[A]

Well, the correlation between whether we've seen the bottom or not ties to whether we've seen the peak in hostilities and this week the belie Tuesday that we have seen the peak in hostilities. But there is still doubt and those doubts are understandable. With the Strait of Hormuz still closed last I saw something like a dozen ships have transited in the last day or so, which is not a lot. And with Iran extracting tolls, that's eventually going to get I think enough under the President's skin that he's liable to pick up hostilities again. Now that doesn't mean we have to go back to the bottom of a couple of weeks ago. As long as we're not putting out their rhetoric about ending civilization and things like that, then the bottom is in. So I'm not, you know, the problem with the question is nobody really knows, Frank. Right. We just, there's just no way to know if the end of hostilities or rather the peak of hostilities is in place. If it is, the bottom's in. Now we can expect volatility and there will be, you know, there will be flare ups, Lebanon in Carg island, whatever. But if we've seen the peak, then we are going higher through the rest of the year.

[D]

So I want to bring that same question over to you. Also I want to add to it. Have we perhaps seen too much of a rally over these last seven days again the S and pulling back a bit, but the Nasdaq on pace for eight days of gains?

[C]

Yeah, well, I think that we think the bottom's in. I think from a technical perspective we're about 140 points above S&P points above the 200 day moving average. That is a very positive sign because nothing good happens below the 200 day. So what was resistance is now firmly support. And I actually think the market set up is quite constructive going into earnings. And so obviously we'll talk about banks later but I think the mega cap tech earnings, especially like the Microsoft and Google's will be very strong. And so I think we actually have a good setup. And so as long as we're above that 200 day, which we firmly are, I think that puts a really good set up. And obviously also yields I think have calmed down. And so to me those two things yields and above the tuner date going into earnings I think portends good things to the market over the short term.

[D]

Yeah, to your point by the way, the early reporters, very Strong showing. Only 4% of the S and P but again a strong showing. Let's talk about that set up for a bit. Bill, I'm going to come over to you. Btig Jonathan Krinsky out with a note saying the the S and P is up for its seventh consecutive day. This has happened 31 times since 2003. A pause or pullback on Friday wouldn't be surprising. We may be seeing that right now. But he goes on to say 20 day returns are quite positive following these streaks. So is this a really positive setup despite the action today?

[B]

Yeah, I think it's very positive. I've been fairly bullish over the past week since that low on Monday. I think there's been definitely a transition for how the, the pulse of the market in general. We heard from Powell last Monday that, that they're not going to look to be hiking rates on an energy shock. I think the market really like that from a fundamental basis. The S and P was trading at 19 times earnings below. So that's below its average. You know, I think too you got to look at some of the panic that did take place now. It was an extreme panic but the Vix did get to 30 and I think that's, that's a, helps to bring it, bring a bit of a turning point. So I think the pulse of the market, even as the news flow some days it deteriorated. The market was still able to kind of move, move higher. I think it's looking at incrementally improvement from where it was over the last weekend or where it was two weekends ago. But the market itself does know on Friday what question marks can happen over the weekend. And the weekend has been where some deterioration and, and whether it be ceasefire talks or progress has happened. So I wouldn't be surprised to see a little bit of profit taking here. I remain very bullish at this level. I'm watching most closely the S and P June futures have the highest 200 day moving average. It's just the way this, this is constructed. So right around 6,800 I don't want to see it close below there today it's about 1% away, let's call it. So I don't want to see anything bad happen that before the end of the day that would be difficult. But to play devil's advocate, you know, I think, you know, you look at everything the market has digested the earnings that are coming, the bar is beginning to be set pretty, pretty high. It's becoming to be that this is going to be the savior and the market's going to run away. And so to play devil's advocate, you know, I think we can, you know, we may not really go anywhere. Given that it's the second year of a, of a presidential cycle with the midterms coming down the pipeline, I think that we could see this continue higher. But, but I'm not going to get overly bullish that we're going to break out record highs and keep going, you

[D]

know, but you're taking both sides of the argument. By the way, you made an argument that you played the devil's advocate on your.

[A]

So very lot of uncertainty there certainly

[D]

a lot of uncertainty. So I'm giving you some grace. But you said there might be some profit taking. Would you take some profit today? Are you thinking there might be more volatility after today?

[B]

Well, from a trading perspective, you know, I trade futures. You know, we've trimmed a little bit on this run up of what we've had in our portfolio. On the futures side, we, we haven't looked to be trimming wealth portfolios and the active managed securities portfolios at this level. I think we can continue to go higher from way I'm looking at it is short term. If you're, if your timeline is shorter, yeah, it's good to be taking some chips off the table. If your timeline is longer. I think the run here still has legs. You want to look for some sort of deterioration or confirmation that we roll back over before you start to panic again. But again with that said, I'm just saying the bar is getting be set pretty high for what the earnings to come are. And that does worry me. But it also just kind of defines that the second year of a cycle we may not really go anywhere until the end of the year. And we could, we could see this run go up to 70, 100, 70, 200, but not really continue to extend from there. So I want the expectations to be tapered.

[D]

All right. Before Bill Playdell's advocate, he hit on something else. Bond yields in the 10 year about 4.3. The Vix at about 20. He seemed to think it was pretty benign. Do you agree with that? Is the setup pretty good going forward? If we can keep things at this level with both the VIX and yields.

[E]

Yeah, and I think your caveat is the linchpin of the whole story because even at 30, the Vix hadn't capitulated too much. We saw a massive sell off and thankfully there's been a tremendous relief rally this week. And I think the important part, Frank, is that there was an emotional shift. You can almost feel it that things were, were so bad, potentially like the worst possible geopolitical outcome that could have happened. Removing that from the table no matter what happens over the weekend. And we'll certainly see headlines about the cease fire. Cease fires early on are typically fraught with some problems and challenges but I would say the setup is pretty good. And the reason that yields are down, Frank, has a lot to do with oil. Take the pressure off oil. Take the pressure off interest rates also helps with inflation which again continues to be the thing that I'm focused on most. I think earnings are going to be great. We have to look at the guidance. I think that's going to be a lot more important this quarter than perhaps it has been. But they're going to be excellent. And I can't wait to get talking about actual earnings.

[D]

So Scott, yesterday he talked to Michael Hardnett from B of A. He kind of said the pre war playbook is back on. He went on to say a couple other things. Trader sentiment was sell the rip now new highs by May, bulls in charge as long as semis, biotech and commodities hold high. But bears back in charge of bond yields fall and high yield bonds and private credit still can catch a bit. Jim, come back over to you. Agree with that sentiment right there. Those areas continue to move higher. That's a sign that we're still in a bull market.

[A]

Yeah, but let's put an asterisk to this. I don't think we're going back to the way we were in early February anytime soon.

[D]

What do you mean in particular?

[A]

Well, in particular oil, which does tie into sentiment, which then does tie into the markets. There's just no way we're going back to 60, $50 a barrel oil anytime soon. And I hope I'm wrong. I hope I'm jinxing it and you know, next week we're at 40, but that's just not going to happen. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. All those production facilities are going to take a long time to, to restart. So you know, this is going to be with us for a while. Having said that, there is reason to think that the cushions that we entered this year with Frank in the economy and the markets are still in place. What am I talking about? I'm talking about things like the stimulus from the budget bill which is flowing through to capital expenditures here in the United States on top of artificial intelligence build out. Oh, and stability in the labor market. I mean has Anybody looked at initial weekly jobless claims recently? Extraordinarily low. Continuing claims coming down as well. Now we've eaten into some of those cushions. Like for instance, I don't think we're going to get a rate cut this year. And so maybe that, you know, should temper our expectations going forward. Forward. But when I say temper our expectations, we should expect that by the end of this year we are nicely above the all time high in the stock market. We should also expect a lot of volatility between here and then again because who knows what's going to happen over the weekend in the Gulf. Who knows what's going to happen Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, particularly if Iran continues to charge tolls for tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz.

[D]

So I want to ask you about one other thing. Inflation. So you're mentioning oil is a big part of this story. We saw CPI today just kind of showed that when we're looking at headline inflation it's kind of sticky. Energy prices certainly spiked. A lot of people think the next two reports are going to show an even bigger spike. But when you look at core, that was actually pretty reasonable, the direction seeming to be pretty good. So are you saying inflation doesn't matter as much going forward because the oil, because the Fed's told us the oil shocks not going to leave inflation.

[A]

Inflation is keeping them from cutting rates. Now I don't think they're also not hiking. Well let's, let's parse that a little bit because in the Fed minutes that were released this week there was more chatter about rate hikes. Now I strongly believe that would be foolish of the Fed to raise rates. That's not going to create more oil flow through a street of Hormuz. It's just going to damage jobs. However, history has shown and market experience shows that you know, sometimes the Fed does things that it shouldn't. I mean ever heard of the Fed making a mistake? I hope they don't make this mistake. Mistake. It would be, frankly it would be catastrophic.

[B]

If you look at the inflation report today, there are components within core services and components within core goods that are showing a drop. There are some actually really good bright spots here. But you take a look back at the February PC number that came out earlier in the week. I think that was, was it two days ago or yesterday morning. That number, the personal income data contracted surprisingly. And then you get some of the spending and the goods inflation numbers here in this March number comes down. And then you see the sentiment data in Michigan today comes down. So you know, you're not really seeing a reaction in the treasury market to some of this negative data. Even though, you know, the expectations of CPI were fairly high for the headline number, but it still came in below those expectations. I'm wondering why we're not seeing more of a reaction in the treasury curve. And if you look back to December right now there's 25% chance in December that the Fed will hike rates only 25 basis points this year. So through, through the end of the year. You know, I think that is mispriced. But my question kind of again, that devil's advocate story is what creates that, that, that cutting, sorry, is a 25 basis point cut. What creates that story for a cut? Does it start to see further deterioration in the consumer and then what does that do to the market? So there's this, I think there's a lot of questions here. Right now the tailwinds are strong for, for the price action. But again I think you have to at these upper levels, as we close in on the record highs, you have to have some questions you got to post yourself.

[D]

You know Bill, to your point, we've seen the market react very strongly to a few data points in an economic report like a cpi. Brent, I want to come over to you. Surprised we're not seeing a bigger reaction. Gasoline prices up 19%, electric up but just about 4 and a half percent just to tick over that. And then piped in gas service up over 6% as well. And a lot of people believe, if you look at any economist note, this is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the impact that we're going to see.

[C]

I think so. The market has obviously digested this. I think right now I agree with Jim, by the way, that I don't even see remotely how oil has a six or seven handle on it. And so. But I think the market is taking this, you know, very well. To me where I look at inflation is the rig count has not moved since pre Iran war. On top of that, I want to say 90% of all like manufactured products, just think about plastics, etc. All have oil energy hydrocarbons as an input inside of that. And so prices over time are just going to go higher. And so I do think these inflationary numbers are going to get sticky just because oil is in everything. But I think that Kevin Wash, whether he comes in in May, July or October, however that happens, I still think we're going to get a rate cut whether we should get one or not. I think that the market feels like that's going to happen. And so I think the balance of the two is why the market is digesting that. But ultimately, if we have earnings growth, if we have productivity. Right. Productivity starts to show itself to Jim's point. Unemployment stays low. The market will look through this for the time being. And so that's why I still think I'm quite constructive, especially technically with the earnings growth and what the market has digested. And also with yields, I think being very anchored here around four and a quarter to 440.

[D]

Yeah, certainly off to a strong start when it comes to earnings. Consensus has it up 14%. We're spending a lot of time talking about energy. I want to go to the bank of America flow show info. Energy seen its biggest outflow Since July of 24, first outflow since November of last year. And Kevin, you're kind of following that same direction with the move that you made.

[E]

Yeah, I'm looking at it more of a rotation trade, Frank. In this market, we have Marathon Petroleum that we picked up late November around $180 a share. It was a 2% position. Stocks just boom. I mean, it's up over 40% over the short term. So we trimmed a little bit into this strength at 251. We're still maintaining that 2% position. So it's not a loss of conviction on the. On the trade, on the stock. It's simply trying to follow an old thesis which is selling high and hopefully buying low. So we rotated from energy, agree with the retail crowd and we've been adding to some tech names on weakness.

[D]

Might as well get to those ads as well. You added Apple and Microsoft. Now the Microsoft one's interesting. A lot of people are seeing Microsoft as one of the most deeply impacted software names by disruption. Why did you decide to go back into Microsoft and give us the thesis on Apple as well?

[E]

Yeah, I mean Microsoft is a software company and we've seen a repricing and a rerating across the board. I'm not sure how many times over the past 20 years where we've seen Microsoft fall under some sort of massive pressure. I think that if there are going to be haves and have nots in the software trade, SaaS, SaaS, Microsoft should be one of them. The multiple here was like 27 and a half. It's dropped down close to 21. I think that's a value. And even if they can't charge for copilot or they can't charge a premium, I think it still keeps you in the ecosystem. So you have a lot of moving parts with Microsoft that I don't think they're getting credit for. I'll be quick on Apple because this was a trade. On Monday there was a rumor that the flip phone or the foldable device was going to be delayed. We're not trying really tying that into our thesis on why we own Apple. But we were able to pick it up to 250 I think was basically the price we were able to pay. And that was this week. Stocks trading over 260. At this point we're looking at it as a utility, as a service company. If they come out with a flip phone or a foldable device, I think that'll be cool. But it's really the Siri working. That is what we're leaning into the position for more so than a cool device.

[D]

All right, we got a lot of Apple and Microsoft ownership here on the desk. By the way. Very quickly, Jeffrey's upgrading the price target on apple going from 286 and 54 cents. You don't see cents there too often. Up to 294 and 91 cents to be particular. You're laughing, Jim.

[A]

Do they set gasoline prices with the 0.9 at the end of it?

[D]

Bill, I want to come over to you. You own this name as well. What do you make of some of Kevin's moves?

[B]

Well, I really like the trim in. In Marathon. I think you know, these refiners are the most volatile within the space. We're overweight, overweight, energy at eight and a half percent. But the thing here is 70 is the crack spreads got to $75 a barrel. It means they're making $75 of profit per every barrel refined. And I mean a lot of this has been priced in from a trajectory standpoint. So taking some off the table here is. I like that move a lot. I wish we owned Marathon. We have owned it many times before. But going on to Apple, I think there's a lot of a lot of upside here. I think Apple is really one of the wild cards this year. I think had a great start to the week. Had a slump middle of the week. Health care, preventative health care is a sort of a wildcard in their payment processing. I think continues to be some really areas that it can improve. And then Microsoft, it's. We own that name. We continue to add to it a little bit because we were underweight. We're still underweight. But you know, it's sort of got this idiosyncratic punch in the face where the, you know it's tied to Oracle and the issues around around Oracle the data center builds out, it's the open, open air questions the trajectory of OpenAI and then this the software flow is just you know the private credit that's being stuck with the software. Then if you they're taking down their public shares and you're just seeing this software continue to get slammed and Microsoft is, is in the pull down with that. So I think it's getting something that's already playing out which I think brings a brighter future the second half of the year. We like the name, I like the moves. We'll see how it goes.

[D]

Brent, you also own Apple and Microsoft. Your take on some of Kevin's moves. I'm just looking at the charts right now. Right now since the Iran war started Apple's only down about one and a quarter percent. Perhaps surprisingly Microsoft however much harder hit with the ad disruption fears also a factor down more than 5%.

[C]

So I think Apple Kevin I think is does a great job obviously of doing Apple. He'll sell calls it gets called away, he's fine with it. I think Apple of all the mega caps, you know their capex is actually down about 15% year over year and so from a capital discipline there's been so much money just burned just wasted on this AI build out we know that and so I think Apple is going to continue to be like a Costco, like a Walmart. People will give it a high multiple because they know they're going to have good numbers. I think the foldable phone will come out, it'll be great when it comes out but I still think they're, they're 18 numbers, just their current iPhone I think are going to be spectacular. Microsoft which I own, we're taking out Copilot, putting in quad Copilot. It just feels, their Copilot feels like teams, you just don't want to use it. And so I think when it comes down to earnings for Microsoft it's going to come down to Azure. They really need to have a 38, 39% year over year growth. If it comes in at 37 anything lower I think the market trades down. I still like Google over Microsoft for a multitude of reasons. I think their Google cloud is going to crush it again this quarter.

[D]

You know while we are talking about software right now, despite the sharp tech rebound this week, software struggles well they just kind of continue in their back, front and center and now there is more concern around AI's threat to the space especially when it comes to cybersecurity. Kate Rooney has that story for us. Kate.

[C]

Hey Frank. So this time the concern is coming out of Washington. CNBC has now confirmed that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Scott Besant did meet with the top US banking CEOs this week to discuss cyber security risks. When we talk about Anthropics new AI model. According to sources familiar with this meeting, the heads of almost all of the major US banks out there were already in DC for another event when this gathering was actually called. Our Houston confirming that that was happening. Having some of this great reporting. Sources saying that JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon was the only major bank CEO that could not attend the meeting. Bloomberg was first to report this news. But it does really underline Frank, some of the fears of what could actually happen to financial infrastructure if this tech does get into the wrong hands. It did coincide with Anthropic's newest A model AI model which was released this week. It's called Mythos, only available right now to a select group of companies including some of the banks. You have J.P. morgan on that initial list and basically Anthropic said the reason for that is that it is too powerful. They talk about corporations getting a head start on some of the bad actors out there. Anyone with nefarious plans for the ramped up version of of this technology. According to the company, the model, just to put it in context already found thousands they say of high severity vulnerabilities including in every major operating system and web browser. Does come as this company right now is locked in a legal battle with the Pentagon which has designated it as a supply chain risk. Anthropic officials telling us this morning in a statement that prior to any sort of external release Anthropic did brief senior officials across the US government on Mythos previews and the entire full capabilities of that model. Frank, back over to you.

[D]

Yes, another development shaking up the software space. In this case it's cybersecurity Arcade Rooney with the very latest. Kate, thank you very much. A lot of broad over here software ownership. I want to point out number one the bug cyber ETF hit a 52 week low today. Some of the key holdings in there crowdstrike down more than 19% year to date. Palo Alto down more than 15%. I want it's going to come to

[B]

who owns Palantir here?

[D]

Excuse me. Palo Alto. Kevin, you own Palo Alto. I'm going to come over to you and Brent, I think you said you do too.

[E]

Well not only we own Palo Alto, we added to it this week. I'm not sure how sharp we look today, the stocks trading down 11 sticks. But this news that we saw makes me terrified and I think it only validates the cybersecurity argument. So I tend to think the market's getting this wrong. I just think that there will be players that embrace AI and have the ability to utilize this cybersecurity to fend off some of these things that Claude's talking about. Now maybe it's possible that they don't need it and Claude can do it themselves and we'll see then this, this trade won't work out for us. But one of the things that I liked was that the CEO put a $10 million investment, a share purchase by a CEO of $10 million of their own money is compelling and something we pay attention to also. This is a story that's changing every day, but I think the market's got it wrong.

[D]

But I'm going to get to you on Palantir in a second, but I want to talk about CrowdStrike very quickly. Bill you on this one. I'm looking at this chart. This stock is under a lot of pressure, often seen as one of the leaders when it comes to cybersecurity. With Palo Alto. Are you someone that also believes that is going to disintermediate the cybersecurity space?

[B]

I think it's, it's gotten wrong. I think we're going to have to see more demand on, on some of the traditional cybersecurity names. It's, it's become, you know, sell first, ask questions later. And that's how the market's been reacting. And it's also, again, from a flow standpoint, you know, there's a lot of private credit fears tied to software and the best way to hedge those for those that hold it is to take down your public holdings. So I think the disruption is still continue to play out. Those long term multiples are continuing to come down and CrowdStrike is at a pretty decent level of, of support. If you kind of, kind of look back a bit, it's, you know, I'd like to see it kind of hold where it's held a low. You know, inverse head and shoulders kind of throw a little, little technical pattern out there if we, if we could hold today's low. But we've seen some of the software names come off the lows today. App Love it is one that's come off the today. Palantir's come off the low today. You see a lot of them are maybe this was that last panic sell this morning. So let's, let's wait and see.

[D]

All right, Britt, I want to come over to you. Palantir has been kind of in the spotlight. A lot of people think that Anthropic is going to, quote, unquote, eat its lunch. Dan, I've Scott with the note saying he doesn't believe that's the case. What's your view on Palantir? And you're also, also a holder of the bug etf.

[C]

Yeah, I agree with, I agree with Dan. So, I mean, Palantir will say is AI agnostic, right? So they use Claude, they use all of the data. And they were the, they were the original AI company. And so they have, they have enterprise clients, government clients. The issue with Palantir, to me is the valuation. I mean, I first bought it back two years at 24, sold some at 45, 75 and 100. And so it's still trading at somewhat of a nosebleed level. I think that's more of the challenge is that if all of a sudden you have this question mark about Anthropic, which I agree with Dan, you still have trouble around the valuation of Palantir. And so I think that for investors, you got to, you got to watch the technicals and the chart looks terrible here. So, I mean, the stock could easily go to 100. Just looking technically and, and the valuations are really high. And I think on the software I own Bug, I haven't added to it. I've wanted to, it, I've wanted to add, but it's really hard to prove this, this negative. And so I think until you get some type of baseline where these stocks just stop going down, it really is catching a falling knife.

[D]

All right, right now, the bug ETF down more than 4%. All right, still ahead here on Halftime, more trades from both Kevin and Jim. But first, the committee's playbook on the big banks ahead of earnings. Halftime's back in just two minutes. This is the table, the one with the view. This is how you reserve exclusive tables with Chase Sapphire Reserve.

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And welcome back to halftime bank earnings. They kick off next week. The bank trade has been ramping up into the print with the KB coming off its eighth positive day for the first time since 2018. Goldman is the first on deck. It's set to report on Monday. Kevin, you own that name.

[E]

I think they're going to crush it. I think all the bank stocks are going to have fantastic numbers next week. I think their guidance is also going to be strong. If you think about mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, something that we'll probably be spending a few minutes talking about the latter part of the year, these companies are going to crush it and I think that they're going to move higher and you can buy them into the print.

[D]

All right, coming up on Tuesday, we got J.P. morgan. Jim and Bill, you both on this one. Jim, you up first.

[A]

I mean, JP Morgan, what are we expecting here? A little update from Jamie Dimon on any credit concerns. You know, we're not really expecting anything to move the needle in terms of the performance. And as Kevin just alluded to, look, we can't avoid it if we're talking, talking about the financials that we're talking about the JP Morgans and yes, the Citigroups. Frank, we have to talk about the mega IPOs that are coming up because that's what we're really looking forward to. In this space, the whole space had a fabulous 2025. We know that we've had a rough start to this year. A lot of that has to do with private credit. But now we need to look forward on what's going to be positive for this sector. It is those IPOs, it is the reduction in capital that should be coming from new regulatory, regulatory rules and it is the strength in the US economy that we all spoke about earlier. Stable labor markets. There is still a lot to like in the financial space. I'm not really teasing you like the best name in the space. Just factually, if you look at the big banks, it's Citigroup. I'm not teasing you. That's the name.

[D]

Listen, don't break your arm patting yourself on the back.

[A]

I'm not, I'm patting Citi on the back.

[D]

You got to be careful, man. Bill, very quickly, your take on JP

[B]

Morgan, it's the best of breed. I mean cities perform better but JP Morgan saw performing the S and P financials by about 4% this year. It does get technical for a second to 80. Huge level held it previous high going back to late 24, early 25. So I think it could be off the races with some good reports. But remember the financials, they go up on that good report, they always kind of come back in a little bit. So don't feel you need to chase post report positive gains.

[D]

All right, Kevin, I want to go ahead to tax day. Bank of America reports big consumer franchise there any concerns about the consumer part of the business? Everybody seems to be very confident about the trading, especially with all the volatility.

[E]

I mean that's a more traditional bank. They're not as as deeply involved in the investment banking side. Of course they own Merrill lynch and I think that's going to do really, really well. The wealth management side, lower rates obviously are going to help from a mortgage standpoint for companies like bank of America and Wells Fargo and Citi to a lesser extent. But I think that I think the numbers are going to be pretty decent. I'm more bullish on JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs than I am about bank of America heading into next week.

[D]

All right. Bank of America shares pulling back about a third of 1%. We now want our turn turn our attention to our Contestant Brewer with the CNBC news update. Good afternoon, contestant.

[C]

Hi there, Frank. Yeah. Vice President J.D. vance right now is on his way to Pakistan to lead negotiations on how to end the war in Iran. Band says he's looking forward to the high stakes talks and his team is ready to work with Iran if they act in good faith. But he warned the US won't be receptive to Iran if it tries to play us. His words. The highest level meeting between a US official and Iranian officials since the start of the war. Non essential state and city offices are closed in Oahu today. The island is bracing for more strong rain and and gusty wind. Hawaii Governor Josh Green announced those closures and warned that potential flooding and power disruptions could affect travel. I'm just back from Hawaii. There were already disruptions to excursions and tours there storm had closed down roads because this is now the third storm in less than a month that brought all this intense rain to Hawaii. Spots got more than 100 inches and the WNBA is officially, officially expanding to three new cities. The Women's Professional Basketball League and the NBA Board of Governors approved the expansion Thursday. Cleveland's team will begin to play in 2028 with Detroit following in 2029 and Philadelphia in 2030. All this brings the league to a record 18 teams. So if you're loving women's basketball and who's not, you get more of it.

[D]

Frank Philadelphia was long overdue for a franchise contestant. I know they haven't come up with the name yet. Liberty Bells. I'm just floating at David Adelman.

[C]

Although you've got New York Liberty already. What are you going to do? It's a little close, don't you think?

[D]

Yeah, but you have the Houston Texans, you have the Dallas. I mean, you can have some overlap when it comes to sports team names. We don't have to be so rigid. It's fun. Okay, Arkansas Brewer, thank you so much. All right, coming up next, the trade on Tesla with shares pacing for their eighth straight losing week. We're going to debate that and much more in our top calls of the day. What would you like the power to do?

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Every style, every home. And welcome back to have let's get to some calls of the day. Morgan stanley sticking with its 415 price target on Tesla that represents about 20% upside down mess despite shares pacing for their eighth negative week in a row. Brent, talking to I want to come over to you on this one, the analyst. They kind of cite that Tesla's hit 10 billion full self driving miles. Does that give you more conviction in this name despite some of the pressure that's been on it?

[C]

I mean we know this already. It's interesting. There was an analyst a couple of weeks ago I think at JP Morgan that's like 125. This analyst is at 4 something you can drive a, a Tesla Tesla semi through the price targets. I think what you need to understand is earnings come out the 22nd. We're actually looking for 40% earnings growth. So going in the right direction they are the closest next to Waymo, those two companies that literally achieving unsupervised full self driving. And I think Frank, the market really got it wrong during Nvidia's GTC Genset announced this Hyperion chip stack to these OEMs and a lot of people are saying oh yeah, all these other car companies are going to be able to self drive. No, not even remotely. It just gives them the ability to start training. And so I think when you understand what's actually having happening, we have Tesla earnings are growing which is great. We also have the Optimus which you want to hear about that because they discontinued the S and the X at Fremont and are going to start doing manufacturing of Optimus. And so I think that's a good price target of 44 plus. But once again the stock has been pretty much in freefall so we need that to to turn around before we're going to get a four handle on the stock.

[D]

All right, moving on. Speaking of autonomous driving, Uber's price target raised to 105@wolf. Bill, you on this one.

[B]

Yeah, we did tribute significantly about a month ago. We've loved the fundamentals. We love the cash flow story, the profitability that this thing has turned into. Problem is the market. It just has not reacted well. I would love to see, you know, some, some show of life here. It's trading right above 70 bucks. I think you got to get mid-80s at minimum before it even gets, you know, excites you again. But I think it's really from a flow standpoint that, you know, you saw a big failure at $100 and then it went from a pure tech stock to an industrial. And if you consider it as an industrial stock, it's really underperform the the sector by what, 25, 28% this year. So it's a tough one at this level. I think it's a no man's land. We've trimmed it. But I'd like to see another positive earnings report. Another thought that the CFO is, thinks the stock's undervalued. They're going to buy. You know, buybacks could help it, but nothing has.

[D]

All right, we're pulling back more than 1% today. One more Morgan Stanley hiking his target on the CME Group. Caviar on this one.

[E]

Yeah, I like the call. More volume, volatility increases trading volume. They've got lots of new product innovation. They're looking at the prediction markets. One really interesting thing about the dividend. In addition to what they pay, which is about $5.20 in the regular quarterly, they paid a $6.15 special dividend. They typically do this once a year. This was paid in March, so it could coincide with their regular dividend cycle. But if you put that together, I mean, you're getting over 11 bucks a share just to own this name.

[D]

All right, coming up here on Halftime, Morgan Stanley is betting big on a space that's been booming with M and A. What is it and how the committee is playing it? We're going to explain it all coming up next. Stay with us. And welcome back to halftime. Let's get a check on the healthcare trade. Morgan Stanley hiking price targets across its biopharma coverage as M and A activity accelerates. Names include Vertex Pharma, Eli Lilly and Amgen. I'm just giving you kind of a sample, a little sample here. Vertex goes from 596 up to 612. Eli Lilly from 1313 up to 1327. Amgen from 309 up to 326. Jim might as well Kick it off with you with Vertex.

[A]

Yeah, well, Vertex is just a company that produces great drugs. Their science is terrific. Their cystic fibrosis franchise is what's the foundation for the company. On top of that though, they have pain medications that are already approved. They're working on kidney treatments. They've just got a lot in the pipeline. And so I see the earnings going nicely higher over the many years to come.

[D]

All right, I want to go over to Eli Lilly. Kevin, you own this one. A lot of M and A by Eli Lilly, by the way. $7.8 billion deal for Sentessa. 2.75 billion deal for another company to bring AI developed drugs to the global market. Your view on Lilly?

[E]

Yeah, you know what I like most about that is that they're filling the pipeline behind just weight loss. And when you can do that and be successful at it, you're going to continue to see this stock move higher. And like the call, it won't be surprising at all if we're talking six months and they're raising it even higher.

[D]

All right, important no other two are overweight. Amgen at equal weight. Bill you on this one?

[B]

Yeah, I think Amgen is. I mean it's been a great performance former to start the year. I like the way, you know it's kind of stood out where it was held back over the last two years. The GLP competitor really weighed it down. I think now that it's moved away from that narrative a bit more, you're going to see some of the other drugs it has in that are coming up are going to continue to be a tailwind to its performance.

[D]

We also talk about medical devices and just the the tech behind the health care. Intuitive surgical great name. A lot of people own maintain is a buy by BTIG 616 price target. They like the long term potential of robotic surgery. What's your view this on the idea of med, I guess health care tech. Medical tech. Whichever one to call it. Jim, I'm going to start with you and this name.

[A]

Well, I don't own this name. I actually don't own anything in the devices business. I'm more partial to the pharmaceuticals. I mean devices. To me the earnings flow is very volatile depending on depends a lot on insurance reimbursement rates. It depends a lot on the flow of patients deciding that now is the time for a knee replacement or hip surgery. And I just feel like there's more stability in pharmaceuticals. I don't hate devices. And to the extent that somebody here is in intuitive surgical or Stryker or something like that. I'm just choosing my poison elsewhere.

[B]

Yeah, we look at it as not quite a call option on the future development but Intuitive Surgical was down nearly 20% year to date. It's in the bottom of our, of our portfolio and it's one of those seeds that we're planting looking further out that they have an edge. It's a long term compounder and it's been struggling over the last two years. I think that once it really is the robotics takes that next step, I think it can be back on track to that long term compounding. And some of these, some of those stocks that, that has it sleep goes to sleep for a little bit and then wakes back up.

[D]

Kevin, you on the this one but we got to move on. All right, coming up next, we got one more committee move. Jim's ready with his latest trade plus we will discuss the earnings setup beyond the big banks. Halftime back in just two minutes. And welcome back to halftime. Jim, you made a buy in the financial space. It actually wasn't Citi. Tell us all about it.

[A]

That's funny. Well, I already owned BlackRock but I only owned a little bit of it. So I'm adding to it now, bringing it up to a full position in the account. We talked earlier about the financials having a rough start to this year. That includes BlackRock down roughly 7% since the start of the year. A lot of that has to do with private credit. But let's face it, private credit is very small compared to the Overall business for BlackRock. Think about the iShares, think about a mutual funds and all the other ETFs that they run and think about what I said earlier that I do think we will set new highs in the markets before year end. This is a great way to play it. Their assets under management go up with the markets and oh by the way, with fixed income yields a lot higher than they were four or five years ago. A lot of advisors, a lot of clients go into into BlackRock fixed fixed income vehicles because it's a lot easier than just buying the bonds themselves. So a lot of reasons to like BlackRock here and I think this is one that's been a sleeper. But we're going to end up talking a lot more about it as the year goes on. Sorry, one quick thing. This is not a call on earnings coming up on Tuesday. I have no idea how the earnings are going to come out. This is a multi year play with blackrock.

[D]

That's a key distinction that we got to move on for a second. But I'm going to get right to you. We also have the setup on key earnings next week, even though Jim tried to front run me. The big one Netflix reports Thursday after the bell. JP Morgan just called it one of their top five picks. Bill and Kevin, you own it. Kevin, you're up first.

[E]

Yeah, I love the name. I love it. Going into the print, they just raised prices. If you think of things you can't live without, Netflix is in the top five for sure. You're talking about a stock that's still trading far below where it was when they started to get involved with the potential acquisition. So think there's room to run here.

[D]

Bill, quick thoughts.

[B]

105 is a big level one of five, one or six. Can you get above that post earnings, Remember the earnings were sort of getting watered down. EPS growth was slowing. How much of an excitement is being priced in? They need to deliver and if they do, the stock is going to really go into the one teens.

[D]

All right. We also got Fastenal reporting on Monday. Bill, you on this one as well.

[B]

You know, Fastenal, I think from industrial standpoint, it has the flows, but industrials in general, you look at really where it kind of worries me. We've loved this name for a while. It's getting a little overpriced. It's in the bottom. I like to find a reason to continue to add to it. Earnings growth and estimates are going to expand and you know, kind of see how this earnings, earnings go. I think it's an inflection point for it.

[C]

All right.

[D]

Ran out the week. We got Pepsi reporting on Thursday morning. Kevin, you own this one?

[E]

Yeah, I would say tepid at best from an expectation standpoint. The consumer stretched with higher oil prices, higher gas prices. Is this is something that maybe is going to be put a little bit on the back burner from the budgetary standpoint. If, if, if margins can hold up, it might be okay. But I probably wouldn't be looking at this or expecting too much out of the earnings report.

[D]

All right here at the Pepsi shares up over 9%. Coming up next, we got more committee moves. Kevin Simpson's got a trade in the metals space as gold paces for its third straight weekly gain. More halftime coming up right after this. Kevin, you're making a move in the metals space. Tell us all about it.

[E]

Yeah, this is by no means calling a top in metals, but this is trying to harvest volatility and we saw intense volatility earlier in the week. So on Wednesday, Bryn, you'll love this one. We wrote a covered call, an Agnico eagle. This was 13% out of the money at the time. So we wrote a $245 strike, brought in $3, $3.50 a share. This thing pulled back to 217. We're not going to get it called away. In all probability it's a one month option. But if you annualize out that $3.50 which doesn't sound like much, but it's a 20% annualized option premium. So we love the name. Stock's up almost 100% over the past year. This is just a nice way to get paid a little extra on a covered call.

[D]

Yeah, I want to talk about a couple other metals. Silver is down double digits since the Iran war began. Copper's down more than 5%. Bring you on BHP, biggest copper producer.

[C]

Yeah, well they do a diversified, you know, diversified commodities. It's still up 30% for the year. It's done much better than gold. And I really think on the gold and silver, gold and silver got overwhelmed by the retail and then algorithmic trade. And so I think those charts and the volumes just went parabolic for just speculative purposes. And so now it's come back to the, come back to ground ground level. I don't think the retail investors were trading in bhp hence the better performance.

[D]

All right, looking at BHP right now about down about a third of 1%. All right, stay with us. Final trades they're coming up on halftime. Bryn, Europe first,

[C]

Capital One. It's been a bad stock year to date. Great company. I think earnings will be a catalyst for the stock to go higher.

[E]

Kevin, Amazon, it's starting to move. I know they're spending a lot on CapEx but US is accelerating and retail margins are actually improving.

[B]

Bill, SL V would would be a byproduct of right now China's export ban on copper. And it's a sulfuric acid impact on copper and that is a. Silver mining is a byproduct of, of

[D]

copper mining and that's so picks slv. Just to clarify Jim, you got the last one.

[A]

Nvidia the post earnings sell off is done and it is marching towards $200 a share.

[D]

Oh, we did have a few seconds. All right, that does it for halftime. The exchange starts right now.

[B]

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