CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: The Setup for Stocks into Year-End 11/26/25
Date: November 26, 2025
Host: Frank Holland (in for Scott Wapner), joined by Joe Terranova, Liz Thomas, Jason Snipe, Steve Weiss
Theme: The fate and setup for stocks in the final stretch of 2025, sector leadership rotation, the durability of the rally, and what sets up for 2026.

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on the state of the equity markets heading into the final month of 2025. The panel debates sector leadership, the impact of AI, rotation out of tech, the health of the consumer, and whether the end-of-year rally has more legs. They also discuss notable stocks, sector rotations, the evolving macro landscape, and how investors should position themselves for 2026.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Personality & Breadth Into Year-End

• (01:56) Joe Terranova: “The personality of the market has changed. It's going to be more complicated, more idiosyncratic. We'll see more picking and choosing, especially around AI, and a preference for reasonable valuations.”

  • Market showed broad participation; all sectors in the green.
  • VIX below 18, positive sentiment could push S&P toward all-time highs.

• (03:44) Liz Thomas: “Health care, materials, and consumer discretionary are leading. Investors are searching for more attractive valuations, and 'growth at a reasonable price' is coming to the fore.”

• (05:16) Jason Snipe: Sees healthy sector rotation, especially out of overbought tech. Regional banks, transports, homebuilders, and small caps (Russell 2000 up 5% over five trading days) show breadth.

  • Fed speakers turning dovish helps market sentiment.

2. Tech Sector: Rotation & Leverage Risks

• (06:02) Frank Holland recaps Morgan Stanley’s concerns: Capex (capital expenditure) boom in tech brings risk if productivity gains don’t realize quickly enough, potentially raising leverage faster than output.

• (06:41) Steve Weiss: Dismisses broad tech leverage worries:

  “If I had to pick a sector where I didn’t mind leverage, that would be technology because of their cash flows.”

  • Leverage in cash-rich tech (except outliers like Oracle) not a market risk.

3. AI Trade: Leadership and Breadth

• (11:10) Alphabet vs. Nvidia as AI Leaders

  • Frank Holland to Liz: Asks about changing leadership in AI between Alphabet and Nvidia.
  • Liz Thomas: Broader AI adoption will spread beyond mega-cap tech into other sectors, especially health care.

• (11:32) Liz Thomas:

  “There's not just going to be one winner in AI. Spread your exposure—there can be a number of winners in this trade.”

• (14:17) Steve Weiss: Prefers Alphabet over Nvidia, but holds both.

  • Taiwan Semi is called the “perennial winner” as a semi supplier to multiple leading AI players, trading at relatively attractive valuations.

  “Taiwan Semi… that's my biggest position out of all the semis… capacity is sold out for years and years.”

4. Apple’s Stealth Resilience

• (15:58) Joe Terranova: Notes Apple’s quiet all-time high and resilience, despite skepticism about “Apple Intelligence” and growth.

  “Think about the resiliency of Apple and they haven’t even delivered on Apple Intelligence yet.”

• (16:55) Steve Weiss:

  “Apple is as close as you can get to technology version of utility… you’re paying for the brand and for its position in indices.”

5. Sector Performance & 2026 Outlook

• (22:49) Joe Terranova:

  • Quality factor (health care, some financials) is emerging as momentum fades.
  • 2026 will likely bring more volatility, idiosyncratic stories, and less comfort extending leverage.
  • Other sectors (financials, industrials, consumer, staples) are making new highs, not just tech.

• (24:40) Liz Thomas:

  • Rate cuts and re-acceleration in 2026 may mean value-leaning sectors outperform.
  • Cyclical recovery could benefit financials, health care, materials, and potentially consumer staples.
  • 2026 is a midterm election year, typically marked by volatility.

Notable Quote:

“Much different leadership picture in 26, and the market will start to set up for that at the end of this year.” – Liz Thomas (25:50)

6. Retailer and Consumer Insights (28:07)

• Courtney Reagan (Retail Reporter):

  • Cyber Week is crucial: 17% of holiday spending.
  • Online up; in-store still matters. Black Friday (in-store) sales expected up 8.3% YoY.
  • Consumer confidence wobbly but retail spending up 4.5% YoY (Bank of America).
  • “Consumers may feel less confident… but they’re still buying—even if doing so ‘choicefully.’” (29:41)

• Liz Thomas:

  • Consumer Discretionary and Staples may benefit if cyclical recovery continues in 2026.

  “Discretionary might be a nice place.”

• Steve Weiss:

  • Sees a "bifurcated economy"—lower income consumers squeezed by inflation, while upper-end consumers still spend.

• Joe Terranova:

  • Off-price retailers (TJX, Ross) working, but momentum in Discretionary is idiosyncratic and hard to sustain outside big names like Amazon or Tesla.

7. Individual Stocks & Themes

Oracle

• (10:29) Jason Snipe:
  • Oracle “attractive” despite high debt, down 37%. Leadership (Larry Ellison) provides confidence in recovery.

Amazon

• (20:53) Jason Snipe:
  • Amazon underperformed but sees multi-year opportunity due to proprietary chips (less dependence on Nvidia) and growth in retail, ad business, and cloud.
• Steve Weiss:
  • Remains bullish, though Amazon not a top-three holding.

Autodesk (36:59)

• Strong growth; AI-driven infrastructure tailwind.

Workday (37:36)

• Weak margins, guidance disappoints; negative price action.

United Rentals (38:13)

• Bullish call due to infrastructure and event-related demand.

8. What’s Working: Thanks-Giving Stock Recap (40:36)

Jason Snipe:

• Alphabet: “That energy from Sergey back at the helm… will push the stock.”
• Goldman Sachs: Up 42% YTD, sees more upside with Fed rate cuts.
• Uber: Mobility and Delivery up 20%, still room to run.

Liz Thomas:

• XLV (Health Care ETF): “Health care has clawed its way to the top… still a great opportunity into 2026.”
• FXI (China Internet ETF): “Controversial call that worked out, up 30% YTD.”
• Gold: “A story we all know very, very well.”

Steve Weiss:

• Alphabet: Core holding due to business mix.
• Caterpillar: Bought mid-year, still positive.
• FTA Aviation: “Perfect way to extend your portfolio beyond tech.”

Joe Terranova:

• Micron: Recent purchase, up over 170%.
• Newmont Mining, GLD: Bullish on gold.
• McKesson: Healthcare for 2026.

9. Midday Market Commentary (39:05)

Mike Santoli (Senior Markets Commentator):

“You did get good broad movement off of oversold. [But] when people feel it’s in the bag for a strong finish, that’s when it gets demanding.”

• Notes caution for December—sometimes rallies exhaust early.

10. Previewing Next Week

• CrowdStrike (44:31): Joe expects strong recurring revenue, AR growth; options pricing in a 7% move; fundamentals look intact.
• Snowflake (45:01): Jason likes the data warehousing theme; stock up 60% YTD; new go-to-market approach.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “You can’t put all your eggs in one basket… there can be a number of winners in this [AI] trade.” – Liz Thomas (11:32)
• “Apple is as close as you can get to technology version of utility.” – Steve Weiss (16:55)
• “I think that the market’s going to revert to where it has been. Is it over? The answer is it’s not over.” – Steve Weiss (07:55)
• “If nine months from now we're talking about we need another rate cut, then you're not going to get the double digit earnings growth expected right now for 26.” – Joe Terranova (26:06)
• Courtney Reagan, on holiday retail: “Consumers may feel less confident this holiday season… but they're still buying, even if doing so choicefully.” (29:48)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Market Set-Up & Breadth: 01:56–06:02
• Tech & AI Trade Rotation: 06:41–14:32
• Apple: Quiet All-Time Highs: 15:58–17:36
• Amazon, Oracle, Alphabet Positioning: 20:42–22:37
• Previewing 2026 & Volatility: 22:49–26:06
• Retail Sector Health: 28:07–33:49
• Best Performing Stocks of 2025: 40:36–42:45
• Mike Santoli Midday Word: 39:05–40:07
• Software Earnings Preview (CrowdStrike, Snowflake): 44:31–45:19

Overall Tone & Takeaway

The discussion is analytical yet conversational, blending macro strategy, sector rotation, technical market levels, and “inside baseball” on specific stocks. Panelists repeatedly emphasize the shift from a market-wide rally driven by a few mega-cap tech names and AI to one that will require more tactical, diversified, and valuation-conscious positioning in 2026. There’s broad optimism about remaining opportunities but also pronounced caution about volatility ahead. Health care emerges as a key bullish theme for the coming year, while the “Magnificent 7” are now being scrutinized for idiosyncratic opportunity rather than as an automatic group buy.

For listeners:
If you missed this episode, you’ve got a clear roadmap for what’s working now, what to watch heading into December, the most-convicted sectors (health care, selected tech/semis), and how the CNBC Halftime Report team is prepping for an unpredictable 2026.