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Halftime Report
The Setup for Stocks into Year-End 11/26/25
00:43:28
Frank Holland and the Investment Committee debate the setup for stocks into year-end as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday. Plus, CNBC’s Courtney Reagan joins ‘Halftime Report’ to discuss the latest news on retail's most important week of the year. We discuss what it means for the retail sector. And later, the Committee share the stocks they are thankful for this year. Investment Committee Disclosures
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I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report.
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The podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day.
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We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern.
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Listen in.
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Welcome to the Halftime Report. I am Frank Holland in for the judge. Scott Wapner, front and center at this hour, the fate of the rally and the final stretch of this year. Are we setting up for more gains to close out 2025? The investment committee standing by to debate that and much, much more general for the hour, we got Joe Terranova, who's tickled, Liz Thomas, Jason Seif and Steve Weiss all here right here at post 9. Happy Holidays to you guys. By the way, before you get this party started, let's get a quick check on the markets. Right now. You can see we're in the green across the board. We're looking at the NASDAQ. It's up and leading about 1%. The S&P nearly up 1%. The Dow up more than 400 points. The Russell also up more than three quarters of 1%. And with that, let's get the conversation started. Joe, happy holidays. Thank you all for being here.
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B
Happy Thanksgiving, Frank, Happy Thanksgiving to you.
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A
All right, so Joe, I want to ask you, obviously tomorrow's a holiday half day on Friday. Then we have the last month of the year, the action we've seen in November so far. Do you expect that to be a sign of what to expect going on for this last month? Health care and leadership, investors being a bit more picking and choosing when it comes to AI?
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B
Look, I think overall the personality of the market has changed. I think it's going to be a little bit more difficult, a little bit more complicated, a little bit more idiosyncratic. I think we're going to screen out some of the participants in what has been a very strong thematic trade surrounding AI and look at what the valuations might be and say, okay, we're more comfortable with something that has a reasonable valuation. But I think in the near term we kind of, over the last two weeks we stepped on the animal spirits. It looked like we wanted to take the market lower. In fact, we actually held the 100 day moving average. And where are you today? You have a Vix below 18, which is its best level in the last two weeks. So it looks like in the near term we're kind of pointing back towards that all time high for the S and P. And I think what I like about what I've seen so far this week is the participation is broad based. The participation once again, it's not like you have to pick between do I want to be in the S and P or do I want to be in the S and P equal 8. They're both rising right now. We're seeing various sectors that are appreciating as well. And it looks as though with that type of improvement in sentiment you could challenge the previous all time highs. Yeah.
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A
To your point, all sectors week to date, it's a holiday shortened week, lower volume, but all sectors are in the green. So there's really the same question for you. In November we saw health care take leadership. We saw investors picking and choosing. When it came to AI, we may be seeing Alphabet take some leadership. Is this a sign of what's to come for the rest of this year?
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D
Well, so the rest of this year what we're doing then is setting up for what we're looking at in 2026. And as we know, January is usually a pretty strong month for the markets. But what I found interesting after this pretty strong breakdown in beta that happened over the last month or so is how the leadership has shaped up coming out of it. So when you look last week's lows, Thursday we had that big turn from being up and then down from last week's lows. The sectors that have been the strongest coming out of it, we've got health care materials and consumer discretionary tech is not on that list and one of the strongest coming out. So now I think investors are searching for number one, as Joe mentioned, more attractive valuation. So you can think of that however you'd like to, whether that's value based sectors or things like growth at a reasonable price and then looking at more opportunities for beta opportunities going forward, what's going to produce some of that return turn? Health care has been such a bright spot even since August if you look at performance of health care since August. So I think that will continue for investors searching for ways to make money outside of a lot of the darlings.
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A
Yeah, to your point, health care, by far the best performing sector this quarter for multiple months it's been kind of moving higher. I want to talk about something else you're talking about here, the rotation out of tech. If you go look at what bank of America put out last week when it comes to tech rolling, four week average of tech outflows as a percent of market cap at four year extremes going all the way back to 2021. Jason Snipe with that in mind, last week at least investors were getting out of debt. What are you expecting going forward again for today? Holiday, short week, but also for the month ahead for December?
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E
No, I think seasonals could be at play. I think. You know, one of the things we haven't mentioned yet is obviously we heard some Fed speak this week from Daily and from Williams, ever more dovish in tone, which I think has been accretive to the market and some of the movement. Also the price action has been positive. We saw regionals move, transports move, homebuilders move the Russell 2000 up 5% in the last five trading days. So to Joe's point, I think breadth has been positive and health care, I mean health care being the leading sector this year, this month, you know, up over about 10% which I think has been positive in terms of the cyclical rotation. So I think this is all generally good. I think we needed to take something off the boil as it related to tech and you know, now we're getting a little bit of a bounce. I think this is all healthy for the market going forward.
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A
All healthy. By the way, Morgan Stanley I would know and why so want to bounce this off of you when we're talking about tech and some of that, the bond issuance and everything else they want to say. I'm just going to summarize, we're not going to show the whole thing. The primary risk of the capex boom is a failure to deliver productivity in a timely manner so that leverage rises faster than output. We were all here when some of these bonds were issued. We kind of talked about and debated at Snipe. You were here too. I mean really, is that the risk going forward that we're going to see more of these bonds coming out kind of shaking confidence in this trade.
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F
No, I don't think so. First of all, I want to point out one anomaly today that has me greatly concerned. Joe's ties askew, his collars unbuttoned. I don't think I've ever seen that before.
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E
And I find it very something going on.
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B
I will fix it.
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F
No, look, that's just the latest one trying to come in and say, you know, in a very guarded way, sitting squarely with their butt in the middle of the fence, is there a hole in the AI trade? Now we're not, you know, you've got to be, you know, have your head in a hole if you're not seeing productivity gains already from AI and we hear about it every day. Then in terms of the balance sheets, you know, tech, if I had to pick a sector where I didn't mind leverage, that would be in technology because of their cash flows, their free cash flow generation, etc. We never talk about it with airlines, we don't talk about with capital intensive businesses. Granted they're at much lower multiples, but the risk is much higher there because of, of the various, you know, volatility in their businesses. I'm just not worried about it with tech. And I applaud the use of leverage because leverage leverages your returns. So that dialogue's got to go away. Now some companies like the Core Weave or maybe an Oracle because they've taken to such a degree, maybe that's a different issue. It is a different issue, but it's not an issue with any of the other tech trades. So I wish that would just die a quick death. So I think that the market's going to revert to where it has been. We're having the same conversation that we had in April. Is this, is it over? The answer is it's not over. Valuations now more reasonable, but I expect them to once again lead next year.
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A
All right, Joe, last week we're talking about this kind of the correlation between equities and Bitcoin. Apollo's Torsten Slok out with a note today, some other people out with a note. Looking at the divergence. NASDAQ and Bitcoin usually highly correlated, there's been a divergence kind of Bitcoin moving lower, the Nasdaq able to move higher. What does that say about this final month of the year or investor sentiment? Has some of that margin buying been washed out? Is that what we're seeing here when we see the NASDAQ able to move higher. Even with Bitcoin moving lower, is there something else taking place?
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B
I think it's indicative of that there were technical forces at play whether that was reducing leverage and obviously seeking liquidity in the marketplace as it related to cryptocurrencies. It wasn't really about fundamentals. So all you really needed was more stabilization than a reversal and a move back higher in cryptocurrencies for equities to kind of say, okay, we can now continue the prevailing overall bullish trend. And I think that's what's happening. It's interesting because in the technology trade, and I think Steve makes some really excellent points, just because Oracle has a debt to equity ratio of 550%, that does not mean you overall assign this universal negative viewpoint on the usage of debt by others in the AI trade because their debt to equity ratios are much lower. So you know, if Amazon's going to go out and do a $27 billion private deal, if Alphabet is going to do 25 billion, if Amazon's going to do it, that's fine. You could be comfortable, comfortable with that because you're talking about reasonable debt to equity ratios. In the case of Oracle, Scott has been asking us on a daily basis and I applaud him for doing so. Okay, we all know you're in Oracle, but right here, what would you do it? And the answer to that has been no. It looks like it's a falling knife. Well now you have this 4% rally today. You have a little bit of a gap higher. You have that low at 185 from the other day. So if you have not entered into Oracle yet and you want what can be a low risk trade with a point of reference attached to it, you're utilizing that low at 185 as a stop out point maybe to go in here and buy some Oracle.
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So you mentioned Scott's been asking that question, what do you do with Oracle? You own it, Jason. You own it. So we might as well ask you one more time where it's at right now, up over 3.5%. What would you do with Oracle right here? How attractive does it look going forward for this last month of the year?
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E
Yeah, no, to Joe's point, I think it is attractive here. I think the concern of course is it's a $570 billion company with north of $100 billion worth of debt. And I think that's been the concern around the market. Listen, it's, it's down 37% since that, when we were on the air and talking about that 359% RPO growth in the.
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We haven't talked about that RPO number.
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Why we haven't.
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We have quite a bit for good reason.
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Right.
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Because of the price action. But I think this is an interesting place to enter. We'll see how they deal with this open ideal if they're able to hit these commitments. But I think with Larry Elson behind the helm, I think they can be successful going forward. And that's why I think this is an attractive point here.
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A
All right. See, that is attractive. I'm surprised we got this long. Alphabet versus Nvidia seems to be the kind of. The battle royale kind of shaping up. Liz, I'm coming over to you. Does a change in leadership in the AI trade, is that meaningful beyond just those two companies, or does it change other things? Portfolio positioning, just sentiment. If we see Alphabet and their TPU just kind of shake up the view of Nvidia having this huge moat.
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D
So I do think that the AI trade is going to broaden out and start to reach into different places. I would take the mega cap tech names out of that and the hyperscaler sort of out of that. I want to speak more broadly. I think that it will start to broaden out not just within technology, and again, this is thinking into 2026, but broaden out within technology but also start to broaden out into other sectors. As we have heard about productivity gains, to Steve's point earlier, there are productivity gains that are actually happening now and they're going to start to benefit some of the other sectors. No surprise. Health care is one of the ones that I think is at the top of that list. But I think we will start to hear about AI in a lot of different places. Some of the leadership changes in those mega cap names is important, important to watch, and I think it is indicative of. You can't put all of your eggs in one basket and say there's only going to be one winner. We know that competition and a lot of these themes. This is how it works. Competition heats up, other companies come in, other companies fall back for a little while. We're in a process, and I think we're still pretty early in that process to find out who is going to end up being the winner. And I think right now the argument is there doesn't have to be just one. There can be a number of winners in this trade. So make sure that you're spreading out your exposure.
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B
There's a lot of correlation trades that are going on right now in AI and we're learning because of all the distinctive partnerships, what ultimately that looks like when markets are moving lower, when technology looks like it's raising liquidity. You see for Softbank and for Microsoft that they're both down significantly. Why? Because they have that strongest relationship with all open air. So now we're questioning what's that open air valuation looking like. Then in the case of Nvidia, you have Micron, which is attached to it because of their high, high bandwidth memory chips. Then on the other side of it you have Alphabet. And we've seen a significant rally with Broadcom over the last several days because they are partner in the tensor processing units, those chips that we've heard so much about. So I think it's kind of important to identify these relationships because they're trading as baskets and I know the hedge fund speculative community sees that and they are going to try and extenuate whatever move in either direction is going to unfold when that technology sentiment presents itself, whether it's good or bad.
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A
You know, to your point also, the CEO of Broadcom is on the board of Metta. So there's not only kind of some tie ups when we're talking about production, there's types when it comes to relationships and things like that. Weiss, I want to come over to you along with Joe and Jason. You own Alphabet and Nvidia. Does there have to be a winner? Does one have to be in the lead? Is one have to be your favorite? Can they, can you invest in both? Can you like both? Do you have to change anything if Alphabet is becoming a rising competitor?
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F
Look, if you have a one stock portfolio, then pick them. But nobody's got that right. So sure, of course you can own multiple companies, but the one that's going.
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To benefit favor one. Can you hold both equally or if one stake in leadership, do you need to lean that way and put your money in that one?
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F
You know, I don't even know how to answer that. I like, I like Alphabet better. It's a bigger position for me than Nvidia because I just like the other businesses as well. So some of the parts And I also like the fact, I don't like the fact that been saying it for years, it's not happened. I haven't predicted it for years but eventually there will be competition for Nvidia. Their margins are much too big. And what you're talking about a design. Now the company that wins through all of these, through all these is Taiwan Semi because they're making chips For Google, they're making the chips from video. They're making chips Broadcom and guess what, I've got a company that's selling at about 19, 20 times earnings. I've got selling about 13 times EBITDA versus if you look at Broadcom, that's ridiculous. Multiples, those multiples of multiples of what the multiples are for for Taiwan semi. So to me that's a perennial winner. It's got the least volatility in their earnings. Their capacity is sold out for years and years. So I don't know why that doesn't get a much higher multiple. Of course there should be a discount because China wants to take over Taiwan. But realistically I don't see that happening. So that's the one that's my biggest position out of all the semis and will continue to be for those reasons. Their margins also for manufacturers margins are in the 40s. When have you ever heard that for a capital company that's basically, you know, lots of capital expenditures because they pass the costs on.
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B
I guess I'm asking the desk collectively this question. You as well, Frank. But what's remarkable to me is quarter to date Apple is behind Alphabet in terms of performance. Very quietly Apple trades to a new all time high. And you know I talked about that. I had bought it personally in August and sold out of it recently because I don't want in both places we have it in the etf. But think about the resiliency of Apple and they haven't even delivered on Apple intelligence. Yes. What is that speaking towards? What is that the message is 2026. Is Apple going to be the name that maybe has the type of price performance that Alphabet had here in 25 where you had the skepticism coming into the year on Alphabet as it related to the regulatory challenges and search because of open air. Well there's skepticism going into 26 with Apple that has changed just because the stock is at an all time high. You're skeptical.
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Quiet all time high yesterday. But I know what you're saying. We're not talking as much about it.
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F
Apple is as close as you can get to technology version of utility. Their growth in revenues been kind of punk for the last five years. They're growth and earnings kind of punk. It's steady growing, good balance sheet. It's like utility. So you're paying for the brand pure and simple and you're paying for it being components in the indices which helps lift it up.
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B
Do you think they'll ever deliver on Apple intelligence?
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F
I think at some Point they will. But how? But they lag. Their technology is pretty much lagged all the time. But they've got such an installed base and Nobody's in the U.S. that is.
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A
I mean, but it's also growing in China. That's where the real upside, their sales are rising. So it's big here.
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F
But they were also hit pretty hard. And I wouldn't count on Apple, particularly as they move their supply chain out of China, you know, continuing to be to grow their sales at some point. You know, I think that you're going to see, as we have in the past, muted sales growth and maybe even declining sales growth.
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A
You know, Joe, to your point, and kind of sorry to cut you off, Jason, to play a Weiss's point, talking about Alphabet's other businesses, Morgan Stanley out with a note saying if the company can sell about a half a million chips, it changes their estimates. When it comes to the cloud business, it could change some of the moves when it comes to hyperscalers or who's in what position. Of course, Amazon's on top, Microsoft second, and Alphabet's kind of like a distant third. But if they can sell those chips, Liz, and they can grow that hyperscaler business, then get more of those workloads on there, doesn't that change other parts of this whole narrative about who's buying with who and who's doing what with who? And doesn't that kind of shake up how people are managing their money?
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D
Well, I mean, if it does change the narrative, honestly, I think it makes it a little bit stronger because then you don't have everybody relying on one or two companies to keep all of the circular funding alive. And just to go backwards to this Apple conversation for a second, don't we think that some of the price action has been maybe in anticipation of them announcing some sort of deal at some point? Right. And, and they were the one that had been left behind because they were late in some of this game. But perhaps some of the optimism is that, well, they're not going to stay out of the game forever, so eventually they figure it out somehow. I don't, I don't know, I'm speculating, but I think that some of the positivity has been just that there's been a rotation broadly in the market looking for other places to find upside, and people are looking at the places that have been left behind. But back to your original question. I think that if some of this competition does spread out, spread the love, so to speak, right. In all the spending, I think it makes the foundation stronger for the trade going forward.
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A
Back to that bifurcation chart. We can show that one more time. It's amazing. Some of the companies we see in red like an Nvidia down 10% this month after great earnings. I mean Joe, when have you seen a company punished after outstanding earnings, outstanding guidance like we've seen in video down almost 11%.
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B
That's, that's the trend in this quarter and that's where, where the market. I think that was the signal to the market that that battleship of momentum which began with the macro assets gold and bitcoin and the dollar reversing its downtrend in September. Then it lent itself to the equities asset class and Palantir was the signature for that. The Palantir report obviously was very strong.
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E
Continue.
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B
That was consistent what we've seen over the last several quarters. But it was a classic example of really good news and really bad price action. And I think that was right at that moment the message to the market okay, it's time to maybe work off some of the leverage. It's time to kind of take some liquidity out of the marketplace. And I think that's the exercise that the month of November has been all about. And I think it's represented that's exactly what happened in the case of Nvidia. And we've seen that in some other names like some of the semi equipment names like Lam Research and KLA Corp.
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A
Yeah, spread this conversation out a bit. By the way JP Morgan maintaining Amazon is a top pick. Jason, you own this one. They say you want to buy the post Q3 pullback. Agree with that take. Is this a good buying position when we're talking about Amazon?
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E
Yeah. So obviously Amazon has been the underperformer, one of the underperformers performers in the mag 7. Right. So for me, you know as I, as I look to this past quarter where we saw a reacceleration of growth of US was 20% growth last quarter it was roughly around 17. They, they maintained margins on the retail business. I think this, this trainium chip story, this next iteration story I think is going to be the thing that we need to focus on. You know from a proprietary perspective not being as reliant on Nvidia as some of the other players. I think that's going to be important. And then I like this, this Project Rayner project that I think is, is going to be accretive for the stock in the long term in terms of super compute. So I think they have a lot of levers to pull. And I think this is an attractive place too as well for Amazon as a, as a new shareholder potential.
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A
I mean a lot of levers have an ad business as well. Weiss, you also on Amazon, is this a place you want to buy? And I know you said you're not running a one stock portfolio, if you're running a three stock portfolio, you want to add this one.
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F
It's not one of my top three holdings, large holding, but some one of my top three. I like Amazon look, it's a good story.
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B
It's steady.
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F
I think Jassy was the right time for the transition. Bezos did an unbelievable job, incredible job. But it was time for Jassy to come in and put in some cost controls and a little better process in terms of spending. So we're there. It's on to me, it's on a glide path as as far permanent compounder and I think it's going to do well. And all the cloud companies can do very well because just the massive trove of data the cloud has to accommodate now that comes with spending and we don't hear as much about Amazon spending, but Amazon's going to have to keep spending as well. So I like the stock quite a bit. It's just not a top three holding for me. Not far from it. Just not a top three.
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A
So Joe, we're looking ahead to 20266 right now to the earnings growth. Is that going to come from tech? Is that going to come from comm services? Is that where you need to put the money as we go into not only the last month of the year, but go into the new year.
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B
So obviously the last several quarters, the overwhelming majority of earnings growth has been attributable to artificial intelligence and therefore communication service and technology names. But I also think you've seen strong earnings growth in other sectors as well. And as you turn the calendar into 2026 into a year which I believe is going to have elevated volatility and is really going to be about idiosyncratic stories. And it probably means when I say elevated volatility, I think you have to understand your positioning might be a little bit different in 2026. You might not be able to extend some of the leverage very comfortably that you have able we were able to do in 24 and 25 in anticipation of what the beginning of an easier Federal Reserve monetary policy cycle. I think at 2026 that probably sunsets at some point, even though we have further rate cuts in front of us. But I think you're seeing an awakening for the quality factor where momentum absolutely dominated it in 2025. I think over the last several weeks the market saying yes, we want the quality of health care and I think it's reflected in what we're just seeing today. Look at the list of 52 week highs. We've spent the majority of the show talking about technology, rightfully so. But there are other names today making 52 week highs in the financial sector. Regional Bank, Cincinnati Financial, GM, General Motors is making a 52 week high as we speak. Las Vegas, Sands, Medtronic, Monster, tjx, prologis, Rollins in the industrial space. So there's other places you could go, other opportunities. I think that's an important theme in 2026. It's going to get harder in 26. I can't see how it can't. That doesn't mean it's a lower market. It's just going to get tougher.
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D
I think you make an excellent point about how the dynamics are going to change in 26. I just want to spend a minute on this. We've had a couple of rate cuts by the Fed. Looking now again like we're going to have one in December, in 2026. The thesis seems to be that we're going to have some sort of cyclical reacceleration. Productivity is going to come into play in a big way. GDP growth is going to stay healthy. The labor market might stay stable if there is a reacceleration. To Joe's point, the rate cuts will stop at some point because they would just have to. And we've, we've seen this movie before. So if there's a reacceleration, maybe it's driven by technology and the optimism and the spending around technology. But at some point inflation starts to either come back a little bit or at least plateau and the Fed has to stop right in that reacceleration. The sectors that tend to do well are not typically the high flyers. And the growth sectors you have to start thinking about some of the more value centric names and the sectors that would benefit from cyclicality. So I think financials is still on that list. Health care obviously on that list. You have to think about maybe even materials in some ways and then add to that that 2026 is a midterm election year usually pretty tough for the market. So for looking at places to hide from volatility again, things like maybe even consumer staples coming into play, health care again coming into play. So I think there will be a much different leadership picture in 26 and the market will start to set up for that at the end of.
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B
That's a great point because if nine months from now we're talking about we need another rate cut, then you're not going to get the double digit earnings growth expected right now for 26. That means there's a bigger problem in the economy for sure that's going to affect earnings.
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A
You know, to your point, by the way, bank of America with its 2026 outlook 70, 100s and P price target is about a 4% higher move from where we are right now, overweight staples. So a lot of people seeing it the way you're seeing it. All right, coming up here on halftime, Retail's big moment as we kick off the holiday rush, how the committee is playing that sector. Much more halftime coming up in two minutes.
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C
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A
After a volatile retail earnings week, the group now heads into its next big test where the demand holds up beyond Black Friday. Courtney Reagan joins us now with much more on what to expect. Hey, Court.
- [28:07]
H
Hi Frank. So the next five days are the most important stretch of the year for retail. Adobe says 17% of total online holiday spending will happen during Cyber Week, but physical stores remain a big part of the equation Too. The national retail Federation predicts 186.9 million Americans will shop in some form between between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday. That's more than ever before, by their estimation. Now, shoppers tell Deloitte they'll spend about 60% of their budget online and 40% in stores over these next five days. Most retailers are not opening stores on Thanksgiving Day, but will offer Doorbusters online. So Adobe expects online sales to grow 5% on Thursday. And even with the rise in online shopping, Black Friday still matters. It's forecast to be the biggest in store shopping day of the year, according to traffic counting firms and surveys. And retail next, even if it's not as big as it once was, Adobe forecasts US E commerce sales will grow 8.3% on Black Friday from last Black Friday. And while Salesforce says Black Friday surpassed Cyber Monday and sales last year and will again this year. So some debate, but it's still big. Retailers save deals for Cyber Monday, and consumers know it. Possibly the best discounts of the year for electronics, apparel and computers, with total online sales expected to grow 6.3% on Cyber Monday. Now, consumers may feel less confident this holiday season based on economic surveys and what we've heard from consumer confidence, but they're still buying, according to many retail CEOs over the last 10 days, even if doing so choicefully, which is a word they're all using, particularly, the executives say, when there's perceived value and in value, that's more than just price. For instance, Dick's Sporting Goods Executive Chairman Ed Stack says, when I'm talking about value, I'm talking about an item that also perhaps helps my performance if I'm an athlete. Frank.
- [30:01]
A
All right, Courtney Reagan, live from the Nasdaq. Courtney, thank you very much. Got quite a bit of retail ownership here, but, Liz, I wanted to start with you, the consumer. We had a lot of questions about the consumer going into the holiday season. Bank of America with a note saying, last week we saw holiday spending up four and a half percent year over year. Seems like a kind of bullish sign going into the holiday season.
- [30:18]
D
Yeah, I mean, and Courtney's data shows us more bullish reasons to be excited about it. So I mentioned this at the top of the show, that consumer discretionary has been one of the strongest sectors actually out of this volatility that we've just seen. And I think that that's a good sign. A lot of times you look at discretionary versus staples as a signal of cyclicality. We'll see what this holiday season holds. I imagine that there's going to be a lot of news about discounting and incentives and all of that. But into 26, again, expecting some stimulus, right? Expecting some tax refunds that are going up, I think the consumer has a chance here and they're going to have to fight for it because we're still up against some inflationary pressures. But I think the consumer has a chance, so I wouldn't count it out. And Discretionary and Staples have been really poor performers year to date, relatively speaking. So if that cyclical recovery and reacceleration does start to take shape in 26, I think we. Discretionary might be a nice place.
- [31:11]
F
You know, I think it depends where you are. So we're talking to a number of Freight companies, number 4 PLs, 3 PLs, etc.
- [31:20]
A
That handle it.
- [31:21]
F
And I'm hearing consistently that volumes are down 10 to 20%, which means the order books for retailers are down 10 to 20%. And I think you've got a bifurcated economy, which is that people that are under pressure from inflation, from housing costs, from price of food, vegetables, which the White House has now identified, that doesn't leave a lot for discretionary spending. So you take that and I think that's about half to two thirds of the economy. So if you take the upper end, that's probably where you want to be because they're not as pushing back. But Frank, one other important thing. I'm getting so many texts about my jacket. Some love it, some hate it. So I'd like to ask all the viewers to email Frank Holland directly. You can find his email address and just vote whether you like it or not. Thanks, Frank. I think we know the reason.
- [32:11]
A
More importantly, wow, did you see that coming up? I didn't see that coming up.
- [32:15]
B
More importantly, I fixed my time.
- [32:17]
A
You did fix yourself.
- [32:18]
B
Thank you. Of the 11s and P sectors, when I study how momentum in each of the sectors is working, working as a factor. Consumer Discretionary is actually the one sector where we have a very low success rate. It seems as though over the last five years it's been a series of fits and starts. It looks like the momentum is beginning and then the momentum trails off business and you find yourself in a different place. Let's take Amazon and put it off to the side. Let's take Tesla and put it off to the side. I'm talking about the air lines, I'm talking about a lot of the apparel names that you've mentioned previously. The only places right now that it seems to be working is an off price. So tjx, really good. Ross Star, really good. But then you hear from Burlington the other day, and we own Burlington and it was awful. They're talking about warm weather impacting traffic. So it's, you know, the warmth. Warm weather is okay for TJX and Burlington. Not okay. Rather, it's good for TJX and for Rostlers, not for Burlington. So it's very, very idiosyncratic. It's very difficult to kind of establish any degree of strong momentum. We've got it right now on ebay. You have it in Las Vegas Sands. It fell apart. Ulta, it fell apart. Williams, Sonoma. Garmin was a name I talked about frequently. Doordash was the name I talked about frequently. And the momentum is reversed there. Very, very difficult to play momentum in consumer discretionary.
- [33:50]
A
You know, we got to go. But really to your point and Weiss's point, not about his jacket, did you realize that TJX has four times the market cap of Target? Just kind of speaking of that shift, it's kind of a big shift in the market when it comes to retail. All right, we do want to get to the headlines right now. Christina Parts and Evolis standing by with the very latest. Christina?
- [34:05]
D
Thank you, Frank.
- [34:06]
I
Well, Israel handed over the remains of 15 Palestinians today after Hamas returned a deceased Israeli hostage just yesterday. Now just two deceased hostages remain in Gaza, meaning the first phase of a US Brokered cease fire is nearing its end. A Hamas spokesperson said the militant group is committed to recovering the remains of the final two hostages. But efforts have been complicated by the widespread destruction of the enclave. A federal peers court upheld a nearly $1 million penalty against President Trump and his lawyer Alina Hunter. Today, a unanimous panel found their 2022 lawsuit accusing Hillary Clinton, former FBI director James Comey and others of a conspiracy linking his 2016 campaign to Russia actually lacked merit and was frivolous. And the Olympic flame was lit today in Greece so it could begin its journey to the Milan Cortina Winter Games. The ceremony was moved indoors because of bad weather. The flame will take a week long route through Greece before it heads to Italy to pass through 60 cities and 300 towns ahead of the February 6th opening ceremonies halftime report. And Steve Weiss's jacket. We'll be right back.
- [35:15]
G
Did you know you can opt out of winter with VRBO? Save up to $1,500 for booking a month long stay. When thousands of sunny homes are waiting for you, why subject yourself to the cold? Put the snow shovel down. Put the Parco back in the closet. And don't you dare scrape another windshield. Slip into some flip flops. Consider a sunless tan and use the monthly stays filter to save up to $1,500. Book your warm getaway at vrbo.com Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning, and effective communication, and you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella.
- [36:13]
B
Edu thanks to TikTok ads, I was.
- [36:16]
A
Able to open up a business with.
- [36:18]
B
My childhood friend and even hire employees. My name is Julian and I am one of the founders of the Stack.
- [36:23]
I
We are an exotic snack company.
- [36:25]
B
We import snacks from all over the world. We had over $100,000 in sales from our TikTok ads in the first month.
- [36:30]
A
So our orders went from five a.
- [36:32]
B
Day to over 250 orders a day. You definitely have to use TikTok ads. TikTok for business is helping owners like you reach new customers every day.
- [36:40]
A
Head over to get started.TikTok.com TikTok ads and we are back on the ads on report. Let's get to some committee. Stocks on the move today. We're gonna start with Autodesk popping on stronger than expected earnings. That name's in the Jyoti ETF also an upgrade from Deutsch. A price target raised to 375 up from 345. Joe.
- [36:59]
B
So 50% of their revenue is derived from architecture, construction, engineering and that is related to the infrastructure build out for data centers and artificial intelligence. The revenue growth was remarkably strong there, up 23%. And that is indicative of what Liz mentioned before, where the thematic investment of artificial intelligence is going beyond what we knew. The narrow list of Nvidia and other names and technology. It's expanding and I think that expands further in 26 and this represents it.
- [37:36]
A
I got one more your names. It's workday slipping on earnings. It was really about margin guidance that seemed to weigh on this.
- [37:43]
B
The guidance wasn't good. Here look, the stock is down 20, 23% on a one year basis. For us that means it has lost any positive momentum. Obviously I can't tell you what we're going to do but there'll be a rebalance and we'll adjust accordingly. But there was cautious guidance. Whatever you cite as the reason, whether it's federal funding or the professional revenue services beginning to contract significantly, looking into 26, there's not excitement about the ability, ability of this company to be able to grow.
- [38:14]
A
I've got one more. United Rentals got you this one quickly maintained a buy a B of a part of the story. Believe it or not, this is not funny. Portable toilet peers distressed and they're bullish on United Rentals because of that the other companies call uss.
- [38:26]
B
And I think this is a little bit of a muted response. The stock had made its high back on October 16th. It's pulled back since. It's at 814. Need a point of reference. You have the 200 day moving average sitting down at around 783 below.
- [38:41]
A
All right. United Rental shares up just about a half a percent coming up next on halftime, Mike Santoli joins us with his MIDDAY word. We're back right after this break. All right, we're back on halftime. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joining us with his midday word. Mike, I'm going to ask you the same question I've been asking everybody here at post 9. The action that we've seen in November. Do you think that's a sign of what's to come in December? Obviously tomorrow's a holiday. Friday's a half, half day. What are we expecting going forward next week?
- [39:05]
J
Well, which action in November are we going to key off of? Was it the real weakness that we saw in the first three weeks or the fact that we did get back into gear late last week and essentially reassert the bullish trend? I think tactically it's been pretty textbook, you know, support that was widely watched late last week held, you did get good broad movement off of that oversold condition. And now today you're extending the upside on a day when everybody knows is sort of an upward bias and you drift higher before and after Thanksgiving. I do think that we're not that far from a point where you'd have to say it starts to get demanding again. I'll say that because last year you had really strong markets all year into Thanksgiving. You rallied before and after and there really wasn't much left to the upside over the next month or so. You actually peaked at like the first week of December, finished three and a half percent lower. I'm not saying it's going to happen again, but I think when we get to the point where people feel like it's in the bag, we're going to finish the year strong. That's when it starts to get a little bit more demanding.
- [40:07]
F
All right.
- [40:08]
A
Mike Santoy with his midday word. Mike, have a great Thanksgiving. Good to see you as always. All right. Coming up next on Halftime stocks to be thankful for, we're going to review some of the committee's biggest winners of this year. If those names can just keep on giving half times best right after this. And welcome back to Halftime. Out of Thanksgiving, it's time to go around the desk and say which stocks they're everybody's the most thankful for. We took a look at the committee's best performing stocks so far this year. Jason, we're going to start with you. Pretty good list, Alphabet, Goldman Sachs and Uber.
- [40:36]
E
Yeah, listen we've talked a lot about Alphabet. I mean obviously up 70% year to date. So well vertically integrated, whether it's YouTube search in the ad business, that's how obviously done really well. And it's great to see Sergey back, you know, kind of that founders led energy which I think is going to push the stock. Goldman Sachs is another one up 42% this year. You know, revenue was up 18% in the last quarter. IB was up 42%. Advisory up 60. I think with directionally what's going on with with the Fed and rates being lowered, I think GS can continue to do well. Last one here is Uber for me. You know, mobility Delivery both up 20%. I think the discretionary, as Liz mentioned earlier sector can continue to move somewhat of a bifurcated consumer. Absolutely. But I think Uber is one to play here.
- [41:26]
A
Liz, you're thankful for some ETFs gold, obviously the gold ETF, the FXI, Chinese Internet ETF. And then you've been talking a lot about health care, the xlv Health Care ETF up about 15% year to date.
- [41:37]
D
Yeah, health, healthcare was one of my calls for 2025 and I looked wrong until about early August. It's all been back end loaded. But I will take it. Health care has clawed its way to the top half of sectors in the S and P. And I still think it's a great opportunity into 2026. I'm very thankful for XLV and then the Chinese ETF. FXI checks a large cap China ETF, which was a pretty controversial call earlier this year, but it's worked out well, up almost 30% year to date. And then gold is a story we all know very, very well.
- [42:05]
A
All right, why is your top three, you got G Renova, you bought this one in October, Alphabet full year and then Caterpillar, you Bought that about the halfway mark this year. Yeah.
- [42:13]
F
Let me set the record straight. I'm not thankful for G, for Nova. I'm actually down on it. I could care less about how much money people made that owned it before me, but I'll fill in that blank. Fta. I am. That stock's been a great stock. I think it's going to keep going. And look, the core portfolio that I have have, it's the Amazon, it's the Met, even though it's down, had great performance and spurred some quite well.
- [42:36]
A
All right, Joe, you got the last word on this one. Micron's one of yours. This is when you added in the rebalance. I'm looking right here. It's up over 170% since you added it in the rebalance.
- [42:45]
B
So therefore it's guilty until it proves itself innocent. A recent addition has to prove itself out. Why? Because we could be late just like we were on Crypto. I feel. Feel better about the others. Newmont mining, long the GLD. I think there's further upside in gold. And McKesson, I've owned that since March. I like health care going into 26.
- [43:04]
A
Yeah. I want to amend. It's up 173%. You added in October. So you have some of those gains. Absolutely.
- [43:09]
B
Knowledge we could be late like we were in crypto.
- [43:11]
A
All right, thanks a lot, Joe. All right, straight ahead here on Halftime. This set up on some big software names. They're reporting their earnings next week. We got much more halftime coming up right after this. And welcome back to Halftime. We're back with the trade update on Zoom. Taking a look at it right now. Pulling back more than 1%. Joe, this was your final trade yesterday.
- [43:29]
B
It was. And it's important to. To manage the risk. When you think that potentially you've suggested something or you have a position that's going the wrong way. When we left yesterday, I said I thought Zoom potentially could break out technically towards $100. The high of the day was 9106. Index at 106. It pulled back thereafter. Right now it's trading $85. So it went back into the range. The low on Monday was 7859. That's the day before they. That's the day before they reported that afternoon the earnings. The stock price should not go below 7859. If it does, you need to reverse your bias here or neutralize your bias. And obviously I'm completely wrong, but I'm troubled by the fact that the stock has broken down. From where we were when we left the show yesterday at $90. Back into the range, deep into the range.
- [44:22]
A
All right, again, shares of Zoom pulling back about one and a quarter. We get the setup on some software names reporting their earnings next week. We're going to start with CrowdStrike. Joe, this is one that you own personally. Reports after the Bell on Tuesday.
- [44:32]
B
The annual recovery recurring revenue should be strong here. The agent security tool that should work well. Options of pricing in here. A 7% move. Look for margin somewhere around 21 to 22%. The stock has pulled back off of Palo Alto earnings. But keep in mind a lot of that was because of the Chronosphere deal after the cyber deal. I don't think it's suggestive of any change in cybersecurity fundamentals overall.
- [45:00]
A
All right, Jason Snowflake after the Bell.
- [45:02]
E
On Wednesday, data warehousing, very important. Kind of all the trends and tailwinds that we see. The stock is up 60% year to date. The EPS doubled off a 32% revenue growth in the last quarter. New go to market strategy which could be tricky. So let's see how that works out. But I like this stock going forward.
- [45:19]
A
All right, look at Snowflake pretty much flat right now over the last month, pulling back about 3%. All right, stay with us right here on Halftime. Final trades coming up. We are back on halftime with final trades. Weiss, kick us off fta.
- [45:32]
F
It's FTA Aviation. Look, I think this perfect way to extend your portfolio beyond tech and interest rates coming down. Drive more demand as a lender to air aircraft companies.
- [45:44]
E
Snipe, I like Eaton here is down 12% this month. It's finding support. The 200 day. I'm Long Liz.
- [45:51]
D
I know we're supposed to talk about turkey this week, but I'm from Wisconsin, so I want to talk about cows, cash cows. Companies with high free cash flow. And the biggest sector is health care.
- [46:01]
B
Joe with the last word, is that your favorite etf? No, that's xpi. Keep talking about xpi. I have a position in it. I keep buying more as it moves higher and higher. It's going to 125.
- [46:11]
E
Yeah.
- [46:11]
A
XBI is doing really well this month, I believe.
- [46:13]
B
Really well. Right.
- [46:14]
A
So also the IBV with Jason Snipe on it that's gonna do it for us here on Halftime. Have a great holiday. I hope you enjoy yourself. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast you can always catch us.
- [46:27]
B
Live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [46:34]
G
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning, and effective communication, and you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella Eduardo.