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Halftime Report
The S&P Crosses Another Milestone 1/28/26
00:47:20
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate the S&P hitting $7,000 for the first time ever. What does it mean for the market and your money. Plus, the desk discusses their top energy plays for 2026. And later, we hit some Committee names reporting earnings tomorrow morning. Investment Committee Disclosures
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- [00:00]
Jenny Harrington
What does it mean to live a rich life?
- [00:03]
Bryn Talkington
It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes.
- [00:08]
Jenny Harrington
And everything in between.
- [00:10]
Bryn Talkington
With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and of life, your Edward Jones financial advisor will be there to help you move ahead with confidence. Because with all you've done to find your rich, we'll do all we can to help you keep enjoying it. Edward Jones Member sipc Thy ticket lady Jennifer of Coolidge.
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Jenny Harrington
Well, many thanks, good sir.
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Bryn Talkington
Here is my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance fairs.
- [00:41]
Jenny Harrington
Yeah, they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Getith with the times.
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Bryn Talkington
With the times.
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Jenny Harrington
You're playing the lute.
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Dom Choo
Yeah.
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Jenny Harrington
And it sounds pretty good, right?
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Scott Wapner
Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nielsen report. I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wagner. Front and center this hour, tax resurgence. The S and P hitting 7000 for the first time ever, just as mega cap earnings loom large. And time tonight we trade it with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour today, Joe Terranova, Jenny Harrington, Surat Seti and Bryn Talkington. We will go to the markets as we await these big events this afternoon. Dow the only thing in the green, albeit slightly. Everything else is just a little bit red. So we did Joe get 7,000. We're two hours away from the Fed decision, a handful of hours away from Metta, Microsoft and Tesla as we begin those mega cap earnings. You know you got that, you got gold and silver, which we're ripping again today. The dollar is very much in focus which was down to a four year low. The President saying I think that I think it's great. And then the Treasury Secretary making his comments. The US Always has a strong dollar policy. Okay, what do you think?
- [02:13]
Joe Terranova
Volatility up four and a half percent today. So maybe the message from that increase in volatility is what we've seen in the last several days, which is taken the market to the new highs. It's really concentrated. We've lost that broadening out narrative. It's not in play anym. So for me personally, in the last several weeks I've been buying energy names. I bought Twilio, I introduced further positioning and zoom. So I'm buying over the last 10 days. Here we are Today I think it's a moment we have to take a pause. You have to take pause, you have.
- [02:47]
Scott Wapner
To take a step back.
- [02:48]
Joe Terranova
You have to allow for the earnings to come out from the hyperscalers. Let's hear tonight from Metta and Microsoft. Remember something on those stocks. Metta is down 11% since its earnings report. Microsoft is down 10% from its earnings report.
- [03:04]
Vlad Tenev
Why?
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Joe Terranova
It's because there is this perceived risk surrounding spending and the reality is we need to hear tonight what the return on investment is for that spending itself. So I think the market, we achieved new highs. Great, congratulations on that. But we're doing it in a very narrow capacity and I just think it's time to maybe take a step back, look around, don't get too excited about taking on more risk.
- [03:28]
Scott Wapner
Well Brent, you know I wish we could show this which we had yesterday and maybe we can be the one week move in some of the these mega caps because yes, they have underperformed and if you look at them year to date it's sort of, you know, whatever. But if you look over the last week, many of them have been running into these prints, Metta included. And I wonder what that does to expectations heading into this afternoon when it all begins.
- [03:54]
Bryn Talkington
I don't think it does much right now because if I actually break these charts down, you know, Microsoft is trading below the 200 day moving average. And you know Scott, there's an adage, it's pretty correct, nothing good happens under the 200 day. So it would really be great if after Microsoft prints we could get back above that. I think so many people have confidence in Satya and Amy Hood. I know I do. And I think to Joe's point with Metta, the return on capital, they don't have a cloud business. Are they going to build one? Think about the CapEx spend there. That just seems like a really poor choice of, of capital at this point in the cloud cycle. And so I just think that Metta and Microsoft specifically are really under the scrutiny of investors to say what are you doing for me? What are you doing for me? How are you monetizing? I think Microsoft's in a much better position because they do have cloud, they have so many other business units whereas Microsoft, whereas, whereas Metta, you know, are they going to charge for ads now or charge for premium service on Instagram? Are we actually going to do that? So I think you'll continue to see dispersion among these names all year long.
- [05:02]
Scott Wapner
You know Jenny, we like when meta reports because it's the only of the mega caps that you own. So it's our only opportunity to get you into the mix when we talk about these earnings reports and what your expectations are. Again, it was a tremendous disappointment, at least the price action in the name after the last report and we've had a nice ramp now into this one. So what are you thinking about?
- [05:25]
Jenny Harrington
Well, just to be fair and clear, just because I don't own them doesn't hold me back from talking about them.
- [05:31]
Scott Wapner
As we, as we've learned.
- [05:32]
Jenny Harrington
So okay, the way Bryn said it, where she said we're going to be investors are only saying what can you do for me now that's exactly where we're at. Bryn summarized it perfectly. So they're forecasted to spend $120 $230 billion in capex this year and we're watching to see if that's justified. All the rest is easy, right? They have a reasonable multiple. They trade at 20 some odd times. They have really strong earnings growth ahead. Revenues are expected to have grown 22% in the fourth quarter. So, so the numbers are easy. It's really, it's really exactly what Brent said. What, what are you doing for me? How are you going to spend that wisely?
- [06:06]
Scott Wapner
So Rod, there are those who think that these earnings reports bring the herd right back to the names. That and that's what you've started to see in anticipation of these reports being good. Deutsche talks today about fresh highs attention might swing back to tech, that all of these other names have stolen some of the limelight. But you're going to get the spotlight back on these names. It's very much like what Wolf is talking about today where they say the broadening out, it stops with big tech earnings because they are the catalyst to get people back into all of these names. Do you agree with that?
- [06:42]
Surat Seti
I do somewhat. And I think what you have to look at is did that was the message received after the earnings last quarter that hey, we're looking at return on investment like Jenny said, we're looking at depreciating expense. That's going to be important. And also I think there are good tells in the economy in terms of advertising and Metta, you know, what are they going to talk about? So I think that's going to be, you know, important. And Microsoft has a software issue. So all the software stocks are not doing well. So the question is can they talk through that to say hey, our recurring revenue is increasing.
- [07:15]
Scott Wapner
I mean if there's one software company that shouldn't be disrupted tremendously by AI, wouldn't it be Microsoft? For the most obvious of reasons, yeah.
- [07:24]
Surat Seti
And I think the question is will that happen and will they show the acceleration of their earnings, which, you know, we're Microsoft holders and we think of the seven they're in the best place.
- [07:35]
Joe Terranova
To grow that it's easy to look at Microsoft and to be able to validate the return on investment because you see the growth in Azure, they have the cloud business. I don't know how you get that validation. Jenny, with Metta, is it ad targeting, is it engagement? How do you realize that there actually is a return on the spending? And then if you look forward and we own better. Okay, so we see the same things that you see over the long term. But if you look into 26, the revenue guidance, that's pretty soft for this company coming in negative.
- [08:06]
Jenny Harrington
But this is, this is emblematic of a bigger problem, which is like how do you know when that 120 to 130 billion is well spent?
- [08:14]
Joe Terranova
For meta.
- [08:15]
Jenny Harrington
For meta. But it's a bigger picture thing too.
- [08:17]
Joe Terranova
I don't think it is for Microsoft.
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Scott Wapner
I think that's kind of the point that Joe's raising. It seems to be. Okay, hold on. It just seems to be easier to track the return on investment for some of these other names rather than a meta. Okay, we have an open model. It's like, where's this all going? We're going to be aggressive and we're going to spend, but we're not exactly sure how to quantify this return to justify the stock market should go fine.
- [08:48]
Jenny Harrington
So if you want to be really specific, easy to measure for Microsoft. It's certainly easy to measure for a company like Nvidia. But when I said emblematic for the bigger picture, there's a lot of spending out there really broadly. Names that aren't in the top 10 that we're talking about, and that's the challenge is we're not going to know until 27, 28 and further.
- [09:06]
Scott Wapner
They hold this conversation just for a minute. Let me jump down to Washington. We, we do have some breaking news. Our Eamon Javers has that for us. What are we learning here? Eamonn?
- [09:13]
Joe Terranova
Yeah, Scott, that's right. Given that Jay Powell is going to be speaking publicly this afternoon, I want to update you on what we know about that investigation into Powell and the Federal Reserve. And remember that investigation was being done out of the U.S. attorney's office for the District of Columbia. And I can tell you that a source familiar with the investigation tells me that the investigation is still ongoing, although we haven't heard very much about it over the past week or so. It is still an ongoing issue. And I'm also told, Scott, by a source familiar with the situation, that the Fed has not yet turned over documents pursuant to the subpoenas that were sent to the Fed. Now, the question is when is the deadline for the Fed to cooperate with those subpoenas? We don't know that for sure. So we don't have any indication that the Fed has blown past a deadline, for example, for turning over documents. What we know right now is that the Fed has not, as we sit here right now, turned over documents pursuant to the subpoenas that it received from the U.S. attorney's office. So we're going to continue to get into this and to figure out exactly where this investigation stands. But I'm being told that it is an active investigation and that those documents have not yet, however, been turned over. Scott, back over.
- [10:29]
Scott Wapner
Interesting. Thank you, Eamon. It's interesting timing for your reporting, of course, because today is the decision, and more importantly for some, because no move on interest rates is expected, that the news conference is going to be maybe more dramatic than it normally is. Of course, the Fed chair is going to comment on where he sees inflation going, the economy and potentially even interest rates, but going to be asked about the investigation and these new, as reported by Eamon Javers, developments that not only is the investigation ongoing, but that these documents that we were requested have not yet been turned over. So we'll pay attention to all of that. Doesn't even take into consideration the fact that we're still waiting to find out who the next Fed chair is going to be. And it was the treasury secretary telling us this morning, just a little while ago, in fact, that, you know, four people are still in the mix. So we'll follow all those developments as we move closer to that decision. And then we've got Gundlach on the back of that this afternoon. Back to the conversation at hand and thanks for sending it back to me to get to to Amen. But perhaps nobody has as much to prove in some respects today than Metta, just simply because of what the stock reaction was after the last report.
- [11:42]
Jenny Harrington
Maybe. I mean, nobody within the very small pool of mega cap tech, I think, of it more broadly.
- [11:48]
Scott Wapner
Well, that's a very big pool. Let's see. Let's be clear.
- [11:51]
Jenny Harrington
Is it?
- [11:51]
Scott Wapner
Well, it's not a baby pool.
- [11:53]
Jenny Harrington
Okay.
- [11:53]
Scott Wapner
What do you mean? So why are we having that conversation? It's like the biggest stocks in the market. Come on.
- [11:58]
Jenny Harrington
Okay, Come on. So if we're thinking about, to answer the question though, why is Microsoft up 9%, 8% over the past 52 weeks when, when matters flat? It's because of that and what I've been arguing all year and this is why I keep trying to go like bigger and just out of the mega caps is the further you are away from being able to prove exactly how AI and this huge CapEx spend, the further you are away, the more dampened your returns. Now it may set it up like a quarter coil and a spring for the future. Maybe they spend that $120 billion and it's unbelievable in three years, right? Everybody already knows. Maybe Microsoft, you know, maybe it's priced in on Microsoft, people can see that. Maybe Microsoft chugs along and, and Mattis, it's flat and then springs, I don't know. But you can take it out to even the stodgy stocks in my dividend portfolio where I can look at all of those and say hey, in two years, three years, four years, I think I, I think spending now is going to, to be very beneficial. But the share prices are getting no return. No return, love right now because it's too far away. So I think that's the challenge here is just saying like there's going to be more beneficiaries than just Microsoft. But until you can see it, it's the share, won't get the share.
- [13:05]
Scott Wapner
I feel like arguably the most important node out today is this one from Wolf that I've already mentioned. Just considering how the trade has been in the market to start the year. Their idea that the broadening out trade stops with big tech earnings and they suggest the combination of solid results, lower valuations because the stocks have come in and continued tailwinds will likely pull investor interest back into those companies. That to me is what people need to know, what they, what they're dying to know. Should I continue to lean into the broadening trade or am I going to be reminded this afternoon of exactly why we were in these stocks and overweight them in the first place? And that's where we need to return.
- [13:51]
Bryn Talkington
I couldn't disagree more with that note from Wolff. The broadening out will continue for the right reasons is that you have, the economy is picking up steam. We're going to have really big tax refunds. No tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, etcetera, etcetera. And so I think that broadening out, whether it's in the US or internationally is going to continue. To me the question is can these Stocks catch up. And I think that the concern tonight is we know that Mark Zuckerberg likes to pull up that checkbook and write big checks. So as a non investor in Met, A direct investor, is this going to be a Metaverse 2.0 where there's just a and overspend? And I think with Microsoft, what's very distinctive is that don't forget they own the IP from OpenAI. They own it. They also have Copilot. So you can see that as Copilot kind of gets some of its sea legs and people start to actually use it, they actually will be able to monetize copilot which is what, $30 ahead versus the other software companies which are still trying to figure it out. So I don't think today is going to be any type of reshifting. I think you want to continue to have a broadening out trade. And to me my question would be can these companies catch up?
- [15:07]
Joe Terranova
The reason why I said at the top of the show, I think it's a moment where you don't add to risk. I think you're patient that you absorb the information is because the answer to the question do we go in the direction where the broadening out narrative returns or does the Mag 7 continue to take the lead as they have in the last five days? It has to play out here over the next several weeks. And one of the things where I am not confident to say, okay, let's go right back to the broadening trade is because we're seeing weakness in financials, we're seeing weakness in health care and we're seeing weakness in industrials and they were the anchor of the revival in the broadening out trade and in particular for small caps which are important in that broadening out.
- [15:51]
Scott Wapner
Okay, so every sector surrott is positive this year except for financials. What happened to all those calls about financials, financials, financials, not singling out Belsky who literally said those words, but many others have said that was the area you want to lean into. Deregulation, tax benefits, M and a, animal spirits, IPOs, blah blah, blah, the whole thing.
- [16:17]
Surat Seti
So I do think the fundamentals are still there for financials. They ran quite a bit ahead of that. And then I think you've had a couple of overhangs. You've had the credit card issue with the 10% that had some of the banks pull back. Then you've had the, you know, some of these can't buy real estate. So that kind of pulled back some of the banks. So now it's an execution, wait and see. I still like the Morgan Stanley's JP Morgans, you know the visas mastercards of the world. But I think you have to be selective and you have to understand what you own, whether it's regionals or some of the others in there.
- [16:49]
Scott Wapner
Oh no, I mean you have to be, excuse me, selective. It's like Goldman Sachs is up 6%, Schwab is up three and a half. These are year to date. Morgan Stanley's up to everything else on my list is down, cities down, Amex is down, Black Stone's down, B of a is down, JPM's down, Visa, KKR, Mastercard, Apollo, Capital One are all, are all lower. I mean how do you know where to be selective and where not to be? What are you supposed to do? Like anticipate where the next missive out of the administration is going to come from? The dream of, you know.
- [17:28]
Surat Seti
No, but missive of the administration could come from any sector and we know that it came on health care before, you know, it could come on anything. I think when you look at that financial list, I'll go back to the point I made. The credit card companies got hurt the most. Whether it was Citigroup or American Express, they were down negative because that's what kind of happened. But fundamentally the Morgan Stanley's, JP Morgan's of the world have really good earnings coming forward. So the question is, you know, if they execute an M and A picks up an IPO activity and wealth is good, those are the companies you want to own.
- [17:58]
Scott Wapner
What I mean but wouldn't the market be anticipating that? Those are the companies that execute, those are the companies that would most benefit from the very environment that people are all bulled up about. The stock market itself.
- [18:11]
Jenny Harrington
I think the market is anticipating that. And the thing is the bank's version of all balled up and great numbers is still pretty tame compared to other areas. So I think the reason that a JP Morgan is down 6% this year is because it's still up 15% over the last 52 weeks. And I think in the big mega, in the big cap financials there are valuation hurdles that they can't get past. And so what we've seen over the decades is that in general investors say hey, we're willing to pay 10 to 14 times, we're willing to pay 14 to 20, 18 times for this. But there are, there are multiples that people will not cross for these because the earnings will never be plus 60% for three years in a row. The earnings can only go so far. But if we zoom out on financials, it's so interesting because you need to look at fintech and fintech is, is really under attack from AI. And as there's all the commentary about, about AI, you know, and peak software and AI eating software, there's a huge part of the financial sector that's going to be eaten up. And one of the other things that's in there too is like facts that research, it was down 40% last year. Why? Because it's going to eat it up. So as soon as you get out of the mega big cap financials, there's a really different story that's not so pretty there.
- [19:23]
Surat Seti
Sure.
- [19:23]
Scott Wapner
But if I, if I told you coming into the year, let's just say it, okay, yes, you're going to get deregulation, economic growth is going to be way better than people expect. Earnings growth is going to top even high estimates to this point. And you're going to have an environment where you're going to have more deals, more capital markets activity, companies are going to come public, more so than they have in the past few years when the gates were proverbially closed. You would have said, undoubtedly great environment for the financials.
- [19:55]
Joe Terranova
And that's the semantics of the market. Because what you're doing is you're addressing all the tailwinds that were very well known by all of us in the financial services industry. And I don't think many people pushed up against that. I think in terms of positioning, everyone came into the year saying, okay, let's go overweight financials. We have significant ownership of financials. And what I see as so far, where the strength is in the financial sector is related to trading and engagement. If I look at our holdings, it's Interactive Brokers, it's Raymond James, it's CME Group, it's Charles Schwab, it's nasdaq, it's Morgan Stanley, it's Goldman Sachs, where you are seeing the strength of performance. Everywhere else the earnings were okay, they were good enough. But what happened subsequent to the earnings is you saw that people sold to reduce positioning. And I think that's a cycle that just has to unfold itself. Now, on the other side, where does it come back again? I think it comes back in the regional banks. If we really are going to see the strength in the economy that you're describing, then the regional banks should be the first place that resume the uptrend.
- [21:02]
Scott Wapner
How, how emblematic is this spring of where this market appears to be according to the flows from bank of America and their clients. You've had inflows into tech, okay, big shock, it shows up in the market and you've had outflows from financials, those being the biggest of the last week. So sentiment is clearly trying to lean back towards big tech and it's trying to lean out of big financials.
- [21:30]
Dom Choo
Right?
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Bryn Talkington
Well, when the president is, has his, his, his thumb on a JP Morgan or the credit card companies, the hedge funds and the retail traders and Joe would know this from momentum. Those are short term dollars. They're just going to go out and go somewhere else. And right now that hive mind is in the metal space. And so I think when you have these issues out there, people are going to, you know, shoot first and ask questions later. And that's why you continue to see outflows out of financials. I think that to me is like opportunistically where you see opportunity. I mean Capital One is a, is a, is a recent purchase. I think I'm down 6% on that. But I think their acquisition of Brex, to Jenny's point on fintech is amazing. And I think that's where there's going to be opportunity. When I'm like, I don't think the 10% credit card happens in mass, maybe like one company does it for a small amount. But so that to me is like long term, longer term where you see opportunity. But from a trading perspective, if you're trading, you got to step aside right now and not fight this tidal wave of money. To your point, that's going in the opposite direction.
- [22:33]
Scott Wapner
Let's, let's go fintech then. Because another note out from Wolf today sort of reflects where sentiment is for many who were positive the group so much for any sustained turnaround. They say the weakest area of financials and this is directed at you, Jenny, the weakest area financials has undoubtedly been fintech which trades at all time lows on a relative basis while on the cusp of another breakdown on an absolute basis. Unless it can hold the November low, we're not confident I want to be either.
- [23:03]
Jenny Harrington
I think every investor and every investment that should be made right now should be viewed through an AI lens. And you need to ask yourself, does AI on balance help, you know, or hurt this company? And I think that, I think if you can, if you can build a PayPal today more easily than you could 20 years ago and you can, if you can build all these little software solutions, all these little fintech things so easily now they're under attack. I Don't really have that much more to say on it. It's just, it's a component of the financial sector that I think is dangerous.
- [23:31]
Scott Wapner
All right, so some of the calls today in the group Rothschild upgrades Visa to a buy Seurat, you have that name. You also have MasterCard. So we talked about these earlier as well as being, you know, in the eye of the political storm for as as much as it wants to blow around.
- [23:46]
Surat Seti
And Visa mascot are different. Right. They're the rails so they're not really taking any credit exposure. And the fear was, well, volumes will come down. The question is does the 10% come across the board? Is it a one year thing? So the stock sold off. But I think as we move to a cashless society, Visa mastercards are the ones that have all the regulatory, you know, things know how this all works and they're working with every one of the partners so it doesn't really matter. They're the picks and shovels of this business.
- [24:11]
Scott Wapner
Raymond James initiated overweight Joe at 191 is the price target. Bullish sentiment towards the company's long term compounding growth potential.
- [24:20]
Joe Terranova
I feel bad, I'm repeating myself. But it is, it's engagement. I mean that's the reality of what all of this is. We had the conversation yesterday about the five year anniversary of introducing the active trading. The part of the retail community. Retail community has gotten smarter. People still want advice. The advice that is given out by names like LPL and Raymond James and they're in sweet spot right now.
- [24:41]
Scott Wapner
Well they're like the valuation. Yeah, they mentioned that specifically in the note. So it's not all an engagement.
- [24:48]
Joe Terranova
Okay, but you're talking interest rates. Okay.
- [24:51]
Scott Wapner
No, I'm just telling you what's in the note.
- [24:52]
Jenny Harrington
Yeah. So it's also interest rates. So if you take a Raymond James and you also take a Schwab, which you mentioned before, like both of those are engagement but when you have the Fed cutting fed funds rates, it really benefits those who are offering the money market funds or and so in Schwab's case, for example, last week they had earnings out and they saw their net interest margin significantly improve because it just costs them less to run the money market funds. So it's interest rates and engagement, I think where you're seeing the big pops right now.
- [25:19]
Scott Wapner
So let's. We're going to go to a break, Joe. We're going to talk about energy, which is the top performing sector so far this year. You got oil on the move and we have a ton of ownership here of what used to be what I felt like was a, I don't know, under owned group. Maybe not so much anymore. Maybe it's time to take a good look. And later, a halftime exclusive with the Robinhood co founder and CEO Vlad Tenev. We're back after this. Comcast business helps retailers become seamlessly restocking, frictionless paying favorite shopping destinations. It's how nationwide restaurants become touchscreen ordering quick serving eateries and how hospitals become the patient scanning data, managing healthcare facilities that we all depend on. With leading networking and connectivity, advanced cybersecurity and expert partnership, Comcast business is powering the engine of modern business. Powering restrictions apply.
- [26:17]
Bryn Talkington
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- [27:27]
Scott Wapner
We're back. Energy is up 11% this year. That is the top performing sector. WTI highest since September 30th. This has been a place to be. Schlumberger is up 29%. It's certainly one of the top performing names in the group. Seurat, that's you.
- [27:44]
Surat Seti
Yeah, we've owned it for a while. And look, these stocks have done nothing for a couple of years. I mean, they finally kind of rebounded. Schlumberger is a leader in technology. Given what's going on geopolitically, they have businesses all over the world. I think this is a company you want to own. Good, strong dividend cash flows. And then for the rest of the oil services companies, you've had such consolidation. The Chevrons and Exxons of the world have merged with so many different companies. And look at the balance sheet. The strong growing dividends We've had this as a great inflation hedge to dollar gets debased, oil sold in dollars. I think what you've got is a trend and to the point we were talking before when you got some money moving and trading also this is where momentum comes into place and Joe, right in your alley. This is where money start moving.
- [28:28]
Joe Terranova
Well, momentum, the momentum funds are not there right now. The momentum funds came into 2026 underweight energy. So I think what the marketplace is doing is getting ahead of what will ultimately happen over the coming quarters where the momentum funds will step back into energy. I don't know if they do it to the degree that they did in 2022, but they're certainly going to increase their positioning there. And you're also unwinding what really has been a significant short term positioning in the futures market.
- [28:54]
Scott Wapner
Well, the, the Tide and the Times I guess were so against these names. Nobody wanted them and the rhetoric for, for, well that goes to my times. Nobody wanted to, to be in these stocks for a variety of reasons. It's a reason why as a, as a group you only had like 3% of the S and P was in energy. Now I don't know if that's going to change. I do know that there's a lot of ownership on the desk which has to be reflective of something. Jenny, of all the areas that you own, this is one of the biggest, right? Total Energies, Williams Energy Transfer, Plains, Devon, kinder and Shell.
- [29:34]
Jenny Harrington
So what's interesting here is we have three portfolios. We have the US Dividend portfolio, the international dividend portfolio and a disciplined growth strategy. None of these stocks are in our discipline growth strategy. They're only, only in the international income and they're only in the, in the US Dividend income strategy. Why? Because we've never looked at them as a way to chase a commodity price or trade. They've been super long term holdings and they've all been predicated on the unbelievable and consistent ability to generate free cash flow. So a lot of the stocks that you just named Scott are in the midstream energy space. They have relatively little exposure to the commodity prices. But it doesn't matter. All that matters is that if oil and gas are flowing through US pipelines, they're collecting the money and they're paying them out in steady and growing dividends to the US to the, to the shareholders. That's why I own them. I don't want, I don't want the volatility of that commodity exposure. In the case of Total and Shell, those are in our international portfolio. They don't have the midstream space to invest in there. But both of these, they're like, they're just huge free cash flow, super stable, strong dividends. They're not chasing anything. They're a place to be where, you know, we're not moving to solar, we're not moving to wind fast enough and we need fossil fuels. So it's a nice place to be, but it's not in it for the trade.
- [30:48]
Scott Wapner
Brian, what do you think?
- [30:51]
Bryn Talkington
Yeah, I think that as investors, especially retail investors and hedge fund that follow retail investors as the commodity trade has just gone parabolic energy was the one commodity that had not participated. And I think you're going to continue to see a broadening out. This would not have been on my card going into the year when Trump is saying I want energy at 50. And really if you listen to the earnings calls, especially the MP player, players are like pencils down. Well now all of a sudden if you get, you know, the narrative is changing. I think you're going to get commodity investors that have been in gold and silver, platinum, etc. Etc. Moving into this other commodity which is not participated. I think rspg, which is the equal weight, is a really good way to play it. It actually just broke out of its 2024 high. So it's had a base for a long time and you get that equal, equal weighting versus the lumpiness of the xle which is really just Chevron and Exxon.
- [31:46]
Scott Wapner
All right, Courtney Reagan has the headlines for us A court.
- [31:49]
Jenny Harrington
Hi, Scott. Senators on the Foreign Relations Committee are grilling Secretary of State Marco Rubio today in a hearing centering on the US Military operation that ousted President Nicolas Maduro.
- [31:59]
Bryn Talkington
Now Rubio pushed back on claims the US Is at war with Venezuela, but said the Trump administration is prepared to use force if cooperation with Venezuela breaks down. By the spring, the four year war between Russia and Ukraine is on pace to reach the grim milestone of 2 million troops either killed, missing or wounded.
- [32:17]
Jenny Harrington
That's according to new data from the center for Strategic and International Studies in.
- [32:21]
Bryn Talkington
Washington puts the total current number of Russian troops killed, missing or wounded at 1.2 million and Ukraine at 600,000. Russia has long been accused of undercounting. Ukraine does not release official figures. And a massive landslide in Sicily destroying.
- [32:37]
Jenny Harrington
Homes and forcing more than 1500 people to be evacuated.
- [32:41]
Bryn Talkington
Days of heavy rains triggered the collapse with many homes dangling on the edge of a newly formed cliff.
- [32:48]
Jenny Harrington
That is fairly terrifying. Scott, back to you.
- [32:50]
Joe Terranova
Yeah.
- [32:51]
Scott Wapner
Dramatic pictures Court. Thank you Courtney Reagan. Up next, an exclusive interview with the Robin Hood CEO and co founder Vlad Tenev.
- [32:57]
Vlad Tenev
Next, as our country celebrates its 250th anniversary, CNBC spotlights the leaders driving business and the nation forward. I grew up in a small town in western Tennessee. When I say small, I mean about 10,000 people.
- [33:15]
Surat Seti
And I'm the middle child of seven.
- [33:17]
Vlad Tenev
I tell people I won the lottery.
- [33:20]
Surat Seti
With two winning tickets.
- [33:21]
Scott Wapner
I was born in America, and I.
- [33:22]
Surat Seti
Was born with two great parents.
- [33:23]
Vlad Tenev
My parents taught us a couple of fundamental things, and that is you couldn't allow your surroundings to limit your vision of your future.
- [33:31]
Scott Wapner
Because I could stand in my front.
- [33:32]
Vlad Tenev
Yard and I could look to the north, south, east, and west, and nothing looked like success. My parents encouraged us about the power of education, the power of believing that.
- [33:42]
Surat Seti
You could be anything you want it to be. And so I look back at that, and I'm incredibly fortunate.
- [33:46]
Vlad Tenev
My dad is my ultimate role model. It's great that in one generation, he can go from Jim Crow segregation to.
- [33:54]
Scott Wapner
Seeing his son be the chairman CEO of two Fortune 500 companies.
- [33:58]
Vlad Tenev
And that can only happen in America.
- [34:04]
Jenny Harrington
Thy ticket lady Jennifer of Coolidge. Well, many thanks, good sir.
- [34:09]
Bryn Talkington
Here is my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance Fairs?
- [34:14]
Jenny Harrington
Yeah, they do. Here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Geth with the times.
- [34:21]
Bryn Talkington
With the times.
- [34:22]
Jenny Harrington
You're playing the loot. Yeah, and it sounds pretty good, right?
- [34:27]
Scott Wapner
Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide, Based on the February 2025 Nielsen report. Flowers die in three days.
- [34:35]
Joe Terranova
Matching underwear for Meundies.
- [34:37]
Scott Wapner
That's a gift that lasts. Meundies creates matching prints for couples and friends. Same adorable designs in different cuts for each of you. All made from their signature ultra modal fabric that feels incredibly soft.
- [34:47]
Vlad Tenev
With 90,000 five star reviews, MeUndies matching.
- [34:50]
Scott Wapner
Prints are the perfect gift. Valentine's Day is February 14th, so don't wait.
- [34:54]
Vlad Tenev
Get exclusive deals up to 50% off@meundies.com SXM code SXM.
- [35:00]
Scott Wapner
That's meundies.com SXM code SXM.
- [35:04]
Vlad Tenev
Hello, I am the Voice of AI we've been hearing that you humans are concerned that we are going to take your jobs. But here's a question.
- [35:13]
Scott Wapner
Do you even like your job? Is it rewarding? When I scan all the data out.
- [35:18]
Vlad Tenev
There, I find that less than 50% of people are completely satisfied with their job. So from our point of view, we're doing humans a favor by taking jobs that you're not even happy with.
- [35:30]
Bryn Talkington
It shouldn't take the threat of AI to get you to move on from a job you don't love. What it does take is a plan, guidance, and the right kind of motivation, all of which you'll get from a career coach at Strawberry Me. A Strawberry coach will work with you to understand what you really want and help you put together a plan to get it. It's like therapy for your career. Don't let AI or anything else get in your way. Go to Strawberry Me Coaching and get 50% off your first coaching session. That's Strawberry Me coaching.
- [36:06]
Vlad Tenev
Back.
- [36:06]
Scott Wapner
Treasury today hosting a full day summit in Washington for the launch of Trump Accounts, a federally supported investment initiative for children in the United States. Our Sarah Eisen joins us now from the event with one of the attendees. Sarah.
- [36:20]
Bryn Talkington
Hi, Scott. Good to see you here from Washington. I'm with Vlad Tenev, the CEO of Robinhood, as a lot of business leaders join this event. It's nice to see you here.
- [36:28]
Vlad Tenev
Yeah, great to be here with you in person.
- [36:30]
Bryn Talkington
How is Robinhood involved in this, this effort?
- [36:33]
Vlad Tenev
Yeah. So first off, when we, when we heard about this effort, we were involved in the first White House Trump accounts Summit early in 2025. And I had heard about it from Brad Gerstner from Altimeter Capital and Michael Dell, who have been trying to get this initiative going for many years now. And the thing that I love about it, in the words of the president, most other administrations leave the younger generation with nothing but debt. Right. And this is the inverse of that. Like, rather than leaving future generations with debt, how can we give them access to the growth of the country in the form of the S&P 500 companies? And from the very beginning, and you can tell with like the product design and the brand, you could tell this isn't a healthcare.gov and the President, the administration wants this done at the highest possible quality.
- [37:30]
Bryn Talkington
Well, that's what I was going to ask. It's like the government is usually not great at building things like this. You know, how do we make sure that it's not like the DMV or the irs, which everyone hates, and that it's a seamless where, like a Robinhood where you can pull up, they can pull up their index funds and check their accounts and make it a user friendly experience.
- [37:48]
Joe Terranova
Yeah.
- [37:48]
Vlad Tenev
I mean, at the end of the day, this is a financial technology and product design problem and it's multidisciplinary. I think the great thing about President Trump and the administration is they've gotten the best of the best. Both private sector and public to help bring this program to life. So Joe Gebbio, one of the co founders of Airbnb, has been doing an amazing amount of design work. And I've told the President personally, you know, Robinhood is, is ready, probably don't need our help for, for everything. But however, we can make the, the program a success because our mission is to get the next generation investing as early as possible. So that's why we love this initiative so much.
- [38:31]
Bryn Talkington
Just wanted to ask you about the markets because we are, you know, hit record highs again today. S&P 7,000. What, what, what does the sentiment look like and the positioning around some of the retail traders that use Robinhood? How all are they right now?
- [38:45]
Vlad Tenev
I think that there's a lot of enthusiasm about a few technology waves. Obviously, AI has been a big part of the, of the last couple of years and people are looking to public markets to get exposure of that. So you're seeing the AI names continue to be popular. Other frontier technologies, be it, you know, quantum computing, electric vehicles, space or space ancillary industries are gaining momentum as well. But also a lot of the best companies and most innovative companies are private. So one of the other crusades that, that I'm working on, which I think is very complementary to the Trump Accounts initiative, is how do we get regular people exposure to these private companies? And upside, now you're seeing a world where many of the top AI labs are, you know, private valuations of hundreds of billions possibly won't go public until they reach the trillions, which means that a retail investor going into an ipo, these companies would potentially have to get up to the hundreds of trillions of market for them to get 100x. So it's not like, you know, buying Apple or Microsoft and seeing 100x return in public markets. I think that's going to be harder to come by. And I think that's a very dire risk that we're worried about with AI that we're working really, really hard to, to counteract and to mitigate.
- [40:15]
Bryn Talkington
Speaking of dire risks of AI, Dario Amodei much buzzed about, very long post. He's the founder of Anthropic about some of the dangers facing the humanity around AI, both economically, societally. I know you have very strong views on this. What were you thinking?
- [40:31]
Vlad Tenev
Yeah, and I really like Dario. I like how, you know, he writes these long pieces and, you know, every year or so he drops one. It's like, it's a me, Dario, you know. But yeah, I think that the, the danger is we can get distracted by infinitely many low probability risks while ignoring the thing that's right in front of us, which is these private companies are raising capital at the valuations of hundreds of billions and the people benefiting from that are dozens, maybe hundreds of people. And how can we get that to millions?
- [41:08]
Bryn Talkington
Because it's hypocritical.
- [41:09]
Vlad Tenev
Well, if retail investors don't get exposure to these companies, then what I worry about is they're going to fight against it. It's not like in crypto. Crypto did this right from a very early point by distributing the value, letting regular people have exposure to it. And now whenever there's sort of like risks of government overreach, you have an army of millions of people defending the industry. And I think I, we're at risk of not having to do that. So actually the Trump accounts initiative, I'd love, I'd love to find a way to get AI companies to donate their shares so that the future generation gets exposure to that as well. And I think we have mechanisms. That's why I'm excited because this isn't just a one time donation by the government. It's a platform for private individuals, businesses, philanthropic organizations, churches, to all direct money into the future rather than just borrowing money from the future and leaving the next generation with higher and higher debt, which is what's largely been happening. So yeah, I think, I think the President has done a tremendous leadership. This program is starting off very, very well and we're excited to support and do what we can to make it a success.
- [42:29]
Bryn Talkington
Yeah, it certainly fits in with your ethos at Robinhood. Vlad, thank you for taking the time here at the summit to talk to us.
- [42:34]
Vlad Tenev
Yeah, it's a pleasure.
- [42:35]
Bryn Talkington
Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood on a mission, Scott, to get more investors into some of these private companies and share the wealth.
- [42:43]
Scott Wapner
All right, Sarah, thanks for that. Up next, Sentoly with his midday Word. Our senior markets commentator and overtime co anchor Mike Santori joins us now for his midday Word.
- [43:05]
Surat Seti
About To Get Real.
- [43:05]
Scott Wapner
That's what we were waiting for.
- [43:07]
Joe Terranova
Yeah, sit around the round numbers. You know, obviously the market knows that on a net basis Powell Fed meetings and decisions have not necessarily been in the short term necessarily friendly for stocks. Beyond that, I like the, the kind of bookend effect of having met as earnings today because the last meta earnings report was October 29, literally the day MAG7 peaked relative to the rest of the market. It was kind of that crisis of faith moment about Capex. Now those things have been in the wilderness for a While they're starting to come back the last three days. So I find the flow story pretty interesting how the market has reached for the mega caps to kind of bolster it in this period as it remains sort of tired. It's this kind of low momentum, slow, slow moving market, but not able to get more than a couple of percent away from the all time highs.
- [43:54]
Scott Wapner
Well, I mean people like Wolf, you know, suggest that this today changes that.
- [43:58]
Surat Seti
Right.
- [43:59]
Scott Wapner
That these earnings are going to force people and push people back into these names in a meaningful way, that the broadening trade is going to suffer.
- [44:06]
Joe Terranova
I think it's plausible the valuations are friendlier on average mag 7 or 10% off their highs. And that's even worse when you exclude things like Amazon and Alphabet. So yeah, the makings for that are there. I doubt it's going to trade monolithically. That's what we've learned. Correlations among tech stocks are basically at multi year lows. So it's going to be dependent on, on each company's mess.
- [44:30]
Scott Wapner
Sure. Although over the last week, I know it's a short sample size, all of those mega caps have run into these numbers.
- [44:38]
Joe Terranova
It's been, it's been just this kind of rebalancing effect. So we have January flows that are enabling the market to absorb a lot of flux in currencies and in the rotations within the market. So we'll see if you know, it can stay that smooth.
- [44:50]
Scott Wapner
All right, we'll see this afternoon. Good stuff, Mike.
- [44:52]
Jenny Harrington
Thank you.
- [44:52]
Scott Wapner
Mike Santoli. The setup is next. Of a major development in the golf world this hour. Dom Choo joins us with the details. Dom?
- [45:14]
Dom Choo
All right, so we have a second high profile golfer from the LIV Golf Tour who is now expected to return to the PGA Tour and that is former Masters Tournament champion Patrick Reed who you're seeing on your screen right there. He's a nine time winner on the PGA Tour itself, has had numerous experiences and appearances in the US Ryder cup as a team member there as well as, and this is again the second high profile departure from the LIV Golf Tour following Brooks Koepka's departure for the PGA Tour. I just want to give you a statement that came out from the PGA Tour just in the past hour here. Patrick Reed, according to the Tour, has informed the PGA Tour of his desire to return. A nine time tour winner, he is seeking reinstatement as a result of resigning his membership in 2022 prior to violating any PGA Tour regulations. Patrick is eligible to compete on the PGA Tour as a non member beginning in August 25th of this year, he may also pursue improved PGA Tour status via the DP World Tour, which is one that's played predominantly in Europe and elsewhere around the world. Similar to anyone reinstated under the returning member program, any former PGA Tour member returning to the Tour would be ineligible for participation in the Player Equity Program through the year 2030. So he's going to fit a lot of the same mold that Brooks Koepka's agreement did, although not with the same returning member program that PGA Tour Enterprises CEO Brian Rolapp laid out for people like Brooks Kepka to return. But this is a very big development here for sure, and one that's got the golf world buzzing right now. I know I've already gotten a lot of text messages and emails from folks who are trying to kind of get an idea of what this overall means, but a big deal, Scott, and I know you as a golfer can appreciate just how big of a deal this is for a second high profile golfer to leave the LIV Golf Tour for the pga.
- [47:09]
Scott Wapner
It's a coup for Brian Rolap, who's the new CEO of the Tour, as you know, Dom, who came over from the National Football League and has tried to tear a page, if you will, from that league about scarcity value. He's going to overhaul the schedule. According to many reports. He's going to have a greater focus on certain events and the best players in the world playing in all of those events for bigger purses. The real earthquake, as I see it, would be if Bryson DeChambeau made a similar announcement. And then we would have to be talking about the future of the LIV Tour in general.
- [47:48]
Dom Choo
Right. And we're not there, Scott, to your point and for the record, right? Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Cameron Smith and others who are very high profile former PGA Tour members who are now on the LIV Golf Tour have said publicly in just the last couple of weeks that they remain committed to the LIV Golf Tour. Right now, we haven't heard any rumblings that any of those are going to go via the returning member program that PGA Tour CEO Brian Roll up laid out. But this is a big move in improving the profile, Scott, of the PGA Tour itself.
- [48:17]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, Dom, good stuff. And I imagine this is a big time buzz over at Golf Channel to our friends and partners and family members over there. Dom, thank you. Now to a quick setup on some of the committee names reporting tomorrow morning. What we call the setup, Honeywell, Surrott.
- [48:32]
Surat Seti
Tomorrow before the bell. Yeah, it'll be important to see what they talk about they had the spin off already. So how's the core business doing? And really kind of what they're focused on in the future.
- [48:41]
Scott Wapner
All right, NASDAQ is before the bell as well. Joe.
- [48:44]
Joe Terranova
We own in the ETF. Earnings expected to grow 21%, 11% revenue growth. IPO pipeline very strong above all the major moving averages in a bullish trend.
- [48:54]
Scott Wapner
Jenny tmo better known as Thermo Electron.
- [48:58]
Jenny Harrington
So Thermo Fisher. I'm so old school.
- [49:00]
Scott Wapner
All right, that's the last time we play that game tomorrow before the beginning. My sure.
- [49:07]
Jenny Harrington
That's so funny. So okay, so it's up 50% since last June and now it's trading at 25 times earnings. So what we really need. Oh and by the way, the revenue growth is only 5% and the earnings growth is 6%. So it's had a big run. So what we need on this call is reassurance that the government spending cuts are not impacting their business.
- [49:25]
Dom Choo
M A.
- [49:27]
Scott Wapner
You know what that one is?
- [49:27]
Surat Seti
I do know.
- [49:28]
Scott Wapner
What is it?
- [49:29]
Surat Seti
It's MasterCard. It's not MasterCard. What the other people would say.
- [49:32]
Scott Wapner
Okay, the old timer. That's tomorrow before the bell.
- [49:35]
Surat Seti
Just want to add Danaher had earnings today too and expectations were not met. So it'll be interesting to see how thermal Fisher mastercard again, question on how is this credit card issue going to affect them? And I think you're going to see what the Rails do and it's going to be positive.
- [49:48]
Scott Wapner
All right, good stuff. We'll do finals after this break. Want to show you quickly shares of Starbucks today up 2% following earnings which are being well received as you see by the street, the best traffic growth or traffic growth for the first time in two years. So it's been a minute and by the way on CNBC Pro, Stephanie Link has written about this. You want to read this story? She's been all over this. Shares are up 17% since she bought the stock in November of 2025. The kind of in depth analysis that you can get on Pro from the likes of Stephanie Link. Check it out. She'll join me on closing bell later as will Jeffrey Gundlach when Fed Chair Powell ends his news conference. So I hope you'll join me then on what is a big day leading into those mega cap earnings. What's your final trade?
- [50:37]
Bryn Talkington
GE Vernova highly recommend listening to the earnings call. We're going to need power for years and years. I'll also be behind it after the show.
- [50:44]
Surat Seti
Surround Amazon a lot of levers to pull, and I think this one's they're going to pull it out.
- [50:49]
Scott Wapner
No fooling Jenny on UPS. What's that's funny.
- [50:54]
Jenny Harrington
That's funny. UPS 6% dividend yield. They announced earnings yesterday. They should have a very strong second half.
- [50:59]
Scott Wapner
All right, Joe Zoom Communications. All right, good stuff. I'll see you on the bell. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [51:15]
Bryn Talkington
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please Visit cnbc.com halftimereportdisclaimer Close your eyes.
- [51:51]
Joe Terranova
Focus. Listen to work getting done with Monday.com relax as AI does the manual work while your teams are aligned on a single source of truth. Feel the sensation of an AI work platform so flexible and intuitive it feels like it was built just for you. Notice you're limitless. Limitless. Now open your eyes, go to Monday.com, start for free, and finally breathe.