Scott Wapner (3:55)

So I'm glad you bring that up. Let me just interject for a moment because I'm really happy you brought that up. So there's a stat out there today that. Well, what Josh says is you're getting close to the point where similar streaks have come to an end, which is I think part of the point that Josh is making about the vulnerability of the market. The highest since 2017, remember? So we've done 101 trading sessions where the Qs have closed above the 50 day moving average. Okay. Since 2017, the highest has been 107. Today would be 102. We're down though, so maybe we don't get it, but the Highest would be 107 and that was since 2017, the point where similar streaks have ended in the past.

Josh Brown (4:40)

So here's the thing about bull markets. I'm an internals person. I know a lot of people say disregard it, ignore it, but I've never been able to. AI related stocks have accounted for 75% of the S&P 500 returns. So not just NASDAQ but the overall market. 80% of the earnings growth for the S and P and 90% of cap spending growth since Chachi Beat was launched. That's according to my friend Michael Samblis.

Scott Wapner (5:07)

At JP Morgan does amazing research on a whole number of big picture topics.

Josh Brown (5:11)

So you've got a ton of concentration not just in in AI in the Nasdaq, but in the S and P. And when you look at the internals, 59% of stocks in the S and P are above the 200 day, which means like obviously 40% or not. So while it's a broader rally than some might give it credit for, it's not all that broad. And the reality is when you have a streak like this, people get super comfortable. People start doing wild things like gapping up a name like Oracle, 30 or 40% a day. And when you see that level of enthusiasm, where that comes from is people forget about the other side. They forget that risk exists. So I think we're vulnerable. To answer your question, those are the reasons why I don't think that's the death knell of the bull market. But my God, if there were ever a time to say maybe I don't need to add my next stock without taking something else off or lightening up exposure, this is that time.

Scott Wapner (6:09)

Maybe that's the perfect segue then to lean into a little bit of what Citadel's Ken Griffin was just saying a little while ago on CNBC and specifically around the hype and the spending around AI. Those are my words. His words are quote, there are certainly echoes of the dot com bubble in this moment. As Joe, he, you know, he looks out there and he sees what's been going on. And the flurry of announcements in the past few days, all these billions and billions and billions of dollars being laid out for capital expenditures by various companies. The way that investors have chased these stocks up to the moon. Yes, there's been some fitness fits and starts here and there, but what do you make of what Ken Griffin said there? Echoes of the dot com bubble in this moment. If you take what Josh said from Symbolist, 75% of S&P 500 returns have been from AI related stocks. 80% of the earnings growth and 90% of cap spending growth since Chat GPT launched in November of 2022. In other words, it's been the whole game in town for the most part.

Joe Terranova (7:21)

It has been the Whole game in town. It's been that way since 2023. If you think about coming out of a very punishing period in 2022 when the federal Reserve was raising historically an aggressive hiking cycle, where would we be without the innovation powering forward a lot of the earnings growth that we saw from these technology names? So you have to take the good element of that and then understand that markets are very consistent in taking things to extremes. I like Josh's point on Oracle because Oracle is announcing a $15 billion debt offering. So that's where you get the echo Scott of 1999, when you begin to say, okay, this is not cash from operations, this is now we are going to go access the debt markets, we're going to raise capital and we're going to use that to spend on the infrastructure. And that's exactly what Oracle is doing. It's one of the reasons why Oracle is on the retreat over the last several days because they announced that there are $91 billion worth of debt. That's second highest to Apple. But don't make the comparison to Apple because we're talking about two completely different companies.

Scott Wapner (8:25)

On that note, Rothschild and company Redburn. Today they initiate Oracle with a sell rating. They say the target's 175. I'll read you a bit of their note again. Let's, so let's, let's show the stock first again, please. Let's do that. Because again, their targets 175. The stocks at 300 more or less quote. The market materially overestimates the value of Oracle's contracted cloud revenues. Our analysis suggests Oracle's five year Oracle Cloud Infrastructure Revenue Guide equates to roughly $60 billion in value, meaning the market is already pricing in a risky blue sky scenario that is unlikely likely to materialize. It's even more relevant and pertinent for us today in the context of our conversation because Bill Baruch, you own the stock, but you're trimming it. Yes. Are you in agreement with this kind of call from Rothschild today and some of the things that Joe just talked about?

Bill Baruch (9:23)

Well, if I was agreement with that call, I would have cut the stock entirely. We trimmed it and I think it's a balance. I mean the taxable gains that we have in the name right now. But that trim, along with some others we'll get to later on is looking at just raising some cash here and being able to manage a position that's going to be higher, more higher volatility. It's run up significantly. It's at a 41 multiple historical average is 19. It's growing into new muscles here. It's been a repricing. So I think as, as it has been repriced growing to those new muscles, it's going to get more volatility at this level. And I think, I think it is a little bit of, you know, it's a lot to chew down here with the numbers that they put out there. So I think trimming it here just brings it back in balance and allows us to watch a few rounds. And I think to Josh and Joe's point, AI in the growth that's associated with AI has been punching above its weight class for a little bit now. In the GDP data today was revised higher. It's all non residential spending that are having that impact. So I think yeah, it's that I build out that's driving it, the energy buildup that's driving it. So you know, again, this is not saying punching above its weight class and it's not going to be a heavyweight, but you're going to take a jab from time to time and this could be a nice little time to see the market pull back a little bit.

Scott Wapner (10:40)

I mean, one of the trip it seemed like, you know, a couple of weeks ago Oracle was doing just fine in the middleweight class, maybe a super welterweight or whatever. And then it automatically just stepped up to the heavyweight class within a matter of hours with the earnings report that just blew everybody away. I mean, analysts literally left stunned when the report was released. The stock shot up to degrees that you just don't. It went parallel often, often see, but keep the shot up. It's 31 and a half percent.

Josh Brown (11:07)

But look at the run up, look at the run up from the April lows into that earnings report. It's not like it was entirely a mystery that Oracle was doing really well. I think the stock added 100 points and then reported that quarter and added another hundred points in a couple of days or maybe a week. And that's the action that I'm talking about. It has nothing to do with the fundamentals of Oracle. This happens with great stocks or bad stocks. Sometimes a stock just goes parabolic and you just have to say to yourself, does this really make sense?

Jim Lebenthal (11:37)

Well, that's what maybe sometimes it goes down.

Scott Wapner (11:39)

That's what maybe, you know, not trying to assess, assess what Mr. Griffin's looking at when he makes the comment that he did a little while ago. But you'd forgive him certainly if that was one of those that jumped out and he's like they added $100 billion in market cap in like 10 minutes. When he says there are certainly echoes of the dot com bubble at this moment, you have the stock too. Not to pick on this particular name, but it is notable that it's up 31 and a half percent this month. When we're hearing some commentary like Griffin's about the overall environment and you have people like Bill trimming the stock.

Jim Lebenthal (12:16)

Yeah, and you know, I think also not just about the returns, but Bill, you mentioned the 41 times forward multiple. Remember Oracle's on a May year end. So if you look at May of 20, 27 kind of the year ahead, it comes down to 36. You look at May of 28 and it comes down to about a 26 multiple. So either the stock is correctly priced and the earnings are going to come in from OpenAI and others and we're really looking at a stock that two years from now is going to be trading in the mid-20s multiple, or that money from OpenAI isn't going to come in. Frankly, I think the Nvidia deal that was announced a few days ago puts a lot of wind in the sails as far as where is OpenAI going to get that money from. But I don't think. Here's. Let me cut to the chase. We will eventually be in a bubble in AI. We are not there yet. We just are not. If you want to know what a bubble looks like, look at the multiple of Cisco. In 1998. It was around 30 times. Shot up over the next two years to 120 times. That's not what's been happening for the most.

Scott Wapner (13:15)

All bubbles are not created equal. That if you're looking for some historical precedent based on old numbers versus new, maybe that's not the right way to look at this story.

Jim Lebenthal (13:25)

What. Can I dance with that? I mean, I actually, I want to disagree with it, but if there's a, if there's a difference this time, it's that the earnings are really coming through. We are most likely in the middle the of earnings of the earnings growth. When a bubble happens, it's when the earnings growth isn't there to support these lofty valuations.

Scott Wapner (13:41)

That's why I'm suggesting to you that it's a, it's, it's a fallacy to look back at 1999, 2000 and try and make comparisons to some of the mega cap names today.

Jim Lebenthal (13:52)

Scott? Yes. I mean, I'm sorry I missed your point, but I'll make it my point at least a little Bit clearer. I don't agree with Mr. Griffin. I don't think we're hearing the echoes of.

Josh Brown (14:01)

I don't think, I don't think, though that he specifically talking about Oracle. I think what Ken Griffin is referencing, we're starting to see the same stuff we saw in 2021. And I saw, I saw a commentator earlier this week on cnbc. I forget who it was. Say something to the effect of like, well, we don't have this like IPO boom, therefore it's not 1999. I would argue we, we do have it, but it's taking the form of companies that went public three years ago, pre revenue SPAC. Those, those are like the new IPOs this year. You look at how some of these stocks are trading, the nuclear stuff. Josh, what if it's 1990 quantum computing names? It's a fair point. I'm just saying if you're looking for signs that it's an egregious bubble, I don't think you're going to find them in Nvidia and Oracle per se. I think you're going to find them in companies that we've given 30, 40 bucks, $50 billion market caps too, that have no earnings and in some cases have no revenue. That's like where I think where Griffin is looking. And he's like, wait, how much volume did that stock do? I never even heard of this company. So you have the Iowa Qs, the rigidis, the oclos. Like these are. I'm not saying they're bad companies. I'm saying the activity in those stocks is more reminiscent of the dot com bubble. And, you know, you don't have to worry.

Scott Wapner (15:22)

Well, that's why Jonathan Kristi, that's why Jonathan Krinski's out in the last 24 hours or so saying that those types of high volatility names are poised for downside reversion. And he talks about some of the quantum computing names that have gone absolutely crazy in, you know, from time to time through this.

Joe Terranova (15:41)

That's been known in the market for the last several weeks. I think that's been obvious to everyone in the market. I think you have to look at the actual indicators to suggest that it's beginning to occur. I think it's a combination of everything. I think it's a combination of 97, 99, 20, 21. Markets go to extremes. In the case of Oracle, you're talking about a stock that rallied aggressively from April. But yeah, what happened on September 10? The stock went parabolic. And when stocks go parabolic There is never usually a good outcome to that general. That is a top.

Scott Wapner (16:12)

So Palantir then. Bill, let's discuss this one. Okay. It's on track for its seventh straight quarter of double digit gains. Gains, not just gains, double digit gains. Only Amazon matched that kind of streak. And you got to go back to 1999 to discuss that. You want to address it?

Bill Baruch (16:32)

I talked about the multiple of Oracle. I'll talk about the multiple here real quick. I think it's 230 for multiple. We're not in this name because of the multiple, of course. This was an ad I purchased basically on the show in May or April. 80 bucks or so and we've stuck it out. And it's one that you want to size properly in your portfolio. There's going to be those 5 to 10 or more percent days and for us it's, it's a 1.75% holding and it's a long term holding for us. I think they'll grow into the earnings. I think different contracts that you're starting to see develop. They, they are on, they are the fast track. If you want to fast track AI for as a country, as, as an institution, as a company, you're, you're hiring Palantir to come in there and clean it up and connect it and their contracts are going to expand. So we like the name. We're going to be very patient with it.

Scott Wapner (17:21)

It's a retail popular name, obviously. By the way, there was an interesting note today from JP Morgan's retail radar that I thought we would bring up trying to get inside. I think the psyche of the retail investor activity in single stocks was very subdued. This week marked the first time this year that we observed from four consecutive days with net retail trading in singles single names below $100 million in absolute value. That's pretty interesting. Mag7 retail activity, they say, has been largely muted since July. How do you want to talk about that? Like, I mean, retail seems to be why.

Josh Brown (18:02)

So I said 2021 is the maybe where we are. I said 2021 is the more apt comparison because the MAG7 stocks are just like, they're not juicy enough for this generation of traders and what they're up to right now. People are out there looking.

Scott Wapner (18:16)

They want the opens.

Josh Brown (18:17)

Yeah, people are out there looking for 10 baggers, 20 baggers. They're looking for stocks that can give them a thousand x return. That's the stage of the rally that we're in. You don't get that until the NASDAQ 100 has already been up for 100 consecutive days above its 50 day.

Scott Wapner (18:33)

There are a lot of cold stocks in the market, open door, for example. Like we're talking about a lot, a lot of these things.

Josh Brown (18:38)

And it does not mean that they're all like spontaneously going to combust. I'm not making a judgment about the individual companies being caught up in this. I'm describing the enthusiasm of the Robinhood trader who by the way, is only a segment of the quote, unquote retail investor. Because when you look at a I, those investors who are not on Robinhood, those are Charles Schwab investors, they act in this way and they're not talking this way. And it's like, so when we say the retail investor, well, which one? The one that's over 60 or the one that's under 30? Because I promise you, they're not doing the same thing right now. And it's really important to bear in mind it's. There's not one retail investor, just like there's not one professional investor.

Bill Baruch (19:20)

Well, the retail investor is very smart.

Scott Wapner (19:23)

This day and age.

Bill Baruch (19:24)

And the one thing that to kind of connect the dots is last year the Fed cut rates and yields went higher. This year was a labor force cut. Yields were expected to go lower. You're seeing a hurt mentality within the, within these retail traders to start saying, okay, rates are going to go lower. What stocks are going to capitalize? We've already seen a big run the mag sevens over the last, you know, over the last couple of months. What stocks will capitalize on these, on rates coming down.

Scott Wapner (19:48)

Maybe, maybe investors are trying to wisen themselves up to the idea that rates are not going to go down, like maybe they thought they would.

Bill Baruch (19:56)

Yeah.

Scott Wapner (19:57)

And I mentioned what rates have done from the Fed pre cut to where they are now. Similar trend to what happened last September 1 year ago when the Fed first cut in this cycle and rates actually went up. I do that on purpose to get me back to Ken Griffin because he did comment on what he thinks the Fed will do. He says, I think they'll cut one more time this year. They've cut next year, but one more time this year. He called 25 basis points a quote, symbolic move won't have a meaningful impact. He was asked about Fed independence, which he has spoken out on in the past, and he reiterated his belief, quote, if I were the president, I'd let the Fed do their job and have as much independence as possible as possible. And he also tied in part, part weakness in the dollar, which has surprised many to overall policy volatility and in part the battle over over Fed independence. He weighed in on tariffs. Maybe tariffs haven't caused the kind of inflation that some had suggested they would to this point. Undeterred seems his view. It's coming is what Ken Griffin Joe had to say. What do you think?

Joe Terranova (21:06)

I agree with him on the Federal Reserve. Keep in mind we had a very big spike in the US dollar and 20, 2022 when we went through the monetary tightening cycle. We have now returned to where we were in 2022 for the dollar. I still think the pressure on the dollar for further downside is there. I think that's obviously going to benefit gold. But I think the most important we.

Scott Wapner (21:26)

Call that a tailwind for driving profitability for companies too. So I mean it cuts both ways. It's representative of something. But the effect of the cause is positive for profitability.

Joe Terranova (21:38)

Profitability for multinational corporate durations, without a doubt profitable for if you're thinking about asset allocation going outside the US for the very first time in many, many years, but turning back and thinking about Fed policy and maybe trying to understand why the retail investor over the last several days is sitting on the sidelines, you're going to lose that broadening out opportunity in particular for small caps. We talked the other day with excitement about the X SBI and biotech and.

Josh Brown (22:04)

The rally broadening out.

Joe Terranova (22:06)

But if you continue to get strong economic numbers and if you have skepticism, if in fact the Federal Reserve is going to give you more than maybe just another rate cut, then that small cap broadening out opportunity is going to really be in trouble.

Scott Wapner (22:20)

We got a few minutes left in the A block. Let's kick some moves around because Bill Bill not on all that much. So we don't get like daily updates to bring our viewers on what you've done in your portfolio. But you have some significant moves I want to do. So you trimmed Micron, you trimmed Tesla and you trimmed Cameco, you sold Freeport Macaron, which was the focus of a pretty good bull bear debate of late. Can you take me through like the most important out of that?

Bill Baruch (22:47)

Yeah, we trim Micron ahead of the earnings report. It's a name that I've talked about in the show quite a bit. High bandwidth memory. They are really chewing into a larger chunk of that of that market and they're going to continue to be a great company. We just felt that a lot of the good news was was priced in for that earnings report ahead of it. And last June very similar sort of it fell off More sharply then, but trimming that with, with ahead of that sort of the. You had Broadcom, you had Oracle, you know, and Micron capitalized on the back of that. So it was a good little trim for us. It got up to a 3% position. We shaved off 40 basis points or so. Same thing with Tesla. Tesla, very technical, rounded out very nice from May until about a month ago and it ripped higher. We haven't set a new record high yet. Trimmed about 20 to 40 basis points off Tesla. Another name, Kimiko. That's almost up 100% year to date. It's up 140% I think it is from the low. Uranium is continuing to get more action, more, more political speak and it is going to have some geopolitical impact on volatility.

Josh Brown (23:51)

Part of the trade.

Bill Baruch (23:53)

Yeah.

Josh Brown (23:54)

The VanEck Nuclear ETF NLR is now $3 billion. It's a very small niche area within energy.

Scott Wapner (24:01)

Yeah.

Josh Brown (24:02)

These mining stocks, including ccj, they're directly taking flows from people that want to bet on the next leg of the trade.

Bill Baruch (24:09)

It's been, it's been a great move for us. So you look at those four names. We did those all Tuesday morning. We raised about one to one and a quarter percent cash and got our book to about 10% at that point, about 8% cash. And then we cut Freeport yesterday on the open on that news that that is, that is the crown jewel, that mine that they, that they had the issue with, that we, we really don't know how long that's going to be out of capacity. And it's really is, is put shockwaves through the copper and metals industry history and you see others like Southern Copper capitalized on it. But I think with that crown jewel, one of the largest mines in the world being out of capacity for an unknown amount of time, we jumped out of Freeport and then cutting that about a 2% position got us to about 10% cash. I think this is from a portfolio management standpoint. We feel very comfortable sitting here with 10% cash and looking for the opportunity to go shopping in the coming month or two.

Scott Wapner (25:02)

Jimmy bought more Delta.

Jim Lebenthal (25:04)

Yeah, you may remember Scott, I raised some cash a few weeks ago. I was thinking maybe the market might pull back. It didn't. But what I said at the time was I will find spots if the market doesn't pull back to reinvigorate my portfolio. Delta has not performed as well as the market has climbed here. Still we see passenger counts are very high. We see low fuel prices. Estimates are going up. They're nowhere near where they were before Liberation Day, but they will eventually get there. Trades at 9 times earnings. This is an obvious play on a growing economy to me.

Scott Wapner (25:33)

All right, we have more committee moves coming up. Josh Brown has a new buy to tell you about. Joe just threw in the towel on a couple of names. He will document that we got a lot ahead. We'll be back right after this.

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Scott Wapner (27:35)

Okay, let's talk about a new buy first from Josh Brown. PSX. Yeah. Phillips 66.

Josh Brown (27:41)

Yes.

Scott Wapner (27:42)

Tell me more.

Josh Brown (27:43)

So you were like on some sort of extended vacation earlier this week, Frank Holland. Frank Holland and I had a had a conversation about energy stocks because nobody cares about energy, but there's a little bit of a stealth rally happening in a handful of names in the the XLE patch. Psx. I gave it a letter grade. I said it's still a C. Stock's been shaping up over the last couple of days. It's not an A, but I'm buying it anyway. I'm anticipating a breakout. Marathon has already broken out. We talked about it Tuesday. Valero has already broken out. We talked about that one too. Phillips 66 is one of the three largest of that refinery group has not broken out yet. But I think that could be coming. Number one, there's a million reasons why an insider might sell stock in their own company, pay for a daughter's wedding, real estate transaction, diversify the portfolio, whatever. There's really only one reason why they buy. We had four board directors at Phillips buy stock this summer, including one a couple weeks ago of a million dollars worth. And you've also got Elliot, one of the most successful, successful activists in the world, quite frankly, now has two board seats at Phillips and is on the record publicly stating this should be a 200 stock. So I bought a little bit today. Probably not done buying. I do believe that this will follow Marathon and Valero higher. I don't have a stop in, but if you want to risk, manage the position. I like 120. That is not only the 200 day moving average, it's also exactly where the stock bottomed in the first two weeks of August. The buyers came in in force. If they don't come in the next time it tests 120, I want out. I'll take the small loss. That being said, if Elliot is right and this should be a $200 name and the refiners remain bid, I think this thing could work and we'll see what happens.

Scott Wapner (29:31)

Okay, so Joe.

Joe Terranova (29:32)

Yes.

Scott Wapner (29:33)

Correct my memory if it's wrong. You bought within the last month. Ish. Phillips 66, Valero and Marathon together as a trade.

Joe Terranova (29:44)

Correct.

Scott Wapner (29:45)

And then if I recall correctly, within the last 10 days. Ish, you got out of all three.

Joe Terranova (29:50)

Incorrect.

Scott Wapner (29:51)

Okay, sold Marathon, you still have Phillips 66.

Joe Terranova (29:54)

Kept Phillips 66.

Scott Wapner (29:55)

I kept Valero as well. They're all part of his thesis in a way. What do you think of this move?

Joe Terranova (30:00)

Well, his thesis is one of the reasons why I kept Phillips 66. Valero and Marathon each had moved up towards 52 week highs. I looked at Philip 66, I saw the underperformance and I said, do I want to stay anchored to that position and believe that they can turn it around? And I think they can. A little bit more on what Josh is talking about with Elliott management. Here's the issue. It's an ideological issue within the company and Elliott management. The company has been pivoting in the last several years, going a little bit more diversified, getting into chemicals, getting into lng, moving away from their Downstream refining routes. Elliott has said, wait a second. We have a 5% position. That's not what we want you to do. We want you to focus on who you are, the downstream. Recently, Philips goes out and buys the remaining 50% stake that they had in WRB Refining from Synovus. That's an indication that maybe they are leaning towards exactly what Elliot Elliott management wants, which is focusing on the downstream. That gives you a little bit of excitement to believe that the underperformance, you'll be able to experience the mean reversion and it'll catch up to NPC and Valero.

Josh Brown (31:08)

Earnings. 3 1/2% dividend yield while you wait, guys.

Jim Lebenthal (31:11)

I think it's worth noting that Elliott had an absolute home run in Marathon Petroleum five years ago. I don't know if you remember that, but they got in, they were active. They made a killing. When. When Marathon spun out. Speedway. Not the same thing at Phillips, but they know what they're doing.

Scott Wapner (31:25)

I think also, Joe, you own Electronic Arts, right?

Joe Terranova (31:29)

I do.

Scott Wapner (31:30)

And Josh, you recently bought that. Yes, right, I did. I sense a trend here.

Josh Brown (31:35)

We're both from the South Shore, Long Island. We both eat at Mateo's in 388. We both play golf together. There's a lot of. There's a lot of.

Joe Terranova (31:43)

I think he looks at the holdings in Jyoti and he. He's like, best stocks in the market.

Jim Lebenthal (31:48)

There they are.

Scott Wapner (31:49)

All right.

AT&T Business Announcer (31:50)

Good stuff.

Josh Brown (31:50)

We like winners, Judge. I'm not going to apologize for it.

Scott Wapner (31:53)

Don't apologize. Don't apologize at all. You can join Josh, by the way, at our next CNBC Pro Live event at the New York Stock Exchange. Where is that? That's right here. January 15th, we'll have a series of interactive clinics to help you invest, chart and trade like a pro. Limited tickets on sale now. You could scan the QR code on the screen. You can visit cnbc events.comprolive for more with that lineup right there. The headlines now with Mackenzie Segales. Hi, Mackenzie.

Mackenzie Segales (32:23)

Hey, Scott. So Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas speaking to the UN this morning via video link after the US blocked a visa for him to appear in person. Now, Abbas said that Hamas will have no role in governing Gaza and must hand over its weapons. He pledged to work to implement a peace plan and ended by saying that despite, despite the deadly war, Palestinians, quote, will not leave our homeland. Ford is recalling more than 115,000 trucks over a defect that could lead to loss of steering control. That's according to federal regulators who say the Recall affects certain F250 F350 and F450 trucks for model years 2020 through 2021. Now, according to the recall notice, Ford will inspect and repair or replace the faulty component free of charge. And the final point, Tennis ball of Carlos Alcaraz's US Open title win over Jannik Sinner sold for $88,900 at Sotheby's on Tuesday. That is a record sale for a tennis ball sold at a public auction. Alcaraz won the US Open in four sets for a sixth Grand Slam singles title. Back to you.

Jim Lebenthal (33:28)

Imagine a banana taped to a golf ball. Taped to a tennis ball.

Scott Wapner (33:33)

I wish. Thinking like, nft, we're back, we're back. Then we sell like we deal with that NFT picture sold for like $40 million or something like that.

Joe Terranova (33:44)

89,000 for a tennis ball?

Josh Brown (33:46)

Why not? Why not, why not? 100,000. What's the difference?

Joe Terranova (33:49)

I'll pay $10 for your golf ball.

Scott Wapner (33:53)

We're back with Santa.

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Scott Wapner (35:03)

All right, senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joining us now. You want to give me any of your thoughts on what Griffin had to say? I mean, you just don't hear from him that often. And he's rare in that he's willing to speak his mind on anything. There's really no filter on what he thinks about kind of the markets, the political space on AI certainly echoes of the dot com bubble. The White House should essentially stay out of corporate America's business. Quote, when the state becomes involved in picking winners and losers, there's only one way this game ends. All of us lose. Tariff inflation. It's coming. What do you think?

Mike Santoli (35:43)

Yeah, I mean, I think on one level, he sort of remains very anchored to the worldview and principles and his ideas about how markets should operate and how the economy should behave as he always has. And so he's not making any adaptations as you see a lot of folks do, sort of making this sense of, well, you know, we need national champions. The government should be investing on the behalf of the taxpayers in a way we hadn't done before. Maybe there's extraordinary circumstances on the echoes of the, you know, the dot com bubble. I don't think that's really that controversial. It's a matter of whether you think those echoes are kind of deafening or they're just kind of faint and just getting going or frankly if we're even going to end up in a similar spot. That's the part that I've pushed back on. Nothing. You shouldn't be deterministic about it. That says, oh, just because this has been happening for three years. Last time it happened for five years and last time we got this kind of extremes. You know, all you're saying if you say that the NASDAQ is not now situated the way it was at the end of the dot com bubble is we're not headed for a 75% decline in the next two years because that's what happened back then. So to me that's not exactly a very strong statement in one direction or the other. But I think what's interesting today is the market has decided to purge some of those froth pockets. Right? That's, that's what's happened repeatedly as you and I have discussed, Scott, as much as we talk ourselves into bubble watch sometimes that inoculates us against going too far in the short term. And so it feels like some of the main bullish drivers are still there, but maybe getting slightly played out in the, in the moment or reloading for that matter.

Scott Wapner (37:14)

Well, I mean rates could be the great offender of many ideas about this market that, okay, we're not going to get as many cuts as maybe we first thought. Goolsbee was on the tape with some headlines. Maybe as much he's against front loading interest rate cuts. You heard Ken Griffin say one more this year. If you have rates remain elevated, that's not great for the growth trade. And that's been the pillar of the whole market. Takes you full circle to everything we always talk about.

Josh Brown (37:41)

I would say it's not great for.

Mike Santoli (37:43)

The small cap trade, it's not great for housing starting to reaccelerate if you were hoping for that. I don't think the secular growth trade is completely rate dependent or really very rate dependent at all at this point. You know, it's not as if the leadership of the Mag 7 has been very, very sensitive to the oscillations in rates. I also think we're starting from a benign level. So, yeah, I agree that this whole idea that we're going to get nirvana with the Fed cutting into a strong economy in a straight line is definitely being questioned. But, you know, this market takes away and puts back anticipated cuts all the time. And we managed to absorb it.

Scott Wapner (38:22)

Yeah, good stuff as always. I'll see you on closing belts. Mike Santoli up next. Even more committee moves. We'll talk to Joe about two stocks he's selling. Stay with us. The trades are next. All right, let's do some Jyoti moves. So you sold Trade Web and Broadridge Financial?

Joe Terranova (38:54)

Yes, about five weeks ago. I got greedy.

Scott Wapner (38:57)

These things both were not good.

Joe Terranova (38:59)

Oh, my God, Awful.

Scott Wapner (39:00)

Both of them.

Joe Terranova (39:00)

I lost about 12% on I got greedy a couple of weeks ago. My financial sector exposure, obviously very significant because of my ownership of Jyoti. Personally, I have names like Goldman Sachs. I just want to build where I didn't have in the financial sector. I went out, I bought Trade Web. I bought CBOE personally. Personally, I bought Broadridge.

Scott Wapner (39:21)

These are personal moves. No relation to.

Joe Terranova (39:23)

They are all personal moves.

Scott Wapner (39:25)

However, Trade Web still is.

Joe Terranova (39:28)

Trade Web is still in Jyoti and it has not. Listen, I know people are tied. I know people to work at the company. It's a great company. It doesn't matter. It's just not performing. And I got greedy. And the market will humble and correct your behavior when you get greedy. I had enough financial sector exposure and it's time to move to the sidelines. And hopefully me, as you said, throwing in the towel is the bottom for both of these companies.

Scott Wapner (39:51)

Okay, Josh, you have thoughts here? I mean, you sold NASDAQ on April 4th. There was a call on CME Group today, which was upgraded to a buy target 300 bucks at Citi. You have liked this space a lot.

Josh Brown (40:05)

Yeah, NASDAQ worked really well. I was longing the stock for a while, but I've been out for a while, still on my radar. Recently I've talked about the exchanges, cme, cboe, like these businesses, anything that, anything that is hosting any sort of trading activity is just absolutely on fire. And so sometimes you'll get big rallies in rates and, you know, the volatility in the stock market, you know, commodity volatility, like all of these things are filtering through to increase profits of these companies. And the market gets it.

Joe Terranova (40:38)

They're.

Josh Brown (40:38)

They're taking these stocks higher. I Wouldn't want to stand in the way of any of them. Not currently long cme, but I think the stock looks great.

Scott Wapner (40:45)

I got a news alert with Mackenzie Segal as we're hearing from Amazon now, I believe.

Mackenzie Segales (40:50)

Mac, yeah, we just heard from Amazon on that two and a half billion dollar settlement deal that they just signed with the Federal Trade Commission this morning. The company saying, quote, Amazon and our executives have always followed the law and this settlement allows us to move forward and focus on innovating for our customers. Adding that they're working hard to make it clear and simple for those customers to both sign up or cancel their prime membership. As part of the settlement, Amazon will pay a $1 billion civil penalty to the FTC. They'll also be creating a one and a half billion dollar consumer fund to reimburse the 35 million customers who were impacted. Scott.

Scott Wapner (41:25)

All right, Mackenzie Segalos, thank you. Josh, you want to comment on this? Big supporter of the stock, obviously. Two and a half billion dollars for a company like this. I don't like to spend other people's money, but it's kind of a rounding error.

Josh Brown (41:37)

It's a win. Just get it over it. None of it, by the way. My guess, none of the people that I signed up for prime canceled anyway. Like, it's not a high churn business. By and large, people are very happy with what they're getting as consumers using Amazon Prime. And I don't think this changes that in any way.

Scott Wapner (41:54)

Well, this is why when you hear about enforcement action or regulatory issues around names as large as this.

Josh Brown (42:01)

Yeah.

Scott Wapner (42:01)

The stocks barely do anything because X expects a forced breakup, which didn't happen in Alphabet's case. The stocks are like, okay, well, investors are, well, they just write a check and we'll be done. Like Josh said, write the check, get it over.

Jim Lebenthal (42:16)

Right. It's a tax deductible expense. Usually. Insurance sometimes covers it. This is kind of a nothing.

Scott Wapner (42:21)

All right, we'll take a break. We come back, man versus Machine. We have some new numbers on the rise of AI and stock picking. And you got to see them to believe them. We'll do it next. All right. Welcome back. Well, we talk all the time how AI is transforming or will transform how we'll do just about everything, including pick stocks. Really interesting report today from Reuters. Check this out. An AI selected stock basket outperformed the UK's top funds. Check that out. Okay. Chat GPT selected stocks outperformed 55% to 36%. I think we, we built that for you guys to see. Half of retail investors say they're open to using AI tools. Chat GPT used by 13% of retail investors for their stock selection. Yeah, we can take this a number of different places. Josh, you first go down the list.

Josh Brown (43:31)

Everyone's using ChatGPT.

Scott Wapner (43:32)

Yeah. Well, are you better using Chat GPT than the human?

Josh Brown (43:36)

I guess it's, it's, it's a weird thing. Like, who's not using chat? Every person working in any research role on Wall street, off Wall street, is using CHAT GPT. It's just replacing. They were using Google. Would you say like Google enabled stock picking versus like it's. I guess there's no control group. Tell me one person who's investing in the market that hasn't looked something up about a stock they own, but this.

Scott Wapner (43:59)

Isn'T looking something up. This is using AI to actually make your portfolio. And it beat the UK's top funds. So.

Josh Brown (44:07)

But do you see the, the obvious next step? If that's the case, then eventually everyone does the same thing and that edge gets completely nullified. It ain't gonna take three years, it'll take three months. If they tell you these are the inputs we used, these are the prompts for ChatGPT, and it resulted in outperformance of 20 percentage points. Well, great. The whole market just shifts to, okay, we'll do that too. And then the edge goes away. It's so obvious. Happens all the time.

Joe Terranova (44:35)

Real quick, Jimmy. So really what to stop does is it opens up the opportunity for the retail community because the institutional community in a different form is already for years incorporating algorithms.

Scott Wapner (44:48)

This is a retail conversation for sure.

Joe Terranova (44:50)

But here's what happens and here's the challenge. As the retail community en masse sees, as Josh says, the same thing, the institutional algorithms pick up on that. There used to be a quantitative program that was run which was called Search and Destroy. Search and Destroy basically said, let's identify what the masses see in the market and force them to literally get stopped out. And I think that is going to be the negative effect of this.

Scott Wapner (45:16)

How about the retail investor plugs in, says, okay, Chat GPT, give me whatever your picture. Should I buy?

Josh Brown (45:24)

Should I buy?

Scott Wapner (45:24)

Open today, the 20 best stocks. And they call their RIA and they're like, look, man, chat says we need this and here's why, and here's the proof.

Jim Lebenthal (45:36)

Put that chart back up. It's really cute to look at this over 600 days from point A to point B. Do you see that nauseating head spinning drop in April? That was much greater for the Chat gp.

Scott Wapner (45:47)

Yeah, well, that's because everybody. That's because everything went down on Liberation Day.

Jim Lebenthal (45:50)

This went down twice as much. I mean, come on, Scott, you cannot blow this off. This is important and all of us know this. One of the most important things we do is when the markets go down is we keep people from turning temporary losses into permanent losses. ChatGPT won't do that for you. And it's going to be even uglier in the downturn. You're going to want to sell more during the downturn when you don't really know what the heck you own or why.

Bill Baruch (46:15)

He's right.

Scott Wapner (46:17)

We got to go. I like you. You've got to defend your turf. You got to defend your turf. Well. You do. Finals next Pharma. Jim Citigroup.

Jim Lebenthal (46:30)

Check the news today.

Bill Baruch (46:31)

Bill Baruch LNG Coiling.

Joe Terranova (46:33)

Joe T. Apple going higher.

Josh Brown (46:35)

Josh Brown, BRK Big.

Scott Wapner (46:37)

All right, Tom Lee and Adam Parker will join me on the closing bell. 3:00 clock Eastern Time does it for us. View this market does. The exchange begins now. You've been Listening listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live, weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

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