CNBC Halftime Report
Episode: The State of the Tech Trade (2/25/26)
Host: Scott Wapner
Panelists: Joe Terranova, Shannon Sokotov, Jim Laventhal, Rich Saperstein
Air Date: February 25, 2026
Episode Overview
This episode dives deep into the state of the "tech trade" with a focus on the day's pivotal earnings for Nvidia, Salesforce, and Snowflake. The panel debates the broader tech landscape, recent market rotations, valuations, AI risks, the software sector’s struggles, and the growing private credit market, drawing connections between today's earnings and the overall confidence—or skepticism—in mega-cap and software tech. The conversation also explores topical moves in sectors like healthcare, consumer staples, home builders, and venture funding.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Stakes for Tech: Spotlight on Nvidia, Salesforce & Snowflake
[00:51–07:07]
- Nvidia as Bellwether: All panelists agree Nvidia's earnings are crucial given its symbolic role in the tech trade and massive capital flows from hyperscalers ($670B in CapEx expected this year).
- "I am 100% confident that exactly is what it means to the marketplace. That bellwether is critical." — Joe Terranova [01:58]
- Tech Rotation: Despite previously leading, Nasdaq and most megacaps were down YTD while other sectors outperformed.
- Earnings Reactions: There’s pessimism over whether “blowout” earnings will significantly move share prices, since top-line beats have not translated to outsized rallies lately.
- "A great report doesn't necessarily mean great price action. And that, frankly, is something probably more interesting to watch than anything else." — Scott Wapner [04:50]
- AI Bubble Anxiety: New risk perception highlighted—BofA survey lists an 'AI bubble' as top investor worry for the first time (23% see as primary risk).
- "AI bubble now seen as the number one risk for the first time ever. That's why I think there's added and greater importance on these in total today." — Scott Wapner [07:07]
2. Tech Sector Divergence: Software versus Semis
[07:26–10:17]
- Software’s Challenges: Recent downgrades (Piper Sandler to neutral) and weak performance in software vs semis prompt cautious positioning.
- Valuations: Panelists debate whether current software multiples (some now ~12x forward earnings, down from mid-30s) price in the right level of skepticism.
- "It's not a question of earnings. It's a question of what we're paying for earnings... when we're down at roughly 12 times for some of these companies that it's cheap enough." — Jim Laventhal [09:08]
3. Fundamental Market Concerns: Oversupply, Obsolescence, and Competitive Pressures
[05:46–08:25]
- AI Disruption: Ongoing concern that AI advances could make certain business lines obsolete; investors weigh productivity promise vs. cannibalization risks in old-line software.
- Nvidia’s Competitive Moat: Jensen Huang’s comments reinforce management confidence amid rising AMD/XPU competition.
- “We're the only company in the world that takes our roadmap and all of our secrets and we share it to our customers who are also building their own chips internally. That's how much confidence we have.” — Jensen Huang (replay) [13:47]
4. Private Credit and Systemic Risk Concerns
[20:41–28:25]
- Major industry figures (Boaz Weinstein, Mark Lasry, Lloyd Blankfein) caution about rising defaults and the risks of exposing retail investors to illiquid, opaque private credit.
- “I think we are in the super early innings of the wheels coming off the car.” — Boaz Weinstein [21:07]
- “No reason to tie money up in an illiquid investment when you can replicate those returns on an after-tax basis in a fully liquid municipal bond.” — Rich Saperstein [25:25]
- Debate focuses on liquidity risk more than actual credit risk—distinction made between holding illiquid instruments and likelihood of losses/defaults.
5. Investment Committee’s Portfolio Moves
Health Care Defensive Plays
[30:25–32:56]
- Rich Saperstein adds to Pfizer & Bristol-Myers Squibb: Defensive positioning, strong cash flows, and pipelines with >40 compounds each.
- “The thesis is broadening of the market. Put the defensive team on the field.” — Rich Saperstein [30:35]
- Panelists also highlight Merck, AbbVie, Lilly—healthcare as a working rotation story since late Q4.
Homebuilder & Consumer Staples Check-In
[35:39–39:47]
- Homebuilders Pullback: Despite lowest mortgage rates in four years, homebuilding stocks fall, attributed more to technical correction and cautious signals from Home Depot/Lowe’s than policy.
- Costco & Retail Dominance: Long-term optimism despite recent mild underperformance; lauded for renewal rates and global growth but noted expensive PEG.
Other Rotation and Earnings Comments
- First Solar: Guidance light, stock down 12%. Panel sees slower growth ahead, wouldn’t add here.
- Netflix: Up 5% as market shrugs off ongoing M&A drama—panelist remains cautious pending further clarity.
- Thrive Capital’s OpenAI Deal: News break on Thrive’s discount entry into OpenAI, highlighting VC relationships and ongoing mega-rounds.
- “…thrive was able to get in at a discount, get this preferential price… speaks to this close relationship between Josh Kushner and Sam Altman.” — Kate Rooney [41:10]
6. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “Offensive team is off the field right now and a defensive team is on the field...” — Rich Saperstein [03:47]
- “We can't have this massive overbuild of data centers and then at the same time, say that AI is killing everything in its path.” — Jim Laventhal [08:12]
- “If you believe that software has resolved the carnage of the last several months... you're buying the private credit names because that's really the opaqueness of all of this...” — Joe Terranova [18:16]
- “In a world that moves way faster than you can get in and out of them...I wouldn't go near [private credit] now.” — Rich Saperstein [22:35]
- “This is where I think this is ultimately going as it relates to private credit. It is complex, it is opaque...” — Joe Terranova [27:52]
- “In the world where there will ultimately be three dominant retailers, Walmart, Amazon, and Costco, I think you've got to take a position.” — Rich Saperstein [39:11]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Tech Trade & Market Setup: [00:51–07:07]
- AI Bubble, Valuations, and Sector Rotation: [04:50–14:01]
- Private Credit Systemic Risk Debate: [20:41–28:25]
- Healthcare Portfolio Moves: [30:25–32:56]
- Homebuilders, Retail, and Rotation: [35:39–39:47]
- Venture/AI Funding Update (OpenAI/Thrive): [40:33–42:39]
- Final Trades & Sector Calls: [45:56–47:01]
Final Trades & Closing Thoughts
- Rich Saperstein: Microsoft—"Now’s the time to be adding it. A great opportunity to buy a hyperscaler." [46:19]
- Jim Laventhal: Apollo Global—"Actions speak louder than words." [46:46]
- Shannon Sokotov: Energy sector for more room to run.
- Joe Terranova: TJX, long-term buy after a solid earnings report.
Summary
This Halftime Report dissected the contrasting fortunes within tech on the eve of pivotal earnings, highlighting investor caution amid AI bubble concerns and private credit risks—while panelists emphasized the need for careful stock selection, sector rotation toward defensives, and skepticism in frothy areas. Throughout, the tone balanced urgency with humor and the trademark “debate as market theater,” accentuated by rapid-fire opinions and colorful metaphors. For investors, the episode delivered a nuanced snapshot of the late February 2026 market psyche and the main narratives shaping both risk and opportunity.