Podcast Summary: Halftime Report – "The Tariff Trade" (March 5, 2025)
Introduction
In the March 5, 2025 episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report titled "The Tariff Trade," host Scott Wapner engages with top market experts Joe Terranova, Carrie Firestone, and Steve Weiss to dissect the ongoing tariff trade and its ripple effects on the stock market. Airing live from the midday market action, the discussion delves into economic indicators, market movements, and strategic stock recommendations amidst the fluctuating geopolitical landscape.
Key Topics Discussed
- Current Market Dynamics and Tariff Impacts
- Economic Indicators and Their Influence on Markets
- Sector-Specific Analyses: Technology, Healthcare, Financials, and Consumer Goods
- Strategic Stock Recommendations Amidst Tariff Uncertainty
- Future Outlook and Market Stabilization
1. Current Market Dynamics and Tariff Impacts
Scott Wapner opens the discussion by highlighting the central issue of tariffs and their immediate impact on stock performance. With the Dow performing better while other indices show mixed responses, the panel assesses the likelihood of further tariff-related headlines influencing market volatility.
Notable Quotes:
- Scott Wapner [01:00]: “Front and center this hour, the tariff trade and the impact on stocks.”
- Carrie Firestone [04:05]: “Investors should understand that what is said is different from what is going to be implemented.”
2. Economic Indicators and Their Influence on Markets
The conversation shifts to recent economic data, including weak ADP employment numbers and a bear steepening yield curve. The S&P 500's decline by approximately 3% over the week is examined, raising concerns about market stabilization.
Notable Quotes:
- Scott Wapner [01:00]: “The economic data continues to weaken a bit. ADP missed badly.”
- Steve Weiss [08:20]: “I do think the market is oversold for right now and could pop. But overall, I'm still negative.”
3. Sector-Specific Analyses
Technology Sector
The discussion highlights the struggles within the tech sector, particularly the Mag 7 (Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, etc.), and their significant deviation from record highs. The panel debates whether a halt in the decline of these giants would stabilize the broader market.
Notable Quotes:
- Steve Weiss [10:14]: “I think Max 7 is the place to be.”
- Joe Terranova [10:14]: “I have conviction in Metta and Amazon.”
Healthcare Sector
Healthcare emerges as the year's best-performing sector. The panel discusses top picks like Amgen and UnitedHealth, citing their resilience and growth potential despite broader market uncertainties.
Notable Quotes:
- Joe Terranova [28:08]: “I rotated into another large cap biotech name, Amgen.”
- Carrie Firestone [29:03]: “Amgen is a really good trade. It’s a low multiple stock with a yield.”
Financials Sector
Mixed performances are noted within major banks. While Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley show upward trends, JPMorgan and Citi are down. The insurance sector, particularly Chubb, is highlighted as a leader within financials.
Notable Quotes:
- Joe Terranova [23:51]: “The insurance industry is the leadership in the financial sector.”
- Carrie Firestone [24:38]: “Chubb is a company that we own and I like.”
Consumer Goods and Retail Sector
The retail sector faces challenges, with significant declines seen in companies like Gap and Target. In contrast, Walmart and Costco are favored, benefiting from strong consumer spending on experiences over goods.
Notable Quotes:
- Joe Terranova [25:41]: “Names to own clearly are Walmart, Costco, TJX.”
- Carrie Firestone [25:20]: “People continue to spend on experiences rather than goods.”
4. Strategic Stock Recommendations Amidst Tariff Uncertainty
The panel provides targeted stock recommendations for investors seeking safe havens amidst the tariff-induced volatility. Recommendations include:
- Netflix: Despite recent declines, Netflix is praised for its strong subscriber base and competitive positioning against Disney Plus.
- Visa: Seen as a robust performer with consistent market share growth.
- Charles Schwab and CME: Highlighted for their solid fundamentals and position within their respective industries.
Notable Quotes:
- Steve Weiss [40:51]: “I still like Netflix. It’s a phenomenal story.”
- Carrie Firestone [41:16]: “Visa continues to take market share. It’s the best in the business.”
5. Future Outlook and Market Stabilization
Looking ahead, the experts discuss potential scenarios that could lead to market stabilization. The possibility of a one-month delay in tariffs on Canadian and Mexican autos is considered a temporary respite. However, with the anticipation of ongoing tariff negotiations until at least mid-April, uncertainty remains a significant factor.
Notable Quotes:
- Steve Weiss [06:34]: “We remain unsettled until at least mid-April.”
- Mike Santoli [35:32]: “The market craves reassurance about the macro picture.”
Insights and Expert Opinions
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Joe Terranova: Indicates skepticism about finding domestic equity leadership in the near term, pointing out capital flow into Europe and taxable fixed income markets.
Quote [02:03]: “Capital right now is flowing out of the US. It’s flowing into Europe.”
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Carrie Firestone: Emphasizes focusing on industries with sustainable growth regardless of daily headlines, such as chips and AI development.
Quote [04:47]: “What industries can persist and sustain their growth regardless of headlines.”
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Steve Weiss: Highlights the destabilizing effect of noisy headlines without strategic consistency, warning of potential losses in government relations and corporate spending.
Quote [05:46]: “The noise is so loud and things are moving so quickly and there’s no strategy behind the noise.”
Conclusions
The panel concludes that the market remains highly sensitive to tariff developments and economic indicators. While certain sectors like healthcare and select technology stocks offer resilience, overall market uncertainty persists due to fluctuating geopolitical tensions and weakening economic data. Investors are advised to focus on stocks with strong fundamentals and to stay cautious amidst ongoing tariff negotiations.
Final Notable Quotes:
- Steve Weiss [14:22]: “I have conviction in Alphabet. They are recession-resistant.”
- Scott Wapner [16:25]: “Let’s do our chart of the day. CrowdStrike falls on disappointing earnings.”
Closing Remarks
As the episode wraps up, Scott Wapner teases upcoming discussions on healthcare's top performers and safe port stocks amidst the tariff storm, encouraging listeners to stay tuned for actionable investment insights.
Timestamp Highlights:
- 01:00 – Introduction to tariff trade impact.
- 02:03 – Joe Terranova on capital flows out of the US.
- 05:46 – Steve Weiss on tariff-related market noise.
- 10:14 – Discussion on Mag 7 and market leadership.
- 28:08 – Transition to healthcare sector insights.
- 40:51 – Stock recommendations for safe havens.
- 43:34 – Market movers and specific stock analyses.
- 45:19 – Final trades and closing comments.
This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and expert insights from the "The Tariff Trade" episode of Halftime Report, providing a comprehensive overview for listeners and non-listeners alike.