The Tariff Trade 3/5/25

Summary

Podcast Summary: Halftime Report – "The Tariff Trade" (March 5, 2025)

Introduction

In the March 5, 2025 episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report titled "The Tariff Trade," host Scott Wapner engages with top market experts Joe Terranova, Carrie Firestone, and Steve Weiss to dissect the ongoing tariff trade and its ripple effects on the stock market. Airing live from the midday market action, the discussion delves into economic indicators, market movements, and strategic stock recommendations amidst the fluctuating geopolitical landscape.

Key Topics Discussed

1. Current Market Dynamics and Tariff Impacts
2. Economic Indicators and Their Influence on Markets
3. Sector-Specific Analyses: Technology, Healthcare, Financials, and Consumer Goods
4. Strategic Stock Recommendations Amidst Tariff Uncertainty
5. Future Outlook and Market Stabilization

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1. Current Market Dynamics and Tariff Impacts

Scott Wapner opens the discussion by highlighting the central issue of tariffs and their immediate impact on stock performance. With the Dow performing better while other indices show mixed responses, the panel assesses the likelihood of further tariff-related headlines influencing market volatility.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Wapner [01:00]: “Front and center this hour, the tariff trade and the impact on stocks.”
• Carrie Firestone [04:05]: “Investors should understand that what is said is different from what is going to be implemented.”

2. Economic Indicators and Their Influence on Markets

The conversation shifts to recent economic data, including weak ADP employment numbers and a bear steepening yield curve. The S&P 500's decline by approximately 3% over the week is examined, raising concerns about market stabilization.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Wapner [01:00]: “The economic data continues to weaken a bit. ADP missed badly.”
• Steve Weiss [08:20]: “I do think the market is oversold for right now and could pop. But overall, I'm still negative.”

3. Sector-Specific Analyses

Technology Sector

The discussion highlights the struggles within the tech sector, particularly the Mag 7 (Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, etc.), and their significant deviation from record highs. The panel debates whether a halt in the decline of these giants would stabilize the broader market.

Notable Quotes:

• Steve Weiss [10:14]: “I think Max 7 is the place to be.”
• Joe Terranova [10:14]: “I have conviction in Metta and Amazon.”

Healthcare Sector

Healthcare emerges as the year's best-performing sector. The panel discusses top picks like Amgen and UnitedHealth, citing their resilience and growth potential despite broader market uncertainties.

Notable Quotes:

• Joe Terranova [28:08]: “I rotated into another large cap biotech name, Amgen.”
• Carrie Firestone [29:03]: “Amgen is a really good trade. It’s a low multiple stock with a yield.”

Financials Sector

Mixed performances are noted within major banks. While Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley show upward trends, JPMorgan and Citi are down. The insurance sector, particularly Chubb, is highlighted as a leader within financials.

Notable Quotes:

• Joe Terranova [23:51]: “The insurance industry is the leadership in the financial sector.”
• Carrie Firestone [24:38]: “Chubb is a company that we own and I like.”

Consumer Goods and Retail Sector

The retail sector faces challenges, with significant declines seen in companies like Gap and Target. In contrast, Walmart and Costco are favored, benefiting from strong consumer spending on experiences over goods.

Notable Quotes:

• Joe Terranova [25:41]: “Names to own clearly are Walmart, Costco, TJX.”
• Carrie Firestone [25:20]: “People continue to spend on experiences rather than goods.”

4. Strategic Stock Recommendations Amidst Tariff Uncertainty

The panel provides targeted stock recommendations for investors seeking safe havens amidst the tariff-induced volatility. Recommendations include:

• Netflix: Despite recent declines, Netflix is praised for its strong subscriber base and competitive positioning against Disney Plus.
• Visa: Seen as a robust performer with consistent market share growth.
• Charles Schwab and CME: Highlighted for their solid fundamentals and position within their respective industries.

Notable Quotes:

• Steve Weiss [40:51]: “I still like Netflix. It’s a phenomenal story.”
• Carrie Firestone [41:16]: “Visa continues to take market share. It’s the best in the business.”

5. Future Outlook and Market Stabilization

Looking ahead, the experts discuss potential scenarios that could lead to market stabilization. The possibility of a one-month delay in tariffs on Canadian and Mexican autos is considered a temporary respite. However, with the anticipation of ongoing tariff negotiations until at least mid-April, uncertainty remains a significant factor.

Notable Quotes:

• Steve Weiss [06:34]: “We remain unsettled until at least mid-April.”
• Mike Santoli [35:32]: “The market craves reassurance about the macro picture.”

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Insights and Expert Opinions

• Joe Terranova: Indicates skepticism about finding domestic equity leadership in the near term, pointing out capital flow into Europe and taxable fixed income markets.

  Quote [02:03]: “Capital right now is flowing out of the US. It’s flowing into Europe.”

• Carrie Firestone: Emphasizes focusing on industries with sustainable growth regardless of daily headlines, such as chips and AI development.

  Quote [04:47]: “What industries can persist and sustain their growth regardless of headlines.”

• Steve Weiss: Highlights the destabilizing effect of noisy headlines without strategic consistency, warning of potential losses in government relations and corporate spending.

  Quote [05:46]: “The noise is so loud and things are moving so quickly and there’s no strategy behind the noise.”

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Conclusions

The panel concludes that the market remains highly sensitive to tariff developments and economic indicators. While certain sectors like healthcare and select technology stocks offer resilience, overall market uncertainty persists due to fluctuating geopolitical tensions and weakening economic data. Investors are advised to focus on stocks with strong fundamentals and to stay cautious amidst ongoing tariff negotiations.

Final Notable Quotes:

• Steve Weiss [14:22]: “I have conviction in Alphabet. They are recession-resistant.”
• Scott Wapner [16:25]: “Let’s do our chart of the day. CrowdStrike falls on disappointing earnings.”

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Closing Remarks

As the episode wraps up, Scott Wapner teases upcoming discussions on healthcare's top performers and safe port stocks amidst the tariff storm, encouraging listeners to stay tuned for actionable investment insights.

Timestamp Highlights:

• 01:00 – Introduction to tariff trade impact.
• 02:03 – Joe Terranova on capital flows out of the US.
• 05:46 – Steve Weiss on tariff-related market noise.
• 10:14 – Discussion on Mag 7 and market leadership.
• 28:08 – Transition to healthcare sector insights.
• 40:51 – Stock recommendations for safe havens.
• 43:34 – Market movers and specific stock analyses.
• 45:19 – Final trades and closing comments.

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This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and expert insights from the "The Tariff Trade" episode of Halftime Report, providing a comprehensive overview for listeners and non-listeners alike.

Transcript

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[Scott Wapner]

Are you still quoting 30 year old movies? Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days? Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted? If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past. Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. And every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the now it pays to Discover. Learn [e-mail] credit card based on the February 2024 NEL I'm Scott Wapner and.

You'Re listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. All right, Carl, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, the tariff trade and the impact on stocks. We are trading the markets today with the investment committee as always. Joining me for the hour, Joe Terranova, Carrie Firestone, Steve Weiss. We'll show you the markets here where the Dow is higher. Everything else is, well, going positive as well. So interesting move here as we sort of assess what's happening here. We could get some more tariff headlines throughout the day. We will watch for those. Let's deal with what we know. How about, how about that tariffs are on. The economic data continues to weaken a bit. ADP missed badly. We've had a bear steepening in the yield curve. The front end falling on rate cut expectations. The long end is rising. The S and p down about 3% this week. When will this market stabilize? What has to happen here?

[Joe Terranova]

Well, if you're looking at domestic equities, you're hoping to find leadership somewhere. And I've said over the last week that I do not believe the market is close to finding that leadership. The momentum names that everyone keeps identifying, they are not going to have a V shaped recovery. Capital right now is flowing out of the US Very clearly. It's flowing into Europe. Germany is incredibly strong right now. Are experiencing some economic growth. You're seeing strong flows of capital going into the taxable fixed income market. Let's remember something. We came into 2025 with very bearish positioning as it relates to Treasuries. All the Trend following funds were basically caught offside expecting a 5% 10 year treasury that is being unwound as we speak now. And I also think that's affecting what's going on in the market. Looking at equities themselves, thinking about the Mag 7 thinking, thinking about quality, thinking about bond proxies. Where can you find that next leadership? That's what we are trying to determine. And we also have this technical orientation where the 200 day moving average is very close to current price. It was there yesterday. We bounced. We had a sharp bounce off the 200 day. It looks as though we want a second test to see what the reaction is going to be to buyers get incentivized at that point.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, so Kerry, I mentioned we are going to be headline driven. There is a headline I'm looking at now that says the US Is weighing a one month delay of Canada and Mexico tariffs on autos. I don't know if that's why the market looks like that where there was a bit of a move higher. But we're going to be pushed and pulled by a lot of the headlines that could come out of D.C. so how are our viewers supposed to navigate all of that when Wolf Research today says the rally is poised to make a stand? We're oversold but still more pain could be ahead because we didn't really have a big flush, we didn't have a big panic in the market. We've just had a tariff driven and growth scare driven slowdown.

[Carrie Firestone]

Right. So what a surprise we might delay the tariffs. This is what we should expect and investors should understand that what is said is different from what is going to be implemented. Therefore you have to just judge how serious you want to take these moves.

[Scott Wapner]

What we saw with tariffs like this right here, right. General Motors obviously moving on the headline, correct. Ford is you could pull Stellantis, you know the obvious places. If you're talking specifically about autos, you're going to get the movements there. But to your point, and it's well made, we're going to be driven all over the place. Right. What is today might not be tomorrow. What is today might not be the same in 10 minutes.

[Carrie Firestone]

So if you look at what industries can persist and sustain their growth regardless of what the headlines say every day and I think that's an important determination of where to look to invest. We know we, we have heard and we believe it that the spending on chips and on AI development is going to continue this year and next year. Companies have made that very clear and these big buyers the biggest companies in the world, Microsoft, Apple, Metta, Google, are spending the money. Amazon. So you can believe that these are going to continue. And if you want to place bets on a group that has fallen, that's a place to put some money. If you want to just trade, oh, it's better for financials today than it was yesterday. It's better for consumer today or tomorrow. I think that's a mistake because there are. There's weakness, there's uncertainty, there's deal postponement, and we understand that's going to continue.

[Scott Wapner]

There seems to be, Weiss, an expectation too, that no matter how, you know, you get driven by one headline and then driven by the next, that as long as the President and his team are talking about, you know, April, reciprocal tariffs. Remember that report on reciprocal tariffs is supposed to be coming due April 1st or the 2nd or whatever it is. JP Morgan's trading desk says that we're only at the beginning of Trade War 2.0, and with that study coming, you could see blanket tariffs. They say we expect this portion of the trade war to last until at least mid April. My question then to you is, does that mean that we just remain unsettled until at least mid April?

[Steve Weiss]

The answer is, in a word, yes, at least April, and I think longer than that. So, you know, to carry his point, there are headlines coming out. Which way do you go? Which headline do you buy into? Some say just ignore the noise. But here's why you can't ignore the noise. Because the noise is so loud and things are moving so quickly and there's no strategy behind the noise, that it's very destabilizing for corporate America. Now, take it one step further. I can tell you that of a number of people we talk to, you know, boards that I sit on across industries, not just defense, not just health care, but other industries as well, that everybody in government has their resume out. And again, it reminds me when I took over Lehman, those the top performers that could leave did leave when it was a mess, when it was 500 million revenue, losing money hand over fist. So you had to restaff. Except at Lehman, we had the balance sheet from, thank God, fixed income to do that. There is no balance sheet here for the federal government because the pay grades are the same. So you will lose the top people. What does that mean when you drill down? It means the relationships that corporate sales teams had with the procurement officers up and down the government, they may be lost. So you may have to rebuild those. So not knowing if your critical counterpart in government is going to be there. Not knowing what the tariffs are going to be, you pretty much grind spending to a halt.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, because, you know, I understand the uncertainty of, you know, CEOs in corporate America. The stagflation words been introduced. You know, Lispan's been talking about that. There was another article about it today, Ed Yardeni mentions that it could have a stagflationary consequence. And by the way, he's about as bullish as they, as they've been.

[Steve Weiss]

And I mentioned last week stagflation.

[Scott Wapner]

Right. It's the word of the moment because people just don't know what's going to happen. Bank of America talks about the tariffs and says a realistic bad case is a 10% hit to earnings. You just don't know.

[Steve Weiss]

They don't know.

[Scott Wapner]

They don't know. No one knows.

[Steve Weiss]

Right, right. But to me, I think it's pretty obvious that the direction in earnings is going to be lower. But it's not just CEOs, it's also individuals. You saw it in the jobs state. Who's going to hire, number one, Number two, who's going to spend not knowing if you're going to lose your job? So the amount of uncertainty created by this and then for the stagflation. So that takes care of the slowing for the inflationary. Sure. The, the, the situation with open borders had to be taken care of. Had to be. But that's inflationary. So you lose that, you lose those people. Right. And you'll have to pay up the scarcity of people that are here, that can work, number one. Number two, tariffs are going to raise prices. So you can take a look at the headline, Ford and I don't think it's a positive thing. He goes back and forth. That just means it's more uncertainty. So I'm still negative on the market. I do think the market is, is oversold for, for right now and could pop. But overall, I'm not putting cash.

[Scott Wapner]

What would make us bullish again? Asks JP Morgan today if we found a bottom in the Mag 7. That's what they suggest.

[Steve Weiss]

I think the Max 7 is the place to be.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, I mean, if you look at the amount that they're off of, their record highs, you know, Nvidia at This point is 24% off of its record high. Alphabet's 18, Microsoft 16, Amazon 15, Tesla, 45% off the highs. Is that a statement you would agree with, that if the Mag 7 stops going down, that the market itself is going to stop going down? I mean, obviously it's going to help at the index level?

[Joe Terranova]

Well, it's important to follow the Mag 7 because they really allow the viewers an opportunity to get a glimpse inside what is positioning look like and how does this process of reducing allocation towards overweight bullish areas of the market unfold clearly? When you look at the Mag 7 you're talking about pretty much universally that people are carrying the market weight or even extreme at overweight. So we're in that deleveraging process as it relates to the max seven. That's why you want to look at them. I look at the Max 7 right now. I see Metta, Apple and Amazon as the three names who technically still are in a pretty good formation above the 200 day moving average. Microsoft looks absolutely horrible. Tesla, if you're looking at that. Tesla has basically retraced the entirety of 150/40 plus percent gain since November 5th the day before the election. I think it's up now about 3 or 4%. It's closing that price gap that it had from the election. So I would focus on Amazon better and Apple. And to be real specific, the one name that I'm actually looking to buy would be Amazon.

[Scott Wapner]

Personally, I mean, Adam Parker is going to be on with me on closing Bell today at 3:00 and he just took his ratings down on tech to slightly, and I'm slightly underscored, underweight. Apple is interesting. It's down one and a half percent today and we've suggested that it's really the one to watch in all of this because it has such a large exposure to China for revenues almost 20%. And supply chain, well that's another aspect of it. Supply chain. Chips, you're going to have restrictions on chips, you're going to have tariffs on chips. Theoretically that's going to hit Apple more than anybody else in that group. Down 4% is that stock this week. The knock which I've repeated, which others would certainly say is that it is still trading at a premium PE without premium fundamentals. It's over 30 times forward. 31 I think.

[Joe Terranova]

But isn't it singing to the same beat of the White House right now? Isn't it in investing here in the United States, Aren't we supposed to make the assumption that that will allow them a degree of flexibility in terms of being able to go to the President and say, okay, some of the onerous measures that are being suggested, maybe that is going to be extremely detrimental to us and there'd be a willingness to listen to. Well, that's why we're supposed to.

[Scott Wapner]

Well that well, well that's why the stock is traded better than well, that's why the stock is traded better than the others.

[Carrie Firestone]

Because.

[Scott Wapner]

Because I think there's a belief that, you know, Tim Cook's effort to build a better relationship or let's just say a closer relationship. I'm not suggesting that it was bad. It had to be fixed. A closer relationship with the administration would theoretically give them a bit of an out on the tariffs. Now we don't know. We don't know but that's why the stock had traded better than the others in that space.

[Steve Weiss]

So. So you fix the cost side. You still got the revenue issues with 20% or so of their revenues from China and that already started to push back against Apple last year under Biden's administration when they prohibited government employees from using Apple devices. And by the way, you've got devices that are more feature rich than an Apple iPhone that are being sold in China by Chinese manufacturers.

[Carrie Firestone]

But there's still a lot of demand for Apple products all around the world.

[Steve Weiss]

It's not a question of demand. It's not a question of demand.

[Carrie Firestone]

It's a defensive stock, Steve. It's a stock that I don't think any stock I disagree with.

[Steve Weiss]

I don't think any stock with a 30 multiple with flat revenues and flat earnings can be defensive. It may have been in the past got a yield.

[Carrie Firestone]

It's got a huge amount of cash. It's got the balance sheet to support it and this is the monster buyback.

[Scott Wapner]

Monster buyback.

[Steve Weiss]

So why would you want to own say that's true okay and who knows right. You've got eviction on it. I don't really have much conviction but what I do conviction is what I do sorry is that I do have conviction in Metta. I do have conviction in Amazon.

[Scott Wapner]

Stop begging them on I do have.

[Steve Weiss]

Conviction in Alphabet so high conviction knows they are recession recession resistant the spending in AI is carry point out isn't going to stop. It may slow down a little bit but there's still enough there and for the consumers. Sure it's an ad model so you may see hits the ad budgets but I think those come out of others.

[Scott Wapner]

Not those Metta reiterated outperformed today at Wedbush. They like the setup coming out of earnings Alphabet's urging the Department of Justice to reverse course in breaking up that company. Yeah good luck. You want to I think you want to rebut what some more.

[Carrie Firestone]

Well I would say on that it's interesting that this is a piece of headline news. Google asked the Justice Department to sort of put a hold on. They've got a lot of stuff they're doing. I'm not sure that breaking up Alphabet is at the top of the list. I mean, I thought that was an interesting.

[Steve Weiss]

Some of the parts could be worth more than the whole, though.

[Carrie Firestone]

Yeah.

[Joe Terranova]

I think overall these tech companies are in a better position with the current administration than they were with the previous administration. And I, and I don't think you could dismiss the fact that Apple has expressed the, the willingness and also has indicated that they're actually going to be doing it to moving a lot of production here to the United States. And that seems to be, that seems to be the words that need to be spoken. A willingness to move the production here to the United States. And I agree. I think that is why Apple is performing, having that relative.

[Steve Weiss]

I'm not saying it's not a positive.

[Joe Terranova]

I know, clearly. Yes, no, I agree with that. But, but look, I agree with you. I think at some point we're going to come in and we're going to say there we go, back seven once again leading the market higher.

[Mike Santoli]

There's your leadership.

[Steve Weiss]

And if you take a look, because we've done a lot of work on this, on their trend in reassuring. It started before Trump. You know, it was coming here. What started was Covid. So nobody wants to be caught in that situation again. Will Trump accelerate? Yes, but in terms of the spending, whether it's Taiwan semi or whether it's Apple that was already spending that was going to go on. It's not any new incremental spending. So he can grab the headlines. But that's what it is.

[Scott Wapner]

I mean it's also, it's also more complicated. I mean, you know, weren't there agreements in Trump 1.0?

[Steve Weiss]

Yes.

[Scott Wapner]

On certain things. And a shovel never went into the ground.

[Steve Weiss]

Nope.

[Scott Wapner]

So, you know, you just, and we're all talking about years away projects. For most of it, Apple can say, well, we're investing X billions of dollars in the United States to build such and such products here. You know, wake me up when you know the production lines are. I mean it just takes time. Let's do our chart of the day. CrowdStrike. We talked about it on the way up, we're going to talk about it on the way down. Falls on disappointing earnings, their forecast. What do you think, Joe? There are some who look at the slide today and say like Mizuho does fantastic setup. That's what this pullback does. The stock's had an Incredible rebound from the issues of what six months ago. What do you think? You own the stock.

[Joe Terranova]

So I wouldn't use the word fantastic, but I would say you have to give them the benefit of the doubt. You have to trust that the subscription revenue growth in the second half of the year is going to be there. Keep in mind that one time discounts are now ending. They're rolling off. And I think that's one of the reasons why you've seen in the third quarterly report since the misstep of last summer that the guidance here was not so strong. So it's still above. Technically you're still above the 200 day moving average. I think it's at 333, not breaking down. But fundamentally they get the benefit of the doubt in my opinion. And I do think in the back half of the year that's why you're buying it today, because that subscription revenue growth will be there.

[Scott Wapner]

Palantir got up today, by the way. William Blair had it as underperformed. I don't know how long they had it there. Presumably that didn't work. Well, they upgraded, upgraded it to market perform though. Joe, what's your take here on this stock which has been really at the forefront of the momentum unwind?

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah.

[Joe Terranova]

And you had this nine day period from February 18 to February 28 where it fell from 125 down to an intraday low of 78.58. What's the bounce look like? Not really a V, more of a U. I said a couple of weeks ago I want to buy this stock. If you don't own it around 84, 85. Well guess what, it's right there. It's kind of sitting there. The market generally after you have that type of freefall, it doesn't give you the opportunity to buy it over a prolonged period at an expressed price. If you say I want to buy it at 85, usually it goes down to 85. It's there for a moment, you look in the afternoon, you say oh, it traded 85 and I missed it. Next thing you know you're paying 89.

[Scott Wapner]

Right now you're paying 86. So if you missed at 85 was $1 make a huge difference. Let me ask you this.

[Joe Terranova]

I still don't think it's a strong enough for bounce.

[Scott Wapner]

So you own it in the etf.

[Joe Terranova]

Yes. And the momentum is still, believe it or not, the momentum, if you're measuring momentum on a 12 month basis, it's still positive.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, so why don't you buy it personally?

[Joe Terranova]

Then because I own it in the etf, I own a lot of momentum names that have lost leadership and I am not ready to basically double down on a factor of momentum which is clearly in a correction process.

[Steve Weiss]

I ask you two questions, please.

[Scott Wapner]

You can.

[Steve Weiss]

So we all know that that and we've seen it countless times that in a slowing economy, enterprise spending, which is CrowdStrike is the first to be put on pause. Deals get pushed out, that's one thing. And the direction of the what we're seeing in economic data, including jobs day would say that's that the economy slow. Second thing is if you want to cut costs in the government, why wouldn't you say we know that they're not, that DOGE is not sensitive to the security of data by sending you know people that clearance and to treasury and all that thing. So why wouldn't you say why are we double paying for cyber. Why can't just Microsoft's very good cyber protection, you know, do enough for us? So with, you know, with CrowdStrike's exposure to the government, the other's exposure to the government, why isn't that an added risk? Both of which should really hit the multiple and maybe down 8% today is enough for going forward.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah.

[Joe Terranova]

I think again we look at, we look at markets strategically different. Right. That's something that is, is taking a fair minded theoretical look at the optionality of what's ahead in the future and it's a reasonable expectation that you present. I'm not dismissing it, but it's not ultimately what I do.

[Steve Weiss]

Got it.

[Joe Terranova]

It's not how I'm looking at things and saying things theoretically in the future this may unfold. Yeah it's obvious to me if that happens, Steve, you're 100% right, that's damaging towards revenue and EPS growth. But I just can't sit there and speculate this might happen. Might not happen.

[Scott Wapner]

A net upgraded today to a buy the Target 115 at UBS. You own that stock. What do you think about that one?

[Joe Terranova]

Well, you do as well. This, this should, should be working a little bit better than it than it has recently. It's been a little bit on the decline. You would think that the networking here related to AI and the data center connectivity would have a little bit of a more of a positive benefit. I do agree this is the right spot technically if you want to make the play on it. And if there's going to be an overall recovery in technology, this will be one of the clear leaders because it is identified as an AI.

[Scott Wapner]

Leader Applovin is down another 4% today. What about that one?

[Joe Terranova]

So Applovin, I think you asked me on Monday if I thought it was up at around 350, 355, if you thought that was it, if the bottom was in. And again, no, it's just a classic example of it looks, it looks like a U, it doesn't look like a V. And you need a V. You need that V type of bounce to really gain confidence that you've ultimately reached a bottom. You know what's interesting is, yeah, everyone's kind of looking at where we are technically and saying we're riding slightly above the 200 day moving average.

[Mike Santoli]

Average.

[Joe Terranova]

We're trying to find support. We're hoping that we come out and that there's going to be a relaxation in the tariffs. Really the other side of that is if you want to get to a tradable bottom, it's probably, let's get the bad news out of the way. Let's flush below the 200 day moving average. Let's basically get all those non discretionary funds stopped out and then ultimately you'll find your bottom and get the V shaped recovery. But at Applovin, you don't have that.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. Bitcoin is slightly higher, still volatile, obviously. Weiss, you're done.

[Steve Weiss]

I'm done.

[Scott Wapner]

All crypto positions now, kaput for you.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah, look, I'm sure there's going to be a bounce here because I believe the market's going to bounce. So it's a risk asset. But keep in mind that from the moment I went into it, what I said, as soon as the momentum dies, I'm gone. Because that's all in my view, that's all it had for it because I don't see any, any intrinsic value. I don't see any use case for it. And I'm also skeptical that, not that it would matter, frankly, that Trump gets in his reserve currency because it's the opposite of reserve currency.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, let's talk about some other areas before we take our first break that we focused on very heavily yesterday. Either shaken up by the tariffs or growth slowdown or both, for that matter. Banks. So we've had a nice turn in some of these names. At least we did as we came on the air today. As I'm having a look, we can see the big banks. Yeah, some of them are higher. It's still mixed. JPM and Citi are down. Bank of America is down, Goldman's up, Morgan Stanley is up. Chubb got upgraded the Insurance space today to buy from hold target to 323. That's at HSBC. You also have a lot of exposure, Joe Goldman and jpm. So what about the banks here?

[Joe Terranova]

Look, I think the banks in particular the money center banks, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, you could get Morgan Stanley on a little bit more of a sell off. I think that's an opportunity. That's what I would focus on. You mentioned Chubb. The insurance industry is right now the leadership in the financial sector and it's been that way now for the better part of the last 18 months. Chubb, yes, that's an insurance company that we own and a company that, that I like. The favorite name right now in the insurance names is Progressive Corp. That's the one to me that is showing really strong earnings momentum growth and price momentum growth as well.

[Scott Wapner]

All right. Travel. Airlines have been bouncing a little bit. Casinos have been bouncing a bit. Cruises, trip travel related names, booking holdings. What about this space here?

[Carrie Firestone]

Well, I would say on airlines and just some step cruises the fact that oil prices are down is very helpful. So that's been a boost for some of the travel names in terms of just travel and booking. And how much are people traveling? They are still traveling. There was an article today or yesterday about how even in middle class and below people are traveling more than one would expect. They continue to see experiences prices as something they're spending money on rather than goods. We see that in some of the retail numbers and the numbers for all of these travel companies have continued to remain positive.

[Scott Wapner]

Retail gap brutal again today down almost another 7%. Abercrombie, maybe it's moving on that their guidance was below. Target was down again. Walmart and Costco favorite at Evercore over Target. You've got both of those. TJX called a high conviction buy today at ubs. You own that one to the three.

[Joe Terranova]

Names to own clearly Walmart, Costco, TJ X TJX off price clearly benefiting. I wouldn't touch Target right now. I know everyone continues to come on air and talk about the valuation and talk about the opportunity. To me it looks like a particularly troubled stock overall as you look look at consumer discretionary. A recovery in Europe, a recovery in Asia that's going to benefit names like Expedia and like Royal Caribbean. The apparel names that you mentioned, Gap, Abercrombie Fitch. No touch. No thank you.

[Scott Wapner]

We're going to take a quick break. We come back with more committee moves. Joe has two trades in the best performing sector this year. It is health care. As you probably know by now. Halftime's back right after this.

[Edward Jones]

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[Scott Wapner]

Quoting 30 year old movies? Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days? Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted? If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past. Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide and every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the now it pays to Discover. Learn [e-mail] creditcard Based on the February 2024 Nelson Report, school's in session and.

[Silvana Hanau]

Today'S lesson how you can join a fast growing 71 billion dollar childcare industry with a premium brand that parents trust. As a Goddard School franchisee, you'll benefit from a proven financial model backed by 37 years of industry experience and over 640 preschools nationwide. Plus, we support you with financing assistance, real estate, construction, marketing and operations. Now's the time to grow with us. Visit onagoddardschool.com to learn more. This is not an offer to sell a franchise. Franchises are offered only through a franchise disclosure document and in compliance with applicable laws.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's get to these moves that I mentioned. We do have It's Healthcare Best Performing Group of the Year. So you are completely out of the xbi. Why?

[Joe Terranova]

So I'd like you to do me a favor. Next time I mention that I've gotten into the xb, would you just look at me and say please get out? Because every time I buy the XBI it has not worked over the last three years. I have tried on multiple occasions and it seems as though we continue to have this conversation over and over again where you say oh, you got out of the xbi. Yep, I got out of the xbi. And the reason I got out of the XBI is because it's been lousy. It hasn't worked. It should have worked. And I rotated into another large cap biotech name which would be Amgen Amgen. And the reason I did that is because I want to simplify the Story. I want to have exposure, but let's simplify the story. Let's go with what's working. And I truly believe that Amgen is advancing and ultimately delivering an obesity drug that potentially could challenge Eli Lilly.

[Scott Wapner]

Price target went up today at bank of America. What do you think about Amgen?

[Carrie Firestone]

I like Amgen. I think it's a really good trade. I do. It's a low multiple stock. The tech that you look at the chart, it looks like it's breaking out. It has a yield, it has a staple of good drugs. And Maritide, which is the Glip1 drug, is once a month. They believe they're going to have Phase three data soon. They've got drugs and inflammation. There are some cardiovascular drugs that in Phase three, it's got a nice staple of products that are going to increase over the next five to 10 years, which has been a problem with Amgen because Epogen and Neupogen and some of their regional drugs, you know, and not a lot of growth. So this, I think, is a good time.

[Scott Wapner]

All right. Hey, stop showing off with knowing all the names. Impressive, Crystal. I know, I know. She's allowed to flex. Bristol Myers you like better?

[Carrie Firestone]

Yeah, I like Bristol better. I think they're all doing well. If you look at. At the charts, they all look like they're moving higher here. That's true of a number of the drug sites, not all of them. Bristol's got a number that are quite a few in Phase three that again, are going to replace the drugs coming off. And I don't have to say what they all are, but I've t. But you're right, and. And you know, the same is true Abbott, which has had problems because of some lawsuits that's getting settled, we're moving forward with devices and technology. On the health care side, that I.

[Scott Wapner]

Think is Thermo you're talking about, right?

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah.

[Carrie Firestone]

Abbott and Thermo. Abbott and Thermo. So Thermo has not behaved well. And that's in part because of the vaccine worries. Because if you look at where they get their business, it's much from universities and from clinical trials. And these are all places that are under siege. Perhaps, but the stock's cheap.

[Scott Wapner]

Why don't you own Lilly? I'm just curious.

[Carrie Firestone]

So Lilly is a name that we have for the last two years looked at and said, we want to buy it at this price. And then it didn't get to.

[Scott Wapner]

You just never got your.

[Carrie Firestone]

Yeah, I mean, it's a great stock. I mean, it's something that Lilly or Novo would love to own. But you know, maybe there's a chance right here with Novo.

[Scott Wapner]

You do own. You and Weiss own UnitedHealth. What do you think of this here?

[Steve Weiss]

I like UnitedHealth. Look, we know there's going to be or likely to be some hits to Medicaid, but they more than make it up with the Medicare Advantage, which the administration likes and goes through the whole value based care VBC phenomenon. Government's pushing for everybody to which means docs take on more risk. So I think it's very cheap here. I do think that it's a, it's a safe port and a storm in the market. And very defensive. Now that's really defensive.

[Scott Wapner]

Carry one more resmed. I bring it up because it got upgraded today to a buy. The price Target goes to 44 from 41. That coming at Citi today. They say the valuation is reasonable. They like the EPS growth, the free cash flow. They like the fact that they say there'll be no debt by the end of the fiscal year. You own this name.

[Joe Terranova]

They're a leader in sleep deprivation. Talking about literally 40% of.

[Steve Weiss]

But they don't lead in sleep deprivation. They lead in cpac. They don't get people to sleep last. I'm only here.

[Joe Terranova]

I understand that. But they're, they're the leader in the space. The stock is underperformed.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah.

[Carrie Firestone]

Right.

[Joe Terranova]

Right now to me, Boston Scientific, Eli Lilly, Sinkora. Those are the three names in health care that you want to own.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, let's get the headlines now with Silvana now. Hi, Silvana.

[Silvana Hanau]

Hey, Scott. Good afternoon. The Trump administration has been holding secret talks with Hamas over US Hostages held in Gaza. Sources tell Axios. The meetings also included talks of a broader deal to release all of the remaining hostages and to end the war. This would be the first time the US has directly engaged with Hamas, which was named a terrorist organization in 1997. The White House has yet to comment. Congressman Sylvester Turner died last night just two months after taking office. House Democratic lawmakers told NBC News the first term member from Texas suffered a medical emergency, but his cause of death is still unclear. The former mayor of Houston was elected to Congress in November, filling the seat left vacant by longtime Representative Sheila Jackson Lee, who died of cancer last year. Turner was 70 years old. And just a day after the Trump administration posted a list of 443 federal properties up for potential sale, it changed course. Today, the General Services Administration took down the list, which included some of the government most iconic properties. The GSA has yet to comment on the change, Scott, I'll send it back to you.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. All right, Silvana, thank you so much. Silvana Hanau. Up next, we'll do our calls of the day. One firm says now is the time to buy this struggling sector. And still to come, we'll tell you about some stocks that one firm says offer a safe port in this tariff storm. We're back after this.

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[Silvana Hanau]

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[Scott Wapner]

All right, welcome back as we welcome in our senior markets commentator Mike Santoli here at post 9. So what do you make of this market? We knew that we are and we're going to still be headline driven.

[Mike Santoli]

Yes.

[Scott Wapner]

CNN reporting that the president and Canada's Trudeau spoke today. That was a report that just moved a few moments ago. The market's moving a little bit higher. What should we do with, I mean.

[Mike Santoli]

The market is in this kind of wide, loose range at this point. It can kind of swim around it wherever it wants. 48 hours ago, the S&P was a 5950. Yesterday's high was 5850. We made a low near 5700. Today we're 58. Right on the Button pretty much. And, and it just sort of shows you that lack of conviction and headline fatigue. I think it's kind of like the overstimulated toddler situation. I do think though what you can read in the action is the market craves reassurance about the macro picture. That's why ISM Services got you a little bit of a bid and only a couple of hours before a little bit of a weak ADP payrolls actually had us backing off. So I don't think we have resolution. Everyone knows we're over sold enough to rally. Doesn't always mean it happens on time. It doesn't mean you just have to kind of kiss the oversold levels. You have to maybe whip around there a little bit. But I do think that, you know, a month delay in the auto piece of this, I don't know what it really buys you because you're still sitting there on the hook. And as much as the administration wants to preserve leverage, it means preserving that kind of limbo state for the market.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, maybe the market just assumes, okay, you push off the autos and then you push off something else. So that's why, you know, I think people feel like it's, it's difficult to get too negative.

[Steve Weiss]

Right.

[Mike Santoli]

Or at least not put a lot of money behind an outright for sure you, because again, you're oversold. You went down six and a half percent in trading sessions. In theory, if not that much has changed about the macro, you should be fine. But the market really sees the whole tariff thing as kind of beside the point and yet a potential risk. We just, nobody's going to change earnings estimates yet for it. You have to just wait.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, and ADP obviously was, was pretty ugly, but we'll, we'll get the real number exactly on Friday. All right, I'll see you at three. That's Mike Santoli. Coming up, taking tariff cover six committee stocks that could be safe hideouts according to one firm. We'll tell you what those names are next. All right, welcome back. As we welcome in our senior markets commentator Mike Santoli here at post 9. So what do you make of this market? We knew that we are and we're going to still be headline driven.

[Mike Santoli]

Yes.

[Scott Wapner]

CNN reporting that the President and Canada's Trudeau spoke today. That was a report that just moved a few moments ago. The market's moving a little bit higher. What should we do with, I mean.

[Mike Santoli]

The market is in this kind of wide loose range at this point. It can kind of swim around it wherever it wants. 48 hours ago, the S&P was a 5950. Yesterday's high was 5850. We made a low near 5700. Today we're 58 right on the button pretty much. And it just sort of shows you that lack of conviction and headline fatigue. I think it's kind of like the overstimulated toddler situation. I do think though what you can read in the action is the market craves reassurance about the macro picture. That's why ISM Services got you a little bit of a bid and only a couple of hours before a little bit of a weak ADP payrolls actually had us backing off. So I don't think we have resolution. Everyone knows we're oversold enough to rally. Doesn't always mean it happens on time. It doesn't mean you just have to kind of kiss the oversold levels. You have to maybe whip around there a little bit. But I do think, think that, you know, a month delay in the auto piece of this, I don't know what it really buys you because you're still sitting there on the hook. And as much as the administration wants to preserve leverage, it means preserving that kind of limbo state for the market.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, maybe the market just assumes, okay, you push off the autos and then you push off something else. So that, that's why, you know, I think people feel like it's, it's difficult to get too negative.

[Steve Weiss]

Right.

[Joe Terranova]

Or at least not put a lot.

[Mike Santoli]

Of money behind, behind an outright for sure view because again, you're oversold. You went down six and a half percent in eight trading sessions. In theory, if not that much has changed about the macro, you should be fine. But the market really sees the whole tariff thing as kind of beside the point and yet a potential risk. We just, nobody's going to change earnings estimates yet for it. You have to just wait.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, and ADP obviously was, was pretty ugly. We'll get the real number exactly on Friday. All right, I'll see you at three. That's Mike Santoli. Coming up, taking tariff cover. Six committee stocks that could be safe hideouts according to one firm. We'll tell you what those names are next. All right, welcome back, Wolf. Research today did a stock screen on what they call double beat stocks to offer a safe port in this tariff storm. Now they focus on companies with solid fundamentals and improving earnings outlook. Companies beating on the top and the bottom lines over the past two quarters with positive relative price action around their EPS reports. On our list, Netflix, Steve Weiss, look.

[Steve Weiss]

It'S a great story. You know, we know that Disney plus is picking up some steam, holding on subscribers longer. That's really, it's two horse race. So I still like Netflix. I like the way it acts. Sure, it's given up its highs, but still, it's just a phenomenal story and scarcity in terms of both the company and stock.

[Scott Wapner]

Carrie, your final trade yesterday. Yesterday was Charter Communications. It is on that list.

[Carrie Firestone]

Yeah. Go well. So it's, it's a stock that has underperformed. It's starting now to outperform. It's like a utility. It's a cable company. It's US Based. No foreign exposure there, no tariff problem. And we think the cash flows are beginning to improve nicely. They've been buying shares back and it's a cheap stock.

[Scott Wapner]

Garmin Joe is on that list.

[Joe Terranova]

It's on that list. I'm not necessarily sure that this is one of the names that should be on the list. I agree with most of the other names. Very strong earnings. Reaction to earnings was particularly poor. They got a little bit overvalued and it needs to work off some of that overvaluation.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, Visa, Kerry.

[Carrie Firestone]

Well, people continue to spend. Visa continues to take market share. They're the best in the business. It's been a fantastic stock. It's come down a little bit. This is an opportunity to buy.

[Scott Wapner]

Charles Schwab's on that list. You own that too.

[Carrie Firestone]

Yeah. Also, where interest rates are now, I think is a comfortable place for them. They was a lot of cash, cash sorting. Where people wanted more interest, they got it. Now this company is poised to accelerate its earnings growth over the next few years.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, it's gone green. Cme Joe, for sure.

[Joe Terranova]

Listen, all of the exchanges right now are in a sweet spot given the elevated volatility that we're seeing, the increased volumes that are going through as it relates to trading risk assets. So whether it's the CME Trade Web interactive brokers, all of these names really should work in this environment.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, quick break. Come back with today's top movers. Next, give you a snapshot of this market because we continue to move a little bit higher here. Dow at better than 300 points right now. Nasdaq's up almost 1% as you get a bit of a rebound. Rebound, excuse me. Canada is now confirming that President Trump and Trudeau did speak today. So that may be giving a little bit of a lift to stocks. Along with that earlier report, you could get a push off of the tariffs on the automakers as well. So we'll keep tuned up for any headlines that we continue to get. But the market is obviously reacting in real time to everything today. EOG today, another mover. Joe, what do you think? Price target lowered by several firms today.

[Joe Terranova]

I think that's a smart move on their part. Earnings did little to jumpstart this stock. It's near a 52 week low. The momentum is pretty red.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. Other ones that you should keep an eye on today. Box. Throw up that stock if you would. Campbell's talking a lot about different levels of the consumer spectrum today. Thor Industries was a move lower today on their margin guide. Aerovironment was down today on a big miss as well. Just want to keep you up to date on a bunch of stocks that are on the move. We're back with finals after this.

[Joe Terranova]

Are you following the Halftime Report podcast? What are you waiting for? Look for us in your favorite podcasting app. Follow the Halftime podcast now.

[Steve Weiss]

All right.

[Scott Wapner]

There's the market dow still good for 300. We try and build a little bit on some of those headlines out of Washington today about that conversation that has been now confirmed confirmed between Presidents Trump and Trudeau. So we'll see where all of this develops. 3:00 closing bell. Tom Lee, Adam Parker, Rich Saperstein, Marco Kada. So we got an all star lineup to take you through that final stretch. Let's do some final trades.

[Steve Weiss]

Mr. Weiss, I'm carrying over my final trade for Monday which is Taiwan semi. It's cheap here.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. Carrie Firestone, S and P Global.

[Carrie Firestone]

I think there'll be a lot of refinancing. The stocks haven't heard what the financials but it's attractive.

[Scott Wapner]

You want to make a big market call today like you did yesterday. You're almost right. It looked good. I was ready to give it total credit. I tried to but then we had.

[Carrie Firestone]

That massive reversal and moved 2% and then faded.

[Scott Wapner]

What are we going to finish today?

[Joe Terranova]

Don't do it that then that will.

[Carrie Firestone]

Go higher up a 80 basis points.

[Joe Terranova]

All right.

[Scott Wapner]

All right. Good stuff. Joe T. Baba.

[Joe Terranova]

I think it reaches an all time high.

[Scott Wapner]

All right. I hope to join me on closing bell. We'll see if Kerry's right. Exchanges now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

[Edward Jones]

All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates and and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.comhalftimereportdisclaimer. is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication, and you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn [e-mail].