CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary
Episode: The Tech Rebound and Market Rally 11/24/25
Host: Scott Wapner
Date: November 24, 2025
Main Theme:
A deep-dive on the surprising tech rebound after a volatile week, the market’s ongoing rally, the evolving nature of the AI trade, changing valuations, and key sector rotations as 2025 winds down and investors look ahead to 2026.
Episode Overview
This episode of Halftime Report, hosted by Scott Wapner, features candid debate among top investors Josh Brown, Steve Weiss, and Joe Terranova as they dissect the tech sector’s rally after its worst week in months. The panel explores rotation within mega-cap tech (“Magnificent 7”), the durability of the AI trade, market risk appetite, debt issuance, and the implications for other sectors like healthcare and international equities as the year-end approaches.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
The Tech Rebound & “Magnificent 7” Rotation
- Tech stocks lead a strong market rally following last week’s sharp sell-off, with the NASDAQ up over 2%.
- “It is the NASDAQ that is a ripper today, up two and a third percent...coming off the worst week...since April.”
– Scott Wapner, 01:07
- “It is the NASDAQ that is a ripper today, up two and a third percent...coming off the worst week...since April.”
- Rotation among the “Mag 7” (mega-cap techs) has provided resilience.
- Josh Brown underscores how continued rotation–not uniform strength–among these names powered index gains.
- Momentum and growth carried the year, while low-vol stocks lagged:
“The number one thing you had to get right...was that you could have rotation within the Mag 7... Momentum statistically is number one, up 21% on the year. Growth is up 17…”
– Josh Brown, 02:30
Market Health, Valuation, and Liquidity
-
Bullish long-term views persist, even as some excess gets wrung out.
- Citing Tony Pescarello of Goldman Sachs:
“It’s a bull market and the primary trend remains intact...I’m a believer that liquidity is set to improve.”
– Scott Wapner, 01:43 (quoting Pescarello)
- Citing Tony Pescarello of Goldman Sachs:
-
Weiss argues shakeouts are healthy:
“I think it’s healthy to shake out the late comers to the AI trade, to the tech trade so you can move up in a more reasonable fashion...”
– Steve Weiss, 04:44 -
Caution around overvalued tech names, especially in private markets:
“There’s still some massive overvaluations. Most are in the private market... not in the public market.”
– Steve Weiss, 04:44
Alphabet’s (Google) Surprising Dominance
-
Alphabet (Google) hits another all-time high, significantly outpacing peers post-Gemini 3 launch; now has a larger market cap than Microsoft for the first time in seven years.
"Since Gemini 3 launched last week, [Alphabet] was the only Mag 7 name positive last week... Larry Page, now the world’s second richest person.”
– Scott Wapner, 05:41 -
Alphabet’s diversified business model is credited:
“It’s the confluence of the TPU chips, Gemini 3, Google Cloud... very diversified conglomerate... Now you’ve seen a reversal in sentiment... a rebuilding of position.”
– Joe Terranova, 06:18 -
Narrow leadership within the Mag 7:
“It really is only Nvidia and Alphabet that’s outperforming the S&P so far, year to date.”
– Joe Terranova, 06:18
AI Hype Cycle, Financing, and Corporate Debt
-
Ballooning debt for AI build-outs:
- Since September, $90B in new investment-grade debt issued by Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle.
- Concerns rise about companies using off-balance sheet financing and aggressive accounting (esp. Meta, Oracle).
“Meta and Oracle... are going way further... signing deals, doing things off balance sheet... Now all of a sudden it’s really important to Meta to sign four year leases versus owning this CapEx themselves...”
– Josh Brown, 09:19“Meta did a $27B private debt deal... There’s a sensitivity... people are saying, well maybe historically you have not been the best spenders of capital.”
– Joe Terranova, 13:02 -
Investors now discriminate between “AI dream” and tangible ROI:
“We don’t want the extreme valuation companies... we want the companies here and now that have more reasonable valuations.”
– Joe Terranova, 07:53
Second-tier AI Trades & Semiconductor Surge
- Micron and Broadcom called out as “rippers” due to their close ties to the Google/AI infrastructure build.
- “As Alphabet moves higher, the derivative trade is going to be with Broadcom to a certain extent.”
– Joe Terranova, 15:59 - “Nvidia is in incredible shape. The only flies ... are the same flies there are around Oracle, but to a lesser extent... If OpenAI has a spate of great press... everyone will forget.”
– Josh Brown, 16:29
- “As Alphabet moves higher, the derivative trade is going to be with Broadcom to a certain extent.”
Speculative Tech & Crypto-Linked Stocks Sputter
-
Sharp drawdowns in names like Palantir, Robinhood, Vertiv, and Oclo highlight risk-off moves and liquidity-raising last week.
- “All these names you’re highlighting, you have to think the market mood last week was 'let’s raise liquidity.' ... I don’t think we’re there yet [for stabilization].”
– Joe Terranova, 18:28
- “All these names you’re highlighting, you have to think the market mood last week was 'let’s raise liquidity.' ... I don’t think we’re there yet [for stabilization].”
-
Crypto’s continued slide adds to pain:
“I don’t believe that the sell off in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is over. So I think that challenge is still in front of you.”
– Joe Terranova, 21:41
Year End and 2026 Outlook
-
Major targets discussed: Deutsche Bank sees S&P at 8,000 for 2026.
"The only way you’ll get there... is if you still have the Max 7 or Max 6 cooperate. So they have to move up...”
– Steve Weiss, 23:14 -
Caution on volatility:
“I can’t see 2026 not having more elevated volatility."
– Joe Terranova, 24:06 -
AI’s potential to drive profit margins and labor transformation:
“What’s going to make those profit margins grow is what we’re seeing... all that low-cost labor... not around anymore. That’s going to force adoption of AI much quicker.”
– Steve Weiss, 24:35
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On “Mag 7” Resilience:
“Giving up on any one of those names and then utilizing it as a reason to get out of the max seven has been disastrous for people because that rotation... has been really powerful and it’s kept this market moving up.”
– Josh Brown, 02:30 -
On Alphabet’s Run:
“Google today is 56% above its 200 day moving average. Which means if you’re a new long... you’re buying one of the most extended names in the whole S&P500... Google is now shipping product that people are in a very viral fashion talking about, sharing images of and people are absolutely blown away.”
– Josh Brown, 09:19–10:36 -
On Meta & Oracle Financing:
“Meta and Oracle are in the bucket where, oh wow. They’re not just coming out of pocket from free cash flow, they're going way further... This sounds like stuff that you used to talk about when you thought about investment banks or insurance companies. So it’s a new realm...”
– Josh Brown, 09:19 -
On Palantir/Robinhood Speculation:
“There’s no way you can justify Palantir’s valuation, though. It’s a phenomenal company...”
– Steve Weiss, 19:25
Timestamps of Key Segments
- [01:01] – Introduction, setting the agenda: Tech rebound, market rally context.
- [02:30] – Josh Brown’s view on Mag 7 rotation and factor performance.
- [04:12] – Weiss and Terranova debate market health, sustainability of the tech & AI trade.
- [05:41] – Alphabet’s surge and outperformance.
- [07:31] – Narrow AI trade and investor focus on “here and now” ROI.
- [09:01] – Surge in debt issuance for AI, concerns about financing methods.
- [13:02] – Meta's $27B private debt deal, tech sector debt context.
- [14:14] – OpenAI’s risks and comparison to public tech giants; speculation about AGI winner.
- [15:13] – Micron and Broadcom as secondary AI plays.
- [18:02] – Pullbacks in speculative tech and crypto-linked stocks.
- [23:08] – S&P 8000 target discussed, long-term bull factors.
- [24:35] – Impact of labor/AI adoption on future profit margins.
- [27:37] – Weiss’ trade in Alibaba, China as an AI/cloud leader.
- [31:19] – Carvana upgraded, skepticism despite strong YTD gains.
- [32:16] – Josh Brown’s view on Zoom, potential for enterprise AI momentum.
- [39:15] – ETF Edge: John Davi on global allocations, new market cycle thesis.
- [40:02] – Josh Brown: “Best Stocks” in healthcare–XLV breadth thrust, life sciences picks.
- [44:27] – Breaking: Trump to Beijing visit announcement, possible China–US thaw.
- [46:46] – Mike Santoli: Market’s technical health, breadth reversal.
- [49:11] – Final trades: Taiwan Semi, XBI, Apple iPhone.
Sector Spotlights
Healthcare Sector Momentum
-
XLV breadth thrust (every stock up in a day, rare event).
-
Josh Brown highlights life sciences (Mettler Toledo, Thermo Fisher, Agilent) as set up for growth with recurring revenues and AI tailwinds:
“Most of these are recurring revenue businesses… benefiting from an AI tailwind, but they’re not wholly reliant on [data centers].”
– Josh Brown, 40:02 -
Momentum names: Eli Lilly (concerns about valuation), Biogen, Medtronic, McKesson, Idex Labs.
International Equities
- John Davi: New cycle, global outperformance in 2025, especially emerging and developed international markets (+27%), real assets/commodity trades (+54% for gold).
“The market has clearly told you that you need to evolve your portfolio.”
– John Davi, 37:35
China & Alibaba
-
Weiss buys Alibaba, citing confidence regarding VIE structure and Chinese government risks:
“...willing to assume the risk of China for what is ...the leading company in cloud and AI, pure and simple.”
– Steve Weiss, 27:37 -
Rotation out of skepticism:
“Some allocations in that direction. Chinese stocks are up about 30% so far year to date. Having a very strong year. Very, very quietly.”
– Joe Terranova, 29:38
Final Trades
- Steve Weiss: Taiwan Semi – expects continued recovery.
- Joe Terranova: XBI – momentum in biotech, recommends raising stops.
- Josh Brown: Apple – calls for "another iPhone Christmas," odds of a strong quarter.
Tone and Takeaways
- Upbeat but analytical: The mood is optimistic on tech, but with growing scrutiny on valuations, balance sheet risks, and speculative fervor.
- Nuanced: The panel highlights sector and stock-level differences, not just big thematic macro calls.
- Actionable: Specific stocks/sectors are discussed as opportunities: AI tech, life sciences, selected international, and Chinese tech.
For New Listeners
Even if you missed the episode, this recap delivers the key takeaways on the tech rebound, evolving AI investing landscape, sector rotations, and expert commentary around major market forces for year-end 2025.
Quotes Reference Table
| Quote | Speaker | Timestamp | |-------|---------|-----------| | “The number one thing you had to get right...was that you could have rotation within the Mag 7...” | Josh Brown | 02:30 | | “Giving up on any one of those names...has been disastrous...” | Josh Brown | 02:30 | | “It’s healthy to shake out the late comers to the AI trade...” | Steve Weiss | 04:44 | | “Google today is 56% above its 200 day moving average..." | Josh Brown | 09:19 | | “We don’t want the extreme valuation companies... we want... reasonable valuations.” | Joe Terranova | 07:53 | | “All these names...raise liquidity, also in video...wait for the mood to kind of change..." | Joe Terranova | 18:28 | | “Most of these are recurring revenue businesses… benefiting from an AI tailwind...” | Josh Brown | 40:02 | | “...willing to assume the risk of China for what is ...the leading company in cloud and AI...” | Steve Weiss | 27:37 |
End of Summary
