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Halftime Report
The Tech Rebound and Market Rally 11/24/25
00:47:17
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate how to trade the rebound in tech stocks and what it means for the market. Plus, the desk share their latest portfolio moves. And later, Josh Brown spotlights Health Care in his "Best Stocks in the Market." Investment Committee Disclosures
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- [00:00]
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- [01:02]
Scott Wapner
I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thank you very much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner, front and center this hour of the tech rebound following the sector's worst week in more than seven months. We'll debate the road ahead for that group and of course, the markets at large with the investment committee joining me for the hour today, right here, here at post 9, Josh Brown, Joe Terranova and Steve Weiss. Take a look at the markets. We are sharply higher. It is the NASDAQ that is a ripper today, up two and a third percent. We're good for 500 points coming off the worst week, as we said for that group since April. Bitcoin had a rough week. Risk came out of the market. As you know. I think the big question we all want to know, where does this leave us now? Thanksgiving approaches. Not that much time left to go in the year. I go back to what Tony Pescarello of Goldman Sachs said last Friday, pre open. He surveyed the landscape. He looked at the volatility and said it had some elements of capitulation. But he hasn't changed his overall bullish view. Quote It's a bull market and the primary trend remains in intact primary uptrend. Quote I'm a believer that liquidity is set to improve. The economy should accelerate. The story may not be as pristine as it was, but that interplay is still pretty favorable. Does that match with how you think, Josh, about where we are?
- [02:31]
Josh Brown
I think yeah, I think it's a good take. I think the number one thing that you had to get right year was that you could have rotation within the Max 7 and that that would be enough from an index level to continue to propel us higher. And then the number two thing that you had to get right was that momentum would remain the most powerful of all the factors. And just look, year to date, momentum statistically is number one, up 21% on the year. Growth is up 17, quality up 9.6. Value up 9.5. Shareholder yield up 9.5. If you had an overweight toward multiple of those factors or any one in particular, you've had a great year. Hasn't been necessarily in a straight line, but overall that's what kept me on the right side of the market low. Vol is the worst performer of that group. Shareholder yield is the worst performer that group. So like you do have a lot of dispersion and I think within that Mag 7 rotation the most interesting thing to say is it's been very difficult to not be in that trade. Even if at any given time one or two of those names have been giving you trouble. There was a moment this year, Judge, where Tesla was just like a complete disaster. Apple had a moment where everyone was giving up on it. Amazon has had some really bad post earnings reactions. Obviously the saga with Alphabet has just been incredible, which I know we'll get to in a second. But giving up on any one of those names and then utilizing it as a reason to get out of the max seven has been disastrous for people because that rotation from one to the next to the next, it's been really powerful and it's kept this market moving up.
- [04:13]
Scott Wapner
Weiss, we shook some things out undeniably last week. Okay, but back to what Pascarello saying, do you agree? Are we still intact and even though we're not as pristine pristine as we once were, that I'm using words that he used in his note, we're still pretty favorable. And if you look at the overall backdrop, you've got obviously the Capex spend, you have a pretty good economy which is going to, you know, many think accelerate into next year. And you got the Fed which is going to be more engaged obviously on the cutting cycle. What do you think?
- [04:44]
Steve Weiss
Yeah, no, I think we are intact. I can't tell what the market's going to do depending upon what the Fed does. That's a short term consideration. Overall, we do see the Economy strengthening in some parts. Let's keep in mind we still can see the consumer weakening. Yeah, so it's, you know, it's a two part economy now. You've got the largest spending that continues to be intact and driving the economy. So I think, I think we're good. And, and I also think, and this is a term I really dislike, I think it's healthy to shake out the late comers to the AI trade, to the tech trade and so you can move up in a more reasonable fashion. We did get overvalued unquestionably, but we're in good shape now. So I keep going, you know, with the, with the make cap tech. I think the trade is far from dead, but there's still some massive overvaluations. Most are in the private market, by the way, not in the public market.
- [05:41]
Scott Wapner
Joe. So speaking of tech, I mean, Alphabet has been the best story of the last few months in terms of this, this trade. It's defied a lot of expectations. It hits another record high today. It's up 11% alone. Since Gemini 3 launched last week, it was the only MAG7 name positive. Last week it's had a larger market cap than Microsoft for the first time in seven years. That tells a lot. And if you need more, co founder Larry Page, he's now the world's second richest person passing Larry Ellison. So that's been a pretty good story and that's one of the stocks that you own.
- [06:18]
Joe Terranova
So I think what's happening is that we're looking at the AI trade and we're trying to understand who is going to deliver the quickest on the roi. And I think in the case of Alphabet, they're giving you the evidence that they might just be that stock that does it for you. Gemini 3 seems to be something that's certainly changing the story dramatically. I think in addition to that, it's the TPU chips that are obviously being utilized in the AI infrastructure. So it's the confluence of the TPU chips, Gemini 3, Google Cloud, and then you go beyond that. You look at Android, you look at Waymo, and you look at YouTube and you see this very diversified conglomerate that came into the year with significant questions surrounding an antitrust ruling and the fact that Chat GPT was going to cannibalize search. Now you've seen a reversal in that sentiment, a rebuilding of position. And to your point, when you look at the Max 7, it really is only in video and Alphabet that's outperforming the S and P so far, year to date. So we're seeing kind of this narrowness in the max seven in the opportunity.
- [07:32]
Scott Wapner
Becoming more, as Citi says, idiosyncratic. Right. Which they think continues into the new year in that what was a lump, everybody together trade. It moved as this monolith is not doing that anymore. Because as you look at all these companies, yes, they have the circular deals, they're reliant on one another in some respects, but they're competing against each other too.
- [07:52]
Steve Weiss
Yeah.
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Joe Terranova
So I think if I could finish my thought, two things are important as you move forward, what the ROI is going to be on the AI trade. And then I also think what we've learned over the last three weeks is that valuations and tech do matter. And I think the market is going to be a little more judicious saying okay, we don't want the extreme valuation companies where somewhere down the line the dream is that they'll grow into the multiple. We want the companies here and now that have more reasonable valuations.
- [08:22]
Scott Wapner
What about the idea though too that you, you talk about, you know, we're thinking about the companies that are going to be able to see the best and soonest return on their investment. You also don't I think want to see too many of these companies go too far out on the risk curve to try and get there. You look at Oracle for example, its CBS have spiked. You have people who are worried about the debt, the balance sheet people see the debt as more risky. 5 year cds spiking to the highest level since October of 22. It plays right into that. The Wall Street Journal today says the flood of AI bonds as pressure to the markets. Markets are paying attention to that.
- [09:02]
Josh Brown
Okay, since 90 billion in new debt.
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Scott Wapner
Okay, since since the start of September, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle have issued nearly 90 billion of invested investment grade bonds, more than they had sold over the previous almost four years. Right. Almost previous 40 months.
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Josh Brown
Joe nailed it. Where the market has drawn some lines. And so Metta and Oracle are in one bucket and their stock prices are acting accordingly in recent weeks. Metta and Oracle are in the bucket where, oh wow. They're not just coming out of pocket from free cash flow, they're going way further. They're signing deals, they're doing things off balance sheet. We've never really talked about that with technology giants before. That's always been a financial industry thing. Now all of a sudden it's really important to Meta to sign four year leases versus owning this, this capex themselves. But then there's this convoluted thing where they're signing a contract, they can't walk away. So even though it's a four year lease and it's off balance sheet, actually it's a long term liability because blank, like those conversations. This sounds like stuff that you used to talk about when you thought about investment banks or insurance companies. So it's a new realm and the market has decided, all right, these stocks are not going to get the same multiple that they used to. Google is the opposite. This is stock, the fifth highest of all the S and P components, above its 200 day moving average. I don't know if you know this. Google today is 56% above its 200 day moving average. Which means if you're a new long or adding to a position, pulling a trigger into Google right now you're buying one of the most extended names in the whole s and P500. Think about how far that's come from. Oh my God, Google is dead. They shipped the product this weekend. Nano Banana, it took off like almost nothing we've ever seen from Google. In terms of the virality of the product, similar to what we saw with Sora about a month ago, Google is now shipping product that people are in a very viral fashion talking about, sharing images of and people are absolutely blown away by the product itself. So it's a story of a reasonably cheap stock relative to the others with expectations of dire outcomes, all of a sudden exciting people with product and separating itself from the companies that are doing bizarre financing schemes just to get Capex built.
- [11:23]
Steve Weiss
You know, I'm going to, I agree with a lot of what you said, but in terms of comparing Meta to Oracle, I think that's off base.
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Josh Brown
Oracle is share prices.
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Steve Weiss
Share price. Share prices, you're right.
- [11:33]
Joe Terranova
Share price, that's always talking about.
- [11:35]
Steve Weiss
Right, right. In terms of though, the fundamentals of Metta and their ability to translate AI into revenues, I'd say that they're one of the most apt to do that the most quickly and we see that virtually every day with them. I, you know, I also think part of the issue is that technology investors, particularly mega cap investors, just are unfamiliar with off balance sheet financing, unfamiliar with debt. We hear $90 billion debt raised, you know, in a short period of time. When you take a look at the percentage of that, of their market cap, of their balance sheets, it's nothing. So it's a pimple. So basically you've got, you've got an investing class that's not generally used to seeing financial enhancements. I'm not going to say engineering Enhance.
- [12:21]
Scott Wapner
Well, I mean, okay, so the Wall Street Journal today has another piece and the headline is AI meets aggressive accounting at Meta's gigantic new data center. Metta wants other people's money to pay for the data center. Those investors want to know Metta ultimately has their backs. But at the same time, Metta wants to keep its near pristine credit rating and doesn't want the extra assets and debt on its book.
- [12:41]
Steve Weiss
Right, and let's just, let me, just let me finish one thought. So the idea of locking in four year commitments for data centers is that energy is increasingly tougher and tougher so you need to lock it in so you can get the energy that you need, get that committed. Because if you don't have that, you're not going to get the energy commitment. So it's actually very smart what they're doing.
- [13:02]
Joe Terranova
So you had 150 billion in technology issuance in 2021. You're blowing past that so far this year you're going to exceed 200 billion. In the case of Meta, they did a $27 billion private debt deal. Now understand right now there's a lot of excitement in private markets for private infrastructure. Private capital wants in on the build out of data centers. There's also a sensitivity in the case of matter to where a lot of people are saying, well maybe historically you have not been the best spenders of capital. And I think there's that sensitivity that exists. I also think there's sensitivity going back to 1999 and the innovation that was built on debt and the market is saying in the case of Oracle and others, no, we do not want to see that. So I think you're going to continue to see a lot of Tech Insurance in 2026. I think the thing you want to watch out for though is a lot of private debt deals. There's talk that you might see one from Oracle that would be somewhat trouble which you equity price of our, you.
- [14:00]
Scott Wapner
Own Oracle in your ETF can't do anything about. Exactly. Would you, would you buy it in.
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Josh Brown
Your personal momentum here, that stock?
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Scott Wapner
Would you buy it personally?
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Joe Terranova
No, no, I've said that as we've.
- [14:12]
Scott Wapner
Gone all the way down, the stock keeps going down.
- [14:15]
Joe Terranova
And here's one other thing that I think everyone really needs to think about. If Gemini 3 is as credible, as strong, as effective as we believe it is, what does that mean for OpenAI and all the deals and all the expectations that Open Air is the one that's going to deliver AGI and going to deliver the best products? What if in fact, maybe it's one of the existing publicly traded max sevens that might ultimately beat them to that race.
- [14:43]
Josh Brown
Well, I asked the question. If Open Air is a publicly traded company right now, it'd be a lot lower. It's not in a tie. It doesn't look like. It does not look like Alphabet. We agree on that.
- [14:52]
Joe Terranova
No, it's. So there was talk it was a maybe a trillion dollar valuation. I don't see that anymore. 500 billion we'll figure out. But I think, I do think you have to think about what the effect is on valuing that company. If you're seeing the success that you're seeing with.
- [15:06]
Scott Wapner
Would you buy a core weave or a Nebulous?
- [15:09]
Steve Weiss
I would not buy core. We've. I never like core weave, like runs a bit.
- [15:13]
Scott Wapner
But Microns a ripper. Today reiterated top picket Morgan Stanley the target to 338from325 because they don't think that the sell off recently has been warranted at all.
- [15:25]
Joe Terranova
So Nvidia Blackwell needs high bandwidth memory and that's what Micron actually is, is delivering. The supply demand imbalance sets up well for Micron moving into 2026. And again, just like AMD, Micron was late to the story. So you're talking about let's build the positions at a much later calendar point than a lot of the other AI names.
- [15:47]
Scott Wapner
Broadcom's a ripper today too, by the way. Its Target goes to 535 from 400 and that's reiterated by it HSBC. You want to give me something on that? Now it's 9%. It was seven earlier.
- [15:59]
Joe Terranova
They're a Google partner on the TPU chips and that's the reason why they're moving significantly higher. So as Alphabet moves higher, the derivative trade is going to be with Broadcom to a certain extent. Apple can also be brought into that combination. They have a little bit of a partnership with Gemini. And then there's two other names, Celestica and Lumentum. I wouldn't buy either of them, but they participate in that Alphabet infrastructure doesn't.
- [16:27]
Scott Wapner
Really fit into this story right now.
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Josh Brown
I think the stock goes back above 200 and stays. I understand the reasons why it had the reaction that it did to the last earnings report. If they had never had an earnings report before that you had seen and you only saw that earnings report, you would say, oh my God, this stock must be up 40% in the after hours. The simple fact is it's Michael Jordan in 1997 competing with his own highlight reel from 1996, you run out of superlatives at a certain point. Nvidia is incredible shape. The only flies on the story are the same flies there are around Oracle, but to a lesser extent. Are all these spending commitments being announced actually, is there actually going to be follow through? That narrative could change on a dime. If OpenAI has a spate of great press, maybe they launch something new that people get excited about. Maybe they recommit to whatever they're doing with Nvidia, everyone will forget. The stock will go up 15 points if they get a headline out of Washington about H200 sales in China. Again, whatever gray clouds are hanging over the stock, they go away in a second.
- [17:34]
Scott Wapner
Well, there is a headline out there that the, the administration is floating the idea, floating it of selling it.
- [17:40]
Josh Brown
So let's say, let's say it, let's say it happens. I'm just, I'm making the point that the stock is like one or two good news cycle days away from getting back above 200. We've seen it there before. Very briefly, I think it will go and I think the next time it goes it's probably going to be one of those assets where people are like, I can't risk this thing running up to 250 without me and the bull take the upper hand again.
- [18:03]
Scott Wapner
What do I do with some of these momentum high beta names like Palantir down 19% month to date. Applovin's down 14. Vertiv's down 11.5%. Oclo is down 32%. Strategy obviously tied directly to the bitcoin story which has crashed in its own right. That's down 36% month to date. Joe.
- [18:28]
Joe Terranova
Well, I mean I've spoken about strategy and how frustrated and disappointed I am that we maintain that position. There's nothing I could do about it. Not happy about it. In the case of Palantir, 200 day moving average is 139. Maybe that's your level of support. Some people are saying it looks like it bottomed on Friday. I'm not necessarily sure whether that's the case or not, but I think all of these names that you're highlighting, you have to think the market mood last week was let's raise liquidity. And a lot of these names are where you could source liquidity, also in video, being a classic example of that. And you just have to wait for the mood to kind of change where the market starts saying we want that liquidity. And at that point I think you could see some stabilization. These names I don't think we're there yet.
- [19:09]
Scott Wapner
What about. Robinhood's down 23 this month. You own that? Arista's down A lot of crypto in.
- [19:15]
Josh Brown
That, in that Robinhood name it's tethered.
- [19:17]
Joe Terranova
To, you know, where crypto ultimately is going to be going. Look, the entire list. I'm not excited about anyone right now taking a stand and saying, I'm going to buy these in the frame of.
- [19:26]
Steve Weiss
Reference is important here. Perspective. Those companies, Palantir, Robinhood and some of the others you mentioned were all, I think, very much overvalued. So the question is, are they going to get back to that level of being overvalued? I don't think so. I sort of hope not, because then we'll run the cycle all over again with the major drawdown. But I think that they do increase in value over time when there's a reason for them to increase and it's not just multiple expansion and because everybody wants to be in the same name. There's no way you can justify balance at Palantir's valuation, though. It's a phenomenal company, I think.
- [20:00]
Josh Brown
I think, you know, lump them together is the first step. It's one thing to say like, all right, look at these high flyers. They all went up 3, 400% this year and now they're all in 20% pullbacks and want to tell a bigger story about risk off. And you can, but then the question of, like, what do you buy them? It's not of them. No, it's so Robin Hood, $100 billion market cap, 46 times next year's earnings. Arguably, this is an earnings beat machine and they'll probably do way better than what the street thinks. If you get a recovery in Bitcoin, the Stock goes up 20 points, like overnight, and it has no fundamental change necessary. It just. That's just how it trades. That's what happens. Palantir, they're going to keep beating earnings. I'm not saying it's 380 times earnings that makes it a buy, but they will continue to deliver upside surprises. I don't know. Like, those names to me feel different than strategy, which is its own planet. I just don't see them as the same.
- [21:00]
Joe Terranova
The challenge for a lot of these names is the attention of, of momentum players in the market is pointed towards a sector that we're going to talk about later in the show. And that sector is the leading momentum sector right now on a 5 day, 30 day and 45 basis. So when you have that the names that you're talking about, you're not going to have the excitement that was represented previously to step in and stabilize.
- [21:23]
Scott Wapner
Well, if there's a, if there's more scrutiny over speculative fervor in the market market, then the names that we were talking about represented in many respects by Bitcoin itself. If that deflates, then a lot of these other names as you're talking about are going to be directly tied to that.
- [21:41]
Joe Terranova
And I don't believe that the sell off in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is over. So I think that challenge is still in front of you.
- [21:46]
Scott Wapner
You agree with that?
- [21:48]
Josh Brown
Yeah. There are other areas of the market that are now momentum and if, if it continues. I agree with Joe, like, that's where managers are going to look and say, all right, we're here, it's November 24th. I have X number of days to do whatever I'm going to do. Assuming I'm going to do something into year end, do I go with what's working now or do I try to catch a stock that looks like a falling knife? And I do think people are going to look elsewhere. They'll look at energy, look at refineries, to look at a lot of areas in health care, and they'll look at financials and they'll find better ideas than, I don't know, did we just see the last 20 points down in strategy or is there another 20 points? That's just a harder trade.
- [22:26]
Scott Wapner
So let's bring it full circle then, to where we started this, this block 21 and a half minutes ago on the Pascarello perspective, you want to call it that opens his aperture right. Wider to try and see more of the picture. Avoids a little bit of the noise near term, which is obviously shaken some people up. Deutsche Bank 26, 20, 26, target their outlook 8,000 for the S and P. What do we think about that? I mean, that's, you know, if you're at. Where you at now in the S and p set. Well, 60, 60, 700, 8,000, discretionary investor positioning as a source of potential market upside. We see equities continuing to benefit from the cross asset inflows.
- [23:09]
John Davi
Boom.
- [23:09]
Scott Wapner
It's a lot of the same reasons that Pascarello remains bullish in the, in the big picture is.
- [23:15]
Steve Weiss
Yeah, that. And the only, the only way you will get there, given their weighting in the S and P, is if you still have the Max 7 or Max 6, whatever you want to pare down to cooperate. So they have to move up that's just the numbers, that's just the math on it. But I think they will and I think they will recover because I still think it's the best place to be. Now there are other names, of course, and I like the Caterpillar, for example, and others that will benefit from again, the AI. So it's all going back to AI. And that's a risky strategy, but nonetheless I think it's one that'll work if.
- [23:50]
Joe Terranova
We do get to that target. And I'm not a big believer in price targets, but it's a general directional. So let's talk about that directionally. I don't think it comes with the same type of benign volatility that we've seen in the last several years. 23, 24.
- [24:06]
Scott Wapner
Yes.
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Joe Terranova
In, in April we had that spike related to the tariffs, but we quickly smoothed that over. I can't see 26 not having more elevated volatility.
- [24:15]
Josh Brown
Profit margin, profit margins growing.
- [24:17]
Steve Weiss
Yeah.
- [24:18]
Josh Brown
Talked to Warren Pies the other day. I know he's on the 3 o' clock show that you do a lot. Warren broke it down very simply. Try to find a historical market where profit margins were growing, earnings were growing and all of a sudden PE multiples contracted. You can't. And what doesn't happen.
- [24:35]
Steve Weiss
Right. And what's going to make those profit margins grow is what we're seeing with the immigration change where all that low cost labor, a lot of it's not around anymore. So that's going to force adoption of AI much quicker. And we're all seeing in every company we're involved in or that we work at. So I think that's a positive thing. But we've got to get inflation taken care of and that's far from certain tickets. You get a new Fed chair then that could drive inflation and that will destroy the market for sure.
- [25:06]
Joe Terranova
I thought we're going to get out of the conversation with actually not mentioning the Federal Reserve and Fed policy.
- [25:10]
Josh Brown
Almost 12, 2356.
- [25:12]
Steve Weiss
I wait till last minute. Almost.
- [25:14]
Josh Brown
We almost did.
- [25:14]
Scott Wapner
We hit it. We hit it at the end. We'll take a break. We have calls of the day coming up. And Josh Brown's best stocks in the market list. The spotlight shining bright on yet another name and group. We'll discuss ahead.
- [25:32]
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- [26:02]
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- [27:18]
Ripple Podcast Host
Welcome back.
- [27:18]
Scott Wapner
Get to Calls of the Day in a moment, but we forgot to get to a move of yours. Weiss. That's my bad. In all that AI talk, we did not mention Alibaba today. Take a look at the stock because they had a good uptake on their on their new their new model, their new AI model. You bought the stock?
- [27:38]
Steve Weiss
I did.
- [27:39]
Scott Wapner
This has to be for the proverbial just for a trade well or no.
- [27:43]
Steve Weiss
So so my concerns with China have been number one that they would demand the delisting of the variable interest entities that really are in Cayman and you only own a profit stream or revenue stream. You don't own any assets when you own those ADRs. That's never come up in any conversation. So I think I've got the all clear of it on that. Then of course course the invasion of Taiwan, which is the biggest risk to that but also a huge risk to the market and a huge risk to Taiwan. Semi Putting that aside, I'm willing to assume the risk of China for what is going to be and is right now the leading company in cloud and AI, pure and simple.
- [28:24]
Scott Wapner
Are you a longer term player here or no?
- [28:26]
Steve Weiss
I could be. I could be. I'm not buying with the intent to take 20% and then sell it.
- [28:31]
Scott Wapner
You should have just bought it when your guy bought it himself.
- [28:34]
Steve Weiss
I did buy it and there I did trade it and Dave's doubled in it and I haven't. So I made him buy it.
- [28:40]
Scott Wapner
He didn't even get you exactly right.
- [28:43]
Steve Weiss
That's why he'll be in the Panthers owner box tonight. And I could be if I want to fly myself there to San Fran, but of course I'm not.
- [28:52]
Scott Wapner
Maybe he would have flown you there if you didn't get out of the trade.
- [28:55]
Steve Weiss
No, I haven't heard his trade. Trust me, nobody saying, well, Steve's not in Dave, so I can't go with you. But in any event, the stock's very reasonably priced and I just think from here that it should be going straight up. China problems aside, what do you think?
- [29:09]
Scott Wapner
Here I stopped for a K Web guy.
- [29:12]
Josh Brown
I mean, yeah, I stopped following Alibaba individually, but what Steve is explaining makes a lot of sense. The cloud over this stock and many others has been something to do with the structure for U.S. investors. That has nothing to with do to do with the fundamentals of the business, which are obviously on fire. Whatever we think is good about AI in the US I promise you in China, they're every bit as aggressively going after the opportunity. And of course this is going to be one of the names that wins.
- [29:36]
Steve Weiss
Even more so government funding for it.
- [29:39]
Joe Terranova
I like the way Steve explained that. I also think there's a rotation that's going on where the skepticism of the last several years that you can invest in stocks in Asia and specifically in China. China will actually work for you. And you're beginning to see some, some allocations in that direction. Chinese stocks are up about 30% so far year to date. Having a very strong year. Very, very quietly.
- [30:01]
Scott Wapner
I mean, not that quietly. If you would have listened as well.
- [30:05]
Joe Terranova
When I say quietly, I don't think we talk about it, you know, so.
- [30:08]
Josh Brown
Right. We used to have a segment for Chinese stocks. Every show in 2014 of idiosyncratic Josh.
- [30:15]
Scott Wapner
Would would buy the K Web to express a view there. Yeah, I don't know if you're running out and buying the K Web. You're looking for individual stories. If you're going to do anything there.
- [30:23]
Josh Brown
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [30:23]
Steve Weiss
I mean, I, I, I believe strongly I'll outperform with Alibaba than with K Web because I'm concentrating on this.
- [30:30]
Scott Wapner
I should have bought the DTWeb.
- [30:32]
Josh Brown
K Web won't work. If Alibaba doesn't work, K Web won't work.
- [30:35]
Joe Terranova
So I got that.
- [30:36]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, you got that. You've been trapped in the DTWeb for a long time.
- [30:40]
Steve Weiss
Yes, I have.
- [30:40]
Scott Wapner
All right, let's do. Let's do.
- [30:42]
Joe Terranova
Gladly. Speaking.
- [30:42]
Scott Wapner
Yes. Anybody in the web is feeling good. Let's talk some calls of the day. Carvana upgraded to outperform at Wedbush target to 400 Joe.
- [30:53]
Joe Terranova
So this is a recent addition to the ETF. And understand whenever something goes in recently, I treat it as being guilty until you prove it innocent, you have to really be in the ETF for a significant amount of time. For me to get excited. Carvana has to prove itself to me. Amazon Autos is out there. They did a deal with Ford, they did a deal with Hertz. They're gaining momentum. Carmax not looking so good. So I'm skeptical on this one.
- [31:19]
Scott Wapner
What's the stock? Pull it out guys, please.
- [31:22]
Joe Terranova
Stock is up 63% year to date. It's having a really strong year.
- [31:25]
Josh Brown
Struggling recently though with that 200 day it's. I mean credit conditions looks like a coin toss. I'd almost rather buy it higher. Like. Like with some confirmation that the rally is going to resume.
- [31:38]
Joe Terranova
It's a little iffy and that's where it proves itself.
- [31:41]
Scott Wapner
What about Cummins? Upgraded to a buy target to 628from 522and that's at Truest at 628@486Joe.
- [31:49]
Joe Terranova
So that's one that we've owned since July of 2024. So I have strong affection for it. I really love this position. It's at an all time high. The expectations the commercial vehicle business. Business is at trough and that's remarkable. It shows the resiliency of this company because on the other hand it's been the power business and the data center build out. That's been the real growth story here since we've owned it in July of.
- [32:12]
Scott Wapner
24 a Zoom reports after the bell today. Your final trade from Friday, right?
- [32:16]
Josh Brown
Yes. And I am clenching appropriately. So what are you laughing at? Doing my Kegels over here. The great thing about the setup in Zoom is that the expectations are non existent. So this is. We're a corporate customer of Zooms. We use their enterprise products including their AI note taker and their AI revenue accelerator and it just. It works great. We're not canceling so we're fans of the product. Revenues only expected to grow 3% year over year. So effectively flat. If they do anything better than that, I think the stock goes higher. It's a $1.21 billion quarterly run rate business without growth. But if they figure out that enterprise business and find growth there that's the thing that's not in the stock at today's valuation. Enterprise Momentum customers my firm and significantly larger obviously is the swing factor. These are do that though. Well we're going to find out together and it may not be this quarter but I think you utilizing their enterprise relationships with the millions of companies that pay them for video and related services inserting that AI note taking service in there using that as a bridge to get more uptake on revenue accelerate ZRA Zoom revenue accelerator like building that way through their existing customer base all of a sudden it may not be this quarter one of these quarters they're going to say enterprise is now clicking it's growing faster than we originally thought and people are going to rewrite the stock. I'm not saying it's a double I'm just saying 79 probably too cheap.
- [33:51]
Joe Terranova
You want to we do bought in January.
- [33:53]
Scott Wapner
We both personally ended the ETF by.
- [33:55]
Josh Brown
The way look at look how many Attempts on on $85 a share eventually and I hope it's I hope it's today eventually it's going to go yeah.
- [34:04]
Joe Terranova
And that's we're long in January in January somewhere around $85. It Josh really nails it. It has to be okay. Have they diversified the business away from video communications and can that boost the growth back into double digit territory?
- [34:20]
Scott Wapner
The headlines with Leslie Picker. Hey Les.
- [34:22]
Commercial Narrator
Hey Scott. Thank you so much. The top military officer in the US Will visit troops in Puerto Rico today as the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Venezuela and its leader, Nicolas Maduro. The Pentagon says General Dan Kane will thank service members ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday and will visit a Navy warship in the region. The US military buildup in the Caribbean includes some 15,000 troops as well as the nation's largest aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford. The United States Postal Service outlined plans to raise shipping prices in 2026. The proposal would hike costs for a number of services, including a 6% increase for priority mail and a nearly 8% increase for ground services. First class stamps would not be affected. The increases still need approval from the Postal Regulatory Commission. And New York City unveiling its updated New Year's Eve ball today. It's covered in more than a 5200 Waterford crystals, nearly twice the amount of its predecessor. Is also slightly larger and has nearly twice twice as many lights. This is the city's ninth New Year's Eve ball since the tradition began in 1907. Only the best for 2026.
- [35:34]
Scott Wapner
All right, Les, thank you. All right, coming up next, we're going global in today's ETF Edge, where you can find the best opportunities outside the U.S. we're back after this.
- [35:47]
Ripple Podcast Host
Your commute, day in and day out, the same old route, but also the perfect time to hear what's new in blockchain and crypto. Level up your commute and join Ripple for conversations with some of the best in the business on how institutions around the globe are being reshaped and revolutionized with blockchain and crypto. From digital asset infrastructure to payments custody and even our stablecoin rlusd. Listen to special commuter editions of Blockstars, the podcast hosted by David Schwartz. It's happening with Ripple.
- [36:17]
AT&T Business Advertiser
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Commercial Narrator
At Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more@capella.edu. We're back on Halftime Report. I'm Contessa Brewer with today's ETF Edge. Good to see you. Many ETF investors think the Fed's December rate meeting is the final hurdle to clear in 2025 before moving on to 2026. But our next guest believes in an out of consensus view that we're already in a new market cycle. Joining me now is John Davi, CIO at Astoria Portfolio Advisors. John, good to see you. Why do you think we've already moved on? This is a new cycle.
- [37:35]
John Davi
For the last 25 years, whenever I have seen the Fed cut interest rates, that always signified a new market cycle. The Fed cut four times last year. They've cut a couple times this year. And then if you just look at actually what has worked this year, you see emerging markets up 27%, developed international markets up 27%, asset classes that benefit from the debasement trade, whether it's gold. We run a strategy PPI, it's a real assets fund. Gold is up 54%. Our PPI ETF is up 24%. And if I just look at US sectors, banks, they benefit from steeper curves, higher interest rates, they're up 19, XLI is up 17. All these different sectors and asset classes have significantly outperformed the S&P 500. So I think the market has clearly told you that you need to evolve your portfolio.
- [38:27]
Commercial Narrator
What do you think that we, how should investors position portfolios now, especially if they're late to the party?
- [38:34]
John Davi
I don't think we're late because for last five years it's been about one trade mag seven large cap tech and growth. Nobody wanted to buy. You know, emerging markets, developed international markets, real assets and you know, we've argued for the last four years that we're going to be living in a structurally higher inflation world. We're still 50% above the Fed's inflation target. To get us back down to 2%, Fed would have to hike rates. They're doing the opposite. And again whenever the Fed cuts rate they usually sends the market into a new, you know, cycle.
- [39:04]
Commercial Narrator
We're just getting started. John, thank you for that. We're going to continue the conversation over at ETF edge.cnbc.com and John will be joined by so Sophia Massey, the CEO of Lion's Shares. Scott, I'll send that back to you.
- [39:15]
Scott Wapner
All right, thank you Contestant Brewer. Still ahead, health care just did something it hasn't done since 1998. Tell you what that is and how Josh Brown's playing it. His best stocks in the market is up next. All right, let's talk about Josh Brown's best stocks in the market. Healthcare just did something we said it hadn't done since 98. Yeah, 100% of the XLV sector stocks advanced on Friday. Yeah, it's happened only 34 other days going back to the inception of it since 98.
- [40:03]
Josh Brown
Yeah, everything hear that term probably from me. Bread thrust like that's what that is basically. But on a sector basis it just tells you the level of institutional accumulation coming in. 21% of all the components in the XLV made a 52 week high on Friday. They are buying these names and there's a reason you get, you get this really interesting grouping of sub industry and I'm going to talk about one of them right now. The life sciences tools and services names are set up beautifully both this year and next year from an earnings growth perspective. Most of these are recurring revenue businesses which is Wall street wants and they're benefiting from an AI tailwind, but they're not wholly reliant on things like, I don't know, data centers for example. So for growth investors that rode these traditional names up this year, now they want to switch, they want to buy cheaper stocks that also have that kind of recurring revenue profile. These are the names Mettler Toledo MTD stock broke to a fresh 52 week high. We're showing you 50 and 200 day here to make the point that these are down uptrends that have been going on for most of the year. And when you saw that golden cross happen earlier in the summer, that told you something interesting was brewing and then you got that follow through here. So we like that name. Citigroup's target is 1700. That would be 20% higher. Thermo Fisher is the biggest name in the group. 220 billion dollar market cap. This one is not quite there yet, as you can see, not quite over the February high from earlier this year. But you have a golden cross and you have all the ingredients for a potential breakout. I feel pretty confident that'll happen. Everybody's watching those March, April high. When it gets through, there's no sellers, it's an entirely different story. The last one is Agilent. Agilent spun out of Hewlett Packard 26 years ago. Ticker symbol A looks exactly like Mettler toledo. It's a 42 billion dollar market cap right in the sweet spot of that next tier of large cap stock. Riding the 50 day beautifully. Look at it. Every challenge on the 50 day the buyers came in exactly where they were to supposed, supposed to, almost like it was a script. Meanwhile you've got a vacuum. If it breaks this level 140, you have to go back to 2021. It was at 180. You really have 40 points with no natural resistance. So I'm watching this one for a breakout as well. Mettler Toledo is all the way through. The Agilent is next followed by Thermo Fisher. They're buying these names because they like the business, they like the outlook, they're not terribly expensive and it's time for some new blood in people's portfolios.
- [42:44]
Scott Wapner
We'll ask why. He just gave you a couple of great trades.
- [42:49]
Steve Weiss
He did. And I've been on the sidelines. Look, I think it's still go. I mean in an accommodative interest rate environment, health care is going to work, particularly biotech. And as I mentioned last week, until you see supply in IPOs or secondaries, there's nothing really to eat that.
- [43:04]
Scott Wapner
Look at that move from end of beginning of fall now. Unbelievable. Joe. We've got a lot of exposure, strongest momentum.
- [43:10]
Joe Terranova
5:30, 40 day time frame. I absolutely have a lot of exposure here today. 52 week highs. Eli Lilly, Biogen, Medtronic, McKesson. So money's coming in. Idex Labs, which we own in Jersey.
- [43:25]
Steve Weiss
Is a great story.
- [43:26]
Scott Wapner
Why don't you own Lilly? Why doesn't anybody own Lily here?
- [43:28]
Joe Terranova
We did own Lilly. I know when we were shaken out of Lily.
- [43:32]
Steve Weiss
Just too expensive. I mean you just don't pay that for a drug company. If you double the historical valuation, you're still way, way above where it should be. So I just can't do that. And there's more competition coming on to onto the market for their primary drug. I just can't see.
- [43:47]
Josh Brown
I think it's, I think Lilly is more important symbolically. This is the first health care company to reach a trillion dollar market cap. The fact that that's possible I think is leading to the momentum in the rest of the sector. People are waking up and saying wait a minute, there are growth companies in this group that are not priced like microchip companies. They're not priced like semis and they have that potential to do what Lilly just did. You look at the names on my list that we've done segments on all year. Judge Alder Lam, Gilead Amgen, Abbvie. They all look great.
- [44:19]
Scott Wapner
I've got some breaking breaking news I want to get to Eamon Javers. It's regarding the White House and I've seen these headlines move. Tell us, tell our viewers what they are. Eamon.
- [44:28]
Eamon Javers
Yes, Scott, President Trump says he's going to Beijing in April. This coming in a social media post just a couple of moments ago, the president giving a readout of his call with Xi Jinping of China earlier today. We saw both sides confirm the call this morning. But now President Trump is saying some of the details of what they discussed. He says they discussed soybeans, American farmers. And he also says President Xi invited me to visit Beijing in April, which I accepted and I reciprocated, where he will be my guest for a state visit in the US later in the year. So Xi Jinping coming to the United States in 2026, says the President. He says we agreed that it is important that we communicate often, which I look forward to doing. He says the relationship between the United States and China is a solid one. No mention in this readout. So Scott, of the issues in Ukraine or Taiwan which the Chinese readout earlier today did refer to, said both areas had been discussed by the two leaders. So we'll see if the White House gives us any further indication this afternoon of what it was that they talked about in Ukraine, particularly in light of the weekend of diplomacy in Geneva as the United States tries to hammer out an agreement that can be acceptable to both Ukraine and and Russia to end that war there.
- [45:42]
Scott Wapner
Market's going to like any bit of positive news regarding the relationship between these two countries. You see a little bit of a move. Ayman, thank you. It's Eamon javors down in D.C. about these headlines, you markets on the high.
- [45:54]
Joe Terranova
Yes, the market likes it. Yeah, capital's flowing in 2 and 2.
- [45:59]
Scott Wapner
And 2/3% for the NAS. A real point of contention, obviously, between these two countries, export controls regarding chips which were already one of the brightest spots in the market today. If you looked at Broadcom and Micron, for example, those stocks are ripping again. Nasdaq's good for 585 points, 2⅔ percents and P is good for 1 1/2 percent. Dow's up quite nicely. So you have a nice move here to start the week. We're back after this with Santoli and his midday work. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joins us for his midday word. We're taking stock of what happened last week. We saw some stocks get taken down to the studs, some other asset classes as well. And now you're talking about building a more balanced bull with a question mark.
- [46:47]
Mike Santoli
That is the question mark. I think fitfully that's the the optimistic take on what's been going on. A lot of the imbalances, excesses have definitely been to a degree addressed. We finally get the first 5% pullback out of the way. All of the real hyper aggressive high beta stuff got reeled back to like January, I mean August, sometimes July levels. So we did part of that, part of today feels as if if Bitcoin is not going down anymore, I have to worry about knock on selling. We know what happens in the holiday week and maybe there's still the room for December to to be a recovery month. Then let's not get too negative. There's plenty to prove. Everyone's watching the the same levels. Everyone's watching Thursday's high, which also by the way, in the S and P coincides with the high from before the October 10th gut check. So like the high the market ever made before this turbulent period is also at that same level, just above 6750 so today's certainly positive. What's interesting is it started out very narrow in the Nasdaq and now it's broadened out. I think matter has outperformed Google by like 300 basis points since 10am so it shows you that people are trying to see if they can feel more comfortable going into the the blast zone and pick some things.
- [48:03]
Scott Wapner
Wasn't Nvidia was in the red earlier today? It was, it was under 18 for a little bit. Now it's good for 2%.
- [48:09]
Mike Santoli
So, so it's inclusive. Look, it is still top heavy. I mean, you know, we can be stringent about it and say the equal weight S and P is only up half a percent, but it's, it's certainly constructive. We'll see what goes from here. I see see this stuff all the time and I feel like this market has V bottoms more than any market in the past, you know, like in the last couple of years. So as much as it seems like, oh, we got to rebuild a base and get back above the moving averages, you probably do. But sometimes market just wants to get it all back in a hurry.
- [48:35]
Scott Wapner
All right, I'll see you in a couple of hours. On closing bell. That's Mike Santoli. We'll do finals after this break.
- [48:44]
Joe Terranova
Are you following the Halftime Report podcast?
- [48:47]
Josh Brown
What are you waiting for?
- [48:49]
Joe Terranova
Look for us in your favorite podcasting app. Follow the halftime podcast now.
- [48:56]
Scott Wapner
All right, join me today. Closing bell, three o' clock Eastern. Dan Greenhouse, Courtney Garcia, Abby Yoder, Gene Munster on Google's amazing move and Jeff DeGraff. We'll check the charts. What he sees now given last week's volatility. Steve Weiss, give me a final trade.
- [49:12]
Steve Weiss
If you want semi luck if this move continues. Taiwan semi should recover its all ties. If it doesn't, I think it's low risk downside.
- [49:20]
Scott Wapner
All right, it's a nice move there. But of course the whole space is rallying today.
- [49:23]
Steve Weiss
Yep.
- [49:24]
Joe Terranova
Joe T. XBI Scott just keeps going higher, buy more, buy high, sell higher. You do want to raise your stop here to 110. That's what I'm doing personally. This has been a really strong trade over the last three months. I think 125 is the next stop.
- [49:38]
Scott Wapner
Nicely done. And Josh Brown, it's going to be.
- [49:42]
Josh Brown
Another iPhone Christmas, folks. It's been a while since we've had one. It's real. You're seeing Apple at a all time high or just pennies away from an all time high. I think it's pretty clear that they're going to have a good quarter.
- [49:54]
Scott Wapner
It's been getting rewarded for iPhone 17. Been getting rewarded maybe in some respects too, for having a little more restraint on the spend relative to some of the others. So a lot of things seem to be working there. That does it for us. We've got a nice day building. I'll see you for the final stretch on closing bell, 3 o' clock Eastern. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [50:24]
Commercial Narrator
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.comhalftimereportdisclaimer.
- [51:03]
Ripple Podcast Host
Think of your commute, your train, your car, maybe your walk. Even if you don't realize it, crypto and blockchain innovations are all around you on your way into the office, so why not learn about them on the way? From institutional custody solutions to 247 cross border payments with nearly real time settlements, crypto and blockchain are shaping flexibility and innovation for institutions all over the globe and your city. Join Ripple and host David Schwartz for crypto and blockchain conversations on Blockstars, the podcast. It's happening with Ripple.