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Halftime Report
The Tech Sector’s New All-Time High 6/25/25
00:44:32
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate the tech takeoff as the sector hits a new all-time high. Plus, Brian Belski calls in with his revised price target for the S&P 500. And later, the desk debates the latest Calls of the Day. Investment Committee Disclosures
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- [00:00]
Heather
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Scott Wapner
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Heather
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Scott Wapner
And downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all. Because life is a winding path made rich by the people you walk it with. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones Member, SIPC Heather is a.
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Scott Wapner
We meet patients wherever they live.
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Heather
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Scott Wapner
Jack's blood pressure was dangerously high.
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Jason Snipes
It was 217 over 110.
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Heather
So they got Jack to the hospital.
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Jason Snipes
And got him the help he needed.
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Scott Wapner
He had had a stent placed in his heart, preventing a massive heart attack.
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Heather
If it wasn't for my guardian angel, I wouldn't be here. Hear more stories like Jack's at unitedhealthcare.com benefits, features and or devices vary by plan. Area limitation and exclusions apply. I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. All right, Sarah, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wobner. Front and center this hour, the tech takeoff. The sector hitting a new all time high. S and p less than 1% away from its own milestone. We're trading all of it, of course, with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour, Joe Terranova. Carrie fires, Jason Snipes, Steve Weiss. Let's check the markets here. We were a little mixed today. Obviously you heard Mike talking about breadth underneath the surface here. Not great. It remains very much a tech story, Joe. That's what's gotten us to within 3/4 of 1% on the S and P from a new all time high. And the tech sector, as we said, the NAS 100 is at a record high.
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Joe Terranova
S and P equal weight is down 60 basis points right now. So the broadening out narrative that dominated the early part of 2020, 2025, it's not in play. Steve is often mentioned. Don't go away from the Mag 7. Well, here's the reasoning why it's a Mag 7 story right now. It's about trying to get Nvidia above that all time intraday high at $153.13. We stalled at 153. I'm sure we'll take it out at one at one point here very soon. But it's about technology. It's about new 52 week highs. Microsoft, Microsoft, Palantir, Oracle, Cisco, IBM. The Revenge of old technology. Crowdstrike, Broadcom, Amphenol. All about technology right now.
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Heather
Yeah. Care. Is this the way you want to ride this, this market right now? Well this is because by the way, you know what, before I let you answer that, it isn't just about technology. Finance, industrials are record high. Financials are only 1% away. Utilities 2% away. I know it appears as though it's all about tech but actually correct, it isn't. There's a lot that's working.
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Jason Snipes
Yeah, so I was going to say that. Not mag seven, mag whatever, four or five. It's the ones that are less affected perhaps by tariffs. Microsoft software, social media communications leading the way here but financials again very strong. I was looking at names. American Express, Charles Schwab, the semiconductor cap equipment, the industrials, Watt Tech and name we own. It's, it's a combination of US base or don't care about the tariffs because they're not going to hurt me per se. And that's a theme of this market. It's why Apple is down and Microsoft is up. But it also is going to push against where we can be the upper limit with earnings coming in and who knows how strong. But if you're 28 times earnings as a group, it's hard to push through that. We can get through this beyond the old S&P 500 high, but going up a whole lot further than that. I don't know. I think that we run into some selling pressure.
- [04:10]
Heather
Okay, we're going to bring in somebody in a moment who says we are going to go much higher than that. So he'll push back on that. But before we do that, Jason Snipe, how do you see this market right now?
- [04:18]
Carrie Farris
Yeah, I think you got to respect the tape, Scott. You know when I'm looking at you know, even some of the higher level kind of macro oil is down 15%. You know the Vix is down 15% in the last two days. Ark innovation is up 8%. So there's some speculative fever that's going on. Gold also down three and a half percent over the last few days. And just thinking about this Iran conflict, we're kind of past that story and all the flows that are coming into AI, what's going on with financials. So for me I remain bullish on this market. I think there's a lot of even the tariff story I think has, has been quieted down and just kind of paying attention to the Price action. I think you have to kind of ride the wave here.
- [04:57]
Heather
Yeah. Barclays wife says big tech inflows save America. It's helped the overall US Outperformance of late. UBS says the tech rally has legs. We said Microsoft hits a new high and video is not that far away. How do you see it?
- [05:15]
Steve Weiss
That's how I see it. I run a concentrated book and most of my book is is in big cap tech. So to me they're permanent compounders. And sure, valuation gets stressed stretched every so often, but they eventually grow into that valuation. Plus they've got the best balance sheets they, they spend for growth, which is what their spending is. And the concerns about will they make money off of it, I think are misplaced. They will. The timing is an issue, but they will make money off it. So I don't know. I know why you want to be in other areas as I am and some of those areas you mentioned, frankly.
- [05:53]
Heather
Yeah.
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Steve Weiss
But at the end of the day they're just permanent compounders that deserve by and large multiples they get. So why stray?
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Heather
So let's bring in the person I suggested thinks we are going to go not only to new highs, but well beyond that. He's Brian Belsky. He has raised his S and P target now back to 6700. He joins us by the phone. So you're playing this game. I mean the market goes up and you reversed course here. Why?
- [06:27]
Brian Belsky
Great question. Thank you so much for having us. I know you love it when I say it, but I'm humbled to be on. We wrote a piece three weeks ago, Scott, and kind of detailed what we needed to see in terms of signposts with respect to be bullish now, coulda, shoulda, woulda in terms of raising our targets. A while ago we wanted to make sure that we started to hear more about companies providing guidance. We wanted to hear more about and see actually less the law of diminishing returns in terms of the rhetoric and noise out of Washington. And then lastly in terms of our own fundamental work which we've been publishing for a long time, when we take a look at earnings, which is a cornerstone to why we continue to be long tech, communication services, financials and discretionary is for years and years and years part of our process has been looking at earnings revisions and earnings revisions for the majority of these sectors, especially tech, have bottomed and are going to, we believe, beginning to go up a lot. So we think at the end, the last six months of the year, so the next two quarters we actually think financials of the area where analyst numbers are still way too low, that we're going to see a lot of very strong balance sheet and cash flow. There's that is going to drive earnings going forward. So that's why we are overweight those four sectors. And oh by the way, from a fundamental bottoms up perspective, that's why we still like the market and oh by the way, have the entire time when we did lower our target, by the way, in April, we made a comment, we said we own what we own. We made no changes to our portfolios or allocations. So April, May, June have been one of the best performing quarters of me running MONEY as a published analyst for over 20 years. So we were right to remain prudently bullish and now we're just adjusting our target as such.
- [08:16]
Heather
I'm just wondering if you're in any way premature in doing so. And the only reason I ask that is because if you're making a declarative statement that guidance is going to be good. How do you know? Number one, earnings season hasn't even started yet. You're making a declarative statement that there's more bark from bite from whatever happens out of D.C. how do you know? We don't know what the ultimate levels on tariffs are going to be. The market obviously appears to be somewhat desensitized to that. We don't know the end game to the big beautiful bill. And when you declare that the death of American exceptionalism as you have today was widely exaggerated and too vehemently applauded, these are your words to hold any merit or duration in our view. I mean there has been something going on with the bond market and the dollar. So you make very clear statements here that I'm wondering why you're not at risk of being too early.
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Brian Belsky
Thanks for asking that. I really appreciate that. You know, as you know, my job is to be the chief investment strategist for BMO Capital Markets. We have the great fortune of traveling around the world and talking to clients all over the world. My institutional clients. We also know our institutional clients are massively overexposed. China in Europe and because they left America, not because of fundamental reasons, but because of other reasons. They've been reluctant buyers of US stocks for over 20 years and they saw their opportunity to do so. Now we've seen the relative performance of those areas begin to suffer greatly. We've also seen the relative performance of the dollar. The majority of its losses were actually done the first four months of the year. Scott, something we talked about last time when we were on your show in terms of the bond market, we are seeing some solidification which we've said now since November of 2022 that we believe that 10 year treasuries are going to be entering A range between 350 and 450 from a normalization pattern which we do believe that the major trend in markets the next five years is normalization. That's a pretty good environment to be in. Lastly, in terms of guidance, when you take a look at charts, right, we are not technicians, we are not chart followers or affirmation confirmation. At the end of the day, we like to be more contrarian. If you take a look at the number of in the S&P 500 that are actually providing guidance, it's beginning to like not providing guidance. It's bottoming out. You want to buy things on the turn. So we believe that more companies are going to be we're getting ahead of this because that's investing you want to be before, before things happen. Companies are going to be providing more guidance in second quarter financials are going to crush the numbers. Financial companies are going to be the first to provide guidance for the rest of the year and the market can, will and should applaud that.
- [10:56]
Heather
Weiss has something for you. B. Go ahead.
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Steve Weiss
Yeah, it's kind of interesting you talk about guidance when we've been in a quiet period for about two weeks and companies haven't even been able to talk to anybody about guidance. And as you go and look at the second, at the, @ the guidance going forward, you have to make the assumption that we're going to get an awful lot of trade deals in next week or that tariffs are going to come in big time on July 9 or Trump is going to push it forward. And given how unpredictable this administration is, what I come out with, because I also don't agree with your statement that it was vehemently applauded that American exceptionalism is dead. I think that byline that headline rather lasted for all of two minutes. So to me, Brian, and I'm humbled to be able to put this to you this way, is that you came to your conclusion from first and look for a way to support it. And that way to support is built on a house of cards or uncertainty. So you're making a bet and I get that. And that's what you do for a living. That's what I do. But I just don't think you have the ammunition ammunition at this point in time to make that bet.
- [12:03]
Brian Belsky
Well, thanks for your Comments Steve I appreciate that but what we do is research. We look at all 500 companies in the S&P 500. We also run all cap monies. We look at another thousand companies. So I have a team that scours through earnings releases. I know we're in a two week quiet period but not all companies report on a calendar basis. Steve also with respect to you have to also as I said in my comments to Scott and what we've written, you have to dovetail and combine what earnings revisions are actually doing. Steve which the path of guidance. So sometimes you do have to make a call. A house of cards I think is too strong. We're not going to comment on politics because I think what politics again approved this year is that politics have nothing to do with the absolute to the stock market. It can either enhance or detract. It's been proven out this year. I don't. I'm not a politician. I'm not a politician. Steve can I speak, please? Listen, you know I am an analyst. I'm a published analyst. We've done the work, we've proven ourselves. We have a published track record. I speak what I speak, I say what I mean. And it's been proven and it's been proven to my results. So you can punch holes in it as much as you want. It doesn't do anybody any good. I appreciate your side of the story.
- [13:18]
Heather
So you're with us on Friday. I'm going to give Joe Ternova has a question for you too. Let's do that then. I'm going to get some news in a moment, but go ahead.
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Steve Weiss
Brian.
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Joe Terranova
Third quarter debt issuance rises significantly for governments, corporations. Where are you on the relationship between rising debt issuance yields that potentially could rise not just here but around the world and that relationship with equities?
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Brian Belsky
The great question, Joe, nice to hear your voice. We publish this thing called the US Chart book and we have a page for every single sector where we look at the operating performance of sectors and if you take a look at where free cash flow is and where debt to equity is the majority of debt to equity ratios for the majority of sectors excluding utilities, straight down free cash flow straight up. In terms of debt issuance, we'll see. With respect to what's going to happen with the Fed, our call is not encumbered on the Fed. Cutting rates, our call is all about what we're seeing in earnings and what we're hearing from companies. So I do believe that from a corporate perspective in terms of the actual financial statements of A company in a sector which we look at, we think the US Companies are very well positioned.
- [14:28]
Heather
All right, we'll leave it there. Brian, thanks for calling in. We're humbled that you're so humbled to be on. We are. And we'll see you in person, I think on Friday, which is even better, that we get to see your face and not only hear your voice. That's Brian Belsky at bmo. We do have a news alert. Brian Sullivan has it. More on those Shell BP talks. Sully, what do you got?
- [14:46]
Brian Sullivan
Yeah, so the Wall Street Journal, by the way, about an hour ago putting out a story that Shell is in advance talks or talks to potentially buy bp. I'm not going to throw entirely a bucket of cold water on that headline, but I will say that I've talked to a number of sources and at companies in and around the industry, bankers, etc. And here's what CNBC can report on this. It is unlikely that BP would be bought by Shell in its entirety. It is more likely if a deal transpires and it's possible no deal does transpire. But if a deal does transpire, it is possible that BP is effectively sold not in chunks, that's, that's a bad term. But, but maybe Shell buys some and say an Abu Dhabi national oil company or another international buyer buys other parts of bp. Again, this is in relation to the Wall Street Journal story regarding Shell potentially in talks to buy bp. My sources, CBC can't confirm that if there are talks, it is potentially about BP being bought in parts by multiple buyers, not just the Shell. Why would that be the case, guys? Well, bp, remember, really hasn't been itself since the Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. Had to spend a fortune on that terrible pr. Just an awful disaster. The company then tried to pivot to more sort of renewables outside of oil and gas. Changed the name effectively to beyond petroleum and some of the marketing campaigns. The company struggled their leadership. Bernard Looney left the company. Murray Austin Slosh is now the CEO. So there's been a lot of changes at bp. The stock has not performed along with the rest of the group. And while Sawan, who is the head of Shell, he's the young aggressive CEO who wants to get more in the profitable areas of the business, certainly could look to make a deal. But if it's done, guys, it probably would not be BP being bought as a whole. It might be Shell buying some and another potential buyer buying others. I will continue to update the story as I do reporting throughout the day.
- [16:50]
Heather
All right, we'll follow it. Solid. Thank you. It's Brian Sullivan with the latest as we follow that developing story. Kerry, you have a thought?
- [16:56]
Jason Snipes
I was just going to say that when I followed the oil industry, which was decades ago, it was the crown jewel of the British government's connection with industry. Sir Colin Marshall was knighted. It was. It was just a phenomenal business with all of the oil in the North Sea. And what's happened since then is it's been, you know, an unbelievable tough situation the last 15 years.
- [17:19]
Heather
Joe, you have a thought on that?
- [17:20]
Joe Terranova
I know Paul Singer and Elliot were still there. Steve, do you know if they're still. They still maintain the position or not, but.
- [17:26]
Steve Weiss
Don't know, but the position is not big enough to drive a conclusion here.
- [17:29]
Joe Terranova
But listen, bp, to Brian's point, has struggled. This would create quite a conglomerate, though, in Europe. This would rival the size of Chevron or Exxon. So I see. I see this potential synergies, and the synergies really exist just because of the struggles that BP has had over the last several years. I think there would have to be a strong premium here that Shell would have to pay of at least 20 to 25%.
- [17:52]
Steve Weiss
You'd have to get through the government also.
- [17:55]
Heather
We might as well talk about industrials at the moment, frankly, if that's a segue or not, we're going to do it anyway. It's at or near a record high for that space and there is plenty of ownership on this desk. Weiss, how do you so. Caterpillar, fti, Leidos, the XLI etf. What about that space? I mean, here and now it's trying to, you know, raise its hand and say, hey, don't forget about. Don't forget about us. We're doing quite well. It's not all about tech.
- [18:23]
Steve Weiss
Yeah. And there are different elements to the airlines, of course, part of the industrials and, and flying. I mean, airfares have doubled and tripled and they've. So. So despite cutting capacity in some of these markets, they're generating much more revenue, much higher profitability. So that's one reason of the industrials. But overall, I think it dovetails with the move in the market. So as the market moves higher and led by one group, you look to spread out your best and see what hasn't had that kind of move. So that's why Caterpillar is one of the reasons why I'm in it. And if I'm wrong on what guidance is and what the economy looks like, then I won't have exposure.
- [19:03]
Heather
I mean the economy looks pretty good.
- [19:05]
Steve Weiss
I mean it does and we heard from looks good today.
- [19:07]
Heather
Fed Chair Powell continues to say as much. I mean the, the bulls like Belsky.
- [19:13]
Steve Weiss
Yeah.
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Heather
They may have the last laugh in this whole thing.
- [19:17]
Steve Weiss
Yeah.
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Heather
But quite frankly.
- [19:18]
Steve Weiss
But we, what we don't talk about and I don't expect to see employment really drop, unemployment really go up is that when you lose the immigrant labor that you have, you tighten labor force and what that means is you've got to pay a lot more. And we see in some of our companies we hear about from other companies and whether it's the electrical contractors or other contractors building out these big data centers, I mean skilled labor is very tough to come.
- [19:44]
Heather
So wages go up and then the consumer hangs in and people spend more. I don't know what to tell you. I mean.
- [19:48]
Steve Weiss
Well, to certain segments of the economy it's a skilled labor part of the economy and it'll feed through the others. So I don't disagree. But if wages go up, the economy will do well. Undoubtedly. But the Fed won't cut no market.
- [20:02]
Heather
If they don't cut because the economy is strong to the point where they don't have to, then so be it.
- [20:07]
Steve Weiss
Well my point is they may in fact I don't see it right now. But depending upon tariffs which you're looking as a one time event and we'll know more in July.
- [20:16]
Heather
Powell himself doesn't know which he continues continues to nobody. The only reason they're on hold is because they just don't know.
- [20:21]
Steve Weiss
Right.
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Heather
And they want to be extra. Sure.
- [20:24]
Steve Weiss
Right.
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Heather
Despite some of the other calls this week from other Fed officials that maybe July should be really live.
- [20:29]
Steve Weiss
Right. But if my point is they've got a dual mandate, one's inflation. Right. And that's the one I'm talking about. And you will see that with wages going up, they watch that very carefully. So they're in a very tough spot. The point is a 70% probability that we see in the markets of two cuts this year. I don't think that's a great bet. I think you could get one near term because it take a while for inflation to feed through the I mean.
- [20:52]
Heather
The other area if you want to say is playing right in the hands of a better than expected economy is the financial group best week since mid May. Over the period of one month you have nice gains from the Citigroups 11%, the Goldman 10 and a half. You've got Goldman, Jay, you got Goldman. IPOs have been picking Up. Yep, we, we're not hearing animal spirits again yet. But there definitely is more optimism around capital markets activity 100%.
- [21:23]
Joe Terranova
Let me clarify my remarks. At the beginning of the show when I was defining the environment, I said it's all about technology. I'm talking about today's today. Today equal weighted is down 60 basis points. But you're right, Scott, you said this before. Industrials have been the least leading sector. Financials are there to participate as well as it relates to industrials. I think a lot of people have dismissed the premise that the commercial airline production growth was real. That's impacted a lot of those companies like Heico and like Helmet. And then in terms of financials, if we were talking six, nine months ago, we'd be talking about insurance companies, we'd be talking about Chubb and Allstate, we'd be saying okay, when are we going to get the participation from other areas like private equity? Well look, now you have KKR which is finally participating once again. Certainly JP Morgan, which traded to an all time high recently, that's working as well. So it's broadening out the opportunity in the financial sector. I also think that the market sees something in the regulatory relief in the back half of the year that is going to benefit the financial sector.
- [22:24]
Heather
Starting to get baked in to Jason Blackstone and KKR overweight reiterated today at Morgan Stanley. You have Blackstone, Kerry does too. But what you're talking about private equity names which are sniffing something out.
- [22:35]
Carrie Farris
You got it. And obviously Blackstone has been an underperformer this year down around 16%. But they, they really play in this infrastructure space. They just bought a, an energy company for about almost $6 billion that provides electricity to New Mexico and Texas. They have $177 billion of dry powder that's looking to be deployed. So I just think that the macro is less cloudy which I think is creating an opportunity for these players to really get busy.
- [23:03]
Jason Snipes
Yeah, I would say that in order of importance right now, regulations have been part of the story. It's deals. The idea that these companies can do deals and realizations are the IPO market picking up and the last thing interest rates come down that helps the P E market.
- [23:19]
Heather
Why, why should I? Private equity names.
- [23:23]
Steve Weiss
No, I don't. And that's been a complete miss. And I keep looking at my KKR I like quite a bit and I don't view them as expensive. But what the market sniffing out here, it's very related to the bank trade because these companies have been running continuation funds which means that they can't sell into an IPO market. So they give back money to investors. Other investors step in. So if you can go, if you can liquidate your holdings in the IPO market, you'll drive your fee realization. And so it's very, very closely aligned with the banks for those reasons. They are doing deals, they're able to finance deals that's never stop. So I do think they're good plays here and goodbyes. And you know, I may surprise you next week.
- [24:04]
Heather
Let's, let's wrap up the block by just talking about a couple of moves from Joe that he has on something that he's talked a lot about this this week and last, it's the Israel etf. Yes. You're out of it now.
- [24:17]
Joe Terranova
Out of the Israel etf. And the other side of that was, was ownership of Canadian oil companies Suncor and Enbridge. This was a collaborative trade that I put on Friday, June 13th. I was basically buying Israel. I've done well in that trade. Obviously not so well in Suncor and Enbridge. Exiting the trade in totality, you have probably about a 3.5% gain on the whole trade.
- [24:40]
Heather
All right, let's take a break. When we come back, a big drop for one committee stock. Plus, we will debate our top calls of the day. There are many. Halftime's back in two.
- [24:57]
Scott Wapner
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- [25:31]
Heather
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Heather
Learn more at capella. Edu. All right, we're back. We want to take a look at shares of QXO. They're doing a $2 billion stock offering. They're in the bidding war. Right. What's your thought? You've been in the stock a long time. The stock's down 85% from its 52 week high.
- [27:08]
Steve Weiss
Right.
- [27:10]
Heather
First of all, why are you still in it and what do you make of what's going on now with the, with the news reports of this, this bidding war?
- [27:17]
Steve Weiss
Yeah, and I'm not down 85%.
- [27:19]
Heather
I know you're not, but I mean, the stock is obviously making a statement. No, no, no.
- [27:24]
Steve Weiss
It's not what it was. So Brad Jacobs announced that he was buying the company and it was at five bucks. And I don't know who the fools were that bid it up to 200 and change, but there was basically just Brad Jacobs saying he's buying it. And Brad Jacobs didn't buy for that level. So Brad, when Brad took control, he did a pipe price. The price, the pipe at $9.14. I was one of seven that were in that transaction.
- [27:51]
Heather
Okay, okay.
- [27:52]
Steve Weiss
And that's where I got in. That's where everybody got in. Value is very, very thin. There was no surprise to anybody that when you have that kind of massive dilution, the stock price is going to reset. And that's what it did. Now here's what's happened. He's been a money making, money raising machine. And each dollar he raises translates into future revenue and growth. So. So I like the fact they raised it. By the way, that block was done overnight. It was done by all, by all big names, big fundamental producers. He's had no problem raising capital.
- [28:26]
Heather
Do you care how the, the competition comes out for the, the gms?
- [28:32]
Steve Weiss
Well, you know, all we have. Look, Brad is a one and done most of the time. Now when he bought Beacon Supply, he raised it by, I don't know, a dime or two, 20 cents. So he's very disciplined. He's consolidated companies. He's made a fortune doing it, as has his shareholders, United rental Europe, over 100 times. So right now what we have is a headline that, that Home Depot is doing. So Brad's not in a bidding war. Home Depot comes in at 98 or 100 bucks. I don't think Brad's going to follow him in but he's got a war chest and he's got a long list of M and A targets. So this is a permanent compounder. So this is when you want to own. He's promised market he'll be a $50 billion company, you know in in over the next decade.
- [29:17]
Heather
All right, ServiceNow by at DA Davidson. It's initiated that way. 11:50 Jason Snipe is the price target right there. We think they'd say they're in the early stages of disrupting the CRM market.
- [29:30]
Carrie Farris
I absolutely believe that with the new product innovations on their generative AI tools this stock was down almost 20%. You know pre earnings is now down around 5% year to date. So there's been a lot of push. The earnings growth was really good at EPS. EPS growth was 19%, revenue growth was 18%. But they now have over 500 customers at an annual contract value above 5 million which is 20% year over year growth. So there is a lot of momentum here. So I continue to like this software.
- [29:57]
Heather
Now carry S and P Global reiterated overweight JP PM. 575 bucks is the price target. We expect S and P to organically grow revenues in the high single digit percentage points over time aided by innovation, pricing power and cross pollination of solutions across five segments. What do you think about that call?
- [30:13]
Jason Snipes
I think that all makes sense. I think there's more to go. That's 10% upside from this price. It's never a cheap stock. It exists in a monopoly or duopoly situation in many of their markets including the ratings business which has been weak because not a lot of issuance of new debt and there will be if interest rates come down.
- [30:30]
Heather
We're jumping to McKesson reiterated by 775 bucks at Argus. Joe, this is yours.
- [30:35]
Joe Terranova
They're really executing cost efficiency. It's almost a strategy that we saw in play at a number of years ago. Skinnying down the business moving away from areas that have been underperforming, getting out of geographic areas like Europe that have been challenged as well. So that skinnying down process process is leading to revenue growth acceleration and the street is rewarding them.
- [30:56]
Heather
All right. Ubs, they're bullish today on Ross, TJX and Burlington. They have increased conviction that those three companies are still good investments at current valuations. You own Ross and tjx. You sold Burlington in the most recent rebalance. Tell us more.
- [31:10]
Joe Terranova
Yeah, highlight the word still. Highlight the word still because what they're trying to do is Defend against what has been poor price. Price action. I could tell you that these still.
- [31:19]
Heather
What do you mean still?
- [31:20]
Joe Terranova
Well, they're saying still because they're defending against the still Good. Still good. They're defending against the poor price action in a lot of these names. I could tell you that these names have lost the momentum. Clearly we're in an environment where maybe not so much off price is as valuable as we previously thought. Collectively of all of them, I still view TJX as the best in class just because of the economy as scale.
- [31:44]
Heather
You got a thought on that? No. Anybody else?
- [31:48]
Steve Weiss
I mean, I'm separate. I'm looking at Lululemon and that stock just continues.
- [31:52]
Heather
Been terrible. Continue to make looking at it, maybe buying it.
- [31:56]
Steve Weiss
You know, I keep looking at it. But then, you know, competition is really hitting them. You've got aloe, you've got others.
- [32:02]
Heather
That's been the story for like for a couple of years now.
- [32:04]
Steve Weiss
Yeah, but the growth they've had, their store base, the competition is pretty significant. A couple of years ago, yeah, they were on the scene mostly online, but now it's. I don't know, I'd like to buy it because I think it's. It's a better company than those two and those two are short term.
- [32:20]
Heather
What do you think is a better buy right now? Lulu or Nike? Where's the better risk reward?
- [32:24]
Joe Terranova
Where's the better risk reward?
- [32:26]
Steve Weiss
It's asking if I want to die by gun or by sword. So, you know, they both have the same issues. I mean Nike seen massive competition come in.
- [32:37]
Jason Snipes
What about sourcing China? Is the whole issue with Nike? Is it also true with Lulu? I don't know.
- [32:42]
Steve Weiss
It is, but not to as large an extent. I'd probably say Lulu.
- [32:45]
Heather
I don't know what the valuation comparison is off the top of my head, so.
- [32:48]
Steve Weiss
Well, Nike's cheaper by probably say Lulu.
- [32:50]
Heather
Yeah. Contessa Brewer has the headlines. Hey, Contessa. Hi there, Scott. A court hearing is set to begin this afternoon over the release terms for Kilmar Abrego Garcia. That's the man the Trump administration mistake mistakenly deported to El Salvador. He's currently in federal custody awaiting a trial for smuggling charges after he was brought back to the US earlier this month. But likely he would be placed into ICE custody after he's formally released. Walmart's looking to speed up deliveries by opening up so called dark stores which resemble regular stores but they're closed to the public. Bloomberg reports these locations will carry popular items that to help Walmart cover a wider delivery area. That company expects its online business to be profitable this year after investing billions of dollars to compete with Amazon and Ferrari, unveiling today a racing yacht prototype, the maker of this high end supercar that we all know is branching out into sailing. Ferrari says the 100 foot vessel does not have a combustion engine and instead will be powered with renewable energy generated by its sales. Ferrari adds that the yacht will be used to research technology that could actually be used in the future for cars and in motorsports. That's exciting, Scott. All right, Tessa. Thank you, Contestant Brewer. Straight ahead, your second half Playbook will debate a fresh list of stocks to own in the third quarter. When we come back. Hey, I'm journalist Sam Sanders. I'm poet Saeed Jones. And I'm producer Zach Stafford. And we are the hosts of a podcast called Vibe Check. On Vibe Check, we talk about everything, news, culture and entertainment and how it all feels. That's right. We talk about any and everything on our show from real life issues like grief to music and movie critiques. And that barely scratches the surface. Yes, indeed. And it doesn't stop there. We have got a lot to say. So join our group, chat, come to life, follow and listen to Vibe Check wherever you get your podcasts.
- [35:08]
Jason Snipes
Hi, everyone, it's Nicole Wallace from msnbc. Listen to my new podcast called the Best People. I get to speak to some of the smartest, funniest and wisest people I have ever encountered. People like Cara Swisher, Rachel Maddow, Doc Rivers, Jason Bateman, Jeff Daniels and Sarah Jessica Parker.
- [35:26]
Steve Weiss
They'll often say, hey, Kerry, you know.
- [35:27]
Jason Snipes
They'Ll call me Carrie. And that's all right, too.
- [35:30]
Steve Weiss
The Best People with Nicole Wallace. New episodes drop Mondays. Listen now, wherever you get your PODC Foreign.
- [35:52]
Heather
Welcome back. So Piper Sandler came out with a list today of stocks they say you should own in the third quarter based on targeting stable quality fundamentals. Overall, we do not think this is a good backdrop to be overweight, riskier, more economically sensitive or low quality names. Now I'm going to read off a bunch of names. We do have a ownership and we're going to trade them because maybe you want them as well. Charter Communications. All right, that's one name on the list. It's up 17% carry year to date. Most attractive on this list. That's one of them. Yeah.
- [36:25]
Jason Snipes
Well, we continue to think it will be. Well, Charter had a terrible past couple of years because of miscalculation, I think about rural expansion. And then there are people cutting the cords. So they've gotten through that process. Now the rural expansion is starting to be additive. They've done more on the non cable side of their business, meaning communications and phone planning. And that's beginning to show growth in cash flow. So we still like it here.
- [36:54]
Heather
Okay. I'm also not going to get a read off names that we talk about all the time or that are, you know, obvious. Newmont, Joe, up 56% year to date.
- [37:05]
Joe Terranova
To play on gold. We have the position because of the strong momentum in gold. I wouldn't advise reaching for it right here. There are other names on this list that none of us own that I think are more attractive.
- [37:17]
Heather
Like what?
- [37:18]
Joe Terranova
Chewy.
- [37:19]
Brian Belsky
Ulta.
- [37:20]
Heather
Chewy's up 30% year to date. EBay's up 21% year to date. And Ulta, Ulta's up 6%.
- [37:29]
Joe Terranova
Ulta. Three of those names, quality names, strong balance sheets and seeing a revival in the momentum factor, which all three of those names were void of over the last 18 months.
- [37:41]
Heather
American Tower Carry, it's up 20%.
- [37:44]
Jason Snipes
Another name that underperformed over the last couple of years in part because interest rates were higher. Now people are realizing that the tower business is a utility. Their overseas business, which is half of of what they own, has been very strong and those markets have been improving so people are moving back toward it.
- [38:02]
Heather
Jay, we haven't talked about Costco all that much lately, but it's on this list and it's up 9% year to date.
- [38:08]
Carrie Farris
Yeah, no, it's been, it's been a great company obviously and I think the concern around the consumer early part of the year was played a factor. But they cater to the higher end consumer. They've, they've done very well in managing cost going forward. The Kirkland brand is growing really nicely. The traffic continues to pick up, you know, so I like this well managed company. I love the annuity business of the.
- [38:29]
Heather
Membership growth that they have new holdings, Joe, up 31% that's a play in.
- [38:34]
Joe Terranova
Latin America you get exposure to digital banking in Brazil. Been a very strong name, has a degree of volatility. You have to understand that and size the position accordingly.
- [38:45]
Heather
Expedia, down 10% year to date, lost its momentum. Why?
- [38:51]
Joe Terranova
I think it's lost its momentum.
- [38:53]
Heather
Here's the one for you. Why is booking holdings up 10% year to date and Expedia is down 10%. So with that.
- [39:01]
Joe Terranova
Yeah, I mean they've kind of been in. TripAdvisor has been doing this as well. They've kind of been trading places in terms of where you're seeing the acceleration of growth. I would say that except Expedia has had a very uneven course since 2022, where Booking holdings has been more of a steady rise. I think also the geographic exposure of each of these companies has come into play as well. So we have the ownership of Expedia and a lot of that is because we saw some recent momentum that doesn't seem to be validated by the price action. Carrie, to you want wanting holdings is better.
- [39:39]
Heather
You want to tell them? Well, I tell them since you own.
- [39:42]
Jason Snipes
Booking Holdings, I think the platform, I think their technology platform is a little more sophisticated. And I also think that the Intra Europe business, which is now very strong, less people coming to the union is is one of bookings strongest parts of its business. And that's very much and you did.
- [39:57]
Joe Terranova
Hear me say I think bookings.
- [39:59]
Jason Snipes
Thank you, Jeff.
- [40:00]
Joe Terranova
Even though we own it.
- [40:01]
Heather
I wanted Carrie's, I wanted Terry's explanation, Santoli's next. We're back after this. Welcome back to the Halftime report. Our friends at GOLF Channel are following the PGA Tour stop this week at the Rocket Classic. Golf Channel reporter Amy Rodgers joins us live from Detroit with what to expect. Hi, Amy.
- [40:43]
Scott Wapner
Hey there, Scott. Well, Keegan Bradley, the most recent winner on the PGA Tour, is teeing it up again here this week at the Rocket Classic. Bradley has put himself in a bit of a precarious position as the US Ryder cup captain, has now played his way into the top 10 in the Ryder cup point standings with his victory last week. And so now we'll have to consider whether to possibly pick himself for his own team or with a strong finish over this closing stretch of the season, could play his way onto his own team. Well, Bradley is one of several top ranked players in the field here this week in addition to Colin Morikawa and Patrick Cantley. Also here, a two time winner of the Rocket Classic, Cam Davis. He won this event not only last year in 2024, but also in 2021. So he is looking to do something that's never been done before at the Rocket Classic and that is to win this event for a third time. He said he's had some struggles with his game coming in since the beginning of the season and is hopeful he can find a spark here at a place where he has had so much success before now. It's hard to believe we're already at this stage of the season. The Rocket Classic just won a full four full field events remaining on the PGA Tour schedule, so it represents a final opportunity for some of these guys to make a move in their respective standings. You've got some guys looking to keep their tour card at the end of the year, others hoping to make a climb up the Ryder cup point standings, while others are focused on the FedEx cup points list. That's probably most top of mind here this week as the cutoff to qualify for that first playoff event in mid August is approaching rapidly and the top 70 in the point standings will qualify.
- [42:21]
Heather
Scott Bradley's win was so emotional last week. Being from New England obviously and winning there for the second time, you have to believe that the will he pick himself and play question is just going to follow him right to the finish in mid August or so when the team is selected.
- [42:43]
Scott Wapner
Absolutely. I think it's definitely weighing on him. I spoke to him a little bit earlier today and he said it's created a bit of chaos in his life now as he's not only trying to do his full time job out here playing on the PGA Tour, but now he's also got this Ryder cup hat and now on top of it, this possibility of also potentially playing his way in over the coming weeks. Now the few players that I've spoken to about this possibility are very much enthusiastic about the possibility of him being on that team and seeing said that they'll do whatever they can to take some of the work off of his plate to free him up just to be able to be a part of that lineup.
- [43:17]
Heather
Yeah, it's going to be fun to watch. Amy, thanks. Appreciate it. Amy Rogers for us up in Detroit. Be sure by the way to follow Golf Channel's coverage of the Rocket Classics tomorrow, round one, 3 o' clock Eastern Time. We look forward to that. Up next, Santoli with his midday word. Back after this. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joins us now with his midday word. And Mike, this feels like one of those days where where there's just not a catalyst on either side to be a decider where this market goes. Today it's going to have to put up with the price action, which is kind of lame.
- [44:10]
Steve Weiss
Right.
- [44:11]
Joe Terranova
And it's essentially a little bit of modest below the surface payback for a pretty decent run to the precipice of these new highs in the index. So yeah, negative breadth all day in video almost single handedly trying to hold the indexes together. I mean in general markets making new high highs are more bullish than bearish financials participating. You usually don't want to fade that. Even dull action in the indexes is net bullish. That being said, it wouldn't be surprising month end coming quarter end coming to see things flatten out a little bit into the non farm payrolls next Thursday. So who knows if that's going to hover. I definitely that we've worked ourselves into a position here where you've you've priced in some benign outcomes outcomes on the trade front and and presumably you know that economic resilience plus the Fed eventually cutting type story which maybe we can accommodate too much in the way of complication in the near term. But again markets kind of earn back the benefit of the doubt. You just have to watch out plays from here.
- [45:09]
Heather
Yeah and we will and we'll pay attention to all those headlines whether they're from Europe or here. Mike, thanks. I'll see you on closing bell. Mike Santoli, we'll do finals next. Sam.
- [46:01]
Joe Terranova
Are you following the Halftime Report podcast?
- [46:03]
Heather
What are you waiting for? Look for us in your favorite podcasting app.
- [46:07]
Joe Terranova
Follow the Halftime podcast now.
- [46:23]
Heather
See what happens with this market over the final stretch. We'll track it with Dan Greenhouse, Goldman, Sung Cho, Dan Ives, Lauren Goodwin, Courtney Garcia. We have Nvidia tracking for a new all time high. It's not that far away so we'll watch all of that and I hope you'll join me for the final stretch. Three o' clock Eastern Time. Final traits. Mr. Weiss, what you got Taiwan semi.
- [46:43]
Steve Weiss
You know it's on also a lot of these lists that are quality companies to buy. The future is extremely bright. They are the go to for semiconductor manufacturing and design.
- [46:54]
Heather
Who's got Amex?
- [46:55]
Jason Snipes
I do. So Amex breaking out above its 100 day moving average consumers spending and travel strong.
- [47:02]
Heather
Who's got amd?
- [47:04]
Carrie Farris
Nvidia is not the only game in town. I like AMD here. I like the partnership with us for GPUs and CPUs. Watch this stock.
- [47:12]
Heather
Where's yours Jason?
- [47:14]
Joe Terranova
Just took my final. You guys both picked AMD strong momentum right now. I will see Stevens Taiwan semi and.
- [47:22]
Steve Weiss
Raise him in Taiwan semis within one and a half percent of hit.
- [47:27]
Heather
So Nvidia needs to get to 153.13 I think is the number to watch today. It's not that far away. It's up more than 3% and we'll track that over the final stretch. I'll see you on the bell. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live. Weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [47:50]
Scott Wapner
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliate, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftimereportdisclaimer.
- [48:32]
Heather
Hey, I'm journalist Sam Sanders. I'm poet Saeed Jones. And I'm producer Zach Stafford. And we are the hosts of a podcast called Vibe Check. On Vibecheck. We talk about everything news, culture and entertainment and how it all feels. That's right, we talk about any and everything on our show, from real life issues like grief to music and movie critiques. And that barely scratches the surface. Yes, indeed. And it doesn't stop there. We have got a lot to say, so join our group, chat, come to life, follow and listen to Vibe Check. Wherever you get your podcasts.