CNBC Halftime Report: "The War and the Markets"

Date: March 12, 2026
Host: Scott Wapner
Guests/Investment Committee: Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Jim Lebenthal, Josh Brown, Leslie Picker (reporting)

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the chaotic state of financial markets amidst a rapidly evolving Middle East conflict, with crude oil spiking, stocks falling, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and growing uncertainty around both the duration and effects of the war. The Halftime Report’s investment committee discusses the binary nature of these risks for markets, sectors creating both peril and opportunity, the strain on private credit and financials, and tactical moves investors are making—or avoiding—in real time.

Key Themes and Discussion Points

1. The Binary Impact of the Strait of Hormuz and Oil (00:55–07:47)

• Crude oil has surged near 9%, with Brent at $100 and WTI at almost $95. This is largely due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz stemming from military conflict in the Middle East.

• Stock markets are broadly falling: All major indexes are red, down at least 1–2% at midday.

• The committee frames the market’s reaction as binary: if the Strait reopens, stocks rally; if not, the risk of a deeper correction rises.

  • Scott Wapner: “It's really that simple… Straits open, stocks up. Strait closed, stocks in trouble.” (07:04)
  • Joe Terranova: Cautions against trying to outsmart the tape: “Less is more right now. It's a moment to really just kind of step back, observe the environment...” (02:06)
  • Jim Lebenthal: Argues for staying invested, given underlying economic strengths, if the closure is brief: “If the straits are opened by the end of [the] month, I don't think enough damage will be done to upset the significant positive forces in the economy, in the markets...” (07:53)
  • Stephanie Link: Points out oil’s move at the pump is still within historical ranges: “Right now you're at $3.60 at the pump. That's actually at levels seen back in 2022 and 2023.” (04:36)

Notable Quotes

• Joe Terranova: “We are all, unfortunately, becoming oil traders.” (02:12)
• Josh Brown: “It is really a remarkable thing... the S&P as close to all-time highs as we are now, with as little conviction as we're seeing.” (09:38)

2. Market Internals, Sector Rotation, and Investor Behavior (07:53–16:28)

• Breadth and conviction are eroding: There’s a sense the market is way less confident despite recent highs.

• Energy is up (+27% YTD), but in very few names. Rotations are sharp, with traders hunting for war-impacted stories, such as fertilizers and chemical companies tied to the region.

• Retail investors losing momentum: J.P. Morgan’s retail radar shows purchases down 30%, signaling waning commitment from a key bull market cohort.

• Mega caps are still seeing inflows, but energy names are being trimmed or sold.

  • Stephanie Link: “I've been trimming SLB… it's prudent to take some gains. The stock… is up so much. The group is up so much. I wouldn't have a problem with anybody trimming energy at this point.” (16:24)

Notable Quotes

• Scott Wapner: “Opportunity finds itself in times of upset...” (13:14)
• Josh Brown: “Nimble traders are looking for opportunity... these stocks are going parabolic. But again they’re not big enough to offset the negatives.” (12:16)
• Stephanie Link: “War is scary and the headlines are really scary... there are these binary situations now that it's impossible to predict.” (15:56)

3. Financial Sector Under Pressure & Private Credit Gating (19:13–28:07)

• Financial sector is in a significant drawdown: The XLF is down 13%, Bank of America in a 17% drawdown, credit card companies even worse.

• Ed Yardeni's downgrade: Financials are to be underweighted until private credit and macro uncertainty clears.

• Private credit in the spotlight: Fundraising and earnings are pressured amid redemptions, with semi-liquid “evergreen” funds gating redemptions to avoid forced selling.

  • Josh Brown: “You basically have to have full faith in the portfolio managers because you have absolutely no transparency into the underlying holdings...” (21:04)
  • Leslie Picker: “About $500 billion of that $2.5 trillion is in semi-liquid… evergreen funds… The big focus today is the huge surge of redemptions… managers only fulfilled about half of those requests. The rest were gated per the fund agreements.” (24:54)

Notable Quotes

• Jim Lebenthal: “I don't think the credit crisis is systemic, but I do think this is a case where you need the right navigator picking the right [fund].” (21:00)
• Leslie Picker: “It's a reputational blemish for these funds that have been courting high net worth retail channel for its growth. But it's not necessarily reflective of a bigger systemic risk at this time.” (26:44)

4. Legislative Update: Housing & Institutional Buyers (28:07–29:31)

• Bipartisan housing affordability bill passes Senate, includes a ban on large institutional buyers purchasing single-family homes (if they already own 350+ units).
• Its fate in the House is uncertain despite bipartisan momentum and presidential support.

5. Committee Investment Moves & Positioning (31:10–36:19)

Stephanie Link

• Buys:
  • More Truist Financial (TFC): Value play, transformation, excess capital, potential for accelerated fees and buybacks. (32:10)
  • More Palo Alto Networks (PANW): Down 24% from highs, strong organic growth, synergy potential from acquisitions, attractive valuation. (33:44)
  • More IBM: Tech/AI themes. (33:44)
• Sells/Trims:
  • SLB/Energy: Trims position after a 40% gain (16:32–17:38)
  • Teradyne: Exits on 100% profit, shifts to Broadcom. (36:03)

Joe Terranova

• Buys/Sells: Sells Petrobras and Canadian Natural Resources, steps to the sidelines after being early on energy; emphasizes the dangers of headline-driven investing. (17:53–19:13)
• Notes about trading commodities in a binary environment: “I don't want to invest in that situation.” (19:05)

Josh Brown

• Highlights material names benefiting directly from the Hormuz closure (CF, Mosaic, Dow, Lyondell). (12:16)
• Cautions these are small positives relative to systemic drags.

6. Stock Spotlights and Final Trades (39:22–46:27)

Josh Brown’s Pick: Starbucks (SBUX) (39:29–41:53)

• Starbucks makes the “best stocks in the market” list due to its turnaround and margin expansion potential.
• Josh: “I think the stock can get back to 120… this hundred dollar level had been substantial overhead resistance. If it can stay there, I think that level turns into... support.” (40:51)
• Stephanie Link: Also touts SBUX as a top discretionary holding (41:12)

Stephanie Link

• Buys Netflix (NFLX): A “simpler story” post–Warner Bros bid. Earnings/revenue growth, resumed buyback, and historically fair multiple. (44:23)
• Sells GE Healthcare: Disappointed by China exposure—exits the position, reallocates to NFLX. (44:54)

Jim Lebenthal

• Promo for his new book, How to Ride the Subway: Getting Around on Wall Street and in Life (42:19–44:13)
• Sticks to diversified equity portfolios, not afraid of near-term volatility.

Final Trades (45:40–46:27)

• Josh Brown: Netflix (NFLX)
• Stephanie Link: Target (TGT) (“$8 in earnings power”)
• Jim Lebenthal: Transocean (RIG), citing merger with Valaris
• Joe Terranova: CME Group, bullish on exchanges/insurers within financials

Notable Quotes & Insights (Selected with Timestamps)

• Scott Wapner:

  • “It's really that simple… Straits open, stocks up. Strait closed, stocks in trouble.” (07:04)

• Stephanie Link:

  • “Markets do not like uncertainty and a war is maximum pain. We have no idea the details, we have no idea how long it's going to last.” (04:08)
  • “It's prudent to take some gains. I wouldn't have a problem with anybody trimming energy at this point.” (16:38)

• Josh Brown:

  • “Nimble traders are looking for opportunity… but they’re not big enough to offset the negatives.” (12:16)
  • “SBUX had a 10% traffic decline in 2024, but as of last quarter, US transactions grew across all day parts for the first time in eight quarters.” (40:34)

• Leslie Picker:

  • “$500 billion of [$2.5T] in private credit is in these semi-liquid... evergreen funds... The big focus is the huge surge of redemptions… managers only fulfilled about half.” (24:54)

Quick-Reference Timestamps

| Segment | Topic | Timestamps (approx.) | |---------|-------|----------------------| | Market turmoil, oil spike, Hormuz | 00:55–07:47 | | Market breadth, energy rally, investor flows | 07:47–16:28 | | Financials/private credit stress | 19:13–28:07 | | Legislative update: housing bill | 28:07–29:31 | | Committee moves & rationale | 31:10–36:19 | | Stock spotlights & final trades | 39:22–46:27 |

Tone & Takeaways

• The discussion is candid, urgent, occasionally skeptical, and reflective of an environment gripped by uncertainty and headline risk.
• The overarching message: Sit tight, remain diversified, and be cautious. Market volatility is high due to binary geopolitical risk. Sector and security selection matters—rotation is rapid, and correlations are breaking down. Even seasoned investors are relying on discipline and patience until more is known.

Listeners who missed the episode will understand:

• Why oil and the Strait of Hormuz are pivotal right now.
• How volatility is affecting all market segments, especially retail and financials.
• Which sectors and stocks are considered tactical plays—and which ones are being trimmed.
• The committee’s current philosophy: defensive, nimble, and prepared for more headlines, with a reluctance to make aggressive new bets.

For more in-depth analysis and full segments, visit CNBC Pro or tune in 12–1PM ET weekdays.