Tim Cook's Final Earnings Call as Apple CEO 7/30/26

Summary

CNBC Halftime Report

Episode: Tim Cook's Final Earnings Call as Apple CEO

Air Date: July 30, 2026
Host: Scott Wapner
Panel: Josh Brown, Brin Talk, Shannon Kosha, Malcolm Etheridge, Steve Liesman, Stephanie Link

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Overview

This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report covers a pivotal day in tech and market news, headlined by anticipation for Tim Cook’s (presumed) final earnings call as Apple CEO. The discussion dissects the ongoing tech rally, Microsoft’s surprisingly strong results and momentum, Apple’s continued ascent, and shifting dynamics among the top mega-cap tech names (“MAG7”). The episode also delves into key market movers, analyst reactions, interest rate uncertainty under the new Fed Chair, and the implications of current earnings for broader market sentiment.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Microsoft’s Blockbuster Quarter and AI Strategy

(00:41–09:09)

• Azure Growth Stuns the Street
  • Malcolm Etheridge: “I was shocked... I didn’t think we’d get 40% Azure growth. That is very solid.” (01:29)
  • Cloud revenue exceeded $100B for the first time.
  • Amy Hood (CFO): Expectation to remain cash flow positive in 2027, calming fears about over-extension.
• CapEx Moderation Is the Bull Case
  • Josh Brown: “They raised the lower end of the floor on capex but not the ceiling. This is… the number one reason this stock is up 15%.” (05:18)
• AI Momentum and Open Model
  • Brin Talk: “They stopped just using their filtering of Copilot… that’s why they doubled Copilot users from 15 to 30 million… Open source model swap is great for public companies… very solid for Microsoft.” (02:36)
  • Emphasis on being model-agnostic and letting customers use different AI models.
  • Azure growth: 43% this quarter, guided to 45% next.
• Comparison to Peers
  • Josh Brown draws contrast with Meta: “If Meta had done what Microsoft had done, which is maybe raise the floor but not raise the ceiling and then talk about immediate revenue from renting out capacity, Meta would be up 15%.” (05:18)
• Street’s Reaction
  • Scott Wapner: “Citi says this was what investors were hoping for. Goldman… meaningful step in reversing the stock’s multi-quarter underperformance.” (03:46)
  • Microsoft had been the worst MAG7 stock YTD before this report.

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2. Tech Market Rebound & Software Standouts

(09:47–14:51)

• Snowflake Breaks Out
  • Josh Brown details new position: “I think it’ll have a three handle in front of it shortly… What Snowflake was able to do was show not only are AI agents not going to cannibalize their business, it’s actually feeding usage trends.” (09:47)
  • Narrative shift: From “just another software company” to “AI infrastructure as a service.”
  • Added 616 net new customers, up 38% YoY.
• Palantir’s Valuation and Market Cap
  • Brin Talk: “This has been the original AI application story… I think it’s probably rangebound for a while … needs to capture momentum’s attention again.” (14:16)

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3. Meta’s Miss and Strategic Drift

(14:51–18:50)

• CapEx and Unclear Strategy
  • Stephanie Link (after selling her position): “The quarter was actually pretty good… The CapEx numbers… they continue to not have ROI evidence in anything other than their advertising business… My $250B capex number for 2027 is probably still too low.” (15:33)
  • Advertising model is strong, but no evidence that big CapEx spend on AI, metaverse, etc., is paying off.
• Lack of Margin Leverage
  • Stephanie Link: “27% revenue growth, but operating margins fell 1200 basis points… That was a lot worse than expected.” (18:03)

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4. Apple’s Anticipated Earnings (Tim Cook’s Last Call)

(18:56–21:41)

• Numbers & Momentum
  • Josh Brown: “Consensus expectations right now have revenue $108.8B… 16% YoY growth. EPS of $1.88… 19.8% YoY. The knock on Apple… not growing? No, they’re literally growing.” (19:31)
  • “Momentum on the company’s AI story—lowest cost from a CapEx standpoint, highest profitability because it’s on device.”
  • “iOS ecosystem, the App Store becomes the preeminent way that the global consumer accesses AI. They will sit in the middle of every single monetization event across thousands of apps.” (19:31)
• Cook’s Legacy
  • Scott Wapner: “Stock up 2,370% under Tim Cook… swan song call this evening.” (21:30)
  • Josh Brown: “John Turner is waiting in the wings. Product guy, hardware guy.” (21:37)

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5. Amazon & Cloud Wars Preview

(21:41–24:40)

• Cloud Competition Focus
  • Malcolm Etheridge: “AWS I would assume has a little bit better margins… Amazon hasn’t… catered to larger enterprise like Microsoft but has been way more open with… models they allow on platform.” (22:24)
  • Josh Brown: “The only two numbers AWS: above or below consensus. CapEx: 200B or not.” (23:53)
  • Brin Talk: “AI infrastructure is pushing through to their cloud business… AWS the elephant in the room, I think does better than that 200B.” (23:22)
• Consensus: Cloud and CapEx the Only Metrics That Matter

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6. Market Uncertainty: New Fed Chair in the Spotlight

(24:40–30:46)

• Fed Communication Breaks Down
  • Steve Liesman: “I never listened so hard and heard so little. It was a basic failure or basic unwillingness to provide details about basic central banking.” (25:49)
  • “Their fear here is that Kevin Warsh is too beholden to President Donald Trump… won’t say the words about raising rates.” (26:25)
  • Multiple opinions and forecasts from banks highlight market confusion and risk of overreaction.
  • Steve Liesman: “Markets are fine with uncertainty. They just charge you more for it.” (28:32)
  • Bond yields remain elevated—suggesting a trust deficit between the Fed and investors.

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7. Josh Brown’s Stock Moves & Market Opportunities

Notable Segments:

• Delta Airlines (33:05)
  • “About 8% below 52wk high… This is the very strongest part of consumer spending is travel. Delta is effectively focused on the upper end… tons of pricing power. I think this gets to $100.” (33:05)
• Reddit Trade (34:31)
  • “Most of this business is advertising… Reddit’s gonna get its share. They have a deal with OpenAI, Google for Gemini, and are a key citation source for all LLM use. Lawsuit with Anthropic likely ends in more revenue.” (34:31)
• ES (Utility, Eversource) (39:34)
  • “New name… It’s been lagging but now it’s natural gas and electricity focused. 16x forward earnings, 4.2% yield, looks to break out.” (39:34)

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8. Other Active Trades: Private Credit, SoFi, CBRE, Live Nation

Quick Hits:

• KKR (42:09): Brin Talk holding, sentiment around private credit still negative, slow fundraising.
• SoFi (43:37): Malcolm Etheridge points to stellar 40% revenue growth; market’s perception stuck in the past.
• CBRE (44:12): Brin says “should be at 170 stock,” referencing consistent growth.
• Live Nation (44:32): Josh Brown: “Bulletproof… best operator in the space. I don’t worry about earnings reports at all.”
• Apple, Amazon remain the main focus for upcoming sessions.

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Notable Quotes

• Josh Brown (on Microsoft’s quarter):
  “Raising the floor of the capex range without raising the ceiling is the number one reason this stock is up 15%.” (05:18)

• Shannon Kosha (on Microsoft-OpenAI):
  “The most important thing here is easing those concerns on OpenAI concentration and the fact that 90% of their cloud revenue is coming from non-frontier model clients.” (04:17)

• Stephanie Link (on Meta):
  “They continue to not have ROI evidence in anything other than their advertising business… and we have no details on... monetizing compute. So the unknowns are just too much for me.” (15:33)

• Steve Liesman (on Fed leadership):
  “I never listened so hard and heard so little.” (25:49)

• Josh Brown (on Apple’s positioning):
  “They will sit in the middle of every single monetization event that happens across thousands of apps all trying to deliver AI. You're paying Apple almost no matter what.” (19:31)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Microsoft Earnings and Market Impact: 00:41–09:09
• Snowflake & Software Rebound: 09:47–14:51
• Palantir, Meta Reactions: 14:51–18:50
• Apple Earnings Preview & Tim Cook Farewell: 18:56–21:41
• Amazon & Cloud Market Preview: 21:41–24:40
• Fed Chair Warsh and Market Uncertainty: 24:40–30:46
• Josh Brown’s Trades (Delta, Reddit): 33:05–35:56
• Eversource (ES) Stock Spotlight: 39:34–41:42
• Private Credit, SoFi, CBRE: 42:09–44:27
• Live Nation and Miscellaneous: 44:32–45:36

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Memorable Moments

• Josh Brown’s analogy: “It’s not a supermarket. The [Apple] prices remain elevated and the profitability surges. I just tell the truth on this show.” (19:31)
• Panel’s playful debate about the best sandwiches (“subs”) in the market, closing on a lighter note before the outro. (46:09)

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Conclusion

This episode deftly tracks tech’s ongoing rebound, zeroes in on operational discipline in big tech earnings, and showcases the market’s razor focus on cloud and AI infrastructure. It contextualizes Tim Cook’s legacy and Apple’s future, candidly examines Meta’s investment uncertainty, and spotlights shifting sentiment as the market grapples with interest rate ambiguity. High-level trading insights and sharp commentary deliver actionable context for both institutional and retail investors—in real time.

Transcript

[Commercial Announcer]

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[Brin Talk]

The board recommends approving regarding that seat on the committee.

[Steve Liesman]

We're providing quarterly earnings.

[Scott Wapner]

Every day shareholders meet to discuss important matters about the companies you invest in. Now you can easily make your voice heard. Vanguard Investor Choice gives you a say in the companies you invest in. With just a few taps, you can set your proxy voting preference for your index funds. Visit vanguard.com investorchoice to learn. Vanguard investors own shares of our index funds which own shares of the companies they invest in. Available for Vanguard index funds that participate in investor choice. Vanguard Marketing Corporation Distributor I'm Scott Wapner

and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. I appreciate you guys. Thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour. The tech rebound as Microsoft and momentum get a big bounce today. Trading the biggest movers and getting set up for Apple earnings and ot. Joining me for the hour today, Josh Brown. Bring talking to Shannon Kosha and Malcolm Etheridge. Check the markets getting a nice bounce today obviously from NASDAQ. It's leading the way two and a quarter percent. Momentum's having a big rebound. Microsoft's best day since October of 2008. Malcolm after that beat and raise and did it need that right?

[Malcolm Etheridge]

I got to be honest, I was shocked at the markets. I was, I was shocked by the earnings. First and foremost I thought that we would get decent growth but I didn't think we'd get 40% Azure growth. That is very solid. And we got an answer to the question that we've been asking all this time. Is Microsoft actually ready for the comeback because they've been punished for basically the last year. They've taken their medicine. They've consolidated copilot everything else around AI and I think the market is basically saying we are buying your capex. We may not be buying the capex from Alphabet and others that I'm sure we'll talk about today. But Microsoft specifically, we like what we see and we're going to reward you for it.

[Scott Wapner]

Cloud revenue exceeded hundred billion dollars Brin for the very first time ever, there were questions about whether Microsoft would go cash flow negative. Amy Hood said they expect to remain cash flow positive in the 2027 fiscal year. CNBC's Kate Rooney who covers the company as you know, closer than anybody here Quote Satya Nadella was able to thread the needle around CapEx this quarter. They kind of knocked the COVID off the ball when some were figuring that they were going to be benched.

[Brin Talk]

That was me like yesterday we the stock chart looks terrible. I did not have good expectations. I've talked about my frustration with with Copilot. I think to me what was so exciting, I've never been so excited to have Microsoft's number. I mean the Nasdaq's went up 2%. It's so good for the industry because they're saying we hear you loud and clear. We're going to be free cash flow positive. Azure is ramping up. I mean that 43, 43 was big because they got, they got really tattooed if they were 39 but 40 and Amy said that's ramping up. To me two things that I thought were critical last quarter they went open model they stopped just using their filtering of copilot of open air put quad in there. I think that's why they doubled the copilot from 15 to 30 million. And he also said very clearly he said you want to make sure that any model is swappable. And so I think this open source model swap, this is great for public companies. I don't think it's so great for OpenAI but it's very solid for Microsoft and if it breaks above that 200 day I think you could put a floor in the stock and kind of build up higher. So I switched my position from yesterday.

[Scott Wapner]

Shan the analyst community as you would expect is is pretty positive, right? The Citi says this was what investors were hoping for. Goldman says a meaningful step in reversing the stock's multi quarter period of underperformance. They raised their price target to 640 Barclays. We see investors revisiting Microsoft shares noteworthy that Microsoft had been the worst MAG7 stock year to date going into this print. Obviously this is a much different conversation today than yesterday.

[Shannon Kosha]

Right. And it comes at a time when you're also seeing some of this overhang or flow through from software. That software versus semi trade getting some momentum over the course of the last several weeks. And so you know, while Microsoft clearly has a much larger footprint than just software, they have that portion of their business I think most importantly Scott is that a month ago, six weeks ago we were talking about the potential for Space X, Open AI and Anthropic to potentially be Microsoft, to be a source of funds potentially for some of these companies. OpenAI in particular given the perception of the tight relationship between these two and so the most important thing here is easing those concerns on open air concentration and the fact that 90% of their cloud revenue is coming from non frontier model clients customers that, that this is exactly the type of print they needed.

[Scott Wapner]

This just what the doctor ordered for this trade right now as it's being questions obviously it's idiosyncratic for one versus the next and we're going to get to the next in a moment. But what does this mean you for. For this trade overall?

[Josh Brown]

Well, I'll bridge the gap. The thing that Microsoft did that I think was the most important frankly from my perspective, they raised the lower end of the floor on capex but not the ceiling. This is, this is, look, they said cash flow positive in 2027. Yeah, we like that. To Malcolm's point, the growth rate was there. It's not growing nearly as fast as Google, but it's a much larger base. Good enough. But raising the floor of the capex range without raising the ceiling is the number one reason this stock is up 15% and I know we're going to get get into Meta in a second. Meta could be up 15% too. All they had to do was say they're going to rent compute out instead. Instead they, they were reticent about bringing in revenue today for all that compute capacity they had and they want to stick to their guns on all oh, we're still building as yet unnamed tools for businesses. Okay, sure you are. We still haven't seen it quarter after quarter. If Metta had done what Microsoft had done, which is maybe raise the floor but not raise the ceiling and then talk about immediate revenue from renting out capacity, matter would be up 15% that

[Brin Talk]

it can't be up. They can't say that they don't have a cloud business. And to me your cabinet is spot on. But no, no, hold on. Your CapEx is spot on. The other contribution, that 43% Azure is big and Amy said it's only going to start getting bigger. They moved it up to 45. And so I think those two things are like this company is cooking and then the copilot to me is, is really important also because that user base that uses Microsoft 365 like us want to have our data in their ecosystem but want that stuff to work.

[Josh Brown]

Imagine an alternate universe though where they come out and say actually for the balance of 26 capex will be 15 billion higher than what we said last quarter. The Stock is down 6% today. I'm telling you, I'm telling You that's what happens. Slowly but surely, each of these companies is getting religion on yes, we'll. Except for matter, yes, we'll deliver revenue immediately and we're not going to keep accelerating the rate at which we take the ceiling of spending.

[Malcolm Etheridge]

When your CFO reads the room and sees how negatively their competition was impacted by going free cash flow negative and then coming out and reaffirming we plan to stay free cash flow positive through next fiscal year, that also obviously has an impact on how the Street.

[Scott Wapner]

I think that's an intelligent observation. A really good point, frankly, that you make like the ability to read the room, understand where the environment and the narrative is. I haven't heard that point made yet and I think it's a sharp one to make here. And I think part of the stock reaction is probably reflective of the very sentiment in which you just suggested. Right. The ability to understand kind of where we are in this story and how maybe a little bit of the narrative is shifting towards how you're spending, where you're spending from how much you're draining your free cash flow. Are you tapping the debt market? That's why the markets have been fixated on CDS for these companies.

[Josh Brown]

But they also, they made a nod. So talk about reading the room. You could tell they're reading all the same message boards as everyone else because they said they want to lengthen the useful life of office and data center buildings to 25 years from 15. Recall all the conversation about depreciation schedules and what is the actual useful life of all of the facilities we're building, the chips we're stockpiling, they're listening. And I think Malcolm made a really good point, like they are paying attention to the dialogue and they're responding in their actions.

[Scott Wapner]

It's a contrast in some respects at times to what we've heard from a lot of the narrative has been we've got blinders on towards what the street is suggesting we need to do or what the investment community is suggesting that we need to do. We're going to do what we think we're going to do and if you don't like it, that's tough on you. This was maybe a case where it's like, we hear you and we'll react in kind. Now, software is mixed after this report. Oracle's up big. The cyber names have been up. Salesforce, however, is lower. Snowflake is higher. And I did that on purpose because we do have a trade alert that this man next to me, Josh Brown, bought Snowflake.

[Josh Brown]

I Did. It's incredible. You're like hosting the show and producing in real time. All right, we do. Snowflake is a new position for me and basically there's a technical breakout happening here, but it's on the back of an incredible earnings report from May. And I think when they report they're a late reporter. When they report in August, later on, one of the final reports that we'll get for this quarter, I think there's going to be follow through. Basically what happened on that May call and you see the stock price spiking. It gave almost nothing back. That's a huge gap up. If we were looking at candlesticks, did not get back into the gap. Low volume retest. This is textbook. And now it's breaking above that level again. I think it'll have a three handle in front of it shortly. What Snowflake was able to do was show not only are AI agents not going to cannibalize their business, it's actually feeding usage trends for in my view, their most important product, which formerly was known as Cortex code, they changed the name because every customer says Coco. So now it's Coco. And they formally changed Snowflake, Cocoa and Coco, quite frankly, by the end of this year is going to be the word on everyone's lips that talks about actual usage of the link AI in the data environment. So Snowflake is our data warehouse that is now becoming a leading platform for agentic work being done by enterprise customers. They don't need to move the data. They don't need to have fragmented workflows with data in all different places. Companies collaborating with other companies. The data lives in the clean room. It never has to leave. And the AI layer, pick your LLM, whatever you want to plug, plug in is operating directly in Snowflake's environment and feeding increased usage. They blew the doors off the earnings estimate last, last time. They blew the doors off the revenue estimate. And I think what the stock price is telling you, people are going to stop treating this like another software company.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay.

[Josh Brown]

They're going to start treating it like AI infrastructure as a service.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, I'm glad, I'm glad you went exactly there. So the Stock is up 34% year to date. This is one of those names that got hit, I think in part to your point of everything is a loser in the software space. And it took a minute for the company to prove or at least get the word out that no, no, no, we're not that worth this and can be even better than this. And that's why the stock has been rewarded.

[Brin Talk]

And I think that if you look at IGV as a basket and forget the weightings just as a, a sentiment indicator when IGV hit that 74 bucks back in mid April, it is continuing to build higher lows, higher lows, higher lows. And I think this is exactly right. The snowflakes, the Microsoft we'll see about Salesforce jury's out on that one. But the basket I think we're going to continue to see dispersion among these names. I think that's incredibly good for these software companies. Microsoft clearly helping a snowflake all so I think today of showing that dispersion Oracle could could go right back down because of their link to open AI. But I do think it's a good time to look at these individual companies like a snowflake or Microsoft or just

[Josh Brown]

IGV as a stock was down to Scott's point. This, this Stock was down 22% going into the May print and has completely reversed. They talked about adding 616net new customers which was up 38% year over year. Existing customers spending much more on platform and everything that's coming out on the agent side is going to feed increased usage in the data warehouse. If they now can be such a critical part of that infrastructure that the data doesn't have to leave and the companies are importing workflows directly into into that warehouse, we're not going to talk about this company as a software company for very much longer. And I think that's that narrative shift is reflected in the chart. I can't wait to hear what they have to say in the next earnings call.

[Scott Wapner]

Eyes of the day, better than 5% now. And all of that is just continuing to help the Nasdaq which is up better than 2 1/2% now, better than 600 point rebound for the Nasdaq. So the market's listening obviously Palantir, speaking of software got reiterated today a buy Rosenblatt to 25 is the target. The quibble on this has always been the valuation. It's a much loved company for where their growth obviously is. But people have had issues with the valuation, haven't they?

[Brin Talk]

Yeah, and the valuation is pretty much the market cap has pretty much got cut in half. And so I think that this ultimately has been the original AI application story. They've been doing AI forever. They're model neutral once again model neutral company. And so I think that this company with Alex Karp and his team will continue to accelerate. But I just Think you have to capture that momentum's attention because a lot of those investors have left or those traders have left the building. So I love the company but I think right here it's probably rangebound for a while because it's not going to go back to where it was trading a year and a half ago anytime soon.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, so then there's meta. Right, let's get to that now. 13, 14 minutes in and we get to what is another stock of the day but for all the wrong reasons. It's down near 9% weaker revenue guy. They narrowed their CapEx guidance, they missed on earnings, cash flow down and on and on and on and on. No one owns it here but Stephanie Link owns it and she joins us now, which is interesting because you were with me on closing bell yesterday and I asked you directly at the very end of our conversation, I know you recall that if it goes down, are you a buyer? And there was some dead air for a moment before you answered and now there's dead stock in your book because you sold it all the rest.

[Stephanie Link]

Right, right, right, I did. And I sold half of my position about a month ago, frustrated about the capex numbers and rumors about an equity offering, more debt offering, etc. I feel the exact same way today and I don't want to hold on to this stock because I think it is dead, dead money for a while and it's not, has nothing really to do with the quarter. Scott, the quarter was actually pretty good and we talked about that yesterday. The quarter wasn't real news, it was the CapEx numbers and they continue to not have ROI evidence in anything other than their advertising business and they continue to spend and honestly the numbers imply that they are going to continue to aggressively, massively spend. I think my $250 billion capex number for 2027 is probably too low and they hinted on the call those numbers are going to continue into 2028 and, and the problem is we have no details. There was no, we had no details on the developer APIs on, on consumer and business agents on monetizing compute. So the unknowns are just too much for me, you know, minus it's un fortunate because the company grew revenues 27% and they had ad impressions up 14% and pricing up 12. So like the fundamentals of the advertising business is good but they need to do other things and we just don't have evidence that we're not, not anywhere close to evidence of seeing any kind of other in their revenue line.

[Scott Wapner]

No one, you know, I shouldn't say no one. Very few analysts who cover this story or are ready to give up the ship. I mean, you do have a number of price target cuts today. City to 800, Barclays to 780. Again, we're at 530. 530 bucks today. The lowest price targets on the list today are both Wells and JPM, which come down to 640. Almost everybody on this list is either remaining outperform, reiterating by. Or reiterating overweight almost to, to an analyst. J.P. morgan's remaining neutral. So people aren't willing, Steph, to quite give up on this story. Maybe they have a little more of a patience level at this point than you do.

[Stephanie Link]

Yeah, well, the stock is trading at 14 times earnings. It's not, it's not expensive at all. But what are you getting for that? You know, you're getting the advertising business, which is really good.

[Brandon Gomez]

But what.

[Stephanie Link]

Also you're not, you're not getting operating margin leverage and operating leverage. You know, we talk about that all the time. They had 27. I'm sorry. Yeah, 27% revenue growth. But they had operating margins, fell 1200 basis points. Now, that was a lot worse than expected. Double the expectations. And so therefore that's why they missed the number. So you want to own companies where actually margins are going higher along with that revenue. And I just don't see those opportunities, operating margin settling out anytime soon. Now. I don't think there's a lot of downside to the stock. I just think it's dead money and there's an opportunity cost. And I think I feel even better today about the beneficiaries, the food chain of AI and those companies. And those stocks have gotten hit hard. And I'm redeploying that money from Metta into those names.

[Scott Wapner]

Talk to you soon. Thanks for being with us, Steph. I'll see you soon as well. That's Stephanie with an update on that. And then there's Apple.

[Steve Liesman]

Right.

[Scott Wapner]

Reports in over time. Stock's been on a tear as all of you know. 15% in a month briefly hit 5 trillion in market cap. And this man right here has been hot on this name for, for many months. July 7 said it could go to. It was going to 400, but it was months before that where he said this was the stock. This was the name that you need to focus on. This is the name of the Mag7 he said to own for the second half. It's like a sleeping giant hidden in plain sight. Everyone's been looking past it not you and for good reason.

[Josh Brown]

Okay, so let's, let's discuss the negatives first. The price hikes, they're actually positives. You know what ends up happening when the component prices go down or the efficiency of how much you, how much of these materials you have actually need becomes better. It's not like they go and lower the prices. It's not, it's not a supermarket. The prices remain elevated and the profitability surges. I know you don't like to hear that if you're about to upgrade your iPhone. I just tell the truth on this show. So that's number one. That's the negative. The consensus expectations right now have revenue 108.8 billion. That would be a 16% year over year growth number. Top line earnings per share $1.88. That would be 19.8%. On the bottom line, the knock on Apple for the last few quarters. They're not growing that grow. No, they literally. They're growing like that's throw that out. Now. You're not getting a discount on the stock because everybody else knows that too. But you have the momentum here on two fronts. Number one on the fundamental growth, but more importantly the momentum on the company's AI story being the lowest cost from a Capex standpoint and quite possibly the highest profitability because it's on device. The devices are already in all of our hands. All they have to do is figure out the formula to turn it on. And all of a sudden the iOS ecosystem, the app Store becomes the preeminent way that the global consumer accesses AI. They will sit in the middle of every single monetization event that happens across thousands of apps all trying to deliver AI. You're paying Apple almost no matter what. It's two and a half billion installed devices around the world and growing. If the iPhone 18 is as good or better than the 17, forget about it. Lights out. That's how I get to 400.

[Scott Wapner]

Tim Cook's last conference call, we think as CEO. So it'll be a real passage. Wish him well moment.

[Josh Brown]

We wish him well. But John Turner is waiting in the wings. Product guy, hardware guy.

[Scott Wapner]

Hardware guy stock up 2,370% under Tim Cook. So it's an always heavily attended conference call and people will be certainly listening for whatever Tim Cook has to say on what, what we think is his swansong call. This evening. Amazon reporting as well. Not to be forgotten. It's looking to break a seven day losing streak that is the longest since a nine day slide in February. Don't have to tell you that's always a key. They own 50% of the cloud market. So if you got good cloud from Microsoft, what do you think you're going to get here? What does the acceleration of AWB look like? Does Capex go up? All questions that I'm sure Malcolm, you're thinking about tonight, right?

[Malcolm Etheridge]

Yes, but I'm less concerned honestly after seeing the Street's reaction to what Microsoft turned in because AWS I would assume has a little bit better margins too when you consider how they've started to turn Trainium on and start to improve what they're able to turn around from their chipset. And so I would imagine Amazon's numbers would look better from a growth perspective. Also, Amazon hasn't actually been catering to the larger enterprise customer the way that Microsoft has. They've actually been way more open with the different models that they allow on the platform and such. So if Brent is right, adding the ability to now access Codex in addition to Anthropic is what's driving Microsoft tire than I have to imagine.

[Josh Brown]

31% is the US number. Do they beat it?

[Malcolm Etheridge]

I think so because the open architecture is what's helping Microsoft and it has to be accretive to Amazon even more so and that's really what I think is going to tell the story for tonight.

[Josh Brown]

So I think so.

[Brin Talk]

It's not random that cloud, that Google Cloud grew 85%, that Azure grew 43. The AI infrastructure is pushing through to their cloud business and so AWS obviously the elephant in the room I think does better than that 200 billion in

[Josh Brown]

capex is the current expectation. Do they take it up or do they calm down?

[Scott Wapner]

What do you think?

[Josh Brown]

I mean I don't think numbers that

[Brin Talk]

matter I don't take any hood's playbook by the way and do what you

[Scott Wapner]

said the low read the room there's

[Josh Brown]

only two is only two numbers that matter for Amazon I'll boil forget about retail, it's grocery store nobody cares. The only number that the only two numbers AWS above or below consensus and by the way consensus may not be good enough.

[Steve Liesman]

Right?

[Josh Brown]

Is that and 200 billion is it 220?

[Malcolm Etheridge]

I don't think they also don't think it matters if they do. Right. Because we're looking at Microsoft, Google Cloud and then Azure. Sorry and then aws which are the three that do obviously have a place to use all of this spending that they've been doing all this time. It's Meta and Oracle and others that we're looking at and saying for what. So I think even if they did tell us that the number is going up to 10 to 20, they still wouldn't be punished nearly the same unless they tell us something about free cash flow that the street.

[Scott Wapner]

I mentioned some of the, you know, analysts commentary around all of these names that have either reported or will in the hours ahead. If there were analyst reports and calls today on Fed Chair Wars's news conference yesterday, what would they be reiterating? Neutral. Maybe some downgrades, frankly, because the commentary isn't great. Isn't great. Senior economics reporter Steve Liesman joins us now. That's just the way it is. You know, Roger Ferguson was on our air earlier this morning, said, quote, a little confusion on what happens next. Greg ip writing an article that everybody's talking about today, citing Chair Warsh's contradictions, his word, not mine on the movements that we've seen in bond yields, the ftse. Kevin was confusing markets. Anna Wong, Wash. Managed to say a lot without saying anything. Reuters Conflicting signals from WARSHIP fueled volatility in the treasury market. Ed Yardeni, Wash. Fails his first credibility test. So you were in the room. You asked a question. What, what do you think of Those reviews of Mr. Warsh's performance yesterday and what the markets are left with?

[Steve Liesman]

I think they're consonant with what else I have read, Scott, and consonant with what I observed. My initial observation after walking out of there was I never listened so hard and heard so little. It was a basic failure or basic unwillingness to provide details about basic central banking. When you say my question was about the message he was getting from markets, remember, this is a chairman who has said he wants to be quiet so that the market can tell him, sort of guide him where to go. And so I said, what's the market telling you? And he kind of mostly declined to answer that, except to say that the high yields look like they were they were perhaps a sign of a better growth out there. I think that one of the last things you said, Scott, is where the biggest concern is that this is a credibility problem. What people are saying to me off the record and won't say on the record is that their fear here is that Kevin Warsh is too beholden to President Donald Trump and won't say the words about raising rates. For that reason, the market is pricing in or had been pricing in a 99% probability of a rate hike. And Kevin Warsh won't acknowledge what he has said is one of the most important signals to him, which is the idea of what the market is saying, and that's become a problem. And so every Fed chairman is tested by the markets. And yesterday when you saw a really epic sell off in the 30 year bond, he kind of, he failed that test.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, I mean it's, it's the consequence frankly of what happens when the, you know, what is deemed to be a bold and line and Sharpie if you will, between the White House and the Federal Reserve becomes more of a dotted line, if not a completely broken one where, you know, whether what you suggest is true or not remains to be seen and will be debated obviously in the months and years of Mr. Warsh's term ahead. The other issue is it's clear to me that Wall street is confused today. Morgan Stanley says the Fed's going to remain on hold this year. JP Morgan says we're pulling forward our rate, our next rate hike from second half of 27 to December of this year. Barclays maintaining current policy. Deutsche baseline remains that the Fed raises rates by 50 this year. So the street doesn't know what to make of this at all. And maybe the treasury market in many respects is going to be forced to overreact to things that, things that it doesn't really have clarity on.

[Steve Liesman]

So all of that is actually okay. I don't think it's a big deal that there are different investment banks with different views of where the Fed is going and why. But the question is the why that people don't have anything really to base their question call on what Kevin Warshaw and the Fed will do and the reason for it. That's what's missing. The more important thing here, Scott, I think is to look at what the 30 year told you, what gold told you, what the dollar told you. All of that doubted or suggests. There's a big gap between Kevin Warsh's very strong pronouncements of the Fed will deliver price stability and how it's to going going to deliver it. And they doubt that he is as strong as he suggested he is on delivering price stability. And so markets are fine with uncertainty. Scott, we've talked about this a lot and you can talk to your traders around the, around the table there. They just charge you more for it. So we're down to a fundamental question. Is this a better way to run monetary policy? And the initial overnight trade is that it was not the stock market's going to do, a stock market is going to do, but it's the bond market. And I think a key thing for me was, is watching that the yields that were set yesterday in the heat of the moment of war speaking remain today. It's not like they woke up today and said we misunderstood Kevin. No, we got him and we doubt his ability to how confident we could be in him fighting inflation and doing the thing that we care most about.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, yeah. The 30 year, obviously, when we were having a conversation with, you know, you and Jeffrey, Eclipse 520 for the first time since like, oh, seven or eight,

[Steve Liesman]

whatever, was two things to think about, Scott, and I'll let you go here. But one is that this is a lot like the bond market reaction when they thought Trump was going to fire Powell. So that's right. Right there. It's an independence question. That's one. The other way to look, look at it is take the bond and stock market reaction together. It's similar to the Liberation Day tariff reaction. So this was a real shock to the market yesterday. At least the magnitude of the reaction in the bond market that's remained even though stocks look like they've come back.

[Scott Wapner]

Gundlock, by the way, thinks he got the message. I really do believe that as a consequence of the commentary and reading the tea leaves of what was said in the room and by the Fed chair, I think they'll probably hike in September, particularly if the yield curve keeps steepening. So we'll watch all that, Steve. Thanks as always, Steve Liesman. Coming up, Josh has more moves to tell you about and we will do that after the break.

[Brin Talk]

Hmm.

[Julia Boorstin]

Interesting.

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Wait, guys, that's a great idea.

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[Scott Wapner]

A couple more moves to tell you about from Josh Brown. One in a stock that's had a lot of momentum on the way up. One that's been disappointing on the way down. So the thought process is probably different on each of those. Delta, you bought it.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah. So we've been spotlighting this name here on the air and at CNBC Pro as the best stock in the market. It's earned a spot on that list, stayed on that list. Other than the oil price spike in March, this last oil price spike, they didn't even bother really selling the name off. And I looked at that strength and I just said, you know what, I need to get in right here. So I'm paying up a little bit from where we first started talking about it. But I'm very comfortable with the fact that it's weathered this recent oil price spike and it resumed the rally almost immediately. So you have a name that's about 8% below its 52 week high. RSI at 54. We all know the fundamentals story. This is the very strongest part of consumer spending is travel. And Delta is effectively focused on the upper end of the K where they really have no issues with demand or anything like that. Tons of pricing power. July 23rd, which was I think last Thursday was the busiest day for commercial airlines lines in United States history. 153,000 flights were tracked. It's the most that we've never seen. The amount of demand and activity for travel that we're seeing right now. And Delta is the best player in the space. So I think this gets to 100 bucks. I do have a stop loss in but I feel pretty good about it.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, so Delta's up 26% year to date, down 7% in a couple of months. Reddit is the other one that you bought. You used to own this, didn't you?

[Josh Brown]

I've traded this before. This is also a trade they report tonight at 4:30. So if you are not the type of person that can weather an instant negative reaction the day you buy a stock, please stay far away from it. But I'm gully like that so I'm long. We'll see what happens. The story on Reddit is very simple. The last quarter he did 663 million in revenue which was up 69. Nice. 69%. Revenue was up 74%. Also very nice. But they beat the earnings number by 63%. They shocked the street and I think it brought new eyeballs to the story. Most of this business is advertising and if you listen to what Google said and you listen to what Meta said, you know the ad business is on fire and Reddit's gonna get its share. But then they've got the data data licensing business. They have a deal in place with OpenAI, they have a deal in place with Google for Gemini and Reddit is one of the most important citation sources for all LLM use. They're in a lawsuit right now with Anthropic. They claim that Claude was trained on Reddit and is using Reddit for inference without paying them. We all know how that lawsuit's going to end. Won't be in a court case. It'll probably be with the settlement and they'll get a new customer in the form of Anthropic. So again, earnings tonight. Anything can happen. But I do like the setup and I am long.

[Scott Wapner]

CEOs on Squawk tomorrow morning, 8:40. It's an exclusive so.

[Steve Liesman]

Right.

[Josh Brown]

He wouldn't schedule that if he was about to blow up the quarter. My personal opinion during the TV business, you know better.

[Scott Wapner]

You'll get the interview tomorrow morning and don't miss it on Squawk. We'll take a break. We'll come back. We do have some stocks on the move. I think we have best stocks in the market as well coming up. So don't go away.

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[Stephanie Link]

confident that you could do something that

[Julia Boorstin]

hadn't been done before?

[Scott Wapner]

I have no fear of failure.

[Julia Boorstin]

Trailblazing women, changing the game.

[Brin Talk]

One of my favorite pieces of advice, Think about what your boss's boss needs.

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[Julia Boorstin]

Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and power players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.

[Brandon Gomez]

Welcome back to halftime. I'm Brandon Gomez with your CNBC News update. A Georgia father is being sentenced after his son used a gun he gave him to kill four people at the height of school he attended. Colin Gray was convicted of second degree murder, involuntary manslaughter and other charges. Prosecutors say he gave his son the rifle as a Christmas gift and failed to secure it. Despite warnings about the teen's mental health, victims families urged the judge to impose the maximum sentence. And the death toll from Japan's powerful earthquake has risen to 34, with rescuers still searching for survivors. The magnitude 6.8 quake damaged homes, power lines and a shopping center. About 9,000 people are in evacuation centers as officials work to keep residents cool and safe in extreme heat. And the NBA will not play preseason games in the Middle east this year for the first time in five years, according to espn. The decision comes amid the US Iran war and regional instability. The league had discussed games in Abu Dhabi and possibly Qatar, but those plans were never truly finalized. More HALFTIME REPORT after this break.

[Scott Wapner]

It's.

[Steve Liesman]

We're back.

[Scott Wapner]

Best stocks in the market according to Josh Brown. The spotlight today is on the ticker symbol. Es.

[Josh Brown]

Yeah, right. So a new name. We haven't talked about it before. It's in the utilities group. It has been lagging its own sector for a very long time. It's only up 1% annually versus the group is up about 9% annually over the last three years, led by companies like Duke and Excel and all the names that you know. You don't know this name because they were involved in this wind energy fiasco that they finally offloaded and they had a water utility. They offloaded and they've streamlined and now it's basically natural gas transmission and electricity. Shannon probably paid pays them because it is Connecticut, New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Do I have that right? Are you a customer?

[Shannon Kosha]

I'm a customer for sure.

[Josh Brown]

All right.

[Shannon Kosha]

Yeah.

[Josh Brown]

See? See, I know what I'm doing here.

[Malcolm Etheridge]

All right.

[Josh Brown]

Here's the deal, plain and simple. Give me the chart one more time. Give me a one year. I don't believe in triple tops.

[Scott Wapner]

It's a 52 week high today.

[Josh Brown]

It is Tuesday.

[Scott Wapner]

On Tuesday it is.

[Josh Brown]

I don't Believe in triple tops. I just don't. It's not that it's impossible for the stock fall from here. In my experience it's improbable. I think a breakout is more likely. Earnings are tonight. The conference call won't be till tomorrow morning. I don't know why they do it that way. Maybe Shannon could explain. It's some sort of bizarre New England thing. But in the end they're in the right space. You're paying 16 times forward earnings with a 4.2% dividend yield. You've got the RSI right. Sort of like toward the, the upper end of the middle of the range. It's fine, it's not overcooked. And I think if it breaks out, there really are no sellers here. If you look at a 10 year chart, you can see the stock has done nothing for a long time and now all of a sudden attracting a lot of attention because look at this. Because they've cleaned up all of these ancillary businesses focused on the best business, which is electricity.

[Scott Wapner]

Any comment from you?

[Shannon Kosha]

No. I mean this is a clearly answer a name that has a, I would hate to say a stranglehold but you know there is a, that how you

[Scott Wapner]

feel as a customer.

[Josh Brown]

It's a regulated facility. Right.

[Shannon Kosha]

It's a regulated utility.

[Scott Wapner]

Tell us how you really feel.

[Shannon Kosha]

Has continued to be consolidation. But I think delivery is an important aspect of this and I think Josh hit on that.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. All right, we'll take a break. Coming up next, we do have more committee stocks that are on the move today. We will document them for you. Dow still holding on to a near 500 point gain. And what is a strong snapback certainly for the NASDAQ which is up 2 and a third percent back after this. Lots of stocks on the move. Let's see KKR if we could please. Profits, revenues up, insurance growth, asset management, stocks up nicely. You own the stock Brin Talk.

[Brin Talk]

Yeah. If you pull up a one year chart it tells a better story. You know, I sold Apollo flat. I'm down on this stock stock. That one year chart tells the story. This has not been an issue with their fee related earnings. It's sentiment around private credit, lack of monetizations. So I'm in it right now. I think it can creepy crawler higher to maybe like 115 or so. But they're still in the doghouse. Just because there's bad sentiment around it

[Scott Wapner]

down on the space in general.

[Brin Talk]

Yeah, because I think that the like the otf, like the BDC is I Own those are performing very well. But the market hates these stocks and so it's like you need those to come back together, which I think is going to take time. But I do think the lack of monetizations and still the concerns that I think are somewhat misplaced around private credit will just keep a ceiling on these names. And so I want to respect the market and don't want to fight it. I'm still in it, but I reduced Apollo because I don't think these are going to be great performers the rest of the year.

[Shannon Kosha]

I don't think it's just private credit either. I mean fundraising has slowed and it's clearly going to be more challenging. Challenging over the next couple of years and not being able to continue to fill that till at the same rate is going to create questions about appropriate valuations for these names.

[Scott Wapner]

What about so far? Let's look at that stock. The target got cut today at Mizuho to 22. It was 29, quote. What are bears saying and why they could be wrong? Why they could be wrong? Incremental margins remain strong at 31%. So the no upside margin reflects a deliberate investment in new high potential lines. You own the name. What do you think?

[Malcolm Etheridge]

Yeah, this stock just turned in a stellar report card in my opinion. The 40% revenue growth over last year and the street is still treating it like it's the old student loan company 4ish years ago. That was a one trick pony. I mean they've got very deep relationships with their customers. They mentioned on this recent call that they increase the number of products each customer uses significantly. And so I think there's a missed opportunity here. I think there's probably still some overhang though from that short report from Muddy Waters.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, what about CBRE the target to 175 from 168 outperform at Evercore for anyone. That one.

[Brin Talk]

Was he watching the show yesterday? Because I said it should go to 175.

[Scott Wapner]

That was maybe analysis was.

[Brin Talk]

Yeah, they had great, great numbers. I mean they're growing five consecutive quarters of earnings growth well over 18%. They grew 30% core earnings. It should be at 170 stock.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, we have the setup as well. I know you know, Apple, Amazon getting all the oxygen today. Live Nation though is after the bell.

[Josh Brown]

What do you think this is like the holding of mine that I worry least about? If you think about trends for live entertainment, it's the same thing I was saying in an earlier block of the show about the airlines. It's. It's bulletproof and this is the best operator in the space and, and they have all the mind share, the best facilities, the best shows, the best tours. So I don't go into these earnings reports worried at all. It's just a question of how much expectations have already been built in. In the case of Live Nation, it's had a pull the chart back. It's had an incredible year once again under Michael Rapinoe and I expect that to continue as far as the eye can see.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, we, we could be getting closer. In case you hear a bell to the Jersey mics open of the ipo, can we talk about, you know, the fact that they, they did fail on their deliverables here at the New York Stock Exchange today and you were forced to sit and I wonder about the emotional damage as you watch the. The two tables of subs being liquidated in front of your eyes. Yeah, like the rest of us, frankly. But you know, you did mention it in the break.

[Josh Brown]

It's like a waking nightmare. There's two folding tables loaded with sandwiches. There's a whole line of traders just take one after another and I'm sitting here talking about Reddit. I don't even know what's going on even. It's so not like me. I should have ripped the mic.

[Scott Wapner]

Need a hand signal like grab me.

[Steve Liesman]

Crappy one.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, so again we're waiting on the first trade just in case you do hear that bell go up. We'll do finals next. I see on the bell. Apple, Amazon, obviously. I just thought of a new segment. Josh Brown's best subs in the market. What will be at the top the list? What's at the top of the list?

[Josh Brown]

Oh, I think. I think my hero tied with ans Deli. Probably in my local neck of the woods. But I'm willing to give Jersey.

[Scott Wapner]

What is it called?

[Josh Brown]

Jersey.

[Scott Wapner]

Mike, don't act like you don't know.

[Josh Brown]

We don't have, like we don't really have this.

[Scott Wapner]

I'm sure you got a jersey Mike.

[Josh Brown]

They'd be run out of town.

[Scott Wapner]

They're getting really close by the way. It could happen by the time we get off the air. Shortly after that.

[Josh Brown]

23, 24 a share. Is that this?

[Scott Wapner]

Well, it priced at 23. I don't know what the range is. I can't see 21 to 21 and a half. What's your final trade, Malcolm?

[Brin Talk]

Financials info.

[Josh Brown]

Amazon.

[Scott Wapner]

Yes, Amazon reporting. Wow, Amazon's up 5%. Yeah, maybe that's one. Expectations of a cloud of a good cloud number. Here we go, right? Well, we'll see. We'll count you down to it when I see on the closing bell at three the exchanges now you've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

[Julia Boorstin]

All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftimereportdisclaimer Snoring, gasping for

[Steve Liesman]

air during sleep Daytime sleepiness I'm Shaquille o' Neal and this shouldn't be anybody's experience. Ask your doctor about Zepbound Tirzepatide, the first and only FDA approved prescription medicine for moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea in the adults with obesity.

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