Halftime Report Podcast Summary: "Trading Apple at All-Time Highs"

Date: October 20, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Panelists: Josh Brown, Joe Terranova, Jenny Harrington, Amy Raskin, with guests Steve Kovac and others

Episode Overview

This episode centers on Apple’s historic run to a new all-time high, as the company approaches a $4 trillion market capitalization. With mega-cap tech earnings on the horizon, Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee dissect the momentum behind Apple’s rally, the broader market’s sentiment, and what comes next for major market sectors. The conversation navigates bullish and skeptical viewpoints, features insights on AI developments at Apple, and discusses portfolio positioning amid shifting sector leadership.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Apple’s Record Run and the “Mag 7” Narrative

• Apple Nears $4 Trillion Market Cap: The company’s shares surged nearly 5%, driving the NASDAQ higher. The upgrade cycle for iPhone 17 is cited as delivering the strongest smartphone sales growth since the pandemic, reigniting investor excitement.
  • “Maybe it’s the fact that just the company has finally given people a reason to buy a new phone to upgrade after a number of years.” — Scott Wapner (00:59)
• Market Sentiment Shifts: Joe Terranova highlights a shift from muted expectations in 2024 to renewed optimism as Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft rebound. Power in mega caps is now setting the tone for the market.
  • “It’s a rebuilding of positioning. It’s the moving of sentiment from somewhat muted to more bullish. And you see it reflected in the price action and strong technicals.” — Joe Terranova (03:00)
• What’s Behind the Rally? Panelists speculate if Tim Cook's diplomacy, China’s rebound, or new product excitement are fueling the rally—or simply all of the above. Multiple analyst upgrades are noted, including Loop Capital’s upgrade to "buy" with a $315 target.
  • “The analyst community is just super positive this morning—Evercore, Loop Capital... The 17 lineup is blowing past all of their expectations.” — Steve Kovac (04:08)

Skepticism and Valuation Debate

• Bearish View: Jenny Harrington expresses skepticism, noting Apple’s relative underperformance versus the market and an unattractive 32x PE with single-digit earnings growth forecasts:
  • “If you look through all the Mag 7, Apple has the worst setup trading at 32 times earnings… Everything else out there has either a better PE or better earnings growth ahead of it.” (06:41)
• Momentum vs. Fundamentals: Despite a 30% rally since August, Harrington and others question sustainability without a new "must-have" product beyond hardware improvements.
  • “From a new iPhone perspective the story is good. But from a valuation fundamental analysis perspective, it’s boring.” — Jenny Harrington (07:56)

Apple’s Secret AI Project and Longer-Term Catalysts

• AI Buzz: Josh Brown reveals rumors of Apple’s internal AI chatbot (“Veritas”), under development for employee use and speculated as the missing AI breakthrough for consumers. If integrated into Siri and iPhones, it could be a major catalyst.
  • “The only thing that could [move the stock higher] is a ChatGPT that Apple develops and releases... That’s the thing that I think nobody has in their numbers.” — Josh Brown (09:40)
• Steve Kovac Confirms: That Veritas is being tested but not intended for public release as a standalone app—instead, Apple aims to bake cutting-edge AI into Siri, possibly rolling out in early 2026.
  • “It’s going to be baked right into Siri... Not saying they’re going to achieve it, but what they’re trying to do right now is turn Siri into ChatGPT.” — Steve Kovac (10:36)

Broader Tech & Market Positioning

• Apple’s Defensive Moat: Amy Raskin argues Apple is the “ultimate staple,” justifying a premium multiple due to brand strength, cash flow, and customer loyalty, even if near-term growth is modest.
  • “Look at Costco at 50 times. So I think [Apple]... plodding along... good stewards of capital buying back a lot of their shares.” — Amy Raskin (12:05)
• Portfolio Strategy: The discussion pivots to whether now is the time to de-risk or rotate out of tech as indices hit highs, with some urging “incremental de-risking” while others maintain a bullish chase for performance.

Sector Rotation & Under-the-Surface Leadership

• Defensive Leadership: Recent outperformance of utilities, healthcare, and staples isn’t necessarily bearish, argues Josh Brown. Utilities specifically are driven by surging AI-sector demand for electricity, representing a “bull market in electricity.”
  • “Utilities are going through a once in 100 years rerating... This is the bull market in electricity. It has nothing to do with people becoming risk off.” — Josh Brown (18:44)
• Broadening Market: Market strength is seen in industrials, healthcare, and international stocks; not just in mega-cap tech, suggesting healthier breadth.
• ETF Trends: The overweighting of tech in the S&P 500 (now 35%) is at a record. Investors seek diversification with alts like gold, bitcoin, and cash for uncorrelated exposure.
  • “Tech is 35% of the S&P 500. Meanwhile, defensive sectors... are at a 35-year low.” — Todd Sohn (38:20)

Credit, BDCs, and Regional Banks

• Credit Cycle Concerns: The panel examines warnings about leveraged loans and business development companies (BDCs). Quality loan standards and management rigor are crucial in selecting BDC exposure.
  • “There’s a few out there that are great. There’s a lot out there where all of the commentary before is going to be perfectly true.” — Jenny Harrington (24:21)
• Regional Banks: Credit issues have rippled into regional banks, but panelists differentiate between struggling small caps and more stable mid-cap regionals.
  • "I don't think you could universally assign that the regional banks themselves are a sale... or going to deteriorate to the regard that we believed last week." — Joe Terranova (31:45)

Technical Views and Stock Picks

• American Express (Amex): Highlighted as the best technical setup in the financial sector. Its aggressive buybacks, quality management, and premium consumer base are cited as strengths.
  • “Every one of [the top 10% of households] has an Amex platinum card in their wallet… American Express has one of the most aggressive long term share buyback plans… This is the best chart in, in all of the financial services stocks.” — Josh Brown (32:28)
• Final Trades:
  • JP Morgan — Josh Brown’s pick for long-term financials leadership (45:01)
  • Illumina — Amy Raskin, citing competitive overhang lifted (45:09)
  • Columbia Banking — Jenny Harrington, value and unjustly hit in last week’s panic (45:17)
  • XBI and Alibaba — Joe Terranova (45:26)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Market Sentiment Overrides Fundamentals:
  “If you want to be a serious bear right now, I suspect your timing needs to be impeccable or the fundamental setup needs to change.” — Quoting Goldman’s Tony Pascarello (13:28)
• AI as Apple’s Next Big Thing:
  “The thing that none of us are saying out loud but is like buzzing like wildfire among Silicon Valley people is that Apple has a secret project underway for employees only...” — Josh Brown (09:20)
• Incremental Caution:
  “It’s okay right now to be cautious, and I think it’s okay to be apprehensive. And what you can do... is incrementally de-risk.” — Jenny Harrington (15:50)
• Tech Overweight at Historical Extreme:
  “If you own a large cap blend fund like the S&P 500... your exposure to technology sector stocks is at an all time high.” — Todd Sohn (38:20)
• Caution on Hot IPO Names:
  “Neither of these companies has any meaningful revenue or earnings or anything like that. So what they trade on is announcements and partnerships and deals.” — Josh Brown on Archer Aviation & Joby (40:42)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:59] Apple’s rally and iPhone 17 sales ignite excitement
• [03:00] Investor sentiment shift and implications for mega caps
• [04:08] Steve Kovac on analyst upgrades and China demand for Apple
• [06:26] Jenny Harrington's skeptical view on Apple’s valuation
• [09:20] Josh Brown reveals Apple’s secret AI project (“Veritas”)
• [10:36] Steve Kovac clarifies AI product integration into Siri
• [12:05] Amy Raskin on Apple as a defensive stock
• [13:28] Market risk and portfolio strategy (Goldman’s quote)
• [18:44] Comparison of utilities/defensive leadership - “bull market in electricity”
• [22:47] Credit and BDC market overview and risks
• [31:45] Joe Terranova on regional bank exposures
• [32:28] Josh Brown’s technical analysis of Amex
• [38:20] ETF Edge: Tech overweight and alternatives in portfolios
• [40:42] Josh Brown on high-fliers Archer Aviation & Joby
• [45:01] Panelists’ final trade picks

Conclusion

This episode of Halftime Report offers a dynamic look at Apple’s record-setting moment and the broader market environment shaped by mega cap tech. It features spirited debate over valuation versus momentum, a peek behind the curtain at Apple’s potential AI plans, practical portfolio strategies, and insights into sector leadership and credit markets. Listeners receive both actionable ideas and context for the persistent “MAG7” dominance, as well as timely warnings to not get lost in the euphoria.

For more, tune in to Halftime Report weekdays at 12pm ET on CNBC or the podcast feed for in-the-moment market action and expert insights.