CNBC Halftime Report — Trading Strategies as Volatility Rises

Date: March 13, 2026
Host: Scott Wapner
Panel: Steve Weiss, Kevin Simpson, Bryn Talkington, Jim Lebenthal, Leslie Picker, Christina Partsinevelos

Overview

This episode of the Halftime Report focuses on market volatility amidst escalating geopolitical tensions, especially the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, surging oil prices, and their ripple effects on equities, private credit, and trading strategies. Panelists deliver candid views on how they're navigating the uncertainty, provide sector-specific insights (financials, industrials, tech), and discuss actionable strategies such as covered calls. The episode also covers key upcoming events, including Nvidia’s GTC, implications of rising mortgage rates, and expectations for the Fed’s response.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Market Under Pressure — Strait of Hormuz & Oil

• [00:55-04:31]
  • Scott Wapner sets the tone with the market’s struggle for a “foothold,” noting early rally fizzled as oil reversed higher, nearing $97/bbl.
  • Steve Weiss:
    • “Stocks are going to have a hard time finding footing…as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.” [01:08]
    • Cautions on catching falling knives, advises keeping cash on hand: “This is not a trading market.” [02:28]
    • “If you keep oil prices elevated, you have the chance—and you hear the R word more and more—of recession.” [02:13]
    • Differentiates strategies for long-term vs. short-term: “If you buy the right stocks, they’ll be higher in a reasonable timeframe. But if you focus shorter, intermediate, it’s not so easy to determine.” [02:52]
  • Bryn Talkington:
    • “Time is the enemy around energy prices in the war.” [04:34]
    • Identifies S&P 6600 level as technical support amid turbulence; expects more volatility, advises selling covered calls to capitalize on high premiums:
      • “This is a great time to be selling calls. That’s been a good strategy all year long.” [05:45]

2. Geopolitical Risk and Market Psychology

• [05:52-10:26]
  • Jim Lebenthal:
    • “It comes down to the Straits of Hormuz. When the market feels they’re open...markets will go much higher.” [05:56]
    • Warns of lasting damage if the crisis extends beyond March: “After that there is lasting damage…if you start to see pre-announcements from companies, that will worry us.” [06:16]
  • Panel debates analogies with 2007-08, with Kevin Simpson pushing back:
    • “I don't think the backdrop is the same…when you have a geopolitical event, it's easy to make comparisons.” [07:46]
  • Weiss & Wapner highlight risk/reward as unknowable in current conditions.
    • “That’s exactly the point.” (Weiss on uncertainty) [09:23]
    • Wapner: “The longer the Strait stays closed, the more stagflationary markets will turn.” [10:00]
    • Bearish positioning is rising, but no panic yet—risk appetite dampens but “the de-risking is not yet at extreme levels.” (Barclays) [09:44]

3. “Trump Put” Debate & Investor Sentiment

• [10:26-11:45]
  • Bryn: “We may agree with the Trump put...but do the Iranians?” [10:26]
    • Skeptical U.S. political resolve matters for Middle East leadership.
  • U.S. economic tolerance for prolonged war is low, further supporting the case for containment.

4. Private Credit Risks & Opportunities

• [13:38-18:26]
  • Weiss: Raises concerns about fund redemption risks in private credit:
    • “The headline risk is…when all these funds stop allowing redemptions...when a big name like BlackRock says no more redemption—that’s when things get really, really ugly.” [13:15]
    • Feels safer in large, well-managed shops; warns of “lunacy” among smaller, less regulated funds.
  • Leslie Picker (Correspondent Update, [14:29]):
    • Despite recent pain in alt asset managers (Ares, Blackstone both up 4% today but sector down 20% recently), demand for private credit endures among surveyed advisors.
    • “Defaults are rising among private credit borrowers but still below crisis levels.” [15:17]
    • Highlights risk of payment-in-kind loans masking underlying distress: “That can is getting kicked down the road.” [15:46]
    • “There’s just this disconnect...maybe the sell-off in public markets versus the redemptions versus, you know, a survey ... showing people still allocating to the space.” [16:13]
  • Bryn: Defends Blue Owl’s tech fund; stresses the importance of manager selection:
    • “Top decile private credit manager did 12%. The bottom decile did 4%...you’ve got to separate wheat from chaff.” [17:13]

5. Financials & Sector Rotation

• [18:26-19:43]
  • Jim: Takes other side of financials trade, sees recent declines as healthy reset, not doom:
    • “If one thinks we’re going into a recession, then yes, financials are not your call. ...But the economy is in very good shape.” [18:56]
    • “All you’re seeing is a valuation reset in the big names...from this reset, with a strong economy, you’re likely to see good returns.” [19:36]

6. Industrials, Covered Calls & “Investable” Market

• [20:00-21:38]
  • Kevin Simpson: Bought more Caterpillar recently:
    • “Writing covered calls in a volatile market is a phenomenal way to add alpha to your portfolio.” [20:15]
    • “It's not a tradable market...but I think it is an investable market.” [20:29]
  • Weiss: Still owns and may add to CAT given its valuation correction.

7. Tech & Software: Rebounds, Rotations, and Risks

• [21:38-24:43]
  • Morgan Stanley positive on software: “Rallying cry ... better defensibility vs. AI risk.” [21:38]
  • Kevin: Bought Intuit and Palo Alto
    • “TurboTax, QuickBooks...you're probably not going to leave it. ...We picked it up at $400. Stock’s up 10%.” [22:23]
    • “You need more cybersecurity–that’s kind of basic.” [22:56]
  • Adobe: CEO stepping down triggers post-earnings stock drop.
    • Jim:

      “The fears are overblown...sales growth continues to be just a little above 10%...free cash flow yield right now is 11%. They’ve retired 10% of shares outstanding in two years.” [24:46]

      • Sees buyback as support for long-term value.
    • Weiss: Presses Jim on reliance on buybacks for growth: “The growth is based on financial engineering and the growth of the company has significantly declined.” [28:17]

8. Nvidia’s Upcoming GTC & Tech Catalysts

• [31:35-35:34]
  • Christina Partsinevelos details expectations for GTC:
    • CEO Jensen Huang expected to unveil new Grok-technology AI chip, high-speed optical networking, and “Nemo Claw” software platform [31:56].
    • “Options market is pricing in a 4% move; any forward visibility from Nvidia could be the real catalyst.” [33:21]
  • Bryn:
    • “I continue to sell calls...because the stock just can’t get above [200].”
    • Expects highlights on Vera Rubin chip, advances in AI and robotics [34:10].
  • Kevin: Added to Nvidia into the event; now core position:

    “It’s almost like this stock has been pushed to the back burner. For that reason, we’ve made this our number one position...210 to $250 is our base case.” [34:58]

  • Weiss (on Meta’s delayed AI model): “Not concerned. This is just typical in the tech world...rather than launch a product that isn’t ready, Meta’s choosing not to do that. I’d add here if it wasn’t already a full position.” [36:00]

9. Fed Policy Preview

• [39:32-41:44]
  • Steve Liesman:
    • The Fed will likely hold steady, watching oil-driven inflation and “thankful” it paused hikes previously:
      • “They wouldn’t mind going into this oil price spike being a little bit above neutral to put whatever pressure would come from inflation into the core.” [39:56]
    • “Old Tom Barkin concept: in the fog, you pull over. I think that’s where the Fed might be.” [40:45]
    • Only one rate cut remains priced in for 2026, significant uncertainty persists.

10. Housing Market Under Pressure

• [42:35-44:23]
  • Diana Olick: Mortgage rates have spiked to 6.41%, highest since Sept ‘25, hitting affordability and sentiment.
    • “Lennar’s margins shrunk...persistent headwinds: high rates, constrained affordability, cautious consumer sentiment, plus geopolitical uncertainty.”
  • Jim: “Housing just can not catch a break.”
  • Kevin: On Home Depot: “If you're not going to buy it yet, I wouldn't twist your arm on that one.” [44:23]

11. Earnings Setups & Final Trades

• [45:29-end]
  • Micron (MU) preview:
    • “If they don’t nail the number, it could be a sell-the-news event. But expectations are going to be met and surpassed.” (Kevin) [45:32]
  • Final trades:
    • Bryn: GPIQ (equity income strategy, sell calls on NASDAQ) [46:33]
    • Jim: Citigroup — sees IPO unlocking value [46:40]
    • Kevin: Nvidia — “core position for 2027 and beyond” [46:53]
    • Weiss: Meta — “downside risk is probably 600, but likely to bounce” [47:03]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Weiss: “This is not a trading market and my regret is that it’s prone to doing stupid things. ...Keep your hands in your pockets.” [02:28]
• Bryn: “Time is the enemy around energy prices in the war.” [04:34]
• Jim: “I don’t know how that gets solved in any short time frame. ...I look at stocks like Home Depot and I want to get into it, but I just can’t.” [44:10]
• Kevin: “Covered call writing in a volatile market is a phenomenal way to add alpha.” [20:15]
• Weiss: “When a big name like BlackRock says no more redemption—private credit—then things get really, really ugly.” [13:15]
• Leslie Picker: “Defaults are rising among private credit borrowers but still below crisis levels.” [15:17]
• Wapner: “The longer the strait stays closed, the more stagflationary markets will turn.” [10:00]
• Simpson (on Nvidia): “It's a 10% allocation. We’re very excited. If it goes to 200...that’ll be awesome.” [34:58]
• Christina Partsinevelos: “Any forward visibility from Nvidia could be the real catalyst here for this stock.” [33:21]

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• Geopolitical risk drives markets: [00:55–05:52]
• Bloomberg analogies & probability debate: [07:00–10:26]
• Private credit stress & demand: [13:38–18:26]
• Sector allocations—financials, industrials: [18:26–21:38]
• Software/tech trades: [21:38–24:43]
• Adobe CEO exit discussion: [24:43–29:20]
• Nvidia GTC & tech preview: [31:35–35:34]
• Fed policy preview: [39:32–41:44]
• Housing/mortgage rates hit: [42:35–44:23]
• Micron set up & final trades: [45:29–47:07]

Tone & Takeaways

The tone is realistic, risk-aware, but opportunistic for long-term investors—panelists are diversified in conviction and candor. The group emphasizes flexibility, patience, and premium harvesting strategies (e.g., covered calls), while maintaining skepticism over market-timing amid unpredictable macro shocks. The panel strongly recommends manager quality and risk discipline, whether in private credit or public equities.

For investors navigating rapidly changing markets, this episode provides both sobering context and practical strategies, with a healthy mix of realism and tactical ideas for turbulent times.