CNBC Halftime Report: Trading the Market Volatility 10/16/25

Host: Scott Wapner
Panelists: Josh Brown, Carrie Firestone, Malcolm Etheridge, Bill Baruch
Date: October 16, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of CNBC's Halftime Report, led by Scott Wapner, dives into the core of recent market volatility. Although the week began with substantial swings, markets remain on track for gains, especially for the Russell 2000 and gold. The panel analyzes the return of volatility, takes stock of the current earnings season—especially for banks and technology companies—and discusses sector moves, the outlook on IPOs and M&A, private credit concerns, and the breakout in gold and biotech stocks. The team dissects investor sentiment, retail conviction, and what the recent action means for portfolios.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Volatility & Staying the Course

• Volatility is Back: Despite headline-driven swings (shutdowns, trade tensions), underlying earnings trends remain strong. The S&P and Dow turned negative, but the Russell 2000 is having its best week since 2024 (+5%), and gold is at record highs.
• Bank Earnings as a Beacon: Strong Q3 reports from banks (e.g., JP Morgan) are cited as evidence of broad economic resilience, with consumer strength and opportunity in segments such as M&A.
  • Quote:

    “The consumer, the ‘resilient consumer,’ ... nothing that transpired during the course of last quarter and nothing they're seeing on a forward looking basis tells you that is changing at all.”
    —Josh Brown (02:34)

• Why Remain Bullish? Raised tech earnings estimates, robust M&A activity, and IPOs reinforce the case to “avoid the noise.”
  • Quote:

    “Why would you look at this market and say, you know what, I want to make a hard pivot and do something totally different than what's working?”
    —Josh Brown (04:37)

2. IPO & Deal Flow, M&A Strength

• New Listings & Deals: IPOs are picking up after a prolonged lull; 150+ IPOs so far this year, with more expected, and significant M&A activity (especially in health care and tech).
  • Quote:

    "There have been a number of companies that look to be filing their IPO soon. I think that's going to continue through the year."
    —Carrie Firestone (05:17)

• Market Resilience: Investors are looking past shutdowns and trade wars; robust risk appetite as evidenced by retail trading data.

3. Investor Sentiment & Retail Conviction

• Retail Call Buying: Unprecedented conviction, with demand for call options outpacing puts for 24 consecutive weeks—tied for the longest streak ever.
  • Quote:

    “Retail radar from JP Morgan tells a very similar story ... +$6.5bn coming in versus money coming out from retail. That already exceeds a strong year-to-date average ...”
    —Scott Wapner (08:23)

4. Portfolio Strategy—Adjustments and Rotations

• Gradual De-Risking:
  • Many panelists reduced large tech weights (Alphabet, Meta, Amazon) before earnings; cash being rotated into small-caps, industrials, and select undervalued names.
  • Bill Baruch: Added back to S&P & IJR (small caps) as they rebounded post-selloff; sees valuation risk concentrated in a few mega-cap names but not extreme.
  • Carrie Firestone: Trimmed AMZN, META, GOOGL to maintain diversified portfolios; newly added to Roper Technologies (industrial) and increased stakes in UnitedHealth, CoStar, Waste Connections, Wabtec, and Applied Materials (32:50).
• Crypto as Risk Gauge:
  • Crypto markets showed sharp declines during market stress, functioning as “gut check” instruments for global risk appetite outside regular trading hours.
    • Quote:

      “We now have these gut check instruments that trade 24/7 in the crypto markets ... That's where that risk-off appetite was being expressed.”
      —Josh Brown (11:40)

5. Tech Earnings & AI Spend

• Expectations Remain High:
  • Street has upgraded growth estimates for technology sector earnings from 15.9% to 20.9% YoY since June.
  • Oracle cited for embedding 600+ AI agents in its software, driving customer value and efficiency, e.g., 70% reduction in manual work for financial crime investigation (15:00).
  • Debate: While AI and cloud spending are strong, panelists trimmed Oracle (Malcolm Etheridge) and are watchful of overexposure to single big clients (OpenAI, for Oracle).

6. Software & AI—Salesforce Debate

• Uncertainty Over SaaS Disruption:
  • Salesforce’s outlook is closely watched: slow realization of AI-driven revenue/profit enhancement, concerns over decelerating enterprise headcount, and competition from upstart AI tools threaten legacy SaaS models.
  • Quote:

    “There's a macro cloud hanging over the Salesforces of the world ... people don't think there's going to be an expansion in headcount at companies even if the economy stays good.”
    —Josh Brown (20:58)

7. Private Credit & Credit Cracks

• Recent Bankruptcies:
  • Tricolor and First Brands bankruptcies have put the spotlight on private credit risk, with fears of contagion growing after new losses at Zions and Western Alliance.
  • Jamie Dimon’s warning:

    “I shouldn't say this, but when you see one cockroach, there are probably more.” (24:05)

• Panel View:
  • Still appears idiosyncratic, not systemic—yet. Investors are on alert, and questions are increasing about “loosey goosey” lending practices. Historical metrics (like junk bond spreads) not as telling this cycle.
  • Dividends in the BDC (business development company) space are being cut, and scrutiny has risen on private credit vehicles (BIZD ETF).

8. Gold & Miners—Breakout Discussion

• Gold Hits Record Highs:
  • Both gold and the gold miners are rallying, experiencing the best year on record for the metals group (+91% in 2025).
  • Josh Brown's Best Stock:
    • AngloGold Ashanti: Stronger dividend clarity, addition to the Russell indices, and relative lag vs. peers means it could have “gas in the tank.”
    • Cautions against chasing, recommends waiting for pullbacks, but sees potential for a prolonged cycle.
      • Quote:

        “If you think gold is going to 5,000 ... I still think it's early enough that there's some gas in the tank.”
        —Josh Brown (37:55)

9. Sector Breakouts: Biotech

• Biotech Resurgence:
  • XBI & IBB ETFs at 52-week highs.
  • Reasons: end of significant patent overhangs, promise of AI-enabled drug discovery, growing IPO and M&A activity.
  • Carrie Firestone remains cautious, owning only Amgen (for now), but sees this as the start of renewed interest in the sector.

10. Bond Yields & Flight to Quality

• 10-Year Falls Below 4%:
  • Yields on 10- and 2-year Treasuries are hitting post-April lows; move corresponds with worries around banks and credit quality.
  • Panel Context:
    • Falling yields signal rising bond demand, generally interpreted as “risk-off.” Panelists monitor for sustained moves rather than daily jitters.

11. Private Equity & Alts Managers Under Pressure

• Names like KKR, Apollo, Blue Owl Slide:
  • Despite generally positive comments from their peers, private equity and private credit firms “can’t catch a bid.”
  • Quote:

    “The management fees that those guys collect are astronomical, and that's what really matters. But I think the fear over private credit can't be overblown ... That's on the rise, it's the highest level since 2021.”
    —Malcolm Etheridge (49:39)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On picking moments to de-risk:
  “It’s prudent to just reduce [large positions] ... earnings growth is likely to slow somewhat. It’s still going to be decent, but we’ve had such enormous gains.”
  —Carrie Firestone (13:28)

• On private credit warning signs:
  “It’s an isolated incident until there’s 10 of them. Then there’s ... What is it? 10 isolated incidents? What are we talking about?”
  —Josh Brown (27:11)

• On AI as a sea-change for software:
  “If AI is going to give your people the ability to work around these large SaaS platforms and write your own programs, that’s like literally a sea change in the way we think about purchasing this type of software.”
  —Josh Brown (22:37)

• On the nature of today’s markets:
  “We’re always in a react first, ask questions second kind of marketplace ... and when you start talking about the bond market and credit... people just have PTSD.”
  —Scott Wapner (50:22)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening Market Rundown & Earnings Outlook: 01:01–04:50
• Sentiment, IPOs, Retail Conviction: 05:17–09:51
• Panel Portfolio Moves & Rationale: 09:51–14:28
• Big Tech & AI Spend: 14:53–19:06
• Salesforce and Software Disruption Debate: 20:04–22:37
• Private Credit & Broken Lending Practices: 23:04–28:56
• Committee Portfolio Changes/Stock Purchases: 31:45–34:46
• Gold/Miners Breakout & Best Stock Pick: 37:35–41:41
• Biotech Sector Breakout: 42:05–45:23
• Bond Yields Drop & Credit Fears: 46:45–49:39
• Final Thoughts & Rapid-fire Closing Picks: 51:23–52:46

Panel Tone & Language

• Cautious optimism dominates: Panelists emphasize prudence in portfolio management and recognize risks while remaining constructive—especially on earnings power and pockets of innovation (AI, biotech, gold).
• Practical, professional guidance: Discussion remains grounded, with personal portfolio actions and tactical moves explained in detail.

Utility for Listeners

This episode offers actionable clarity on:

• Why fundamentals trump noise amid volatility
• How major investors are reallocating to balance risk and opportunity
• Sectors to watch as potential cycle leaders (gold miners, biotech, select tech/AI)
• Evolving warnings in private credit and what to monitor as a possible source of systemic stress

Recommended for: Active investors, professional advisors, and anyone trying to cut through the day’s market noise for what matters most for their portfolio.

Note: Time references are in MM:SS format from the episode. Advertising and non-content sections have been omitted for clarity.