CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary
Episode: Trading the Massive Market Day 10/30/25
Host: Frank Holland (in for Scott Wapner)
Committee: Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Jim Lebenthal
Special Contributors: Steve Kovach, Mackenzie Sigalos, Mike Santoli
Overview
On this episode, the CNBC Halftime Report team analyzes a turbulent market day, with notable weakness in major tech stocks following earnings and rotation into financials and industrials. The discussion centers on whether this marks a key inflection point or just a pause in tech’s dominance, dissecting critical earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and previewing Apple and Amazon. The panel also addresses evolving investor expectations, company spending, the health of the consumer, and the shifting market landscape.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Market Snapshot & Tech Selloff
- Markets in Flux: S&P and Nasdaq are down (Nasdaq over -1%), while the Dow is up (+200 pts) amid rotation out of tech (01:00).
- Inflection Point or Normalcy?
- Joe Terranova: “No, I do not believe that this is an inflection point. I think this is just a return to a degree of normalcy off of what has been a really strong outperformance from... Mag7, AI-adjacent.” (01:49)
- Stat: S&P Equal Weight’s underperformance vs. S&P at largest gap since 1990s. Today, equal weight up ~0.4%.
Mega-Cap Tech Earnings
Microsoft
- Earnings Recap: Beat in all three segments, commercial bookings up 111% YoY, AZURE up 39% (whisper number was 40%).
- Stephanie Link: “For me, I looked at Microsoft and ... I am now an owner today... Down 3.54% when it opened this morning. I started adding to a position.” (03:16)
- Cloud Focus: RPO (remaining performance obligation) up 51% YoY (~$300B)—more growth likely.
- Why the Drop? Market expected a bigger Azure beat based on recent history; thus, a "sell the news" reaction.
Meta (Facebook)
- Earnings Recap: Revenues +26% YoY, beat expectations; ad impressions +14%, price/ad +10%; Op margins at 40%.
- Stephanie Link: “I added to that this morning too because I think down 12% is absolutely silly... The higher expenses are leading to very strong growth.” (05:06)
- Spending vs. Results: Expenses/investment are high but justified by robust monetization.
- Valuation: Now at 21x forward earnings, “cheaper than Alphabet, 21 times versus 24 times.” (08:40)
Alphabet (Google)
- Earnings Recap: Search, cloud (up 34%), and YouTube all beat expectations; strong backlog (up 45%, part fueled by Anthropic deal).
- Jim Lebenthal: “This is a multi-cylinder engine... clearly shows the search business is growing really quite well... A lot of things going right at Alphabet.” (06:36)
- AI & Search Controversy: Conflict between prior Apple testimony (Safari search queries down) and Google’s data now resolved in favor of Google.
Capex & Debt: The Tech ‘Spend’ Debate
- Meta’s Bond Issuance: $25B in new bonds to fund data center buildout and AI investments (09:26–12:25).
- Market Reaction: Concern over rising capex & shifting to corporate debt, echoing 1990s tech behaviors, but justified if investments drive growth.
- Stephanie Link: “I’m not happy that they’re spending more, but if it wasn’t leading to results, that’s where I would actually sell the stock.” (10:21)
- Jim Lebenthal: “This is just corporate finance, by the way...what they teach in Business School…” (11:25)
Rotation Out of Tech, Into Financials & Cyclicals
- Market Breadth: S&P Equal Weight up — banks & financials leading, best earnings in sector, M&A activity accelerating (Huntington Bank), yield curve getting steeper (15:16).
- Stephanie Link: “After you listen to Powell yesterday... you're going to see a steeper yield curve and that should absolutely help the net interest income story for all of these banks.” (15:16)
Earnings Previews: Apple & Amazon
Apple (w/ Steve Kovach, 16:12)
- Focus: iPhone 17 momentum, first quarter of launch inclusion, services revenue expected >$100B for full year.
- China: Pent-up demand, government subsidies aiding iPhone 17 sales rebound.
- Tailwinds: Trade policy, tariffs reduction already priced in; revival from China key for next leg.
- Joe Terranova: “What it [Apple] needs most is…that revival from China. I think we’re seeing the early signs of that.” (17:56)
- Jim Lebenthal: Expresses caution about valuation, but recognizes “pent up demand” for a super-cycle upgrade. (19:11)
Amazon (w/ Mackenzie Sigalos, 20:30)
- Main Concern: Cloud business losing AI workloads to Microsoft/Google; 15-hour outage last week raised infrastructure worries.
- Ad & Retail Strength: Ad market share 30%, retail is strong, margins set to improve.
- Joe Terranova: “It is the disappointment of 2025... cloud is trailing its peers to the degree that is becoming somewhat troubling…” (21:35)
- Stephanie Link: “No, I mean, I think the consumer business is very strong and the margin improvement will continue...” (22:50)
- Stock Valuation: At 13x EBITDA vs. historical average of 18x, possible re-rating ahead.
Consumer Stocks & Economic Health
Chipotle
- Big Miss: Shares -14% after cutting sales outlook; same-store sales guide down 3rd straight quarter, margins missed (27:47).
- Stephanie Link: “Mea culpa...they've lost their way. I'm not sure this leadership team is the right leadership team...I sold out of it.” (27:47)
- Broader Weakness?: Panel debates if Chipotle’s woes are company-specific or indicative of broader consumer pressure (28:50–31:37).
Other Moves (Gap, Deckers)
- Stephanie Link: Sold both for different reasons: took profits (Gap), no catalyst ahead (Deckers) despite operational strength (31:41).
Notable Quotes on Broader Market Rotation
- Mike Santoli: “It tells you the market is trying to get out of this pressure from a few of the max 7 names through rotation... financials have had a bid...” (38:28)
- Leaders on the day: Visa, JPMorgan, Berkshire Hathaway, Eli Lilly—“non-tech quality” driving S&P.
Other Noteworthy Stock Moves
- Cleveland Cliffs: Down 11% on $1B equity raise; Jim Lebenthal says it’s prudent to reduce debt, focus now on tariff policy and auto production pickup (35:05).
- ServiceNow: Strong demand, guidance raised—Joe sees it as a potential inflection but needs more proof (36:33).
- KLA Corporation: Pullback on guidance, but semi-equipment “sweet spot” remains intact (37:10).
- Teradyne (Steph): Up 20% post great quarter, positively pre-announced (42:00).
- Phillips 66 (Joe): Refiners are best energy sector play currently (42:53).
Earnings Setups (Beyond Big Tech)
- Coinbase (Steph): Small position for crypto exchange exposure; could buy more if it sells off post-earnings (43:59).
- Striker (Joe): Health care lacks momentum, but remains steady (44:22).
- AbbVie (Jim): Expecting consistent, “middle of the fairway” quarter (44:47).
- CBOE (Joe): Strong quarter expected given options volume growth (45:02).
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- Stephanie Link on Meta: “Down 12% is absolutely silly...not happy at all about expenses, but down 12% after you see this kind of growth? So you’re now at 21 times forward estimates for 21%-plus growth.” (06:09)
- Jim Lebenthal on Alphabet: “This is a multi-cylinder engine that is firing on all cylinders.” (06:36)
- Joe Terranova on Amazon: “It is the weak link in the Mag 7. It is the disappointment of 2025...” (21:35)
- Stephanie Link on Chipotle's Management: “I'm not sure this leadership team is the right leadership team and I do not want to be emotional about it, but I truly believe it.” (27:47)
- Jim Lebenthal: “If you don't want to go down the 10-year chart road with Jimmy...” (25:31)
Important Timestamps
- Market Snap & Tech Selloff Begins: 01:00–02:59
- Microsoft & Meta Earnings Dissection: 03:16–06:09
- Alphabet Discussion: 06:36–08:36
- Debt & Capex Debate for Mega-Tech: 09:00–13:01
- Sector Rotation Discussion: 14:46–15:57
- Apple Preview (Steve Kovach): 16:12–18:57
- Amazon Preview (Mackenzie Sigalos): 20:30–24:32
- Chipotle and Consumer Weakness: 27:47–31:37
- Market Rotation (Mike Santoli): 38:28–40:00
Final Trades (45:44)
- Jim Lebenthal: Cisco Systems — “many fundamental things going right…shares have great momentum.”
- Stephanie Link: Quanta Services — “very good earnings report...electric backlog up 15% sequentially. Electrification theme is still alive and well.”
- Joe Terranova: Trane Technologies — “Inflection point; positive momentum building.”
Takeaways
- The market is digesting hotly anticipated mega-cap tech earnings with skepticism, focusing on capex discipline even as companies show robust fundamental growth.
- Rotation into financials, banks, and cyclicals is emerging, with broadening beyond tech seen as healthy “normalcy.”
- Consumer stocks like Chipotle face idiosyncratic and possibly macro pressure.
- Value opportunities are discussed in Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon amid short-term turbulence.
For investors and market followers, the panel suggests that patience and broader perspective are warranted on both winners and underperformers.